Global Economic Monitor 220826

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks rise, U.S. bond yields ease ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech

•   Natural gas: European Energy Soars as Pressure Mounts on Leaders to Ease Pain

•   Electricity: French Power Hits 900 Euros as Nuclear Outages Amplify Crisis

•   Metals: Copper claws higher on Chinese infrastructure hopes

•   Grains: U.S. soybeans, wheat, corn fall as traders book profits

•   한국: 기준금리 인상, 예상치 부합…코스피, 이틀째 올라 2,470대 회복

•   한국: 한미 금리 키맞추기에 원화값 반등

[Indicators]

•   US Q2 GDP(rev.): U.S. GDP Fell Less Than Previously Thought in Second Quarter

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: US Jobless Claims Fall for Second Week, a Sign of Labor Strength

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates(Freddie Mac): Mortgage Rates Rise to Two-Month High at 5.55%

•   Germany Aug. Ifo business climate: German Business Confidence Falls as Economy Already Contracting

•   India Aug. Consumer sentiments: Consumer sentiments muted in August: CMIE

•   한국 기준금리: 사상 첫 '4회 연속' 기준금리 인상…물가·환율 방어

※   한국은행: 통화정책방향(2022.08.25)

※   한국은행: 경제전망(2022.8월)

•   한국 2022년 고용형태: 조선업 10명 중 6명은 '하청근로자'

•   한국 1분기 임금근로 일자리 동향: 일자리 늘긴 하는데…5명 중 4명이 50대 이상

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): 아파트값 낙폭 10년만에 최대

•   한국 주간 아파트 수급동향(부동산원): 매매·전세, 물건 넘치고 수요는 없다…수급지수 동반 하락

[News]

•   WSJ: Power Outage in Southern Ukraine Raises Tensions Over Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant

※   The death toll climbed in Russian strikes on Ukraine, and Putin signed a decree to boost Russia’s armed forces

•   WSJ: Biden Urged to Act Swiftly on Ukraine Nuclear Plant

•   WSJ: Fed Watchers Scrutinize Jackson Hole for Hints on Interest-Rate Outlook

•   WSJ: Fed Officials Ready to Raise Rates Again, but Unclear on How Much

•   WSJ: Fed’s Bostic Says More Strong Data Could Tip Fed Toward 75 Basis Point Rate Increase

•   WSJ: Transcript: WSJ Interview With Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

•   WSJ: IRS Revenue Boost From Stronger Enforcement Is Scaled Back in CBO Estimate

•   WSJ: Judge Orders Justice Department to Release Redacted Affidavit Leading to Search of Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Home

※   Order comes after government submitted redactions to the document detailing evidence earlier Thursday

•   WSJ: Biden Student-Loan Forgiveness Raises Inflation, Budget Risks

•   WSJ: Biden’s Student Loan Forgiveness Could Test Legal Powers

•   WSJ: U.S., China Near Deal to Allow Audit Inspection of N.Y.-Listed Chinese Companies

•   WSJ: OPEC President Is Open to Cutting Oil Production

•   WSJ: Finland, a Country Built on Military Self-Reliance, Prepares for NATO Collective Defense

•   WSJ: Energy Crisis Squeezes Smaller Firms That Power Europe’s Economy

•   WSJ: China’s New Economic Efforts Fall Short, Economists Say

•   WSJ: Pinched by Housing Downturn, Chinese Families Rein In Spending

•   WSJ: Taiwan Proposes Big Jump in Military Spending Amid Chinese Pressure

•   WSJ: Citigroup Plans to Wind Down Russian Consumer Operations

•   WSJ: Cloud Companies’ Outlook Cools as Customers Tighten Spending

•   WSJ: France Considers Taxing Private Jet Use in Fight Against Climate Change

•   WSJ: The Backlash Against Quiet Quitting Is Getting Loud

•   NYT: Why Europe’s Electricity Prices Are Soaring

•   NYT: The Front-Runner to Replace Boris Johnson Wants to Be a New Iron Lady

•   NYT: U.N. Report on Rights Abuses in Xinjiang May Be Delayed Again

•   NYT: How China Could Choke Taiwan

•   WP: What it’s like to toil in India’s dangerous, unrelenting heat

•   FT: ECB rate-setters worried weak euro would fuel higher inflation

※   ECB: Account of the July monetary policy meeting

•   FT: Behold, labour’s coming victory over capital (?)

