Global Economic Monitor 220722

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks gain for fifth straight session, euro advances after ECB rate hike

※   ECB hikes rates by 50 basis points

※   Euro gains in choppy trading

※   Crude falls on demand worries

•   Eurozone: Italian bonds sell off after Draghi resigns and ECB boosts rates

•   Natural gas: Heat Wave Sends Natural-Gas Prices Soaring

•   Natural gas: European Gas Prices Rise as Market Focuses on Nord Stream Flows

•   Metals: Copper retreats on stubborn recession fears as ECB raises rates

•   Grains: Corn, soy, wheat fall on U.S. crop weather, Ukraine exports pact

•   한국: 코스피 17일만에 2,400선 회복…원/달러 환율 1,300원대로 내려

[Indicators]

•   US Jun. Leading economic index : U.S. leading economic index pointing to recession around end of the year, Conference Board says

•   US Jul. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing Index: Philadelphia Fed Factory Outlook Falls to Lowest Since 1979

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: U.S. Jobless Claims Rise to New High for Year

•   Eurozone Benchmark rate: ECB raises rates for first time in more than a decade

※   Half percentage point increase comes as borrowing costs rise amid political turmoil in Rome

※   ECB: Monetary policy decisions

※   FT: Spread betting: how will the ECB’s new bond-buying tool work?

•   Japan Benchmark rate: Japan Leaves Weak Yen Alone Despite Above-Target Inflation

•   Japan Jun. Balance of trade: Japan Logs Trade Deficit for 11th Month on Energy, Weak Yen

•   Indonesia Benchmark rate: Indonesia’s Central Bank Stands Pat to Safeguard Economic Growth

•   South Africa Benchmark rate: South Africa announces biggest interest rate rise in nearly 20 years

•   한국 2021년 국민대차대조표: 문재인 정부 5년간 주택시가총액 2200조원 넘게 폭증

•   한국 6월 PPI: 생산자물가 6개월째 올라…상승률은 둔화 추세

•   한국 7월 1~20일 무역수지: 7월 1∼20일 무역적자 81억달러…4개월 연속 적자 가능성

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): 하락폭 더 커진 서울 아파트값

[News]

•   WSJ: President Biden Tests Positive for Covid-19

※   White House says the 79-year-old president has mild symptoms and will continue to carry out all of his duties fully

•   WSJ: President Biden Has Covid-19: What to Know About His Symptoms, Paxlovid Treatment

•   WSJ: U.S. Military Concerned About Possible Trip to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, Biden Says

•   WSJ: The Heat Wave Is Showing No Signs of Letting Up

•   WSJ: Jan. 6 Committee Hearing to Focus on Trump’s Actions During Attack on Capitol

•   WSJ: Ukraine Faces Shortfall in Weapons as It Gears Up for First Major Counteroffensive

•   WSJ: Russia’s Donbas Offensive Slows as Ukraine Takes Advantage of Western Arms

•   WSJ: Spain, Portugal Push Back on EU Plan to Trim Gas Use

•   WSJ: Chinese Regulators Refund More Customers Caught in Alleged Rural Bank Fraud

•   WSJ: Amazon to Buy One Medical Network of Health Clinics in Healthcare Expansion

•   WSJ: Amazon Gives Healthcare Ambitions a Booster Shot

•   WSJ: Snap Posts Weakest-Ever Sales, Sending Shares Down 25% After Hours

•   WSJ: Companies Swallow $2.1 Billion in Taxes as Executive Pay Climbs

•   WSJ: Baidu Races Ahead of Tesla With Launch of Robotaxi With Detachable Steering Wheel

•   WSJ: Russian Titanium Maker Is Pulled Off Sanctions List

•   WSJ: Warehouse Developers See Spark of Demand for Electric-Vehicle Chargers

•   NYT: Vice President Harris tests negative, and her schedule will continue as planned.

•   NYT: The risk from the coronavirus is rising in much of the United States.

•   NYT: Covid’s risks are concentrated among Americans of Biden’s age.

•   NYT: Deep in a Covid Wave, Europe Counts Cases and Carries On

•   NYT: A Recession Alarm Is Ringing on Wall Street

•   NYT: Putin is ‘entirely too healthy,’ the C.I.A. director says.

•   NYT: India’s Next President Will Make History When She’s Sworn In

•   NYT: Truckers’ protests over a labor law shut Oakland’s port.

