Global Economic Monitor 220815

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Global stocks rise, U.S. yields fall as inflation slows

※   Wall Street indexes close up

※   Benchmark 10-yields dip

※   European stocks end week higher

※   Oil prices sheds 2% a barrel

※   U.S. dollar index gains

•   Natural gas: European Gas Set for Fourth Weekly Gain as Supply Fears Persist

•   Natural gas: Asian Gas Prices Rally on Rush by Japan to Secure Winter Supply

•   Metals: Softer copper still set for weekly gain on peak-inflation bets

•   Grains: Chicago soybean futures bounce back after USDA forecasts massive U.S. harvest

•   한국: 코스피, 기관 '매수'에 이틀째 상승…2,520대 마감

[Indicators]

•   US Jun. Housing affordability: U.S. Housing Affordability in June Was the Worst Since 1989

•   US Jul. Export·Import prices: U.S. import prices decline in July for the first time this year

•   US Jul. Competition for homes: Homebuying competition falls to lowest level in 2 years

•   US Aug. Consumer sentiment: U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improved in August From Early Summer Low

•   US Weekly Rig count: U.S. oil & gas rig count falls for second week in a row - Baker Hughes

•   Eurozone Jun. Industrial production: Europe’s Industrial Resilience Surprises in Face of Risks

•   UK Q2 GDP: UK economy contracts as households cut spending

※   Second-quarter GDP falls by 0.1% as cost of living crisis takes hold and health sector output drops

•   UK Q2 Balance of trade: UK Trade Deficit Hits Record on Soaring Energy Costs

•   India Jun. Industrial production: IIP growth decelerates to 12.3 percent YoY in June

•   India Jul. CPI: Retail inflation eases to 6.71% in July, stays above RBI’s tolerance band

•   India Jul. Balance of trade: India's exports rise by 2.14% to $36.27 billion in July

•   Russia Jul. Q2 GDP: Russian Economy Shrinks in Quarter, but Less Than Expected

•   SCFI: 컨테이너선 운임 지수, 작년 5월 이래 가장 낮아

•   한국 주간 아파트 수급동향(부동산원): 서울 아파트 매수심리 3년1개월 만에 최저…14주째 하락

[News]

•   WSJ: FBI Recovered 11 Sets of Classified Documents in Trump Search, Inventory Shows

※   Trump allies claim the former president declassified the documents recovered from Mar-a-Lago

•   WSJ: Trump’s Final Days Draw Scrutiny as Handling of Documents Investigated

•   WSJ: China’s Xi Jinping Plans to Meet With Biden in First Foreign Trip in Nearly Three Years

•   WSJ: U.S. Lawmakers Travel to Taiwan on Heels of Pelosi Visit

※   Congressional delegation plans to meet with Taiwan’s president, other top leaders; visit comes shortly after Beijing ended days of military drills around island

•   WSJ: House Passes Democrats’ Climate, Healthcare and Tax Package

•   WSJ: Climate Bill’s Success Hinges on Timely Renewable-Projects Build-Out

•   WSJ: New Climate, Tech Bills Expand Role of Government in Private Markets

•   WSJ: Biden Has Passed a Big Piece of His Agenda. Will It Move Voters?

•   WSJ: Labor Shortage Is Vexing Challenge for U.S. Economy

•   WSJ: Biden Administration Response to Monkeypox Outbreak Was Slow, Officials Say

•   WSJ: U.S. Secretly Bolstered Security at Federal Buildings Against Possible Iranian Attacks After Soleimani Killing

•   WSJ: Author Salman Rushdie Stabbed Onstage at New York Event

•   WSJ: Salman Rushdie Is Talking After Being Taken Off Ventilator, Family Says

•   WSJ: Global Population Is About to Hit 8 Billion—and Some Argue It Is Near Its Peak

•   WSJ: Ukraine Readies Plans to Evacuate Civilians Amid Fighting Near Nuclear Plant

•   WSJ: Russia’s Goal in Attack on Nuclear Plant: Take the Electricity, Ukraine Says

•   WSJ: Ukraine Accuses Russia of Using Nuclear Plant to Blackmail West

•   WSJ: Ukraine Scrapes to Pay Its Soldiers as Western Funds Slow to Arrive

•   WSJ: Ukraine Strikes Key Bridge in Russian-Held Territory

•   WSJ: Ukraine’s Food Exports Slowly Pick Up Under Grain-Corridor Agreement

•   WSJ: France Risks Winter Blackouts as Nuclear-Power Generation Stalls

•   WSJ: Kenya’s Vote Count Slows to a Crawl as Election Candidate’s Allies Cry Foul

