Global Economic Monitor 220810

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Nasdaq closes lower as chipmaker Micron's warning renews tech rout

※   Micron falls on lowered revenue forecast

※   Semiconductor stocks drop for third session

※   Novavax tumbles after cutting revenue view by half

•   Natural gas: Europe Gas Pares Losses as Winter Woes Counter Rising Stockpiles

•   Metals: Copper prices get a boost from improving data

•   Grains: Corn, soybeans gain as U.S. crop ratings decline

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Slumps Again as Investors Await Inflation Report

•   한국: 코스피, 두달 만에 2,500선 회복…외국인·기관 매수

•   한국: 美엔비디아 실적 충격에 또 '5만전자' 위기

[Indicators]

•   US Q2 Productivity: U.S. Productivity Falls for Second Straight Quarter

•   US Jul. Home listings: Home Listings Soar in Cooling US Housing Market - Bloomberg

•   US Jul. NFIB Business optimism index: U.S. small business sentiment edges up in July, NFIB says

•   France Jul. Business survey: French Output Steadies as Services Offset Industry Weakness

•   Japan Jan. Population: Japan population falls at record pace to 125.93m with births low

•   Brazil Jul. CPI: Brazil Prices Tumble Most Since 1980 on Bolsonaro’s Tax Cuts

•   Philippine Q2 GDP: Philippine Economic Growth Slows to 7.4% as Inflation Bites

•   한국 2분기 제조업 국내공급: 2분기 제조업 공급 1.5% 증가…수입 비중 사상 최고치 경신

[News]

•   WSJ: FBI Search of Trump Property Prompted by Concerns Over Sensitive Documents

※   The search was conducted about two months after Trump lawyers met with DOJ officials

•   WSJ: Search of Trump’s Home Roils 2022 Midterms, 2024 Presidential Race

•   WSJ: Inside the Russian-Occupied Ukrainian City Living Under Threat of Nuclear Disaster

•   WSJ: Russia Says It Won’t Allow U.S. Inspection for Now of Its Nuclear Weapons

•   WSJ: Blasts Rock Russian Air Base in Crimea

•   WSJ: Rapid Wage Growth Keeps Pressure on U.S. Inflation

•   WSJ: U.S. Solar Shipments Are Hit by Import Ban on China’s Xinjiang Region

•   WSJ: Taiwan Starts Two-Day Defensive Drills as Tensions With China Remain High

•   WSJ: How the Rajapaksa Political Clan Led Sri Lanka to Catastrophe

•   WSJ: Coinbase Posts Steep Second-Quarter Loss Amid Crypto Meltdown

•   WSJ: Russian Engines Lose Spot on Northrop Grumman Rocket

•   WSJ: Micron Stock Falls After Chip Maker Warns of Weakening Demand, Lower Sales

•   WSJ: Micron Rains on Government’s Chip Parade

•   WSJ: Chip Makers Brace for Demand Slowdown to Expand Beyond PCs, Smartphones

•   WSJ: Microsoft Tries to Reduce Business Expenses by Restricting Spending on Travel and Company Gatherings

•   WSJ: Tesla Faces Crowded Field in China as New-Energy Car Market Booms

•   WSJ: U.S. Accuses China’s Largest Cable Manufacturer of Violating Export Controls

•   WSJ: Inflation Reduction Act Could Supercharge Grid Energy Storage

•   NYT: Biden signs measure giving U.S. approval to Sweden and Finland’s bids to join NATO.

•   NYT: Biden Signs Industrial Policy Bill Aimed at Bolstering Competition With China

※   White House: FACT SHEET: CHIPS and Science Act Will Lower Costs, Create Jobs, Strengthen Supply Chains, and Counter China

•   NYT: Why the Cost of Dinner Has Soared

•   NYT: Why China’s Confidence Could Turn Out to Be a Weakness

•   NYT: The Fed Is Cooling Down the Economy, but Stocks Are Hot. What Gives?

•   FT: Russian oil flow halted through Druzhba pipeline to central Europe

※   Supply to Slovakia, Czech Republic and Hungary cut off amid row over payments related to EU sanctions against Moscow

•   FT: Why are British household energy bills so high?

