Global Economic Monitor 220809

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street muted on mixed inflation messages

※   U.S. stocks flat following Friday sell-off

※   Treasury yields tick down

※   Oil up nearly 2%, off multi-month lows

•   Metals: Copper supported by hopes interest rates may soon peak

•   Grains: Corn and soybeans slip after Midwest rains, USDA data awaited

•   한국: 코스피, 외인·개인 매수에 나흘째 상승…2,490대 강보합

[Indicators]

•   US Jul. Inflation expectations: Consumers Lower Their Expectations of Future Inflation

•   Japan Jun. GDP: Japan's June GDP expands 1.1% on strong consumption: JCER

•   Japan Jun. Current account: Japan's Jan.-June current account surplus down 63% to 8-year low

•   India Jul. Inflation expectations: Households expect moderation in inflation

•   한국 7월 고용행정통계: 정부 직접 고용 3만명 감소… 고용보험 가입 증가세 둔화

[News]

•   WSJ: Attacks at Ukraine Nuclear Plant Are Suicidal, U.N. Chief Warns

•   WSJ: As Many as 80,000 Russian Troops Hurt or Killed in Ukraine, Pentagon Says

•   WSJ: U.S. Won’t Ask African Nations to Pick Sides in Standoff With Russia, Blinken Says

•   WSJ: Europe Steels Itself to Maintain Economic Pressure on Russia, Despite Pain

•   WSJ: China Extends Military Exercises as Taiwan Battles Cyberattacks

※   University websites and 7-Eleven stores have been affected, in some cases to hurl insults at U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi

•   WSJ: U.S. Lawmakers Look to Digital Dollar to Compete With China

•   WSJ: Antitrust Bill Targeting Big Tech in Limbo as Congress Prepares to Recess

•   WSJ: Biden Schedule Is Heavy on Delaware, Light on Press Interviews and Golf

•   WSJ: EDF’s Nuclear Reactors to Discharge Hotter Water Amid Heat Wave, Energy Crisis

•   WSJ: Israel Reopens Gaza Crossing as Cease-Fire Holds

•   WSJ: Wall Street Shuffles Bets on Consumer Loans as Economy Slows

•   WSJ: The West Must Wean Itself Off Russian Titanium

•   WSJ: Tesla, EV Makers Stand to Get Billions for Factories From Senate Bill

•   WSJ: Data Show Gender Pay Gap Opens Early

•   WSJ: SoftBank Reports Record $23 Billion Quarterly Loss as Tech Downturn Hits

•   WSJ: SoftBank Emerges as a Big Loser of the Tech Downturn. Again.

•   WSJ: SoftBank Needs a Vision Check

•   WSJ: Nvidia Warns of Sales Shortfall as Gaming Revenue Drops

•   WSJ: A 70-Year-Old Taiwanese Chip Wizard Is Driving China’s Tech Ambitions

•   WSJ: Deliveries of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner Set to Resume in Coming Days

•   WSJ: Inflation Reduction Act Is Big Win for Serial Green-Home Remodelers

•   WSJ: Hiring Gets Easier for Some Employers Despite Hot Job Market

•   WSJ: Two Chinese Cities Approve Baidu’s Unmanned Self-Driving Taxis

•   NYT: Biden Is on a Roll That Any President Would Relish. Is It a Turning Point?

•   NYT: In an Unequal Economy, the Poor Face Inflation Now and Job Loss Later

•   NYT: The U.S. Will Send Another $1 Billion in Aid to Ukraine.

•   NYT: For Ukrainians in Donbas, tragedy is the backdrop to everyday existence.

•   NYT: How the covid economy triggered soaring costs at this dream home

•   NYT: Electric Cars Too Costly for Many, Even With Aid in Climate Bill

•   NYT: Can Global Shipping Be Fixed? One Regulator Will Try.