•   WSJ: Japanese Yen Attracts Hedge Funds as a Speculator’s Currency

•   WSJ: Earnings Season Shows Private-Equity Firms Bracing for Slower Fundraising

•   WSJ: Market Rebound Draws Wary Eye From Some Investors

•   WSJ: Wall Street, Like the Climate Bill, Bets on Both Green Energy and Fossil Fuels

•   WSJ: Best Buy Cuts Store Jobs to Help Boost Profits

•   WSJ: Premium Consumer Gadgets Rocked by Slowdown

•   WSJ: YouTube Advances Plans for Streaming Video Marketplace

•   WSJ: The Secret Talks That Could Have Prevented the Apple vs. Facebook War

•   WSJ: Travel Woes in Europe Won’t End This Summer

•   WSJ: Huawei Revenue, Profitability Continue to Slide Amid U.S. Restrictions

•   WSJ: For China’s Chip Champion, the Easy Part Is Over

•   WSJ: Relaxed CDC Covid Guidelines Seen as Boost for Return to the Workplace

•   WSJ: Saudi Aramco Posts 90% Jump in Profit, Generating Billions for Kingdom

•   WSJ: Faster Internet Is Coming to America—as Soon as the Government Knows Where to Build It

•   NYT: A Detailed Picture of What’s in the Democrats’ Climate and Health Bill

•   NYT: Mostly Bluster: Why China Went Easy on Taiwan’s Economy

•   NYT: China Sets Joint Air-Force Training With Thailand

•   NYT: For Electric Vehicle Makers, Winners and Losers in Climate Bill

•   WP: The new Wall Street tax key to Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act

•   WP: West Virginia coal country will test power of Democrats’ climate bill

•   WP: Falling global food and fuel costs offer poor countries little relief

•   FT: Rhine’s low water level blights German industry

•   FT: German nuclear operators push on with shutdowns despite rethink

•   FT: Germany must cut gas use by 20% to avoid winter rationing, regulator says

•   FT: European nations take differing approaches to shield citizens from surge in energy bills

•   FT: Spain says gas link to wider EU could be ready within months

•   FT: EU calls for end to war talk in Balkans ahead of Serbia-Kosovo meetings

•   FT: Six daunting challenges facing the next UK prime minister

•   FT: Drought declared across large parts of England

•   FT: UK’s debt and welfare payments bill set to soar by more than £50bn

•   FT: Behind the US fossil fuel industry lobbying for hydrogen

•   FT: China seeks to display its growing military might in Taiwan drills

•   FT: Taiwan greets Chinese military intimidation with parties rather than panic

•   FT: Colombia’s Petro pushes tax reform to fund ambitious social agenda

•   FT: Volatility investor warns of false dawn for US equities market

•   FT: China’s CATL cements car battery dominance with €7bn Hungary plant

•   Telegraph: Governor 'open to review' of Bank of England's mandate after criticism from Liz Truss

•   BBC: Evacuated twice in a summer as France's fires burn

•   Bloomberg: White House Nears Road Map on Taiwan Trade Amid China Discord

•   Bloomberg: Beijing Asks New Delhi to Reiterate ‘One China’ Principle

•   Bloomberg: Inflation and Supply Chain Strains Are Visible in These Datasets

•   Bloomberg: Charting the Global Economy: US Inflation Comes Off the Boil

•   Bloomberg: Fed Minutes May Reveal Inclinations on Size of Next Rate Hike

•   Bloomberg: US Climate Bill Keeps Hope Alive for Halting Warming at 1.5°C

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Barkin Urges Keeping Rates High to Avoid 1970s-Style Error

•   Bloomberg: US to Control Exports of Some Chip Tech to Cut ‘Nefarious’ Use

•   Bloomberg: Has Inflation Peaked? Why July 2022 Inflation Report Is Better Than You Think

•   Bloomberg: US Inflation Forecasts Marked Higher for 2023, Survey Shows

•   Bloomberg: Germany Heads for Engineering Pay Showdown Due to Energy Crisis

•   Bloomberg: Forget Inflation. Shrinkflation Is Sparking Fury in Germany

•   Bloomberg: ECB Will Limit Interest-Rate Hikes to This Year Only, HSBC Says

•   Bloomberg: European Recession Not ‘Imminent Risk,’ APG Chief Economist Says

•   Bloomberg: Ukraine Cut to Default by S&P After Creditors OK Debt-Payment Delay

•   Bloomberg: Core Inflation in Asia Shows Signs of ‘Manageable Stickiness’

