Global Economic Monitor 220818

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Global shares fall, U.S. Treasury yields rise after dovish Fed minutes

※   Wall Street stocks close lower

※   Fed seen as dovish in meeting minutes

※   Oil prices rise more than 1%

※   Benchmark 10-year yields edge higher

※   Dollar pare back gains

•   UK: UK bonds sell off as hot inflation lifts expectations for BoE rate rises

•   Natural gas: Asia Gas Prices at Highest Since War Began on Fuel Crunch

•   Coal: European Energy Prices Soar on Summer Crisis, Winter Gloom

•   Metals: Aluminium climbs on smelter shutdown, others slide

•   Grains: Corn and soybeans steady as weather, demand in focus

•   한국: 코스피 나흘만에 하락, 2,510대로 후퇴…FOMC 의사록 경계

[Indicators]

•   US Jun. Business inventories: U.S. business inventories increase solidly in June

•   US Jul. Retail sales: U.S. Retail Spending Held Steady in July

※   Excluding autos and gasoline, spending rose 0.7%

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications(MBA): Mortgage demand fell last week even as rates declined slightly

•   Eurozone Q2 GDP(rev.): Euro-Zone Economy Grew Less Than Estimated in Second Quarter

•   UK Jun. House prices: UK house price growth slows to 7.8% in June, says ONS

•   UK Jul. CPI, PPI: UK inflation rate rises to 40-year high of 10.1%

※   Consumer price index in July registered double-digit annual increase for first time since 1982

※   FT: BoE in line of fire over UK’s double-digit inflation

※   Bloomberg: Poorest UK Households Hit Hardest by Surge in Inflation

•   Japan Jul. Balance of trade: Japan’s Trade Gap Hits Record on Commodities Impact, Weak Yen

•   Poland Q2 GDP: Poland’s economy contracts as threat of recession across eastern Europe mounts

•   Saudi Arabia Jun. Oil exports, output: Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports, output rise in June

•   한국 6월 은행 원화대출 연체율: 국내 은행 원화대출 연체율 0.2%…역대 최저

[News]

•   WSJ: Fed Officials See Need for Continued Interest-Rate Increases, but Less Certainty Over Destination

※   Officials at last month’s meeting acknowledged risks from raising rates too little and too much

※   Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 26–27, 2022

•   WSJ: Derby’s Take: FOMC Minutes Warn Federal Reserve Could Swing to Operating Loss Soon

•   WSJ: China to Join Russia Military Exercises as U.S. Rivals Deepen Ties

•   WSJ: Liz Cheney to Form New Anti-Trump Group, Ponders Presidential Bid

•   WSJ: CDC Director Outlines Restructuring Plans After Agency’s Covid-19 Response Fell Short

•   WSJ: Russia Hunts Saboteurs in Crimea After Blasts

•   WSJ: U.S. Veterans Race to Train Ukrainians as Marines; ‘Time Is Not on Their Side’

•   WSJ: Russians Who Fled Putin Seek Shelter and Redemption in Georgia

•   WSJ: China’s Scorching Heat Leads to Power Cuts, Factory Disruptions

※   Foxconn, VW, Toyota plants hit in Sichuan; crop output also affected

•   WSJ: China’s Housing Crisis Keeps Brewing in Beijing’s Weak Tea

•   WSJ: Iran Renews Demands for U.S. Guarantees in Nuclear Deal Talks

•   WSJ: Mexican Gangs Go on Rampage, Challenging President’s Security Strategy

•   WSJ: Hottest Chip Maker Sees Cooling Ahead

•   WSJ: Target’s Profit Sinks as Retailer Unloads Unwanted Inventory

•   WSJ: U.S. Shipping Backups Shift to East Coast and Gulf Coast Ports

•   WSJ: Clogged Ports Put Fall, Holiday Shipments in Doubt

•   WSJ: Tencent Posts First Revenue Drop Since 2004 IPO

•   WSJ: Hydrogen Planes Show Promise—and Their Limitations

•   WSJ: Amazon Tests TikTok-Like Feed in App

•   WSJ: Tech Companies Are Relinquishing Some Control of Online Ads to Users

•   NYT: Even on Biden’s Big Day, He’s Still in Trump’s Long Shadow

•   NYT: As China’s Economy Stumbles, Homeowners Boycott Mortgage Payments

•   NYT: Ukraine’s top commander says fighting at the front is ‘intense but fully controlled.’

