Global Economic Monitor 220727

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks fall, bonds rise as investors seek safety

※   Wall Street stocks close lower after Walmart shock

※   Dollar rises with Treasury yields

※   Euro declines as gas crisis worries mount

※   Oil prices fall, gold virtually unchanged

•   Natural gas: European gas prices soar after Russia deepens supply cuts

•   Metals: Copper trims gains after two-week high on China infrastructure hopes

•   Grains: Corn, soybeans climb as U.S. crop ratings drop

•   한국: 코스피 2,410선 회복…대형 이벤트 앞두고 관망세

[Indicators]

•   US May Case–Shiller home price: Home-Price Growth Stayed Strong in May

•   US Jun. New home sales: US New-Home Sales Fall More Than Forecast to Two-Year Low

•   US Jul. Consumer confidence: US Consumer Confidence Drops to Lowest Since February 2021

•   China Jul. Aggregate index of early indicators(Bloomberg): China’s Economy Strengthens in July Despite Housing, Covid Woes

•   한국 2분기 GDP: 소비증가에 2분기 경제 0.7% 성장…수출감소 등 하반기 하방위험

※   한국은행: 2022년 2/4분기 실질 국내총생산(속보)

※   매경: 韓 수출 투자 성장 다 고꾸라져…"1년내 경제위기 올 확률 66%"

•   한국 상반기 건축 인허가: 건자재값 상승 여파에…인허가 받고도 착공 못해

•   한국 5월 경제활동인구조사 고령층 부가조사: "일 놓지 못하는 고령층"…연금 고작 '월 평균 69만원'

•   한국 7월 아파트 전셋값: 서울 아파트 전셋값 39개월 만에 내렸다

•   한국 7월 소비자동향: 물가 정점 아직 멀었다'…7월 기대인플레 4.7%, 사상 최고

[News]

•   WSJ: IMF Again Cuts Global Growth Forecast Amid Inflation, War in Ukraine

※   The International Monetary Fund now sees growth slowing to 3.2% this year and 2.9% in 2023

※   IMF: World Economic Outlook Update, July 2022: Gloomy and More Uncertain

•   WSJ: After Fed Raises Interest Rates Wednesday, Investors to Look for Clues About What’s Next

•   WSJ: Why a Strong Dollar Is a Double-Edged Sword for the U.S. Economy

•   WSJ: Senate Advances $280 Billion Bill Subsidizing Chip Manufacturing, Technology

•   WSJ: What’s in the Semiconductor Chips Bill That Congress Is Set to Approve?

•   WSJ: Treasury Moves to Ease Limits on Foreign Tax Credits After Companies Object

•   WSJ: U.S. Leads Globally in Known Monkeypox Cases, CDC Says

•   WSJ: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis Jockey for Position Ahead of Potential 2024 Showdown

•   WSJ: Low-Cost Cities With Strong Economies Remain Attractive as Housing Market Slows

•   WSJ: California’s Worst Drought on Record Spells Trouble for Classic Green Lawns

•   WSJ: U.S. Officials Grow More Concerned About Potential Action by China on Taiwan

•   WSJ: Taiwan Holds Military Drills as Tensions Escalate With China

•   WSJ: China Targeted Fed to Build Informant Network and Access Data, Probe Finds

•   WSJ: With No Work or Money, Ukrainians Are Forced to Return Home to Russian-Controlled Territory

•   WSJ: Russia Says It Will Withdraw From International Space Station

•   WSJ: Ukraine Calls for More Sanctions in Response to Russia’s ‘Gas War’

•   WSJ: Ukraine’s Allies Seek to Bolster Its Air Defenses With Jet Fighters and Training

•   WSJ: Investors Wave Goodbye to Negative-Yielding Debt as Central Banks Fight Inflation

•   WSJ: Google Sales Growth Slows as Pressures Mount on Ad Market

※   Online advertising remains in focus for investors as an industry critical to the health of many internet companies

