Global Economic Monitor 220713

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street tumbles at close as worries mount ahead of CPI report

※   Treasury yield inversion stokes recession worries

※   Boeing jumps, deliveries reach highest monthly level in 3 years

※   Gap slides on CEO exit, outlook

※   Indexes fall: Dow 0.62%, S&P 0.92%, Nasdaq 0.95%

•   Oil: Oil Falls to Three-Month Low as Recession Fears Spook Market

•   Metals: China ramp-up sends aluminum prices to 14-month lows

•   Grains: Futures plunge after USDA raises supply outlook, trims some demand

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Drops for a Fourth Day, Falling Back Below $20,000 Level

•   한국: 코스피, 경기 침체·코로나 재확산 우려 등에 2,310대로 하락

•   한국: 한은 빅스텝 앞두고…달러당 원화값 1312원 '연중최저'

[Indicators]

•   US Jun. NFIB Business optimism index: U.S. small business sentiment drops near 9-1/2-year low in June, NFIB says

•   US Jun.Adobe digital price index: Online US Inflation Slowed in June But Food Prices Hit New High

•   Germany Jul. ZEW economic sentiment: German Investor Confidence Sinks to Worst Since Debt Crisis

•   UK Jun. Retail sales: UK retail sales fall as inflation hits consumers

•   Japan Jun. PPI: Japan's June wholesale inflation at 9.2% as imports see record surge

•   India Jun. CPI: India June Inflation Elevated at 7% on Higher Food, Fuel Prices

•   India Jun. Industrial production: IIP surges to 12-month high of 19.6% in May

•   한국 5월 통화 및 유동성: 5월 통화량 30조원↑… 안전자산으로 ‘역머니무브’ 가속

•   한국 6월 가계대출: 상반기 가계대출 8년 만에 첫 감소세…전년 동기보다 8천억 줄어

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukraine Hits Military Depot in Russian-Controlled City

※   Russia-appointed officials say seven were killed in attack on ammunition depot in Nova Kakhovka, in southern Ukraine

•   WSJ: U.S. Steps Up Pacific Engagement to Challenge China’s Clout

•   WSJ: Housing Could Provide More Fuel for Inflation

•   WSJ: Treasury Nominee Pressed on Global Tax Deal, China Tariffs, Inflation

•   WSJ: OPEC Oil Output Lags Behind Targets Despite Pledges to Boost Supplies

※   OPEC: MOMR July 2022

•   WSJ: Switzerland, Playground of Russian Oligarchs, Emerges as Sanctions Weak Link

•   WSJ: PC Shipments Suffer Steepest Decline in Years

•   WSJ: Microsoft and Gopuff Are Latest Tech Firms to Cut Jobs

•   WSJ: Renault Says Sales Fell 30% Following Withdrawal From Russia Market

•   WSJ: Union Organizing Efforts Rise in First Half of Year

•   WSJ: Microsoft Goes on Offensive in Europe to Combat Cloud Concerns

•   WSJ: Twitter Sues Elon Musk Over Attempt to Walk Away From $44 Billion Deal

•   WSJ: The Elon Musk-Twitter Deal Saga: What’s Happened So Far

•   WSJ: Five Signs Workers Still Have Power in This Job Market

•   WSJ: Silicon Valley Bets on New Transport to Counter the Rise of Remote Work

•   NYT: Russia Steps Up Attacks on Civilian Areas, Even With Advance Paused

•   NYT: Ukraine’s Demands for More Weapons Clash With U.S. Concerns

•   NYT: The pandemic remains a global health emergency, the W.H.O. says.

※   “Covid-19 is nowhere near over,” the agency’s director general declared.

•   NYT: Biden Administration May Offer Second Coronavirus Boosters to All Adults

•   NYT: As BA.5 spreads, the White House warns that Covid is not over.

•   NYT: Putin’s Oil War With the West Comes at His Allies’ Expense

•   NYT: Advanced E.V. Batteries Move From Labs to Mass Production

•   NYT: Robots Aren’t Done Reshaping Warehouses

•   WP: Move faster to help global food crisis, senators urge

•   WP: Uber Files put Macron’s neoliberalism in the spotlight

•   WP: The euro is equal to the dollar. Here’s why it matters.

•   FT: Nato and EU sound alarm over risk of Ukraine weapons smuggling

•   FT: Households of the world — consume!

