Global Economic Monitor 220719

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks edge up, dollar dips as Fed hike expectations lessened

※   Bank stocks give up early gains

※   Dollar dips on Fed hike view

※   Oil jumps on Russian supply worries

•   Natural gas: European Gas Slips With Focus on Russia’s Nord Stream Link

•   Metals: Copper bounces on short-covering as China supports property sector

•   Grains: Corn, soy, wheat futures climb on broad commodity strength, U.S. weather

•   한국: 코스피, 외인 매수에 1.9%↑…13거래일만에 2,370선 회복

•   한국: '한국 증시 바닥' 힘 실리나…외국인, 사흘간 1조 넘게 샀다

[Indicators]

•   US Jul. NAHB housing market index: US Homebuilder Sentiment Gauge Falls to Lowest Since May 2020

•   한국 상반기 펀드시장 동향: 주식·채권 떠난 돈 MMF로 몰린다

•   한국 3분기 소매유통업 경기전망지수: 살아나던 소매유통 체감경기, 편의점 빼고 모두 ‘흐림’

[News]

•   WSJ: Housing Boom Fades World-Wide as Interest Rates Climb

•   WSJ: Foreign Purchases of U.S. Homes Fall to New Low

•   WSJ: Diverging Jobs Data Raise Questions About Labor Market Health

•   WSJ: Tech Bill Aims to Block U.S. Aid for Companies That Build Advanced Chips in China

•   WSJ: Russia Orders Troops to Target Ukraine’s Western-Supplied Long-Range Weapons

•   WSJ: EU Seeks to Quell Criticism of Its Russia Sanctions

•   WSJ: Chinese Export Hubs Order Mass Covid-19 Testing, Raising Risk of Lockdowns

•   WSJ: Recession Fears, Trade Shifts Whipsaw Global Grain Markets

•   WSJ: Dr. Copper’s Patients Are All Ill

•   WSJ: Madcap Markets Push Goldman Sachs To Higher Trading Revenue, but Profit Falls

•   WSJ: IBM Second-Quarter Earnings Advance on 9% Sales Growth

•   WSJ: GE’s Latest Invention? ‘Vernova,’ the New Name for Its Power Business

•   WSJ: Air Travel Is Broken. Here’s Why.

•   NYT: Covid Rises Across U.S. Amid Muted Warnings and Murky Data

•   NYT: This Pioneering Economist Says Our Obsession With Growth Must End

•   NYT: 3 takeaways from big banks’ latest financial reports.

•   FT: EU to call on member states to ‘immediately’ slash gas usage

※   Brussels to set out voluntary fuel reduction targets that may become mandatory if energy crisis worsens

•   FT: Russian gas cuts threaten to shutter Germany industry

•   FT: The curious incident of the gas and the turbines

•   FT: EU’s chief diplomat expects Ukraine grain deal ‘this week’ to unblock supplies

•   FT: ‘Climate change shoved in our face’ — Europe wrestles with heatwave and forest fires

•   FT: Europe’s defence sector: will war in Ukraine transform its fortunes?

•   FT: Italian political upheaval provides test of ECB’s resolve

•   FT: Britain feels the heat as it braces for record 40C temperatures

•   FT: UK chancellor sets out commitment to tackling inflation

•   FT: Three reasons to think Trump will run again in 2024

•   FT: Yellen Says Oil-Cap Plan Blunts Concerns Over Russian Reprisals

•   FT: Yellen Touts ‘Friend-Shoring’ as Fix for Global Supply Chains

•   FT: Imran Khan demands early elections after dominating Punjab poll

•   FT: The ECB’s New Bond Tool May Be Tested Sooner Than Expected

•   FT: Airbus climbs past Boeing in single-aisle market share

•   FT: Russian supply concerns weigh on plane makers’ Covid recovery

•   FT: Ant Group expands global ambitions despite troubles at home

•   FT: SoftBank halts work on Arm’s London IPO following political turmoil

•   FT: Energy crisis prompts ESG rethink on oil and gas

•   FT: Rising green bond issuance erodes premiums

•   FT: Surging demand for cobalt spurs hunt for mineral in Australia’s mine waste