•   FT: Bleak winter of UK power cuts feared in worst-case scenario for energy supplies

•   FT: US climate bill is a ‘generational opportunity’, energy execs say

•   FT: Biden tax proposals fall short of OECD standards for minimum rate

•   FT: Brazil’s political brawler Ciro Gomes takes election fight to Lula and Bolsonaro

•   FT: Bangladesh’s finance minister warns on Belt and Road loans from China

•   FT: The private equity club: how corporate raiders became teams of rivals

•   Bloomberg: Pelosi Trip Hinders Biden Effort to Galvanize Asia Against China

•   Bloomberg: Pelosi Says Xi Reacted to Her Taiwan Visit ‘Like a Scared Bully’

•   Bloomberg: What-If DC War Game Maps Huge Toll of a Future US-China War Over Taiwan

•   Bloomberg: Food Inflation Eases, But Uncertain Crops Slow Wider Relief

•   Bloomberg: BofA Sees Slower Card Spending as Rent Increases Dent Wallets

•   Bloomberg: UK Heading for Recession on BOE View Even With Truss Tax Cuts

•   Bloomberg: China Graft Probes Stem From Anger Over Failed Chip Plans

•   Bloomberg: Modi Loses Key Ally 20 Months Ahead of India’s General Elections

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Sees Global M&A Volumes Defying Souring Credit Conditions

•   Bloomberg: One of the Decade's Hottest Bond Markets Is Imploding in China

•   Bloomberg: Treasury Yield Curve Inversion Has Scope to Deepen, BofA Says

•   Bloomberg: Only Way Is Down for Egyptian Currency, and Question Is How Much

•   Bloomberg: The Great European Energy Crisis Is Now Coming for Your Food

•   Bloomberg: Gasoline-Demand Forecast Is Cut for This Year Amid High US Prices

•   Bloomberg: Oil Output in US Set for Record 2023 Despite Slowing Growth

•   Bloomberg: Europe Is Set to Start Winter Seriously Short of Diesel Fuel

•   Reuters: Germany plans tax changes to help households cope with inflation

•   Reuters: German economy to lose $265 billion in added value due to war, high energy prices, study says

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Bank of England will probably need to raise rates again, Ramsden says

•   Reuters: Escaping Shanghai's COVID lockdown only to get trapped in Hainan

•   CNBC: Critical inflation report could show price increases have eased

•   CNBC: Slowing demand in the U.S., Europe and China could hurt Asian exporters, HSBC says

•   CNBC: Everything from wages to used car prices could jump higher, market researcher Jim Bianco warns

•   MarketWatch: Don’t be fooled by a drop in U.S. headline inflation. Markets will be attuned to another figure on Wednesday.

•   Fox Business: The Great Resignation turns to the Great Regret as worker needs are not being met, expert says

•   SCMP: China GDP: 16 provinces insist economic growth goals are still within reach, but wary analysts wonder how

•   SCMP: China’s food-security push gets a boost with new list of 276 state-supported breeders, seed producers

•   SCMP: Australia reviews Chinese aluminium imports amid anti-dumping probe with more ‘trade skirmishes’ expected

•   Global Times: China, US face 'high risks of miscalculations, crisis' with US' possible more provocative moves over Taiwan amid Biden's 'buck-passing' remarks

•   Nikkei Asia: Taiwan tensions a boon for defense industry but supply clogs loom

•   Nikkei Asia: China tops U.S. in quantity and quality of scientific papers

•   매경(P1): 중부 최대 350㎜…10일에도 '폭포비'

•   매경: 北 찬공기 南 더운공기 한반도서 충돌…11일까지 폭우

•   매경: 또 물바다된 강남역…서초역보다 14m 낮은 오목한 항아리형

•   매경(P1): 급식 한끼 3만7천원 쓰는 초등학교…교부금 펑펑, 교육현장 방만운영

•   매경(P1): [단독] 빈살만 11월 訪韓…사우디 신도시 건설 협의

•   매경: 서울 44배 '네옴시티' 참여땐 제2 중동 붐

•   매경: "제발 야근 시켜주세요" 저녁이 없는 삶 찾는 사람들

•   매경: "월급 25%나 줄어 택배 뛰어요"…'워라밸' 뺏은 주52시간제

•   매경: "에어컨수리 여름에 몰리는데"…경직된 주52시간에 발동동

•   매경: '원자재 대란' 기업들, 성급한 국내 유턴땐 공급망 무너질 수도

•   매경: 제조만 잘하고 원천기술 뒤진 韓…반도체 이어 'ABCD'에 미래 있다

•   매경: 전세계 기업 '실적 먹구름'…7분기 만에 순이익 줄었다

•   매경: 일대일로 다시 띄우는 中…차이나머니로 '美 포위전선' 뚫을까

•   매경: "中 일대일로·동북아 경제벨트 연계 땐 시너지"

