Global Economic Monitor 220712

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Global shares decline, bond yields slide and dollar rallies amid inflation fears

※   Focus on big bank earnings later this week

※   Indexes fall

※   Dollar climbs fresh highs before U.S. CPI, inflation expectations

※   Banks kick off earnings season from Thursday

※   Oil prices slide in volatile trading

•   Metals: Global demand fears, soaring dollar slam copper prices

•   Grains: Corn, soy firm on weather worries, pre-USDA report positioning

•   한국: 코스피, 기관 '팔자'에 3거래일 만에 하락…2,340선 턱걸이

[Indicators]

•   US Jun. Inflation expectations: New York Fed Survey Finds Long-Term Inflation Expectations Falling

•   China Jun. New Yuan loans: China’s Credit Flow Jumps as Government Boosts Economic Stimulus

•   Japan May GDP: Japan GDP down 0.8% in May, falling for 1st time in 4 months: JCER

•   Japan May Machinery orders: Japan's May machinery orders down 5.6%, 1st fall in 3 months

•   Russia Q2 Current account: Russia Current Account Hits Record on Surging Energy Exports

•   한국 5월 카드 승인금액: 거리두기 해제로 회식 급증… ‘법카’ 사용액 51%↑

•   한국 6월 고용행정통계: 직접일자리 줄이자 고용 회복세 '주춤'

•   한국 7월 1~10일 무역수지: 7월 1∼10일 수출 4.7% 증가에도 무역적자 55억달러

•   한국 3분기 은행 신용위험지수: "가계 신용위험, 코로나 후 최고"

[News]

•   WSJ: Global Tax Talks Hit Another Delay

※   Negotiators fear that holdup could sink proposals, which will need approval from a divided U.S. Congress

•   WSJ: Ukraine Digs for Survivors in Rubble of Residential Attacks by Russian Missiles

•   WSJ: Janet Yellen Begins Asia Trip to Win Support for Cap on Russian Oil Price

•   WSJ: U.S. Seeks to Fix WTO’s Broken Trade Dispute Process

•   WSJ: Fed’s George Concerned About Effect of Aggressive Rate Rises on Economy

•   WSJ: Derby’s Take: Amid Anxious Markets, Fed Officials Still Don’t See Recession

•   WSJ: Rising Covid Cases in China Raise Threat of Lockdowns, Rattling Chinese Markets

•   WSJ: Iran Set to Provide Russia With Armed Drones, White House Says

•   WSJ: Sri Lankan President’s Silence Over Resignation Fuels Political Anxiety

•   WSJ: Asian Central Banks Fight an Unwinnable Battle Against the Dollar

•   WSJ: Global Investors Dump Bonds of Chinese Banks That Lent Heavily to Russia

•   WSJ: Lumber Futures Are Getting a Makeover

•   WSJ: Moderna Is Developing Two Different Omicron-Targeting Booster Shots

•   WSJ: Miners Are Relying More on Robots. Now They Need Workers to Operate Them.

•   WSJ: Hyundai and Kia Are Challenging Tesla. Chinese Brands Could Be Next.

•   NYT: Most Democrats Don’t Want Biden in 2024, New Poll Shows

•   NYT: China’s Economy Stumbles in the Fog of Covid War

•   NYT: ‘There’s Nothing’: Scarcity Deepens Desperation in Sri Lanka

•   NYT: States With Abortion Bans Risk Losing Their Economic Edge

•   WP: ISIS planned chemical attacks in Europe, new details on weapons program reveal

•   WP: The Business Lunch May Be Going Out of Business

•   FT: Russia turns off gas pipeline to Germany for repairs

※   Officials fear flow through Nord Stream 1 might not resume after maintenance work

•   FT: Russian court allows Kazakh oil exports via key pipeline to continue

•   FT: Global population growth hits lowest rate since 1950

※   next year India is projected to surpass China as the most populous country

※   UN: World Population Prospects 2022

•   FT: Military briefing: is the west running out of ammunition to supply Ukraine?

•   FT: Did central bank balance sheets really need to get so big?

