Global Economic Monitor 220803

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street dips, dollar gains on economic, geopolitical concerns

※   Flight to safety boosts dollar

※   Crude up slightly ahead of OPEC+ meeting

※   Pelosi Taiwan visit fuels geopolitical tensions

※   Report hints at easing U.S. jobs market

•   Japan: Yen Recovery Cut Short After Biggest Four-Day Advance Since 2020

•   Natural gas: European Gas Extends Gains With Russia Risk and Demand in Focus

•   Metals: Copper falls as U.S.-China tension pushes investors to safer assets

•   Grains: Wheat at 1-week low as Ukraine shipments resume; corn, soy ease

•   한국: 미중 갈등 확대 우려에 코스피 0.52% 하락…2,430대 후퇴

•   한국: 엔화당 원화값 두 달만에 장중 1000원 밑으로

[Indicators]

•   US Q2 Household debt: US Household Debt Surpasses $16 Trillion on Higher Mortgages

•   US Jun. Job openings: Demand for Workers Fell in June to Lowest Level in Nine Months

•   UK Jul. House prices: UK house prices rise at 11% annual rate despite cost of living crisis

•   China Jul. Caixin New economy index: Caixin’s New Economy Index Rises on Capital Investment Growth

•   India Jul. Balance of trade: Asia’s Top Diesel Exporter Cuts Tariffs as Trade Gap Swells

•   India Jul. Employment: India's unemployment lowest in six months at 6.80% in July: CMIE

•   한국 상반기 부산항 컨테이너 물동량: 부산항 상반기 '컨' 물동량 2.1% 줄어…목표 달성 빨간불

•   한국 7월 CPI: 7월 물가 또 최고치, 상승 속도는 줄어…가을 오면 정점 찍나

※   매경: 오이 73%·배추 72% '껑충'…불붙은 식탁물가 추석이 고비

•   한국 7월 외환보유액: 7월말 외환보유액 4천386억달러…5개월 만에 증가

•   한국 7월 건설기업 경기실사지수: 7월 건설 체감경기 소폭 회복에도 ”여전히 부진 전망”

[News]

•   WSJ: Nancy Pelosi Arrives in Taiwan as China Warns of Disastrous Consequences

※   House speaker to meet island’s leader Wednesday; Beijing responds with a military show of force

•   WSJ: Afghanistan Strike, Pelosi Visit to Taiwan Put Foreign Policy Back on Center Stage for Biden

•   WSJ: Fed Officials Signal Additional Rate Rises Warranted to Slow Economy

※   ‘Interest rates are higher, but they’re not necessarily tight,’ Chicago Fed President Charles Evans says

•   WSJ: Biden Names Monkeypox Czar Amid Criticism of Federal Response

•   WSJ: Russia Shells Apartment Buildings in Southern Ukraine

•   WSJ: Ukraine Scrambles to Shift Its Grain Before Storage Runs Out

•   WSJ: OPEC+ Considers Modest Oil-Production Increase, Output Freeze, Say Delegates

※   Alliance meets Wednesday to decide on production plan for September

•   WSJ: Monkeypox Patients Report Excruciating Pain and Lack of Guidance as U.S. Cases Mount

•   WSJ: Low-Income Nations Turn to Risky Bank Loans

•   WSJ: Brazil’s Surprising Economy Might Mean More Rate Hikes After Wednesday

•   WSJ: Europe’s Coal-Buying Frenzy Means Windfall for Producers

•   WSJ: Robinhood Lays Off 23% of Staff

•   WSJ: SoftBank Emerges as a Big Loser of the Tech Downturn. Again.

•   WSJ: Caterpillar Second-Quarter Sales Rise With Higher Prices for Machinery

•   WSJ: Chip Maker AMD Prospers as Rival Intel Struggles

•   WSJ: Uber Revenue Doubles, Sending Shares Surging

•   NYT: Analysis Deems Biden’s Climate and Tax Bill Fiscally Responsible

•   NYT: How the New Climate Bill Would Reduce Emissions

•   NYT: The Crypto Market Crashed. They’re Still Buying Bitcoin.