•   Bloomberg: Quarles Says Fed Should Have Hiked Rates Before Taper Finished

•   Bloomberg: Remote Work Fueled US Productivity Growth During Pandemic, Study Says

•   Bloomberg: Russian Gas Supply Halt Risks 1.5% Cut to EU’s GDP in Worst Case

•   Bloomberg: The ECB Case for a Half-Point Rate Hike Just Won’t Go Away

•   Bloomberg: Sunak, Mordaunt Lead Latest Vote in Race to Succeed Johnson

•   Bloomberg: UK Interest Rates Likely to Rise Above 2%, BOE’s Saunders Says

•   Bloomberg: British Household Spending Fell Most Since 2008 During Pandemic

•   Bloomberg: Europe Power Firms’ Debt Soars to $1.7 Trillion on Energy Crisis

•   Bloomberg: UK Labor Shortages May Cost Economy £30 Billion a Year, REC Says

•   Bloomberg: From Property to Lockdowns, What to Watch in China’s Second Half

•   Bloomberg: China Weighs Mortgage Grace Period to Appease Angry Homebuyers

•   Bloomberg: China Risks Hard Landing of Housing Sector, Ex-Official Warns

•   Bloomberg: Why the US Dollar Is Booming and Creating a Possible Doom Loop

•   Bloomberg: Russia Raises July Oil Output as Domestic Refineries Ramp Up

•   Bloomberg: Russia's Oil Deliveries to China and India Are 30% Below Peak

•   Bloomberg: Russia’s Wheat Exports Are Off to Flying Start With Bumper Crop

•   Bloomberg: US Pulls Plug on Fertilizer Trade War as Food Inflation Bites

•   Bloomberg: China’s New Iron Ore Giant to Manage Global Supply and Simandou

•   Bloomberg: Russia Ban Seen Tightening Coal Market That’s Already Surging

•   Bloomberg: Apple to Slow Hiring and Spending for Some Teams Next Year

※   Apple’s tech rivals take similar steps as recession looms

•   Bloomberg: Amazon Warehouse Sites Probed for Potential Workplace Hazards

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: The US Is Exporting Inflation, and Fed Hikes Will Make It Worse

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Russia's Gazprom tells Europe gas halt beyond its control

※   Russia's Gazprom has told customers in Europe it cannot guarantee gas supplies because of 'extraordinary' circumstances

•   Reuters: Putin: West cannot isolate Russia and send it back in time

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Russia seeking oil payments from India in dirhams

•   Reuters: Putin visits Iran for first trip outside former U.S.S.R. since Ukraine war

•   Reuters: The hike is (almost) here! Now for what comes next: Five questions for the ECB

•   Reuters: Bolsonaro attacks Brazil's election system in briefing of diplomats

•   Reuters: Chip designers warm to U.S. bill despite big benefits to Intel

•   Reuters: Solid-state EV batteries could cut carbon emissions further, says climate group

•   Reuters: Explainer: How much extra oil can Saudi Arabia pump?

•   Reuters: ANALYSIS-As 1.5C warming limit nears, interest in sun-dimming tech heats up

•   AP: Economics of war: Pain for Europe now, later for Russia

•   CNBC: Biden’s economic approval rating falls to new low on fear about inflation, CNBC survey finds

•   CNBC: China holdings of U.S. debt fall below $1 trillion for the first time since 2010

•   CNBC: Could Russia’s war on Ukraine escalate into a global cyberwar?

•   CNBC: Russia’s Ukraine offensive now relying on a private mercenary group that’s hiring convicts, UK says

•   CNBC: Smartphone shipments fell 9% in Q2, but Apple iPhone remains in high demand despite inflation pressure

•   MarketWatch: Why this ugly S&P 500 streak cautions against chasing bear-market bounces

•   SCMP: Is strained China-US relationship spiralling towards a Thucydides Trap scenario?

•   SCMP: Exclusive | China asks European leaders to meet Xi in November. But will they accept?

