Global Economic Monitor 220805

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Oil drops with dollar on recession fears; Wall Street ends mixed

※   Oil hits pre-Ukraine lows as demand outlook worsens

※   Bank of England expects recession throughout 2023

※   Treasury yield curve inversion deepens

※   Dollar drops; sterling slides against euro

•   Natural gas: European Gas Steadies as Gazprom Signals More Turbine Delays

•   Metals: Copper rebounds as weaker dollar spurs short-covering

•   Grains: Wheat rebounds from 6-month low; soy climbs

•   한국: 코스피 외국인 순매수에 2,470대 상승…카카오그룹주 강세

[Indicators]

•   Global Jun. IC Sales: Cooling Semiconductor Sales Heighten Fears of a Global Recession

•   Global Jul. Supply chain pressure index: Global supply chain stress at 18-month low in July, NY Fed's index shows

•   US Jun. Balance of trade: U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows as Energy Exports Rise

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: U.S. Jobless Claims Rose Last Week to Near High for Year

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates(Freddie Mac): Mortgage Rates Drop Below 5% for First Time Since April

•   Germany Jun. Factory orders: German Orders Drop as Inflation, Supply Disruptions Prevail

•   UK Benchmark rate: Bank of England raises rates sharply and warns of 13% inflation by end of year

※   UK faces protracted recession and biggest squeeze on living standards in 60 years

※   BoE: Bank Rate increased to 1.75% - August 2022

※   FT: Bank of England serves up a shock with its intensely gloomy outlook

•   UK Jul. Construction PMI: UK construction activity falls for first time since start of 2021

•   China Jul. Infrastructure investment: China's infrastructure investment up 15% in July, set to maintain strong growth in H2

•   한국 상반기 개인회생·법인파산: “더 이상 버티기 힘들어”… 개인회생·법인파산 올해 들어 다시 증가 추세

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): 대출금리 인상에 마포도 3억 '뚝'…바닥 뚫린 서울 집값

※   매경: 역세권 대단지도 3억 뚝뚝…버티던 서초마저 하락 초읽기

[News]

•   WSJ: China Launches Live-Fire Drills, Missiles Around Taiwan After Pelosi Visit

※   Ship, plane and missile drills encircle island and come close to key ports; five missiles land within Japan’s exclusive economic zone

•   WSJ: China’s Drills Around Taiwan Give Hint About Its Strategy

•   WSJ: U.S. Delays Minuteman III Missile Test Amid Tensions Over Taiwan

•   WSJ: Ukraine Fires on Bridges, Rail Lines in Bid to Loosen Russia’s Grip on Kherson

•   WSJ: Ukraine Sees Path to Surging Grain Exports After First Shipment

•   WSJ: For Stricken Lebanon, Shipments of Ukrainian Grain Might Not Be Enough

•   WSJ: Biden Officials Declare Monkeypox a Public-Health Emergency

※   The declaration aims to speed up vaccine distribution as confirmed or suspected cases in the U.S. surpass 6,600

•   WSJ: Brittney Griner Sentenced to Nine Years in Prison for Bringing Drugs into Russia

•   WSJ: France’s Macron Wins Passage of Measures to Fight Inflation

•   WSJ: Death of Al Qaeda Leader Sets Off Succession Race for Terrorist Group

•   WSJ: Speculators Exit Agricultural Markets, Intensifying Crop Selloff

•   WSJ: Companies From Google to Pepsi Are Boosting Capital Spending

•   WSJ: Proposed Tax Break for Buying Electric Vehicles Is Too Hard to Get, Auto Makers Say

•   WSJ: Alibaba Posts First Revenue Decline Since Going Public

•   WSJ: Alibaba Passes Through the Storm Into the Slog

•   WSJ: TikTok Pares Pandemic-Era Perks in Return to Office Push

•   WSJ: Glencore Is Thriving in a More Dangerous World

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Suggests Big Tesla Factory Expansion Plans

•   NYT: More Americans Are Going Hungry, and It Costs More to Feed Them

•   NYT: Russia’s Shortfalls Create an Opportunity for Ukraine, Western Officials Say

•   NYT: As Iran Talks of Nuclear Advances, Negotiations With U.S. Restart

•   NYT: Germany’s conservative leaders push for nuclear power to stay on as the country breaks from Russian fuels.