•   WSJ: Microsoft Earnings Dented by Cloud Slowdown, Videogame Sales Drop

•   WSJ: GE Gets Lift From Aviation but Cuts Cash-Flow Goals

•   WSJ: GM Slows Down, Needs More Batteries

•   WSJ: General Motors’ Income Tumbles 40% on China Loss, Parts Shortages

•   WSJ: Shopify Says It Will Lay Off 10% of Workers, Sending Shares Lower

•   WSJ: Don’t Expect Big Consumer Brands to Lower Prices Soon

•   WSJ: Twitter Schedules Shareholder Vote On Elon Musk’s $44 Billion Takeover Bid

•   WSJ: Alibaba to Pursue Primary Listing in Hong Kong

•   WSJ: Hyundai Ordered to Pay $19 Million for Widespread U.S. Credit-Reporting Errors

•   NYT: After Enduring a Pandemic, Small Businesses Face New Worries

•   NYT: ‘Kind of Wild/Creative’: Emails Shed Light on Trump Fake Electors Plan

•   NYT: Is Recession Staring Us Down? Already Upon Us? Here’s Why It’s Hard to Say.

•   NYT: Small Recession Shouldn’t Stop Eurozone Rate Increases, E.C.B. Policymaker Says

•   NYT: With Crisis Everywhere, Do Democracies Have an Edge?

•   NYT: ‘Operating With Increased Intensity’: Zuckerberg Leads Meta Into Next Phase

•   NYT: How Is Climate Change Affecting Floods?

•   WP: Biden poised for big wins in Congress

•   WP: After Russian port strike, Ukraine grain deal hangs in the balance

•   WP: Myanmar junta defiantly defends executions as U.S. presses China to do more

•   FT: EU countries agree gas reduction deal to weather Russian supply curbs

※   Compromise reached in Brussels includes national opt-outs that water down initial proposals

※   European Commission: Statement by the President of the European Commission following the political agreement on the Council Regulation on coordinated demand reduction measures for gas

•   FT: Ukraine shifts gear with debt deals as war takes toll on finances

•   FT: Germany rethinks nuclear power exit due to threat of winter energy crunch

•   FT: Doubts over Italy’s access to €800bn EU Covid fund after Draghi’s exit

•   FT: Nationwide rail strike set to shut down much of UK network

•   FT: Saudi crown prince arrives on first EU trip since Jamal Khashoggi murder

•   FT: Tunisians back new constitution increasing president’s powers

•   FT: Pakistan’s financing worries are ‘overblown’ insists central bank governor

•   FT: The madness of the oil market

•   FT: Air freight demand grows even as supply bottlenecks ease

•   FT: The oil market is more fragile than it appears

•   FT: The oil dealmaker: Total’s Patrick Pouyanné is not backing down

•   FT: Alibaba scales back global expansion plan to rival Amazon

•   Bloomberg: Biden Will Speak With Xi on Thursday as US-China Ties Worsen

•   Bloomberg: Kremlin to Keep Up Its Gas Squeeze on Europe, Insiders Say

•   Bloomberg: Biden Says He’s ‘Feeling Great,’ Doctor Says He Can Exercise

•   Bloomberg: Pence Steps Away from Trump, Urges Focus on Future

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Strategists See Inflation Keeping Fed Hawkish for Longer