•   NYT: Mexico Sees Its Energy Future in Fossil Fuels, Not Renewables

•   WP: Inside America’s monkeypox crisis — and the mistakes that made it worse

•   WP: Court strikes down ruling that blocked Biden’s oil drilling pause

•   WP: Crimea attacks point to Ukraine’s newest strategy, official says

•   FT: Taiwan tensions force multinationals to rethink China risk

•   FT: Nato seeks to ease Balkan tensions as Kosovo and Serbia warn of tough talks

•   FT: French conservatives struggle for relevance between Macron and Le Pen

•   FT: ‘Friction in the system’: the problem with Biden’s $369bn clean energy push

•   FT: ‘Shock the market’: Wall Street’s original ‘Dr Doom’ tells Fed to toughen up

•   FT: Bolsonaro relies on Brazil’s evangelical Christians to keep the faith

•   FT: European banks restart Russian bond trading as US clients wind down

•   FT: Germany’s Uniper on the ‘brink of insolvency’ after €12bn loss

•   FT: Climate tech: 369bn reasons to invest in technological solutions

•   FT: China’s Huarong issues profit warning on property sector woes

•   FT: Second European smelter to halt production as energy costs bite

•   FT: Taiwan tensions a boon for defence industry but supply chain disruptions loom

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Bowman Says Labor Demand Is Strong But Supply Uncertain

•   Bloomberg: Biden’s Freeze on Oil, Gas Leases on Public Land Is Reinstated — for Now

•   Bloomberg: Water at Key Rhine Waypoint Set to Rise Above Critical Level

•   Bloomberg: Truss Leads Sunak by 32 Points in Latest UK Tory Members Survey

•   Bloomberg: China Snipes at Biden’s Big Climate Win: ‘Can the US Deliver?’

•   Bloomberg: China’s Li Pledges to Keep Favorable EV Policies in BYD Visit

•   Bloomberg: Xi Jinping Reemerges in Sign China’s Secretive Summer Retreat Is Over

•   Bloomberg: China’s Infrastructure Boom Gets Swamped by Property Woes

•   Bloomberg: China Reliance on Taiwan Would Make Trade Retaliation Costly

•   Bloomberg: China’s Lure for European Companies Outshines Flaring Tensions

•   Bloomberg: China Set to Sell More Local Debt as Fiscal Income Slumps

•   Bloomberg: India May Delay Coal Plant Closures in Blow to Climate Action

•   Bloomberg: IMF-Ukraine Talks to Be Overseen by Veteran Argentina Negotiator

•   Bloomberg: Why East Africa’s Facing Its Worst Famine in Decades

•   Bloomberg: Green Debt Is Adding Market Share Even as Returns Have Lagged

•   Bloomberg: OPEC Chief Sees High Risk of Oil Squeeze Amid Bullish Demand

•   Bloomberg: Flotilla of Diesel Ships Sails for Europe as Energy Crisis Looms

•   Bloomberg: Natural Gas Shortage Fears Buoy US Market as Winter Reserves Lag

•   Bloomberg: UAE Oil Exports Boosted as Fujairah Loads Again After Flood

•   Bloomberg: Myanmar Buys Russian Oil as Emerging Markets Take Shunned Supply

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Says Iran Nuclear Deal Is ‘Unlikely’ After Oil Tumbles

•   Bloomberg: Russia Struggles to Ship Record Wheat Harvest as War Drags On

•   Bloomberg: Apple Targets Sept. 7 for IPhone Launch in Flurry of Devices

•   Bloomberg: Intel Is Left Behind as Chip Stocks Roar Back: Tech Watch

•   Bloomberg: Return-to-Office Deadline After Labor Day Sets Up Showdowns

•   Bloomberg: Carbon-Tech Draws Record Venture Funding as Investors Hunt for Impact

•   Bloomberg: The EV Charging Buildout Has a Problem: Many Stations Don’t Work

•   Bloomberg: Covid’s Harmful Effects on the Brain Reverberate Years Later

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Chinese EV Maker BYD Aims to Conquer World Markets as the Un-Tesla

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Russia sees 38% rise in energy export earnings this year - govt document

