Global Economic Monitor 220729

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Shares rally, U.S. Treasury yields fall as U.S. economy shrinks

※   U.S. GDP declined 0.9% in Q2 for second straight drop

※   Yields on U.S. Treasuries fall, dollar rises

※   Wall Street rises, European stocks closed higher

•   Eurozone: Italian long-term borrowing costs stuck near eight-year highs

•   Natural gas: European Gas Prices Slide as Russian Flows Steady at Low Levels

•   Metals: Copper rebounds on hopes for slower U.S. rate hikes, China stimulus

•   Grains: Soybeans, corn firm on anticipated heat stress; wheat follows higher

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Tops $23,000 in Bet on Post-Fed Thawing of Crypto Winter

•   한국: 코스피, 외국인 매수세에 2,430선 회복…환율 1,200원대로 내려

•   한국: 아이폰 발표의 계절 되자…LG이노텍·비에이치 꿈틀

[Indicators]

•   US Q2 GDP: U.S. GDP Fell at 0.9% Annual Rate in Second Quarter; Recession Fears Loom Over Economy

※   Output shrank for second straight quarter, held back by rising inflation and interest rates

※   BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

※   WSJ: Biden Faces Recession Worries After Six Months of Economic Contraction

※   WSJ: Recession or Not, the Recovery Has Ended

※   WSJ: A Recession Isn’t Necessary for Investors to Feel Lousy

※   NYT: Climate Change Is Probably a Drag on Growth, but It’s Unclear How Much

※   WP: What two negative GDP quarters means for ‘recession’ — and our politics

※   Bloomberg: Computers Outperform Humans for Accuracy on US GDP Forecasts

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: U.S. Jobless Claims Hold Near Highest Level of the Year

•   Eurozone Jul. Economic sentiment: Euro zone sentiment falls far more than expected in July

•   Germany Jul. CPI: German inflation hits 8.5% as food prices jump

•   Spain Q2 Employment: Spanish unemployment rate falls to lowest level since 2008

•   Argentina Benchmark rate: Argentina Boosts Key Rate to 60% as Inflation Soars Toward 70%

•   한국 2020년 중소기업 기본통계: 근로자 다섯 중 넷은 中企 근무

•   한국 2021년 인구주택총조사: 인구 붕괴, 작년부터 시작됐다

※   조선: 당장 내년 내국인 5000만명 깨져… 3년뒤 학령인구 94만명 급감

※   조선: 14년째 인구 줄어든 日, 노동력 100만명 이상 부족

※   조선: “인구정책 매번 실패… 완전히 판 뒤집어야”

•   한국 6월 주택 통계: 상반기 주택매매량 작년보다 45%↓…거래절벽속 미분양 증가

•   한국 6월 유통업체 매출: 유통업 매출 10% 늘었다…산업부 6월 통계 발표

•   한국 6월 사업체 노동력: 치솟는 물가에 월급 오히려 줄었다…임금인상 압력 거세지나

•   한국 8월 중소기업 경기전망지수: 8월 中企 경기전망지수 78.5… 3개월 연속 하락

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): "내년 하반기부터 급매 쏟아질 것"…숨 죽인 매수예정자들

[News]

•   WSJ: China’s Xi Warns Biden over Taiwan as a Pelosi Trip Injects New Tensions

※   Visit by House speaker to self-ruled island would likely sink tentative rapprochement between U.S., China

•   WSJ: House Passes Chips Act to Boost U.S. Semiconductor Production

•   WSJ: Manchin, Schumer Revived Climate Bill in Secret Talks, Now Seek Democrats’ Support

※   Party needs to stay united on proposal opposed by Republicans in order to advance bill through Senate

•   WSJ: Senate Climate Bill Is a Boon for Fossil Fuels

•   WSJ: Democrats Ready Carried-Interest Tax Hike After 15-Year Lobbying Campaign

•   WSJ: Manchin-Schumer Deal Would Have Moderate Inflation-Fighting Effect, Economists Say

•   WSJ: Tesla, GM, Other EV Makers Get Potential Win in Senate Deal

•   WSJ: Northern Ukraine Comes Under Burst of Russian Attacks Far From Front Lines

•   WSJ: Bracing for Long Conflict, Kyiv Returns to Near Normality, With Theaters and Dance Parties

