Global Economic Monitor 220714

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street gulps as U.S. inflation tops 9%, euro pierces parity

※   Highest U.S. inflation since 1981 takes euro to dollar parity

※   Stocks drop, copper at 20-month low on recession concerns

※   Bond markets nursing U.S. curve inversion

•   US: Volatility in Bonds Deepens After Inflation Report

•   Eurozone: Euro falls to parity with US dollar for first time in two decades

※   Rising recession fears and broad shift into haven assets have boosted the buck

※   FT: Euro’s slide towards dollar parity reflects heavier hit from Ukraine war

•   Gasoline: Gas Prices, a Big Inflation Factor, Are Coming Down Sharply

•   Natural gas: European Gas Prices Rise as Nord Stream Works Put Market on Edge

•   Metals: Copper slides to 20-month low on economic slowdown fears

•   Grains: Corn rallies on U.S. weather concerns; soybeans, wheat also rise

•   Cryptocurrency: 韓 기준금리 인상에도…비트코인 올랐다는데

•   한국: 코스피, 한은 사상 첫 '빅스텝'에도 상승 마감…2,320대 회복

[Indicators]

•   US Jun. CPI: U.S. Inflation Hits New Four-Decade High of 9.1%

※   Prices up broadly across the economy, with gasoline far outpacing other categories

※   WSJ: Hot Dogs, Cookies, the Electricity Bill: Prices That Rose the Most in June

※   WSJ: Hot Inflation Report Puts Pressure on Federal Reserve

※   WSJ: Inflation May Have Peaked, but the Fed Won’t Back Off

※   WSJ: Beware Wishful Thinking About Inflation and Recession

※   WP: Five charts explaining why inflation is at a 40-year high

※   Bloomberg: Fed’s Bostic Says June CPI Concerning, ‘Everything in Play’

※   Bloomberg: Inflation Pain Reaches Beyond US Sun Belt as More Cities Top 10%

•   US Jun. Fiscal account: Federal Deficit Narrowed in June as Spending Fell, Receipts Rose

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications(MBA): Demand for big mortgages is shrinking as home prices moderate and expensive houses linger on the market

•   Eurozone May Industrial production: Europe’s Economies Show Resilience as Fresh Energy Threat Looms

•   UK May GDP: UK economy defies forecasts and returns to growth in May

•   China Jun. Balance of trade: China’s Exports Picked Up in June as Logistics Problems Eased

※   Overseas orders to the U.S. and Southeast Asia grew as ports reopened, but economists say such a rebound may not last

•   Japan Jul. Reuters Tankan index: Japan business mood subdued on chip shortage, raw material costs Tankan

•   한국 기준금리한은, 초유의 빅스텝·3회 연속 인상…인플레 불 끄기 '올인'

※   한국은행: 통화정책방향(2022.7.13)

※   매경: 李총재 "물가 4분기 초 정점…당분간 0.25%P씩 금리 인상"

※   매경: 대출금리, 연말엔 7%?…상환부담 더 커진 영끌족 패닉

※   매경: 고금리에 '생계형 대출'도 타격…尹, 서민금융 안정 직접 챙긴다

※   매경: 기업 이자부담 8조 가중…투자 더 쪼그라든다

※   매경: 한은 '빅스텝'에 거래 끊긴 부동산…집값 하락 더 빨라지나

•   한국 6월 고용: 고용시장 정점 찍었나…6월 취업자 84만명↑ 증가폭 둔화

[News]

•   WSJ: U.S. Economy Slows in Several Parts of the Country, Fed’s Beige Book Says

※   Business contacts also raise concerns about possibility of recession

※   Fed: Beige Book - July 13, 2022

•   WSJ: Ukraine Strike on Russian Air-Defense Unit Shows Impact of New Weapons From West

•   WSJ: Russia, Ukraine and Turkey Approach a Deal on Ukraine Grain Exports, Officials Say

※   Russian President Vladimir Putin will have to sign off on the deal; agreement not ‘imminent’