•   FT: Europe’s economic outlook to worsen amid gas supply disruptions

•   FT: UK ministers push ahead with plans to tear up post-Brexit trade deal

•   FT: Bailey pledges to bring UK inflation back down to 2% target

•   FT: Wall Street recession fears stoked by patchy US economic data

•   FT: Biden’s ‘climate presidency’ is on the line

•   FT: Shinzo Abe’s death gives Fumio Kishida a chance to make his mark

•   FT: Tunisia’s scarred economy dealt further blow by war in Ukraine

•   FT: America’s new agricultural frontier: vertical farms

•   Bloomberg: IMF Cuts US Growth Forecasts, Raises Jobless Estimates on Inflation Risks

※   Fund now sees unemployment rate exceeding 5% in 2024, 2025

※   IMF: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2022 Article IV Consultation with the United States

•   Bloomberg: Biden’s Woes at Home Loom Over Mideast Trip That’s All About Oil

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Barkin Open to Raising by 50 or 75 Basis Points in July

•   Bloomberg: Fresh US Inflation Peak to Keep Fed on Aggressive Rate Path

•   Bloomberg: There’s No US Recession Until an Obscure Panel of ‘Eggheads’ Says It Is So

•   Bloomberg: Trump’s GOP Grip Slips With 46% in Poll Seeking 2024 Nominee

•   Bloomberg: French Economy Shows Resilience Amid Record Inflation, Ukraine War

•   Bloomberg: EU Gives Green Light to Croatia Adopting Euro in Early 2023

•   Bloomberg: EU's Turn to Coal Means Tougher Emissions Cut Later to Reach Net-Zero

•   Bloomberg: UK Recession Threat Is Now Almost 50-50 for Economists

•   Bloomberg: China’s Imports of Key Commodities Set to Make a Patchy Recovery on Growing Mobility

•   Bloomberg: Xi’s Covid Authoritarianism Meets Red Line at Vaccine Mandates

•   Bloomberg: Anger in Shanghai as Covid Return Spurs Fear of New Lockdown

•   Bloomberg: China Offshore Defaults at Record While Local Delinquencies Drop

•   Bloomberg: India’s RBI Signals Policy Won’t Sacrifice Growth Too Much

•   Bloomberg: Myanmar and Russia Ink Pact on Nuclear Energy Cooperation

•   Bloomberg: Sri Lanka’s Bailout Slips Further Away as Nation Misses a Leader

•   Bloomberg: China’s Plunging Markets Flash Fresh Warning Signs on Economy

•   Bloomberg: Markets Plan Doomsday Scenarios If Russia Turns Off the Gas

•   Bloomberg: Euro Buyers Fend Off Dollar Parity in Last-Gasp Defense

•   Bloomberg: What If? Markets Plan Doomsday If Russia Turns Off the Gas

•   Bloomberg: Yellen Shows No Willingness to Consider Intervention for Yen

•   Bloomberg: Japan Shouldn’t Intervene Over Yen Now, Former FX Chief Warns

•   Bloomberg: US Cuts Gasoline-Demand Forecast as High Prices Weigh on Drivers

•   Bloomberg: US Believes OPEC Has More Capacity to Raise Crude Production

•   Bloomberg: Rivian Job Cut Is Just the Latest in Gloomy-Looking Car Sector

•   Reuters: Trump incited Jan. 6 attack after 'unhinged' White House meeting, panel told

•   Reuters: U.S. CPI preview: Past the headline, into the core

•   Reuters: Biden approval rating rises modestly from record low -Reuters/Ipsos

•   Reuters: Eight candidates make cut in race to succeed UK PM Johnson

•   Reuters: Saudi Arabia's powerful prince unbowed by Western uproar

•   Reuters: Computer chips face toilet paper hoarding moment as shortage turns to glut

•   Reuters: Analysis: Volatile U.S. markets boost appeal of dividend stocks

•   CNBC: Covid hospitalizations have doubled since May as omicron BA.5 sweeps U.S., but deaths remain low

•   CNBC: Global shipping wants to go green. But a lack of fuel is derailing its best-laid plans

•   MarketWatch: Stock market faces big inflation test: Here are ‘the good, the bad and the ugly’ ways it could play out

•   Fox Business: Severe recession needed to cool inflation, Bank of America analysts say

•   SCMP: China debt: local governments target amateur investors in new round of risky credit expansion

•   SCMP: China to buy Xinjiang cotton, but state stockpiling won’t save mills from massive losses amid US ban

•   SCMP: China ‘not to blame’ for African debt crisis, it’s the West: study

•   Caixin: Chinese Chipmaker Tsinghua Unigroup Completes Bankruptcy Reorganizatio

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan after Abe: Political stability under threat?

•   Nikkei Asia: Tokyo logs over 11,500 new COVID cases, highest since March

•   Nikkei Asia: China closes in on Japan's hydrogen technology patent lead

•   Economic Times: Economic outlook for FY23 hinges on private consumption, investment demand: Report

•   매경(P1): "도요타 셧다운 당했다"…현대차도 비상, 왜?