•   Reuters: IMF holds Saudi Arabia 2022 economic growth forecast at 7.6%

※   IMF: Saudi Arabia: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report

•   Reuters: Exclusive: China's EVE to supply BMW with large Tesla-like cylindrical batteries in Europe

•   Reuters: Analysis: China central bank, under pressure to ease, is hemmed-in by inflation, Fed jitters

•   Reuters: Analysis: Oil prices turn more volatile as investors exit the market

•   Reuters: Analysis: Action wanes at U.N. to isolate Russia almost six months into Ukraine war

•   Reuters: Analysis: As earnings support U.S. stock rebound, worries over future profits grow

•   CNN: When will price increases end? Probably never

•   CNBC: Drought conditions in Britain prompt water restrictions for millions in London

•   CNBC: China needs Taiwan’s biggest chipmaker — more than the other way around

•   CNBC: Apple reportedly in talks to make Apple Watches and MacBooks in Vietnam

•   CNBC: The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund loses $174 billion in the first half, cites inflation and war in Europe

•   CNBC: Wall Street analysts are betting on another red-hot commodity rally before year-end

•   Fox Business: KT McFarland: Biden's a ‘fool’ if he visits China after Xi Jinping’s ‘unprecedented’ re-election campaign

•   SCMP: How China, Japan’s hot trade and economic relationship is being tested by cold politics

•   SCMP: China’s fight against extreme poverty may be over, but a stark urban-rural divide lingers

•   SCMP: Chinese scientists develop new ‘controllable and reversible’ gene-editing technique

•   Caixin: Exclusive: Guangdong to Kick Off 6.7 Million Kilowatts of Coal Power Projects

•   Economic Times: Manufacturing investments rose 20.9% in FY20 before Covid pandemic: ASI report

•   Economic Times: Retailers report 18% growth in sales in July

•   매경(P1): "내 월급 빼고 다 올랐다?"…이 말 피해간 회사들 보니

•   매경: '이 회사' 직원들은 좋겠네…상반기 한사람 당 1억씩 받아갔다

•   매경: "1년치 장사 반년만에 끝냈다"…상반기 떼돈 번 회사 어디?

•   매경: 반도체 기업들 R&D·설비 통큰 투자 나서

•   매경(P1): [단독] 자산 많은 자영업자, 빚 탕감 제한

•   매경(P1): 18조 투자 넷플릭스…토종방송의 10배

•   매경: 방송도 케이블도 "이러다 다 죽어"…넷플릭스 쩐의전쟁 어느 정도길래

•   매경: '공룡OTT 독과점'에 놀란 정부…뒤늦게 실태조사 나서

•   매경: 하루 아침에 1000만원 비싸진 아이오닉5…미국서 무슨일이

•   매경: FTA '최혜국 대우' 위배 우려…산업부, 내주 업계와 긴급간담회

•   매경: 이해관계자 배려한 공급망 시대…애플은 1100개 협력사 실사

•   매경: "탄소배출 공시 의무화, 기업부담 크다"

•   매경: LG전자, KT와 손잡고 로봇사업 확대

•   매경: 스마트폰·반도체 시장 점유율…삼성전자, 경기침체에도 선방

•   매경: 외상 늘고 재고는 쌓이고…기업 현금흐름 나빠졌다

•   매경: "상폐 조심해야겠네"…상반기 '의견거절' 기업 36곳

•   매경: '재초환 완화' 용두사미 될수도…野 반대하면 법안 통과 불투명

•   한경(P1): "이러다 불법 저지를 판" 절규…중소기업 발칵 뒤집혔다

•   한경(P1): 한국만 있는 'LED조명 규제'…여전한 中企 모래주머니

•   한경: "사고 났다고 조선소 전체 멈춰…2500명 2주 일당 날렸다"

•   한경(P1): 돈줄 막힌 플랫폼…구조조정 시작됐다

•   한경: "1등 아니면 구조조정 대상"…티몬·왓챠 등 '생존형 M&A' 몰려

•   한경: "이참에 매물 사냥"…선두 플랫폼은 공격 투자

•   한경: 상장 못하면 회사 문 닫아야 하는데…적자 성장기업 '생살여탈권' 쥔 거래소

•   한경: 美 찾은 이재용이 길 열었다…'190억 투자' 사업의 정체

•   한경: '그룹 미운오리새끼' 포스코인터의 달라진 위상

•   한경: '칩4' 가입 찬반 팽팽…수출기업 300社 조사

•   한경: 서울우유의 배신…빵·커피 가격 줄줄이 오르나 '술렁'

