Global Economic Monitor 220823

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Shares slip, dollar dominates as recession fears rise

※   Mood cautious ahead of Powell speech at Jackson Hole

※   Dollar keeps climbing, bond yields also rise

※   China trims lending rates, yuan lowest since Sept 2020

•   Eurozone: Euro hits lowest level in two decades as gas prices soar

•   UK: Pound Dives and Inflation Bets Hit a Record on UK Energy Crisis

•   Natural gas: Europe Gas Surges 20% as Latest Russia Move Deepens Supply Fears

•   Natural gas: Asia Gas Prices Jump After Russia Work Sends Europe to Record

•   Electricity: German Power Prices Smash Record as Energy Panic Engulfs Europe

•   Metals: Uncertain demand prospects undermine copper prices

•   Grains: U.S. soybean, wheat futures rally; corn also higher

•   한국: 코스피 2,460대로 추락…코스닥 800선 붕괴

•   한국: 원화값 '1339.8원' 급락…어디까지 떨어질까

[Indicators]

•   Germany Jul. Balance of trade: German exports beyond the EU slump in July

•   UK 2020 GDP(rev.): UK economy shrank more than previously estimated in 2020, says ONS

•   China LPR: China Cuts Benchmark Loan Prime Rate to Boost Faltering Economy

※   The one-year loan prime rate, which is offered to banks’ best clients, was lowered to 3.65% from 3.7%

※   WSJ: Chinese Banks Cut Rates to Spur Economic Growth

•   Taiwan Jul. Export orders: Taiwan Sees Surprise Export Order Fall on Weak China Demand

•   한국 2분기 지역경제동향: 2분기 물가상승률 5.4%… 24년만에 최대폭

•   한국 7월 거주자 외화예금: "달러 가치 더 오른다"…지난달 거주자 외화예금 33억2000만달러 증가

•   한국 8월 1~20일 무역수지: 올해 누적 무역적자 255억달러…연간 최대 기록 넘어

※   조선: 반도체 -7%, 통신기기 -24%… 10대 품목 절반이 수출액 꺾였다

※   조선: 對中무역 4개월째 적자 행진, 수교 30년만에 처음

•   한국 8월 소비자동향: 물가 한풀 꺾이나'…8월 기대인플레 4.3%, 8개월 만에 하락

[News]

•   WSJ: U.S. Steps Up Enforcement of Its Long List of Russia Sanctions

•   WSJ: Crimea, Once a Bastion of Russian Power, Now Reveals Its Weakness

•   WSJ: Russia Blames Ukraine in Car Bomb Killing of Daria Dugina, Daughter of Putin Ally

•   WSJ: Ukraine’s Zelensky Warns Against Trial of Prisoners Captured at Azovstal Steel Plant

•   WSJ: Trump Files Lawsuit Challenging Mar-a-Lago Search

•   WSJ: Anthony Fauci to Step Down After More Than 50 Years of Government Service

•   WSJ: China Extends Power Curbs Amid Heat Wave, Drought

•   WSJ: Iraq’s Political Crisis Points to Iran’s Weakening Influence in Baghdad

•   WSJ: Shrinking Deficits Cushion Fed’s Retreat From Markets

•   WSJ: IPO Market Faces Worst Year in Two Decades. ‘Really Hard Pill to Swallow.’

•   WSJ: Amazon Among Bidders for Signify Health

•   WSJ: Ford Confirms Layoffs, Says It Is Cutting About 3,000 Jobs

•   WSJ: A Group of Apple Employees Protests Company’s Three-Day-a-Week Office Policy

•   WSJ: Pfizer, BioNTech Seek FDA Authorization for Updated Covid-19 Vaccine

•   WSJ: Europe’s Natural-Gas Crunch Sparks Global Battle for Tankers

•   WSJ: BYD, Tesla’s Chinese Rival, Is Coming Into Its Own

•   WSJ: Coffee and Pastry Shops Avoid Inflation Backlash Punishing Restaurants

•   NYT: Democrats Designed the Climate Law to Be a Game Changer. Here’s How.

•   NYT: Expansion of Clean Energy Loans Is ‘Sleeping Giant’ of Climate Bill

•   NYT: Former Pakistan Prime Minister Charged Under Terrorism Act

•   NYT: The Question Menacing Brazil’s Elections: Coup or No Coup?

