Global Economic Monitor 220817

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Global stocks steady, U.S. Treasury yields rise as recession worries persist

※   S&P 500, Dow closes higher

※   Benchmark 10-year yields rise

※   Yield curve remains inverted

※   Dollar flat

※   Oil prices decline nearly 3%

•   China: PBOC Offers No Pushback as Yuan Tumbles to Three-Month Low

•   China: Chinese Builders Rally on Plans for State-Guaranteed Bond Deals

•   Natural gas: Gas markets leap on both sides of Atlantic as traders search for supplies

※   European economies threatened with recession while US prices leave era of shale abundance behind

•   Metals: Zinc hits two-month peak as Nyrstar shutdown stokes supply fears

•   Grains: Grains fall on U.S. weather, Ukrainian grain shipments

•   한국: 코스피, 경기 우려에도 0.22% 상승…2,530대로 올라

[Indicators]

•   US Jul. Industrial production: US Factory Output Increases for First Time in Three Months

•   US Jul. Housing starts: Home Building Fell Sharply in July as Costs Increased

•   Eurozone Jun. Balance of trade: Eurozone Posts Another Trade Deficit in June, Reflecting High Energy Costs

•   Germany Aug. ZEW economic sentiment: German recession fears deepen as economy is hit by ‘perfect storm’

•   UK Jun. Employment: Record wage drop signals more cost of living pain for UK households

•   India Jul. WPI: WPI inflation eases to 13.93 percent in July

•   한국 상반기 주택 매매 거래금액: 거래한파에…아파트 매매총액 10년전으로 '뚝'

•   한국 7월 수출입 운송비용: 美동부 가는 해상 수출 운송비 1년 전보다 64% 상승

•   한국 7월 COFIX: 코픽스 최대폭 상승... 주담대 금리 또 뛴다

•   한국 7월 주택가격(부동산원): 집값 폭락 오나…3년만에 최대 낙폭에 공급 쓰나미 예고

[News]

•   WSJ: Explosions Hit Russian Ammunition Depot in Crimea

※   Blasts prompt evacuations and come a week after explosions at an air base on the peninsula

•   WSJ: Crimea Strikes Show Ukraine Can Hit Further Behind Russian Lines

•   WSJ: Russian Withdrawal Brings More Shelling in Southern Ukrainian Town

•   WSJ: Ukraine Is Using These Long-Range Rockets to Repel Russia

•   WSJ: Judge to Weigh Unsealing Affidavit Behind FBI Search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago

•   WSJ: Biden Signs Bill Aimed at Lowering Drug Costs, Boosting Renewable Energy

※   Democrats are banking on the law to boost their November election prospects

•   WSJ: U.S. Approves Nearly All Tech Exports to China, Data Shows

•   WSJ: States Expand Sales-Tax Holidays as Americans Feel Price Increases

•   WSJ: U.S. to Buy Ukraine Grain, as Ship Traffic Increases

•   WSJ: U.S. Orders Historic Colorado River Cuts to Drought-Stricken Southwest States

•   WSJ: Jill Biden Tests Positive for Covid-19, White House Says

•   WSJ: Germany to Keep Last Three Nuclear-Power Plants Running in Policy U-Turn

•   WSJ: China’s Measures to Boost Economy Don’t Match Past Efforts

•   WSJ: China’s Ambassador Accuses U.S. of Exacerbating Crisis Over Taiwan

•   WSJ: Five Not-Quite-Impossible Things the Market Believes

•   WSJ: Drought Devastates U.S. Cotton Harvest

•   WSJ: Walmart Earnings Show Rise in Revenue as Higher Prices Lift Business

•   WSJ: Tencent Weighs Stake Sale in Chinese Delivery Company Meituan

•   WSJ: Amazon Workers File to Hold Union Election in Upstate New York

•   WSJ: Are You a ‘Digital Nomad’? European Locales Want Remote Workers

•   NYT: Why the 1 Percent Buyback Tax Doesn’t Scare Investors

•   NYT: A Frustrating Hassle Holding Electric Cars Back: Broken Chargers

•   NYT: The Quantify-Everything Economy

•   WP: Road to war: U.S. struggled to convince allies, and Zelensky, of risk of invasion

•   WP: Five takeaways from The Post’s examination of the road to war in Ukraine

•   WP: An interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky

•   WP: Chinese military ship docks in Sri Lanka over Indian, U.S. objections

•   WP: Google is training its robots to be more like humans

•   FT: Tory leadership policies: where do the candidates stand?

•   FT: Americans keep foot off accelerator despite falling petrol prices

•   FT: First grain ship to depart Ukraine since war appears to dock in Syria

•   FT: EU weighs up Iranian response to ‘final text’ on nuclear deal

•   FT: Odinga rejects Ruto victory in Kenyan presidential election

•   FT: Brazil’s other deforestation: has the savannah farming boom gone too far?