•   FT: European health agencies back second Covid booster for over-60s

•   FT: Business groups frustrated at UK-EU gridlock on post-Brexit trade

•   FT: Keir Starmer adjusts to life after Boris Johnson as Tories pick leader

•   FT: Sunak to stand firm on taxes until he has ‘gripped inflation’

•   FT: FT interview: Brazil’s Lula on the prospects of an extraordinary comeback

•   FT: Gulf of Mexico’s oil riches pose climate question for Biden

•   FT: STMicro and GlobalFoundries to build chip factory in EU tech independence push

•   FT: Ericsson, Qualcomm and Thales to trial 5G from space

•   Bloomberg: New Coronavirus Mutant BA.2.75 Raises Concerns Around the World

•   Bloomberg: US to Urge India, Japan to Back Plan for Cap on Russia Oil Price

•   Bloomberg: Biden’s Economic Plan Hits Crunch Time, Now With Manchin as Ally

•   Bloomberg: Blinken Dispatches Aides Across Asia as US, China Seek Support

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Bostic Confident Economy Can Handle Another Jumbo Rate Hike

•   Bloomberg: Raimondo Laments National-Security Risk in Logjam on Chips Bill

•   Bloomberg: White House Foresees June Inflation Reading as ‘Highly Elevated’

•   Bloomberg: Goldman’s Hatzius Says US Payroll Gains Overstate Job Growth

•   Bloomberg: Biden’s Economic Plan Hits Crunch Time, Now With Manchin as Ally

•   Bloomberg: Summer Blackout Fears Fuel 300% Jump in Gauge of US Power-Plant Profit

•   Bloomberg: Germany Poised to Agree on Bailout Terms for Uniper ‘Soon’

•   Bloomberg: ECB Says Stablecoin Rules Must be Implemented ‘With Urgency’

•   Bloomberg: Euro-Zone Recession Risk Seen Rising Even as Inflation Peak Near

•   Bloomberg: China Lays Out Rules for Managing US Engagement in Asia Pacific

•   Bloomberg: Kishida’s Big Win Creates Space to Pursue ‘New Capitalism’

•   Bloomberg: Brazil Close to Buying Diesel From Russia, Bolsonaro Says

•   Bloomberg: Thirteen ‘Perfect Storms' That Are Sweeping the World Right Now

•   Bloomberg: Ten Ways Things Are Really Different Than the Last Big Recession

•   Bloomberg: Russia's War Machine Still Getting Plenty of Cash From Oil

•   Bloomberg: Rivian Plans Hundreds of Job Cuts Following Surge in Staffing

•   Bloomberg: Natural Gas May Join Power on Japan’s Energy Saving List

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Natural Gas Gains on Oil, Coal in Global Energy Production

•   Reuters: Amid Ukraine war, Russian parliament to hold extraordinary session

•   Reuters: UK inflation still likely to fall sharply next year, BoE's Bailey says

•   Reuters: ECB should model new bond scheme on old one, Nagel says

•   Reuters: BOJ's Kuroda warns of high economic uncertainty, repeats easy policy bias

•   Reuters: Inflation fatigue? Bond investors latch on to disinflation

•   Reuters: For EV battery makers, it's go small or go home

•   Reuters: Ships get older and slower as emissions rules bite

•   Reuters: Analysis: Oil majors face output slump, deep losses if Russia stops Kazakh pipeline

•   Reuters: Analysis: Tax-cut talk in UK leadership race adds to inflation angst

•   Reuters: Analysis: Japan's dovish Kishida may now take defence mantle of slain mentor Abe

•   CNBC: China factories are feeling some heat as U.S., Europe demand slows

•   CNBC: From $10 billion to zero: How a crypto hedge fund collapsed and dragged many investors down with it

•   MarketWatch: If this stock market is shaping up like 2008, here’s where we could be headed next, says strategist

•   SCMP: Shinzo Abe: Abenomics not seen as the answer for China’s economic woes with reform favoured over stimulus

•   Nikkei Asia: Kubota to build excavator, tractor plants in U.S., India for $2.2bn

•   Nikkei Asia: China's hefty tax rebates batter COVID-hit local governments

•   매경(P1): "전기료? 문 열어놔야 그나마 들어오죠"…명동상가 60% '개문냉방'

•   매경: 개인도 공장도 펑펑…같은 제품 만드는데 日보다 전기 50% 더 써

•   매경: 문열고 냉방땐 전기료 한달 7만원 더내

•   매경: 열대야에 에어컨 켜고자는데…야간 전력이 낮보다 비싸다니?

•   매경(P1): 기업 발목잡는 중대법·노동법 불합리 형벌 조항 뜯어고친다

※   기재부: 기획재정부 업무보고 실시

•   매경: 기업인 전과자 만드는 6568개 법령…秋, 전수조사해 행정제재로

•   매경: [단독] 재정 허리띠 죄는 정부 "부처별 지출총량 제한할것"

•   매경: 무역적자 초비상에…금융지원 40조 확대

•   매경(P1): "집주인이 전세금 떼먹었어요"…상반기 3400억 역대 최다

•   매경: 전세대출 이자 내느니 월세 사는게 이득…'월세 난민' 쏟아진다

•   매경: "공공임대 공급 늘리고 무주택자 금융지원 확대해야"

•   매경: 건물주가 모셔가는 스타벅스…눈독 들이는 입지는?