•   한경: 새 아파트 입주못한 이유…10명 중 4명 "기존 집 안팔려서"

•   서경(P1): 기득권 키운 호봉제…"노동개혁 첫발은 공정임금"

•   서경(P1): '연봉잔치' 후폭풍 …국내게임사 인력 5년만에 줄었다

•   서경: 임금 빵빵하게 올려준 대기업…1인당 영업익 따져보니

•   서경: 15년 용접사도 손에 쥔건 年 3000만원…하청직의 눈물

•   서경: 국토부가 '告示' 한 줄만 고치면…서울 3만가구 공급 1년 당긴다

•   서경: '대선 공약' 리모델링 활성화 빠져… 전국 131곳 추진 동력 상실 우려

•   서경: 서빙로봇 80%가 중국산…개인정보 해외유출도 '무방비'

•   서경: 첨단 분야서도 두각…中, 세계 최초 DNA 나노로봇 개발

•   서경: [단독]열 에너지 활용에 눈돌리는 정부…'폐열 거래 플랫폼' 만든다

•   서경: 작년 공정위 과징금 1조 넘어…기업 불복에 94% '소송중'

•   서경: 열연강판·철근 판매 감소세로…열연 재고도 42% 급증

•   서경: 집값 정말 반토막 나나…서울서도 30% 하락 단지 속출

•   조선(P1): “4차 산업혁명시대 맞춰 노동법 바꿔야”

•   조선: “교육·노동·연금 3대 개혁, 여론 살펴 초당적으로 해결할 문제”

•   조선(P1): 北은 순항미사일 2발 쏘며 도발

•   조선: “똑똑, 룸서비스 왔어요” 로봇이 노크했다

•   조선: 新외부감사법 도입 4년, 기업 감사비용 130% 늘어

•   조선: 확진자 증가세에… 정부 “중증화율·치명률 낮아 우려할 정도 아냐”

•   조선: 1년새 투자 97% 축소한 네이버… 계열사 40개나 줄인다는 카카오

•   조선: 증시 반등공신은 ‘태조이방원’

•   조선: 삼성전자·애플의 치열한 프리미엄폰 시장 쟁탈전

•   조선비즈: 상반기 글로벌 투자 52% 늘어난 풍력발전…관련주 담아볼까

•   조선비즈: [단독] 高물가 타격, 어느 계층이 더? 소득·가구원수 등 특성별 물가 통계 만든다

•   조선비즈: 4대 은행 ATM 6개월 새 6000대 사라졌다… “현금 대신 간편결제”

•   중앙(P1): 공정위장 한기정 유력, 검찰총장 이원석 내정

•   중앙: [단독] 이재명 늘리려던 지역화폐…예산 7000억 모두 깎는다

•   중앙: 부품값 뛰는데 재고는 쌓이고…‘위기의 전자’

•   중앙: 한전 146조, LH 139조, 가스공사 34조…에너지·SOC 공기업 ‘빚더미’

•   동아: ‘전기 먹는 하마’ IDC 59%가 수도권에… 전력난 부채질

•   문화(P1): 방역규제 푸는 美·英·日… 韓 ‘엔데믹 전환’은 언제쯤?

•   문화: 공약 지킨다며… 지자체들 추석 앞두고 ‘퍼주기’ 경쟁

•   한국: 한경연 "한국 경제, 하반기 스태그플레이션 진입 가능성 높아"

•   국민(P1): [단독] 1만원 더 주면 100% 배차… 카카오모빌리티 논란

•   국민: 연공서열 줄이고 동료평가 반영… MZ세대 꺼리는 공직문화 바꾼다

•   세계: 이르면 하반기부터 자율주행 택시 나온다

•   경향(P1): 빌 게이츠 “20년 내 ‘다음 팬데믹’ 가능성 50%…한국, 국제 보건 강화에 더 기여를”

•   머니투데이: 중기부 "전국적 수소 사업 가능토록 법령 신속히 정비"

