Global Economic Monitor 220804

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street rallies on economic data, crude falls as stockpiles jump

•   US: Swaps Show 1-in-2 Odds of 75-Basis-Point Fed Hike in September

•   Gasoline: Gas Prices Have Fallen for 50 Straight Days, Approach $4 a Gallon

•   Natural gas: US Natural Gas Surges With LNG Terminal Poised for Fast Restart

•   Natural gas: European Gas Prices Ease With Inventories and Demand in Focus

•   Metals: Copper drops on China tensions, prospect of more interest rate hikes

•   Grains: U.S. wheat futures hit six-month low, soy weak, corn ends firm

•   한국: 코스피, 외인 매수에 0.89% 상승…2,460대 안착

•   한국: “인플레 정점 찍었다”… 역전됐던 장단기 금리 ‘정상화’

[Indicators]

•   US Jun. Factory orders: U.S. factory orders rise solidly in June, beat expectations

•   US Jul. Services PMI(ISM): US Services Gauge Unexpectedly Climbs to a Three-Month High

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications(MBA): Mortgage applications inch up for the first time in five weeks

•   US Weekly Oil Inventories(EIA): U.S. crude, gasoline stockpiles rise unexpectedly - EIA

•   Eurozone Jun. Retail sales: Eurozone retail sales fell in June due to higher prices

•   Germany Jun. Balance of trade: German exports surge to record level in June, outlook still gloomy

•   China Jul. Housing prices: Chinese Housing Prices Slide Again in July

•   China Jul. Services PMI(Caixin): China July services activity expands at quickest pace in 15 months - Caixin PMI

•   India Jul. Services PMI: India Services Activity Softens Amid Inflationary Pressures

•   Brazil Benchmark rate: Brazil Lifts Rates by Half a Point to 13.75%, Flags Another Hike Possible

•   Saudi Arabia, UAE Jul. PMI: Saudi, UAE Business Conditions Improve as Inflation Cools

•   Turkey Jul. CPI: Turkish Inflation Approached 80% in July and Has Yet to Peak

•   한국 2분기 국민고통지수: 치솟는 물가에… 2분기 국민고통지수 ‘사상 최고치’

[News]

•   WSJ: As Pelosi Leaves Taiwan, China’s Military Looms Larger

※   Drills spurred by visit could intrude into island’s claimed territorial waters, signal Beijing’s ability to blockade

•   WSJ: Pelosi Vows ‘Ironclad’ Defense of Taiwan’s Democracy, as China Plans Live-Fire Drills

•   WSJ: Pelosi Trip Delays Tesla Supplier CATL’s North America Plant Announcement

•   WSJ: Ukraine Braces for Brutal Fight for Occupied Southern Regions as Referendum Looms

•   WSJ: Russia Claims Capture of Donbas Position Long Held by Ukrainian Forces

•   WSJ: Russian Oil Cap Push Faces Doubts From Energy, Finance Industry

•   WSJ: OPEC, Allies Agree to Modest Increase in Oil Production

※   Alliance to raise output by 100,000 barrels a day in September, following calls by the U.S., other major consumers for more supply

※   OPEC: 31st OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting

•   WSJ: Cost of Democrats’ Corporate-Tax Increase Skews to Wealthy, Reaches Middle Class

•   WSJ: U.S. Senate Ratifies Adding Finland and Sweden to NATO

•   WSJ: Kansas Vote Signals Abortion Could Emerge as Top Political Issue in November

•   WSJ: Iran Nuclear Negotiators to Meet in Last-Ditch Effort to Revive Deal

※   After 16 months of talks, U.S., EU and Iranian officials to convene in Vienna, but expectations of a pact aren't high

•   WSJ: Russia Reaffirms Support for Myanmar’s Junta After Execution of Activists

•   WSJ: Chinese Investors Still Leery of U.S. Acquisitions After Oversight Changes

•   WSJ: Walmart Lays Off Hundreds of Corporate Workers

•   WSJ: Companies Weigh Fresh Cuts as Operating Costs Go Up

•   WSJ: Why Are Businesses Still Hiring as Recession Risks Mount?