•   Bloomberg: Clean-Power Installations Plunge, Deepening Biden’s Green Woes

•   Bloomberg: US Is Having Its Hottest Summer Ever Based on One Energy Metric

•   Bloomberg: EU Faces Solidarity Test Over Forced Cuts in Russian Gas Fight

•   Bloomberg: Germany’s Hopes of Avoiding a Recession Are Shrinking by the Day

•   Bloomberg: Italy’s Right Has an Orban-Style Super Majority Within Reach

•   Bloomberg: UK Economy at Heart of Debate as Truss and Sunak Trade Blows

•   Bloomberg: China Covid Cases Rise as Shenzhen Flareup Snares Top Firms

•   Bloomberg: China’s Hunger for Commodities Is Wavering After Years of Growth

•   Bloomberg: Xi Gets Invitation to G-20 Summit, But His Response Is Unclear

•   Bloomberg: Japan’s Deeper Inflation Trend Shows Price Growth Spreading

•   Bloomberg: Japan Raises View of Economy for July as Consumption Picks Up

•   Bloomberg: Myanmar Says It Has Enough Funds to Avert Sri Lanka-Like Crisis

•   Bloomberg: World’s Fastest-Growing Economy Seeks to Diversify Away From Oil

•   Bloomberg: Saudi Prince Plans $80 Billion Investment Fund for Megaproject

•   Bloomberg: Powell’s Bond Market Recession Indicator Is Sending a Warning

•   Bloomberg: Baring Sees Korea Foreign-Capital Exodus Ending, Bets Big on Consumption

•   Bloomberg: Global Competition for LNG Intensifies on New Russia Supply Cut

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Warns China’s Property Crisis Will Sink Iron Ore Prices

•   Bloomberg: US Natural Gas Is Taking Traders on a White-Knuckle Summer Ride

•   Bloomberg: China Going Quiet on LNG Hides Risk That May Upend Global Market

•   Bloomberg: Race to Secure Battery Metals Heats Up as GM, Ford Ink Deals

•   Bloomberg: Great Resignation Is Slowing Amid High Inflation, Randstad Says

•   Bloomberg: Meta Hikes VR Headset Prices About $100 as Production Costs Grow

•   Bloomberg: Japan and South Korea Hit Solar Generation Records in May

•   Reuters: Omicron BA.5 makes up 82% of COVID variants in U.S., CDC says

•   Reuters: Europe's long and chequered history of rationing

•   Reuters: Europe needs faster renewables growth rate to reach climate goals

•   Reuters: From burgers to bleach, stressed consumers buy cheap

•   Reuters: Explainer: Nord Stream's turbine tussle puts spotlight on equipment

•   Reuters: Analysis: Tunisia's Saied savours near total power but faces looming economic tests

•   Reuters: Analysis: Workers seize their moment to shift the balance of power

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. LNG exports to Europe on track to surpass Biden promise

•   Reuters: Analysis: Crisis of confidence stifles China's economic recovery

•   AP: US economy sending mixed signals: Here’s what it all means

•   AP: New studies bolster theory coronavirus emerged from the wild

•   CNBC: Can China’s economy avoid a Japan-style stagnation? Here’s what economists think

•   CNBC: Most investors, economists see Fed rate hikes causing a recession within one year, CNBC survey shows

•   CNBC: Countries are not doing enough to contain monkeypox outbreak, epidemiologist says

•   CNBC: Intel plans to make chips for Taiwan’s MediaTek to keep up with Asian manufacturing rivals

•   CNBC: Twitter says it significantly slowed hiring during the second quarter

•   Fox Business: White House announces sale of additional 20 million barrels of oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve

•   SCMP: China, Indonesia vow stronger ties as Xi Jinping and Joko Widodo hold ‘kind and friendly’ talks

•   SCMP: Explainer | China-Indonesia trade: how important is it, and what are the main exports?

•   SCMP: Beyond China: US’ Xinjiang cotton ban has far-reaching implications, even for Asian alternatives

•   SCMP: Taiwan visit by Nancy Pelosi risks sparking US-PLA conflict, army watchers warn

•   SCMP: China may increase cultural imports as part of 28-point plan to boost its soft power overseas

•   SCMP: China rejects criticism that its zero-Covid policies violate the rights of US diplomats

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan gives Kioxia and Western Digital $680m to boost chips

•   Nikkei Asia: The resilience myth: Fatal flaws in the push to secure chip supply chains