•   WSJ: Global Oil-Supply Crisis Shows Signs of Easing, IEA Says

※   IEA: Oil Market Report - July 2022

•   WSJ: FDA Authorizes Novavax’s Covid-19 Vaccine

•   WSJ: Shanghai Lockdown Concerns Rise Even as Covid Outbreak Eases Across China

•   WSJ: Sri Lanka Imposes State of Emergency After President Flees Country

•   WSJ: Sri Lanka’s Debt Crisis Tests China’s Role as Financier to Poor Countries

•   WSJ: Netflix Partners With Microsoft for New Advertising-Backed Option

•   WSJ: Legal Battle Between Twitter and Elon Musk Centers on Complex Metric

•   WSJ: Google to Slow Hiring for Rest of This Year

•   WSJ: 12 Hours of Misery at Heathrow: Huge Crowds, Lost Bags, Endless Cancellations

•   WSJ: Lufthansa Cancels 2,000 More Flights, Citing Staff Shortages

•   WSJ: Delta Predicts Travel Rebound Will Stretch Past Summer

•   WSJ: Airport Chaos Is a High-Class Problem for Airlines

•   NYT: Nukes, Oil and a Prince’s Redemption: A Trip Fraught With Perils for Biden

•   NYT: Poll Shows Tight Race for Control of Congress as Class Divide Widens

•   NYT: Putin, Looking for Allies, Plans to Meet Leaders of Turkey and Iran

•   NYT: In Divide Over Ukraine, China Stakes a Position Further From U.S.

•   WP: Five reasons why you shouldn’t buy a house right now

•   WP: Biden weighs breaking climate pledges to win Manchin’s support on bill

•   FT: IMF set to make fresh downgrades to global growth

※   IMF: Facing a Darkening Economic Outlook: How the G20 Can Respond

•   FT: Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt become frontrunners in Tory leadership race

※   Ex-chancellor and trade minister will face four other candidates in next round of voting by MPs

•   FT: Global regulator calls for ‘vigilance’ amid confluence of risks

•   FT: Brussels urges EU to turn down heat to resist Russian gas curbs

•   FT: Allies sound alarm over plight of Ukraine’s public finances

•   FT: EU moves to play down tensions over Kaliningrad

•   FT: Russia Gas Standoff Turns ECB Into Sideshow for Currency Market

•   FT: UK economic strategy needs more than tax cuts, warn three reports

•   FT: Gasoline surge pushes up costs for chemicals used in essential goods

•   FT: EU court ruling expands Brussels’ powers to scrutinise tech mergers

•   FT: Why Pfizer’s ‘living with Covid’ pill is not a miracle drug

•   FT: Inside Celsius: how one of crypto’s biggest lenders ground to a halt

•   Bloomberg: Central Banks Rush to Quell Inflation Crisis They Helped Create

•   Bloomberg: Fed Could Weigh Historic 100 Basis-Point Hike After Inflation Scorcher

•   Bloomberg: Soaring US Inflation Hits Factory Workers, Spelling Danger for Democrats in Midterms

•   Bloomberg: Biden ‘Would Not Be Disappointed’ With Trump Rematch in 2024

•   Bloomberg: Biden Says Iranian Military Unit Will Remain on US Terrorist List

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Bostic Says June CPI Concerning, ‘Everything in Play’

•   Bloomberg: Biden Officials Press Congress on Chips Bill as Progress Stalls

•   Bloomberg: Bank of America Economists Forecast Mild US Recession This Year

•   Bloomberg: EU Cuts Euro-Area GDP Forecast, Sees 7.6% Inflation, Draft Shows

•   Bloomberg: EU, US Preparing to Enforce Russian Sanctions, EU Official Says

•   Bloomberg: EU Says Sanctioned Russian Goods Can Transit Bloc Via Train

•   Bloomberg: Italian Government on the Brink With Party Set to Boycott Vote

•   Bloomberg: PBOC Sees Liquidity as Ample in Sign a Rate Cut Is Unlikely

•   Bloomberg: Economists See Waning Urgency for India’s RBI to Do Large Hikes

•   Bloomberg: India Preparing to Submit New Climate Targets to UN in September

•   Bloomberg: Japan PM’s Support Rate Soars After Abe Shooting, Election

•   Bloomberg: Expensive Gasoline Keeps More Summer Drivers Off Road Than at Height of Pandemic