•   머니투데이: "이제 마음 편하게 주유소 가겠네"…전쟁 전으로 돌아간 기름값

•   머니투데이: 韓조선업, 빅사이클 2라운드 진입했다…선박가격 치솟고 발주급증

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 이정식 고용장관 “정부, 임금체계 개편 우선 추진”

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 짙어진 '퍼펙트 스톰'… TV·휴대폰 공장 70%만 돌린다 [한국경제, 퍼펙트스톰 몰려온다]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: ‘4개월 연속 무역적자’ 韓수출 비상… 정부 종합대책 이달말 나온다 [한국경제, 퍼펙트스톰 몰려온다]

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]교수 연봉만 ‘4억’…‘신의 직장’ 안 부러운 한전공대

•   디지털타임스(P1): [짚어봅시다] 집값 급락했다고요? "아직도 고점입니다"

•   디지털타임스: 스팩상장 벌써 20곳… 꽁꽁 언 IPO 녹인 대안책

•   디지털타임스: "K-증시 매력 없다" 외국기업, 올해 국내 상장 `0`

•   이데일리(P1): "몸값 2억이나 낮췄는데"…분양시장 침체에 외면

•   이데일리(P1): '램리서치·퀄컴맨…' 이재용 부회장, 글로벌 인재 수혈 속도

•   이데일리: 작년 국가채무 967.2조원…“코로나 이후 중장기 재정건전성 관리 필요”

•   이데일리: 美 인플레 감축법 통과..韓 배터리·신재생에너지 업계 ‘화색’

•   이데일리: 환율까지 움직이는 서학개미…올해도 15조원 샀다

•   이데일리: 채권도 미국으로…눈 돌리는 개미들

•   이데일리: 가상자산 발행부터 유통까지...금융위, 규율체계 마련한다

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 17만70명 확진, 이틀째 17만명대

•   연합: 수요부진 속 기업 창고에 쌓인 재고자산 급증…가동률 조정 나서

•   연합: 한경연 "경제 자유도 높아지면 국민 삶의 질 향상되고 경제성장"

•   전자신문: PCB 2분기도 날았다...역대급 어닝서프라이즈

•   전자신문: 현대차, 상반기 국내공장 가동률 '100%' 넘겼다

•   전자신문: 집단에너지 사업자 "SMP 상한제 철회를"

•   전자신문: 전기차 대호황…배터리 소재 빅5, 역대급 실적 달성

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(이근): Sustaining Economic Growth in an Age of Deglobalization

•   Project Syndicate(Josef Joffe): Green Pacifism Goes to War

•   Project Syndicate(Slavoj Žižek): Degeneracy, Depravity, and the New Right

•   Project Syndicate(Sultan Al Jaber): A Bold and Realistic Energy Transition

•   FT(Matthew C Klein): Beijing is tanking the domestic economy — and helping the world

•   FT(Ethan Wu): Are markets ignoring defaults?

•   FT(Helen Thomas): Climate is a supply chain problem that can’t be ignored

•   WSJ(Paul Dabbar): How the Chinese Communist Party Steals U.S. Technology

•   NYT(Peter Coy): The Housing Market Is Bad but Not That Bad

•   NYT(David Wallace-Wells): The Green Transition Is Happening Fast. The Climate Bill Will Only Speed It Up.

•   WP(George F. Will): China’s decline may be looming. Here’s how the U.S. can win, if it so chooses.

•   WP(Josh Rogin): China’s ambassador is pushing Beijing’s alternative facts

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Fed Shouldn’t Get Baited by Vigilante Stock Traders

•   Bloomberg(Julian Lee): Welcome to Europe’s Dark, Cold Winter: Elements by Julian Lee

•   Bloomberg(Anjani Trivedi): Don’t Believe the Grim Forecast. China Is Just Fine

•   Bloomberg(Chris Bryant): Putin Tears a Giant Hole in a Critical German Balance Sheet

•   Bloomberg(Hal Brands): Russia's War in Ukraine Is How the Soviet Union Finally Ends

•   Bloomberg(Andreas Kluth): Rhine, Tigris River Water Levels Are Grave Climate Change Warnings

•   MarketWatch(Antonia Colibasanu): Ukraine war is bringing new economic hardships and major world powers are caught in the crossfire

•   Fox Business(Larry Kudlow): These major energy provisions are insane

•   Reuters(Jamie McGeever): Wall St sees China slump as pump relief, to a point