•   WSJ: Europe’s Heat Waves Force Shift Back to Coal and Natural Gas

•   WSJ: How the German Economic Machine Broke Down

•   WSJ: Chinese Leaders Indicate Country Is Likely to Miss Economic Growth Targets

※   Politburo urges stronger provinces to strive to meet their annual growth targets

•   WSJ: China Pressures Cities as They Scramble to Repair Ailing Property Markets

•   WSJ: If You’re Worried About the Economy, Here’s What You Can Do

•   WSJ: Apple Profit Falls About 11%, but iPhone Sales Remain Resilient

※   Chief Executive Tim Cook says there isn’t ‘obvious evidence’ that macroeconomic factors are affecting smartphone sales

•   WSJ: Jack Ma Plans to Cede Control of Ant Group

•   WSJ: Amazon Posts Net Loss for the Second Straight Quarter as It Manages Slower Demand

•   WSJ: Mark Zuckerberg’s Bid to Reinvent Facebook Parent Meta Hits Early Snags

•   WSJ: Intel Posts Sharp Drop in Sales, Issued Muted Outlook

•   WSJ: Volkswagen Says EV Shift Will Continue Under New CEO

•   WSJ: Oil Giant Shell Isn’t Letting the Cash Go to Its Head

•   WSJ: Oil Refiners Won’t Crack in a Recession

•   WSJ: Rival Chip Makers Brag About Having the Tiniest Products, but Who Can Tell?

•   NYT: Seven Key Provisions in the Climate Deal

•   NYT: Crops ‘Stored Everywhere’: Ukraine’s Harvest Piles Up

•   NYT: Iran Ramps Up Drone Exports, Signaling Global Ambitions

•   NYT: The Word of the Year Is ‘Uncertainty’

•   NYT: A.I. Predicts the Shape of Nearly Every Protein Known to Science

•   WP: Ukraine could be turning the tide of war again as Russian advances stall

•   WP: What causes a recession? How economic downturns begin.

•   WP: Nuclear threat higher now than in Cold War, British official warns

•   FT: Gas crisis raises recession risk for inflation-hit eurozone economy

•   FT: Saudi crown prince in Paris visit to boost credentials

•   FT: Germany and east European allies struggle to seal deals over Ukraine-bound weapons

•   FT: Would prime minister Truss carry on playing chicken with the EU?

•   FT: UK car production driven down by global chip shortage

•   FT: Strike action threatens to shut down UK’s biggest container port

•   FT: There’s no such thing as r-star

•   FT: China’s central bank seeks to mobilise $148bn bailout for real estate projects

•   FT: Xi Jinping’s graft crackdown targets technology minister

•   FT: Bangladesh seeks IMF loan as rising import bills hit South Asia

•   FT: French energy group EDF records €5.3bn loss ahead of renationalisation

•   FT: Stellantis hits record profits but warns on economic clouds

•   Bloomberg: The Strong Dollar Is Wreaking Havoc Globally — And It’s Just Getting Started

•   Bloomberg: Pelosi Set to Depart on Asia Trip, Taiwan Stop Still Unclear

•   Bloomberg: Yellen Says US Economy Is Not Seeing Recession Conditions Now

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Visco Says There’s a Risk of a Recession in Europe

