Global Economic Monitor 220819

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall St ends higher, Cisco Systems jumps after forecast

※   Investors still assessing Wednesday's Fed minutes

※   Kohl's slashes 2022 forecasts

※   Indexes: Dow up 0.1%, S&P 500 up 0.2%, Nasdaq up 0.2%

•   Natural gas: European Gas Rallies to Record as Energy Crisis Pounds Region

•   Metals: Copper rises on hopes for improved Chinese demand

•   Grains: Wheat falls on weak U.S. demand, Ukraine grain shipments

•   한국: 연준 긴축의지 재확인…코스피 이틀째 하락·환율 10원넘게 상승

•   한국: 270만호 공급에도…건설株 하락

[Indicators]

•   US Jul. Existing home sales: U.S. Home Sales Dropped in July for Sixth Straight Month

•   US Aug. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing Index: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly rises in August

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: Worker Filings for Jobless Claims Held Nearly Steady Last Week

•   Chile Q2 GDP: Chile Economy on Brink of Recession Amid Rampant Inflation

•   Turkey Benchmark rate: Turkey’s Central Bank Cuts Rates in Surprise Decision

•   Philippines Benchmark rate: Philippines Central Bank Raises Policy Rate to Help Curb Inflation

•   한국 2분기 가계동향: 손실보전금에 가계소득 12.7% 늘었지만…소비 지출 증가는 '찔끔'

•   한국 2분기 국제투자대조표: 외환보유액 대비 단기외채 비율 42%…10년래 최고

•   한국 6월 재정수지: 세수 호황에도…상반기 재정적자 100조

•   한국 8월 주택사업경기전망지수: 주택사업전망지수 4개월째↓… “침체 장기화 우려”

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): 버티던 서초구 집값도 꺾였다

[News]

•   WSJ: Judge Says He Will Unseal Parts of Affidavit That Led to Search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago

※   Justice Department has a week to propose which portions of document should remain secret

•   WSJ: Fed’s Bullard Leans Toward Favoring 0.75-Percentage-Point September Rate Rise

•   WSJ: U.S., Taiwan to Begin Formal Talks for Trade, Investment Pact This Fall

※   The announcement comes amid tension between the U.S. and China over Taiwan

•   WSJ: Wagner Mercenaries Enter the Spotlight as Russian Troops Struggle in Ukraine

•   WSJ: Ukraine Presses U.N. Over ‘Nuclear Blackmail’ at Russian-Occupied Plant

•   WSJ: Americans Spent More Time Streaming Than Watching Cable TV in July—a First

•   WSJ: Oil Giants Must Face Climate-Liability Suits in States, Appeals Court Rules

•   WSJ: Wall Street Bets the Fed Is Bluffing in High-Stakes Inflation Game

•   WSJ: Toyota Executive Warns EVs Face Obstacles to Wider Adoption

•   WSJ: Renesas Will Drive Around the Chip Downturn

•   WSJ: Browser Startups Take Aim at Google Chrome, Apple Safari

•   WSJ: Climate Bill May Not Be Enough for Low-Carbon Jet Fuel to Take Off

•   WSJ: Wait, When Did Everyone Start Using Apple Pay?

•   NYT: It Was the Housing Crisis Epicenter. Now the Sun Belt Is an Inflation Vanguard.

•   NYT: Europe’s Scorching Summer Puts Unexpected Strain on Energy Supply

•   NYT: Why Buying an Electric Car Just Became More Complicated

•   NYT: Can Tesla Data Help Us Understand Car Crashes?

