Global Economic Monitor 220824

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Dollar, stocks slip as market struggles with Fed message

※   Investors mull how hawkish will Fed be at Jackson Hole

※   U.S. new home sales dive to 6-1/2-year low

※   PMI data compounds expectations of European recession

※   Oil bounces as Saudis talk of cutting output

•   China: China’s Yuan Slides to Two-Year Low as Economy Stumbles, Dollar Soars

•   Gasoline: US Gasoline Prices Have Fallen Every Day Since Mid-June

•   Natural gas: Endless Demand Spurs U.S. Natural-Gas Prices to Shale-Era Highs

•   Natural gas: European Gas Pauses Rally as Surging Costs Hit Economic Output

•   Metals: Supply concerns support copper despite bleak economic outlook

•   Grains: U.S. corn, soy rally as crop concerns rise

•   한국: 미 긴축·유럽 경기침체 우려…국내 금융시장 연일 '휘청'

•   한국: 환율쇼크에 외국인 매수세 주춤…'자금 엑소더스' 또 오나

•   한국: 尹도 나섰지만…폭주하는 환율 1346원 뚫렸다

[Indicators]

•   Global Q2 Goods trade barometer: WTO goods trade indicator stable as growth stagnates

•   US·Europe·Asia Jul. PMI: Global Economies Flash Warning of Sharp Slowdown

※   Surveys of purchasing managers point to weakness in manufacturing and services as higher prices hit household spending power

•   US Jul. New home sales: US New-Home Sales Plummet to Slowest Pace Since Early 2016

•   Eurozone Agu. Consumer confidence: Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Rebounds But Stays Near Record Low

•   Indonesia Benchmark rate: Indonesia’s Central Bank Raises Rates Unexpectedly as Inflation Bites

•   한국 2022년 행정안전통계: '1인 세대' 사상 첫 40% 돌파... 인구 2년 연속 감소

•   한국 상반기 지역별 고용조사: 대기업 있으니 걱정없네…SK하이닉스 둥지 튼 이천, 고용률 84%

•   한국 2분기 가계신용: 가계대출만 1758조… 2분기 가계빚 ‘사상 최대’

•   한국 8월 BSI·ESI: 기업 체감경기, 4개월 만에 소폭 개선…소비심리 회복 영향

[News]

•   WSJ: After Six Months of War in Ukraine, Momentum Tilts Against Russia

•   WSJ: U.S. Warns of Stepped-Up Russian Strikes in Ukraine

•   WSJ: Russia and Turkey’s Deepening Ties Prompt Concern in West Over Sanctions Compliance

•   WSJ: Biden Stays Silent on Mar-a-Lago Search

•   WSJ: Covid-19 Booster Campaign Is Expected to Launch Next Month

•   WSJ: China’s Central Bank Prods State Banks to Step Up Lending

•   WSJ: Brazilian Police Raid Pro-Bolsonaro Businessmen Who Talk of Keeping Him in Power

•   WSJ: Saudis, Allies Open Door to Oil-Output Cut to Keep Prices High

※   Saudi energy minister’s comments, backed by some OPEC members, are a letdown for White House

•   WSJ: Twitter’s Ex-Security Head Files Whistleblower Complaint on Spam, Privacy Issues

•   WSJ: Intel, Brookfield Sign $30 Billion Deal to Finance Chip Factories

•   WSJ: Apple to Cut New iPhone 14 Production Lag Between India and China

•   WSJ: Retailers Scrambling to Stow Inventories Are Turning to Transport Equipment

•   WSJ: Companies Face Challenges Determining Impact of New Minimum Tax

•   WSJ: America’s Office Glut Started Decades Before Pandemic

•   WSJ: A Gas Shortage Could Crunch Beer Bottles Too

•   NYT: Economic Aid, Once Plentiful, Falls Off at a Painful Moment

•   NYT: The Future of California’s Last Nuclear Power Plant

•   NYT: In Ukraine, a Nuclear Plant Held Hostage

•   NYT: Europe’s Rivers, Starved by Drought, Reveal Shipwrecks, Relics and Bombs

•   NYT: Britain’s Labor Shortage Is Helping Drive Its Inflation Problem

•   NYT: Why Wall Street is so focused on a Fed conference in Wyoming.

