Global Economic Monitor 220825

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street ends higher, with all eyes on Jackson Hole

※   Peloton rallies after agreeing to sell products on Amazon

※   Intuit gains on upbeat revenue forecast, Q4 results

※   Indexes: S&P 500 +0.29%, Nasdaq +0.41%, Dow +0.18%

•   Metals: Aluminium rises on smelter closures but grim demand outlook weighs

•   Grains: U.S. corn steadies after hitting two-month high

•   한국: 코스피, 6거래일 만에 상승 전환…외국인 '사자'

[Indicators]

•   US Q1 Nonfarm payrolls(rev.): Job Market Stronger Than Previously Reported, Data Show

•   US Jul. Durable goods orders: Companies Pulled Back on Orders for Big-Ticket Items in July

•   US Jul. Pending home sales: US Pending Home Sales Drop to Lowest Since Start of the Pandemic

•   US Jul. House prices(Black Knight): Home prices fell for the first time in 3 years last month – and it was the biggest decline since 2011

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications(MBA): First-time buyers show more demand for mortgages, even as interest rates rise

•   UK Jun. Imports of goods from Russia: UK imports from Russia hit record low as Ukraine sanctions bite

•   India Jul. Economic activity(Bloomberg): India Economic Indicators Gave Mixed Signals on Recovery in July

•   Russia Jul. Industrial production: Russia Industry Surprises With Small Drop as Economy Adapts

•   Russia Jul. Oil and gas condensate output: Russia's July oil and gas condensate output rises to 10.76 mln bpd -stats office

•   South Africa Jul. CPI: South African Inflation Quickens at Fastest Pace Since 2009

•   Saudi Arabia Jun. Oil exports: Saudi Arabia’s Oil Export Earnings Hit a Fresh High in June

•   한국 6월 인구: 합계출산율 0.8명도 깨졌다…독보적 세계 꼴찌

※   한경: 애 낳으면 땅 준다는 이탈리아보다 낮다…한국 '압도적 꼴찌'

•   한국 7월 PPI: 7월 생산자물가 0.3%↑…7개월 연속 올랐지만 상승률은 둔화

•   한국 7월 기업 직접금융 조달실적지난달 주식 발행 7031억원…유증 감소에 전월대비 44.1% 감소

•   한국 9월 BSI(전경련): 9월 경기전망도 '부정적'…BSI 95.8로 6개월 연속 부진

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukraine Says Missile Strike Kills 22 as Country Marked Subdued Independence Day

•   WSJ: U.S. Pledges Another $3 Billion for Ukraine Defense, the War’s Largest Aid Package

※   Washington also plans to name the military mission supporting Kyiv and appoint a general to lead the training and assistance effort

•   WSJ: Russia Detains Putin Critic Ex-Mayor on Charges of Discrediting Military

•   WSJ: Jerome Powell’s Dilemma: What if the Drivers of Inflation Are Here to Stay?

•   WSJ: Fed’s Kashkari Says No Time To Back Off On Inflation Struggle

•   WSJ: Biden’s Student Loan Forgiveness Plan to Cancel Up to $20,000 in Debt for Millions

※   Administration’s plan, long-sought by advocates, will face legal hurdles and some political blowback ahead of midterm elections

•   WSJ: FBI Search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Heads to Court

•   WSJ: Democrats’ Outlook for Midterm Elections Brightens After New York Win

•   WSJ: Inflation Reduction Act’s Real Climate Impact Is a Decade Away

•   WSJ: Over 2 Million Americans Aren’t Working Due to Long Covid

•   WSJ: The Surprise in a Faltering Economy: Laid-Off Workers Quickly Find Jobs

•   WSJ: China Rolls Out Aid to Help Power Firms and Save Rice Harvest

•   WSJ: U.S., Iran Edge Toward Nuclear Deal as Israel Warns It Cedes Too Much to Tehran

•   WSJ: Elon Musk-Twitter Legal Fight Complicated by Whistleblower Complaint

•   WSJ: Twitter, Elon Musk Lawyers Battle Over User Data in Court After Whistleblower Complaint

•   WSJ: Twitter Whistleblower Peiter Zatko Has Warned of Cyber Disasters for Decades

•   WSJ: Nvidia Issues Muted Outlook as Gaming Revenue Drops 33%

•   WSJ: Apple Sends Invites for Sept. 7 Event, New iPhones Expected

•   WSJ: Amazon to Shut Down Amazon Care Health Unit

•   WSJ: EV Startup Arrival Is Running Out of Charge

•   WSJ: How to Make the Robots Work for Your Portfolio

•   WSJ: The Slow Death of the Traditional Business Card

•   WSJ: Using Your Phone as a Hotel Key Is Great Until It Isn’t

•   NYT: Consumer Demand Has Been Key Driver of Inflation in the U.S.