•   WP: Why European homes (usually) don’t have air conditioning

•   WP: Myanmar’s junta can’t win the civil war it started

•   FT: Russia resumes partial gas flows to Europe through Nord Stream 1

※   Germany warns that Moscow is still trying to ‘blackmail’ Europe over energy supply

•   FT: Deal on table to release millions of tonnes of grain from Ukraine ports

※   Agreement brokered by UN and Turkey paves the way to end Russia’s blockade of exports via the Black Sea

•   FT: Italy president calls snap elections after Draghi quits as PM

※   Resignation triggers alarm among investors with sell-off in Rome’s bond yields intensifying

•   FT: Hungary sends foreign minister to Moscow to ask Russia for more gas

•   FT: Who are the Tory party members picking the next UK prime minister?

•   FT: Rishi Sunak refuses to match Liz Truss on tax cuts

•   FT: UK and EU ‘urgently’ need to agree emergency energy plan, say Lords

•   FT: UK debt interest payments jump to all-time high

•   FT: UK faces some tough choices to solve its labour shortages

•   FT: Trump’s fundraising slows as Republican donors eye 2024 candidates

•   FT: ‘They will run out of money’: farmers’ fight for survival in Ukraine

•   FT: China reckons with its first overseas debt crisis

•   FT: Display makers dip into chips and a start-up struggles to deliver

•   FT: Japan faces scrutiny over details of $1.1tn climate plan

•   FT: Japan’s nuclear restart debate fires up as power crunch bites

•   FT: Japanese carmakers race to champion ‘green’ combustion engines

•   FT: Ukraine war spurs LNG demand in Japan despite fossil fuel activism

•   Bloomberg: ADB Cuts Developing Asia GDP Outlooks as Risks Remain Elevated

※   ADB: Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2022 Supplement: Recovery Faces Diverse Challenges

•   Bloomberg: A Couple of Bright Spots in Southeast Asia as China Growth Slows

•   Bloomberg: Russia Moves to Annex Occupied Ukrainian Land by September

•   Bloomberg: Treasury Official Sees Price Cap on Russian Oil by December

•   Bloomberg: Sanctioned Russians Will Have to Declare Their Assets in EU

•   Bloomberg: Senate’s Bipartisan Chips Bill Would Add $79 Billion to Deficit

•   Bloomberg: UK Spy Chief Sees Russia’s Military Running ‘Out of Steam’ Soon

•   Bloomberg: Macron’s Government Charts Path for Gradual Deficit Reduction

•   Bloomberg: Gas Crisis Risks Eurozone Recession, 2023 Inflation at 5%: Chart

•   Bloomberg: China Covid Cases Elevated as Officials Warn About Rising Risks

•   Bloomberg: Economists See China 2022 GDP Below 4% on Covid, Global Risks

•   Bloomberg: China’s Credit Market Rocked by More Debt Delays, Plunging Bonds

•   Bloomberg: China Regulator Vows to Ensure Stalled Home Builds Are Completed

•   Bloomberg: China Demand Revival Can Add to Europe Energy Woe, Goldman Says

•   Bloomberg: Mexico Is Seen Risking $30 Billion Hit in US-Canada Trade Spat

•   Bloomberg: World Bank Says Myanmar Economy Remains Fragile as Prices Soar

•   Bloomberg: Argentina Unveils Currency Measures as Black-Market Peso Slumps

•   Bloomberg: Brazil Politics: Bolsonaro Pushes Tax Cuts; Workers’ Party Event

•   Bloomberg: Indonesia Plans Wholesale Digital Currency to Improve Transfers

•   Bloomberg: Global Oil Map Seen Shifting as Industry Embraces Renewables

•   Bloomberg: Biden Crackdown on Permian Pollution to Pare Crude Output, Oil Lobby Says

•   Bloomberg: Russian Supply Fears Intensify Asian Demand for Winter Gas

•   Bloomberg: Ford Secures Batteries to Build 600,000 EVs a Year by 2023

•   Bloomberg: Ford’s Flurry of Supply Deals Gives Iron a Starring Role in EVs

•   Bloomberg: China’s Top Chipmaker Achieves Breakthrough Despite US Curbs

•   Bloomberg: Samsung Eyes $200 Billion Expansion of Chip Plants in Texas

•   Bloomberg: Intel Spends Record Sum on Lobbying Amid Global Chip Shortage

•   Bloomberg: Bitcoin Miners Cut Power the Most Since China Ban Amid Heat Wave

•   Bloomberg: Climate Tech Funding Shows Some Signs of Defying Market Turmoil

•   Bloomberg: How Batteries Can Help Power Grids Withstand Heat Waves

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Chips Act Delay in Congress Harms US Semiconductor Position