•   FT: Agustín Carstens: ‘It’s very important central banks let people know what is happening’

•   FT: UK faces ‘cost of doing business’ crisis as energy bills rise fourfold

•   FT: Avoiding the nuclear option on Northern Ireland

•   FT: China’s distressed asset funds struggle to profit from collapsing property sector

•   FT: Angola president on track for re-election with reduced majority

•   FT: Hedge funds build biggest bet against Italian debt since 2008

•   FT: Yen weakness forces unprecedented PlayStation price rise

•   FT: The quantum computing bubble

•   FT: Scientists create ‘synthetic’ mouse embryos with brains and beating hearts

•   Bloomberg: Fed Can’t Blink After Being ‘Asleep at the Wheel,’ El-Erian Says

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s Energy Crisis Risks Dwarfing $279 Billion Rescue Cash

•   Bloomberg: Euro-Zone Is Already in Recession on Energy Squeeze, UBS Says

•   Bloomberg: Rhine Water Level Set to Fall Again at Key German Chokepoint

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s Widening Fertilizer Crisis Threatens Food Supplies

•   Bloomberg: These Are China’s 19 New Measures to Bolster Economic Growth

•   Bloomberg: These Are the Megaprojects in China’s $1 Trillion Infrastructure Plan

•   Bloomberg: China Starts Stealth Fightback Against Powell’s Strong Dollar

•   Bloomberg: Fragile Nations Burn Through IMF Lifelines for Support

•   Bloomberg: A Sick Economy Is Forcing Tehran’s Hand in Nuclear Deal Talks

•   Bloomberg: Lula Campaign Seeks to Win Middle Class Voters as Support Stalls

•   Bloomberg: Big Money Managers Fear the Revenge of the Fed on Jackson Hole Eve

•   Bloomberg: Global Bond Inflows to Emerging Asia Signal Shift in Outlook

•   Bloomberg: UK Gas Production Brings Some Respite in Mounting Energy Crisis

•   Bloomberg: Diesel Pinch Looms as World Seeks Relief From Pricey Gas

•   Bloomberg: Micron Seeks Tax Breaks for $160 Billion Chip Plant Near Austin

•   Bloomberg: US Corporate Profits Soar With Margins at Widest Since 1950

•   Bloomberg: Gap Pulls Full-Year Outlook on CEO Search and Economic Uncertainty

•   Bloomberg: Toyota, Honda Top List of Carmakers Facing Climate-Change Risks

•   Bloomberg: China Cracks Down on Rising Solar Prices Amid Disruptions

•   Bloomberg: Hydrogen Could Replace Coking Coal in Two Decades, South32 Says

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Chipmaking’s Next Big Thing Guzzles as Much Power as Entire Countries

•   Reuters: U.S. senator arrives in Taiwan, defying angry Beijing

•   Reuters: Spike in China tensions won't change U.S. Taiwan weapons policy, for now -sources

•   Reuters: Biden signs order on $52 billion chips law implementation

※   White House: FACT SHEET: President Biden Signs Executive Order to Implement the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022

•   Reuters: Decision to end ECB reinvestments takes back seat to rate hikes, sources say

•   Reuters: Germany's Scholz says energy transition reforms must be implemented in 2022

•   Reuters: UK consumers, facing inflation leap, cut spending on cards again

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Some Chinese financiers cold shoulder Beijing's property rescue call

•   Reuters: India's robust growth gives RBI room for more rate hikes - DBS

•   Reuters: Rising dollar may stymie Venezuela's efforts to combat inflation

•   Reuters: Stellantis plant in Sochaux halted over chip shortage

•   Reuters: Analysis: Hawkish Fed, strong U.S. economy will keep dollar king of currencies

•   Reuters: ANALYSIS-Heat or eat? Winter protests loom as energy poverty sweeps Europe

•   CNN: Meta's big problem: Everything about VR looks supremely uncool

•   CNBC: Nobel Prize-winning economist says he doesn’t see anything that resembles a recession in the U.S.