•   매경: 예비사무관들이 반도체 '주경야독'하는 이유

•   매경: [단독] 해외 탄소감축 3천만t…협력국은 베트남 1곳

•   매경: [단독] 롯데케미칼, '아람코 블루수소 동맹' 참여

•   매경: [단독] 삼성이 인수한 하만, 日 도요타 뚫었다

•   매경: "'엉따' 한달에 2만4천원 내세요"…이랬다가 혼쭐난 車회사

•   매경: "삼성전자, 파운드리 분사 후 상장 검토를"

•   한경(P1): '소부장 자립' 3년…中 의존도만 커졌다

•   한경: "韓 소부장 자립 실패했다" 깎아내린 日…팩트는?

•   한경: 중국산 끊기면 '속수무책'…한국 기업들, 中 갑질 시달린다

•   한경(P1): 강남 '블루칩' 아파트값도 꺾였다

•   한경: 소득세 개편 부정적이던 기재부…윤 대통령 지시에 '과표구간 조정' 나설듯

•   한경: "임금 7% 올리고, 노조간부 해고 철회"…은행도 파업하나

•   한경: 모빌리티 매각이 사회적 책임 포기?…경영활동까지 막아선 카카오 노조

•   한경: "하루 260억씩 날리고 있다"…거리로 나온 대우조선 직원들

•   한경: 野 '종부세→국토균형세' 이름 바꾸고, 다주택자 세율인하 추진

•   한경: 美·獨 항구 노사분쟁에 속타는 韓 수출기업들

•   한경: "이러다가 지폐도 해외에서 찍어올 판"…인쇄산업의 눈물

•   한경: 모든 것은 클라우드로?…'비용 폭탄'의 역습

•   한경: 메타버스에 앞다퉈 뛰어드는 통신 3사

•   한경: "AI반도체 시장을 잡아라"…통신사들, 투자 경쟁 불 붙었다

•   서경(P1): 46%→42%→34%…'출범 두 달' 尹정부 심상찮다 [View&Insight]

•   서경(P1): 김주현 '공매도 금지' 가능성 시사

•   서경(P1): 승자 없는 전쟁…'제2 로톡' 치닫는 삼쩜삼

•   서경: 정부, 파괴적 혁신 요구하며 '갈등 방치'…파괴되는 플랫폼 상생

•   서경: 신재생 40%로 늘면…서울-전북 발전단가 20% 差

•   서경: '中배터리'의 공습…기아 이어 쌍용차도 중국산 쓴다

•   서경: [단독] 달러강세에…100대 기업, 환차익으로 전환

•   서경: 금리 오르자 수요 위축…상업용 부동산 거래도 ‘주춤’

•   조선(P1): 일주일새 또 더블링... 신규 확진 8주만에 3만명 넘었다

•   조선(P1): 혁신을 놓쳤다, 택시대란이 왔다

•   조선: 법인택시 기사 3년새 3만명 급감… 개인택시는 4대중 1대만 밤운행

•   조선: 규제하고 압박하고… 우버는 철수, 타다는 기소

•   조선: 골라 태우는 카카오택시… 우버는 ‘강제 배차’ 방식

•   조선: “코로나 재유행 공식화되면 어쩌나” 기지개 켜던 항공업계 좌불안석

•   조선비즈: 현대차 노사, 국내 투자 계획 합의…29년 만에 새 공장 건설

•   조선비즈: 철콘업계, 수도권 건설현장 10곳 공사 중단… 공사비 증액 요구

•   조선비즈: EY한영 “상반기 글로벌 IPO 작년 절반 수준으로 감소”

•   조선비즈: LCD 가격 하락에 실적 엇갈린 삼성D·LGD… OLED 전환 더 빨라진다

•   조선비즈: ‘천정부지’ 유윳값, 8월 공급대란 가능성…정부·낙농가 ‘차등가격제’ 협상 실패 후폭풍

•   조선비즈: 美 LA 가는 항공권 편도 ‘185만원’… 오르는 환율·물가에 유학생들 ‘한숨’

•   중앙: [Data & Now] 중기 77% “올해 채용계획 있다”

•   중앙: “체감물가 8%”vs“경영 악화”…노사 모두 최저임금 반대

•   동아(P1): [단독]“서울시 산하기관 26곳 중 최소 3, 4곳 통폐합”

•   동아: 하반기 경영환경 “좋음” 10%… 1년새 50%P 하락

•   동아: 채권전문가 절반 이상 “한은, 이달 사상 첫 빅스텝”