※   FRBNY: How Much Did Supply Constraints Boost U.S. Inflation?

•   NYT: Growing Evidence Against a Republican Wave

•   NYT: Trump, Without the Presidency’s Protections, Struggles for a Strategy

•   NYT: Jill Biden Tests Positive for Coronavirus Again in ‘Rebound’ Case

•   NYT: Foes Agree on Nuclear Disaster Risk in Ukraine, but Little Else

•   NYT: Fearing energy shortages, Germany prioritizes fuel shipments on railways.

•   NYT: Can an Iconic Italian Wool Survive a Changing Economy?

•   NYT: California to Ban the Sale of New Gasoline Cars

•   NYT: Can Technology Help Cities Manage Curbs Better?

•   WP: Battle for Kyiv: Ukrainian valor, Russian blunders combined to save the capital

•   WP: How Russia’s invasion strengthened Ukrainian identity

•   WP: China’s summer heat wave is breaking all records

•   WP: America’s first homelessness problem: Knowing who is actually homeless

•   FT: Ukraine calls for permanent mission at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant

•   FT: Six months of war in Ukraine: ‘The enemy learned fast’

•   FT: Next Italian government must honour EU reform commitments, warns Draghi

•   FT: Can the Fed tame inflation without causing a recession?

•   FT: The NY Fed vs Larry Summers

•   FT: Japan turns back to nuclear power in post-Fukushima shift

•   FT: Apple’s return-to-office order sparks anxiety among tech workers

•   FT: Big power rifts and dwindling funds raise risks in ‘pandemic era’

•   BBC: Inflation: Who is benefiting from soaring prices?

•   Bloomberg: Lower-Income Shoppers in US Scale Back as Inflation Bites

•   Bloomberg: Don’t Fret Unduly on Inflation Expectations, Top Behavioral Economist Says

•   Bloomberg: Stiglitz Says Rate Hikes That Are Too Steep May Worsen Inflation

•   Bloomberg: European Governments Spend $278 Billion to Cushion Energy Crisis

•   Bloomberg: Even a Jumbo ECB Rate Hike Won’t Stop the Euro From Diving

•   Bloomberg: Once Unthinkable Ideas Gain Traction to Fight UK Energy Crisis

•   Bloomberg: Five Charts on UK Energy Crisis With Household Bills Set to Soar

•   Bloomberg: China Plans More Measures to Stabilize Economy as Recovery Slows

•   Bloomberg: BOJ’s Kuroda Would Hold Policy Even if Inflation Hits 3%, Survey Shows

•   Bloomberg: Bolsonaro’s Re-Election Hinges on Aid, Moderation, Says Pollster

•   Bloomberg: Traders Boost ECB, BOE Rate-Hike Bets as Energy Costs Surge

•   Bloomberg: Euro’s Slide Below Dollar Parity Brings Little Cheer to Business

•   Bloomberg: Russia Seen Floating Long-Term Oil Discounts Amid Price-Cap Push

•   Bloomberg: Russia LNG Plant Scraps Cargo to Asia Buyer on Payment Issue

•   Bloomberg: Russian Seaborne Coal Exports Effectively Halted by EU Ban

•   Bloomberg: US Petroleum Exports at All-Time High as Overseas Crises Deepen

•   Bloomberg: US Set to Ship Record Crude Into 2023 as Energy Crisis Deepens

•   Bloomberg: OPEC Nations Line Up Behind Saudi Call to Act If Necessary

•   Bloomberg: Iran Has Its Eye on Russia-Sized Hole in the European Oil Market

•   Bloomberg: China Probes Property Executives for Possible Law Violations

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s Utilities Seek Fresh Debt As Tough Winter Looms

•   Bloomberg: Tesla, Nio Suspend EV Charging Services as China Power Cuts Bite

•   Bloomberg: ESG Labeling Is in Focus With Regulations Looming

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: The Future of Shipping Is ... Sails?