•   NYT: Expansion of Clean Energy Loans Is ‘Sleeping Giant’ of Climate Bill

•   NYT: A Supplier of Rare Earth Metals Turns to Greenland in a Bid to Cut Reliance on Russia

•   WP: Files copied from voting systems were shared with Trump supporters, election deniers

•   WP: Big hurdles on the road to moving millions of U.S. drivers into EVs

•   FT: Car subsidies deliver electric shock to US-EU trade relations

•   FT: EU’s chief diplomat opposes blanket ban on visas for Russians

•   FT: Italy’s fractured centre-left leaves door open for Meloni election win

•   FT: UK inflation projected to hit 18.6% as gas prices surge

•   FT: Has Britain’s energy price cap run its course?

•   FT: Truss team would shun OBR forecasts for emergency budget

•   FT: US trustbusters: why Joe Biden is taking on private equity

•   FT: Raila Odinga challenges Kenyan election result

•   FT: Soaring fertiliser prices deepen Africa’s food crisis

•   FT: Finance groups risk being kicked out of Mark Carney-led climate coalition

•   FT: Europe risks losing green hydrogen funding to US, industry leader says

•   FT: Meta: low-quality metaverse picture is needless own goal

•   Bloomberg: Central Banks Won’t Spark Major Economy Recessions, Goldman Says

•   Bloomberg: Summers Urges Fed to Deliver Stark Message on Economic Pain

•   Bloomberg: JPMorgan Strategists See Last Big Fed Rate Hike in September

•   Bloomberg: New Apartments at 50-Year High May Ease Pressure on US Rents

•   Bloomberg: Home Sellers Are Slashing Prices in Pandemic Boomtowns

•   Bloomberg: Water Level Deepens at Key German Chokepoint on Rhine River

•   Bloomberg: Europe Faces Up to 10 Tough Winters, Belgian Premier Warns

•   Bloomberg: Unions Could Ramp Up Pay Demands as UK Inflation Forecasts Rise

•   Bloomberg: US Says Gaps Remain in Iran Nuclear Deal But Pact Closer Than Before

•   Bloomberg: China Covid Cases Elevated as Virus Chief Urges More Tests

•   Bloomberg: Rice, Lithium and Metals at Risk in China’s Extreme Summer

•   Bloomberg: Japan Premier Returns to Work After Positive Test for Covid

•   Bloomberg: Egypt Nears Deal on New IMF Loan in Face of Economic Crisis

•   Bloomberg: Turkey Doesn’t Need Interest Rate Hikes, President Erdogan Says

•   Bloomberg: Brazil’s Lula Calls for Free Election, Alternation of Power in Venezuela

•   Bloomberg: India Rate Hawk Sees RBI Credibility Restored After Hikes

•   Bloomberg: Economists Raise African Inflation Forecasts Over Next Two Years

•   Bloomberg: Inflation Triggers Fried-Chicken Price War in South Korea

•   Bloomberg: US Climate Law Offers Major Boost to Korean Clean Energy Firms

•   Bloomberg: Inflation and Fed to Turn Stock Rally into Bear Market Trap, Survey Shows

•   Bloomberg: Saudi Prince Says Oil’s Disconnect May Force OPEC+ Action

•   Bloomberg: European Are Snapping Up the Most Russian Crude Oil Since April

•   Bloomberg: China Boosts Spending on Russian Energy to $35 Billion Since War

•   Bloomberg: US Oil Pours Into Asia as Buyers Go for Long-Range Flows

•   Bloomberg: Diesel Profit Margins Soar to 30-Year Seasonal High as Supply Worries Grip the US

•   Bloomberg: ‘Horrible’ Texas Cotton Conditions Worsen Global Supply Outlook

•   Bloomberg: EU Corn Yields Will Plummet By Almost a Fifth as Drought Bites

•   Bloomberg: ESG Confusion Prompts Watchdog’s Demand for Rethink of Rules

•   Bloomberg: Americans’ Pay Floor for Accepting a New Job Rises to $73,000

•   Bloomberg: Climate Disasters Risk Putting a Damper on Electric-Car Making

•   Bloomberg: Electric Cars Have a Big Tire Conundrum

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Inflation Is Up Everywhere, But How Much Depends on Where You Live

•   Reuters: U.S. to spend more than $500 billion on climate over a decade under three laws, study says

•   Reuters: Europe braces for more cuts in Russian oil and gas exports

•   Reuters: Germany's Uniper to restart coal-fired power plant as Gazprom halts supply to Europe

•   Reuters: BOJ seen cutting growth forecasts on soft spending, says ex-central bank executive

•   Reuters: Analysis: As drought risks rise, investors eye thirsty companies, solutions