•   Bloomberg: Russia Keeps Traders Guessing on Nord Stream Pipeline’s Return

•   Bloomberg: Germany in Talks With Shell for LNG to Replace Russian Fuel

•   Bloomberg: Shunned in Europe, Russian Fuel Is Flooding to the Middle East

•   Bloomberg: IPhone Maker Backs China Chip Giant After $9 Billion Rescue

•   Bloomberg: India Accuses Chinese Phone Maker of Tax Evasion as Probes Grow

•   Bloomberg: Truckers Protest California Gig-Work Law at Three Key Ports

•   Bloomberg: Bosch to Spend $3 Billion to Bolster European Chip Supplies

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: The Era of Expensive Oil Is Here to Stay

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: The Real Reason Gas Is So Expensive? The US Needs More Refineries

•   Reuters: China Q2 GDP growth seen dipping to 1% on COVID hit, 2022 growth at 4%

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Tesla supplier Panasonic eyes 20% jump in battery density by 2030

•   Reuters: Two-thirds of new renewable power cheaper than coal last year - IRENA

•   Reuters: Analysis: Euro is at parity; its fate is now with energy markets

•   Reuters: Analysis: Euro-dollar parity leaves ECB facing costly choices

•   Reuters: Analysis: Bear market puts ESG investing to its first big test

•   CNBC: Chinese companies are going global as growth slows at home

•   CNBC: No power technology can replace or do the job of nuclear energy today, says Duke Energy CEO

•   SCMP: China heatwave prompts energy curbs for manufacturing hub, but repeat of power crisis unlikely

•   SCMP: Explainer | What you need to know about the Henan banking crisis

•   SCMP: Analysis | How China’s Henan bank scandal threatens a ‘crisis of confidence’ in nation’s financial system

•   Caixin: Homebuyers Stop Making Payments on Delayed Projects

•   Nikkei Asia: Quad members agree to promote hydrogen, ammonia fuel tech

•   Nikkei Asia: Panasonic to build EV battery plant for Tesla in U.S. state of Kansas

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Dramatic final curtain on special Abe-Xi relationship

•   Economic Times: Indian economy to grow 7.1-7.6% in current fiscal: Report

•   Economic Times: Nomura slashes India 2023 GDP forecast to 4.7% as it expects a growth slowdown

•   매경(P1): 이재용 신동빈 사면되나…한덕수 "긍정 검토해야"

•   매경: 한덕수 "국가재정 너무 망가져 상당히 가슴 아파"

•   매경(P1): '확진땐 7일 격리' 유지…입국 다음날까지 PCR 받아야

※   복지부: 코로나19 재유행 대비 방역·의료 대응방안

•   매경: "확진자 8월 중순 20만명"…밀접 접촉한 가족·동료 격리는 안해

•   매경: 50대 치명률 0.04%로 낮아…4차접종 호응 적을 듯

•   매경: 삼성 "정보 털리면 끝"…보안에 年7천억 투입

•   매경: 유튜브 보고 머리 자르는 직장인도…짠내나는 '무지출 챌린지'

•   매경: "점심 굶을수도 없고, 1만원 이하 밥집 어디 없나요"

•   매경: 기름값 무서워 지옥철 탑니다

•   매경: 현대차 직원 평균연봉 1억 돌파…대리 1년차는 8100만원

•   매경: SK하이닉스 노사, 임금 5.5% 인상 합의…월기준급 추가로 10만원 올려

•   매경: 늙어가는 주택…전국 두채 중 한채 20년 넘어

•   매경: "아들, 알바 좀 해야겠다"…치솟은 환율에 학부모 한숨

•   한경(P1): 'R공포'에 움츠러든 기업들…상반기 설비투자 35% 감소

•   한경: 증시 과매도…低PER 종목 속출

•   한경: 상추 대신 청양고추 내놓는 고깃집…"반찬 리필 때마다 심장이 덜컥"

