Global Economic Monitor 220812

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Nasdaq, S&P 500 retreat as rate hike fears cool stock rally

※   U.S. producer prices fall in July, underlying inflation slows

※   Disney tops Netflix on streaming subscribers, shares jump

※   U.S. weekly jobless claims rise for second straight week

•   Metals: Copper rises to 6-week high on U.S. rate hike optimism

•   Grains: Chicago grains firm on yield uncertainty ahead of USDA report

•   한국: 미국 인플레이션 정점 기대 속 코스피 2,520선 회복

•   한국: 美 금리인상 속도조절 기대에…원·달러 한때 1300원대 밑으로

[Indicators]

•   US Q2 Home prices: U.S. Home Prices Jumped to Record High in Second Quarter

•   US Jul. PPI: U.S. Supplier Inflation Logs Slowest Pace Since Last Fall

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: U.S. Jobless Claims Rise Slightly to New 2022 High

※   Applications for unemployment benefits have climbed since reaching 50-year low in March

•   Argentina Jul. CPI: Argentina’s Inflation Surges Past 70% on Political Turmoil

•   Mexico Benchmark rate: Bank of Mexico Raises Interest Rates for 10th Straight Time

•   Argentina Benchmark rate: Argentina Lifts Key Interest Rate to 69.5% to Cool Inflation

•   한국 2분기 시도 서비스업 생산 및 소매판매: 서비스업 생산 5분기 연속 증가

•   한국 6월 통화 및 유동성: 금리 상승으로 예·적금에 몰려든 돈 …6월 통화량 한 달새 12조↑

•   한국 7월 수출입물가: 7월 수입물가지수 0.9%↓…유가 하락에 석달만에 떨어져

•   한국 7월 ICT 수출: 7월 ICT 수출 61억2000만달러 흑자...작년 3월 이후 최저

•   한국 7월 외국인 증권투자 : 7개월 만에 돌아온 외국인…지난달 국내주식 순매수

•   한국 8월 1~10일 수출: 8월 1∼10일 무역적자 77억달러…5개월 연속 적자 우려

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): 아파트값 하락폭 또 경신…서울·수도권 40개월來 최대

[News]

•   WSJ: Attorney General Merrick Garland Asks Court to Release Trump Search Warrant

※   Garland says he requested the warrant be unsealed because of ‘substantial public interest’ in the matter

•   WSJ: Biden’s Agenda Doesn’t Give Priority to Inflation, Despite Rhetoric

•   WSJ: Bill to Speed Energy Infrastructure Faces Resistance

•   WSJ: The Market’s Peak Inflation Story Fights the Fed

•   WSJ: CDC Drops Quarantine Recommendation After Covid-19 Exposure

•   WSJ: Covid-19 Variants Keep Getting More Contagious. Here’s Why.

•   WSJ: Ukraine Seeks to Squeeze Russian Troops as It Girds for Battle for Kherson

•   WSJ: OPEC Cuts Oil-Demand Forecasts as Economic Growth Slows

※   OPEC: MOMR August 2022

•   WSJ: The Bursting Chinese Housing Bubble Compounds Beijing’s Economic Woes

•   WSJ: Xi Sought to Send Message to Biden on Taiwan: Now Is No Time for a Crisis

•   WSJ: EU Proposes Significant Concession to Iran to Revive Nuclear Deal

•   WSJ: Oil-Storage Disaster Intensifies Cuban Energy Crisis

•   WSJ: Rivian’s Losses Nearly Triple to $1.7 Billion

•   WSJ: Samsung’s Mobile Chief Sees Foldable Phones as Edge in Smartphone Wars

•   WSJ: Rising Food Prices Could Become a Business Risk, Analysts Say

•   WSJ: Why Amazon Paid $1.7 Billion for a Roomba

•   NYT: As China Vows More Military Exercises, Taiwan Is Undeterred

•   NYT: Erdogan and Putin: Complicated Relations With Mutual Benefits

•   WP: Climate change’s impact intensifies as U.S. prepares to take action

•   WP: China’s growing reach is transforming a Pacific island chain

•   FT: Western sanctions have had ‘limited impact’ on Russian oil output, says IEA

※   IEA: Oil Market Report - August 2022

•   FT: Military briefing: Crimea explosions focus spotlight on shadow counter-offensive

