Global Economic Monitor 220802

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: U.S. stocks slip, crude slides as soft data feed recession jitters

※   ISM PMI shows U.S. factory activity slowed in July

※   Crude plummets on demand worries

※   Energy, demand worries pull European stocks into the red

※   Dollar touches 6-week low vs yen

•   Europe: Europe’s Credit Fear Gauge Sees Biggest Monthly Drop Since 2019

•   Metals: Copper hits 4-week high but factory slowdown points to weak demand

•   Grains: Wheat, corn down as first grain shipment leaves Ukraine; soy down 4%

•   한국: 코스피, 외인·개인 매수에 보합권 마감…2,450선 지켜

[Indicators]

•   Europe·Asia Jul. Manufacturing PMI: World Factory Outlook Darkens With Weakening From Europe to Asia

•   OPEC Jul. Oil output: OPEC oil output rises in July despite outages - survey

•   US Jun. Construction spending: U.S. construction spending dives in June on single-family housing weakness

•   US Jul. Manufacturing PMI(ISM): U.S. Factory Growth Slowed in July on Decline in Orders

※   WSJ: U.S. Factories Are Far From Recession

•   Eurozone Jun. Employment: Euro zone unemployment flat at 6.6% in June as expected

•   Germany Jun. Retail sales: German retail sales fall by largest rate on record

•   China Jul. Home sales: China’s Home Sales Slump Further During Mortgage Boycotts

•   China Jul. Manufacturing PMI(Caixin): China's July factory activity grows at slower pace - Caixin PMI

•   India Jul. Manufacturing PMI: India's manufacturing PMI at 8-month high as easing price pressures lift demand

•   India Jul. GST collections: July GST revenue at ₹1.48 lk cr; up 28% YoY and second-highest since rollout

•   Brazil Jul. Balance of trade: Brazil posts $5.4 bln trade surplus in July, lower than expected

•   Indonesia Jul. CPI: Indonesia inflation jumps to 7-year high, c.bank unfazed

•   Saudi Arabia Jul. Crude exports: Saudi Crude Exports Jump to Highest in More Than Two Years

•   한국 6월 온라인 쇼핑: 늘어난 외부활동…6월 여행·레저 온라인쇼핑 ‘껑충’

•   한국 7월 무역수지: 7월 무역적자 46억7천만달러…넉달연속 적자 금융위기후 14년만

※   매경: 뛰는 에너지값에 속수무책…올해 무역적자 사상최악

※   매경: 고물가·고환율·고금리 속 韓경제 25년만에 쌍둥이 적자 위기

※   매경: 대중무역 휘청…반도체 나홀로 선방

※   한경: 中 빈자리 메우는 美·아세안·인도…바뀌는 수출 지형도

•   한국 7월 전력수요: 7월 전력수요 역대최고치...9년만에 비상경보 가능성

•   한국 7월 은행 정기예금 잔액: '돈 몰려온다'…5대銀 정기예금 700조 돌파

•   한국 7월 자동차 판매: 완성차 판매 5개월만에 반등 ‘기지개’

•   한국 8월 철근 가격: 철근價 3개월 연속 하락, 1년 치 상승분 모두 반납

[News]

•   WSJ: Nancy Pelosi to Visit Taiwan Despite Warnings From China

※   U.S. House speaker plans meetings with Taipei officials, raising prospect of increased tensions with Beijing

•   WSJ: Ukraine Grain Shipment Departs for First Time Since Russian Invasion

※   Ship leaves port of Odessa following deal aimed at easing the global food crisis

•   WSJ: Russia Redeploys Troops in Ukraine as Focus of Conflict Turns South

•   WSJ: From Pizzerias to Tech Startups, Ukrainian Refugees Trickle Into Europe’s Labor Market

•   WSJ: Manchin Touts Democrats’ Climate and Tax Bill, Which Draws GOP Criticism

•   WSJ: Dollar-Store Dinners and Vats of Shampoo Help Families Cope With Inflation

