Global Economic Monitor 220721

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street closes higher boosted by tech stocks gains on upbeat earnings

※   Netflix gains on customer growth forecast

※   Baker Hughes falls on bigger quarterly loss

※   Tesla to report earnings after market close

※   Indexes Up: Dow 0.15%, S&P 500 0.59%, Nasdaq 1.58%

•   Metals: Copper rises as upbeat sentiment lifts base metals

•   Grains: Soy, corn futures ease on improving US weather

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Tops $24,000 for First Time in a Month; Ether Rallies

•   한국: 코스피, 개인 매수에 0.67% 상승 마감…2,380선 회복

•   한국: 이번주 환율 10원 넘게 하락… 옐런 방한 효과?

[Indicators]

•   US Jun. Existing home sales: U.S. Home Prices Hit Record of $416,000 in June as Sales Continued to Slide

※   WSJ: America Still Needs More Homes

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications(MBA): Mortgage demand drops to a 22-year low as higher interest rates and inflation crush homebuyers

•   Eurozone Jul. Consumer confidence: Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Plunges to Lowest Level on Record

•   Germany Jun. PPI: German producer prices rise at a slower pace in June

•   UK Jun. CPI·PPI: Rising fuel and food costs push UK inflation up to 9.4%

•   China LPR: Chinese Banks Hold Lending Rates as PBOC Remains Cautious

•   Argentina May Economic activity: Argentina’s Economy Unexpectedly Grew for Second Month in May

[News]

•   WSJ: Putin’s Gas Game: Toy With Europe’s Supply and Make Its Leaders Squirm

•   WSJ: Putin Says Russia to Meet Gas Commitments to Europe but Warns of Nord Stream Cuts

※   Russia’s president says sanctions could prevent additional maintenance on components for the pipeline carrying Russian gas to Europe

•   WSJ: Natural Gas Remains Putin’s Weapon of Choice

•   WSJ: Ukraine Targets Key Bridge as It Prepares Counteroffensive in South

•   WSJ: Ukraine Moves to Weed Out Entrenched Russian Influence in Government

•   WSJ: Ukraine Seeks to Delay Debt Payments

•   WSJ: Interest-Rate Pain From Higher Inflation Has Barely Begun

•   WSJ: Biden Calls Climate ‘an Emergency’ as He Prepares Executive Actions

※   President’s comments at former coal plant come as his climate-change agenda stalls in Congress and millions live under heat alert

※   White House: FACT SHEET: President Biden’s Executive Actions on Climate to Address Extreme Heat and Boost Offshore Wind

•   WSJ: More Than 100 Million Americans Face Dangerous Heat Wave

•   WSJ: U.S. Initiates Trade Fight With Mexico Over Energy Policy

•   WSJ: ECB Being Pulled in Multiple Directions as It Prepares First Rate Rise in a Decade

•   WSJ: China Covid-19 Cases Hit Two-Month High

•   WSJ: China Faces Growing Pressure to Address Mortgage Protests

•   WSJ: Sri Lanka’s Parliament Elects Ranil Wickremesinghe as President Amid Protests

•   WSJ: Market Rout Shows Dangers of Margin Lending, Crypto Style

•   WSJ: House Lawmakers Near Bipartisan Deal to Address Stablecoin Risks

•   WSJ: Tesla Ends Streak of Record Quarterly Profits After China Factory Shutdown

※   Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle maker also is grappling with soaring inflation and supply-chain disruptions

•   WSJ: China Evergrande Prepares to Shed Light on Restructuring as Creditors’ Patience Wears Thin

•   WSJ: Volvo Moves Closer to All-Electric Goal

•   WSJ: Tech Downturn Slows Early-Stage Startup Funding

•   NYT: War and Warming Upend Global Energy Supplies and Amplify Suffering

•   NYT: America’s Safety Net for Workers Hurt by Globalization Is Falling Apart

•   NYT: Senate Advances Bill to Bolster U.S. Competitiveness With China

•   NYT: Chinese officials apologize for breaking into homes to search for Covid cases.

•   NYT: Italy Is Haunted by the Pain of Past Economic Crises

•   NYT: If Oil Drilling Ends in California, What Happens to Oil Country?

•   FT: Blistering heatwave plays havoc with Europe’s strained energy system

•   FT: Brussels asks EU states to slash gas use by 15% starting next month

※   European Commission: Save Gas for a Safe Winter: Commission proposes gas demand reduction plan to prepare EU for supply cuts

•   FT: IMF calls for rethink of German debt-cutting plan if Russia halts gas flows

※   IMF: Germany: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Germany

•   FT: Mario Draghi offers to stay as Italy’s PM if coalition partners back reform

•   FT: Draghi on brink after coalition partners withdraw backing

•   FT: Sunak to face Truss in battle to become UK prime minister

•   FT: Sunak and Truss line up for final showdown over Tory leadership

•   FT: UK government approves new £20bn nuclear power plant in Suffolk

•   FT: UK companies’ confidence in global economy slumps

•   FT: US consumers are bending but not breaking as prices soar. Can it last?