•   Nikkei Asia: Fuji Electric to ramp up output of next-gen power chips for EVs

•   매경(P1): 용산을 '아시아 실리콘밸리'로…롯데타워급 빌딩 들어선다

•   매경: UAM 띄우고 지하에 환승거점…미래교통 중심으로

•   매경: 뉴욕 허드슨야드처럼…용산, 사업·녹지·주거 융합도시로 뜬다

•   매경: 여의도공원 2배 면적…사업비 12조5천억

•   매경(P1): [단독] 주총 통지서 카톡으로 받고…내년부턴 전자주총 열려요

•   매경: 주총 당일, 클릭 한번이면 '합병 안건' 투표

•   매경(P1): 파업 불씨 임금 이중구조에…韓총리 "개선 착수"

•   매경: 대기업 '귀족노조'가 임금 끌어올려…영세기업과 격차 키웠다

•   매경: 파업 끝나자 '최저임금' 용접원 모집…대우조선 본사·하청 임금 2배 차이

•   매경: "법인세 인하효과 늦어…기업에 금융 지원을"

•   매경: 삼성·하이닉스, 반도체社 인수땐 세액 공제

•   매경: 지역화폐 예산지원 원점 재검토

•   매경: 기름값 무서워 자가용 안탔다…상반기 손해율 '뚝'

•   매경: 車산업 뿌리 '흔들'…부품업체 37%, 수익으로 이자도 못갚아

•   매경: 카카오 CEO도 놀랐다…카톡사용량 40%가 '오픈채팅'

•   매경: 코스피 올랐는데 또 헛물 켠 개미? '곱버스'만 잔뜩 샀네

•   매경: 매년 부처 공무원 1% 재배치…식물위원회 200개는 통폐합

•   한경(P1): SK, 美에 29조 추가 투자…반도체·배터리 공장 조성

•   한경(P1): 689조 vs 285조…규제가 부른 '투자 엑소더스'

•   한경: 30년 국밥집도 프랜차이즈 '퇴짜'…현장 외면한 공정위에 가맹업계 혼란

•   한경: 10년간 2배 늘어난 파업에…GDP 年 10조 줄고 일자리 17만개 증발

•   한경: 한은 새 금통위원에 신성환 "경제 안정에 최선 다할 것"

•   한경: 수출입은행장에 윤희성…첫 내부 출신

•   한경: 정부 '소득세 물가연동' 선 그었지만

•   한경: "정부 지원 기다리면 늦어"…다급한 삼성전자, 묘안 짜냈다

•   한경: 악재 뚫은 기업들…10곳 중 6곳 '깜짝 실적'

•   한경: 서울 대단지 8곳, 지난달 1건도 거래 안됐다

•   서경(P1): 불붙은 환율에 기름붓는 국민연금

•   서경: 환율 급등에도 '헤지' 외면…국민연금 '기계적 해외투자'에 수익률마저 뚝

•   서경: 유럽 최대 연기금 네덜란드 ABP는 '환헤지'…경제 상황따라 탄력 운용

•   서경: [단독]尹정부 "공기관 파티 끝"…'文정부 낙하산' 줄줄이 사퇴

•   서경: "대우조선 사태 거취 포함 책임"…박두선, 자진사퇴 가능성 시사

•   서경: 올 들어 세 차례나 성장률 하향 조정…정부도 전망치 수정 불가피

•   서경: 최고금리의 함정…조달금리 2%p 더 오르면 111만명 금융시장 '퇴출'

•   서경: 성수품 13개 중 10개 급등…추석 물가 벌써 '비상'

•   서경: "중기 5곳중 4곳 납품가 연동 못해 한계상황"

•   서경: "원재료값 3% 이상 상승때 납품대금 조정 의무화해야"

•   서경: 개미, 쪽박 공포 잊었나…빚투 3주새 8000억 늘었다

•   서경: 금융위, ‘공매도 과열종목 지정제도’ 확대한다

•   서경: 공장·창고 거래도 꺾여…작년에 비해 25.9% 감소

•   조선(P1): 수상한 해외송금… 국정원서도 조사

•   조선(P1): 아세안·유럽으로… 기업들 ‘수출 리모델링’