•   WP: Trump voters back his candidates. Some aren’t so sure about a 2024 bid.

•   WP: Climate change is contributing to rise in billion-dollar disasters - Washington Post

•   WP: India turns to Russian fertilizer, showing challenge of isolating Moscow

•   FT: Liz Truss backers step up attacks on Bank of England over inflation

•   FT: Bank of America’s view on the labour market isn’t actually evil

•   Bloomberg: Cooling Semiconductor Sales Heighten Fears of a Global Recession

•   Bloomberg: Labor Hoarding Holds Key to How Severe a US Recession May Get

•   Bloomberg: US Recession Odds Are Falling Fast, JPMorgan Trading Model Shows

•   Bloomberg: Angry Europeans Lower ECB’s Google Rating Amid Soaring Inflation

•   Bloomberg: Europeans Warn ECB About Fears of Rising Prices, Economic Slump

•   Bloomberg: Energy Crisis Spawns Limits on Cooling, Lighting in EU Cities

•   Bloomberg: UK Job Market: The Great Resignation Could Soon Be the Great Sacking

•   Bloomberg: Italy’s Great Divide Tests Europe’s Ambitious Recovery Efforts

•   Bloomberg: China Cancels Japan Meeting Over G-7’s Taiwan Statement

•   Bloomberg: China to Focus on Trade to Deepen Africa Ties, EIU Says

•   Bloomberg: Hawkish Bets Ebb in Asia as Global Recession Fears Spill Over

•   Bloomberg: Russia Undercuts Saudi Oil in India as Competition Heats Up

•   Bloomberg: Oil Prices at $100 ‘Easy’ Argument Starting in 2023, Sankey Says

•   Bloomberg: Saudis Signal Oil Market Will Stay Tight With Price Hike

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Interest-Rate Increases Reflect Powell’s Focus on Inflation

•   Reuters: Biden stays COVID positive in test on Thursday

•   Reuters: Italy unveils new $17.4 billion package against inflation

•   Reuters: Russia sees largest COVID cases daily increase since April

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Saudi, UAE save oil firepower in case of winter supply crisis

•   Reuters: Foreigners cut China debt, dump equities in July, report says

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Samsung workers in Vietnam bear brunt of slowdown in global demand for electronics

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Italy, Intel close to $5 billion deal for chip factory

•   Reuters: China's memory upstart YMTC edges closer to rivals with 232-layer chip

•   Reuters: Analysis-As inflation bites, Japan's PM finds unlikely ally in labour unions

•   Reuters: Analysis: Bolsonaro risks blowback from joint military parade and campaign rally

•   AP: Analysis: Iran now speaking openly on nuclear bomb prospects

•   CNBC: Job growth was likely strong in July, but it could slow in coming months with more layoffs

•   CNBC: IMF tells Europe to let consumers bear the brunt of higher bills to encourage energy saving

•   Fox Business: Over 230 economists warn Manchin's spending bill will perpetuate inflation

•   SCMP: Taiwan’s marine shippers, airlines re-route to avoid China’s military exercises, and costs will rise

•   SCMP: Chinese trade bans on Taiwan risk ‘deeper predicament’ as Nancy Pelosi visit leaves geopolitics ‘on the mind’ of businesses

•   SCMP: South Korea’s unprecedented 3-month long trade deficit with China not seen as ‘systematic change’

•   Caixin: In Depth: China’s Plan to Break Foreign Iron Ore Dependence — Mine More at Home

•   Nikkei Asia: Tokyo eyes flying-car landing pads atop skyscrapers

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan electronic parts makers' rising stocks stoke production cut fears

•   매경(P1): 분식회계 이후…대우조선 4조 투입, 회수 0원 [뉴스&분석]

•   매경: 대우조선 분리매각땐 매수자 찾기 쉽지만 대규모 투자 불가피

•   매경: 삼성重 인수땐 과잉설비 해소…해외 경쟁당국 제동 우려

•   매경: 조선업 침체 벗어났지만…발주량 증가세는 '멈칫'