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE German government sees problems with coal, oil supplies -document

•   Reuters: War hit to German economy will last years -economist

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE China regulator warns banks against yuan selling - sources

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE China tightens green bond rules to align them with global norms

•   Reuters: China exerting growing pressure on foreign companies, study finds

•   Reuters: Argentina mulls requesting IMF loan from resilience trust -source

•   Reuters: Salesforce cuts revenue forecast on forex hit, lower IT spending

•   Reuters: Analysis: Putin bets winter gas chokehold will yield Ukraine peace - on his terms

•   Reuters: Analysis: 'New shock' for European markets as gas price spike fuels inflation fears

•   CNBC: Nobel prize winner says the U.S. needs a 1950s-style productivity boom

•   CNBC: China needs to address slowing growth more aggressively, fund manager says

•   CNBC: Samsung’s new foldy phone is more versatile than my iPhone, but it’s not worth $1,800

•   SCMP: Xi Jinping looks to take China beyond Deng Xiaoping’s ‘get rich’ era with historic third term

•   SCMP: China hits back at Africa debt-trap claims with loan write-off offer

•   SCMP: Exclusive | South Korean firms in Hong Kong want ‘free and open’ business climate, as Seoul marks 30 years of ties with China

•   SCMP: US adds 7 Chinese aerospace and chip firms to export blacklist

•   Caixin: Global Mining Heavyweights See China Propping Up Iron Ore Demand

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan drops COVID test requirement, raises daily cap for entry

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan startup to mass-produce new parts that increase EV range

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Xi ditched milder options in sending missiles toward Japan

•   매경(P1): 2년새 4만명 사라졌다…귀한 몸 된 택시기사, 어쩌다

•   매경: "한달 수입 200만원, 이럴 바엔 택배할래"…핸들 놓는 택시기사들

•   매경: 강남에서 서울역까지 5만원…'따따블'에도 택시 안왔다

•   매경: 킥보드까지 거미줄 규제…한국만 역주행

•   매경(P1): 청년 구직교육 이수땐 300만원 지원

•   매경: 구직 포기 청년들, 삼성 직업교육 받으면 300만원 현금 받는다

•   매경: 文정부 5년 구직급여에 43조 쓰고도…재취업률 되레 줄어

•   매경(P1): 증시 부진에도 배당 20% 늘어

•   매경: 순이익 줄어도 배당 늘렸다…뿌리 내리는 주주환원

•   매경: 이럴거면 국회 왜 있나…기재위 野 불참, 과방위 與 보이콧

•   매경: 尹 "금융·외환위기 재발 않도록 철저히 점검"

•   매경: 한중 관계 3대 걸림돌은 '사드·공급망·북중관계'

•   매경: "한중 무역적자 당분간 지속…배터리 원자재 수입 2배로 증가"

•   매경: '3대 로봇도시' 키우는 美…보스턴서만 창업 10배 늘었다

•   매경: 테슬라·아마존 로봇 총력전…삼성도 도전장

•   매경: 규제개혁위 민간 위원장에 김종석 한국뉴욕주립대 교수

•   매경: [단독] LG이노텍, 테슬라서 카메라모듈 1조 따냈다

•   매경: 현대차, 반도체 자급 '잰걸음'…새싹기업 보스반도체에 투자

•   매경: 현장경영 보폭 넓히는 이재용

•   매경: 한화솔루션, 美에 태양광 수조원대 투자

•   매경: 미중갈등에…회계법인·로펌, 사업철수 자문 활황

•   매경: [Science in Biz] 선경직물서 하이닉스까지…SK의 담대한 수직계열화

•   한경(P1): "꿈같은 얘기"…尹 '속도전' 주문에도 꼬여가는 GTX

•   한경: GTX 호재로 뛴 동탄 아파트, 1년 새 4억 빠졌다…'비명'

•   한경: C·D도 착공시기 불투명한데…E·F노선 밀어붙이는 정부

•   한경: 中 2인자 리커창 "한·중 FTA 2단계 협상 속히 타결되길"

•   한경: 100억엔 코로나 손실에 휘청…'日 1위 노래방' 사업 분할로 기사회생

•   한경: 日기업, 사업재편 승인땐 부동산稅 80% 감면 받아

•   한경: 日 벤치마킹한 韓 기업활력법…지원범위 세 분야로 제약 '한계'

•   한경: 시멘트업계, 가격인상 논란 '반박'…"분양가에 미치는 영향 0.1% 불과"