•   FT: From Europe’s powerhouse to its weak link: Germany’s economy stutters

•   FT: European electricity prices hit new highs amid power market disruption

•   FT: Olaf Scholz backs proposal for new European gas pipeline

•   FT: Sweden agrees to extradite fraudster wanted in Turkey

•   FT: Italy’s rightwing alliance pledges solidarity with EU and Nato

•   FT: Russia’s energy squeeze on Europe thaws icy UK-EU relations

•   FT: Bank of England warns Truss and Sunak over City regulation plans

•   FT: Lay-offs during a jobs boom: the paradox of the US labour market

•   FT: Fed’s Mary Daly says it is too early to ‘declare victory’ on inflation fight

•   FT: Latest Gaza conflict puts differing Palestinian tactics on display

•   FT: Stablecoins do not make for a stable financial system

•   FT: Carmakers’ battery plans in peril as raw material costs soar

•   FT: Siemens posts first quarterly loss in 12 years

•   FT: Social media’s big bet: the shopping revolution will be livestreamed

•   Bloomberg: Pelosi Says US Can’t Let China Establish ‘New Normal’ on Taiwan

•   Bloomberg: Baltic States Abandon East European Cooperation With China

•   Bloomberg: China’s Mounting Risks Set Stage for PBOC to Rein In Stimulus

•   Bloomberg: One Chart That Shows Inflation Really Was 0% in July

•   Bloomberg: Wage Gains for US Job Hoppers Hit Record High Over Those Who Stay

•   Bloomberg: US Housing Market: Pimco’s Dan Ivascyn Sees ‘Significant Slowdown’

•   Bloomberg: ESG as Economic Threat Catches on as Theme in Key Senate Race

•   Bloomberg: Putin’s War Hurls Russian Economy Back Four Years in One Quarter

•   Bloomberg: Euro Zone Can Escape With a Shallow Recession This Winter

•   Bloomberg: Liz Truss’s Plan for BOE Seen as Threat to Pound and UK Bonds

•   Bloomberg: China’s Covid Cases Hit Three-Month High on Beach Town Surge

•   Bloomberg: China’s Provinces Vow to Meet GDP Targets Despite Growth Slump

•   Bloomberg: Bolsonaro Erases Lula’s Lead in Brazil’s Most Populous State

•   Bloomberg: Peru’s Political Crisis Intensifies as Probes Close In on Castillo

•   Bloomberg: Bond Traders Dismiss Stock-Market Rally as Misguided Euphoria

•   Bloomberg: Powell Needs to Speak Up to Stop Ill-Fated Market Rally, Strategist Says

•   Bloomberg: ‘Worst Likely Over’ for EM Asia Currencies as Fed Hike Bets Ease

•   Bloomberg: Gas-Starved Europe Is About to Get a Pair of Floating LNG Units

•   Bloomberg: Apple Expects to Sustain iPhone Sales in 2022 as Market Slows

•   Bloomberg: Shortages of Some Chips Drag On Even Amid Signs of Industry Rout

•   Bloomberg: Top China Chipmaker Defies US Sanctions With Earnings Beat

•   Bloomberg: Europe Car Industry Could Be Headed for a Crash in Era of High Inflation

•   Bloomberg: Saudi Aramco: World’s Biggest Oil Exporter to Make Huge Bet on Carbon Storage

•   Reuters: Ukraine preparing for 'tragedy' at Russian-held nuclear plant - minister

•   Reuters: Delhi to enforce mask mandate again after spurt in COVID cases

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Indian companies swapping dollar for Asian currencies to buy Russian coal

•   MarketWatch: Are Nasdaq stocks in a bull market? A history of head fakes says slow your roll

•   Fox Business: Democrats' Inflation Reduction Act could mean lower wages for millions of Americans

•   SCMP: ‘Highly unacceptable’: Taiwan rejects Beijing’s ‘one country, two systems’ plans for unification

•   SCMP: China accelerates Mongolia investment to ‘facilitate’ Russia trade link and secure energy, commodities

•   SCMP: Shanghai seals off ‘high-risk’ compounds as 2 new Covid-19 infections ignite fears about return of pandemic curbs

•   SCMP: Coronavirus lockdown at China’s export showroom Yiwu clouds Christmas order outlook