•   CNBC: A ‘housing recession’ won’t bring home prices down, economist says: Here’s why

•   CNBC: Meta to debut new VR headset in October, Mark Zuckerberg tells Joe Rogan

•   CNBC: Chinese EV maker Xpeng teases two new cars — and one will compete with Tesla’s Model Y

•   CNBC: Canceled sailings, stuck vessels, warehouse prices show U.S. ports are still struggling

•   SCMP: US tariffs on China goods are yesterday’s problem for exporters – it made some even stronger – but now they face a bigger threat

•   SCMP: China’s heatwave, power crunch adds to economic woes, inflation concerns even with rain set to fall

•   SCMP: Explainer | China economy: 7 ‘Xiconomic’ policies that have guided growth over the past decade

•   SCMP: Energy crunch under Shanghai’s heatwave send post-lockdown recovery into spasms in China’s commercial hub

•   Nikkei Asia: Mitsubishi set to join new Sakhalin-2 Russian operator

•   Nikkei Asia: Can Japan's new nuclear policy revive its creaking industry?

•   Nikkei Asia: China's power crunch and why SoftBank cut back on Alibaba

•   Nikkei Asia: China's Baidu reveals its first quantum computer, 'Qianshi'

•   Nikkei Asia: Indonesia's high-carbon nickel key challenge in global EV uptake

•   Mainichi: Japan retains economic view in Aug., warns of rising prices impact

•   Economic Times: Q1 GDP growth: High on services and base effect

•   매경(P1): "年 6%씩 척척" 연금부자 시대 온다

•   매경: 개미들 마음 놓고 투자하게…주주가치 훼손 '물적분할' 규제해야

•   매경: 김주현 "대주주 지분 매각계획 사전 공시 의무화"

•   매경(P1): [단독] 택시'콜'만 해도 9천원?…정부 호출비 3배 인상 추진

•   매경: '타다금지법' 안풀고 호출비 인상…"소비자 부담만 키운 꼼수"

•   매경: "길에서 택시 잡기 더 힘들겠네"…택시호출비 인상 어르신들 어쩌나

•   매경: "회식하고 택시 못타겠네"…서울택시 밤10시부터 심야 할증

•   매경: 현대차, 2천만원대 전기차 개발…'가성비' 중국산 잡는다

•   매경: 전 세계 자원보호주의 확대되는데…韓 기업 76%는 "조직·인력 축소"

•   매경: 신축 아파트일수록 집값 먼저 떨어졌다

•   매경: 장기보유 세제 감면 추진…'재건축 부담금' 완화 첫발

•   한경(P1): 윤석열 정부 '규제개혁 1호' 한달 만에 후퇴

•   한경: '대형마트 족쇄' 꼭 푼다더니…소상공인 반발하자 일단 물러서

•   한경(P1): 한국 원전, 이집트서 3조 '잭팟' 터졌다…13년 만에 축포

•   한경: 라면은 시작일 뿐…"요즘은 편의점 가기도 무서워요"

•   한경: 시금치 73% 뛰니…김밥·샐러드 줄줄이 올라

•   한경: 치즈·조미료도 오른다…가공식품 줄인상에 '물가정점론' 흔들

•   한경: 인구정책 패러다임 바꿔 '인구절벽 해법' 찾는다

•   한경: 폴더블폰 돌풍…부품사 신바람

•   한경: "60년 규제에 年 수천만원 손실"…냉동차 운송기사의 호소

•   한경: 예산 가장 많이 늘린 중기硏, 연구실적은 '바닥'

•   한경: '영끌족' 1인당 대출 年이자 1년 만에 129만원 늘었다

•   한경: '금리인하요구 수용률'로 금융사 줄 세우나

•   한경: "한국 주식 너무 싸네"…외국인, 강달러에도 5조 담았다

•   한경: 韓 금융자산 43%가 현금·예금…"노후 위해 주식·펀드 늘려야"