•   FT: Norway set to curb electricity exports in blow to European energy supplies

•   FT: European men struggle to access monkeypox jabs

•   FT: Tech sector tax windfall shores up Ireland’s economy against recession

•   FT: UK preparations for hotter climate should be ‘national priority’

•   FT: Energy companies urge UK to detoxify gas exports to EU

•   FT: Waiting for Pivot

•   FT: Quad and the WTO focus on fishing

•   FT: EU mediators submit ‘final text’ in effort to revive Iran nuclear deal

•   FT: Chinese investors ditch property for jade in search of higher returns

•   FT: BioNTech and Pfizer to begin clinical trial of vaccine for new Covid variants

•   Bloomberg: China Seizes on Pelosi Visit to Set ‘New Normal’ for Taiwan

•   Bloomberg: Biden Confident China Won’t Escalate Beyond Military Drills

•   Bloomberg: Taiwan Says Economic Ties to China Make More Sanctions Unlikely

•   Bloomberg: Ending Covid Jobless Benefit Aided US Employment, Fed Study Says

•   Bloomberg: Europe Braces for Extreme Heat as Power Infrastructure Wobbles

•   Bloomberg: Father of UK Inflation Target Says ‘Terrible Error’ to Drop It

•   Bloomberg: UK Economy Probably Entered Its Worst Slump Since Lockdown

•   Bloomberg: China’s Consumer Inflation Could Soon Surpass 3%, CICC Says

•   Bloomberg: China’s Hainan Orders More Lockdowns as Covid Sweeps Island

•   Bloomberg: China Property Woes Spark Longest Mortgage Debt Halt Since 2015

•   Bloomberg: Top China Strategist Sees Stocks in Limbo as GDP Growth Slows to 2%

•   Bloomberg: Abe’s Legacy Looms Large in Kishida Plan for Japanese Cabinet Overhaul

•   Bloomberg: First Crop Ship to Leave Ukraine Is Stuck Without a Buyer

•   Bloomberg: Russian Oil Shipments to Southern Europe at Highest Since Mid-June

•   Bloomberg: Oil Tankers See Strongest Market in Decades on Thirst for Fuels

•   Bloomberg: US Retail Cargo Seen Cooling in Second Half as Inflation, Rates Bite

•   Bloomberg: Apple Slows Pace of Dealmaking Even as Its Tech Peers Plow Ahead

•   Bloomberg: US Set to Deliver More Offshore Wind Energy in New Climate Bill

•   Bloomberg: Corporations Join the Nuclear Fusion Craze

•   Reuters: As Russian missiles struck Ukraine, Western tech still flowed

•   Reuters: Wait and see: U.S. companies curb investment as they await Fed moves

•   Reuters: Chip and carmaker CEOs meet ahead of Biden signing

•   Reuters: Lula's lead narrows to single-digit in Brazil race, poll says

•   Reuters: ECB, IMF call on climate standard setters to align company disclosures

•   Reuters: Qualcomm to spend $4.2 billion more on chips from GlobalFoundries

•   Reuters: Analysis: Climate change, scarcity chip away at degrowth taboo

•   Reuters: Analysis: Democrats score big wins on climate, drugs with $430 billion U.S. Senate bill

•   CNN: Gas prices have fallen. Here's why inflation hasn't

•   CNN: Landmark climate and health care bill won't crush corporate profits, Goldman Sachs says

•   CNN: Billionaires are funding a massive treasure hunt in Greenland as ice vanishes

•   CNBC: Inflation Reduction Act won’t curb inflation ‘over the short run,’ says economist

•   Fox Business: Inflation Reduction Act: What tax hikes are in the bill?

