Global Economic Monitor 220831

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Shares tumble, yields jump as data fuel rate angst

※   European stocks, U.S. stocks drop after US job openings, German inflation data

※   Government bond yields spike on rate hike bets

※   Markets brace for further hawkish Fed, ECB action

※   Oil tumbles 6% on fears of economic slowdown

•   Japan: Yen’s Slump Toward 140 Reawakens Talk of Currency Intervention

•   Energy: European Energy Prices Plunge as EU Plans to Intervene in Crisis

•   Natural gas: Gas prices slide in UK after record-breaking rally

•   Metals: Copper slides after Fed growth warning triggers sell-off

•   Iron ore: Iron Ore Tumbles Below $100 as China’s Steel Woes Worsen

•   Grains: Corn sags on recession fears, profit-taking after 2-month top

•   한국: 코스피, 개인 반발매수에 2,450대 회복…환율 1,350원 밑으로

•   한국: 회사채 금리 최고치…기업 자금조달 비상

[Indicators]

•   US Jun. Case–Shiller home price: Home-Price Growth Decelerated in June

•   US Jul. Job openings: U.S. Job Openings Rose in July as Hiring Accelerated

※   CNBC: ‘We’re not in a recession,’ say economists: Why the 11 million job openings are a key indicator

※   CNBC: Workers have the ‘upper hand’ right now as job openings jump, says labor economist — but that advantage may not last

•   US Aug. Consumer confidence: US Consumer Confidence Advances to Highest Level Since May

•   Eurozone Aug. Economic sentiment: Euro-Area Confidence Dips to 19-Month Low as Recession Nears

•   Germany Aug. CPI: German inflation hits 40-year high as calls mount for bigger ECB rate rises

•   Japan Jul. Employment: Japan's July job availability improves for 7th straight month

•   한국 2022년 창업기업 동향: 상반기 창업기업 70만개… 농업 늘고 부동산업 줄어

•   한국 7월 금융기관 가중평균 금리: 기업대출 금리 8년만에 年 4% 돌파

•   한국 7월 사업체 노동력 조사: 치솟는 물가에… 실질임금 3개월 연속 줄어

•   한국 7월 유통업체 매출: 7월 백화점 매출 전년比 32% 증가...반년 만에 증가율 최고

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukraine Tries to Make Southern Offensive a Turning Point in War

•   WSJ: Ukraine Aims to Build on Initial Gains in Southern Offensive

•   WSJ: Fed’s John Williams Says Rates Will Stay High for a While

※   Market expectations for interest-rate cuts soon appear incorrect, says New York Fed president

•   WSJ: Fed’s Barkin Says Central Bank Will do What it Takes to Lower Inflation

•   WSJ: Biden Still Undecided on Chinese Tariffs, Commerce Secretary Says

※   Some cabinet members, including Gina Raimondo, think a limited tariff reduction would help U.S. businesses and consumers

•   WSJ: Europe Braces for Russia Gas Disruption This Week—and Years of Higher Energy Prices Ahead

•   WSJ: U.S. Stops Iran From Seizing an American Naval Drone

•   WSJ: Iran Sends First Shipment of Combat Drones to Russia

•   WSJ: China’s Property Market Has Slid Into Severe Depression, Real-Estate Giant Says

•   WSJ: Inflation Bets Recede After Powell Speech

•   WSJ: Why Stocks Got Jolted

•   WSJ: Some GOP States Push Back Against ESG Investing Trend

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Seeks to Add Whistleblower Complaint to Case for Scrapping Twitter Deal

•   WSJ: Exxon Escalates Dispute With Russia Over Barred Exit From Giant Oil Project

•   WSJ: Best Buy Posts Drop in Sales as Shoppers Pull Back on Electronics

•   WSJ: Best Buy Says Supply-Chain Strains Are Improving Heading Into Fall

•   WSJ: China Blazes Hazy New Trail to Tame Internet’s Algorithms

•   WSJ: HP Warns of Slowing Business Spending as PC Sales Sag

•   WSJ: Data Centers Are Unpopular. All the Better for Their Stocks.