•   FT: EU digs for more lithium, cobalt and graphite in green energy push

•   FT: US junk bond market in powerful rebound on easing inflation worries

•   FT: Sovereign debt architecture is messy and here to stay

•   FT: BHP announces record cash return on surging coal prices

•   FT: Can plastic-eating enzymes solve the recycling problem?

•   Bloomberg: Chipmakers Are Flashing More Warnings on the Global Economy

•   Bloomberg: Chipmakers’ Pandemic Boom Turns to Bust as Recession Looms

•   Bloomberg: Asia Exports Slip Into Deeper Downturn as Tech Boom Goes ‘Plop’

•   Bloomberg: US Economy Faces ‘Lot of Uncertainty’ in Coming Year, White House’s Deese Says

•   Bloomberg: Bill Gates and the Secret Push to Save Biden’s Climate Bill

•   Bloomberg: Remote Work Is Hurting Productivity, New York-Area Firms Say

•   Bloomberg: Most US Companies Plan Hiring Freeze, Layoffs, Freelancers in Economic Slowdown

•   Bloomberg: European Power Prices Reach Records as Industry Starts to Buckle

•   Bloomberg: UK Economists See Growing Recession Risk With Jump in Inflation

•   Bloomberg: China Readies More Policy Support to Stimulate Growth If Needed

•   Bloomberg: Chinese Premier Li Urges Provinces to Boost Pro-Growth Measures

•   Bloomberg: ‘Too Little, Too Late’ China Rate Cut Spurs Call for More Moves

•   Bloomberg: China Facing Power Supply Threat From Drought in Sichuan

•   Bloomberg: China Covid Cases Near Three-Month High, Raising Threat of Curbs

•   Bloomberg: Indonesia Aims to Shrink 2023 Budget Gap as Covid Risks Wane

•   Bloomberg: Argentina Plows Ahead With Utility-Subsidy Cuts Key to IMF Deal

•   Bloomberg: Here are Five Ways Singapore Could Increase Taxes on the Rich

•   Bloomberg: Incorrect Economist Views Help Traders Bet on Data

•   Bloomberg: No China Stimulus Good Enough for Stocks Fixated on Covid Curbs

•   Bloomberg: No Negative Rates, Less Need for Cash: Euros Return to the ECB

•   Bloomberg: ECB Data Strengthen Case to Follow Fed’s Lead for Funding Rates

•   Bloomberg: Barclays Sees Credit Pain in Return to 1970s Inflation Regime

•   Bloomberg: Jim Chanos Says Market Believes Fed Will Ease in Early 2023

•   Bloomberg: BofA Survey Shows Investors No Longer ‘Apocalyptically’ Bearish

•   Bloomberg: Bond Markets Bedevil Fed by Actually Easing Financial Conditions

•   Bloomberg: Graphite in EV Batteries Creates Conundrum Under US Climate Bill

•   Bloomberg: Five Things That Biden’s Climate Bill Will Change for Automakers

•   Bloomberg: Car-Charging Investment Soars, Driven by EV Growth and Government Funds

•   Reuters: Russia says 'no need' to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine

•   Reuters: Russia's Gazprom warns European gas prices could climb a further 60%

•   Reuters: The disappointing economic backdrop to China's policy dilemma

•   Reuters: Analysis: Trapped cash mangles China's policy plans

•   Reuters: Lula, Bolsonaro officially enter campaign season as they court voters

•   Reuters: Sri Lanka will not extend emergency as protests tail off

•   Reuters: Sri Lanka faces looming food crisis with stunted rice crop

•   Reuters: Analysis: Loosening financial conditions threaten central bank inflation fight

•   Reuters: Analysis: As economy wilts, Argentina's Massa seeks to sow hope with farm chiefs

•   CNBC: Putin slams U.S., claims it wants to drag out war in Ukraine and provoke China

•   CNBC: Consumers are expected to have spent slightly more in July, but Prime Day may have boosted sales

•   CNBC: Asia’s inflation has peaked compared with major economies in other regions, Morgan Stanley says

•   CNBC: The U.S. supply chain is now facing two trade hurdles

•   CNBC: Apple and Meta headsets could face a big challenge: Sticker shock

•   CNBC: Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel says the market bottom is in and a ‘soft landing’ is still possible

•   CNBC: Nuclear waste recycling startup wants to solve the ‘ball and chain’ problem holding back nuclear

•   MarketWatch: Afraid you missed the stock-market bottom? History says curb your FOMO.

