Global Economic Monitor 220816

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks, dollar gain despite surprise weak China data

※   Wall Street indexes close higher

※   China’s central bank cuts rates after disappointing data

※   Oil falls about 3%, safe-haven gold drops 1%

※   Benchmark 10-year yields weaken

•   China: China Bonds Rally as Rate Cut Reinforces Split With Treasuries

•   Oil: Oil Settles Below $90 as China Outlook Sours, Iran Talks Advance

※   China’s apparent crude demand drops around 10% y/y in July

•   Natural gas: European Gas Surges as Heat and Drying Rivers Drive Demand

•   Metals: Weak China data sparks industrial metals sell-off

•   Grains: Soy dives on China's economic uncertainty

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin tops $25,000 for the first time since June before slipping

[Indicators]

•   Global Q2 GDP: Inflation drives global economy to first contraction since COVID

•   Global Jul. Supply chain index(Morgan Stanley): Supply Chain Pressures Ebbed in July

•   US Aug. NAHB housing market index: US Homebuilder Confidence Hits Worst Slump Since 2007 Collapse

•   US Aug. Empire State manufacturing index: New York Manufacturing Plunges by Second-Most in Data to 2001

•   Germany Jul. PPI: Germany's Wholesale Prices Rose Strongly in July, But There Are Signs of Easing

•   China Jul. Industrial production, etc.: China’s Growth Slowed Across All Fronts in July, Prompting Unexpected Rate Cut

※   Move came after a month in which retail sales, property prices and youth unemployment worsened

•   China Jul. Home prices: China Home Prices Fall for 11th Month as Mortgage Crisis Deepens

•   China Jul. Youth employment: China’s Youth Unemployment Rate Rises to Another Record

•   China MLF rate: China’s Central Bank Cuts Key Policy Rates

•   Bloomberg: China Faces Risk of Even Weaker Growth, Economists Say

•   Japan Q2 GDP: Japanese Economy Recovers Prepandemic Size With 2.2% Growth

•   Brazil Jun. Economic activity index: Brazil’s Economy Grows More Than Forecast Before Relief Measures

•   Indonesia Jul. Balance of trade: Indonesia's Trade Surplus Narrowed in July as Commodities Rally Cooled

•   Thailand Q2 GDP: Thai Economy Grows Slower Than Estimated Amid Inflation Risk

•   Global Q2 Notebook PC Shipments: Notebook PC Shipments Fall -15% in Q2 2022 Due to Depressed Consumer Demand

•   한국 7월 자동차 산업 동향: 車수출 月 50억弗 첫 돌파…친환경차 5만대 넘어

[News]

•   WSJ: Merrick Garland Weighed Search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago for Weeks

•   WSJ: Why Local Governments Trail Private Employers in Hiring

•   WSJ: Ukraine Urges Civilians to Leave Kherson as It Prepares Bid to Retake Russian-Held Territory

•   WSJ: China Restarts Military Drills in Response to Latest U.S. Lawmakers’ Visit to Taiwan

•   WSJ: What a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan Would Mean for Global Business

•   WSJ: Iran Says Some Issues Still Pending as Deadline for Nuclear Deal Looms

•   WSJ: William Ruto Declared Winner of Kenyan Presidential Election

•   WSJ: Investors Are Betting Yet Again That Inflation Will Cool

•   WSJ: Federal Reserve Finalizes Guidelines for Access to Its Payment Systems

•   WSJ: Wall Street Deal Making Faces Greater Scrutiny, Delays Under FTC’s Lina Khan

•   WSJ: SoftBank Vision Fund Drew Big Persian Gulf Investors. Their Bets Are Floundering.

•   WSJ: Dan Loeb’s Third Point Calls for Disney to Spin Off ESPN, Refresh Board

•   WSJ: Walmart Reaches Video-Streaming Deal to Offer Paramount+ to Members

•   WSJ: Freight Demand Is Moderating Heading Toward the Fourth Quarter

•   WSJ: HBO Cuts About 70 Staffers as Parent Looks to Trim Costs

•   WSJ: Weak Yen Aids Toyota, Other Big Japanese Companies

•   WSJ: Betting on Corporate Travel Is Risky Business

•   NYT: Giuliani Is Told He Is a Target of Trump Election Inquiry in Georgia

•   NYT: Falling Oil Prices Defy Predictions. But What About the Next Chapter?