•   WSJ: Google, Meta and Others May Soon Need to Disclose Pay on California Job Listings

•   WSJ: Texas Reports First Death of a Person Diagnosed With Monkeypox

•   WSJ: Mikhail Gorbachev, Reformer of Soviet Union and Its Last Leader, Dies at 91

•   NYT: Biden’s Student Loan Plan Sets Off Fierce Debate Among Economists

•   NYT: China Sets Key Communist Party Congress for Mid-October

•   NYT: Russia’s Occupation of Nuclear Plant Gives Moscow a New Way to Intimidate

•   NYT: A Frontline Shadow Economy: Ukrainian Units Swap Tanks and Artillery

•   NYT: Why Pakistan was hit so hard

•   NYT: How German Companies Are Staring Down Putin’s Threat to Cut Off Gas

•   WP: Ukraine lures Russian missiles with decoys of U.S. rocket system

•   WP: The White House’s tricky comparison between student loan relief and GOP tax cuts

•   FT: Gazprom calls complete stop on gas deliveries to France’s Engie

※   Russian group cites lack of payment for contracts after Engie said deliveries would dwindle

•   FT: Eurozone inflation forecast to stay higher for longer as gas prices surge

•   FT: Winter is coming for the west’s energy alliance

•   FT: ‘On a par with the Russians’: rise in Chinese espionage alarms Europe

•   FT: The daunting in-tray facing Britain’s next prime minister

•   FT: US-China audit deal spurs hunt for devils in the details

•   FT: Climate envoy John Kerry seeks restart to US emissions talks with China

•   FT: Taiwan shoots at Chinese drone over outlying island for first time

※   Taipei seeks to balance assertive response against risk of sparking actual conflict

•   FT: Chinese borrowers pile pressure on banks with early mortgage payments

•   FT: IMF approves $1.1bn bailout package for Pakistan to help stave off default

•   FT: Sri Lanka raises taxes in effort to secure IMF bailout

•   FT: The growing evidence that Covid-19 is leaving people sicker

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Soft Landing Hinges on Job Market Doing Something Strange

•   Bloomberg: Bostic Says Inflation Progress Could Allow Slowing of Rate Hikes

•   Bloomberg: There’s a New Recession Canary in the Coal Mine, Morgan Stanley Says

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Says US Housing Downturn Has Further to Go as Rates Rise

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s Emergency Power Plan: The Options and Challenges Ahead

•   Bloomberg: ECB Tightening Should Be ‘Step by Step,’ Chief Economist Says

•   Bloomberg: Recession Fears Shouldn’t Delay Rate Hikes, ECB’s Nagel Says

•   Bloomberg: China Slowdown Means Contrasting Fortunes for Asia’s Exporters

•   Bloomberg: Xi’s Tech Crackdown Fuels Another Crisis: Out-of-Work Youth

•   Bloomberg: China Fills Void as Foreign Brands Flee Russian Market During War

•   Bloomberg: China’s Covid-Hit Tourism Season Deals Fresh Blow to the Economy

•   Bloomberg: China Gets More Aggressive in Pushing Back Against Weaker Yuan

•   Bloomberg: China’s Sichuan Pivots From Historic Drought to Flood Warnings

•   Bloomberg: China’s Covid Zero Tested as Broadest Outbreak Hits All Provinces

•   Bloomberg: China’s Premier Li Says Stimulus Now ‘More Forceful’ Than 2020

•   Bloomberg: Turkey’s Economy Powers On Through Worst Inflation in Two Decades

•   Bloomberg: World’s Hottest Economy Goes Cold as Chileans Run Out of Money

•   Bloomberg: Economists See India Raising Rates to 6% by December

•   Bloomberg: Africa’s Biggest Oil Producer Struggles Despite Price Bonanza

•   Bloomberg: Energy Crisis Will See Euro Rise Further Versus Pound, MUFG Says

•   Bloomberg: Russian Crude Shipments to Asia Slump to Lowest Since March

•   Bloomberg: Patchwork LNG Cargoes From Asia Are Helping Meet Europe’s Energy Demand

