Global Economic Monitor 220708

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: S&P, Nasdaq end higher as July hot streak continues

※   Weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rise

※   Fed hinting at less aggressive rate hikes emboldens

※   Samsung results boost chipmakers

※   Indexes up: Dow 1.12%, S&P 1.5%, Nasdaq 2.28%

•   UK: Pound climbs after Johnson resigns

•   Natural gas: European Gas Extends Scorching Rally With Supply Fears Mounting

•   Metals: Copper bounces on China stimulus hopes

•   Grains: Wheat rebounds 4% as recession jitters abate

•   한국: 코스피, 외국인·기관 순매수에 2,330대 회복…삼성전자 3%↑

[Indicators]

•   US May Balance of trade: U.S. Trade Gap Narrowed in May as Imports of Goods Slowed

•   US Jun.Small business job openings: Half of US Small Businesses Had Job Openings in June, NFIB Says

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: U.S. Jobless Claims Rose Slightly Last Week, Staying Near Prepandemic Levels

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates(Freddie Mac): Mortgage Rates Fall to 5.30%, Reflecting Recession Fears

•   Germany May Industrial production: German industrial output rises less than expected in May

•   UK Jun. House prices: UK house prices rise at fastest rate in 18 years

•   China Jun. Foreign reserves: China's June forex reserves fall more than expected to $3.071 trln

•   한국 5월 경상수지: 5월 경상수지 38.6억달러 흑자…1년전보다 65.5억달러 감소

•   한국 주간 아파트 수급동향(부동산원): 강남구 아파트값마저 하락…노원·은평은 내림세 커져

[News]

•   WSJ: Fed’s Christopher Waller Supports Another 0.75-Point Rate Rise in July

※   The central bank could debate whether to shift to more traditional quarter-point rate rises in November, the Fed governor says

•   WSJ: Fed’s James Bullard Says 0.75-Point July Rate Rise Is Likely

•   WSJ: Ukraine Says Western Weapons Begin to Help as It Raises Flag on Snake Island

•   WSJ: Strikes Roll Across Europe as Unions Push for Higher Wages to Offset Inflation

•   WSJ: Netherlands Poised to Make Work-From-Home a Legal Right

•   WSJ: Copper’s Slide Signals Mounting Recession Concern

•   WSJ: Crypto Tumult Highlights Lack of Investor Protections

•   WSJ: Big Cities Can’t Get Workers Back to the Office

•   WSJ: Shell Has Big Plans to Drill in the Gulf of Mexico Despite Climate and Political Debate

•   WSJ: Rajeev Misra to Step Back From Top Executive Role at SoftBank

•   WSJ: After Xiaomi and Huawei, Chinese Phone Maker Vivo Is Latest to Face Tax Scrutiny in India

•   WSJ: Memory-Chip Prices Fall From Pandemic Highs

•   WSJ: Chip Makers May Pick Up Political Cost Without the Benefit

•   WSJ: Companies Plan Additional Cuts to Office Space Amid Looming Downturn

•   WSJ: Meta Will No Longer Longer Make VR-Headset Users Log In With Facebook Accounts

•   WSJ: The 100% Recyclable Running Shoe That’s Only Available by Subscriptio

•   NYT: What the BA.5 Subvariant Could Mean for the United States

•   NYT: E.P.A., Curbed by Supreme Court, Falls Back on a Piecemeal Plan for Climate Change

•   NYT: Beijing Introduces a Local Vaccine Pass and Urges Older People to Get Shots

•   NYT: China Rejects U.S.-U.K. Espionage Claims

•   WP: Why has North Korea stopped boasting about its missile tests?

•   WP: Elon Musk’s deal to buy Twitter is in peril

•   FT: Boris Johnson bows to pressure and quits after days of turmoil

※   Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Ben Wallace expected to stand for Tory party leadership

•   FT: The entertainer who tried to defy political gravity

•   FT: After three years in office, Boris Johnson loses his party and country

•   FT: What next for Boris Johnson’s defining legacy?