•   매경: 일대일로 견제나선 美·유럽…"개도국 인프라 지원사업 속도"

•   매경: 노동·주택·에너지 정책까지…尹정부 '주요 1급' 속속 인선

•   매경: 역대 최대 발주 LNG선, 한국이 싹쓸이

•   매경: 美, 중국산 배터리 배제…'찐수혜주'는 LG엔솔·포스코케미칼

•   한경(P1): 대출금리 7년 만에 최고…빚 많은 기업 '전전긍긍'

•   한경: 기업 덮친 '高금리 리스크'…빚 부담에 채무 조정하고 알짜자산 판다

•   한경(P1): [단독] 공무원 임금 1%대 인상 유력…"최저임금도 안돼" 반발

•   한경(P1): 학생들 '대박'이 자극제…3년간 교수 1000명 CEO 됐다

•   한경: 신재생 과속의 역설…제주 태양광 올해만 22번 가동 중단

•   한경: 세브란스병원 '주 4일제' 시범 운영

•   한경: 전문인력 키우고 중·고생 교육…AI인재 확보 총력전 나선 LG

•   서경(P1): 美, '中 B·E·C' 봉쇄작전에…韓 첨단산업 초비상

•   서경: 망간·흑연 수입비중 90%…'광물 脫中' 못하면 美 수출 끊긴다

•   서경: 메모리 수출 74% 최대 매출처인데…美 조치에 中 시설투자 차질

•   서경: 친족경영 무관한 기업 쏟아지는데…"총수 지정제 시대착오적"

•   서경: 6억 빌리면 50년간 월 300만원 갚아야…'첫집 LTV 80%' 실효성 있나

•   서경: GM, 호주 광산기업서 코발트 확보…현대차는 공급망 전담조직 신설

•   서경: [단독] 카카오 구독ON, 1년 만에 'OFF'

•   서경: 1년새 17조 빠진 M&A시장…활기 되찾을까 [시그널 INSIDE]

•   서경: 국토부 "250만+α 주택공급 대책 발표 연기"…집중호우 대처

•   조선(P1): 국민연금, 이대로면 70년뒤 2경2650조 적자

•   조선(P1): 박진, 왕이에 “北이 대화 선택하게 中이 역할해달라”

•   조선: 스타트업 몰려갔던 개발자들, 대기업으로 U턴

•   조선: 삼성전자, 美서 폰 ‘셀프수리’ 지원… 국내 도입은 난망

•   조선: 진입장벽 높은 車반도체 시장… ‘빅5′만 웃는다

•   조선비즈: 中 최대 반도체 파운드리 SMIC, 12인치 웨이퍼 국산화 삐걱…“소프트웨어 개발 실패”

•   조선비즈: K-기업 유치에 美는 대통령까지 나서는데... 한국 지자체는 “결사반대”

•   조선비즈: 시장에 차고 넘치는 LCD 재고…삼성·LG 이유 있는 철수

•   조선비즈: 소득 늘었다 줄었다… 고환율에 해외 주재원 희비 교차

•   조선비즈: [S의 공포가 온다]② “일할 곳이 없다”… 청년·저소득층 일자리부터 사라진다

•   인베스트조선: 공모는 적게, IR은 오너가 직접...얼어붙은 IPO 시장에 몸 낮추는 기업들

•   인베스트조선: 점유율 줄어든 국내 2차전지업계...수요둔화 우려에 투자부담 'UP'

•   중앙: [단독] 말 안듣는 노조원에 갑질…공정위, 민주노총에 또 칼뺐다

•   동아: ‘강제징용’ 日기업 자산 현금화 문제 다음주 결정

•   동아: 곡물값 심상찮더니… 밀가루 가공식품 원가 1년새 41% 급등

•   한국: [단독] '코로나 백신 성적표'…1년6개월간 5조2000억 투입, 폐기율 3.6%

•   한국: 폭염에 폭우까지... 밥상물가 초비상, IMF 수준 가나

•   국민: 현 정부의 재생에너지 보급, 감속하지만 멈추진 않는다

•   국민: “화력발전 일부 축소… 재생에너지는 늘려야”

•   국민: [단독] 국회 정무위, 투자자 단체에 ‘공매도 개혁안’ 요청

•   경향: 휘발유보다 비싼 경유…‘서민 연료’ 언제쯤 제자리로 돌아오려나

•   머니투데이(P1): "빚 폭탄 떨어진다…이러다 망한다" 벌벌 떠는 바이오

•   머니투데이: 115년만에 폭우에 전력예비율 안정세…'블랙아웃'위기 넘겼다

•   헤럴드경제: 친환경이 낳은 산업계 ‘창조적 이종연합’