•   WSJ: What Twitter’s Subpoenas to Elon Musk’s Inner Circle Could Yield

•   WSJ: Netflix Is Scrambling to Learn the Ad Business It Long Disdained

•   WSJ: Big Tech Is the West’s Surprise Weapon in Competition With Russia, China

•   WSJ: Ford’s U.S. Sales Climbed 37% in July From Prior Year’s Slump

•   WSJ: EV Maker Lucid Cuts Production Outlook in Half

•   NYT: ‘This is America’s fight’: Europe largely stays out of the fray on Pelosi’s trip.

•   NYT: Taiwan and Ukraine: Two crises, 5,000 miles apart, are linked in complex ways.

•   NYT: Congress Is Giving Billions to the Chip Industry. Strings Are Attached.

•   NYT: Sri Lanka Targets Organizers of Protests That Toppled President

•   NYT: A ‘Reversible’ Form of Death? Scientists Revive Cells in Dead Pigs’ Organs.

•   WP: Today’s economic data compared with recessions over the past 50 years

•   WP: Why so many Tunisians voted away the democracy won in the Arab Spring

•   FT: Gazprom blames sanctions on key turbine for limiting gas flow to Europe

•   FT: German gas shortage risks ‘unforeseeable consequences’, says Commerzbank

•   FT: IMF urges Europe to pass on energy costs to consumers

•   FT: Truss to look at changing Bank of England mandate on inflation

•   FT: UK risks deepening recession, warns think-tank

•   FT: A jobs data rumble

•   FT: Waiting for Superbond

•   FT: Nissan plans rental push for electric vehicles to keep precious metals in Japan

•   FT: BMW warns of slowing sales as inflation and rate rises bite

•   FT: SoftBank raises $22bn in moves to sell down Alibaba stake

•   Bloomberg: China Hits Taiwan With Trade Curbs Amid Tensions Over Pelosi

•   Bloomberg: Here Are All the Ways China’s Hitting Back Against Pelosi’s Trip

•   Bloomberg: Bullard Says Fed Can Slow Inflation Without Sparking Recession

•   Bloomberg: Fed Leaders Pledge Tough Fight to Keep Inflation Credibility

•   Bloomberg: Manchin-Schumer Bill Gets Budget-Office Nod for $102 Billion Deficit Cut

•   Bloomberg: Germany Rules Out Covid Lockdowns, School Closures This Winter

•   Bloomberg: China’s Covid Zero Could Last for Years Because It Works for Xi

•   Bloomberg: Argentina Hyperinflation Fears Overblown, Debt Adviser Marx Says

•   Bloomberg: Argentina’s New Economy Chief to Lay Out Fresh Strategy

•   Bloomberg: Bolsonaro Is Luring Evangelicals to Reduce Lula’s Lead in Brazil

•   Bloomberg: Brazil Relief Measures to Fan Inflation, Ex-Central Banker Says

•   Bloomberg: Bangladesh Is Seeking $2 Billion From World Bank, ADB, Sources Say

•   Bloomberg: Strategists Fear Pelosi Trip to Have Deeper Global-Market Impact

•   Bloomberg: Asia Central Banks Deploy FX Reserves in Fighting Currency Bears

•   Bloomberg: Russia Orders New Sakhalin-2 Operator to Be Set Up in Far East

•   Bloomberg: Russia Finds a New Route to Oil Market Via a Tiny Egyptian Port

•   Bloomberg: World’s Food Supply Faces New Threat as India Rice Crop Falters

•   Bloomberg: Taiwan Turmoil Prompts Detours, Delays for Global Shipping

•   Bloomberg: Maersk CEO Says US Economy Will Outperform Europe on Consumption

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: South Asia Debt Woes Evoke Fears of Another 1997-Style Crisis

•   Reuters: Russian ceasefire and troop pullout must precede any talks, says Ukraine

•   Reuters: Midterms: Takeaways from Tuesday's U.S. primary elections

•   Reuters: Biden to sign bill to boost chipmakers, compete with China Aug. 9 -White House

•   Reuters: As U.S. eyes new China chip curbs, turmoil looms for global market

•   Reuters: White house says Biden focus is on keeping oil prices down after OPEC+ output increase