•   NYT: Oil Prices Fall on Signs That China’s Economy Is Sputtering

•   NYT: To Escape the War, Ukraine’s Factories Are Moving West

•   NYT: Troops, Noodles and Familial Love: China Lays Out Its Ideal Taiwan

•   NYT: Iran Denies Any Involvement in Rushdie Attack

•   NYT: Myanmar Widens Arrests and Slaps Aung San Suu Kyi With More Prison Time

•   NYT: If the Job Market Is So Good, Why Is Gig Work Thriving?

•   WP: Election deniers march toward power in key 2024 battlegrounds

•   WP: Inside Ukraine’s captured nuclear plant, explosions and constant fear

•   WP: Brexit is Boris Johnson’s singular achievement. How well is it working?

•   FT: UK becomes first country to approve Omicron-specific Covid booster

•   FT: Brexit intensifies labour shortages as companies struggle to hire

•   FT: The semiconductor boom: has the UK missed its chance?

•   FT: Can the UK limit energy costs this winter?

•   FT: Brazil’s Centrão: the political kingmakers propping up Bolsonaro

•   FT: Slow wind farm approvals risk green goals, say renewable energy groups

•   Bloomberg: The Fed’s Past Crises Hold Secrets to Tackling Future Recessions

•   Bloomberg: Eight Crises That Provided Key Lessons for the Fed

•   Bloomberg: ‘Dr. Doom’ Roubini Sees Either US Hard Landing or Uncontrolled Inflation

•   Bloomberg: US Inflation Reduction Act Is a Climate Bill by Another Name

•   Bloomberg: Economists Say a Euro-Zone Recession Is Now More Likely Than Not

•   Bloomberg: Rhine River Shrinks Further as Some Barges Halt Transport

•   Bloomberg: Key European Power Price Doubles in Two Months as Crisis Deepens

•   Bloomberg: Irish Trade With Britain, Northern Ireland Climbs Despite Brexit

•   Bloomberg: Russia Cranks Up Bootleg Economy and Offers Rare Tally of Import

•   Bloomberg: China Faces Risk of Even Weaker Growth, Economists Say

•   Bloomberg: Why US-China Competition Is Heating Up in the Pacific

•   Bloomberg: ‘No One Immune’ Amid China Property Turmoil, JPMorgan Says

•   Bloomberg: Everyday Inflation Creeps Up in One of World’s Few Rate Holdouts

•   Bloomberg: Jokowi Set to Unveil Strict Budget Plans Amid Soaring Subsidies

•   Bloomberg: China’s Airlines Could Join the Multibillion-Dollar Exit From US Stock Markets

•   Bloomberg: Global Funds Return for China Sovereign Bonds, Snub Other Debt

•   Bloomberg: Russia’s Oil Resilience Faces Bigger Test as EU Ban Looms

•   Bloomberg: Russia’s Crude Shipments to Asia Tumble to Post-Invasion Low

•   Bloomberg: Apple Sets Return-to-Office Deadline of Sept. 5 After Delays

•   Bloomberg: Why Charging a Car Needs to Be as Easy as Filling Up With Gas

•   Bloomberg: Solar Panels Piling Up at US Border on Xinjiang Forced Labor Law

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Chinese Shun Debt and Pile Up Savings, Threatening Global Growth Engine

•   Reuters: Ignoring Ukraine setbacks, Putin touts 'superior' Russian weapons exports

•   Reuters: Exclusive: German gas levy to be set at 2-3 euro cents per kilowatt hour

•   Reuters: German energy market would collapse without gas levy - Habeck

•   Reuters: Brazil central bank chief flags March 2024 inflation outlook as 2023 worsens

•   Reuters: As Fed warns of turbulence ahead, markets remove their seat belts

•   Reuters: Analysis: Iranian nuclear deal limbo serves both sides

•   Reuters: Analysis: Fed faces balance sheet dilemma as U.S. economy slows

•   CNBC: Goldman sees a ‘feasible but difficult path’ for the Fed to defeat inflation without a recession

•   CNBC: U.S. freight shipping rates have likely peaked, according to new Cass Freight Index data, in another sign that inflation is easing

•   Fox Business: Bear market poised to last longer despite recent Wall Street rally, Morgan Stanley warns

•   SCMP: Tech war: new US export controls block China from achieving its semiconductor ambitions

•   SCMP: China’s ban on Taiwan imports leaves some consumers wondering where to get their food fix

•   SCMP: India marks 75th independence anniversary with rapid growth, deep inequality

•   Economic Times: Higher cost pressure mars Q1 show for India Inc

•   Economic Times: Easing of inflation in July may not be a cause for celebration, says Nomura