•   조선: 野 “감세정책 부자 위한 것”… 추경호 “서민·中企혜택 더 커”

•   조선: 초고화질 TV 사면 뭐하나… 볼 게 없는데

•   조선: “팔수록 적자” 새벽배송 철수 행렬… 빅3만 남나

•   조선비즈: 中, TSMC 7나노 공정 베꼈다… 삼성과 기술격차 2년으로 좁혀

•   조선비즈: SKT, 산업용 AI 사업 확대…“국내 제조업 경쟁력 강화”

•   조선비즈: ‘흙 속 진주’될 기업은 어디…하락장서 증권사가 목표주가 올린 롯데쇼핑‧현대차

•   조선비즈: 전세계 IT용 OLED 생산면적 여의도만큼 커진다… 삼성D, 초격차 유지

•   조선비즈: “날아서 이동하는 시대엔 교통 허브(hub)가 사라진다”

•   인베스트조선: 이제 와서 멈추기도 어려운 카카오모빌리티 매각

•   인베스트조선: 상반기 전기차 성과 증명한 현대차그룹…여전히 만만치 않은 남은 과제들

•   중앙(P1): 지원금 줄자 '빨간 두줄' 떠도 출근한다…"숨은 확진자 10만명"

•   중앙: 부천·인천·일산 ‘깡통전세’ 빨간불 켜졌다

•   동아(P1): [단독]서울 아파트 월세 부담, 2년새 年348만원 껑충

•   동아: [단독]전월셋값 급등에 금리도 껑충… “집 줄여 이사해도 주거비 더 늘어”

•   동아: “OLED 인기는 계속”… 올 유럽 TV시장 점유율 절반 넘긴다

•   문화: 종이값 상승에 뛰는 책값 …신간·중쇄·개정판 다 오른다

•   한국(P1): 윤 대통령, 한동훈 장관에 “기업 위축하는 과도한 형벌 개선하라”

•   한국: [단독] 성사 유력했던 루마니아 원전 삼중수소제거설비 수출 제동...한수원, 재입찰 도전

•   한국: 바이오매스(나무 태우기)가 탄소감축? 석탄보다 배출량 많습니다

•   서울: 여름 해수욕장에 뜬 드론… 공연·인명구조에 음식배달까지 ‘척척’

•   세계: 2022년 상반기 석유제품 수출액 280억달러… 역대 최고 기록

•   경향(P1): 기재부 ‘법인세 감세 효과’ 판단, 정권 따라 180도

•   머니투데이(P1): LG엔솔, 中도시광산서 배터리 캔다…현지 기업과 재활용 합작사

•   머니투데이: 조코위 인니 대통령이 현대차 연구소만 방문하는 이유는

•   머니투데이: 반도체난 엎친 데 환율 덮쳤다…IT업계, 서버 투자 off

•   머니투데이: 인허가·운영 어떻게?…'원전 규제'도 수출품, 사우디에 팔았다

•   헤럴드경제: 대만언론 ‘삼성 세계 첫 3나노’ 견제구

•   헤럴드경제: 尹정부 국정과제 ‘지방시대’ 10개 추가

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "할인해야 팔리던 전시차, 무조건 사겠다는 사람 줄 섰어요" [신차 출고난이 불러온 진풍경]

•   아시아경제: [자영업 폐업보고서①] "8천만원 빚 안고, 2천만원 들여서 문 닫는다"

•   아시아경제: [자영업 폐업보고서③]"다시 일어서려면 결국 '돈'…정부지원 절실"

•   아시아경제: [자영업 폐업보고서②]"망해도 먹고살려면"…10명 중 4명 '재창업'

•   아시아경제: “작지만 빠르다”… 규제 풀리며 탄력 받는 ‘미니재건축’