•   WSJ: Renters Finally See Market Starting to Cool After Record Growth

•   WSJ: Beijing Bets the House on Infrastructure

•   WSJ: Investors Fear Stock-Market Rally Will Be Short-Lived

•   WSJ: Market Mayhem Triggers Deal-Making Drought

•   WSJ: Nikola to Buy Battery Maker Romeo Power for $144 Million

•   WSJ: Inflation Is Everywhere—Even in TV Commercials

•   WSJ: Power Companies Enter Peak Hurricane Season Lacking Enough Transformers

•   WSJ: Self-Driving Truck Accident Draws Attention to Safety at TuSimple

•   NYT: Using Nuclear Reactors for Cover, Russians Lob Rockets at Ukrainians

•   NYT: U.S. will send another $550 million in arms to Ukraine.

•   NYT: Vast New Study Shows a Key to Reducing Poverty: More Friendships Between Rich and Poor

•   NYT: U.S. Drone Strike Said to Have Killed Ayman al-Zawahri, Top Qaeda Leader

•   NYT: ‘One miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation’: The U.N. chief issues a grim warning, citing war.

•   NYT: War, Climate Change, Energy Costs: How the Wheat Market Has Been Upended

•   NYT: What Remote Work Debate? They’ve Been Back at the Office for a While.

•   WP: Biden covid case highlights confusing CDC guidance on ending isolation

•   WP: Government workers feel inflation’s pinch as wages lag

•   FT: Bank of England considers biggest rate rise for more than 25 years

•   FT: Chipmakers battle for slice of US government support

•   FT: Wave of corporate exits sends chill through Chicago

•   FT: India could surpass China as world’s biggest minerals buyer, says economist

•   FT: Venture capital’s silent crash: when the tech boom met reality

•   FT: Alibaba to ‘strive’ to keep New York listing despite addition to SEC watchlist

•   Bloomberg: Here’s What the Six Key Official Indicators of US Recession Show

•   Bloomberg: Is the US Economy in Recession? Here Are Eight Offbeat Indicators to Watch

•   Bloomberg: Summers, Blanchard Say Waller’s ‘Soft-Landing’ Paper Has Errors

•   Bloomberg: There’s a New Way to See When the Economy Is Going Off the Rails

•   Bloomberg: Share of Consumers Spending More Than They Earn Rises on Inflation

•   Bloomberg: US Treasury Lifts Quarterly Borrowing Estimate to $444 Billion

•   Bloomberg: Democrats’ Oil Import Tax Would Violate Biden Pledge, Group Says

•   Bloomberg: Russia’s Slump in Oil Exports Abates, Moscow’s Revenues Go Up

•   Bloomberg: How the EU Will Allow a Slight Increase in Russian Oil Exports

•   Bloomberg: Germany Heading to Gas Emergency With Russia Keeping Nord Stream Flows Reduced

•   Bloomberg: Germany Has Three Months to Save Itself From a Winter Gas Crisis

•   Bloomberg: German Nuclear Plants Could Run Through Winter, Lobby Group Says

•   Bloomberg: ECB Says Oil-Price Hike to Cut Euro-Area Output by Just 0.8%

※   ECB: Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022

•   Bloomberg: Most Euro-Zone Consumers Didn’t Actually Save More in Pandemic

•   Bloomberg: China’s PBOC Pledges Stable Financing for Property Sector

•   Bloomberg: Shenzhen Ends Factory Bubbles for Firms: China Lockdown Tracker

•   Bloomberg: China’s Economy Deteriorated Further in July, Beige Book Says

•   Bloomberg: China’s Huge Trade Surplus Counteracts Outflow Pressure from Fed

•   Bloomberg: Iran Lawmaker Says Nuclear Talks Likely to Resume in Days

•   Bloomberg: US Sanctions Companies It Says Help to Transport Iranian Oil

•   Bloomberg: India Trying to Ease Inflation Below 7%, Finance Minister Says

•   Bloomberg: Argentina’s New Economy Minister Readies Plan to Boost Dollar Revenue