•   NYT: Can Uber Be Useful and Do Us Good?

•   NYT: Macy’s, Nordstrom Cut Outlooks as Shoppers Pull Back

•   NYT: Red-Hot Warehouse Market Faces a Reality Test

•   WP: Western sanctions are wounding but not yet crushing Russia’s economy

•   WP: Climate change in China hikes price of rare mushroom, a delicacy in Asia

•   FT: Almost half of Europe under drought warning conditions

•   FT: Coal-rich Poland laments reliance on Russia as home supplies run short

•   FT: The problem with Biden’s EV subsidy: hardly any cars will qualify

•   FT: Turkey taps tourism revenues in effort to steady its fragile economy

•   FT: Investors struggle to trade eurozone debt without ECB safety net

•   FT: Methane hunters: what explains the surge in the potent greenhouse gas?

•   Bloomberg: St. Louis, Minneapolis Feds Backed Full-Point Discount Rate Hike

•   Bloomberg: Powell Is Not About to Go All Volcker on Rates at Jackson Hole, Goldman’s Hatzius Says

•   Bloomberg: Inflation Gets a Boost From Higher Wages and Import Prices, New York Fed Study Says

※   FRBNY: Pass-Through of Wages and Import Prices Has Increased in the Post-COVID Period

•   Bloomberg: Revived Iran Deal Would Need a Congressional Vote, Lawmaker Says

•   Bloomberg: How Much Is Power in Europe? It’s Now Equal to Oil at $1,000 a Barrel

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s Drought May Be Continent’s Worst in at Least 500 Years

•   Bloomberg: Germany Taps ‘Boundless’ Fuel Potential in Canada Hydrogen Deal

•   Bloomberg: Germany to Provide Ukraine With More Than $500 Million in Aid

•   Bloomberg: Yuan’s Slump Forces China Into Balancing Act to Help Recovery

•   Bloomberg: PBOC Sticks to Limited Stimulus Even as China’s Outlook Darkens

•   Bloomberg: China Seeks to Boost Power Grids as Sichuan Reservoirs Run Dry

•   Bloomberg: China RRR Cuts in Play as Beijing Seeks to Bolster Property

•   Bloomberg: PBOC Has Scope to Cut Rates by Up to 50 Bps, Ex-Adviser Says

•   Bloomberg: Japan’s Inflation Trend Measures Reach Record High

•   Bloomberg: India Inflation to Ease to 4% in 2 Years After Peaking, Das Says

•   Bloomberg: China to Waive Some Africa Loans, Offer $10 Billion in IMF Funds

•   Bloomberg: Inflation Is a Terrible Bet in the Case of Linkers Plunging 17%

•   Bloomberg: Russia May Step Up Fuel Exports to Asia as EU Sanctions Tighten

•   Bloomberg: Russian LNG Plant Could Seek Payment in Rubles If Sanctions Bite

•   Bloomberg: Germany, France, Italy Backed Russian's Oil Projects in Run-Up to Ukraine's War

•   Bloomberg: How European Agencies Bankrolled Pre-War Russian Gas Expansion

•   Bloomberg: Delays Keep Piling Up for Steel Mill Critical to EV Transition

•   Bloomberg: Electric Car Battery Market: Automakers Have Way Around Material Shortages

•   Bloomberg: CATL Net Surges as Battery Giant Moves On From Tough Quarter

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: A ‘Tsunami of Shutoffs’: 20 Million US Homes Are Behind on Energy Bills

•   Reuters: Zelenskiy: Ukraine will take back Crimea when it chooses

•   Reuters: Biden approval rises to 41%, highest since early June, Reuters/Ipsos finds

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Iran has dropped some demands for nuclear deal, U.S. official says

•   Reuters: China says international services trade faces challenges

•   Reuters: China says COVID has exacerbated decline in births, marriages

•   Reuters: Taiwan president warns of heavy price to pay for an invasion

•   Reuters: Argentina prepares to restrict imports amid foreign exchange shortage -source

•   Reuters: Analysis: As Ukraine war drags on, Europe's economy succumbs to crisis