•   Fox Business: Here's how experts say Dems' inflation bill will increase energy prices

•   SCMP: As China’s energy crisis closes factories, how much is it affecting the economy?

•   SCMP: US-Taiwan trade talks get boost after 28 years, as frayed China ties trump US$40 billion trade deficit

•   Nikkei Asia: Confrontation to conflagration: Asia's six likeliest wars

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan poised to stop fully tracking COVID cases

•   Nikkei Asia: Toyota, Apple suppliers hit by China blackouts amid heat wave

•   Nikkei Asia: China can't afford to counter the CHIPS Act -- yet, experts say

•   Nikkei Asia: Chinese factories flock to Mexico, crossing U.S. border to avoid tariffs

•   Economic Times: Inflation to remain elevated with a return to sub-6% not likely before Feb 2023: Kotak report

•   매경(P1): 5년간 270만가구…주택공급도 '민간 주도'

※   기재부: 제2차 부동산 관계장관회의 - 국민주거 안정 실현방안 발표

•   매경: GTX A 2024년 6월 이전 조기개통…수혜지역은?

•   매경: '공공임대' 확 줄인 尹정부…文정부와 결정적 차이는

•   매경: 서울 도심 10만가구 재건축·재개발…강남·여의도 기대감 더 커져

•   매경: 시세보다 30% 싸고, 5년 살면 팔아도 된다…청년원가주택 자격조건은

•   매경: "당장 시장영향은 제한적…두고봐야"

•   매경(P1): 中서 잊혀지는 한국산…삼성 갤럭시는 점유율 0%대 굴욕

•   매경: "韓기업 생산기지는 옛말" 첨단산업 경쟁자된 한중관계

•   매경: 對中 중간재 수입 10%P 늘때…韓 중간재 수출 5%P 줄었다

•   매경: G2갈등·사드·칩4…민간 경제교류 늘려 정치리스크 극복해야

•   매경(P1): "대우조선 독자생존 어렵다"…BCG, 3월 산은에 초안 제출

•   매경: 급여 5000만원인데, 상반기에만 46억 받아간 증권맨은 누구?

•   매경: '361억·332억 받았다' 카카오 전 대표들 스톡옵션 등 보수총액

•   매경: 소상공인 직접대출 부실 눈덩이…작년 연체액 4년새 14배 급증

•   매경: 공정위 "기업 방어권 강화하겠다"…조사과정에 '이의제기' 절차 신설

•   매경: 뼈깎는 구조조정 통했다…두산그룹株 '웃음'

•   매경: 개미 몰린 삼성전자…소액주주 600만명 시대

•   한경(P1): "도 넘었다"…화물연대, 인화물질 들고 하이트진로 본사 점거

•   한경(P1): [단독] 서울대도 심각한 위기감…베트남에 분교 설립 추진

•   한경: 문과 기피에…외고, 정원 미달 속출

•   한경: 韓총리 "애 낳으면 얼마 준다 이런식으론 저출산 해결 못해"

•   한경: 필수 교육 코스였던 '피아노'마저…저출산 '직격탄' 맞았다

•   서경(P1): 尹 "개도국 코로나 예방, SK바이오 백신 활용"…빌 게이츠 만나 지원 약속

•   서경: 파운드리 점유율 20% 진입이 첫 과제…美 투자 프로젝트 시동건다

•   서경: 삼성, 236단 낸드 연내 양산…기흥 R&D센터는 이르면 이번주 첫삽

•   서경: '경영 복귀' 이재용, 역대급 인적쇄신 예고

•   서경: 정부, 바이오 등 신산업 수출대책 이달 말 발표

•   서경: 전력도매가 통제에 횡재세 추진까지…“에너지 대란 부른다”

•   조선: 늙어가는 의사들… “10년내 수술대란 온다”

•   조선: 난임·저체중 신생아 늘고 있는데… 맡아줄 젊은 의사는 급감

•   조선: 中企 82% “경기 더 나빠지거나 지금과 비슷”

•   조선비즈: 삼성 저격한 샤오미, ‘벌러덩’ 논란 속 안방에서 폴더블폰 출시

•   조선비즈: 실적 안 좋은데 파업까지 가나… 르노·한국지엠 ‘골머리’

•   조선비즈: 삼성·LG, OLED 집중하는 이유 여깄네… 모니터·태블릿·자동차 수요 급증

•   조선비즈: 한은 추가 금리인상에도, 국채 금리 하락…“정부 예산 감축, 대출 금리 안정에 도움될 것”

•   조선비즈: “이자 드려요”… ‘완판’ 위해 안간힘 쓰는 분양업계

•   조선비즈: 갤럭시Z폴드·플립4 ‘두뇌’는 퀄컴 칩… 삼성 설계한 엑시노스의 ‘굴욕’