•   SCMP: Economic boon or security threat? American city torn over Chinese milling project

•   SCMP: China, South Korea tech competition and US-led bloc have Seoul scrambling to prevent leaks but protect trade

•   SCMP: Asian foreign-currency bond issuance falls to four-year low amid Chinese developers’ woes, US rate rises

•   SCMP: China electric-car makers BYD, Xpeng, Li Auto, Nio stand to benefit as lower loan rates recharge sales after Covid-19 woes

•   SCMP: A fifth of Chinese developers face insolvency as investors grow tired of repeated bond extensions, S&P Global warns

•   SCMP: Henan bank crisis savers must ‘wait patiently’ for compensation amid systemic risk, social instability concerns

•   SCMP: As China’s youth unemployment keeps rising, Beijing says regional governments need to step up

•   SCMP: China GDP: why red-hot inflation could slow Beijing’s bid to unseat the US as world’s No 1 economy

•   Global Times: EU should care for own interests, not to be 'exploited by US': Chinese experts

•   Caixin: Exclusive: China Close to Setting Up Iron Ore Trading Giant

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan-South Korea meeting leaves historical sore spots open

•   Nikkei Asia: Russia's nuclear fuel dominance impedes Western energy independence

•   Nikkei Asia: Battery makers seek price hikes on lack of Russia rare metals

•   Nikkei Asia: China startup makes large, flexible solar panels in industry first

•   Economic Times: Morgan Stanley cuts FY23 GDP estimate by 0.40%; expects FY24 growth to slow down to 6.4%

•   Economic Times: Q1 GDP growth seen at 14-15% on services' revival

•   매경(P1): 조합 없이도 도심 재개발 허용…역세권 주택공급 늘린다

•   매경: 민간 재개발사업 인허가 기간 1년 이상 줄여준다

•   매경(P1): 법무·행안장관도 '대우조선 사태' 최후경고

•   매경: "불법행위 끝내라"…정부, 공권력 투입 시사

•   매경(P1): 'K대체식' 214조 세계시장 홀린다

•   매경(P1): [알립니다] 위기 너머 '초과회복' 향한 캐머런·크루그먼의 혜안

•   매경: 신냉전·인플레·우주산업…세계지식포럼 6대 관전포인트

•   매경: "배달로봇에 사람 따라다니라니"…이런 황당 규제도

•   매경: 덴마크 '전기펑펑' 건물 퇴출…전력인증 못 받으면 세도 못 놔

•   매경: 관광명소 '인어공주' 뒤 화력발전소…냄새·오염물 없이 24시간 전력생산

•   매경: 풍력강국 덴마크 만든 민관 '녹색협력'

•   매경: 삼성전자, 3나노 고객 확보 쉽지않네

•   매경: 환율방어 만병통치약?…통화스왑에 쏠린 눈

•   매경: "경유값 비싼데 누가 찾나"…디젤車 개발 중단 수순

•   한경(P1): "원자력, 녹색에너지에 포함"…'탈원전 백지화' 작업 잰걸음

•   한경: '원전=친환경' 못 박아…원전업계, 자금조달·수출 탄력받는다

•   한경(P1): '빅스텝' 밟자 월세가 대세 됐다

•   한경(P1): '진격의 삼바'…7조 들여 송도에 제2 바이오캠퍼스 짓는다

•   한경: 축산업계 "대체육 단어 쓰지 말라, 생계 위협받고 있어"

•   한경: 공정위 조사 거부해도 징역·벌금형 안받는다

•   한경: 정황근 "추석 지나면 농식품 물가 10~20% 떨어질 것"

•   한경: 윤석열 정부 노동개혁 첫발 뗐지만…주52시간·호봉제 개편 '첩첩산중'

•   한경: "3년 뒤면 없앤다더니"…일몰규제 9200개 중 폐지는 고작 2.9%

•   한경: 카카오모빌리티 매각 놓고 '평행선'

•   한경: 개발자 빨아들이는 IT업계…中企는 속수무책

•   한경: 조합장 사퇴에도…"둔촌주공 공사 재개 힘들다"