•   Bloomberg: China Factory Orders Shrink in Ominous Sign for Global Outlook

•   Bloomberg: China’s Economic Recovery Tested as Covid Outbreaks Persist

•   Bloomberg: Shanghai Finds First Covid Cases in Week; Hainan Stays Elevated

•   Bloomberg: Shanghai Schools to Reopen After Classes Suspended in March

•   Bloomberg: Japan’s Return to Growth Unlikely to Derail Kuroda Easing Plan

•   Bloomberg: Modi Still Set to Win India Majority in 2024 After Ally’s Exit

•   Bloomberg: Turkey Boasts of Russia Trade Boom, Defying Push for Sanctions

•   Bloomberg: Latin America Led World Into High-Rate Era. Now It’s Stuck There

•   Bloomberg: Secret to Enduring Stagflation Sends Traders to Emerging Markets

•   Bloomberg: Europe Bond Rally at Risk as Complacency Sets in Over Inflation

•   Bloomberg: Bond Market Braces for Showdown With Traders Split Over Fed Path

•   Bloomberg: Investors See Global Central-Bank Policy Pivot in 2024 or Later

•   Bloomberg: Yuan, Rupee, Lira May Replace Dollar, Euro in Russia Wealth Fund

•   Bloomberg: Housing Slowdown Chills Investors Who Supercharged US Market

•   Bloomberg: BofA Says Cash Racing to Stocks, Bonds as Inflation Fears Ease

•   Bloomberg: Morgan Stanley’s Shalett Warns of ‘Head Fake’ in Inflation Data

•   Bloomberg: World Embraces Dirtier Fuels as Gas Hits Exorbitant Heights

•   Bloomberg: Cheap US Oil Undercuts Middle Eastern Crude in Top Demand Center

•   Bloomberg: Coal Giants Are Making Mega Profits as Climate Crisis Grips the World

•   Bloomberg: Codelco Turns to AI to Squeeze Out More Copper From Aging Mines

•   Bloomberg: Asia Analysts Predict Biggest Profit Drop Since Pandemic Started

•   Bloomberg: Tesla and Nikola Big Rigs Race for Up to $40,000 US Incentives

•   Bloomberg: Apple Finds Its Next Big Business: Showing Ads on Your iPhone

•   Reuters: Proposed U.S. corporate tax hike won't save global minimum tax deal

•   Reuters: Germany's finance minister says he opposes taxing 'excessive' profits

•   Reuters: India says no pressure on it to limit energy purchases from Russia

•   Reuters: Vietnam considers $58.7-billion high-speed railway - govt

•   Reuters: Exclusive: PDVSA pauses oil-for-debt shipments to Europe, wants product swaps

•   Reuters: China regulator says Alibaba, Tencent have submitted app algorithm details

•   Reuters: Analysis: China's sharper focus on military option for Taiwan raises risks with U.S.

•   CNBC: U.S. is ‘not going anywhere,’ Middle East envoy says, as China’s Xi expected to visit Saudi Arabia

•   CNBC: The other reason why food prices are rising

•   CNBC: Shipping container fees are falling around the world, but not in the U.S.

•   CNBC: How Sri Lanka’s economic collapse raises alarm bells for other emerging markets

•   CNBC: Consider these lesser-known semiconductor names poised to benefit from the CHIPS Act going forward

•   Fox Business: American workforce continues to shrink, falls 400k since March after nearly hitting prepandemic levels

•   SCMP: US takes China rivalry over African influence underwater, with high-speed internet cable spanning continents

•   SCMP: China expands power restrictions as heatwave drives demand to record levels

•   SCMP: China to prevent, punish economic data fraud ahead of key census by ‘building strong dams’

•   SCMP: South Korea’s delicate US-China balancing act as Chip 4, IPEF limits room for Seoul, Beijing to manoeuvre

•   SCMP: China population: district announces childcare allowance to help turn the tide on birth crisis

•   SCMP: India needs China for critical medicine ingredients, but an ambitious initiative aims to correct that

•   SCMP: Fifty million empty flats threaten to plunge China’s troubled property market further into crisis, warns think tank

•   SCMP: China building world’s largest ‘green hydrogen’ factory

•   Caixin: Cover Story: The Challenges Ahead for China’s Digital Yuan

•   Nikkei Asia: End of $3 ramen? Inflation squeezes Japan's comfort food

•   Nikkei Asia: U.S. tax credit for EVs out of reach for Toyota, most other Japanese cars

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan's tight COVID rules stand out as virus risk ebbs

•   Kyodo News: 42% of major firms see Japan economy slowing down on rising prices