•   서경(P1): 몸값 치솟는 SW 마이스터고…일반고는 서울서 첫 통폐합

•   서경: 경험 못한 '거래 종말' 엄습…세입자 못구해 전세도 난리

•   서경: '소부장 국산화' 성과 품목 25개뿐…정부 지원 쏠림 현상도

•   서경: 은행 예적금금리 올렸다…1년 만기예금 4% 눈앞

•   서경: "금리 상승기 MZ세대는 1년짜리 적금에 올인"

•   서경: [단독] 지자체도 검증 참여…공시가격 투명성 높인다

•   조선(P1): ‘비정규직 제로 정책’이 비정규직 더 늘렸다

•   조선: 한국만 쓰는 ‘비정규직’ 용어… 범위가 너무 넓다

•   조선: 文정부 공공부문 ‘무늬만 정규직화’

•   조선: 유리지갑의 ‘건보료 설움’… 월급 7% 떼이는 시대

•   조선: 납품단가연동제 돌연 대찬성… 손바닥 뒤집듯 입장 바꾼 공정위

•   조선: 서학개미 대탈출… 환율 치솟자 美주식 최대 8000억원어치 순매도

•   조선: 근무 여건 좋아졌는데 직장인 만족도는 사상최저?… “가장 큰 원인은 상사”

•   조선비즈: [세종풍향계] “똥차가 새 차 막네”…'홍남기表 법안’에 막혀 우회로 찾는 尹정부 재정준칙

•   조선비즈: 韓 주력 낸드플래시 저가 공세로 점유율 3배 늘리겠다는 中 YMTC

•   조선비즈: 후보지 공개 앞두고 잡음 계속되는 공공재개발

•   조선비즈: LG이노텍, 테슬라 1조원대 카메라 모듈 수주 보도에 “협의 진행 중”

•   조선비즈: “시공만으론 못살아”… 자체사업 강화하는 건설사들

•   중앙: [단독]"소주성, 韓진보 총체적 실패" 前민주연 부원장의 반성문

•   중앙: 최태원 “영업이익이 기업가치 좌우하는 시대 끝났다”

•   동아(P1): 선제로비로 피해 줄인 日… 법 통과 뒤 대응 나선 韓

•   동아: ‘하청업체 기술 유용’ 과징금 10억→20억원으로 상향

•   문화(P1): [단독] “노조, 강경하게 가면 원하는 걸 얻어낼 것”… 화물연대 불법파업 독려한 민주당

•   문화(P1): ‘노동시장 이중구조’ 실태조사 착수

•   문화: “지금 4차접종하면 겨울까지 면역력 유지된다”

•   문화: “입국전 PCR 폐지 여부… 방역상황 고려 곧 결정”

•   문화: “탄력근로제 최대 1년으로 연장을” 벤처업계, 주52시간제 개선 요구

•   국민: 해커 표적으로 떠오른 자동차 “방어벽을 확보하라”

•   세계(P1): 소상공인에 58조 신규·대환자금 공급

•   경향(P1): 국가·사측의 손배소송 14년째…쌍용차 노동자 ‘끝나지 않는 고통’[파업 그 후, 손배폭탄이 남았다]

•   머니투데이(P1): AI가 10초 만에 그린 호랑이 그림…"가격 7배 뛰었다"

•   머니투데이: 문장 넘어 그림·영상·표정까지 읽는다...AI, 점점 더 사람처럼 진화

•   머니투데이: 네카오부터 이통사·LG까지 빅테크들 '초거대 AI' 상용화 속도전

•   머니투데이: '초거대 AI의 그늘'…수천억 슈퍼컴, 데이터는 "빅테크나 가능"

•   헤럴드경제(P1): [단독] 5년만에 도계위 소위 탈출…은마아파트 ‘재건축 급물살’

•   헤럴드경제: 가계대출 주는데...늘어난 전세대출 왜?