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Nord Stream turbine stuck in transit as Moscow drags feet on permits-sources

•   Reuters: Putin discusses oil market with Saudi crown prince who hosted Biden last week

•   Reuters: Global manufacturers see chip shortage easing

•   Reuters: U.S. GDP may fall again in Q2. Does it mean recession?

•   Reuters: China says U.S.-led chip alliance should not harm global market

•   Reuters: Oil to fuel growth in Gulf economies this year, but will not sustain pace in 2023

•   Reuters: Exclusive: U.S. probes China's Huawei over equipment near missile silos

•   Reuters: Analysis: R.I.P. forward guidance: Inflation forces central banks to ditch messaging tool

•   Reuters: Analysis: ECB's new tool fails to impress as Italy confronts political paralysis

•   Reuters: Analysis: S.Korea's huge pension fund a local force driving won lower

•   SCMP: Distrust and unease loom as South Koreans grow wary of China’s clout

•   SCMP: Will South Korea’s Indo-Pacific strategy ‘imitate’ US to counter China’s regional influence?

•   SCMP: China snaps up over US$2 billion of Russian LNG as energy trade bucks economic downturn

•   Caixin: China Steps Up Approval of Coal Mining Projects to Secure Supply

•   Nikkei Asia: Made in China 2025' thrives with subsidies for tech, EV makers

•   매경(P1): 연봉 7800만원 직장인, 내년부터 세금 54만원 덜낸다

※   기재부: 2022년 세제개편안 발표

•   매경: 다주택자 '징벌 과세' 푼다…종부세율 4년전 수준으로

•   매경: 마래푸·죽동푸르지오 2주택자, 내년 보유세 3200만원 덜 낸다

•   매경: 물가 뛰어 실질임금 확 줄었는데…대기업 직장인 稅혜택은 '찔끔'

•   매경: 증권거래세 0.15%까지 내린다…현재 0.23%서 단계적 인하

•   매경: 법인세율 낮춰 21조 설비투자 유도…일자리·배당확대 '선순환'

•   매경: 재정 건전성 외치는데, 세수 13조 줄어들어…秋 "감세가 성장촉진"

•   매경: 중견기업 상속세 부담 던다…최대주주 20% 할증 안해

•   매경(P1): "대우조선 파산도 검토"…대주주 산은서 강경론

•   매경: 12조 혈세 쏟아붓고 누적적자 7조…대우조선 파산론 커진다

•   매경: "민노총 물러가라" vs "노조 쇠락할것"…노조원도 두 동강

•   매경: 이 와중에…22일 화물연대 또 농성

•   매경(P1): IPO시장 덮친 복합위기…현대오일뱅크 상장철회

•   매경: 소상공인 대출, 9월 이후도 만기 연장해준다

•   매경: 반도체만 어려운 게 아니었네…OLED 배터리 줄줄이 비상

•   매경: 니켈 구리 원자재값 급락에도…마음껏 못웃는 기업들 사연은

•   매경: 삼성전자, 연산 2배 빠른 '스마트 SSD' 개발

•   한경(P1): 비싼 車 많이 팔았다…현대차, 분기 최대 실적

•   한경: "변이에 효과"…개량 백신 8~9월 나온다

•   서경(P1): 기업 '반도체 유휴 장비' 대학 기증 땐 인센티브

※   산업부: 산업부, 관계부처 합동 반도체 초강대국 달성전략 발표

•   서경: "법인세 낮추면 GDP 늘어…세수 기반 되레 확대"

•   서경: ‘몸값 1조’ 유니콘기업 상반기에만 5곳 추가

•   조선(P1): 권성동 “연금·노동·교육 개혁하자”

•   조선비즈: 포드, LG·SK 배터리 더 산다… 中 CATL과도 공급 계약

•   조선비즈: [단독] 삼성디스플레이, LCD 정리한 자리에 8.5세대 IT용 OLED 라인 증설

•   조선비즈: 경기 침체에도 굳건한 수요… 양극재 기업들 함박웃음

•   조선비즈: [슈퍼달러, 증시는] ①한 달째 이어지는 1300원대 환율, 外人은 ‘바텀 피싱’하지만 기업 이익 악화 우려는 여전

•   조선비즈: [슈퍼달러, 증시는] ②1300원 안착한 원·달러 환율, 수혜株 담아볼까

•   조선비즈: [슈퍼달러, 증시는] ③서학개미도 강달러에 희비…빅테크 울고 유틸리티는 웃고

•   한겨레: “변이에 가짜 음성 나올 수 있는데” 후퇴하는 PCR 허가 기준 왜?