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Germany's gas levy cannot be implemented as planned, say sources

•   Reuters: U.N. chief urges tax on 'grotesque greed' of oil, gas companies

•   Reuters: Chip makers have a message for car makers: Your turn to pay

•   Reuters: Analysis: Wall Street's 'fear gauge' in limbo as big investors keep shunning stocks

•   Reuters: Analysis: Some investors doubt summer surge in corporate bonds will last

•   Reuters: Analysis: Pelosi's Taiwan visit clouds Boeing's China reset hopes

•   Reuters: Analysis: As wheat prices soar, the world's consumers vote with their feet

•   CNN: CDC expected to ease Covid-19 recommendations, including for schools, as soon as this week

•   CNBC: These charts show why we may not be in a recession

•   CNBC: Nuclear power is on the brink of a $1 trillion resurgence, but one accident anywhere would stop that momentum

•   CNBC: The confusing job market: Tech and finance brace for the worst, retail is mixed, travel can’t hire fast enough

•   CNBC: The Fed is fighting inflation. So is remote work

•   MarketWatch: Why the U.S. stock rally is starting to a look like a new bull market, according to these analysts

•   MarketWatch: Why Mark Mobius thinks U.S. stocks haven't bottomed --- and where he sees emerging-market opportunities

•   CBS: China now has the most companies on the Fortune 500 list

•   SCMP: US panel on China policy expresses scepticism about Beijing’s coronavirus, economic data

•   SCMP: Why China’s zero-Covid policy and US recession risks are clouding South Korea’s economic outlook

•   SCMP: China’s economic sanctions on Taiwan over Pelosi visit ‘symbolic’, but could hit billions if tensions escalate

•   Nikkei Asia: After CHIPS Act, Japanese supplier to triple U.S. semiconductor chemical output

•   Nikkei Asia: China smartphone shipments slump toward 10-year low

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Pelosi's Taiwan visit is Xi's final exam to stay top leader

•   매경(P1): '광폭 행보' 펠로시, 판문점 간다

•   매경: 펠로시, TSMC회장 만나 칩4 논의…한국 '선택의 시간' 조여온다

•   매경: 펠로시 방한 일정은…김진표와 안보 논의, 휴가중 尹은 안만나

•   매경: "기술패권시대, 파운드리 보유국은 핵무기 가진 것"

•   매경(P1): 거래 끊긴 아파트, 더 안팔리겠네…분양가 줄인상 예고

•   매경(P1): 정부는 한계 대출자 많다는데…햇살론 대출액은 최고 30% 줄어

•   매경(P1): [단독] 일손 부족에…정부, 외국인 비자족쇄 푼다

•   매경: [단독] 文 '신남방' 대신 尹 '아세안 정책'

•   매경: 국책연구원마저 폐지 권고…"중기적합업종 실효성 없다"

•   매경: 월급 오르면 대출이자 깎아준다더니…은행, 10명중 7명 거절

•   매경: 두산에너빌리티, 8400억 규모 해수담수화플랜트 사우디서 수주

•   매경: 반도체 이르면 9월 '국가첨단전략기술'로 지정

•   매경: 20대 그룹 시가총액 올들어 168조 증발했지만…LG·현대重·한화·KT·에쓰오일은 늘었다

•   한경(P1): 노동이사제 결국 강행…"권한 더 달라"는 勞

•   한경: 여름 성수기 타격 노렸나…화물연대, 이번엔 맥주공장 막았다

•   한경(P1): 국민은행 노조 '임피 무효' 소송

•   한경(P1): [단독] 독일發 불량 반도체 '쇼크'…또 발목 잡힌 아이오닉5

•   한경: 집값 10%만 보증금으로 내면…10년 살면서 리츠로 내집 마련

•   한경: 사업재편 추진 기업에…1조원 규모 금융 지원

•   한경: 5일 '우주여정' 떠나는 다누리…5개월간 10번 고비 넘겨야 달 도착

•   서경(P1): 2027년 R&D 예산 40조로 늘어나는데…성과 활용은 뒷걸음

•   서경: 수요조사 없이 개발 지원…기술 10건 중 9건은 시장 진출도 못해

•   서경: [팍스테크니카 인재에 달렸다] 영업맨도 AI 전문가 '환골탈태'…전공 상관없이 개발자 '자급자족'