•   WP: Biden’s bogus boast of 1 million ‘construction jobs’

•   WP: Why Crimea is so important in the Russia-Ukraine war

•   FT: Odesa struggles back to life after lifting of Russia’s port blockade

•   FT: Erdoğan backs peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow

•   FT: Germany to slash VAT on gas sales to cushion price shock

•   FT: China boosts coal usage as extreme heat triggers power shortages

•   FT: Companies burnt through a record amount of cash in Q2

•   FT: China’s largest property group Country Garden warns of 70% plunge in profit

•   Bloomberg: ‘ESG’ Stripped From 23% of EU Sustainable Funds in Fresh Review

•   Bloomberg: Summers Says China-Surpassing-US Is Japan 1990 All Over Again

•   Bloomberg: Summers Says MMT Backers Should Look at Erdogan’s Turkey Woes

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Daly Pushes Back Against Bets on Rate Cuts Next Year

•   Bloomberg: It’s Not About the Data—It’s Really About the Fed

•   Bloomberg: Rhine Crisis Shows Signs of Respite as Water Set to Rise

•   Bloomberg: Xi Starts March to Third Term in China Facing Problems at Home and Abroad

•   Bloomberg: Xi Highlights Drought Risk in China as Power Supplies Threatened

•   Bloomberg: Tesla Asks Chinese Government to Help Secure Power to Suppliers

•   Bloomberg: China Plans More Fiscal Stimulus as Economy Outlook Darkens

•   Bloomberg: China’s Banks Set to Cut Key Rates Amid Covid, Property Slumps

•   Bloomberg: China Attacks US Chip Handouts While Warning of Market Slowdown

•   Bloomberg: China Covid Cases at a Three-Month High as Even Fish Get Tests

•   Bloomberg: Japan’s Inflation Getting Harder for Kuroda to Explain Away

•   Bloomberg: India’s Reserve Bank Says Policy Oriented Toward Cooling Prices

•   Bloomberg: India Bars Some States From Power Exchanges as Unpaid Bills Rise

•   Bloomberg: BOE Seen Leapfrogging Fed With Higher Rates as Inflation Surges

•   Bloomberg: Retailers Suffer From Inventory Bloat as US Consumers End Two-Year Spree

•   Bloomberg: Layoffs Are Planned at Half of All Companies, PwC Survey Shows

•   Bloomberg: Qualcomm Is Plotting a Return to Server Market With New Chip

•   Bloomberg: Applied Materials Gives Bullish Forecast in Face of Slowdown

•   Bloomberg: Another Coal Plant Wins Lifeline Despite Biden’s Green Push

•   Bloomberg: One of Europe’s Hottest Cities Is Using 1,000-Year-Old Technology to Combat Climate Change

•   Reuters: Fed's George says pace, endpoint of rate hikes still matter of debate

•   Reuters: Fed must get inflation down urgently, Kashkari says

•   Reuters: One more grain ship leaves Ukraine, Turkey's defence ministry says

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Crisis-hit Sri Lanka to ask Japan to open talks with main creditors, says Wickremesinghe

•   Reuters: OPEC chief says blame policymakers, lawmakers for oil price rises

•   Reuters: Indonesia May Impose Nickel Export Tax This Year, President Jokowi Says

•   Reuters: Musk targets ad tech firms in Twitter suit over takeover deal

•   Reuters: Analysis: Years of political crises in Peru are finally hitting its economy

•   Reuters: Analysis: Confident Algeria rides gas high

•   CNBC: Russia warns radioactive waste could hit Germany if accident occurs at damaged nuclear power plant

•   CNBC: Germany has worked hard to shore up winter gas supplies — and it’s ahead of schedule

•   CNBC: U.S.-China tensions are not helping Biden in inflation fight, economist says

•   CNBC: Goldman Sachs and Nomura both cut China’s GDP outlook, again

•   CNBC: A renewed Iran nuclear deal appears closer than ever. Here are the final sticking points

•   MarketWatch: Why one economist fears the Japanese yen could be headed for a destabilizing downward spiral

•   Fox Business: Real estate prices ‘cooling,’ but ‘not a fire sale’: Expert

•   Fox Business: Oil inventories lowest since ’85 bad omen for winter

•   Fox Business: Economics professor rips Biden admin denying recession: 'Just accept it'

•   SCMP: China beats US in most-cited science papers, moving to top of new rankings: report

•   SCMP: Tech war: China’s chip veterans predict huge challenges as US ratchets up tech restrictions

•   SCMP: China-Russia soybean trade takes centre stage at annual industry gathering near border