•   Bloomberg: Shortage of 50-Cent Chips Holds Up $50,000 Cars, TSMC Chief Says

•   Bloomberg: China’s Main Power Firm Shifts to Longer Debt Amid Project Boom

•   Bloomberg: Electric Vehicles Have China’s Massive Middle Market Surrounded

•   Bloomberg: Omicron-Targeting Covid Booster Shots Offer Only Slight Advantage

•   Reuters: Chorus backing big ECB rate hike grows

•   Reuters: Brazil 2023 budget bill to lower welfare program but will indicate gov't intention to increase it -sources

•   Reuters: Brazil's Treasury to present flexible spending cap rule proposal after election

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Attacks on major Iraqi gasfield drive out U.S. contractors

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Iraqi Kurdistan's oil output could halve without investment - documents

•   Reuters: Analysis: Aggressive Fed spurs worries over stock valuations

•   Reuters: Analysis: Surging energy prices create perfect storm for UK bonds

•   Reuters: Analysis: Musk's bold goal of selling 20 million EVs could cost Tesla billions

•   CNBC: Worst is yet to come: Economist Stephen Roach says U.S. needs ‘miracle’ to avoid recession

•   CNBC: UK inflation could top 22% as energy prices soar, Goldman Sachs warns

•   CNBC: Snap will lay off 20% of staff, report says

•   MarketWatch: Economist predicts a ‘whopper’ of recession in 2023 — and that’s not necessarily due to higher interest rates

•   Markets Insider: 'Rich Dad Poor Dad' author Robert Kiyosaki warns of an imminent market crash - and says downturns are the best times to get rich

•   SCMP: China’s yuan slides on hawkish Fed, but weakening Asian FX threaten export edge

•   SCMP: ‘Taiwan Strait militarisation’ marks a first for India as Chinese ‘spy ship’ row festers

•   SCMP: Young and out of a job in China: how Covid-19 is creating an unemployment crisis

•   SCMP: China’s highlights economy-boosting infrastructure push with mega US$10 billion canal project

•   SCMP: China EV makers including Nio, Xpeng, Li Auto take Covid-19 hit as outbreak closes Chengdu car show five days early

•   SCMP: China’s plastic problem: lack of circular economy stifling ‘necessary’ reform of high-pollution industry

•   Nikkei Asia: Inflation tax hits $4.5tn in U.S., Europe amid global price hikes

•   Nikkei Asia: Toyota's global vehicle output drops again; annual target in doubt

•   Nikkei Asia: Honda chases next big thing in EVs: solid-state batteries

•   Nikkei Asia: Frustrated Evergrande bondholders push own plan for debt restructuring

•   Nikkei Asia: Farming out: China's overseas food security quest

•   Nikkei Asia: Storing data on floppy disks? Japan tells bureaucracy time to stop

•   Economic Times: India's economy can touch $20 trillion by 2047, says EAC-PM Chairman Debroy

•   매경(P1): 내년 예산 639조…'퍼주기 재정' 시대 끝

※   기재부: "따뜻한 나라, 역동적 경제, 건전한 재정" 2023년 예산안 및 2022~2026년 국가재정운용계획

•   매경: 건전재정 작심한 尹정부…국가채무 급증 5년만에 제동걸었다

•   매경: 내년 세수 400조…고물가에 부가세 늘어

•   매경: '24조 허리띠죄기' 4급 이상 공무원 임금동결

•   매경: 반지하서 지상 이사 땐 5천만원 무이자대출 [尹정부 첫 예산안]

•   매경: 병장 월130만원…尹공약 밀어붙이기

•   매경: 반도체 1조…7대 전략기술 4조5천억 투자

•   매경: 文정부 때 만든 지역화폐 다 사라지나…내년 예산 전액삭감

•   매경(P1): 전문가 80% "내년에도 집값 하락"

•   매경: "금리 치솟고 주택정책 실망"…집값 상승전망 4개월새 확 뒤집혀

•   매경: 집값 계속 떨어지는데…무주택자 내집 마련 적기는 언제?