•   FT: Who will be the next UK prime minister?

•   FT: New UK prime minister to be chosen by early September

•   FT: EU gave up on Johnson but expects more of same from successor

•   FT: UK businesses urge swift action to restore confidence after Johnson’s resignation

•   FT: Soaring inflation sparked ECB calls for more aggressive rate rises, minutes show

※   ECB: Account of the June monetary policy meeting

•   FT: Failure of US climate leadership compounds fears for COP27 summit

•   FT: Russia prepares to mobilise economy for longer war in Ukraine

•   FT: Hungary and Poland: Decoupled but still waiting for EU money

•   FT: French finance minister says EU debt rules are ‘obsolete’

•   FT: Europe’s biggest biogas producer warns EU targets unachievable

•   FT: UK unveils biggest round of clean energy subsidies

•   FT: New Covid variants threaten China’s mRNA vaccine hopes

•   FT: India and UK to seal trade deal in ‘next few months’, minister says

•   FT: Fruit becomes a luxury in Erdoğan’s Turkey as inflation threatens re-election bid

•   FT: Rethinking the value of collateral for money markets

•   FT: The oil market’s bull run isn’t over yet

•   FT: How China’s BYD played catch-up with Tesla

•   FT: Metals industry opposes proposed EU toxic label on battery component lithium

•   FT: IEA warns on China’s dominance of solar panel supply chain

•   Bloomberg: US to Seek G-20 Side Deals on Ukraine to Get Past Russia, China

•   Bloomberg: Why Developing Countries Are Facing a Debt Default Crisis

•   Bloomberg: Top US General Spoke With Chinese Counterpart on Reducing Risks

•   Bloomberg: US Jobs Report to Show ‘Natural Slowdown’ But Not Broad Weakness

•   Bloomberg: Almost 80% of US Workers Fear Losing Their Job in a Recession

•   Bloomberg: US Recession Is Already Here, According to Wells Fargo Investment Group

•   Bloomberg: BofA Says Consumer Spending Remains Resilient Despite Inflation

•   Bloomberg: US State Debt Levels Rose in 2021 At Fastest Pace in Five Years

•   Bloomberg: ECB Tool Has Name, But Arrival on July 21 Seems Uncertain

•   Bloomberg: ‘Very Likely’ ECB Rate Hikes to Come as Growth Slows, Knot Says

•   Bloomberg: Germany to Breach Debt Limits Once Again If Putin Shuts Off Gas

•   Bloomberg: Germany Weighs Intervention in Energy Markets to Bring Back Coal

•   Bloomberg: Macron’s Economic Agenda Faces First Test in Divided Assembly

•   Bloomberg: France’s Le Maire Gives Companies Until Year End to Raise Wages

•   Bloomberg: UK Would Tip Into Recession Without Russian Energy, OBR says

•   Bloomberg: UK Inflation Expectations Are Heating Up, BOE Survey Shows

•   Bloomberg: BOE’s Top Economist Says Willing to Move Faster on Rates if Needed

•   Bloomberg: BOE’s Mann Backs ‘Front Loading’ Hikes When Inflation Uncertain

•   Bloomberg: Euro Zone Faces Recession With or Without Gas Cut-Off, ING Says

•   Bloomberg: China Considers $220 Billion Stimulus With Unprecedented Bond Sales

•   Bloomberg: China’s Commerce Ministry Urges US Not to Add New Trade Measures

•   Bloomberg: China’s Li Urges Coastal Powerhouses to Roll Out Growth Policies

•   Bloomberg: China Lays Ground to Counter Indo-Pacific Strategy in Asia

•   Bloomberg: Japan’s Economic Recovery Seen Weaker With Sticky Inflation

•   Bloomberg: BOJ Likely to Raise Price Forecasts, Cut Growth View

•   Bloomberg: Marcos Jr.’s Big Promises to Philippines Face Economic Reality

•   Bloomberg: Euro Traders Ponder Just How Low the Currency Could Go Below $1

•   Bloomberg: Oil Traders in Panic After Russia Order to Halt CPC Terminal

•   Bloomberg: China’s Steel Industry Sounds the Alarm Over Crisis Conditions

•   Bloomberg: The Chip Supply Chain Is Getting Harder to Trade: Tech Watch

•   Bloomberg: Greenest EV's on the Market: Explore Ratings, Specs, Prices

•   Bloomberg: What Would Happen in Nuclear War? Global Little Ice Age, Simulations Show