•   Bloomberg: Sunak Admits He’s Falling Behind in Race to Become UK Premier

•   Bloomberg: Sunak or Truss, Britain's Next Prime Minister Faces Brexit Crisis

•   Bloomberg: Bank of England Battle Brews As Tory Criticism Grows

•   Bloomberg: UK Probably Already in Recession, Former BOE Rate-Setter Says

•   Bloomberg: UK Grid Warns Energy Costs Could Skyrocket Amid Russia Gas Curbs

•   Bloomberg: China Decouples Further From US as Benchmark Rate Trails Fed

•   Bloomberg: China Banks Rush to Raise Record Debt as Credit Losses Mount

•   Bloomberg: Unidentified Drone Flew Over Dongyin Island, Taiwan Military Says

•   Bloomberg: US, China Economic Woes Point to End of Taiwan’s Chip-Led Boom

•   Bloomberg: Abe Killing Puts Pressure on Lawmakers’ Unification Church Ties

•   Bloomberg: Indians’ Desperation for State Jobs Shows Unemployment Crisis

•   Bloomberg: Ramaphosa’s Plans for Economy Pact Slammed by Business and Labor

•   Bloomberg: Argentina Names Third Economy Minister in a Month Amid Crisis

•   Bloomberg: What Analysts Say Is Next for Asian Markets After Fed Decision

•   Bloomberg: A New Bench of Traders Muscle In to Supply Russian Oil to India

•   Bloomberg: Middle East’s Biggest Oil Hub Disrupted by Unusual Rain

•   Bloomberg: Copper Producers Step Up Campaign Against Chile Royalty Proposal

•   Bloomberg: Global Coal Consumption to Match Record as EU Rushes to Save Gas

•   Bloomberg: Evergrande's $460 Million Man Is Top CEO to Fall in China Crisis

•   Bloomberg: Consumers Still Love Eating Out and Traveling Even as Prices Surge

•   Bloomberg: Europe Industrial Profits Soar Despite Inflation, Gloomy Outlook

•   Bloomberg: Russia-Ukraine Conflict Turns Fuel Tankers Into Hot Property

•   Bloomberg: Oil, Gas Industry Methane Fee Survives in Manchin Spending Deal

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: In an Age of Inflation, the Old Recession-Fighting Tools Won’t Work

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Inflation Upends Stimulus Playbook to Avert a Recession

•   Reuters: Russia daily COVID cases hit highest since April

•   Reuters: Made in Britain: Broken supply lines drive manufacturing back home

•   Reuters: Fasten your seatbelts for a bumpy ride, Euronext CEO warns

•   Reuters: From grain to gasoline: a brief world history of rationing

•   Reuters: Analysis: After another jumbo Fed hike, some investors see glimmers of hope

•   Reuters: Analysis: Hint of a Fed pause opens door to Asia's emerging markets

•   CNBC: IMF warns rising debt in Asia puts region at risk

※   IMF: Asia’s Economies Face Weakening Growth, Rising Inflation Pressures

•   CNBC: Trucking CEOs expect higher prices, potential disruptions in second half of the year

•   MarketWatch: Is the housing market in a recession? Here’s what economists are saying

•   Fox Business: World Economic Forum calls to reduce private vehicles by eliminating 'ownership'

•   SCMP: As chip-making business returns to US, Washington – and Arizona – dangle subsidies in race against China

•   SCMP: Risk of accidental US-China conflict over Taiwan could leave Japan badly exposed

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan daily COVID cases top 230,000; record for 2nd straight day

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan, U.S. to launch R&D for 2-nm chip mass production

•   Nikkei Asia: Toyota's April-June output falls 9.8% below global target

•   매경(P1): 尹 "불법공매도 척결"… 혐의땐 즉시 檢수사

•   매경: 개미 원성에 불법 공매도 엄벌 칼 뺀 정부…공매도 금지까지 가나

•   매경(P1): "미국인은 총수로 지정 말아달라"…美 상무부, 韓 정부에 우려 표명

•   매경: 공정위, 외국인 동일인 지정땐…美서 형평성 문제 제기할수도

•   매경: 삼성전자 "3나노 반도체 대형고객 확보"

•   매경: 삼성전자 "파운드리·폴더블폰으로 경기불황 넘는다"

•   매경: '손목 위 의사' 삼성워치, 헬스케어로 애플에 승부

•   매경: 퀄컴, 삼성과 동맹 강화…6G 특허 라이선스 연장

•   매경: 한화 방산계열사 통합…미래 동력으로 키운다

•   매경: "한미 금리역전에도 자본유출 제한적"

•   매경: "대우조선 분리매각 검토…産銀 이전은 조속히 추진"

•   매경: "원화값 일시적 급등…1300~1350원 횡보할것"

•   매경: 최태원 "칩4 참여, 유리한쪽 선택될것"

•   매경: 이러니 개미들이 물리지…주가 조금 오른다고 10% 금리에도 빚투

•   매경: 중소형 사모펀드 돈가뭄에…中企 M&A 시장 쪼그라든다

•   매경: 벤처투자 8분기만에 감소…"지금은 몸 사려야 할 때"

•   매경: 임대차법 시행후 서울 월세 30% 더 올라

•   매경: 싱크탱크도 비판한 '15억 주담대 금지'…"집값 안정효과 적어"

