Global Economic Monitor 220811

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks rally, dollar falls on easing inflation

※   Wall Street rallies with Nasdaq leading gains

※   CPI was flat in July after rising 1.3% in June

※   In 12 months through July, CPI rose 8.5% vs 9.1% in June

•   Gasoline: Gas Prices Dip to $4 a Gallon for First Time Since March

※   WSJ: Lower Gasoline Prices Portend Higher Consumer Confidence, Affect Inflation

•   Natural gas: European Gas Rises as Rhine Crisis, Winter Outlook Pose Risks

•   Metals: Copper hits 5-week high after U.S. data undershoots, dollar slides

•   Grains: Corn, wheat futures extend gains on U.S. crop risks

•   한국: 코스피, 반도체주 약세에 2,480선 후퇴…삼성전자 '5만전자'로

[Indicators]

•   US Jun. Wholesale inventories: U.S. wholesale inventories gain revised lower in June

•   US Jul. CPI: U.S. Inflation Eased Slightly to 8.5% in July

※   Annual rate decelerated from four-decade high, as costs of energy, gasoline dropped

※   WSJ: How Inflation Hit Households in July: Higher Prices for Food, Electricity and Alcohol Consumed at Home

※   WSJ: Fed Likely to Want Further Evidence of Inflation Slowdown

※   WSJ: Fed’s Inflation Battle Is Far From Won

※   Reuters: Analysis: Softer inflation ‘huge relief’ for battered investors in U.S. stocks and bonds

•   US Jul. Fiscal account: Federal Budget Deficit Narrowed in July

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications(MBA): Wild swings in mortgage rates last week caused a rare surge in refinancing

•   China Jul. CPI·PPI: In China, Higher Consumer Inflation Masks Weak Demand

※   Consumer prices rose to the highest level in two years in July, but stripping out surging energy and food prices suggests slowing underlying growth

•   Japan Q2 Government debt: Japan's national debt tops 10m yen per capita for first time

•   Japan Jul. PPI: Japan's wholesale inflation moderates on easing global commodity pressure

•   Thailand Benchmark rate: Thailand’s Central Bank Raises Rate to Help Control Inflation

•   한국 7월 고용: 7월 취업자 82.6만명↑ 두달째 둔화…내리막길 시작되나

•   한국 7월 금융시장 동향: 회사채 시장 급랭에…7월 은행 기업대출 '사상 최대'

[News]

•   WSJ: Donald Trump Takes Fifth Amendment in New York Attorney General’s Probe

•   WSJ: As Ukraine Holds the Line in Donbas, Russian Fire Shatters Cities in Moscow’s Path

•   WSJ: Ukraine Mocks Russia After Explosions at Crimean Air Base

•   WSJ: Ukraine Wins Investor Approval to Pause Payments on Foreign Debts

•   WSJ: John Bolton Was Target of Assassination Plot by Iranian National

•   WSJ: Social Security Benefits Are Heading for the Biggest Increase in 40 Years

•   WSJ: Facing Russian Gas Cuts, Europe Dims Lights, Cools Pools and Shortens Showers

•   WSJ: Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit Threatens China-Australia Reset

•   WSJ: China PBOC Says Won’t Flood Economy With Excessive Liquidity

•   WSJ: Iran Has Begun Training Russia to Use Its Advanced Drones, U.S. Says

•   WSJ: The Place With the Most Lithium Is Blowing the Electric-Car Revolution

•   WSJ: Stock-Buyback Tax Helps Offset Cost of Changes to Inflation Reduction Act

•   WSJ: Disney Reports Earnings Surge, Adds 14.4 Million New Disney+ Users

•   WSJ: SoftBank to Reduce Alibaba Stake, Expects $34 Billion in Gains

•   WSJ: Truck-Driver Pay Rose 11% Amid Strong Freight Demand Last Year

•   WSJ: Foxconn Predicts Better Year Ahead but Flags Slowing Smartphone Demand

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Sells 7.92 Million Tesla Shares Valued at Nearly $7 Billion Amid Twitter Uncertainty

•   NYT: U.S. Insists It Will Operate Around Taiwan, Despite China’s Pressure

•   NYT: The Boy Bosses of Silicon Valley Are on Their Way Out

•   WP: A victory at whose expense? Climate activists grapple with political compromise.

•   FT: Hungary oil group pays fee to restart flow of Russian oil through Ukraine

•   FT: EU to end scrutiny of Greek economy after 12 years of turmoil

•   FT: Britain draws up plans to keep lights on this winter

•   FT: Investors watch for cracks in US consumer loan market

•   FT: Japan’s prime minister reshuffles cabinet as approval ratings fall

•   FT: Vestas hails US clean energy subsidies as breakthrough

•   Bloomberg: US Commerce Chief Hopes Chips Bill Spurs Up to $400 Billion in Investment