•   Caixin: Southwest China Power Cuts Spread to Households as Analysts Warn of Economic Impact

•   Nikkei Asia: Russia's war leaves Europe with China rail route dilemma

•   Nikkei Asia: ADB to discuss ending new loans to China: President Asakawa

•   Nikkei Asia: Tighter monetary conditions rein in Asian unicorns

•   Economic Times: Manufacturing sector to be impacted in FY23 as exports take a hit, says Ind-Ra report

•   Economic Times: An ageing workforce could become India Inc's achilles heel

•   매경(P1): [단독] 로봇 힘쏟는 현대차…美에 투자사 만든다

•   매경: 더 이상 추격자 전략은 없다…로봇산업 치고나가는 정의선

•   매경: 176cm에 56kg…테슬라 다음달 '인간 로봇' 첫 공개한다는데

•   매경(P1): [단독] "쌓인 빚 얼만데"…한전 난방공사 억대 연봉자, 5년새 2배 '쑥'

•   매경: 경영난 심각한데, 직원 5명중 1명은 억대 연봉…공기업 어디길래?

•   매경(P1): [단독] 이영 중기장관 "내수용 아닌 세계적 K유니콘 발굴"

•   매경: "우유 남는다는데 가격 또 올려?"…폴란드 반값우유 박스째 산다

•   매경: 정부 "소비자 수요 반영한 가격제도 시급"

•   매경: 생산비 연동한 우윳값, 10년째 '묻지마인상' 주범

•   한경(P1): "반도체도 0.5년 남았다"…中에 뒤처진 한국 '충격 결과'

•   한경: 주력사업 격돌·소재는 절대의존…'30년 對中흑자' 이제 흑역사 쓸 판

•   한경: "핵심 소재 수입처 다변화 시급하다"

•   한경: 교역액 47배 증가…中의 한국 투자액 1788배 폭증

•   한경: 文정부 5년 '脫원전' 여파에…원자력 기술격차 3년→1년으로

•   한경: 세계시장 곳곳서 韓·中 '수출 전쟁' 치열

•   한경(P1): 제품이 안 팔린다…넘치는 재고에 삼성·LG '초비상'

•   한경: 2분기 최대 실적 찍었지만 겹겹 악재…3분기엔 꺾이나

•   한경: 한수원 신임 사장에 황주호 내정

•   한경: SK, 美 에너지사 아톰파워 2000억에 인수

•   한경: "30년 전에 멈춰 있는 공무원들 답답"…황당한 시대착오 규제

•   한경: 주택 시장은 침체 빠졌는데…상가 매매가는 '역대 최고'

•   서경(P1): 美日 '첨단산업법' 일사천리…韓은 정쟁에 하세월

•   서경: 기업지원法 12개 발의됐지만 상임위 통과 0…"국회가 희망고문"

•   서경(P1): 공기업·준정부기관 130 → 88개로 줄인다

•   서경: 예타 문턱 낮추되 재무 평가 깐깐하게…자율성 높이고 책임경영 강화

•   서경(P1): [단독] 한전, 사우디서 6억弗 수주…열병합발전소 우선협상자에

•   서경: '적자늪' 빠진 한전에 단비…빈살만 방한 맞춰 원전 수주도 탄력

•   서경: 교섭책임 놓고 원·하청 갈등 반복…"공동이익 위한 협의체 시급"

•   서경: "임금체계 개편·설계 때 공정성 담보여부가 관건"

•   서경: 청년 없고 중년·외국인만…조선업 근로자 평균연령 50세 육박

•   서경: [코스피 상반기 실적] 영업익 107조 '최고' 찍었지만…삼성전자 실적 덜어내니 8% 뚝

•   서경: [코스닥 상반기 실적] 131조 역대급 매출에도…적자기업 35%로 쑥

•   조선(P1): 못믿을 공모가… 작년 상장 89곳중 58곳 마이너스 수익률

•   조선: 올해 IPO 시장은 찬바람… 현대오일뱅크·SSG닷컴 등 줄줄이 상장 미뤄

•   조선: ‘大魚’에 물린 개미들… 크래프톤 -48%, 카뱅 -20%

•   조선: 전기차·배터리 업계, 서로 “차 팔아도 남는 게 없다”