•   매경(P1): 이재용 광복절 사면되자…고개 숙여 인사했다

•   매경: 족쇄 벗은 '이재용 뉴삼성'…'경제 구원투수' 이것부터 챙긴다

•   매경: 李, 등기이사 맡고 그룹 총괄지휘기구 재건할 듯

•   매경: '광복절 특사' 신동빈…롯데, 앞으로 이렇게 바꾼다

•   매경: 재계 일제히 환영…"투자 늘리고 일자리 창출에 매진"

•   매경: 장세주 회장도 사면…경영 복귀는 안할듯

•   매경(P1): [단독] 삼성화재 텐센트 중국 합작법인 설립

•   매경(P1): '사드갈등' 한발 물러선 中왕이

•   매경(P1): "약세장에 年9%가 어디"…돈 몰리는 배당주 [WEALTH]

•   매경: 다주택자, 매물 거둬들이는데…"종부세 덜 내도 파는게 유리" [WEALTH]

•   매경: 경제학자 한목소리 "尹정부, 국민신뢰 위기 처했다"

•   매경: 현대차 '로봇 AI연구소' 美보스턴에 들어선다

•   매경(P1): 이상기후 덮쳐…내년 2차 식량위기

•   매경: 50년간 차곡차곡 식량 챙긴 日…추락하는 자급률 쳐다만 본 韓

•   매경(P1): 전기트럭 시장까지 중국에 먹힐판…올해 판매량 2위

•   매경: '가성비' 中전기차에 국내시장 다 내줄판

•   매경: 은행 창구 갔더니…"대기시간 1시간", 무슨일?

•   매경: 4세 경영 포기한 이재용 뉴삼성…'이사회 중심' 개편 밑그림

•   매경: 앞으로도 재판받는 이재용…복권에도 '사법리스크' 여전히 남아

•   매경: [단독] 대세된 전기車·의류관리기, 내년 정부 산업통계에 포함

•   매경: 정기 예·적금에 돈 몰린다…한 달여 만에 34조원 불어

•   매경: 기지개 켜는 동학개미…이달 코스피 거래대금 10% 쑥

•   매경: 지금 빌라 샀다간 '깡통' 찰수도…거래마저 꽁꽁 얼었다

•   한경(P1): 한전, 또 어닝쇼크…상반기 14조 '최악 적자'

•   한경: 한전, 이대로면 올해 '30조 폭탄' 터진다…무서운 경고

•   한경(P1): 현대모비스 사업 분할…모듈·부품 자회사 신설

•   한경(P1): 국민연금 대체투자 200조 돌파

•   한경: 美, 거리두기 안 한다…韓 의료계도 "확진자 발표 중단하라"

•   한경: SK하이닉스, 美 반도체 공장 내년 1분기 '첫삽'

•   한경(P1): "코스피 매력없네"…외국인 비중 30%, 금융 위기후 최저

•   한경(P1): "4억 주담대, 月 155만원 냈는데…" 밤잠 못 이루는 영끌족

•   한경(P1): "문재인 정부 때처럼 빚 못내"…내년 장·차관 연봉 10% 반납

•   한경: 高금리에 인수금융 '꽁꽁'…"딜 혹한기 왔다"

•   한경: 회사채·여전채 시장 얼어붙자…우량기업 CP발행 100조 돌파

•   서경(P1): 尹 만난 유엔 사무총장 "北 완전한 불가역적 비핵화 지지"

•   서경: 폴더블폰 공개에도 아직 잠잠한 부품株 …"Z폴드 흥행이 관건"

•   조선(P1): [NOW] 동네 수퍼·정육점의 반격… 앱으로 손님 잡았다

•   조선: 삼성·SK, 美반도체법에 골머리… “中사업이 지뢰밭 됐다”

•   조선: 한국車협회, 美하원에 항의서한… “한국산 전기차에도 보조금 지급해야”

•   조선: [단독] 증권가로 번진 임금피크제 무효소송

•   조선: 휘발유보다 비싼 경유...L당 ‘100원’ 차이

•   조선비즈: 광복절 밤부터 다시 물폭탄 쏟아진다… 전국 최대 ‘150㎜’

•   조선비즈: “전셋값 오른다는 말 믿고 샀는데”… 갭투자자들의 눈물

•   조선비즈: 기후변화 경제학자 이지웅 교수 “그린플레이션? 비용 감당 없는 탄소 중립 달성은 불가능”