•   한경: 건설업계, HUG 독점 '분양보증'에 또 반기

•   한경: 카페·식당 일회용품, 11월24일부터 금지

•   한경: 국가핵심기술, 71개 중 33개 털렸다

•   서경(P1): [단독]'금감원 삼바 감리' 직권남용 감사…의도적 '재벌 때리기' 집중 조사

•   서경: "反삼성 정서 이용하려 흘렸나"…의도적 '재벌 때리기' 집중 조사

•   서경: '기업가치 7조' 뻥튀기라더니…삼바 시총 59조

•   서경: 文 정부서 석연치 않았던 부실펀드 조사, 尹 정부 다시 들여다본다

•   서경(P1): 누적 수출 70兆 돌파 초읽기…글로벌 '방산 4强' 쏜다

•   서경: 무기 제조혁신·가성비·발빠른 AS…'방산 한류'로 中도 제쳤다

•   서경: 차세대 전투기·우주사업 기술 무장…'한국판 록히드마틴' 노린다

•   서경: '방산기술 국산화' 이뤘지만…R＆D·설비투자 문턱은 여전

•   서경: "돔구장+스타필드로 당신의 8시간 점유"…정용진의 꿈 현실로

•   서경: 韓 GDP 5배 늘때 中은 35배↑…500대 기업도 中이 8배

•   서경: [단독] 판 커진 '코인 환치기'…상반기만 1.5조 적발

•   서경: '이러다 하우스푸어 될라'…'영끌' 2030, 집 다시 판다

•   조선(P1): 尹 “직접 만나 협의 기대” 習 “전략적 소통 강화”

•   조선(P1): [NOW] 2030도 “베이비시터 할래요”

•   조선: “대주주들 상속세 부담에 주가 낮게 유지하려해… 1300만 개미까지 손해”

•   조선: “물가 위기… 대통령부터 월급 깎아 재정개혁 선도해야”

•   조선: IT 반도체가 안 팔리자… 차량용 공급 숨통 트였다

•   조선: [단독] 한국, 환경규제 강화했지만… 기술혁신 지원은 OECD 하위권

•   조선비즈: 强달러 폭주 언제까지?…高환율→高물가→高금리, 점점 더 꼬이는 복합위기

•   조선비즈: 文정부가 늘린 신재생에너지 의무… 한전 적자 더 는다

•   조선비즈: [단독] 국토부, ‘깡통전세 주의지역’ 지정 방침 철회…”전세가율 상세 통계만 공개”

•   조선비즈: 반년 새 서울 3배, 경기 1.5배… 늘어가는 ‘악성 미분양’

•   조선비즈: 넷플릭스-SKB ‘망 사용료 소송’…법정서 ‘무정산 합의’ 충돌

•   조선비즈: 세계국채지수 편입 노리는 정부…기재차관 “제도개선 적극 추진”

•   조선비즈: 대외硏 “한·중 무역 의존도, 비대칭성 심화…기존 경협 모델 한계”

•   조선비즈: 미래먹거리 車 전장서 맞붙은 LG·삼성… 성장세 탄 LG, 제동 걸린 삼성

•   조선비즈: 삼성 QD-OLED TV, 독일 IFA 안 간다?… 유럽이 최대 시장인데

•   인베스트조선: 이재용 부회장 복귀 앞둔 삼성그룹…전자 아닌 '후자' 향방에 주목하는 시선들

•   인베스트조선: "투자할 곳 없다" 기관들 한숨에 몰리는 '태조이방원'...테마주 한계 '명확'