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 현대차, 美 전기차 공장 가동 속도붙나… 노조 설득이 변수 [美 '인플레 감축법' 영향은]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 원자재 폭등이 불러온 對中 적자… 배터리 중간재 수입도 늘어

•   아시아경제(P1): 국가대항전..."韓, 지금 세제혜택만으론 부족"[반도체 지원]

•   디지털타임스: 지방공기업 부채 56.3조… 文정부 임기말 1년새 2조 가까이 늘어

•   디지털타임스: 교통비 5개월째 두자릿수 상승률

•   이데일리(P1): 환율방어 급한데…원低 부추기는 국민연금

•   이데일리: 경기둔화에도 네이버·카카오 성장 비결은 ‘신규 사업’ 자신감

•   이데일리: 콧대 높던 재건축 아파트도 '급매물'…여의도 시범 3억 '뚝'

•   연합: 오후 9시 14만6364명 확진, 어제보다 3196명↑…전주의 1.27배

•   연합: "재산세·종부세, 소득 역진적이라 재분배 효과 없어"

•   연합: 기업 CEO들, 올들어 주가 하락 속 자사주 2천270억원 매도

•   연합: "삼성전자, TSMC보다 법인세·인건비·인력수급 환경 열악"

•   더구루: [단독] 삼성, 미래 먹거리 '수소' 정조준…美 유틸리티 글로벌 투자

•   전자신문(P1): [ET뷰] 삼성바이오로직스·셀트리온 '2조 클럽' 눈앞

•   전자신문(P1): 벤처스타트업 1년 사이 6.7만개 일자리 창출

•   전자신문: REC, 3년 만에 6만원대 돌파…재생에너지 사업자 호황

•   전자신문: 인텔·AMD, 'FPGA' 날개 달고 분기 최대 매출 찍었다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Nouriel Roubini): From Great Moderation to Great Stagflation

•   Project Syndicate(Daron Acemoglu, James A. Robinson): Why Taiwan Matters

•   Project Syndicate(Daniel Gros): Russian Gas Cuts Will Not Kill the German Economy

•   Project Syndicate(Kenneth Rogoff): Chess and Geopolitics in the Supercomputer Era

•   FT(Editorial Board): Confronting the reality of the UK energy crisis

•   FT(Chris Giles): Europe can withstand a winter recession

•   FT(Mohamed El-Erian): It is too early to declare risk of US recession is over

•   FT(Katie Martin): Fed help isn’t coming

•   FT(Blair Effron): There are reasons to be optimistic about the US economy

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Tilting at Climate Windmills

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The FBI’s Dangerous Trump Search

•   WSJ(William A. Galston): Biden’s Focus Turns to Foreign Policy

•   WSJ(Mark Skousen): Recession Fears May Not Pass GO

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Was There a Biden Boom?

•   WP(Marc A. Thiessen): The FBI goes after Trump again, and this time, it has really blundered

•   WP(Katrina vanden Heuvel): Washington is gung-ho for a new Cold War. But that’s a bad old idea.

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): Bank of England Forecast Shows Economic Challenge Facing Next UK Prime Minister

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): UK Economy: Bank Of England’s Apocalyptic Prophesies Fall on Deaf Ears

•   Bloomberg(Julian Lee): Oil Demand Forecasts Are at Risk: Elements by Julian Lee

•   Bloomberg(Hal Brands): Using Climate Change as a Weapon Will Backfire on China

•   Bloomberg(Noah Feldman): Three Major Takeaways From the FBI Search on Trump’s Home

•   Bloomberg(Matthew Brooker): China Says Taiwan Can Be Just Like Hong Kong.

•   Bloomberg(Eduardo Porter): Minimum Wages Are Going Up. Jobs May Disappear.

•   Bloomberg(Thomas Black): Industrials’ Long Coattails Can Carry the US Economy

•   CNN(Sarah Anderson, Rebekah Entralgo): Americans are fed up with billionaires. Washington needs to get the wealthy to pay up

•   MarketWatch(Mark Hulbert): We’re in a bear-market rally and you can expect the June 2022 lows to be broken

•   MarketWatch(Daniel Sichel): Are you confused about why there are so many different inflation measures? We can explain.

•   Reuters(John Kemp): U.S. manufacturing activity shows signs of peaking