•   Reuters: Analysis: Experts question reliance on monkeypox vaccine with little data, short supply

•   CNN: Some Kia and Hyundai SUVs should be parked outside over fire risk

•   CNBC: China is facing another power crunch. But this time it’s likely to be different

•   CNBC: We’re in a ‘housing recession,’ experts say. Here’s what that means for homeowners, sellers and buyers

•   CNBC: Euro trades at two-decade low against the dollar. And some think it could slide much further

•   CNBC: Risk of ‘financial accident’ presents opportunity for investors, strategist says

•   CNBC: U.S. companies in Taiwan haven’t seen ‘appreciable’ disruptions over China tensions, says AmCham survey

•   CNBC: EV maker Polestar to provide batteries for ‘flying’ electric boats

•   MarketWatch: What Biden’s reported student debt cancellation plan could mean for borrowers

•   Fox Business: Student loan cancellation could cost $900B and favor top earners, analysis shows

•   Fox Business: US economy headed for recession by mid-2023, majority of economists say

※   NABE: NABE August 2022 Economic Policy Survey

•   SCMP: Mainland China, Taiwan and the US spread blame for rising tension, with charges of salami tactics all round

•   SCMP: China makes rare but ‘necessary’ foreign investment pitch as ‘they’re not writing cheques’

•   SCMP: China placed much fewer export orders from tech powerhouse Taiwan in July, before Pelosi visit

•   SCMP: Meet the American in China who revitalises historic villages by turning them into cultural and economic magnets

•   SCMP: China’s unprecedented heatwave and drought puts autumn crops at risk

•   SCMP: As South Korean youth sour on China, can ‘economic common sense’ bring bilateral balance?

•   Global Times: China’s trade prowess shrugs off West’s cliché 'threat theory;' hype can’t deny China’s contributions in global supply chain

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan to allow 50,000 arrivals as it plans to relax restrictions

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan buy $5.5bn of Russian fuel: think tank

•   Economic Times: India's GDP growth projected to spike to 4-quarter high of 13.0% in Q1: ICRA

•   Economic Times: India's Q1FY23 GDP growth expected at 15.7% with possibility of upward bias: SBI Ecowrap

•   매경(P1): "육아 이모님 月400만원…출산 하라고요?"

•   매경: 시터 이모님 400만원 드리고 나면 남는 것은?…퇴직 고민하는 워킹맘

•   매경: 육아비 치솟는데…외국인 도우미 도입 미적대는 정부

•   매경(P1): 尹 한마디에…원희룡 "1기 신도시 계획, 최대한 앞당길 것"

•   매경: 이주대책이 최대 난관…용적률 특혜 논란도 과제

•   매경: "5천개 넘는 경제형벌 조항, 기업인을 범죄자 만든다"

•   매경: 韓 전기·가스요금 올겨울 또 오르나

•   매경: '예대금리차 공시'에 은행도 소비자도 열받은 이유

•   매경: 폭염으로 문닫는 中공장…SK하이닉스, 타격받을까 우려

•   매경: 시멘트 값 추가 인상에…레미콘업계 강력 반발

•   매경: "집값 떨어지는데 분양가는 치솟아"…서울 평당 3280만원

•   한경(P1): 반도체의 선물…'일자리 엘도라도' 평택

•   한경: 집값도 '어메이징'…수도권 빠질 때 평택은 '쑥'

•   한경: "월 1000만원 버는 부부 수두룩"…일자리 성지 된 평택

•   한경: 삼성, 평택에 100조 투자…공장 3곳 더 짓는다

•   한경(P1): AS 인프라 따라…전기차 보조금 차등 추진

•   한경: 테슬라 정비센터 전국에 고작 9곳…전기차 보조금 확 깎이나

•   한경(P1): [단독] LG전자 채용 보장…전장 계약학과 생긴다

•   한경: 천연가스 비상사태에 돈줄 마른 가스공사

•   한경: 에너지 대란 우려에 LNG선 초호황…"韓조선사, 5년치 일감 다 채웠다"

•   한경: LG 전장 상반기 8조 수주…벤츠·BMW 등 러브콜 쇄도

•   한경: 농심 "더 이상은 못 버텨"…라면값 1년 만에 또 올린다

•   한경: 채권전문가 10명 중 9명 "기준금리 0.25%P 오를 것"