•   한경: 하나 0.9%P·우리 0.8%P↑…예·적금 금리 줄줄이 인상

•   한경: 확 달라진 '독대 업무보고'…바짝 긴장한 관가

•   한경: '수요예측 실패' 가스공사의 꼼수?…"LNG 도입가격 세부내역 비공개"

•   한경: 일진머티리얼즈 인수후보, 롯데 등 4곳

•   한경: 잘나가는 VC·대기업이 콕 찍었다…군침도는 '미래 고기' 시장

•   서경(P1): 국민연금 948조 운용 '비상'…전주·서울 이원체제 급하다

•   서경: [단독] 전력수급 비상에…삼천포화력발전소 재가동 검토

•   서경: 대한상의 3년만에 제주포럼…추경호 "선진국에 없는 규제, 우리도 없앤다"

•   서경: “유류세 인하 체감에 최선” 손실까지 떠안은 정유사

•   서경: K배터리 점유율 하락 틈타…中, 상반기에만 114조 투자 '밀물'

•   서경: [단독] 2년간 매출 12조원 증발…고사위기에 몰린 제조업 근간 ‘뿌리산업’

•   조선(P1): “국제 연대와 혁신으로… 포스트 코로나 준비해야”

•   조선: “한일정상 8월 안에는 만나야... 징용·위안부 한번에 풀려 하지 마라”

•   조선: 尹 “경제안보 시대 대비, 국제사회와 반도체 공급망 구축”

•   조선: “한미동맹 유지만 해선 안돼… 민주국가들과 국방·경제협력 강화를”

•   조선: 폼페이오 “김정은·푸틴 경험 많고 잔혹... 절대 과소평가 말아야”

•   조선: “정치가 경제 억누르면 위기극복 어려워… 규제 풀어 혁신 끌어내야”

•   조선: 심야 택시대란에 “차라리 외박”

•   조선: 무역상대국 생산자물가 1%p 뛰면, 국내 물가 0.24%p 상승

•   조선: 하위 20% 가구, 자산의 42%가 전월세 보증금

•   조선비즈: 테슬라, 현대차도 주목한 이것은… 전기차 시대 부상하는 SiC 반도체

•   조선비즈: 또 줄어든 해외건설수주… 韓 기업 해외 공장 의존만 커져

•   조선비즈: “수소 세계 1등” 尹대통령 공약에도…“세수 감소 때문에 곤란” 파격적 세제 지원 ‘딜레마’

•   조선비즈: [단독] 현대차 ERP 시스템 ‘먹통’… 생산 차질 ‘설상가상’

•   인베스트조선: 매크로 불확실성에 하반기 韓기업 신용도 부정적…자동차부품·의류 '취약'

•   인베스트조선: "시간은 우리 편"…기업들 눈높이 낮출 때까지 '개점휴업' 선언한 FI들

•   중앙: “회식 자제” “출근 전 문진”…코로나 재확산에 기업 초긴장

•   중앙: 카카오 “아웃링크 앱결제 없앨게” 두달만에 구글에 백기

•   동아: 테크기업 선호 강남 오피스 품귀… 전통기업, 사무실 못구해 이사

•   문화: 뻥튀기 수요예측에 무료운영까지… 시작부터 끝까지 ‘비정상’