•   매경(P1): 文정부때 마구 늘린 공무원…5년간 동결한다

•   매경: 마이크론 히로시마공장 정전…D램 가격 반등 청신호 켜졌다

•   매경: "아이폰14 OLED 패널, 삼성·LG가 95% 공급"

•   매경: 보트도 자율운항…장애물 피하고 항로도 '척척'

•   매경: "무제한 용량이라고 홍보할 땐 언제고"…클라우드 돈 내라는 구글

•   매경: 지자체 물가전쟁, 공공요금부터 '동결'

•   매경: 거세지는 夏鬪…금속노조 20일 총파업

•   한경(P1): 현대차, 29년 만에 국내 새 공장 짓는다…정의선의 결단

•   한경: 기본·성과급 역대급 인상…현대차 4년째 無파업 합의

•   한경(P1): 티빙-시즌 합병 나선다…국내 최대 규모 OTT 탄생

•   한경: 개미 가려운 곳 긁어주는 독립리서치…"주식 리딩방 취급 기막혀"

•   한경: 하락장에도…국내 증권사 '팔아라' 0.1%뿐

•   한경: "연금 몇만원 더 받으려다 건보료 폭탄"…국민연금 추가 납입 중단 속출

•   한경: 세율 인하 대신…소득세 '중·하위 구간' 과표 올릴 듯

•   한경: 재산세 고지서에 '화들짝'…6억 이하 1주택자 "뒤통수 맞았다"

•   한경: 영화관람료도 소득공제 해준다

•   한경: 하청노조 파업에 휘청이는 대우조선해양

•   한경: 원자재값 고공행진…대형 건설사 '실적 눈높이' 뚝

•   한경: 삼성 '메타버스 실험실' 열었다

•   한경: MZ세대 '핫플'의 눈물…"임대 수익률 1%" 매물 쏟아졌다

•   서경(P1): 첨단산업 인재 14만명 키운다

※   산업부: (참고자료)｢새정부 산업통상자원 정책방향｣ 업무보고

•   서경: 53건 규제 풀어 337조 투자 물꼬…"민간 주도로 '저성장 벽' 돌파"

•   서경: 초격차 스타트업 1000개 키운다

•   서경: [시그널] VC는 자산 60%까지 해외투자 허용하면서…대기업은 20% 제한 '역차별'

•   서경: [단독]"한해 이자만 5000억"…'회복 불능' 석유공사, 정부에 SOS

•   서경: "폰 대신 네트워크"…LG전자, 5G모듈 개발 속도전

•   서경: 정치권 “5G중간요금제 비싸다"…업계 “정부 요구사항 부합" 당혹

•   서경: 폐기냐, 추진이냐…지자체 '트램 동상이몽'

•   조선(P1): “BA.5, 인간 공격한 바이러스 중 전파력 가장 세다”

•   조선: 취임사나 회의 발언에서 사자성어 사라지는 官街

•   조선비즈: 올해 직장인 여름휴가 평균 3.6일… 휴가비 주는 기업은 감소

•   조선비즈: 글로벌 컨테이너선 주문 역대 최대… 韓 조선 일감도 ‘쑥’

•   조선비즈: 반도체 강국의 그림자, 소재 해외 의존도 높아… 수입 비중 日 35%·中 24%

•   조선비즈: ‘1유로=1달러’ 만든 달러 독주, 한미 통화스와프로 막는다?…“우물가에서 숭늉 찾나”

•   조선비즈: 상반기 생애 첫 주택 구매자 ‘10년 만에 최저’… 1년새 ‘극과극’

•   조선비즈: 코로나19 특수 ‘끝’ LCD 넘치는 재고에… LGD 20%, 中 최대 50% 감산

•   중앙(P1): [단독] 외면받는 지방근무, 외국인 채운다…지역 특화비자 신설

•   중앙: [단독]"공정위=친기업" 尹 철학…그를 격노시킨 보름전 보도

•   동아(P1): 전세계 ‘금융위기급’ 환율 쇼크… 한은, 오늘 사상 첫 빅스텝 유력

•   동아: 한미 통화스와프 재개 기대감… “논의 테이블에 있는듯”

•   동아: 기업 3곳중 1곳 “3高 경제위기 내년 하반기까지”