•   매경: 기술력 탄탄해 독자생존 충분 vs 시장논리로는 파산 못 막아

•   매경: 대우조선, 분식회계 후 5조6천억 순손실

•   매경: '빅2개편' 권고에도 놔두더니…3년후 현대重에 매각도 불발

•   매경: 임금삭감등 구조조정 선행돼야 정상화

•   매경(P1): [단독] 백신 부작용 설마했는데…가슴통증 심낭염 환자 2배 쑥

•   매경: 주거형 오피스텔도 찬바람…상반기 거래 2006년 이후 최저

•   매경: 삼성, 中화웨이 제치고 인도에 5G 장비 공급

•   매경: 재계, 이재용·신동빈 특사 건의 추진

•   매경: 왜이렇게 숨막히나 했더니.. 7월 더위 역대급이었다

•   한경(P1): 100일 코앞인데 인사 '먹통'…尹 정부가 안 돌아간다

•   한경: 유력 후보 '면접 광탈' 시키고 사규까지 바꿔…前정부서 임명된 공공기관장, 尹정부에 항명?

•   한경(P1): "대우조선 손배 폭탄 막겠다"…'노란봉투법' 밀어붙이는 巨野

•   한경: '연봉 9500만원' 현대제철 노조 "400만원 더" 요구한 까닭

•   한경: 시멘트값 5개월만에 또 인상…레미콘·건설社 반발

•   한경: 3박4일 가족 휴가에 469만원…그래도 제주行 비행기는 '만석'

•   서경(P1): [단독]GTX 민간사업자, 역세권에 집 짓고 분양도 한다

•   서경: 복합개발권 '당근'으로 민간 유인…규제 풀어 '세토끼' 잡는다

•   서경: 한해 5兆 → 7兆로…민자 유치에 총력전

•   서경(P1): 반도체 특허 심사 인력 확보 '엇박자'

•   서경(P1): [단독] "전세금 날라갔다"…집주인 체납에 떼인 보증금 472억

•   서경: "중국, 무력위협 계속할 것…그만두면 대만 독립할거라 생각해"

•   서경: 최상목 "10월 물가정점 예상…이달 중 추석민생대책 내놓겠다"

•   서경: '대만 포위' 장기화 땐 반도체 직격탄…항공편도 대거 취소

•   조선(P1): 尹대통령 “펠로시의 판문점 방문, 대북 억지력 징표”

•   조선: 공항엔 아무도 안나오고… 방문국 중 유일하게 정상도 못 만나

•   조선: 박진, 中 왕이 면전서 美 주도 IPEF에 “적극 참여”

•   조선(P1): 한국 최초 달궤도선 ‘다누리’ 5일 발사… 심우주 향한 여정 시작

•   조선: 하락장에 바쁜 오너들… 기업들 증여·지배구조 개편 잇따라

•   조선비즈: 대통령실 “‘칩4′ 용어 안 쓰고 ‘반도체 협의’로....中과도 공급망 협력 지속”

•   조선비즈: 정부의 ‘공매도 보완책’, 왜 개미 못 달래나… 쟁점 3가지

•   조선비즈: 쏟아지는 스팩 상장...IPO 시장 불황 넘을까

•   대기 중인 회사만 62개…줄줄이 지연되는 거래소 상장 심사

•   조선비즈: 파운드리 재고 쌓인다…TSMC, 칩 주문 감소에 가격 조정

•   조선비즈: 내부 컨설팅만하는 삼성 ‘싱크탱크’… 160만 회원 커뮤니티도 종료

•   중앙(P1): 구내식당 직원 정규직 만들고, 철로 보수는 외주 줬다

•   중앙: 요즘 금융계는 ‘임금피크제 세대갈등’…“자리만 차지하는 선배” “고려장 서럽다”

•   중앙: 5.6% 5.4% 5.1%…임금인상률은 기업 크기 순?

•   동아(P1): 코로나 재감염률 5%대, 5월 첫주 0.59%의 10배

•   채널A: [단독]두산건설, 성남FC에 ‘58억 우회 후원’ 의혹

•   문화(P1): “韓, 근로시간 日·週단위로 이중규제… G5보다 경직”

•   국민(P1): [단독] 1년 만에 큰 폭으로 우유 값 또 오른다

•   서울(P1): 배추값 122% 껑충… ‘金치’ 되겠네

•   세계(P1): 전남·경북·경남 3곳에 친환경 모빌리티 ‘규제자유특구’ 지정

•   한겨레(P1): ‘규제심판 1호’는 대형마트 휴업…윤 정부 ‘상생정책’ 시험대 올랐다

•   한겨레(P1): 평균 가계가 30평 집 사는데 16.6년 걸려…OECD 국가 중 2위

•   한겨레: 팬데믹 회복세 넘어서는 이례적이고 가파른 ‘고용 호조세’ 왜?