•   매경: 이자도 못 갚는 '좀비기업' 2008년 금융위기 후 최다

•   한경(P1): 물적분할 반대주주에…주식매수청구권 준다

•   한경(P1): 기업 '모래주머니' 1004개 손본다

•   한경: 현대重·LG화학·롯데케미칼 '맞춤형 규제 완화'…1.6조원 투자 길 열려

•   한경: "시대 뒤처진 낡은 규제 업데이트…기업 봐주기 아냐"

•   한경: 총리실-기재부 경쟁하듯…같은 날 규제개혁안 발표

•   한경(P1): "포스코, 하청직원 직고용하라"…산업계 대혼란

•   한경: "2조 넘게 더 든다" 포스코 '쇼크'…현대차·삼성도 '초비상'

•   한경: 獨·日은 사내도급·파견 규제 풀었는데…한국만 엄격

•   한경: 정부, 직무급 늘린다는데…호봉제 기업 더 늘었다

•   한경: '형기 만료' 앞둔 이재용, 8·15 광복절에 경영 복귀 달렸다

•   한경: "공공 클라우드 시장 잡아라"…몸집 키우는 KT, 2조원 투자

•   한경: "조끼처럼 입으면 무거운 짐도 부상없이 척척"

•   한경: 폐수 재활용·공장 리모델링…산단의 변신

•   한경: 한국 최초 달 탐사선 발사 D-7…"누리호 영광 다시 한번"

•   한경: "공사기간 20~50% 줄이는 신기술"…모듈러 주택 13층 높이 첫 도전

•   한경: '최하위 등급' 지방공기업 9곳, 임원 연봉 10% 깎는다

•   서경(P1): "공급망·경제안보 전략 연대"…印尼 '아세안 투톱' 국가로

•   서경: 尹 "세종시 건설경험 전수" 조코위 "핵심광물 공급망 협력"

•   서경: [단독] 중견 25%·중기 30%…與, 반도체 세액공제율 확정

•   서경: 칩4 가입 무게둔 韓총리 "어느 국가가 추진하든 들어가야"

•   서경: LNG 발전과 탄소배출 비슷한데…수소연료전지, 친환경지원금 독식

•   서경: 전장사업 투자 늘리는 LG전자…1억달러 들여 멕시코 공장 증설

•   서경: "코로나 재유행 1~2주 내 정점…이후 꺾일 것"

•   서경: "더 오르기 전에 빚부터 갚자"…이달 신용대출 1조원 줄었다

•   조선: 신성환 금통위원 “중앙은행에 이처럼 난해한 과제는 수십년만”

•   조선: 1000대 기업 법인세 40조… 1위 삼성전자가 20% 차지

•   조선: 세금 퍼붓는 대우조선… 産銀의 낙하산 인사가 부른 ‘무능 경영’

•   조선: 상반기 전 세계 ETF 순자산총액 14% 감소, 한국은 0.3%만 감소

•   조선: 아시아 소비자들, 말로는 ‘친환경’ 원한다면서 왜 지갑은 안 열까

•   조선: 외환보유액 감소, 큰 걱정 안 해도 될 3가지 이유

•   조선비즈: “반값 전기차, 폐배터리에 달렸다”… 공격 투자 나서는 기업들

•   인베스트조선: 달러채로 눈돌리는 韓기업들…변동성에 조달 타이밍 ‘갈팡질팡’

•   인베스트조선: "내년 투자는 어떻게?" 질문에 속내 복잡한 삼성전자

•   중앙: [팩트체크] 소비자 속 태우는 기름값…정유사 ‘횡재세’ 걷어야 할까

•   중앙: 빨리 더 빨리, 시속 80㎞ 로봇들이 움직인다 ‘무인창고 전쟁’

•   동아(P1): 김정은 “선제타격 시도땐 윤석열정권 전멸” 협박

•   국민: [단독] 반쪽짜리 된 경사노위… 국힘, 새로운 노사정 협의체 추진

•   머니투데이(P1): "上, 上, 上 1049% 폭등"...개미 유혹하는 '저세상 주식', 정체는

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 한경연 "美 적정 기준금리 3.12%땐 한국도 3.65%까지 오를수도" [한·미 금리역전]