•   서경: [팍스테크니카 인재에 달렸다] 월 80만원이면 SW 고급두뇌 확보…동남아 인재 모시기 나선 기업들

•   서경: 상반기 서울 주택 거래 10채 중 7채 '소형'

•   서경: 지방 '덩어리 규제' 풀어 기업 이전 촉진

•   조선: 박사 딴 외국인 62% 짐싸…”기업·학교가 적응 도와야”

•   조선: 전문가들 “인구 비상사태… 이민자·난민 적극 수용한 독일서 배워야”

•   조선: 年4%대 발행어음에 이틀간 2000억 몰려

•   조선: 공매도 대책 번지수 틀렸다? 개미들 불만 고조

•   조선: 식당 가기 겁나네…8대 외식품목 싹 다 올랐다

•   조선비즈: 삼성전자, 차기 폴더블폰에 中 OLED 채용 검토…공급망 다원화로 원가절감 노려

•   조선비즈: 텅텅 빈 김포~하네다 노선… 비싼 가격·PCR 검사가 발목

•   조선비즈: ‘고환율·자재값’이 무섭다… 평일 낮에도 파리 날리는 문래동 철공소 골목

•   인베스트조선: 지분매각, 흡수합병, 임원겸임 해소…카카오, 계열사 축소로 국감 대비

•   인베스트조선: 금리 상승세 둔화한 채권시장…엇갈린 경기침체 전망에 투자가격 결정도 고심

•   인베스트조선: 지주사 전환까지 시간 벌기 나선 한화그룹

•   중앙(P1): 금리 오른 3년간 4대은행 임원들은 1083억 성과급

•   동아(P1): ‘웹디자인’ 요가 강사, 와인바 차린 회사원… 2030세대 ‘N잡’ 확산

•   문화(P1): 폭염 · 폭우 무한반복 9월까지 ‘이상한 날씨’

•   문화: “3분기 곡물 수입단가 15.9% 더 오른다”

•   문화: 對중동 무역적자 100억 달러 첫 기록…전체 무역적자 2.2배

•   한국(P1): 과학방역서 "이젠 표적방역 추진"… 흔들리는 방역 메시지

•   한국(P1): 농사용 끌어 살림살이, 산업용 쪼개기로 펑펑...전기가 줄줄 샌다[에너지도 다이어트!]

•   한국: 추석 차례상 '악' 소리 난다... 무·배추·양파 가격 치솟아

•   서울(P1): 중대재해법 손질 10월까지 로드맵

•   한겨레(P1): 금리 여파…집값 2년 뒤 6~7% 떨어질 가능성

※   한국은행: 주택시장 리스크 평가

•   경향(P1): 연금제도가 빈약한 한국, 공공일자리는 복지다[세상을 바꾸는 노인일자리]

•   머니투데이(P1): "업계 유일한 흑자"…이 한파에 '상장' 직진 선포한 쏘카의 패기

•   머니투데이(P1): 대우조선 8천억 손배소?...이정식 고용장관 "행동엔 책임져야"

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 與 "세종의사당·대통령집무실 반드시 짓는다"

•   파이낸셜뉴스: LNG선 이어 뜨는 메탄올 추진선… 韓中 수주 경쟁 뜨겁다

•   아시아경제(P1): 내년 재정 허리띠 바짝 죈다…예산 640조원대 전망

•   아시아경제: "플라스틱 면허증 주세요" 못쓰는 모바일 운전면허증

•   아시아경제: 금리 한파에 크레딧 시장 꽁꽁

•   이데일리(P1): 위기를 기회로…기업들, '돈 되는' 미래사업에 역량 집중한다

•   이데일리: SK 'BBC'·삼성 '파운드리'·한화 '우주'…생존전략 다시 짜는 기업

•   이데일리: 합치거나 쪼개거나…사업 재편으로 활로 모색하는 유통가

•   이데일리: 스마트폰 버린 LG, 전장으로…인프라코어 버린 두산, 반도체로

•   이데일리(P1): "글로벌 인플레이션 올 하반기 정점…2024년말 코로나 이전 수준 회복"