•   FT: US imposes sanctions on Putin’s reputed girlfriend and other Russian elites

•   FT: European imports of Russian diesel jump, highlighting challenge to EU plans for ban

•   FT: Eurozone mortgage rate rises threaten house price growth

•   FT: Draghi factor set to weigh on Italy’s snap elections

•   FT: Investors ‘relaxed’ on Tory leadership rivals’ economic plans

•   FT: British household energy bills to be at ‘devastating’ levels until ‘at least 2024’

•   FT: The Taliban’s new order: ‘We’ll introduce a system for the world’

•   FT: South Africa hopes private sector can help end Eskom power crisis

•   FT: North Korea’s Covid crusade sheds light on Kim Jong Un’s propaganda strategy

•   FT: BP has no plans for fuel price cuts for motorists despite surging profits

•   FT: Maersk raises profit forecasts for third time this year as supply chain hit persists

•   FT: Shale patch pioneer Chesapeake to ditch oil in favour of natural gas

•   Bloomberg: China Slaps Export Ban on 100 Taiwan Brands Before Pelosi Visit

•   Bloomberg: This Is How China Could Hit Back Over Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit

•   Bloomberg: Taiwan Tensions Raise Risks in One of Busiest Shipping Lanes

•   Bloomberg: Pelosi’s Taiwan Trip Spurs Chinese Battery Giant to Pause Plant Debut

•   Bloomberg: Biden Team Defends China Tariffs Amid Debate to Trim Some Duties

•   Bloomberg: Food Inflation Is Rampant Around the World

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Warns Against Being ‘Too Early’ in Fading Recession Risk

•   Bloomberg: Pozsar Says L-Shaped Recession Is Needed to Conquer Inflation

•   Bloomberg: US Agrees to $3 Billion Saudi Missile Sale After Biden Visit

•   Bloomberg: Yellen Wades Into Debate Over Tax Hit From Compromise Bill

•   Bloomberg: ECB Spent Billions to Shield Italy Using First Line of Defense

•   Bloomberg: German Labor Shortages Menace Half of Companies Across Economy

•   Bloomberg: Exodus of Young Germans From Family Nest Is Getting Ever Bigger

•   Bloomberg: Putin, Erdogan to Discuss Ukraine, Grain on Friday, Kremlin Says

•   Bloomberg: Russia’s Nuclear Power Swagger Unruffled by War as Summit Nears

•   Bloomberg: Chinese Leaders Say GDP Goal Is Guidance, Not a Hard Target

•   Bloomberg: China’s Covid Outbreak Stabilizes as Shanghai Cases Hold at Zero

•   Bloomberg: China’s Property Crisis Threatens to Drag Down Steel Industry

•   Bloomberg: India Planning Carbon Credit Market for Energy, Steel and Cement

•   Bloomberg: Japan Learns to Live With Covid as Locals Flock to Travel Spots

•   Bloomberg: Argentina Is Running Out of Cash to Stave Off Devaluation

•   Bloomberg: Alibaba and Tencent Face End of an Era as Sales Start to Shrink

•   Bloomberg: Climate Bill Would Put US Back in Global Race for EV Leadership

•   Reuters: Russia accuses U.S. of direct Ukraine war role, grain ship anchors off Turkish coast

•   Reuters: G7 mulls options to restrict Russian oil profits

•   Reuters: Zawahiri strike gives Biden counter-terrorism strategy boost, but concerns persist

•   Reuters: Biden continues to test positive for COVID, his doctor says

•   Reuters: Fossil fuel side deal for U.S. climate bill slammed by green groups

•   Reuters: Automakers press U.S. Senator Manchin for changes to EV tax credit proposal

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. banks face trillion-dollar reverse repo headache

•   Reuters: Analysis: Crisis in Iraq tests its stability and Iran's sway

•   CNBC: Russia faces ‘economic oblivion’ despite claims of short-term resilience, economists say