•   Bloomberg: Chaos in Bond Market Is Dangerous Side Effect of Inflation Fight

•   Bloomberg: ‘Problem Child’ 20-Year Bond in Focus for Treasury-Auction Plan

•   Bloomberg: Bitcoiners Are Trying to Redefine the Word 'Inflation'

•   Bloomberg: Gazprom Daily Output Hit Multiyear Low in July on Export Slump

•   Bloomberg: OPEC+ to Reveal Whether Biden Succeeds in Quest for More Oil

•   Bloomberg: Soaring US Diesel Exports Underscore Global Fuel Vulnerability

•   Bloomberg: EU Gas Unity Tested as Italy Drops Regional Benchmark From Bills

•   Bloomberg: Global Firms Halt Over $250 Billion in Financing Plans This Year

•   Bloomberg: Tesla Inks Battery Materials Deals With Two Chinese Suppliers

•   Reuters: Russia puzzled by Biden proposal to replace nuclear arms treaty

•   Reuters: U.S. considers crackdown on memory chip makers in China

•   Reuters: Russian central bank says economic downturn to deepen in Q3

•   Reuters: Myanmar junta extends emergency rule, cites need for stability

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Siemens Gamesa weighs around 2,500 job cuts - sources

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Big Tech should share Europe network costs, France, Italy and Spain say

•   Reuters: ANALYSIS-Fuel crisis cuts electricity in Bangladesh, sparking energy debate

•   AP: Bumps, bipartisanship in long fight for semiconductor bill

•   CNBC: Biden administration faces midnight court deadline to defend $350 billion of Trump’s China tariffs

•   CNBC: 3 charts show Europe’s unprecedented natural gas crisis

•   CNBC: Fed officials are pushing back against the market rally, and recession talk

•   MarketWatch: Will the stock-market rally turn into a selloff? This bond-market gauge could tip investors off

•   SCMP: Massive RCEP trade deal fails in areas where smaller bilateral pacts in Asia-Pacific shine

•   SCMP: Thousands of Shanghai’s small businesses struggle to survive as virus curbs remain a stumbling block

•   SCMP: China’s foreign businesses adapt by looking inward for talent as zero-Covid keeps expats away

•   SCMP: China releases plan to guide carbon-intensive industries to reach peak emissions by 2030

•   Nikkei Asia: Chip crunch eases for phones and PCs, but not for cars

•   Nikkei Asia: Russian sanctions threaten to make coal dirtier, more costly

•   Mainichi: Japan gov't panel agrees on another record minimum-wage hike plan

•   매경(P1): [알립니다] 세계지식포럼이 던진 화두, 미래흐름 5년 먼저 읽었다

•   매경: 기후변화·AI 전문가 대거 참석…공동번영 위해 머리 맞댄다

•   매경(P1): 원희룡 "투기과열지구 추가해제"

•   매경: 빼빼로 튀겼던 식용유, 이제 내차에 주유한다

•   매경: 韓배터리 3社, 북미 넘어 유럽으로 진격

•   매경: SK하이닉스, 고사양 CXL 메모리 샘플개발

•   매경: "8월에도 베어마켓 랠리…코스피 최고 2600 전망"

•   매경: 방산 떼고 건설 품는 한화, 3세 승계 작업도 속도낸다

•   한경(P1): 한국 최저임금 일본 넘었다…내년 韓 9620원 vs 日 9509원

•   한경(P1): [단독] 삼성전자, 2030년 '무인공장' 도입한다

•   한경: 자동차에 앤디 워홀 그림 그리는 로봇까지…세계는 무인자동화 열풍

•   한경(P1): 글로벌 바이오社·투자 빨아들이는 보스턴

•   한경: "연봉 3000만원 직장인, 소득세 27% 감면"

•   한경: 부부 공동명의 1주택, 18억 이하 땐 종부세 안 내

•   한경: 2024년 대학 입학인원, 40만명선도 붕괴…기업 인력난 심해진다

•   한경: '국민 재테크 상품' 홍보했지만…예금에도 못미친 뉴딜펀드 수익률

•   한경: 현대차의 미래 스마트시티…"모빌리티로 하늘과 땅 연결"