•   이데일리: 올 하반기 철강업계 실적 ‘먹구름’…中 경기부양책 변수 될까

•   연합: 오후 9시 10만4490명 확진…어제보다 1만821명 줄어

•   연합: 우울한 메모리 전망…"내년 D램 수요 증가율, 역대 최저 수준"

※   TrendForce: 【Market View】Historically Low 2023 DRAM Demand Bit Growth at Only 8.3%, NAND Flash Expected to Drive Installed Capacity Growth Due to Falling Prices, Says TrendForce

•   더구루: [단독] 삼성·SK·롯데·GS, 말레이 페트로나스와 탄소포집 동맹 구축

•   전자신문(P1): '30GB대' 5G 중간요금제 내놓는다

•   전자신문: 삼성 TV 비밀병기 '라이브 채팅' 서비스 개시

•   전자신문: 빚도 자산 '옛말'…높아진 금리, 빚부터 갚는다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Nafeez Ahmed): Ending the Age of Scarcity

•   Project Syndicate(Slavoj Žižek): What the “Woke” Left and the Alt-Right Share

•   Project Syndicate(Joseph S. Nye, Jr.): America’s China Challenge

•   Project Syndicate(Zhang Jun): Why Might China Avoid Strong Inflation?

•   FT(Editorial Board): Bank of England risks falling behind the curve

•   FT(Murtaza Syed): Now is not the time to neglect developing economies

•   FT(Chloe Cornish): Ever more erratic monsoons take their toll in India

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Schumer-Manchin Double Tax

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): After Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit

•   WSJ(Daniel Yergin, Michael Stoppard): Winter in Europe May Be Springtime for Putin

•   WSJ(Karl Rove): Manchin’s Deal Won’t Save the Democrats in the Midterms

•   WSJ(Zalmay Khalilzad): The West Needs to Call Russia’s Bluff on Peace in Ukraine

•   WSJ(Merrie Spaeth): Try Not to Think of a Recession

•   WSJ(David Asher, Thomas J. Duesterberg): Xi Tries to Ride a Real-Estate Tiger, and We All May Get Mauled

•   WSJ(Rob Portman): Schumer-Manchin Throws the Book Tax at U.S. Companies

•   NYT(Thomas B. Edsall): Trump Has Big Plans for 2025, and He Doesn’t Care Whether You Think He’ll Win

•   NYT(Bob Menendez): This Is How the U.S. Will Stand With Taiwan

•   WP(Marc A. Thiessen): Pelosi was right to visit Taiwan

•   WP(David Byler): Trump is losing ground in the 2024 primary. Here’s why.

•   Bloomberg(Conor Sen): ‘Jobful Vibecession’ Will Keep Workers on the Payroll

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Corporate Bond Market Didn’t Get the Recession Memo

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): The Importance of Nancy Pelosi's Visit to Taiwan on Bond Market Swings

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): Stressful Summer Averted: European Bond Yields Settle for Less Than 3-2-1

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): Xi Jinping’s $920 Billion Venture Capital Push Has a Dark Side

•   Bloomberg(Aaron Brown): Stock Investors Better Hope a Recession Has Started

•   Bloomberg(Clara Ferreira Marques): Miners in a Squeeze: Elements by Clara Ferreira Marques

•   Bloomberg(Matthew Brooker): Pelosi Has Nailed the Optics of Her Taiwan Trip

•   MarketWatch(Peter Morici): The Fed's inflation promises are simply not credible

•   MarketWatch(Alberto Cavallo): Food inflation remains stubbornly high in U.S. and Europe

•   MarketWatch(Robert Brusca): The bond market has a strong opinion on inflation — but what is it saying about a recession?

•   Fox News(Marco Rubio): Communist China is the biggest threat facing our country and Biden is asleep at the wheel

•   Fox News(Tom Cotton): Blame Biden's reckless waffling over Pelosi's Taiwan trip for creating an international incident

•   Fox Business(Larry Kudlow): These tax hikes slam everybody across the board