•   한경: 탄소 붙잡아 지하에 '봉인'…화석연료와 슬기로운 동거

•   한경: 가전·반도체가 안 팔린다…고민 커진 삼성·LG

•   서경(P1): 심야 승차난 해소…'플랫폼 택시 탄력요금제' 나온다

•   서경: 지금도 4배 더 받는데…요금 더 올려 택시난 잡는다

•   서경(P1): 김주현-이창용 첫 회동…외환·증시 선제 대응한다

•   서경: 내달 '모빌리티 혁신 로드맵' 마련…UAM·자율차 상용화 앞당긴다

•   서경: 5년간 늘린 공공기관 인력·기능 전수조사…신규채용 줄어든다

•   서경: 쪼그라드는 국내 자동차 생태계…올 350만대 생산도 위태

•   서경: SK E&S ‘청록수소’로 사업 확장…美 모놀리스에 2500만달러 투자

•   서경: 단기차입 늘린 상장사 22% 증가…투자 경고등

•   서경: 이와중에도 '불티'…6억 이하 아파트 거래만 늘어난 까닭

•   조선(P1): 공포의 더블링, 어느새 7만명대

•   조선: 한번도 감염안된 3300만명 “이번엔 못 피하나” 불안

•   조선(P1): 소득세 내리고 증권거래세 깎아준다

•   조선: 대기업 R&D 세액공제, MB때로 확대하면 年2조 투자 늘어

•   조선: “나이들어 일 못한다’” 250만명 육박···상반기에 22만명 늘어

•   조선: [백브리핑] ‘간판갈이’가 한창인 기획재정부

•   조선비즈: 세금 깎아주는 민생대책, 소비자 가격은 불변…물가 못 잡고 기업 수익성만 채워주나

•   조선비즈: 中 BYD, 상반기 전기차 판매량 테슬라 이겼다... 현대차·기아는 5위

•   조선비즈: 스마트워치 칩도 미세공정 경쟁… 애플 7나노에 삼성·퀄컴 5·4나노 대응

•   조선비즈: 이창양 산업장관, 文정부 탈원전 잔재 없앤다…부서명서 ‘에너지전환’ 퇴출

•   조선비즈: 영화관에 ‘팝콘’이 없다?… 엔데믹·원자재 수급 불안에 품귀 현상

•   중앙: 세입자가 중도해지 했는데, 복비는 집주인이 내라는 ‘법’

•   중앙: 8월엔 갤폴드4, 9월엔 아이폰14…폰 시장 ‘폭풍전야’

•   중앙: 실적 전망 줄줄이 내리는데, 완성차·정유업계는 오르네

•   동아(P1): 기업투자 발목 잡는 ‘시행령 규제’ 103건 손본다

•   동아(P1): 한일 외교, 징용 관련 “日기업 자산 현금화前 조기해결 필요성 공감”

•   동아: ‘탈원전 5년’ 일감 끊긴 中企 “신한울 공사때까지 어떻게 버티나”

•   동아: 원전 일감 한번에 몰려도 걱정… 中企 “설비투자 엄두 못내”

•   동아: 반도체 세척 ‘초순수’ 국산화 눈앞… 水처리 산업서 주도권 쥔다

•   문화: 정부, 공기업 수술 나서는데…지자체는 잇단 “신설”

•   한국: 희소금속 비축전쟁 중인데… "국내 유일 군산기지는 꽉 차"[희토류, 독립의 조건]

•   한국: K배터리 원료 삼총사, 니켈·리튬·코발트가 불안하다 [희토류, 독립의 조건]

•   한국: 세금도 예산도 깎는 기재부…정반대 고민 빠진 두 실세 조직

•   한국: 공매도는 증시 하락 '빌런'? 뚜렷한 증거는 없지만...

•   국민: 폰으로 車 문 열고, 폰끼리 송금… ‘초광대역’ 세상 열린다

•   서울: “반도체 부품값 30배 비싸게 불러도 필요한 물량 못 구해요”

•   서울: EU 원전 최신 안전기준 적용… ‘K택소노미’ 국내용 전락 우려

•   세계: 산업차관 “규제 완화 총력… 반도체 대책 21일 발표”

•   헤럴드경제: 삼성 115조 vs TSMC 109조...역대급 ‘반도체 왕좌’ 전쟁

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 190만명 채무불이행 위기… '빚투 탕감' 떠안은 은행들 [관치에 흔들리는 은행]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 삼성, 인니 스마트폰 시장 1위… "플래그십으로 Z세대 공략"