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. stock options traders see little drama around Fed’s Jackson Hole event

•   Reuters: Analysis: China no closer to peak coal despite record renewable capacity additions

•   AP: Wanted: 7,000 construction workers for Intel chip plants

•   CNBC: China and India could become clean hydrogen leaders — but the industry has a long way to go, says CSIS

•   CNBC: Peak freight season is underway and there’s no end in sight for congestion

•   MarketWatch: Beware of ‘bear trap’ retreat in stocks after big summer rally, strategists warn

•   Fox Business: Oil expert explains the only 'concrete action' Biden admin took to lower gas prices

•   SCMP: China energy: Sichuan looks to coal as hydro dams run low, but ‘insufficient’ to alleviate power crunch

•   SCMP: EU could act as ‘moderator’ in Taiwan Strait, top diplomat says

•   SCMP: Analysis | China interest rate cuts further widen US policy gap, with all eyes on next Fed move at Jackson Hole

•   Caixin: Cover Story: Sichuan Power Crunch Sparks Calls for Rethink of Coal in China’s Energy Mix

•   Nikkei Asia: $2.6tn could evaporate from global economy in Taiwan emergency

•   Nikkei Asia: China's ASEAN Silk Road gets slippery as other powers move in

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan weighs ending pre-arrival COVID test requirement

•   Nikkei Asia: Fujitsu, Riken to offer 1st Japan-made quantum computer

•   Nikkei Asia: CATL aims for 'battery as a service' hegemony in China

•   매경(P1): 100만 디지털인재 키우려…학~박사 5년으로 통합한다는데

•   매경(P1): 은행 '이자장사' 이정도일 줄이야… 제일 크게 한 은행 어디?

•   매경: '줍줍=로또' 옛말…서울서 공고 10번 한 아파트 나왔다

•   매경: 서울 아파트 2채 중 1채는 '하락거래'

•   매경: 종부세 특례법 국회 지연에…1주택자 3억 특별공제 혼선

•   매경: "새 아파트 전세 사실 분 없나요"…성남 수원 '입주폭탄'에 집주인 잠 못든다

•   매경: "4억7000만원 주고 사서 5억 전세 줘"…'깡통전세' 비상

•   매경: 고강도 재정긴축 나선 기재부…3년 연속 '미흡'땐 사업 폐지

•   매경: "30년전 마차 다니던 베이징…지금은 자율주행차 달리죠"

•   매경: 美인플레 감축법 후폭풍…배터리업계 비상

•   매경: 비상걸린 현대차…미국서 보조금 못받자 올해 美공장 세운다

•   매경: "차·과자·과일도 구독하세요"…구독경제 파고드는 식품업계

•   매경: "시급 1만원 불러도 사람 못구해"…식당들 눈물의 '브레이크 타임'

•   매경: 코로나 감소세…"10~11월 또 유행할수도"

•   한경(P1): "美 인플레이션 감축법…WTO 제소 적극 검토"

•   한경: "한국선 집 못 산다"…억대 연봉 연구원, 사표 내고 '미국행'

•   한경: 기재부 "韓기업 피해 없도록…BEPS 관련 법령 연내 개정"

•   한경: "기업활력법, 대기업엔 그림의 떡…사업재편 지원대상 넓혀야"

•   한경: 日 비제조업, 역대급 엔저에 환차손 확 늘었다

•   한경: "바다가 눈앞에…일하면서 서핑 즐겨요" 직장인들 몰리는 곳

•   한경: 차세대 반도체 기술 전쟁…DDR5·CXL 메모리가 뭐지?

•   서경: 대한항공, 환율 10원 뛰면 350억 손실…배터리는 원자재비용 '눈덩이'

•   서경: 납품단가 연동계약 기업, '입찰 가점·벌점 경감'된다

•   서경: 개미들 카카오 4400억 샀는데…증권가선 "아직 바닥 아냐"

•   서경: [단독] ‘강남 재건축’ 신통기획 쉽지 않네…송파 한양2차 '철회'할듯

•   조선(P1): 엄마는 암, 두 딸은 난치병… 수원 세모녀 생활고, 10년간 아무도 몰랐다

•   조선(P1): ‘원전 테러·드론 공격’ 실전처럼 대비… 한미 야외훈련 4년만에 정상화

•   조선: “급하면 3000원 더 내라” 카카오가 장악한 택시

•   조선: 미국, 플랫폼 독과점 조사… 한국은 “당사자들 자율규제”