•   Bloomberg: Solar Power Growth Estimates for 2050 Are Aggressive, But Not Unrealistic

•   Bloomberg: World Needs to Spend $110 Billion a Year to Curb Methane Gas Emissions

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: The US Industrial Complex Is Starting to Buckle From High Power Costs

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Putin’s War Threatens Europe’s Ambitious Climate Goals

•   Reuters: Putin warns the West Ukraine 'heading for tragedy'

•   Reuters: India restricts wheat flour exports

•   Reuters: China's Xiaomi produces first smartphones in Vietnam

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. recession fears beckon investors back to painful Treasuries trade

•   AP: With US dollar nearly equal to euro, impact is being felt

•   AP: Monkeypox cases rise 77% in UN agency’s latest weekly count

•   MarketWatch: Financial and commodities markets signal a recession threat. Stocks still look to rally. What gives?

•   Fox Business: Energy expert warns 'tight' global oil market is 'getting worse'

•   SCMP: China, emerging markets suffering worst capital exodus in 7 years with US$4 billion net outflow in June

•   SCMP: Russian FM looks to China for greater cooperation under pressure from the West

•   SCMP: China population: ‘extremely low’ birth rate in Wuhu highlights national demographic crisis

•   Caixin: Analysis: The Post-Pandemic Future of China’s Vaccine Industry

•   Nikkei Asia: Weak yen and cheap money keep Japan's property market booming

•   Nikkei Asia: Risky China business: Japan Inc. wary over Taiwan, zero-COVID

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan aims to demonstrate carbon-neutral ships in 2026

•   매경(P1): 尹 "재정만능주의 탈피"…나라살림 고삐 죈다

※   기재부: 「2022 국가재정전략회의」 개최

•   매경: 재정적자, GDP 3%이내로 축소…적자규모 年 43조 줄이는 효과

•   매경: [단독] '빚더미' 공공기관 철퇴 속도낸다…정부, 재무악화 '현미경 검증'

•   매경(P1): 삼성전자 매출 77조…역대 두번째 실적

•   매경: 갤럭시 부진, 반도체로 버텼지만…삼성전자, 하반기 성적표는 시계제로

•   매경: 첨단산업 M&A·웨어러블 로봇…삼성 '회심의 카드' 내놓는다

•   매경(P1): 자율차 특허 늘어 한국차 혁신기업 질주

•   매경: K특허의 진화…전자·자동차 이어 식품·화장품·우주로 확장

•   매경: 한전 특허수 11위인데 경쟁력은 25위로 '뚝'

•   매경: LG전자, TV이익 하락에 울고 車전장 흑자에 웃었다

•   매경: 치솟는 원가에 정부규제 직격탄…대기업도 가맹점 모집 중단

•   매경: 제조업 침체·고물가…KDI "경제심리 크게 위축"

※   KDI: KDI 경제동향 2022. 7

•   매경: '선망 직장' 현대차, 이직 늘고 노조원 줄었다는데…무슨 일?