•   매경(P1): 직장인 건보료 月2천원 더낸다

•   매경: 7년 내내 오른 건보료율…정부, 文케어 개혁안 곧 발표

•   매경: 한국판 내셔널 몰…'보훈성지' 용산에 만든다

•   매경: 택시 택배·공유차 공항주차…혁신서비스 다 막힌 한국

•   매경: 10년간 축적해둔 공공데이터…민간에 풀면 혁신 불붙어

•   매경: 뿔난 정부…'美전기차 보조금 중단' 맞대응 카드 만지작

•   매경: "재산 숨기고 새출발기금으로 빚 탕감?…도덕적 해이 막을 대책 다 세워놨다"

•   매경: 수주 호황에 인력난 빠진 조선업계…현대重그룹 3社 '인력 빼가기' 논란

•   매경: 국감시즌 돌아오자 바짝 긴장하는 이 종목

•   한경(P1): 2030년 원전비중 24%→33%로 대폭 확대

※   산업부: ｢제10차 전력수급기본계획｣ 총괄분과위 실무안 공개

•   한경(P1): 농협은행, 금리인하 수용률 1위

•   한경: "승진하면 대출 금리 인하되죠?"…4건 중 1건만 받아들였다

•   한경: 예대금리차 이어 금리인하요구권까지…"금융사 줄 세우기 부작용 우려"

•   한경: 내년 조세부담률 22.6%…10년 만에 하락

•   한경: GTX 사업 218억 늘려 '속도전'

•   한경: '세금 일자리' 3년 만에 100만개 밑으로…신기술 인재 20만명 키운다

•   한경: 호봉제 탓…韓 세대간 임금격차 '세계 최대'

•   한경: 소득 상위 20%가 받은 '현물복지'…하위 20%의 2배

•   한경: 1주택자 종부세 타협점 찾나…秋 '공제액 12억' 절충안 제시

•   한경: 현대차·SK·두산 등 241곳 참여…국내 최대 수소산업 전시회 개막

•   한경: 암호화폐 2조 '불법 외환거래' 꼬리 잡혔다

•   서경(P1): "지금은 주식 담을 때…무주택자, 내년 이 시기 노려라" [머니트렌드 2022]

•   서경: [머니트렌드]“내년 상반기까지 무주택자 급할 것 없어…생활권내 10~20% 조정 급매물 노려라”

•   서경: SOC 10% 줄여 건전 재정 속도…문화 분야도 6.5% 삭감 8.5조

•   서경: "고준위방폐장 2035년 확보…처분시설 2050년부터 운영"

•   서경: "원가 압력 못견뎌"… 종이값 7% 또 오른다

•   조선: 납품단가연동제 시작 전부터 삐걱… 신청 대기업 5곳뿐

•   조선비즈: ‘숨은 규제’ 개선 나선 정부…인증 절차 간소화하고 사업 지원 기준 합리화

•   조선비즈: 대만 TSMC, 삼성 겨냥한 듯 “우린 설계·생산 다 하는 경쟁자와 달리 믿고 맡겨도 된다”

•   조선비즈: 삼성디스플레이, QD-OLED 본격 확장…제품 늘리고, 생산역량 증대

•   조선비즈: 추경호 “8月 물가 상승률 6% 안 넘을 것”

•   조선비즈: “온종일 환율 확인하는 게 일”… 금값된 달러에 속 타는 사람들

•   조선비즈: 힘 못 쓰는 ESG… “경기 침체 우려 땐 관심 적을 수밖에”

•   조선비즈: 앞다퉈 가져가던게 엊그제 같은데… 공동주택용지 외면하는 건설사들

•   조선비즈: 전 세계에 단 3종… 용두사미 수소車 ‘그린워싱’ 논란

•   인베스트조선: 이번엔 정공법인 줄…또 우회로 택한 현대차그룹의 아쉬운 소통 방식

•   동아: [단독]삼성-현대, SM엔터와 ‘팀코리아’ 구성, 670조원 사우디 ‘네옴시티’ 수주 나서

•   동아: “합리적 시장가 형성에 기여” “공기업 회계 손실 우려” 찬반 팽팽

•   동아: SH 김헌동 사장 “서울 아파트 6억 원에 공급해도 30% 이익 남아”

•   서울: [단독] 접종 여부 상관없이 입국 전 코로나 검사 폐지

•   세계: 기업 ‘RE100’ 가입 느는데… 한국만 재생에너지 ‘나홀로 감축’ [뉴스 투데이]