•   한경: "중국은 못 도와줘" 미국 '초강수'…한국 기업들 웃는다

•   한경: 경기침체냐, 아니냐…쓰레기 배출량·구리값으로도 알 수 있죠

•   서경(P1): [단독] 내년 예산 증가율 文정부 절반<5% 중반 이하>으로…'재정중독' 마침표

•   서경: 이대로면 3년뒤 나랏빚 1400兆…지출 마지노선 5%대로 묶는다

•   서경: 전세계 106개국 도입했는데…국회 넘기 힘든 '재정준칙'

•   서경: 건전재정 '대선 청구서'에 발목 잡히나

•   서경(P1): 서학개미, 3년만에 美주식 순매도

•   서경(P1): [단독] 녹물 설움 끝나나…여의도, 첫 정비구역 임박

•   서경: "투자도 철수도 쉽지않네"…기업들 '脫중국 딜레마'

•   서경: 저가 공세에 中 글로벌 점유율 60%…니로 EV도 '중국산 배터리' 장착

•   서경: CATL, 멕시코 공장 건설에 6.5조 베팅…해외 생산기지 늘려 '안방 호랑이' 탈피

•   서경: "美물가 연말에도 7% 안팎…연준, 연내 3번 모두 금리 올릴것"

•   서경: "美 기준금리 정점, 내년초 연 3.75~4% 예상"

•   서경: 철강 열연 가격 두달새 20% 급락…정유 정제마진은 ‘연중최저’

•   서경: “수소 R&D 선도” 에쓰오일, FCI와 연료전지 연구개발

•   서경: "우리 공장에도 AI 도입하자"…LGU+, 구독형 스마트팩토리 상품 출시

•   서경: 시멘트업체 줄줄이 값 올리나 …삼표 "내달부터 11.7% 인상" 통보

•   조선(P1): [NOW] 詩 쓰는 AI 작가, 대학로 무대 진출

•   조선(P1): 여기는 실리콘밸리? 독산동 스타트업입니다

•   조선: 정부법안 절반 국회에 막혀… “공무원 자부심? 그건 옛말”

•   조선: 5년간 13만 늘었는데 민노총 산하 전공노는 “공무원 더 채용해야”

•   조선: 차관보 연봉 1억2000만원… 9급 월급은 최저임금 근로자보다 33만원 많아

•   조선: 전기차, 배터리 값은 빼고 살 수 있다

•   조선비즈: 포스코·현대제철, 車 강판 가격인상 고수하는 이유는

•   조선비즈: ‘반도체 혹한기’ 삼성·SK하이닉스가 주목한 ‘클라우드’

•   조선비즈: IBM, 도쿄일렉트론과 세계 최초 3D 적층 기술 개발…“반도체 공급난 해소 기대”

•   조선비즈: 한·중 동반 성장 30년…교역 47배 양적 팽창, 질적 고도화 기로

•   조선비즈: 생애최초 LTV 80%로 높아졌지만 … “매수문의 없어요”

•   조선비즈: 高환율·高물가에도 ‘갤럭시Z폴드4’ 가격 동결… 대중화 승부 건 노태문 사장

•   조선비즈: 경제학자 절반은 이미 “스태그플레이션” 진단…하반기 소비 부진 ‘빨간불’

•   중앙: 유가 내리니 농산물이…배추 89% 오이 75%↑

•   동아(P1): 인기 상위 50개 단지도 1년새 거래 70% 줄었다

•   동아: 전문가 “내년 상반기까지 부동산 냉각기… 가격 급락 가능성은 작아”

•   국민(P1): 대형마트 의무휴업 10년, 폐지 않고 그대로 가나

•   국민: [단독] 다중채무 자영업자, 6개월새 13만명↑…경제위기 ‘뇌관’ 우려

•   머니투데이(P1): 내년 예산 650조 안팎?…"지역화폐 예산 빼 서민 돕는다"