•   SCMP: As US aids semiconductor industry, billionaire-backed tech fund enters spotlight

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan cabinet reshuffle fails to shore up support for Kishida: poll

•   매경(P1): "HMM 지분 단계적 매각" 정부 첫언급

•   매경(P1): 암 사망률 1위 '폐암'…이젠 피 한방울로 찾아낸다

•   매경(P1): 김현준 LH 사장 사의…공기업 물갈이 신호탄

•   매경: 공공기관장 70% 文정부때 임명…경영평가 내세워 사퇴 압박

•   매경: "공기업이 카지노·골프장 왜 뛰어드나…민간에 매각해야"

•   매경(P1): 정부가 뿌리는 농수산물 30% 할인쿠폰...아무나 받을 수 있나

•   매경: 전기차 충전시장에 삼성·LG·GS도 참전

•   매경: 박세익 "코스피 2900 갈수도...태조이방원주 주목"

•   매경: '强달러 총알' 장전한 외국기관들 "韓기업 쌀 때 사자"

•   한경(P1): 기업 위에 군림…지자체 '풀뿌리 갑질'

•   한경: 합의 뒤집고, 돈 더 내라…"지자체가 기업 주인행세"

•   한경: 기업 위에 공무원, 공무원 위에 지방의원…먹이사슬이 기가막혀!

•   한경: 조지아·텍사스·델라웨어…투자기업 '귀빈' 대접하는 美 주정부

•   한경(P1): 완성차로 번지는 임피제 소송…르노코리아 노조도 법원행

•   한경(P1): '철강 담합' 11개사에 과징금 폭탄

•   한경: "반지하 다 없앤다니…고시원이나 쪽방 가서 살라는 소리"

•   한경: "3분기 D램값 최대 18% 하락"

※   TrendForce: 【Market View】Bloated Inventory and Manufacturers Sacrificing Pricing for Sales, Consumer DRAM Price Decline Expands to 13~18%, Says TrendForce

•   한경: 美·中·日, 兆단위 양자컴 투자…韓은 5년간 490억

•   서경(P1): [단독] '한계기업' 4500곳 5년새 2배나 껑충

•   서경: '만성적 좀비기업' 23% 넘어…"부실 판명 前 구조조정 시급"

•   서경(P1): 둔촌주공 119일만에 공사재개 길 열렸다

•   서경(P1): [단독] 국민연금 해외자산發 환율불안 커진다

•   서경: [국민연금發 환율 불안] 달러→원화 환전 노린 투기세력 먹잇감…"한은 등과 공조 시급"

•   서경: SK 159곳 투자할 때 삼성은 5곳뿐…"JY 사면땐 M&A 재시동"[시그널]

•   서경: 기금 바닥나는데…국민연금 컨트롤타워는 넉달째 부재중

•   조선(P1): 코로나 이후 가계빚 증가율 세계 1위

•   조선: 자영업자 잔인한 9월… “상환유예 안되면 빚내 빚 갚아야 할 상황”

•   조선: 354만 가구가 적자… 4600만원 버는데 빚갚는 돈 4500만원

•   조선: 지원 사각지대 4050세대 “일찍 태어난 게 죄인가”

•   조선(P1): 전국 교육청, 쌓아둔 돈 6조6000억

•   조선: 고속도로 통행료 면제 추진···코로나 확산세 보고 이달 말 최종 결정

•   조선: 코로나 재감염 비율 5~6%대로 높아져

•   조선: [단독] 새만금 수상 태양광 사업, 한수원 재정 악화에 발목

•   조선: SK바사 자체 개발 백신, 원액 생산부터 포장까지 완료… 8월 말 출하 예정

•   조선비즈: 추경호 “9~10월 물가 정점 이후 둔화 예상…폭우 영향은 좀 더 봐야”

•   조선비즈: 차세대 AI 반도체로 주목받는 FPGA… 인텔도, SKT도 반했다

•   중앙: 장마는 1년에 한 두 차례뿐?…기후위기발 ‘N차 장마’ 시대

•   동아(P1): [단독]대통령실 “사드는 안보주권 사안” 中의 ‘3不1限’ 일축… 이달 정상화

•   동아: [단독]中대사 “韓사드 美가 장악… 中안보 위협 절대 수용 못해”