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 이재용-빌게이츠 합작품, 극빈국 위한 화장실 개발

•   파이낸셜뉴스: '보유세 도입’ 반대 여론 커지자… 항목서 슬그머니 삭제

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]상정조차 무산 위기, 발묶인 반도체특별법

•   아시아경제: 기약 없는 반도체특위 시즌2…골든타임 흘러간다

•   아시아경제: [시한넘기는 결산]'나랏돈 이렇게 써도 됩니까' 지적해도 무시되기 일쑤인 국회 시정요구

•   아시아경제: 최주선이 강조한 '이것'…디스플레이업계, 새 먹거리 '마이크로 OLED'

•   디지털타임스: 원희룡-김동연, 1기 신도시 2라운드 `개발용역` 대결

•   이데일리: 제2의 포켓몬빵은 누구…유통업계 ‘덕후노믹스’ 열풍

•   이데일리: “고점 찍었나”...달러예금 이달에만 55억달러 빠졌다

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 9만6968명 확진…어제보다 1만2천여명 줄어

•   연합: 단순 업무 로봇으로 대체…금융기관 자동화 시스템 확산

•   전자신문: “자율주행로봇 상용화 문턱 낮추자”…규제 해소 법안 줄줄이 대기

•   전자신문: 로봇도입기업 생산성 56% ↑, 불량률 58% ↓...로봇 실증사업 효과커

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Michael J. Boskin): False Advertising for the Inflation Reduction Act

•   Project Syndicate(Yu Yongding): The Importance of Asian Financial Cooperation

•   Project Syndicate(Andrés Velasco): Woke Politics Goes South

•   Project Syndicate(Dambisa Moyo): The Real Stakes at Jackson Hole This Year

•   FT(Editorial Board): Donald Trump now owns the Republicans

•   FT(Gillian Tett): Economists shouldn’t underestimate the power of a good story

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): The strange world of energy prices

•   FT(Richard Waters): Intel tries to regain its lost technology edge

•   FT(Katharine Neiss): Germany needs its very own Marshall Plan

•   FT(Lex): BoE/rates: rising reserve costs may prompt stealth tax on banks

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Biden’s Half-Trillion-Dollar Student-Loan Forgiveness Coup

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Granholm to Europe: Tough Luck

•   WSJ(John H. Cochrane): Nobody Knows How Interest Rates Affect Inflation

•   WSJ(James Freeman): Biden Bails Out the Price Gougers

•   WSJ(Kimberley A. Strassel): Student Debt Forgiveness Is Biden’s Bluto Moment

•   WSJ(Joseph C. Sternberg): How the Ukraine War Is Transforming Germany

•   WP(Keith B. Richburg): China plows ahead with its harsh zero-covid policy — despite the costs

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): China’s Economic Caution Is a Problem For Us All

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Symposium Is Rarely an Economic Waterloo

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): Jackson Hole Should Be a Mea Culpa for Central Bankers

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): A Surprise Winner as Emerging Markets Crumble

•   Bloomberg(Julian Lee): Russian Oil Producers Feel the Heat: Elements by Julian Lee

•   Bloomberg(Noah Feldman): Did Congress Really Rebuff the Supreme Court on Climate Rule?

•   Bloomberg(Maria Tadeo): Don't Try to Guess Putin's Next Move. Just Listen

•   MarketWatch(Rex Nutting): Inflation hasn’t been bad for everyone — companies are producing outsized profits

•   MarketWatch(obert Brusca): The Federal Reserve’s Powell has a lot of explaining to do

•   Fox Business(Larry Kudlow): Larry Kudlow on student loan handout: This is called 'election year politics'

•   Caixin(Gao Ruidong): Why China’s Regional Power Crunch Won’t Become a National Problem

•   한경(사설): 감세 자체를 비판할 것이지, 왜 '부자 감세'라고 선동하나

•   한경(사설): 가파른 '인구 절벽'…출산율 집착 말고 근본적 발상 전환을

•   세계(사설): 가팔라진 인구절벽 위기… 이민청 설립 공론화 나설 때

•   경향(사설): 심해지는 노동시장 이중구조, 더 이상 방치 안 된다

•   머니투데이(김하늬): 정부 부처가 설계하는 '민간주도'?