•   매경: LG엔솔, 영업이익 73%급감…車감산·물류·원자재값 영향

•   매경: 자율운항·신소재…K-조선, 세상에 없던 배로 'R의 파고' 넘는다

•   매경: '드론배달' 운영 도미노피자, 내년엔 로봇배달 목표

•   매경: [단독] 정부, 첫 민간 모태펀드 시동…벤처투자 활짝

•   매경: 금리인상에 수익률 뚝…빌딩 거래도 급감

•   매경: 아파트 경매도 '똘똘한 한 채'…서울 낙찰가율 최고치 기록

•   매경: 공장·창고도 실거래가 공개…국토부 "기업 투자 촉진 기대"

•   한경(P1): 오세훈 시장 "용산정비창, 아시아 실리콘밸리로 만들 것"

•   한경: 예결위 상설화' 급물살 타나

•   한경: K바이오의 힘…셀트리온·삼바, 年 매출 2조 보인다

•   한경: 윤곽 드러난 현대차 폐배터리 사업

•   한경: 블록체인협회 해체되나…5대 암호화폐거래소 탈퇴

•   한경: "퇴직금에 성과급 포함해야"…판결 또 나와

•   서경: 대우조선 사장의 호소 "불법파업에 2800억 손실…10만여명 생계위협"

•   서경: 대우·GS·삼성 등 수도권 건설현장 60곳, 11일부터 멈춘다

•   서경: 인도선 쇼핑플랫폼도 허용하는데…한국 은행은 배달앱 내놨다 '비난 화살'

•   서경: 더 촘촘해진 '금융 감시망'…올 예고된 금감원 검사만 779회

•   서경: "정권 바뀌어도 관치금융 여전"…은행권 '배당·금리 자율성' 실종

•   조선: “3개월 만에 코로나 재감염”... 전 세계 휩쓰는 변종 BA.5 정체는

•   조선: 삼성그룹이 만든 ‘종로타워’, SK 품으로… 인수가격은

•   조선: 고물가로 ‘축의금플레이션’, 얼마를 내야 할까요?

•   조선비즈: 외국인, 올해 15조 팔았다…13년來 첫 外人지분율 30% 붕괴 가능성도

•   조선비즈: [르포] 원자잿값 상승에 찬바람 부는 새벽 인력시장… 일용직 절반 빈손으로 돌아가

•   조선비즈: 금리 인상·환경 규제에… 해운업계, ‘선박금융 강화’ 한 목소리

•   조선비즈: 천정부지 치솟는 반도체 원재료값...삼성·TSMC 칩 가격 상승 불보듯

•   중앙: 19일 방한하는 옐런, 한·미 통화스와프 부활 가능할까

•   중앙: 교역량 줄었다, 치솟던 해상운임 꺾였다

•   동아: 무인기계에 일자리 뺏기고… ‘쪼개기 알바’로 2, 3탕 뛰고…

•   동아: [단독]“카톡 아웃링크 결제 포기” 구글에 두손 든 카카오

•   한국(P1): 전력 수요 역대 최고치 기록...블랙아웃 그림자 가까워졌다

•   한국(P1): [단독] 美 백악관 중국 담당 차관보, 한국에 온 이유는?

•   국민: 2억 화소 vs 1인치 센서… 삼성-소니 ‘이미지센서 경쟁’ 점화

•   세계(P1): 반도체 인재 양성에 ‘교육교부금’ 쓴다

•   세계: 무섭게 뛰는 생필품값… 2분기 평균 9% ↑

•   경향: 정권 입맛 따라 뒤집히는 ‘나라살림 지표’

•   경향: EU ‘원전도 녹색’ 결정…한국 원전 산업 청신호? 전문가 “글쎄”

•   머니투데이: "올릴 땐 5G, 내릴 땐 2G" 여야 '기름값 낮춘다' 벼르지만…

•   머니투데이: "하루 확진 20만 나온다" 재유행 경고에…'격리의무' 유지하나

•   머니투데이: 통계기관이 전망까지?…부동산원 집값 전망 재개 적절성 논란

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 공사중단 84일째 둔촌주공 재건축…서울시 중재 결과는

•   아시아경제(P1): 전셋값 폭등에 눈물…전세사기에 피눈물

•   디지털타임스: 韓 대기업 경제력집중도 OECD 15위… "美·日보다 낮다"