•   매경(P1): 반도체 없어 못판다더니…현대차 세계 판매량 첫 3위

•   매경: 현대차의 대약진, 비결은 친환경·재고 관리

•   매경: 매출 300조 시대 여는 삼성…과감한 투자로 기술 초격차를

•   매경: 삼성 역사상 첫 노조…회사발전 추동력되게 소통 나서야

•   매경: 日서 '소부장 독립' 시작하자…이 나라 존재감 확 커졌다

•   매경: 탄소배출권 거래제 손본다…평균보다 배출 적어야 유리

•   매경: [세종 인사이드] 긴축재정에…더 치열해진 예산 확보전

•   매경: LNG 대란 앞두고 韓기업 '선점' 빛났다

•   매경: 45세 회장님의 파격…동년배 기술자에 회사미래 맡겼다

•   매경: 테슬라에 무슨 일이…7월 한국서 한대도 못팔아

•   매경: "동영상 만지니 느낌 팍 오네"…대기업들 앞다퉈 사간다는 이것

•   매경: 치솟는 밥값에…2천원대 편의점 도시락 등장

•   매경: '분양가 상한제' 아파트도 수도권서 청약 대거 미달

•   매경: [MK TECH REVIEW] "한판 붙자 넷플·디즈니"…몸집 키우는 티빙·LG유플

•   한경(P1): 인구 재앙…지자체 절반 '소멸위험'

•   한경: 50년 뒤 한국 현실 충격 그 자체…'경기도가 사라지는 셈'

•   한경: 2067년 생산인구와 노인인구 같아진다

•   한경: 韓 고령화 속도 세계 1위…2045년 日 넘어 '가장 늙은 나라'

•   한경: 학령인구 줄어드는데 학교는 왜 늘어나나 했더니…

•   한경: 빚 줄이거나 수익 늘린 공공기관엔 성과급 더 준다

•   한경: 로봇개가 현장 안전관리…'디지털 건설시대' 속도

•   한경: 투심 위축에 쪼그라든 IPO…올 증시 입성, 작년의 4분의 1

•   한경: 덩치 계속 커지지만…'수익성 회복' 숙제 받아든 네·카

•   한경: 판 커지는 대체육 시장…'식물성 고기' 이어 '배양육' 개발 경쟁

•   한경: 급속히 진화하는 '가상 인간'…엔터테인먼트 미래 바꾼다

•   한경: "여름 휴가지?…'실시간 데이터 분석' 보고 결정"

•   한경: 동영상·게임 등 대용량 콘텐츠 급증…격화되는 '망 사용료' 갈등

•   서경(P1): 삼성 협력사 'RE100' 동참 파악…이재용, ESG경영 속도낸다

•   서경: "RE100 더 늦으면 경쟁력 약화"…이재용 '탄소중립 결단'만 남았다

•   서경(P1): '파죽지세' K웹툰, 올 거래액 4조 찍는다

•   서경: 'CATL 6배' 2.4만개 특허의 산실…LG엔솔 '꿈의 배터리' 수년내 상용화

•   서경: 재정지출 졸라매는데…몸집 불리려는 국토부

•   서경: 인플레에 보조금 늘린 선진국…"韓도 물가 안꺾이면 재정부담"

•   서경: 美·中, 자국산 전기차만 보조금 지급…韓은 중국산만 배불려

•   서경: [IT슈]5G '50GB 중간요금제' 나올 수 있을까

•   조선(P1): 尹 대북 ‘담대한 구상’... 경제뿐 아니라 정치·군사 협력 로드맵 준비

•   조선(P1): 포퓰리즘이 갉아먹은 경제… 이탈리아 ‘잃어버린 10년’

•   조선: 현금성 복지만 10여개… 연금 수령도 62세로 당겼다

•   조선: 21개 정당 이합집산, 내각 평균수명 1.12년… 일관된 정책추진 어려워

•   조선(P1): [NOW] 추석 차례상 작년 12만원, 올핸 15만원 육박

•   조선: 우주 新냉전… 확대되는 미국 주도 ‘아르테미스’

•   조선: 매물 쌓이는 6대 광역시, 10년만에 집값 최대폭 하락

•   조선: 적자 기업도 무상증자 펑펑… 20곳중 주가 오른 회사 ‘0′

•   조선: “예탁금 한달째 55조원서 안 줄어… 증시 바닥 다지는 중”

•   조선: 공매도 이젠 무관심? 수강생 94%나 줄어

•   조선비즈: 1976년 이후 반도체 판매 첫 역성장… 실적 부진 전망 ‘속출’