•   Bloomberg: Kashkari Flips From Fed’s Biggest Pre-Pandemic Dove to Top Hawk

•   Bloomberg: Fed Leaders, Unswayed by Softer CPI, See Rate Hikes Into 2023

•   Bloomberg: Summers Decries Tax Compromises by Democrats to Pass New Bill

•   Bloomberg: Rhine River Withers to Crisis Level as Europe Craves Energy

※   Shallow water to effectively halt barges at German waypoint

•   Bloomberg: Historic Drought Threatens to Cripple European Trade

•   Bloomberg: German Power Hits a Fresh Record as Energy Crisis Heats Up

•   Bloomberg: ECB Inflation Response Was ‘Firmly Grounded’ in Strategy Revamp

•   Bloomberg: BOE’s Top Economist Acknowledges Inflation Fight Will Slow Growth

•   Bloomberg: China's First White Paper on Taiwan Since Xi Came to Power — In Full

•   Bloomberg: Ex-PBOC Official Warns of Interbank Rates Being Low for Too Long

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Sees Blow to Taiwan Economy if China Trade Hit Persists

•   Bloomberg: Japan Cabinet Shift Indicates Ongoing BOJ Easing, Economists Say

•   Bloomberg: Bolsonaro Is Stepping Up His Radical Rhetoric in Election Run-Up

•   Bloomberg: Debt Issuers Wonder If ‘ESG’ Is Worth It as Skepticism Grows

•   Bloomberg: Big Oil Sees Boon of Climate Bill as Small Rivals Urge Halt

•   Bloomberg: Apple Inches Closer to Erasing 2022 Losses as Inflation Cools

•   Bloomberg: Robot Arms Are Replacing Shelf Stockers in Japan’s Stores

•   Reuters: Exclusive: U.S. rethinks steps on China tariffs in wake of Taiwan response -sources

※   President Joe Biden has not made a decision on the issue, officials said.

•   Reuters: Sweden tops France as Europe's largest net power exporter

•   Reuters: China calls U.S. 'main instigator' of Ukraine crisis

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Freeport LNG retracts force majeure, widening losses for gas buyers - sources

•   Reuters: Toshiba logs surprise quarterly operating loss as costs surge

•   Reuters: Explainer: How could the new U.S. corporate minimum tax affect companies?

•   Reuters: Analysis: China investors hedge U.S. delisting risk with Hong Kong play

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. renewables investors see Senate bill sparking gold rush

•   AP: EXPLAINER: Can the spread of monkeypox be stopped?

•   CNBC: Business travel costs are expected to rise through 2023, industry report says

•   CNBC: Google pushes Apple to adopt a new kind of text messaging, criticizes ‘green bubbles’

•   SCMP: China trade: US’ Xinjiang ban looms large even as textile, garment exports surge to record US$33 billion in July

•   Nikkei Asia: China and Japan duel over 'liquid' batteries for green energy

•   Nikkei Asia: China trade groups blast U.S. CHIPS Act as hindering innovation

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: China targets Taiwan, Okinawa in Pelosi damage control

•   매경(P1): 시대착오적 '총수 친족범위' 줄인다

•   매경: 기업부담 덜게…얼굴도 모르는 총수 6촌 자료 안내도 된다

•   매경: 재계 "아직도 80년대식 규제 수두룩…대기업집단 지정제 폐지를"

•   매경: 美와 통상마찰 우려에…외국인총수 지정 빠져

•   매경(P1): 尹대통령 "수해입은 국민들께 죄송"…吳시장 "시간당 110㎜ 배수 가능케"

•   매경: 서울시 부랴부랴…강남역·도림천 빗물저류시설 다시 추진

•   매경(P1): 마트 반값치킨 돌풍…화들짝 놀란 가맹점

•   매경: 이천·군산·강릉…집값 하락세에도 오를 곳은 오른다

•   매경: 해외건설 규제 확 풀어…'1300조 큰장' 사우디에 팀코리아 띄운다

•   매경: 사우디 네옴시티란…두바이 모델로 서울 44배 신도시 조성

•   매경: 12조 사우디 원전 수주전…사실상 한·러 2파전 압축

•   매경: 디스플레이 산업의 미래가 여기에 다~

•   매경: [Science in Biz] IT 혁명 뛰어넘는 에너지 기술 혁명이 온다

•   한경(P1): 물폭탄에 농산물 산지 '쑥대밭'…물가 초비상

•   한경: 뿌리 썩고 물러터져…"팔 물건이 없다" 대형마트 초비상

•   한경: "14만원이던 외국인 근로자 일당 20만원까지 치솟았다" 비명

•   한경: 고공행진하는 식용유·밀가루값…국제 곡물가 꺾여 안정세 찾을 듯

•   한경(P1): 최저 年3.7% 고정금리 안심전환대출 나온다

•   한경(P1): "차원이 다른 촬영"…삼성 폴더블폰 4번째 혁신

•   한경: "약점 싹 보완했다"…삼성전자, 폴더블 대중화에 '올인'

•   한경: 폰 한 대로 전화번호 2개 쓴다

•   한경: IPO 꽁꽁 얼어붙자…'우회상장 통로' 스팩은 역대급 활황

•   한경: 이창양 "원전 기업에 1조 규모 발전기자재 일감 발주"