•   CNBC: ‘Dirty ol’ coal’ is making a comeback and consumption is expected to return to 2013′s record levels

•   CNBC: After the CHIPS Act: U.S. still has a long road ahead to rival Asia in semiconductor manufacturing

•   CNBC: Apple chipmaker TSMC warns Taiwan-China war would make everybody losers

•   MarketWatch: Financial markets may see a 3-month string of 8.8% inflation readings starting next week, adding up to `bad news’

•   Fox Business: Manchin-Schumer bill would reinstate tax on imported oil and petroleum products

•   SCMP: China’s property market slump and weak demand highlight fragile economic recovery

•   Nikkei Asia: LNG price spike causes energy crises in strapped Asian nations

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan LDP members face pressure over Unification Church ties

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan plans green transition road map for emissions-heavy industries

•   Nikkei Asia: Chip industry supplier Showa Denko to boost output of wafer polishing agent

•   Nikkei Asia: SoftBank-backed Chinese robot maker to build plant in Toyota's backyard

•   Nikkei Asia: Defying death: Japan and Singapore lead Asia's stem cell research race

•   매경(P1): 부산·울산까지…지방소멸 덮쳤다

•   매경: 특정산업 쏠림 심한 지방도시…업황 나빠지자 인구 '썰물'

•   매경: 인구분석 넘어 6개 경제지표 첫 반영

•   매경: 서울은 일자리 많아도…주거비에 발목 잡혀 인구 줄어

•   매경(P1): 車 배터리 점유율, 한국 10%P 줄 때 중국이 다 가져가

•   매경: 전세계 車배터리 압도하는 中…韓안방도 위협

•   매경: 물가 급등에 놀란 국회…유류세 인하·밥값 지원법 처리

•   매경: 반도체 용수 중단 '몽니' 막으려…여주시 달려간 산업부

•   매경: 대기업 계열사 사업확장…운송·헬스케어로 몰렸네

※   공정위: 대기업집단 계열회사 변동 현황 공개

•   매경: 탄소중립시대 맞아?…정유4社, 휘발유 생산·수출 최대

•   매경: SK하이닉스, 비메모리 생산 키파운드리 인수절차 완료

•   매경: AI속기사, 이젠 경찰조사때 대신 받아쓴다

•   매경: 3D지도·로봇개로 건설현장 사고 막는다

•   매경: 삼바 "mRNA백신 원료 생산 성공"…완제 이어 일괄제조 갖춰

•   매경: "의외의 선방" 상장사 절반이 깜짝실적…하반기는 불안불안

•   매경: 중개업소 58% "하반기 집값 떨어질 것"

•   한경(P1): 인플레 시대, 가격 결정력이 실적 갈랐다

•   한경: "SK·대한항공·대덕전자 등 깜짝 실적 기대"

•   한경: 가격 올린 車·2차전지 '웃고'…원자재값에 치인 건설·화학 '울상'

•   한경: 테슬라·LVMH·코카콜라…탄탄한 수요 앞세워 '고공비행'

•   한경(P1): 美·中 '반도체 전쟁'…고래싸움에 등 터지는 삼성·SK

•   한경: 서울대도 미달인데…반도체 석·박사 정원 늘려준다고?

•   한경: 4일 첫 규제심판회의…1호 안건은 '대형마트 영업규제 개선'

•   한경: "오늘하루 無지출"…"노트북도 떨이제품 구매"

•   한경: 全직원 20% 한 번에 뽑는 K배터리·방산기업

•   한경: 레벨4 자율주행 치고나간 中…한국은 "5년 뒤 상용화" 뒷짐

•   한경: 미계약분 '줍줍' 열풍은 옛말…11번 청약공고 단지도

•   서경(P1): [단독] 수출 중기의 몰락…3년새 2270곳 사라졌다

•   서경: 中 봉쇄 이어 보복 이중덫…수출 중기 "세관에 발묶여 매출 70% 날아가"