•   조선비즈: 45조 軍 로봇 시장 잡아라… K방산, 군용 로봇 개발에 매진

•   조선비즈: “할 말은 한다” 독립리서치, ‘매수’ 일색 증권 업계서 ‘승승장구’

•   중앙: 올여름 전력 ‘보릿고개’ 무사히 넘겼다

•   중앙: 정부가 다 지어주니…대부분 적자인데, 공항만 20여개 될 판

•   동아(P1): 인구 대비 코로나 확진자, 한국이 세계 1위

•   한국(P1): [단독] 수익형 부동산인데 죄다 전세... 신축 오피스텔도 '깡통전세' 경보

•   한국(P1): [단독] 역대 '빚 탕감' 수혜자, 10명 중 6명은 다 갚았다

•   국민(P1): [단독] 文 정부 ‘통계 왜곡’ 의혹… 통계청, 감사원 감사 받는다

•   국민: 반도체 혹한기 온다… 돌파구 찾는 삼성전자·SK하이닉스

•   국민: [Car스텔라] 언제 방전될까 조마조마 전기차… ‘보조배터리’로 불안감 해소한다

•   서울(P1): 첫 직장 정규직 확률, 10%P 줄었다

•   세계: 7개월째… 은행권 가계대출 줄고 기업대출 느는 까닭은?

•   머니투데이(P1): '바이든, 보고 있나'···최태원·빌 게이츠, 소형원전 1조 투자 '선도'

•   머니투데이: "한전, 예상보다 더 심각"…15조 '역대급 적자'에 떨고 있는 기업들

•   머니투데이: 서울 미분양주택 급증? 알고보니...값비싼 '무늬만 아파트' 혼쭐났다

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 250만+α 공급계획에 '반지하 대책' 담는다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 주가 하락에 속타는 주식연계채권... 발행기업들 원금상환 부담만 가중

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 뿌리산업 붕괴 가속화… 인력난에 기술 전수마저 끊긴다 [악화되는 기업환경]

•   디지털타임스: [르포] "강남은 2028년에 간다니"… `반쪽개통`에 2억 내려도 문의 뚝

•   이데일리(P1): "쪼그라든 K건설 '원 팀'만이 살길"

•   이데일리: 중동 플랜트·국내 주택사업 안주 안돼…고부가 해외 개발사업 도전해야

•   이데일리: 벡텔·호흐티프 등 M&A·포트폴리오 다각화로 활로 찾아

•   이데일리: ‘엄벌 경고’ 후 반토막 났던 공매도 거래, 2주 만에 쑥

•   이데일리: 전철 내려 드론택시 환승..잠실~여의도 5분 만에 간다

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 8만1663명 확진…어제보다 2만1873명 늘어

•   연합: 종부세 1주택 특례, 이번주 국회처리 안되면 올해 적용 '대혼란'

•   전자신문: 10차 전기본, 이르면 이달 초안 공개…수요 전망 정밀하게 바꾼다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Gernot Wagner): The Clean-Energy Race Is On

•   FT(Editorial Board): This is not the way to choose Britain’s next prime minister

•   FT(Edward Yardeni): Why the Fed might be at ‘neutral’ already on monetary policy

•   WSJ(James Freeman): Democrats’ Great Fossil Fuel Bonfire of 2023

•   WSJ(Nikki Haley): Free Enterprise, Not Central Planning, Will Beat China

•   NYT(Indrajit Samarajiva): Sri Lanka Collapsed First, but It Won’t Be the Last

•   WP(Dana Milbank): That red wave is looking more like a ripple. Here’s why.

•   WP(Megan McArdle): Yes, we need more electric vehicles. But subsidies aren’t the answer.

•   Bloomberg(Mohamed A. El-Erian): Federal Reserve Needs to Resist the Easy Path on Inflation

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): PBOC Surprise Suggests China’s Outlook Is Truly Dire

•   Bloomberg(Justin Fox): How Inflation Can Be Both 0% and 8.5% at the Same Time

•   Bloomberg(Maria Tadeo): Putin Weaponizing Winter Is a Likelihood Europe Isn't Prepared For

•   CNN(Johnny C. Taylor, Jr.): Fully remote work could soon vanish

•   MarketWatch(Mark Hulbert): No, a strong dollar doesn't pose much of a threat to company earnings — or to stocks

•   Fox Business(Larry Kudlow): This is $93 billion in direct attacks on fossil fuels and energy independence