•   이데일리: 종부세 완화로 쌓였던 급매 줄겠지만…꽁꽁 언 시장 녹이기엔 역부족

•   이데일리: 보유세 줄어드는 집주인들, 임차인 '세 전가'도 줄어들 것

•   이데일리: 집값 급등에 세 부담 여전…"똘똘한 한채 선호 지속"

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 8만3140명 확진…1주일 전의 1.25배

•   뉴스1: [단독]청약 만점 통장 옛말…올해 당첨 평균 커트라인 20점대 '뚝'

•   더구루: [단독] 삼성전자, 인도 2위 통신사에 5G 장비 공급

•   일요시사: <단독> “한국 가고 싶어요” 대륙에 갇힌 반도체 노예들

•   전자신문(P1): [단독]'갤럭시Z 폴드4' 출고가 199만8700원 동결

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Gelsomina Vigliotti): Multilateralism and the Private Sector

•   Project Syndicate(Tavneet Suri, Nidhi Parekh): How a Universal Basic Income Helped Kenyans Fight COVID

•   FT(Megan Greene): Trouble is coming for emerging markets beyond Sri Lanka

•   FT(David Pilling): What Bangladesh can teach others about development

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): You see a dove, I see a hawk

•   FT(Simon Kuper): Splendid isolation? Most people prefer globalisation

•   FT(Claire Jones): The Fed’s rate increases are a matter of high interest for everyone

•   FT(Lex): China property: $150bn is not enough to lift sector out of its slump

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Investors Love Jerome Powell

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Goodbye Fed Forward Guidance? Let Us Hope

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Biden Stagflation Arrives

•   WSJ(Joseph C. Sternberg): The Dollar Emergency Is Worse Than You Think

•   WSJ(Dennis Kneale): Stop Panicking About the U.S. Economy

•   WSJ(Phillip W. Magness): A Recession by Any Other Name

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): How Goes the War on Inflation?

•   NYT(Bonnie S. Glaser, Zack Cooper): Nancy Pelosi’s Trip to Taiwan Is Too Dangerous

•   WP(Editorial Board): The surprise Manchin deal is cause for celebration

•   WP(Catherine Rampell): Democrats prepare to scapegoat the Fed for their own follies

•   WP(Jennifer Rubin): Recession or jobs boom? It’s not so simple.

•   WP(Jennifer Rubin): 5 factors that give Democrats a fighting chance in November

•   WP(Eugene Robinson): Joe Manchin’s climate deal isn’t enough, but it’s still a miracle

•   WP(Megan McArdle): A Trump nomination is in no one’s interest. Democrats included.

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): China Needs to Do More Than Placate Angry Homeowners

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): New Budget Deal Would Be a Big Win for Congress — and the Country

•   Bloomberg(Mohamed A. El-Erian): Are Interest Rates at Neutral? Markets Certainly Hope So

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): Are Commodity Markets on the Turn?: Elements by David Fickling

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Powell Smartly Swears Off Guidance But Then Doles Some Out

•   Bloomberg(Anjani Trivedi): More EVs Could Melt the Grid Without a Power Plan. China has a Solution

•   Bloomberg(Maria Tadeo): The Days of ‘Germany Knows Best’ Are Over

•   Bloomberg(Maria Tadeo): Europe Energy Crisis: It's Time Germany Answer to Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece

•   Bloomberg(Leonid Bershidsky): Are Putin's Territorial Goals in Ukraine Shrinking or Expanding?

•   Bloomberg(Andrea Felsted): Consumer Giants Are More Like Walmart Than They Think

•   Bloomberg(Shannon O'Neil): Chile’s Failed Pensions Are Neoliberalism’s Badge of Shame

•   MarketWatch(Rex Nutting): What’s a recession? It depends on whom you ask—an economist or a fishmonger

•   MarketWatch(Alfonso Peccatiello): The Fed vowed to crush inflation with higher rates. Then the stock market rallied. Here’s why. (It’s not good news.)

•   Fox News(Mark T. Esper): The Ukraine war shocked the world. We must act now to prevent the next one in Asia

•   Fox News(Michael McCaul): The China threat is enormous and America must win the next great global competition

•   Reuters(John Kemp): Low U.S. oil inventories imply deeper economic slowdown will be needed