•   인베스트조선: 문제는 유럽이야'...혹독할 겨울 앞두고 환율ㆍ금리에 멈춰선 증시

•   중앙: 배보다 배꼽 큰 배달앱…수수료 착한 ‘공공배달앱’ 뜬다

•   중앙: 원화값 10% 떨어지면 수입액 3.6% 느는데 수출 증가 0.03%뿐

•   중앙: “인력 그만 빼가”…조선4사, 현대중공업 공정위 제소한다

•   동아(P1): ‘수원 세모녀’ 같은 연락두절 1177명… ‘복지대상 아님’ 분류돼

•   동아: [단독]쌍용차 인수한다며 주가 띄워 ‘먹튀’… 설계자는 기업사냥꾼

•   문화(P1): 올 상반기, 월세가 전세보다 많아졌다

•   한국(P1): 전세금 1000억 가로챈 집주인... 정부, 전세사기 '동시진행' 정조준

•   한국: [단독] 현대차 "전기차 미국 생산 확대 논의하자" 노조에 제안...그러나 거절당했다

•   경향: 재생에너지는 세계적 흐름…‘정쟁’에 막히면 안 된다

•   머니투데이(P1): [단독] 금감원 과징금 여파, 증권사 '시장조성자' 안 한다

•   머니투데이: 정부 때문에 '시장 조성자' 했는데, '시장 교란자'라니…안 하는 게 낫다

•   머니투데이: [단독] 새 공정위원장 첫 숙제는 車…BMW·아우디 9월 심판대

•   머니투데이: [단독]연구직도 아닌데…文정부 5년간 출연연 2500명 정규직 전환

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 롯데, ‘몸값 3조’ 일진머티리얼즈 단독 인수 협상중

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 롯데케미칼, 일진 품으면 동박 세계4위로

•   헤럴드경제: “CSO로는 중처법 면책 어려워...CEO와 안전의무 분담해야”

•   헤럴드경제: “환율 1350원 이상, 코스피 2200까지 밀릴수도”

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 대출원금 줄여주고 금리 내리고... 취약차주 자체구제 나선 은행들

•   아시아경제: [배터리 탈중국]①공급망 새판짜기…"中 대신 어디로?"

•   아시아경제: [배터리 탈중국]②거세지는 '자원 보호주의'…자원국 국유화에 발목잡히나

•   아시아경제: [배터리 탈중국]③中, 광산 兆단위 '싹쓸이 쇼핑'…韓은 고환율 '겹악재'

•   디지털타임스(P1): 6兆 걸린 론스타 국제소송 31일 선고

•   이데일리: 자금조달 애먹는데…벤처, 벼랑 끝 몰려도 손내밀 곳 없다

•   이데일리: 벤처는 외면…돈 되는 대기업만 맡으려는 증권사들

•   이데일리: [단독]불법공매도 잡는다더니…거래소, 전담팀 확충 한 달 만에 난색

•   이데일리: [단독]토스뱅크 과다대출에 놀란 당국…시행세칙 개정 ‘만지작’

•   이데일리: 공포지수, 여전히 낮다…증권가 “추가 하락보단 박스권 기대”

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 10만9333명 확진…1주일 전보다 6만명 적어

•   전자신문(P1): 삼성D "8세대 IT용 OLED 투자"

•   전자신문(P1): LG전자, 첫 로봇 전문 판매채널 구축

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트] 세계 어디에도 없는 '시대착오적' 공정위 규제

•   전자신문: [단독] 전력거래소, '출력 제어' 명문화...재생에너지 직격탄 맞나

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Kemal Derviş): What Are the West’s Strategic Goals in the Ukraine War?

•   FT(Editorial Board): Viktor Orbán strengthens his crony state capitalism

•   FT(Derek Brower): Turn in global oil markets may be shortlived

•   FT(Yu Jie): China faces a new test of its economic statecraft

•   FT(Lex): Intel/Brookfield: infrastructure finance is absolutely fab

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Europe Heads for Stagflation

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Student Loan Forgiveness Is an Inflation Expansion Act

•   WSJ(Michael S. Derby): Economists See Powell Quashing Hopes for Rate Cuts Over Long Term

•   WSJ(Paul Roderick Gregory, Ramanan Krishnamoorti): Russia’s Gas Threat Is a Bluff

•   NYT(Debasish Roy Chowdhury): Modi’s India Is Where Global Democracy Dies

•   WP(Editorial Board): Ukraine has survived half a year, but the war is probably not half over

•   WP(David Ignatius): Beware the emerging alliance between Russia and Iran

•   WP(Perry Bacon Jr.): Biden’s policies have been good. But they are nowhere near enough.

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): China’s Coal Shortage Is About Cash: Elements by David Fickling

•   Bloomberg(Allison Schrager): Gen Z Is 'Quiet Quitting' at Work, But They Won't Find Meaning in a Job

•   Bloomberg(Karl W. Smith): US Inflation: Fed's Powell Is Fighting It — and Winning

•   Bloomberg(Leonid Bershidsky): Why Russian Nationalists Are a Big Target for Both Sides

•   Bloomberg(Bobby Ghosh): Biden Shouldn’t Ignore Republicans on Iran Nuclear Deal

•   Bloomberg(Andrea Felsted): Peak Inflation? Middle-Class Shoppers Are Feeling Pinched by Higher Prices Too

•   Bloomberg(Gearoid Reidy): Can Japan Learn to Love Nuclear Power Again?