•   SCMP: China cuts tariffs, cosies up to 16 of world’s poorest nations with US, Australia trade ties strained

•   Global Times: After overcoming a tough Q2, Shanghai gears up for economic recovery in H2

•   Caixin: Cover Story: Graft Scandal Casts Long Shadow Over China’s Chipmaking Ambitions

•   Caixin: Exclusive: ByteDance Takes Over Private Hospital Operator for $1.5 Billion

•   Economic Times: Infra assets worth over Rs 1.62 lakh crore to be monetised this fiscal: Finance ministry

•   매경(P1): '물폭탄'에 강남 일대까지 잠겼다

•   매경(P1): [알립니다] 뉴욕서 글로벌 머니쇼…새로운 투자의 길 밝힌다

•   매경: 현대차·기아 '美현지 생산' 발등의 불…韓배터리 3사는 일단 미소

•   매경: 코로나 후 기업생존법…일하는 방식 '믹스' 업무효율은 '맥스'

•   매경: "박봉보다 이것 못참아" MZ세대 회사 떠나는 이유

•   매경: 고려아연·한화 동맹, 수소·암모니아로 확대

•   한경(P1): 내년 예산 줄인다…13년만에 재정긴축

•   한경: "이대로는 감당 못해" 초비상…문재인 정부 사업에 칼 빼든다

•   한경: 재정·세금 감면 동시에 못 받게 중복지원 줄여 예산낭비 막는다

•   한경(P1): 외국인력 1만6000명 긴급수혈

※   기재부: 비상경제장관회의 개최

•   한경: 팔 수 있는 건 다 판다…국유재산 매각 5년간 '16조+α'로

•   한경: 유럽업체는 떠나는데…현대차 '러시아 딜레마'

•   한경: "200만원 월세 아파트가 300만원 됐다"…월급쟁이들 '눈물'

•   서경(P1): 금융 CEO 94% “ 지금이 금산분리 완화 적기”

•   서경(P1): 전력난에도 '개문냉방' 블랙아웃 재연되나

•   서경: 폐문 때보다 전력 4배 더 드는데…방역수칙과 상충해 단속 애매 [에너지 위기, 전력 다이어트로 넘자]

•   서경: "에너지효율 투자기업 10% 稅혜택 검토…넥타이 안매기 등 민간도 적극 동참해야" [에너지 위기, 전력 다이어트로 넘자]

•   서경: 고밀도 개발로 '콤팩트 시티' 밑그림…수도권에 150만 가구 푼다

•   서경: "6개월마다 고정·변동금리 전환"…中企에 정책대출 6조 신규공급

•   서경: 물적분할 반대 땐 매수청구권 준다'지만…'적정가 산정'이 관건

•   서경: "원금감면 새출발기금 기존 탕감률서 운영…도덕적 해이는 오해"

•   서경: 삼성전자 창사 53년만에 노조와 임금협약 첫 체결

•   조선: 코로나 2회 감염 8만6000명... 절반 이상이 29세 이하

•   조선: “中企 적합업종 폐지” KDI 보고서에… 업계 술렁

•   조선: t당 15만원 떨어졌다… 철근값, 1년전으로 복귀

•   조선비즈: [단독] 이창양, 차기 美 대권주자 러몬도 장관에 반도체법 축하 서한…상무부 부상에 韓 산업부 ‘으쓱’

•   조선비즈: “삼성은 저만치 가는데” TSMC, 3나노 칩 낮은 수율에 골머리 …애플은 내년 적용, 인텔 칩은 출시 연기

•   조선비즈: 신사업 찾는 현대차그룹, 배달대행업체 ‘노크’

•   중앙: 최고금리 인하 역설…만년필 들고 전당포 간 30대 대출난민

•   중앙: 이 불황에 '취업자 2834만' 최대…성장없는 고용, 조마조마 왜

•   중앙: 킥보드→전기자전거, 마이크로 모빌리티 판이 바뀐다

•   동아: 최저임금 업종별 차등 연구 앞두고 경영계-노동계 갈등 팽팽

•   동아: 조선업 근로자 61%가 사내하청… 고용 경직성이 분쟁 키워[인사이드&인사이트]

•   동아: 부동산 전문가 10명중 6명 “현행 LTV 과해”

•   동아: 연봉 7400만원이면 소득세 18만원 줄어

•   문화: 하반기 먹구름 낀 철강업계, 車강판값 올린다

•   문화: 이통3사는 이미 ‘6G 전쟁중’ … 더 빨라진 기술 더 빨리 잡아라

•   한국: [CarTalk]5년 뒤 펼쳐지는 자율주행 시대…"발 맞추는 기술·뒤처지는 규제"