•   서경: 날개 꺾인 中企…수출비중 17.2%로 추락

•   서경(P1): 대기업 반도체 투자도 稅공제 20%로 확대

•   서경: 365조' 美반도체법에 자극받은 與……稅공제기간도 2030년으로 늘렸다

•   서경(P1): [단독] 국민연금 '주주대표 소송' 불씨 살아나나

•   서경: 장관에 이사장까지 공석…내달 기금위 논의 '공회전' 불보듯

•   서경(P1): '건보 재정지원' 못박는 국회…2030년 30조까지 불어난다

•   서경: 文케어부터 이재명 '탈모 보장'까지…'空약' 먹잇감 된 건보 재정

•   서경: 노인장기요양보험 매년 지출 20% 급증…건보 속 '숨은 복병'

•   서경: 허울뿐인 건정심…"건보 외부통제 장치 마련해야"

•   서경(P1): 정부 손 놓은 새…우윳값 기습 인상

•   서경: 유가공업계 "인건비·기름값이라도 반영해야"…'밀크플레이션' 덮치나

•   서경: [단독]삼성전자, 신설 신사업TF 총괄에 정성택 영입…M&A 속도내나

•   서경: [시그널] 메리츠증권發 '전환사채 물량폭탄' 쏟아지나

•   서경: 영끌 할 사람 다했나…2030 아파트 매수 비중 역대 최저

•   조선: “중국의 대만 침략 현실화땐 전세계 3400조원 경제 손실”

•   조선비즈: 한은 금통위원 전원 “인플레 기대심리 꺾기 위한 빅스텝”…추가 인상 시사

※   한국은행: 금융통화위원회 의사록(2022년도 제13차)(2022.7.13)

•   조선비즈: 하반기 통화정책 최대 변수는 ‘기후변화’…태풍發 ‘10월 빅스텝’ 가능성은?

•   조선비즈: “삼성·SK 잡아라” D램 개발 속도 내는 대만 난야… 10나노 생산 2배 늘린다

•   조선비즈: 얼어붙은 부동산 향방은… 전문가 “하락 아닌 조정장. 연말까지는 내린다”

•   인베스트조선: '냉각기' 회사채 시장, 이젠 대기업 보증도 안 통한다

•   중앙: 놀이문화가 변했다…거리두기 풀려도 풀죽은 노래방·PC방

•   중앙: 강남선 3억 낮춰도 전세 안나간다…새 아파트 덮친 '입주난'

•   중앙: 합치고, 쪼개고, 팔고…재계는 지금 사업 재편 중

•   동아: “中企선 유급휴가 어려워… 확진돼도 그냥 출근” 자율방역 역설

•   동아: “기후대응기금 걷어 공공건물 리모델링에 쓰는 한국”

•   문화(P1): “북핵 CVID에 전념할 것”… 美·英·佛 NPT 공동성명

•   문화: 임피제 도입 中企, 대기업 절반 안돼

•   세계: 반도체난 완화 조짐에도… 신차 주문하면 2024년 출고? [FACT IN 뉴스]

•   머니투데이(P1): [단독]"尹정부와 文정부는 다르다"...공정위 지주회사과 폐지

•   머니투데이(P1): 현대 '수소트럭' 엑시언트, 유럽 최대 상용차 시장 '독일' 뚫었다

•   머니투데이: 40대 직장인 "퇴직연금 다 넣었다"…4% 넘는 수익 '오픈런'까지 등장

•   머니투데이: 대기업도 은행 문 '똑똑'…매월 불어난 기업대출, 양날의 검?

•   머니투데이: "회식 자제가 사내 복지"…삼성 나서자 MZ직장인 '반색'

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 가전·전자기기 안팔린다… 쌓이는 재고에 기업들 투자 재검토 [짙어진 '불황의 그늘']

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 적자 줄인 조선 빅3, 실적 정상화 시동

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 원자재값 인상에 연식변경까지… 하반기 車가격 더 오른다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: K배터리 ‘中 아성’ LFP 개발 뛰어들었다