•   문화: 자율주행차, 美 ‘레벨4’ 가는데… 韓선 ‘레벨3’도 임시

•   한국(P1): "기후위기 참상" 유럽 대홍수 1년...땅은 오염되고 무너진 다리·학교 그대로

•   한국: 최악 전력 수급 위기 대비한 '히든카드', 예비전력 9.2GW는 어디서 왔나

•   국민: 출퇴근도 복지? 출근해야 효율?… 脫사무실 시대 기업들 고민

•   서울(P1): [단독] 칩4 동참하라는 美… 8월까지 확답 요구

•   서울: [단독] 미중 대결 넘어 日·대만까지 얽힌 ‘반도체 전쟁’… 또 머리 아픈 한국

•   머니투데이: 현대차 국내 전기차 공장 신설 발표에 배터리 업계도 증설 나서나

•   머니투데이: 2050년까지 뭐하러 기다려?…RE100 조기달성 노리는 기업들

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 기업 자금난 대비 회사채 추가 매입

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 반도체 업황 불황에… DB하이텍도 삼성도 파운드리 분사설

•   아시아경제(P1): 임대차법 2년 후폭풍…임대차 계약 분쟁 손배 신청 최다

•   디지털타임스(P1): 코로나후 풀린 돈… 물가 급등 불렀다

•   디지털타임스: 세계 디스플레이 설비 가동률 69%… 10년來 최저

•   디지털타임스: 판매 반토막났어요… 스마트폰 판매 초비상

•   디지털타임스: 업계 96% 반대… "장시간 노동 부르는 포괄임금제 폐지해야"

•   이데일리(P1): 내 월급빼곤 다 올라서 핸드폰을 열었다

•   이데일리(P1): 기업 활동 옥죄는 경제형벌 대수술

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 3만8051명 확진…어제보다 683명 적어

•   전자신문(P1): 애플 메타버스(XR) 기기, 내년 초 출시...부품 생태계 확장

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]한달 앞 삼성 언팩, 미리보는 갤럭시Z 폴드4

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]갤럭시워치·버즈 신제품 '프로' 무장

•   전자신문: 삼성D, 3분기 스마트폰 OLED 1억4500만대 공급한다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Shang-Jin Wei, Tao Wang): The Inflationary Consequences of Deglobalization

•   Project Syndicate(Ruby Osman, Jacob Delorme): Putin’s Global Food Crisis

•   FT(Editorial Board): Sri Lanka’s woes are a warning to other developing nations

•   FT(Mohamed El-Erian): US inflation surge signals tough times ahead

•   FT(Ethan Wu): Will recession kill inflation?

•   FT(Alan Beattie): No, the global economy is not breaking into geopolitical blocs

•   FT(Lex): Wheat: supply crunch remains threat to commodity prices

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Biden’s Hiring Policy: No Business Experience Needed

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Incredible Falling Euro Nears Dollar Parity

•   WSJ(Karen Elliott House): Saudi Arabia Prepares to Host a Humbled Joe Biden

•   NYT(Peter Coy): The Dollar Has Muscled Higher While the Euro Lost Ground

•   NYT(Yasmine Farouk): Joe Biden Has a Saudi Problem

•   WP(Editorial Board): Biden’s offshore drilling plan won’t make or break his climate agenda

•   WP(Max Boot): Trump allowed Iran to go nuclear, but Biden will get the blame

•   WP(Leana S. Wen): BA.5 should not change how Americans think about living with covid

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): For Korea and New Zealand, Reacting Early to Inflation May Not Be Good Enough

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): The Euro’s Drop Below $1 Means a More Hawkish ECB

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): Europe's Heat Wave Is Bad for Energy Prices, But the Drought Is Worse

•   Bloomberg(Matthew A. Winkler): Inflation Alarm Bells Are Actually Getting Softer

•   Bloomberg(Brooke Sutherland): Industrial Slowdown Doesn't Look Too Frightening

•   Bloomberg(Bobby Ghosh): Biden Should Call Off Iran Nuclear Talks

•   Bloomberg(Kevin Muir): The Cost of Taming Inflation Will Be Exorbitant

•   MarketWatch(Peter Morici): A recession can be avoided if Americans accept 4% inflation

•   MarketWatch(David Rundell, Michael Gfoeller): Is Biden making a mistake by going to Saudi Arabia?