•   문화: 민간건설도 ‘자재비 물가연동’검토… 시공사는 난색

•   한국(P1): [단독] 세종에 대통령 임시 집무실 안 만든다... '균형발전 공약' 퇴색

•   한국: 철강업계 "후판가 올려야" VS 조선업계 "내려야" 뜨거운 여름 신경전 시작됐다

•   국민: “주휴수당이 더 문제, 어떻게 다 줘요” 임금 논쟁 확산

•   서울: 한미, 반도체 이어 ‘배터리 동맹’… 옐런, LG화학 찾아 협력 모색

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 쌍용차 사려던 에디슨모터스 매물로 나왔다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 수도권 건설현장 10곳 골조공사 중단 지속

•   아시아경제(P1): [빚더미 황혼①] 60대 이상 채무조정·파산 증가율 1위

•   아시아경제: [빚더미 황혼②]초고령화 사회 속…노후 부채, 사회 부실 뇌관으로

•   아시아경제: [빚더미 황혼③]"고령층 파산, 향후 10년은 증가세" 사회안전망·노후대비 필요

•   디지털타임스(P1): 20년만에 `1달러=1유로`… 對유럽 수출경쟁력 악재

•   이데일리(P1): “1년새 월세 100만원 올랐다”…확 커진 주거비에 '렌트푸어' 전락

•   이데일리: 월세 내다 지친 세입자…전세→내 집 '주거 사다리'마저 끊겼다

•   이데일리: `임대차법` 개편 밑그림나왔는데…巨野 걸림돌 넘을까

•   이데일리: 2년만에 부활 꿈틀 '아파트 임대사업'…전월세난 잡을 카드될까

•   이데일리: [단독]고용부, 주 52시간 근로제 실태조사 나선다

•   이데일리: 이미 평균치에 도달한 대차잔고·공매도…금지 정책 효과 있을까

•   이데일리: 금융위도 공매도 금지 시사…전면 재개 언제쯤?

•   이데일리: "급격한 경기침체 가능성 낮다…달러 올라도 상반기 만큼 아냐"

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 3만8734명 확진…어제보다 2929명 많아

•   연합: 세계 무역 시장에 전쟁·긴축 찬바람…한국은 이미 '비상'

•   연합: 국민연금, 올해 들어 보유 주식가치 30조원 급감

•   전자신문: 반도체 PCB 기판 '역대급 호황'…엔저·고환율 수혜도 '톡톡'

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Mohamed A. El-Erian): Mohamed A. El-Erian Says More…

•   Project Syndicate(Sébastien Mazella, Alex Friedman): Private Equity’s ESG Generation

•   Project Syndicate(Brahma Chellaney): The Fall of the House of Rajapaksa

•   Project Syndicate(Takatoshi Ito): Abe Shinzō’s Unmatched Legacy

•   Project Syndicate(Yi Fuxian): Why Is the Uyghur Population Shrinking?

•   Project Syndicate(Jayati Ghosh): Achieving Earth for All

•   FT(Martin Wolf): Inflation is a political challenge as well as an economic one

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): The case for T-bills and patience

•   FT(Jean Chia): China’s contrasting path offers the potential for uncorrelated returns

•   FT(Karina Robinson): Companies cannot afford to be left behind in the quantum revolution

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Germany’s Nuclear-Power Implosion

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Donald Trump and the Midterms

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Never-Ending Covid Emergency

•   WSJ(James Freeman): Dobbs and the Economy

•   WSJ(Jillian Kay Melchior): The West Leaves Ukraine Outgunned Against Russia

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Crypto Is Crashing. Where Were the Regulators?

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): The Humbug Economy

•   NYT(Thomas L. Friedman): The Ukraine War Is About to Enter a Dangerous New Phase

•   NYT(Michelle Goldberg): Joe Biden Is Too Old to Be President Again

•   WP(Catherine Rampell): If pols can’t make inflation better, they should at least stop making it worse

•   WP(John R. Bolton): Biden’s scheme to cap oil prices reflects his incoherent Russia policy

•   WP(Jennifer Rubin): The economic outlook might not be that gloomy after all

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Housing Inventories May Not Save Prices After All

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): Fed Is Not Falling Into an Emerging Markets Trap. Not Even Close

•   Bloomberg(Karl W. Smith): More Stimulus? Biden Should Know That's a Bad Idea

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Bernstein): What It Would Take for Democrats to Dump Biden

•   Bloomberg(Maria Tadeo): The Uber Files Show Just How Far Macron and EU Have Come on Tech Giants

•   Bloomberg(Richard Cookson): Japan's Lack of Inflation Is Tied to Loose Monetary Policy

•   MarketWatch(Michael Splinter, Jonathan Greenert): Semiconductors are too important for our economy and security to let partisan spats in Congress derail popular legislation

•   Fox Business(Larry Kudlow): We're on the front end of recession