•   이데일리: 원가폭등하는데 '납품단가 연동제'라니..재계 "경쟁력 약화 불가피" 우려

•   이데일리: 실거주 안해도 양도세 '0'…재개발 투자 불붙나

•   연합: 오후9시까지 전국 1만8625명 확진…1주새 2.1배로 늘어 '더블링'

•   전자신문(P1): 반도체업계, HBM 8개·하이브리드 패키징 개발 임박

•   전자신문: [반도체 패키징데이 2022]반도체 후공정 시장 전망은

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Dante Alighieri Disparte): Yes, Crypto Still Matters

•   Project Syndicate(David Malpass): Aiding the Digital Revolution in Global Financial Inclusion

•   Project Syndicate(Owen Gaffney): Absorbing the Shock of the Energy Transition

•   Project Syndicate(Koichi Hamada): Is Taiwan the Next Ukraine?

•   Project Syndicate(Shashi Tharoor): Are the BRICS Breaking Up?

•   FT(Editorial Board): After Boris Johnson, Britain needs a different kind of politics

•   FT(Robert Shrimsley): Johnson goes, but what comes next?

•   FT(Gillian Tett): Wage growth poses a dilemma for union-friendly Biden

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): Ukraine’s reconstruction plans are appropriately ambitious

•   FT(Chris Giles): Cutting taxes will not magically improve the UK’s economic performance

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Recession speculation comes for commodities

•   FT(John Thornhill): Tesla cannot unsync from the politics of US-China relations

•   FT(Silvia Ardagna): Co-ordination is needed to avoid reawakening ghost of eurozone debt crisis

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Rise and Fall of Boris Johnson

•   WSJ(Daniel Yergin): The Global Search for Energy Security

•   WSJ(James Freeman): A Small Business Hiring Surge

•   WSJ(Karl Rove): Biden’s Six-Misstep 2022 Midterm Strategy

•   WSJ(Maurice R. Greenberg): We Want to Rebuild U.S. Relations With China

•   WSJ(Allysia Finley): Biden and Fauci Botched the Covid Pandemic Response

•   WP(Editorial Board): Democrats can’t waste this chance to pass an economic package

•   WP(Catherine Rampell): States are cutting taxes en masse. They may soon regret it.

•   WP(Marc A. Thiessen): Biden’s reckless spending set off inflation. Can you believe he wants to add more?

•   WP(Fareed Zakaria): The West’s Ukraine strategy is in danger of failing

•   WP(Eric Feigl-Ding, Kavita Patel, Yaneer Bar-Yam): Let’s call monkeypox what it is: A pandemic

•   Bloomberg(Conor Sen): US Labor Market Shows No Signs of an Imminent Recession

•   Bloomberg(Tyler Cowen): The German Trade Deficit Is No Cause for Alarm

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): The Fed Signals It’s Not for Turning, But Markets Are

•   Bloomberg(Liam Denning): Drivers Are Angry About Gas Prices, but Interest Rates Are Causing Pain, Too

•   Bloomberg(Leonid Bershidsky): Putin's Ukraine Invasion Has Created a Food Crisis the World Can Still Solve

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Working From Home Isn’t a Free Company Benefit

•   Bloomberg(Adrian Wooldridge): How Brexit Winnows the Candidates to Succeed Boris Johnson

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): Talk of an Oil Market Recession Is Overblown

•   Bloomberg(Ian Buruma): Can China Prosper Without Freedom? Maybe Not

•   CNN(Henry Fernandez): 4 ways governments can encourage businesses to meaningfully lower their carbon emissions

•   MarketWatch(Rex Nutting): The real labor shortage is looming, and everything we're doing is making it worse

•   MarketWatch(Robert Brusca): The Fed is not going to stop until inflation is locked back in its cage

•   Fox News(Nile Gardiner): Boris Johnson's exit puts Brexit in danger

•   Fox News(Karol Markowicz): Biden's economy is a flaming dumpster fire