•   한국: 스타트업들, '불황형 M&A' 늘어난다

•   머니투데이(P1): 적자 87% 줄인 쿠팡...흑자 전환 보인다

•   헤럴드경제: 서울 소형 실거래가 줄줄이 ‘10억 클럽’ 아웃

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 원자재값 뛴 만큼 단가 인상… 납품대금 연동제 '시동'

•   아시아경제(P1): [배 만들 사람이 없다①]글로벌 수주 1위…"9월 부족 인력만 1만명"

•   아시아경제: [배 만들 사람이 없다②]하청 구조와 인력 수급 간 고질적 딜레마

•   아시아경제: [배 만들 사람이 없다③]외국인 노동자로 인력난 푼다는 정부

•   아시아경제: [배 만들 사람이 없다④]기업들 '이윤 되찾기'가 우선…정주여건 개선 등 정부도 나서야

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]정부, 암바토비 이어 코브레파나마도 매각 중단

•   아시아경제: "8개월 만에…" QD 경쟁력 끌어올린 삼성디스플레이

•   디지털타임스(P1): 하이브리드車 취득 면세 2년 연장… 일시적 2주택자 가산세 부담 완화

•   디지털타임스: 삼성D·LGD "대형 디스플레이 시장 OLED로 재편될 것"

•   이데일리(P1): "美, 대만 반도체 의존은 위험"…커지는 '한국 역할론'

•   이데일리: 미세플라스틱의 기습…위해하지 않은게 아니다[플라스틱 넷제로]

•   이데일리: 세계 최상위권 미세플라스틱 보유국 한국 '법'으로 규제한다

•   이데일리: 미세 플라스틱 저감장치 해외 경쟁 중…국내 '아직 검토 중'

•   이데일리: 130개 공공기관, 노동이사 맞이에 분주

•   이데일리: 올해 종부세 내린다더니..국회 논의 첫발도 못떼

•   이데일리: [미래기술25]구글 코드 3%는 AI가 썼다…창작 영역까지 도전

•   이데일리: [미래기술25]말로 프로그램 짜는 시대 올까…'노코드 AI' 전쟁

•   이데일리: [미래기술25]"대부분의 AI, 아직 멀티 태스킹 못해"

•   연합: 오후 9시 12만4857명 확진, 어제보다 6661명↓…전주 1.15배

•   전자신문(P1): LG이노텍, 전장 카메라 사업 분기 첫 흑자

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Arvind Subramanian, Josh Felman): Three Globalization Shocks Could Hurt China and Help India

•   Project Syndicate(Michael Spence): Make America Invest Again

•   Project Syndicate(Howard Davies): The Bank of England After Boris

•   Project Syndicate(Richard Haass): Xi Jinping’s Guns of August

•   FT(Editorial Board): Western companies wake up to China risk

•   FT(Richard Waters): A looming test for tech antitrust battles

•   FT(Claire Jones): Inflation’s decline will not be as dramatic as its rise

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Capito vs. Manchin on Coal in the Inflation Reduction Act

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): A Republican Midterm Election Victory Isn’t Assured

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): ‘Zero Inflation’? Not Quite.

•   WSJ(Jason Furman): One Good Inflation Report Isn’t Enough

•   WSJ(Karl Rove): The Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act Delusions

•   WSJ(Joseph C. Sternberg): The Chinese Communist Party Needs Its Bourgeoisie

•   NYT(Jody Freeman): The Climate Bill Isn’t Perfect, but It’s Still a Major Victory

•   WP(Editorial Board): Germany must keep — and expand — nuclear power

•   WP(Henry Olsen): Sorry, Democrats. The inflation problem is far from over.

•   WP(Josh Rogin): What China’s overreaction to Pelosi’s Taiwan visit really tells us

•   Bloomberg(Allison Schrager): Fed's Damage to Housing Market May Last Years

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Curb Your Enthusiasm on Good Inflation News. The Fed Cares About Other Numbers

•   Bloomberg(Eduardo Porter): Climate Bill Alone Won't Halve US Emissions by 2030

•   CNN(Mark Wolfe): The Democrats' sweeping economic package doesn't go far enough for low-income families

•   MarketWatch(Daniel Newman): Semiconductor companies have split into two groups — the resilient and the risky

•   Fox News(Deroy Murdock): The Inflation Reduction Act will ramp up inflation, oppress Americans and make them sick and poor