•   중앙: [View & Review] 반도체 초강대국 전략, 디테일이 성패 가른다

•   동아(P1): [단독]권영세 “北제재 부분면제, 美와 논의 가능”

•   동아: 연식 변경에 車값은 수백만원씩 올라… 하반기도 ‘카플레이션’

•   동아: 방역당국 “하루 확진자 내달초 33만명까지 갈수도”

•   문화: 직원 줄이고, 투잡 뛰고, 월급쟁이 유턴… 자영업자 ‘생존고투’

•   문화: 증시 회복 기미 보이자… ‘빚투’ 다시 증가

•   한국(P1): '지역소멸과의 전쟁' 최일선 지자체에, 정부 10년간 1조씩 지원한다

•   국민(P1): [단독] 尹, 실·국장급 인사 속도 주문… “검증 최소화하라”

•   국민: RE100 생존 문제인데 “한국은 공급량 태부족”

•   국민: 기업들, 직접 생산하거나 재생에너지 구매로 조달

•   세계: 미국에 투자 늘리는 한국기업들… 美 공급망 재편 영향?

•   한겨레: “장 섰다” 국외 원전 투자 늘리는 대기업들…시장 전망은?

•   한겨레: 재임 기간 시총 가장 많이 늘린 CEO는?

•   경향: ‘무개념’ 정부…못 팔게 돼 있는 국유재산까지 매물로 내놔

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 尹정부 출범 100일 경제정책전문가 10명중 8명은 ‘B이하’

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 삼성 반도체 인력 재배치… 설비부문 300명이상 뽑는다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 디스플레이업계, 새 먹거리로 VR·AR 찜했다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 유가 하락에 9월 항공료 저렴해진다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 브레이크 걸린 테슬라 4680배터리…빈자리 노리는 K배터리

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]이집트 원전 수주 ‘9부능선’ 넘었다…이달 말 계약 체결 ‘유력’

•   아시아경제: K-원전 13년만 쾌거…힘 실리는 ‘60조’ 수주전

•   아시아경제: 한전, kWh당 30원씩 밑지고 전기 판다

•   아시아경제: [철강재고 이상급증]원자재 호재 끝났다…가격 낮추는 철강사들

•   아시아경제: [철강재고 이상급증]비상경영 선언한 철강사…하반기 부진 우려 확산

•   아시아경제: 중국 의존도 낮추는 삼성...내년 7월부터 베트남서 반도체 부품 생산

•   이데일리: 고개 드는 코스피 낙관론…“10월까지는 완만한 상승”

•   이데일리: ‘상위 1%’ 2000만원 이상 초고과 월세 증가세…월세도 '양극화'

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 17만5765명 확진, 넉달새 최다…내일 18만명 육박

•   연합: 올해 상반기 주요 기업들, 작년보다 더 벌었다…매출 28% 증가

•   연합: "韓 상속세율 OECD 1위…상속세제 개편해 경영환경 개선해야"

•   연합: 3분기에도 곡물 수입가 상승…국내 식품가격 인상 이어질 듯

•   전자신문: 올해 원전 전력거래량, 7월까지 역대 '최대'

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Jim O’Neill): Holes in the Recession Story

•   Project Syndicate(Diane Coyle): Inflation’s Emotional Scars

•   FT(Chris Giles): Central bank independence is on the decline

•   FT(Katie Martin): Liz Truss’s inflation mandate

•   FT(Cat Rutter Pooley): The energy price cap is a relic of another era

•   FT(Jane Foley): Pound still suffers from the UK’s weak economic outlook

•   FT(Kathrin Hille): China’s chip breakthrough poses strategic dilemma

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): China’s Xi Jinping Economic Slump

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The ESG Investing Backlash Arrives

•   WSJ(Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.): The Trump-Biden Codependency

•   WSJ(David Neumark): The Least Effective Minimum-Wage Hike

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Why Republicans Turned Against the Environment

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Why We Don’t Have a Carbon Tax

•   NYT(Charles Harvey, Kurt House): Every Dollar Spent on This Climate Technology Is a Waste

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): Europe’s Next Ukraine Mission Is on the Home Front

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): China Surprise Data Could Spell R-e-c-e-s-s-i-o-n

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): European Credit Activity Is Primed to Roar Back

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): Can Xi’s China Correct Course on Covid — Like Vietnam?

•   Bloomberg(Aaron Brown): The Stock Market's Rebound Has History on Its Side

•   Bloomberg(Nir Kaissar): A 15% Minimum Corporate Tax Won't Raise Prices or Cut Wages

•   MarketWatch(Tiffany Wilding): It will be months before smaller rent increases show up in inflation data --- and this raises the risk of a hard landing for the economy