•   조선: 잘 나가던 ‘식물성 고기’… 값 비싸지고 인기까지 시들 ‘성장 0%’

•   조선: [WEEKLY BIZ] “인플레, 짧아도 6~12개월은 이어져… 소비재 시장 격변 일으킬 것”

•   조선비즈: [인터뷰] 진대제 “1000억달러 반도체 패키징 시장 잡아야 산다…10년來 후공정 시대 열려”

•   조선비즈: K-반도체, 후공정 첨단시설 키워야 반도체 초강대국 실현

•   인베스트조선: 부도 내도 B등급 유지?...자취 감춘 부실기업, 내년에 뇌관 터질까

•   동아(P1): 클릭 한번에 총알배송… ‘클릭코노미’에 빠진 新소비자

•   동아(P1): [단독]박진 “北 핵실험땐 한국정부 독자제재 할것”

•   동아: “둘이서 팝콘 먹으며 영화보면 4만원 훌쩍… 극장 가기 겁나요”

•   문화: 이달 회사채 발행 ‘반토막’… 돈 줄 마른 기업, 고금리 대출 ‘불사’

•   문화: “공급망 위기 대비 소부장특별법 年內 개정”

•   국민(P1): “국가채무비율 60% 초과 땐 재정적자 20조가량 감축”

•   서울: 수소 찾아 ‘수소문 3만리’… 정부·지자체 오판에 수소차 충전 대란

•   세계(P1): “美 ‘기술’·中 ‘시장’ 잡기 양면전략 필요”

•   한겨레(P1): 침묵·소송·해고… 하이트진로가 믿는 구석 ‘하청 노조니까’

•   머니투데이(P1): '중국 견제한다'는 미국에 내쫓긴 한·일·독...EV보조금, 80%가 미국車

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 시너지 더딘 ‘하만’… 삼성전자의 고민

•   아시아경제(P1): 카카오, 카카오모빌리티 매각 안한다

•   디지털타임스: 현대차 반도체난 해법은 `삼성맨` 태운 덕

•   이데일리: ‘대형마트 치킨은 왜 쌀까’…치킨값의 비밀

•   이데일리: [단독]부동산PF가 멈췄다...1년여만에 215% 늘린 캐피탈사 비상

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 13만3777명 확진, 어제보다 3만6천여명↓

•   연합: 비용부담 커진 기업들…삼성전자 원재료비 25%↑·인건비 14%↑

•   전자신문(P1): [단독]금융위 전금법 개정 '카톡 송금하기' 못한다

•   전자신문(P1): 갤럭시S23에 '2억' 화소 카메라 탑재

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Anne O. Krueger): American CHIPS Off the Chinese Block

•   Project Syndicate(Chris Patten): Brexit Britain Confronts Reality

•   Project Syndicate(Anthea Roberts, Jensen Sass ): The New Resilience Paradigm

•   FT(Megan Greene): Europe must use all its financial firepower to fund the green transition

•   FT(David Sheppard): It’s time for Europe to ask Norway to cut the price of gas

•   FT(John Burn-Murdoch): The energy bills emergency has barely begun

•   WSJ(Elbridge A. Colby, Alexander B. Gray): America’s Industrial Base Isn’t Ready for War With China

•   NYT(Oleg Kashin): Who Will Get Rid of Putin? The Answer Is Grim.

•   Bloomberg(Bill Dudley): Fed Chair Powell Will Face a Tough Audience in Jackson Hole

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): The Summer of Our Discontent: Elements by David Fickling

•   Bloomberg(Conor Sen): The End of the Retail Recession Is Good — or Maybe Bad

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Two Nations Divided by an Uncommon Inflation

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): Vietnam Is Growing at 7%. Hanoi Can Do a Lot Better.

•   Bloomberg(Tim Culpan): You Thought China’s Tech Slowdown Was Bad

•   Fox News(Chuck DeVore): Electric vehicle subsidies take cash from ordinary Americans to benefit the rich