•   한경: 정부, 이달 중 국민연금 재정계산 착수

•   한경: 강남 마지막 '노른자 땅'에 5조 투입…초대형 사업의 정체

•   한경: 삼성이 눈독 들인 '세계 1위' 회사…韓 보안벤처 손 잡는 까닭

•   서경(P1): 반도체 수요 뚝 뚝…무역적자 '설상가상'

•   서경: PC·스마트폰 넘어 데이터센터도 '수요둔화'…D램 혹한기 온다

•   서경: "반도체 수출, 하반기 역성장 가능성"

•   서경: 삼성·LG, 中 저가공습에 LCD '백기'…고부가 OLED 수성도 위태

•   서경: 中, 디스플레이 '적자 보조금'도 주는데…韓은 국가전략기술서도 빠져

•   서경: 농식품부 "식량 자급률 50%대로 확대"

•   서경: 한미 금리 역전에도 외국인의 'K국채 사랑'…보유액 또 사상 최고치

•   조선(P1): 文정부는 약속 안했다는데… 中 “사드운용 제한도 선서”

•   조선: 日 도쿄선 정원 못 채우는 어린이집 속출... 아예 문 닫기도

•   조선: 일본 인구 72만명 감소 쇼크... 1년새 남양주만큼 사라졌다

•   조선: “회사에 얽매이기 싫다”… 긱워커 220만명 시대

•   조선: 28만→20만→15만→20만... 롤러코스터 탄 ‘코로나 정점 전망치’

•   조선: 철강제품 가격 4개월새 16~27% 하락

•   조선: [단독] 습도 40%→60% 높아지면 코로나 감염확률 14% 줄어든다

•   조선비즈: 현대차, 노조에 ‘허락’받는 사이… 테슬라는 북미에 공장 또 짓는다

•   조선비즈: 삼성·SK, 인텔·AMD CPU 신제품 출시에 화색… 1년 기다린 DDR5 빛 본다

•   조선비즈: “원전 수출 낭보 임박했나”…‘논스톱 금융서비스’ 갖춘 장관급 원전수출委, 다음주 출범

•   동아: 호우로 연기된 ‘250만채+α’ 주택공급대책 16일 발표

•   동아: 점주가 배달하거나 퇴근길 음식 픽업… 늘어나는 ‘배달앱 패싱’

•   동아: 국내 100대 기업 여성 임원 비율, 5%대 첫 진입

•   동아: 월세 100만원 넘는 서울 아파트… 거래 1년새 48% 늘어 비중 35%

•   세계(P1): 빨라진 지방 인구소멸시계… 3년새 강원·경북 등 위험

•   헤럴드경제: 가격 20% 뚝...연어가 식탁으로 돌아왔다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: '脫통신 선언' 통신 3사, 구독경제 파고든다

•   이데일리(P1): 국책은행이 늙어간다…희망퇴직 6년째 0명, 임금피크는 7배 ↑

•   이데일리: 희망퇴직 논의 '올스톱'에…청년채용 확대는 엄두도 못내

•   이데일리: 금융위도 원하는 국책은행 희망퇴직…기재부가 '퇴짜'

•   이데일리(P1): [단독]김종석 교수, 대통령 직속 규제개혁委 민간위원장 내정

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 13만1518명 확진, 어제보다 1만4846명↓

•   전자신문(P1): 물난리에 '디지털트윈' 주목

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Jayati Ghosh): Curbing Commodity-Market Speculation

•   Project Syndicate(Raila Odinga): Envisaging an African Green Economy

•   FT(Editorial Board): Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s risky double game

•   FT(Edward Luce): The unexpected triumph of Joe Biden

•   FT(Constanze Stelzenmüller): Germany is now the fulcrum for Vladimir Putin’s pressure

•   FT(Valentina Romei): Global supply chain pressures are easing — for now

•   FT(Bruna Skarica): Why criticism of the Bank of England is largely misplaced

•   FT(Richard Milne): Norway’s unexpected energy crisis

•   FT(Alexi Drew): Chinese technology in the ‘Internet of Things’ poses a new threat to the west

•   FT(Andrzej Rzońca): Why the Fed is to blame for the boom in zombie companies

•   NYT(David Wallace-Wells): Europe’s Energy Crisis May Get A Lot Worse

•   WP(Paul Waldman): 5 factors that will drive the midterms

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Inflation Surprises Are Bad Even When They’re Good

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): What Markets Are Missing From the Yield Curve and Bond Premia Ahead of Inflation

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): In the Energy Markets, Putin Is Winning the War

•   Bloomberg(James Stavridis): A US-China War Over Taiwan Isn't Happening Anytime Soon

•   Bloomberg(Tim Culpan): China Has Painted Itself Into a Semiconductor Corner

•   Bloomberg(Faye Flam): The Omicron BA.5 Wave Is Starting To Ebb. We Need to Know Why.

•   MarketWatch(Rex Nutting): Inflation hasn't peaked yet because rents are still rising fast

•   MarketWatch(Peter Morici): Biden pushed the country too far to the left when he took office, leaving many Democratic voters behind

•   Reuters(Jamie McGeever): Deep U.S. curve inversion hastens the recession it predicts

•   Caixin(Vincent Chan): The Two Weaknesses of China’s Economy