•   조선비즈: [단독] 부처 공공기관 통제력 높인다…자체 경영평가로 무능 기관장 퇴출 가능해져

•   중앙(P1): [주택 시장 거래 빙하기 오나] 매물만 쌓이고 거래절벽…주택 시장 경착륙 위기감

•   중앙: [주택 시장 거래 빙하기 오나] 전문가 75% “주택 시장 비관적”, 65% “장기침체는 없을 것”…2008년과 닮은 듯 달라

•   중앙: [주택 시장 거래 빙하기 오나] 미·영 집값 5~10%, 캐나다 20% 하락 전망…뉴질랜드 2분기 13년 만에 최대 폭 떨어져

•   중앙: [주택 시장 거래 빙하기 오나] 공인중개소 폐업 11% 늘어, 이사·인테리어업도 찬바람

•   중앙: [주택 시장 거래 빙하기 오나] 상반기 건축물 인·허가 11% 줄어, 대형 주택건설사 영업익 급감

•   중앙: [주택 시장 거래 빙하기 오나] “상한제·재초환 같은 반시장적 규제 풀어 주택 공급 늘려야”

•   중앙: [주택 시장 거래 빙하기 오나] 문 정부와 반대로 규제 푸는 윤 정부, 정책 충돌 효과 세심히 살펴야

•   중앙(P1): 수상한 해외송금 눈덩이…8조5000억원 넘는다

•   동아(P1): 충남 186mm 물폭탄, 부여서 2명 실종

•   동아: 삼성, 이르면 내달 대규모 신입 공채… 4대 그룹 중 유일

•   한국: 청년 7300만명이 실업… ILO "고용주가 미숙한 청년 기피"

•   국민(P1): 생존위협 VS 물가안정… 6990원 당당치킨 논란

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 러시아 공장 7월 내수 출하 0대… 고민 커지는 현대차

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 상가 매매가 오름세… 상반기 역대 최고가 달성

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 5만9790명 확진…전주의 1.12배

•   연합: 美의회조사국, 한미FTA 대해 "전자상거래 분야 보완 요구 있다"

•   연합: 한달새 17% 뛴 신선채소 가격…폭우 피해에 이달 더 오르나

•   연합: 대출 진정됐다지만…'금융위기 뇌관' 다중채무자 비중 '최고'

•   연합: 20·30대 빌린 전세자금 100조원 육박…금리상승 '직격타'

•   더구루: [단독] LNG 수급난 현실화되나…호주 FLNG 정기보수 내년으로 순연

•   더구루: [단독] 삼성전자, 3개월 만에 美서 또 홈런…5G 통신장비 공급계약

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta): How India Can Sustain Rapid Economic Growth

•   Project Syndicate(Sushanta Mallick, Brigitte Granville): What Does India Want from Russia?

•   Project Syndicate(Shlomo Ben-Ami): What Was Different About the Latest Gaza Fighting?

•   FT(Mark Carney): Governments must seize the chance to transform our unsustainable energy systems

•   FT(Katie Martin): Debt defaults start to loom more over markets

•   FT(Ole Hvelplund): Food waste can boost European energy security

•   FT(Satyajit Das): Next financial crisis likely to centre on private markets

•   FT(Oren Cass): The Chips Act debate shows how far the Republicans have moved

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): China’s Computer Chips Are Down

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Congress Is Fat and Happy as Tax Revenue Soars

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Britain’s Net Zero Lesson for the U.S.

•   WSJ(Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.): The U.S. Is Afraid of Losing in Ukraine—or Winning

•   WSJ(Andy Kessler): The Semiconductor Boondoggle

•   WSJ(Mark Penn): The Midterms Are Far From Over

•   WSJ(Kevin Rudd): Xi Jinping’s Reach Exceeds His Grasp

•   WSJ(Allysia Finley): China Gets a Great Leap Forward From Congress

•   WP(David Ignatius): A southern offensive opens in the Ukraine war

•   WP(Josh Rogin): Designed to compete with China, the Chips bill falls short

•   Bloomberg(Niall Ferguson): China's Demographics Spell Decline Not Domination

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): Cost of Victory: Converting a Wartime Economy to Peace

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Will Housing Prices Flatten — or Collapse?

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Inflation Expectations Are Too High No Matter How You Look at Them

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Markets Get Cold Feet Even as More Good News Rolls In

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): Bank of England Takes a $100 Billion Leap Into the Unknown

•   Bloomberg(Robert Burgess): Don’t Buy the Stock Rally? The Smart Money Does

•   Bloomberg(Julian Lee): Oil Demand Forecasts Aren't as Bullish as They Seem

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Bernstein): How the Democrats’ Tax and Climate Bill Finally Succeeded

•   Bloomberg(Lara Williams): Covid-19 Is Just the Beginning of the War on Viruses