•   국민(P1): ‘피같은 내 돈’… 7월 전세보증사고 872억 역대 최대

•   서울: 정부, 치솟는 커피값 잡으려다 업계만 잡나

•   경향: 전력수요 늘고 LNG값 오르고…전기료 또 ‘들썩’

•   머니투데이(P1): 이창양 산업장관 "칩4, 경제관점서 접근해야…폐쇄적 모임 안돼"

•   머니투데이: '역대급 법인세' 내는 정유사…세무학계도 '어리둥절'한 초과이윤세

•   머니투데이: 하반기 해외건설 '기지개'...美 반도체공장 수주 삼성물산 1위

•   헤럴드경제: 해운사 ‘3苦’ 물동량·운임↓, 中리스크까지

•   헤럴드경제: 시멘트값 두번 오르자...둘로 갈라진 레미콘업계

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): [단독] 서울 소규모주택정비 1년째 공회전… 관리지역 지정 0곳

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 부테린 "2~3년내 가상자산으로 결제하는 시대 올것" [코리아 블록체인 위크 KBW 2022]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "최저임금 5% 인상 감당 안돼"…‘사중고’ 내몰린 中企

•   디지털타임스: KIEP "美 주도 반도체 공급망에 적극 진출해야"

•   디지털타임스: 패널 사상 최저가… 韓, LCD 라인 철수하나

•   이데일리(P1): 힘받는 복권론…JY, 뉴삼성 고삐 바짝 죈다

•   이데일리: 생산성·품질 높이고 원가 낮춰…"데이터로 더 스마트해질 것"

•   연합: 오후 9시 14만3168명 확진, 전주의 1.34배…어제보다 9만명↑

•   연합: 500대 기업 CEO 중 외부 영입 32%…오너 일가 비중은 감소세

•   연합: 한전 2분기 영업적자 5조원 상회 전망…3분기 더 커질 듯

•   연합: '차 몰기 겁나네'…기름값·주차료·대리비까지 다 올랐다

•   전자신문(P1): SK에너지, 전력중개 사업 진출

•   전자신문(P1): 반도체 장비, 중국 수출 1년새 '반토막'

•   전자신문: 스마트폰도 셀프수리…삼성·애플·구글 '격돌'

•   전자신문: 한국, 1분기 스마트폰 OLED DDI 점유율 1위

•   전자신문: 삼성 폰 감산에 카메라 투톱 실적↓… 3분기 턴어라운드

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Joseph E. Stiglitz): Why the Inflation Reduction Act Is a Big Deal

•   Project Syndicate(Dani Rodrik): Getting Productivism Right

•   Project Syndicate(Shashi Tharoor): Modi’s Damaging Dominance

•   FT(Editorial Board): US climate bill could change the weather

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): Dangerous fatalism about a US-China war

•   FT(Miles Jennings): In defence of stablecoins

•   FT(Lex): Trade: shipbuilding shortfall will keep rates high and dry

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): What the Eurozone Does for Italy

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): A Costly Passivity Toward China

•   WSJ(Steve H. Hanke): Floating Exchange Rates Add to Economic Uncertainty

•   NYT(Vanessa Barbara): Bolsonaro Is Afraid of Going to Jail, and He’s Right to Be

•   WP(Editorial Board): What the Inflation Reduction Act will and won’t accomplish

•   WP(Sebastian Mallaby): Germany is finally acting like Europe’s major power

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): US Inflation Data Matter, From the 'Great Resignation' to Rate Hikes to Taiwan

•   Bloomberg(Stephen Mihm): Recession Fears Are Overblown? Read This Before You Trust the Experts

•   CNN(Orphe Divounguy): The housing market is slowing down, but homes aren't getting cheaper anytime soon

•   Fox Business(Larry Kudlow): There is not one good thing in this bill

•   Reuters(John Kemp): European gas oil futures anticipate recession

•   Global Times(Editorial Board): South Korea naturally wins respect when it adheres to independent diplomacy