•   한경: 주가 27% 떨어져도…'삼성전자' 산 개미 85만명 늘었다

•   한경: 2년간 경기에 25만가구 '폭풍 입주'

•   서경(P1): 최악이 현실로?…"메모리 0%대 성장" K반도체 쇼크

※   WSTS: WSTS News Release August 2022

•   서경: 韓주력 D램·낸드 가격만 급락…"이달부터 반도체 수출도 역성장"

•   서경: 7월 메모리 수출 14개월만에 최저…작년보다 10% 줄어

•   서경: 삼성·SK하이닉스, 3분기 영업익 14~24% 급감 전망

•   서경(P1): 중고차 사고 보험가입까지…은행앱 하나로 다 된다

※   금융위: [보도자료] (금융규제혁신) ➊ 금융회사의 플랫폼 업무 활성화 및온라인 플랫폼 금융상품 중개업 시범운영 ➋ 금융규제 샌드박스 내실화 추진

•   서경: 공기업 개혁 발목잡나…'1호 노동이사' 윤곽

•   서경: 양·음극재 국산 소재 활용 확대…폐배터리 투자도 늘려

•   서경: 전작 뛰어 넘은 '갤Z4'…사전예약 100만대 육박 '신기록'

•   조선(P1): 한해 병원 500번 넘게 간 사람 532명

•   조선(P1): 건보료도 못낸 가구 73만… 곳곳 ‘세 모녀’ 있다

•   조선(P1): [NOW] 노무사·감정평가사… 전문직 지원자는 최다… 공무원 경쟁률은 최저

•   조선(P1): 야당에 막힌 1주택자 종부세 완화

•   조선: 건보 적립금 7년뒤 고갈, 2040년엔 누적적자 678조

•   조선: 文정부 5년간… 국가기금 67개 중 26개가 순자산 감소

•   조선: 日, 입국 전 코로나 검사 폐지 검토... OECD 중 한국만 유지

•   조선: 역전세 대란 났다…주인은 세입자 못 구하고 세입자는 보증금 반환 걱정

•   조선비즈: “반년 만에 20% 껑충”… 치솟는 인건비에 건설현장 ‘곡소리’

•   조선비즈: “1억 넘어 안 팔리고 생산량도 제자리”… 마이크로 LED TV 대중화 애먹는 삼성전자

•   조선비즈: 저가수주 주범 ‘초대형 유조선’ 실종… 韓 조선사 수익성 개선 기대

•   조선비즈: 상반기 실적은 줄었는데 회장님 보수는 올랐네

•   인베스트조선: 잇따르는 대기업 지배구조개편…불황형 합병이 늘어난다

•   동아(P1): [단독]정의선 긴급 방미… ‘현대차 보조금 제외’ 해법 논의

•   동아: [단독]한미, 北 미사일 액체연료 주입정황 포착… 을지훈련 기간 ICBM 도발 가능성 주시

•   동아: 지방 3억이하 집 2채이상 매수자 8만명 육박

•   한국(P1): 26조 잭팟 K방산, 더 큰 대박 '애프터마켓'이 기다린다

•   국민(P1): 대책 없는 쌀 행정에… 풍년 앞두고 농민도 농협도 한숨

•   국민: 尹 정부 ‘수소 생태계 만들기’ 文 정부보다 더 적극적

•   국민: 바이든도 눈독 들인 ‘수소’… 환경·안보·경제 잡는 ‘약속 어음’

•   국민: 책 내고, 백서 번역… 코인거래소 ‘눈물의 적자생존’

•   서울(P1): [단독] 美 ‘중국의 韓사드 보복’ 대응 법안 낸다

•   한겨레(P1): 신축빌라 많은 곳들 ‘깡통전세’ 수두룩

•   한겨레: 뜨거워지는 서비스 로봇 시장…삼성·LG전자 경쟁에 현대차까지 가세

•   한겨레: “EU ‘배터리 여권’ 도입 앞서 대응 필요”