•   경향: 원전에만 매달리는 정부…탄소중립 실현 가능할까

•   경향: 청년 ‘1억 통장’, 결국 ‘4000만원 통장’ 됐다

•   머니투데이(P1): 이복현 금감원장 "증권사 공매도 검사, 제재보다 시스템 개선 목적"

•   머니투데이(P1): 650조 네옴시티, 'K-건설' 품으로‥해외수주 연 500억불 '시동'

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 이번엔 소형원전 수출길 열리나

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "고금리·역전세난 무섭다" 월세살이 급증...집값 약세 전환, 전세 기피 부추겨

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]한전기술, 국민연금 ‘블랙리스트’ 올랐다

•   아시아경제(P1): 폴란드 수출 대박에 방산 4사, 상반기 해외매출 20% 넘었다

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]2030 타깃 전세금 ‘먹튀’ 기승..대위변제 2년새 4배 늘어

•   디지털타임스: "규제 입법 쉽게 만들어지는 관행 개선"

•   이데일리: 고기능성 방화문 수급차질 빚나..‘안전 Vs 中企 보호’ 갈등

•   이데일리: 동반위 '중기 적합업종' 무용론…대기업·중소기업 모두 '불만'

•   이데일리: “산업 경쟁력 저하 우려..중기 적합업종 제도 손질 이뤄져야”

•   이데일리: 원자재 1%p 오를 때 생산자 물가 0.13%p 상승…휘발유 등 석유정제 직격탄

※   한국은행: 조사통계월보 2022년 8월호

•   이데일리: 택시대란 대안 ‘탄력호출요금제’ 거론…플랫폼 업계 “실효성 글쎄”

•   이데일리: 경매시장도 찬바람…강남 '똘똘한 한 채'도 유찰

•   연합: 오후 9시 전국 10만790명 확진…1주 전보다 3만3693명↓

•   연합: 외국인 건보 '먹튀'?…지난해 외국인 재정수지 5천125억원 흑자

•   연합: 산업부, 일부 부서명 변경…"새 정부 국정철학 반영"

•   뉴스1: [단독]얼어붙은 코인 투자…은행 가상자산 거래소 수수료 수입 '반토막'

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Robert J. Barro): Understanding Recent US Inflation

•   Project Syndicate(Ilan Goldfajn, Eduardo Levy Yeyati): Latin America’s Triple Policy Challenge

•   Project Syndicate(Andrew Sheng, Xiao Geng): Sustainable Development Is a Matter of Market Design

•   Project Syndicate(Slavoj Žižek): Ukraine’s Tale of Two Colonizations

•   FT(Martin Wolf): Tough economic times lie ahead

•   FT(Sylvie Kauffmann): War in Ukraine has shaken the EU’s power dynamics

•   FT(Lex): Energy prices: volatility of German power smacks of market dislocation

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Iran Tells the Truth About Inspections and the Nuclear Deal

•   WSJ(Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.): Europe’s Winter of Living Bravely

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Europe’s Gonna Party Like It’s 1979

•   WP(Henry Olsen): Why interest rates will keep going up

•   WP(Paul Waldman): If Republicans take the House, they’re going to impeach Joe Biden

•   WP(Paul Waldman, Greg Sargent ): Biden’s victory lap on green jobs: The politics of the future?

•   WP(Ai Weiwei): Why Xi’s ‘united front’ is vital to the artificial concept of a ‘Chinese nation’

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): As Natural Gas Prices Soar, UK Needs a Real Energy Plan

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): Pakistan Could Have Averted Its Climate Catastrophe

•   Bloomberg(Conor Sen): Don’t Sweat a Housing Crash as Long as Wages Are Rising

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Jerome Powell Can’t Count on a Labor Market Miracle

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Junk Bond Traders Ought to Check In With Economists

•   Bloomberg(James Stavridis): Putin Can Be Pressured to Pull Troops From Ukraine Nuclear Plant

•   Bloomberg(Mark Gilbert): Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant: The World Must Avoid a Chernobyl Redux

•   CNN(Patrick De Haan): We have finally gotten some relief at the pump. But it may not last long