•   머니투데이(P1): 당정 "반도체는 안보이자 경제 근간"...'초파격' 정책 시사

•   머니투데이: '이 남자' 변심에 481조원이···배터리·태양광 한국 기업들 웃는다

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 이창용 "물가 10월 정점…추가 빅스텝 배제못해" [경기·민생 해법 고민하는 정부]

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 얼어붙은 회사채 시장... 기업, CP로 자금 조달

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 변이 확산에도 해외여행 급증… 외국서 확진되면 ‘수백만원 폭탄’ [휴가철 코로나 주의보]

•   아시아경제(P1): 개미들 '삼전 탈출' 시작됐다

•   아시아경제(P1): [카플레이션 시대]여전히 비싼 중고차…인기차종-신차 '역전현상'

•   이데일리(P1): 공공기관 지방이전 시즌2…시작부터 '졸속' 우려

•   이데일리: 공공기관 옮겨도 인구 분산 '반짝 효과'…1차 이전 반면교사 삼아야

•   이데일리: '칩4' '3불' 중국 반발 거세…위기의 8월 온다

•   이데일리: 여름철 전력수요 급증에…8월 전력도매가 ‘급등’

•   연합: 코로나19 신규확진 11만명 안팎…4월중순 이후 최고치 예상

•   연합: 동학 개미 떠나나…증시 대기 자금 한 달 새 4조4천억원 줄어

•   연합: "비수기 기다리자"…고물가·코로나에 2030 '휴끌족' 늘어

•   더구루: [단독] 뉴스케일파워 '소형원전', 美NRC 최종관문 '통과'…두산·삼성·GS 원전사업 '탄력'

•   뉴스웨이: [단독]2024년 국내 최초 한국형 수소연료전지 '예인선' 상용화

•   전자신문: 발전용 연료전지, 올해 상반기까지 808MW…'숨 고르기'

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Robert J. Barro): Yes, the US Economy Is Likely in Recession

•   Project Syndicate(J. Bradford DeLong): Biden’s Summer of Legislative Love

•   Project Syndicate(Joschka Fischer): The End of Contemporary History

•   Project Syndicate(Kenneth Rogoff): Fiscal Policy Should Return to Fundamentals

•   Project Syndicate(Antara Haldar): One Small Step for Manchin, One Giant Leap for Mankind?

•   Project Syndicate(Anatole Kaletsky): Why Are Financial Markets So Complacent?

•   FT(Editorial Board): Nancy Pelosi’s ill-conceived visit to Taiwan

•   FT(Rana Foroohar): Biden’s surprise win will bring economic as well as political benefits

•   FT(Philip Stephens): After Brexit the Tories still cannot escape EU red tape

•   FT(David Sheppard): he UK has an energy security problem but does not want to admit it

•   FT(Ivan Krastev): The EU is losing control of events on its conflict-ridden periphery

•   NYT(Peter Coy): Supply-Side Economics Isn’t Just for Republicans Anymore

•   WP(Marc A. Thiessen): The Inflation Reduction Act is anything but

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): New Chips Act Could Become a $280 Billion Boondoggle

•   Bloomberg(Mohamed A. El-Erian): Why Stocks Took a July Vacay From Fundamentals

•   Bloomberg(Bill Dudley): Wishful Thinking Won’t Help the Fed Beat Inflation

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): Saudi Arabia's Planned Neom Metropolis Makes China Evergrande Look Practical

•   Bloomberg(Conor Sen): Amazon Is Showing Us What a Soft Landing Looks Like

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Watch the Data Before Falling Too Hard for This Rally

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): The Bank of England Needs a Big Mac and Fries

•   Bloomberg(Liam Denning): Big Oil’s Changing Priorities: Elements by Liam Denning

•   Fox News(Ronna McDaniel): In Biden's America, 2022 midterm elections can't come soon enough

•   Fox News(Rebecca Grant): Biden team can't punt on North Korea missile program as Obama did

•   Fox Business(Larry Kudlow): Schumer reconciliation bill would stop the surge of business investment

•   Reuters(John Kemp): Hedge funds bullish on U.S. diesel as inventories dwindle