•   경향: “선택이 아닌 생존 문제” RE100 가입 속도 내는 기업들

•   머니투데이(P1): 시장 '주춤'해도 한국 TV는 강했다…삼성 점유율 1위·LG 올레드 1위

•   머니투데이: "문제는 유럽이야" 경제학자의 경고...환율 1400원 카운트다운

•   머니투데이: [단독]"대형마트 의무휴업 없앨까"...규제심판회의 무기한 연기

•   머니투데이: 내달 신도시 '교통지옥' 특별대책 나온다...전세·전기버스 등 투입

•   헤럴드경제(P1): ‘어린이날 용돈 받는’ Z세대 취업 후에도 ‘엄빠돈’ [Z세대 금융생활]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "다주택자 종부세 기준 6억 → 11억, 실거주 않는 1주택자 세혜택 축소"

•   이데일리(P1): [단독]연구원 발목잡는 연구개발혁신법..KAIST 비정규직 연구원들 떠난다

•   이데일리: 불법점거에 기업 피해액만 수백억인데…정부 방임에 '악순환'

•   이데일리: 하이트진로 점거 일주일…“손배부터 재논의” vs “완전 면책은 안돼”

•   이데일리: "발전효율 끝판왕 연료전지…韓, 아시아 시장 허브로"

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 13만4483명 확진…어제보다 7931명 감소

•   연합: 美, 내달 8~9일 IPEF 장관급회의…4개 분야 본격 협상 착수

•   연합: 올해 개인 채권 순매수 10조원 돌파…안전자산으로 자금 이동

•   연합: 한전 부채 규모 국내 기업중 1위…삼성전자·현대차보다 많아

•   연합: '재무구조 취약' 공기업, 단기자금에 의존…상반기 2.8배 증가

•   연합: "전통시장 추석 차례상 비용 30만1천원…작년보다 9.7%↑"

•   연합: 근로자 연봉 가장 높은 지역은…서울 강남구, 7천440만원

•   연합: 배터리 여권' 도입한 EU…"韓도 이력 추적 시스템 마련해야"

•   전자신문(P1): 삼성SDI, 유럽 전기차 배터리 생산에 2조원 추가투자

•   전자신문(P1): 스마트공장 예산 대폭 삭감 위기…중기 제조경쟁력 약화 우려

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Jeffrey Frankel): Why Commodity Prices Are Likely to Fall Further

•   Project Syndicate(Javier Solana): European Integration in a Fragmenting World

•   Project Syndicate(Mark J. Roe): Mark J. Roe Says More…

•   Project Syndicate(Stephen S. Roach): China’s Growth Sacrifice

•   FT(Martin Wolf): A second Trump term would imperil the republic

•   FT(Janan Ganesh): The autocratic world will split before the west does

•   FT(Helen Thomas): Business will need energy support this winter

•   FT(June Yoon): Hyundai is catching up with Tesla in the global EV race

•   FT(Lex): Government debt: index linking is backfiring for Britain

•   WSJ(Bjorn Lomborg): The Inflation Reduction Act Does Little to Reduce Climate Change

•   WP(Marc A. Thiessen): The Inflation Reduction Act won’t reduce inflation. Or climate change.

•   WP(Greg Sargent, Paul Waldman): Will Bolsonaro stage a coup? Bernie Sanders is warning of the worst.

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): China's Hydro Power Cuts Could Herald a Himalayan-Scale Crisis for Rivers, Dams

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): Saudi Arabia Makes a Push for $100 Oil: Elements by Javier Blas

•   Bloomberg(Liam Denning): $10 Gas? Don’t Be Alarmed. It's the Other Kind

•   Bloomberg(Andreas Kluth): Putin Wouldn’t Shrink from Starting Chernobyl 2.0 in Ukraine

•   Bloomberg(Tim Culpan): An Early iPhone Could Give the World Economy a Needed Lift

•   Bloomberg(Thomas Black): If Factories Don't Return to US Now, They Never Will

•   Bloomberg(Eduardo Porter): The Era of Economic Whiplash Is Just Beginning

•   Fox News(Liz Peek): Democrats' spin Biden success and wish upon a star for midterm magic but don't you believe it

•   Fox Business(Larry Kudlow): US is either in recession or on the front end of a recession