※   한국은행: 최근 취업자수 증가에 대한 평가

•   한겨레: 이론상 2%, ‘민간부채’ 고려하면 4%…한은, ‘중립금리’ 고심

•   머니투데이(P1): "마트 안 열면 온라인으로 시키지 뭐"…시장은 여전히 안 간다

•   머니투데이(P1): [단독]非주거지역에도 주택 쏟아진다 "공업·상업·준주거 규제 완화"

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 기준금리 오르는데 법정최고금리 고정... 사채 내몰린 서민들

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 아파트 관리비 10년만에 최대폭 상승... 가스·전기 공공요금 인상 영향

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 회사채 1900억 돌아오는데 또… 두산 CP 100억 발행

•   아시아경제(P1): [불붙는 예적금 경쟁] 0.1%P에도 솔깃…예적금 환승 또 환승

•   디지털타임스: 환경부 "원전, 친환경 산업 분류 확정 아냐"

•   이데일리(P1): 미중 갈등 '일촉즉발'…11兆 차이나펀드 비상

•   이데일리: 폭염 시작, 휴가 끝…전력수급 '다음 주'가 고비

•   이데일리: 너도 나도 '비상경영'…조선-철강업계, 후판가 협상 난항 예고

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 10만8390명 확진…어제보다 3900명 많아

•   전자신문: "美 반도체법 통과...미·중 신냉전 대비 전략 마련해야" 산업硏

•   전자신문: LG이노텍, 기판 인력 확대…兆단위 투자 기대↑

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Federico Fubini): Did Putin Bring Down Draghi?

•   Project Syndicate(Ana Palacio): Erdoğan the Diplomat?

•   Project Syndicate(Ian Buruma): Trump’s True Believers

•   Project Syndicate(Anders Åslund): How to Win Friends and Drain Russia’s War Machine

•   Project Syndicate(Hoe Ee Khor, Kimi Xu Jiang): Rising US Interest Rates Won’t Trigger Another Asian Financial Crisis

•   FT(Editorial Board): Levelling up to tackle the UK’s economic malaise

•   FT(Stephen Roach): Two insecure superpowers stumble towards collision over Taiwan

•   FT(Heather Grabbe): Ukraine can be a leader of Europe’s green transition

•   FT(Jagjit Chadha): Time to tackle the UK’s quantitative easing problem

•   FT(Chris Cook): The UK lacks a clear plan for fighting inflation

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): About That Schumer-Manchin ‘Deficit Reduction’

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Schumer-Manchin’s Winners and Losers

•   WSJ(Hal Brands, Michael Beckley): The Coming War Over Taiwan

•   NYT(Kyla Scanlon): The Vibes in the Economy Are … Weird. Really Weird.

•   WP(Editorial Board): OPEC’s tiny oil increase shows Biden’s fist-bump diplomacy failed

•   WP(Josh Rogin): The skeptics are wrong: The U.S. can confront both China and Russia

•   WP(Michael McFaul): ‘Realists’ have it wrong: Putin, not Zelensky, is the one who can end the war.

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): The US Needs Less Talk and More Action on Taiwan

•   Bloomberg(Mohamed A. El-Erian): Bank of England Gives a Lesson in Honest Central Banking

•   Bloomberg(Justin Fox): Blame History, Not Biden, for Making Recession Calls So Hard

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Rising Animal Spirits Could Be Running Investors Into a Dumb Money Trap

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): European Energy Crisis: Germany's Switch to Diesel Comes at a Cost

•   Bloomberg(Julian Lee): A Supply Hike So Small It’s Meaningless: Elements by Julian Lee

•   Bloomberg(Jared Dillian): A Soft Landing in the Economy Is Starting to Look More likely

•   Bloomberg(James Stavridis): Getting Grain Out of Ukraine Is Literally a Minefield

•   Bloomberg(Tim Culpan): TSMC Chose the US. Now It Must Handle China

•   CNN(Van Jones, Jessie Buendi): 5 ways the Inflation Reduction Act will help American families