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 발열 잡고 용량 늘리고… K배터리 소재의 한계 뛰어넘는다 [소부장, 초격차기술을 향해]

•   아시아경제(P1): [대중 무역적자] 中 봉쇄정책 충격파‥흔들리는 수출 '텃밭'

•   디지털타임스(P1): 尹 "출·퇴근 불편 해소… GTX-A 개통 앞당기라"

•   디지털타임스: [단독] 짐 로저스 "지금 `銀·원유` 투자 적기… 내 생애 최악 하락장 올 것"

•   이데일리(P1): '나쁜 원低'의 늪…기업들, 경영전략 전면수정·투자계획 재검토

•   이데일리: '高환율특수' 사라졌다…원자재 구매 부담 느는데 물건은 안 팔려

•   이데일리: 환율 너마저…중소기업 "불난 집에 기름 붓는 격"

•   이데일리: 원자재값 급등과 싸운 식품업계, 이제는 강달러에 '이중고'

•   이데일리: 금융위기 이후 첫 4개월 연속 무역적자 초읽기

•   이데일리: 빅스텝에 거래절벽 이어지자…"10명중 1명 집 산뒤 1년내 매도"

•   연합: 전경련 "작년 외국인 직접투자 34% 늘었지만 3년 연속 日에 뒤져"

•   연합: SK하이닉스, 청주공장 증설 보류…"글로벌 불확실성 커져"

•   아주경제: [단독] 산업부 안일한 전력수급 대책 도마위.."수요 감축 실효성 글쎄"

•   전자신문(P1): 車리콜 200만대 역대급…“전동화 결함 급증”

•   전자신문(P1): 'LCD 가동률' 바닥쳤다…9월 77% 회복 전망

•   전자신문: 다시 치솟는 SMP…한전 재정 부담 악화 지속

•   전자신문: 유럽 배터리 대전...한·중·유럽 '삼국지'

•   KBS: [에너지 갈등]① ‘LNG발전소 건립 논란’ 경남 곳곳 몸살, 이유는?

•   KBS: [에너지 갈등]② “지역 동의는 필요 없다”…신재생·원전도 ‘일방통행’

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Jeffrey Frankel): Is the US in Recession?

•   Project Syndicate(Bogolo J. Kenewendo): The Key to Africa’s Economic Revolution

•   FT(Editorial Board): Time for the IMF to show Argentina some tough love

•   FT(Megan Greene): Democrats lack the tools they need to fight inflation

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): The great squeeze

•   FT(Lex): Coal markets: unusual situation reflects China’s slowdown

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The West’s Climate Policy Debacle

•   WSJ(Gerard Baker): Has Biden Lost It? He Never Had It

•   WSJ(Karen Elliott House): Biden’s Saudi Arabia Visit Was Worse Than an Embarrassment

•   WSJ(Christopher Barnard): The Global Nuclear Comeback

•   WSJ(Robert Lighthizer): Biden’s China Tariff Cuts Would Hurt the U.S.

•   NYT(Peter Coy): There’s a Better Way to Measure Economic Inequality

•   NYT(Tatiana Stanovaya): Putin Thinks He’s Winning

•   NYT(Carl Bildt): These conditions could end the war in Ukraine, but they won’t happen soon

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): Ending the Energy Crisis Doesn’t Mean Giving Up on Climate

•   Bloomberg(Justin Fox): China's Economic Engine Is About to Start Shrinking

•   Bloomberg(Allison Schrager): Inflation Beast Won't Lie Quietly Again for a Long Time

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): Europe’s Energy Crisis Will Cost You $200 Billion — Probably More

•   Bloomberg(Hal Brands): Food May Be the Ultimate Weapon in the 21st Century

•   Bloomberg(Adam Minter): China Is Falling Out of Love With Skyscrapers

•   Fox News(Rebekah Koffler): Biden's 5 failures in Ukraine that only embolden Russia

•   Fox Business(Larry Kudlow): The radical climate change agenda equals big government socialism

•   Reuters(John Kemp): Oil positions steady after heavy hedge fund selling ends