•   디지털타임스: 경제학자 60% "韓, 스태그 단계에 있다"

•   디지털타임스: 노사갈등 속앓는 네·카… 혁신 제동 걸리나

•   이데일리: 산업장관 “신한울 원전 3·4호기 빠른 건설 재개 노력”

•   이데일리: [단독]文정부 지우기에 '한국판 뉴딜' 홈페이지도 닫았다

•   이데일리: ‘금리 짭짤하니 안팔리네’...은행 보험ㆍ펀드 판매 뚝

•   이데일리: [기자수첩] 나라살림 걱정에 대통령실도 제2집무실 안 짓는다는데…

•   연합: 코로나 하루 확진자 10만명 넘을듯…"2~3주는 증가할것"

•   연합: 대기업 87% "원자잿값 고공행진·환율 상승으로 수익성 악화"

•   연합: 한미 기준금리 역전 임박…자금 유출 등 한국 경제 영향은

•   연합: 올해 종료 앞둔 세금감면제도 87%는 연장키로…감면액 5.5조원

•   연합: 우윳값 협상 난항…수급난 가능성에 식품·외식업계 촉각

•   뉴시스: [단독]지방부터 '부동산 PF'가 흔들린다…연체율 두배 뛰어

•   뉴시스: 부동산 시장 '한파'에 경매도 '위축'…"낙찰가율 최저"

•   SBS Biz: [단독] 삼성전자, 내년 '갤럭시' 신제품 패널 中에 맡긴다

•   전자신문(P1): 세계 반도체 장비 '빅5' 韓인력 확보 총력전

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]'선택 아닌 필수' 친환경 물류 시대 온다

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]전기비행기·물류터널…앞서가는 해외 친환경 물류

•   전자신문: 두산에너빌리티, '탄산리튬 회수' 신사업 시동

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Bo Lidegaard): Europe’s Energy Choice

•   Project Syndicate(Harold James): A Decade of “Whatever It Takes”

•   Project Syndicate(Paola Subacchi): Will Italy’s Turmoil Push Europe Back to the Brink?

•   Project Syndicate(Yanis Varoufakis): Sympathy for Germany

•   FT(Barry Eichengreen): Is the dollar about to take a turn?

•   FT(Kana Inagaki): SoftBank’s succession turmoil raises risks

•   FT(Stefan Wagstyl): Time to think about UK currency risk?

•   FT(Josep Borrell): Now is the time to save the Iran nuclear deal

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Economic Mess We’re In

•   WSJ(Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.): Hunter and Joe Biden Need Trump

•   WSJ(William A. Galston): Surprise: A Divided Congress Is Making Bipartisan Progress

•   WSJ(Judy Shelton): Why the Fed May Soon Need Treasury Help

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): The Dystopian Myths of Red America

•   NYT(Peter Pomerantsev): Ukraine Is the Next Act in Putin’s Empire of Humiliation

•   WP(Paul Waldman): 5 reasons Democrats could defy history in the midterms

•   WP(Katrina vanden Heuvel): If Democrats are losing the working class, it’s not because of the left

•   WP(James Kirchick): Germany has only itself to blame

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): The ECB’s Moves Make Sense, But Won’t Be Enough

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): Bond Investors Need to Liquidate China Evergrande Now

•   Bloomberg(Anjani Trivedi): Who Says China Has Locked in the EV Supply Chain?

•   Bloomberg(Hal Brands): Biden’s Taiwan Strategy Is Flawed Whether Pelosi Goes or Not

•   Bloomberg(Andreas Kluth): Lagarde, Putin, Biden Are All Drawing Red Lines. Will They Work?

•   Bloomberg(Clara Ferreira Marques): Putin Is Playing Hunger Games in the Black Sea

•   Bloomberg(Jessica Karl): Walmart’s Mega Sale Is More Bad News for the Economy

•   Bloomberg(Virginia Postrel): Sneaky Shrinkflation Is Driving People Crazy