•   아시아경제: [단독]원전수출국, 국정과제 최종본서 빠졌다

•   이데일리(P1): [단독]'완판 때까지 무한 반복'…무순위 청약제 손본다

•   이데일리: [단독]"미계약·미분양 증가로 주택시장 위축 우려 커"

•   이데일리: 계획보다 늦어진 공매도 재개…전면 재개는 언제쯤

•   연합: 오늘 신규확진 12만명 안팎…누적 확진자 2천만명 넘었다

•   연합: SK하이닉스, 세계 최고층 238단 낸드 개발…"내년 상반기 양산"

•   연합: 국내 500대 기업, 상반기 직원 수 증가…순고용 1만2천여명

•   연합: 라이더·특고·인턴 통계 나온다…통계청, 고용통계 전면 개편

•   연합: "코로나19, 취약계층에 더 타격…저소득층 직장 유지율 8.4%p↓"

•   전자신문: 산업硏 "수도권·비수도권 격차, 규제혁신과 여러 도시 연계협력으로 풀어야"

•   전자신문: 대기업, 충전사업 내재화 속도…M&A 거품 빠진다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Raghuram G. Rajan): The Post-Inflation Economy That Could Be

•   Project Syndicate(Andrew Sheng, Xiao Geng): The G20 in an Age of War

•   Project Syndicate(Hans-Werner Sinn): The End of the EU’s Free Lunch

•   Project Syndicate(Simon Johnson): Russia’s Looming Defeat in Ukraine

•   Project Syndicate(Jason Furman): America’s Wage-Price Persistence Must Be Stopped

•   Project Syndicate(Minxin Pei): The Coming Taiwan Crisis

•   FT(Katie Martin): What market optimism misses

•   FT(Tabby Kinder): Crunch looms in China-US wrangle over delistings

•   FT(Nicolaes Tollenaar): The future of stablecoins is commercial bank money

•   FT(Tom Mitchell): Xi misses his chance to dismiss Pelosi’s trip as feeble grandstanding

•   FT(Oleg Churiy): Ukraine needs more western support and smarter economic policies to win the war

•   FT(Alan Beattie): The US ‘friendshoring’ experiment risks making enemies

•   FT(Lex): Taiwan/Pelosi: push to pick US or China leaves TSMC in dire straits

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan Straits

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): From Global Pandemic to Pandemonium

•   WSJ(Jake Auchincloss, Stephanie Murphy): Free Trade Can Fight Inflation

•   WSJ(Phil Gramm, Mike Solon): Lessons From the Great Inflation of 1973-81

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Can Inflation Reduction Save the Planet?

•   NYT(Thomas L. Friedman): Why Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan Is Utterly Reckless

•   WP(Nancy Pelosi): Why I’m leading a congressional delegation to Taiwan

•   WP(Max Boot): Biden might be the Democrats’ worst possible nominee (except for all the others)

•   WP(Henry Olsen): Please, Tories. Don’t fall for the supply-side snake oil.

•   WP(Jennifer Rubin): Inflation is the least significant aspect of the Inflation Reduction Act

•   WP(Josh Rogin): The real crisis over Taiwan will start after Pelosi comes home

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): Let’s Not Mince Words While the Global Economy Heads South

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): China’s Housing Bust Goes Beyond Steel: Elements by David Fickling

•   Bloomberg(Tyler Cowen): Democrats' Climate Bill Is a Clean Energy Dream. That's Not Enough.

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Assume That the Bottom for US Equities Isn't Yet In, Despite the July Rally

•   Bloomberg(Anjani Trivedi): Billions of Dollars in Deals Can’t Smooth the US EV Supply Chain

•   Bloomberg(Hal Brands): Ukraine's Coming Attack Will Win or Lose the War Against Russia

•   Bloomberg(Stephen L. Carter): Are We in a Recession? Don't Ask Wikipedia

•   Bloomberg(Minxin Pei): Pelosi’s Taiwan Trip Is Only the Start of US Headaches

•   MarketWatch(Houze Song): The solution to China's giant mortgage crisis is obvious -- except to Beijing

•   Reuters(Andy Home): China steps up copper imports despite renewed slowdown