•   한겨레: ‘켄타우로스 변이’ 두번째 감염자, 이미 2주 전에 확진됐다

•   머니투데이(P1): 한화그룹, 방산 부문 통합…"기업가치 제고 위해 검토"

•   아시아경제(P1): 갭투자일수록 깡통전세 위험…수도권까지 확산

•   아시아경제: [위기의 K-반도체]車 반도체 품귀 3년 더 간다는데…만들어보겠단 기업 안보인다

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 6만6491명 확진…1주일 전의 1.79배

•   연합: "한국, 중국 하이테크 수입시장서 1위 대만과 격차 벌어져"

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Michael R. Strain): Cap Russia’s Oil Price Now

•   Project Syndicate(Mohamed A. El-Erian): The Problem with the Current Russia Sanctions Regime

•   Project Syndicate(Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg): Rate Hikes Alone Won't Curb Inflation

•   FT(Gillian Tett): The semiconductor chip pendulum is slowly swinging west

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): Reasons to think differently about inflation

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): The ECB reminds everyone who really has the authority

•   FT(Tony Barber): Italy loses Mario Draghi at perilous moment

•   FT(Richard Waters): Big tech hits the pause button on hiring

•   FT(Tom Mitchell): Why Xi Jinping changed tack in his crackdown on Didi

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): A Test for the European Union in the Balkans

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The U.S. Fights Mexican Energy Abuses

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Senate’s Semiconductor Spending Trick

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Who Will Be Britain’s Next Prime Minister?

•   WSJ(William Nattrass): A Test for the European Union in the Balkans

•   WSJ(Seth G. Jones, Philip G. Wasielewski): Putin’s Deterrence Succeeds as the West Holds Back in Ukraine

•   WSJ(Joel Thayer): On TikTok, It’s All Fun and Games Until China Wants Your Info

•   WSJ(Sidharth Kaushal, Sam Cranny-Evans): Russia’s Aggressive New Nuclear Strategy

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): I Was Wrong About Inflation

•   NYT(Thomas L. Friedman): I Was Wrong About Chinese Censorship

•   NYT(David Brooks): I Was Wrong About Capitalism

•   NYT(Nancy Gibbs): President Biden Has Covid. Now What?

•   WP(Editorial Board): Climate change is a crisis. Invoking emergency powers won’t solve it.

•   WP(Editorial Board): Italy’s latest government crisis is no laughing matter

•   WP(Josh Rogin): China’s ‘zero covid’ policy has been a nightmare for U.S. diplomats

•   WP(Leana S. Wen): Biden’s covid diagnosis is a teaching moment for the country

•   WP(Gregg Gonsalves): The Biden administration’s monkeypox response has been a mess

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): Putin’s War Should Change the Way the World Farms

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): Struggling to Stay Cool? So Is the Generator Powering Your Aircon

•   Bloomberg(Tyler Cowen): Biden’s Covid Diagnosis Is a Wake-Up Call for America

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): ECB's Lagarde Has More at Play, and at Risk, Than the Fed in Rate-Hike Level

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): ECB’s Crisis Plan Fails to Convince Bond Traders

•   Bloomberg(Andy Mukherjee): De-dollarization Gains Momentum Thanks to Southeast Asia's Big Economies

•   Bloomberg(Lionel Laurent): Macron and Scholz Need a Grand Bargain on Energy

•   Bloomberg(Mark Buchanan): High Fossil Fuel Valuations Stop Governments From Tackling Climate Change

•   Bloomberg(Gearoid Reidy): BOJ May Be Ahead of the Curve by Standing Pat on Rates

•   Bloomberg(Richard Cookson): Bank of Japan Should Stop Meddling in Financial Markets

•   Fox Business(Larry Kudlow): We should not imitate China's big government, central planning communism