•   문화: 조선 인력 41% ‘뚝’… 물 들어오는데 노 못젓는다

•   문화: 배달앱 이용 급감… 업계선 “콜사” 비명

•   한국(P1): "집값 떨어졌다고? 아직 멀었다" "살 집 아니면 사지 마라"

•   국민: 물가 정점 아직 멀었다?… 식료품 가격 하반기 더 오른다

•   한겨레: “원전에 툭하면 구멍이 웬말” 6월에도 월성2호기 배관에 ‘핀홀’

•   한겨레: 내년부터 서울 대규모 아파트 지으려면 ‘제로에너지’ 충족해야

•   머니투데이(P1): [단독] 尹이 약속한 '고리2호 수명연장' 9월까지 주민의견 듣는다

•   머니투데이(P1): "큰놈부터 쓰러진다" 벤처투자 늘었지만 후기투자는 '보릿고개'

•   머니투데이: 1300원 넘나드는 미친 환율…"찬바람 불어야 떨어진다"

•   헤럴드경제(P1): “하반기 R엄습...경쟁력 강화 위한 3박자정책을”

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): "한은 빅스텝 나설땐 기업 이자부담 4兆"... 이달 韓美 기준금리 역전 가능성

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 인플레 기름붓는 대기업 노조 '임금 이기주의'

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 공사 멈춘 둔촌주공·원베일리… 서울 공급 비상

•   디지털타임스(P1): 경계 희미해진 금융영역…빅테크-정통금융 충돌

•   디지털타임스(P1): 이통3사, 내달 5만원대 5G요금제 내놓는다

•   이데일리(P1): 스타트업 투자유치 혹한기…유니콘에 더 가혹했다

•   이데일리: “러-우크라 전쟁 끝나도…고유가 3~4년 더 간다”

•   이데일리: [마켓인]탈석탄 국민연금, 주식·채권 4조원 '영향권'

•   연합: 삼성전자 D램 매출 2개 분기 연속 하락…점유율은 43%로 세계 1위

•   연합: 전경련 "세계 ICT 100대 기업에 한국 기업 2개뿐…경쟁국에 뒤처져"

•   전자신문(P1): DB하이텍, '반도체 설계' 분사

•   전자신문(P1): 애플 OLED아이패드, 2024년 나온다

•   전자신문(P1): "ESG평가, 믿을 수 없다"

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트] 납품단가 연동제부터 가업승계까지…중기 숙원 윤 정부서 해소될까

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]복수의결권 도입도 시급

•   전자신문: 3년 만에 오프라인 귀환 IFA…韓 130곳 참가 '역대 최대'

•   전자신문: "반도체대란 넘었다"…현대차그룹 깜짝실적 예고

•   전자신문: K-배터리 빅3에 현대차까지 '배터리 재활용시장' 뛰어든다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Daron Acemoglu): The Upside of Polarization?

•   Project Syndicate(Jim O’Neill): The Dollar Rules

•   Project Syndicate(Daniel Yergin): The Energy Crisis Will Deepen

•   Project Syndicate(Slavoj Žižek): The Betrayal of the Left

•   FT(Rana Foroohar): Is the US starting to resemble an emerging market?

•   FT(Lex): Emerging markets: inflation, shortages and interest rates cripple economies

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): Wokeness Is Putin’s Weapon

•   WSJ(Dennis Kwok, Sam Goodman): Chinese Communist Cells in Western Firms?

•   NYT(Gail Collins, Bret Stephens): And the Next President Will Be …

•   WP(Editorial Board): The U.S. should support Japan’s move to legitimize its military

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): After Abe Assassination, Japan’s Kishida Must Forge His Own Path

•   Bloomberg(Mohamed A. El-Erian): Investors Should Think Risk Factors, Not Asset Classes

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): Europe's Natural-Gas Crisis Is Worse Than It Looks

•   Bloomberg(Jared Dillian): Americans Are Talking Themselves Into a Recession

•   Bloomberg(Hal Brands): Ukraine War: Keep Putin’s Nuclear Threat From Launching Global Arms Race

•   Bloomberg(Faye Flam): Never Had Covid? Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 May End Your Luck

•   CNN(Joseph H. Davis): The US can still avoid a recession. Here's how

•   Fox News(Chuck DeVore): Biden's focus on Europe over China puts Taiwan in danger

•   Reuters(Jamie McGeever): Rapid fall in 'core' inflation expectations offers Fed hope

•   Nikkei Asia(Robert D. Atkinson): Japan's industrial policies do work, but urgent reforms are needed