•   조선: 주택청약저축 가입자 첫 감소

•   조선: LG디스플레이, 중형 OLED 생산… 삼성디스플레이 독점 깨나

•   조선비즈: [단독] 공정위, 내부거래 공시 대상 ‘금액 기준 100억원 이상’ 상향 검토…기업 부담 완화 ‘첫걸음’

•   조선비즈: 거래 절벽에도 디벨로퍼 신규등록은 역대 최고… “개발수요 꾸준”

•   중앙: 원화 구매력도 떨어져 2013년 수준으로 돌아갔다

•   동아(P1): 불황인데 기업은 구인난… 한국도 ‘고용있는 침체’

•   동아: 美-獨 등 선진국도 ‘성장 없는 고용’ 기현상…2008년 ‘고용 없는 성장’과 반대

•   동아: ‘뉴 노멀’ 자리잡은 재택근무… 전기-통신비 등 업무비용 규정 마련해야

•   한국: 공무원 조기퇴직자 10명 중 9명은 '8·9급'... 공직사회에 무슨 일이

•   서울(P1): 3시 반이면 영업 끝… 은행만 거리두기 중[따져 봅시다!]

•   세계: 소니·도쿄일렉트론과 삼각지도 완성… ‘반도체 강국’ 옛 영광 재현 부푼 기대 [한·중 수교 30년…격동의 동아시아]

•   경향(P1): 간접고용 확산 속 원청은 교섭 거부…헌법의 ‘노동3권’ 손배소로 무력화[파업 그 후, 손배폭탄이 남았다]

•   머니투데이: [단독] 尹정부 "기업 형벌 완화"... 공정위 '의무고발' 7→2건, 뚝

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): "1기신도시 계획, 국민에 제대로 설명안돼"

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): [단독] '약한 고리' 파고든 코로나... 청년·노년층 파산 내몰렸다

•   이데일리(P1): 꿈의 숫자 '코스피 5000'…"거버넌스에 길 있다"

•   이데일리: 한국, 왜 G인가…'코리아 디스카운트' 극복하려면

•   이데일리: MB도 '오천스피' 외쳤지만…15년째 답보하는 韓증시

•   이데일리: 국내 거버넌스 이슈가 주가에 미치는 영향은?

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 14만2414명 확진…2주 전과 비슷

•   연합: 한중 수교 30년간 韓 수출규모 9배 증가…對中 수출은 162배↑

•   연합: 상반기 대기업 재고자산 작년보다 50%↑…경기하락 본격화하나

•   오마이뉴스: [단독] '국유재산 매각, 경쟁입찰 원칙'이라더니 올해 수의계약만 98.4%

•   전자신문(P1): [단독]LGD-SK하이닉스, 마이크로OLED '동맹'

•   전자신문: 삼성·LG, 국내 노트북 시장 '양강 체제' 흔들

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Michael R. Strain): What’s Hollowing Out the US Workforce?

•   Project Syndicate(Robert Skidelsky): Mind the Policy Gaps

•   FT(Editorial Board): A pivotal moment for central banks

•   FT(Charley Ellis): Congress should reconsider US tax on share buybacks

•   FT(Laura Noonan): Global scope of EU’s greenwashing crackdown spooks Wall Street

•   FT(Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson): Anxious US consumers carry on spending regardless

•   FT(Michael Auslin): America must consider the risk a war over Taiwan could go nuclear

•   FT(Emmanuel Faber): The power of capital markets can be harnessed to drive the green transition

•   FT(Lex): Global droughts: the price of water does not reflect its real value

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Putin Blackmails Europe, Again

•   WSJ(Tom Rogan): China Risks Losing Its European Union Linchpin

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): Liz Truss Shouldn’t Mess With the Bank of England’s Independence

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): The Stock Market’s Summer Fling Wasn’t the Real Thing

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): China’s Property Demons Stalk Vietnam

•   Bloomberg(Anjani Trivedi): Saudi Arabia’s EV Battery Bets Are a Warning

•   Bloomberg(Gary Shilling): Fed’s Forward Guidance Is Increasing Market Volatility

•   Bloomberg(Clara Ferreira Marques): Can Greener Nickel Fulfill EV Dream?: Elements by Clara F Marques

•   CNN(Stephen G. Cecchetti, Kermit L. Schoenholtz): Corporate greed isn't to blame for high inflation

•   MarketWatch(Micha Kaufman): More than half of the U.S. labor force will be freelance by 2027. Here’s why that’s a good thing for workers and businesses alike

•   Reuters(Cate Lamb): To tackle the global water crisis, companies must be made to reveal their water impacts