•   FT: Chinese city Zhengzhou sets up bailout fund as mortgage boycott spreads

•   FT: No food, no fuel and no jobs: the economic catastrophe engulfing Sri Lanka

•   FT: Inside the messy world of ESG indices

•   FT: Generation moonshot: why young investors are not ready to give up on risk

•   FT: ASML pulls in record chipmaking equipment orders as global shortage bites

•   FT: Asia’s new agricultural revolution: planting a high-tech future

•   Bloomberg: Rising Inflation 'Bad News for Everyone' as Food and Fuel Costs Soar

•   Bloomberg: Citi Economists Call Global Recession a Clear and Present Danger

•   Bloomberg: Biden Expects to Speak With China’s Xi Within Next 10 Days

•   Bloomberg: China Envoy Says US Is Blurring ‘One China’ Policy on Taiwan

•   Bloomberg: Most Americans in Poll Don’t Want Biden or Trump to Run in 2024

•   Bloomberg: Americans Are Buying Fewer Staples as Inflation Crimps Budgets

•   Bloomberg: Half of Hourly Workers Have No Emergency Savings at All

•   Bloomberg: About Six in 10 in US Concerned Pay Can’t Support Family, Survey Finds

•   Bloomberg: Are We In a Recession? Here's How to Prepare for a Slowdown as Inflation Surges

•   Bloomberg: Covid Resurgence Sees Some Virus Hardliners Take Softer Approach

•   Bloomberg: ECB Faces the Classic Emerging-Market Dilemma

•   Bloomberg: What to Watch for When ECB Unveils Its Anti-Fragmentation Tool

•   Bloomberg: ECB Aims for Bulletproof Crisis Tool Anticipating Legal Showdown

•   Bloomberg: China’s Premier Signals Flexible Growth Target, Stimulus Caution

•   Bloomberg: It's Not Just China Homebuyers. Now Property Suppliers Are Boycotting Loans.

•   Bloomberg: China’s Covid Outbreak Has Residents Trying to Flee Lockdowns

•   Bloomberg: China’s Spending on Russian Energy Jumps to $6.4 Billion in June

•   Bloomberg: China Deepens Its Dependence on Coal by Speeding up Approvals

•   Bloomberg: India’s Economic Recovery Falters as High Prices Start to Bite

•   Bloomberg: India Slashes Windfall Tax on Fuel Exports, Reliance Jumps

•   Bloomberg: India Current Account Gap to Worsen on Pricey Imports, IIF Says

•   Bloomberg: High Inflation Makes Trudeau’s Spending Habits Harder to Justify

•   Bloomberg: Kuroda Stares Down Market Bets for BOJ Pivot During His Term

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s Power Crunch Cuts Zinc and Aluminum Capacity in Half

•   Bloomberg: Ford Plans Up to 8,000 Job Cuts to Help Fund EV Investment

•   Bloomberg: Truckers Protesting Gig-Work Law Are Shutting Down Part of Key California Port

•   Bloomberg: Apple’s China Shipments Surged in June After Lockdowns Lifted

•   Bloomberg: Solar Panel Market: Silicon Price Rises for Eighth Week in Blow to Clean Energy

•   Bloomberg: Power-Sector CO2 Emissions to Dip as Renewables Outpace Coal

•   Reuters: ECB to finally join rate hike club with big move on agenda

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE India central bank prepared to spend $100 bln more defending rupee - source

•   Reuters: Exclusive: EU likely to bolster Apple probe with new evidence, no new charges - sources

•   Reuters: iPhone maker Foxconn builds EV partnership with NXP Semiconductors

•   Reuters: As EVs go mainstream, a rush for share of home charger market

•   Reuters: Explainer: Can U.S. port infrastructure handle more crude exports?

•   Reuters: Analysis: Debt-laden Italy looks no less vulnerable as rates shoot higher

•   Reuters: Analysis: Oil price windfall tests Gulf's fiscal discipline

•   Reuters: Analysis: Asia’s central banks forced to play catch-up in global rush to raise rates

•   CNBC: President Biden’s job approval rating hits new low in public poll

•   CNBC: Raimondo warns of ‘deep and immediate recession’ if U.S. were to be cut off from Taiwan chip manufacturing

•   CNBC: Global chip shortage is not over and the slowdown is ‘going to bite,’ analyst says

•   MarketWatch: A strong dollar is stirring trouble in markets: What investors need to know

•   SCMP: China lobbying behind scenes at UN to block Xinjiang rights report’s publication, document shows

•   SCMP: China’s approvals for new coal plants rebound amid renewed focus on energy security after last year’s power crisis: Greenpeace

•   SCMP: Trump-era tariffs on Chinese tech imports cost US firms US$32 billion, hurting production and jobs

•   SCMP: As China, US point blame over global food crisis, what role can their ‘good interactions’ play?

•   SCMP: How China’s rare earth dominance spurs US and its allies to diversify supply chain of critical minerals

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan's daily COVID cases hit record, top 150,000

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Xi's entourage to Hong Kong, Xinjiang likely core of new team

•   Economic Times: Expect fiscal slippage of 0.4% in FY23: Nomura

•   매경(P1): 尹 "임대차법 개정하자" 野에 제안

•   매경: 월세난민 빨간불에…민간등록임대 부활카드 꺼냈다

•   매경(P1): 민노총에 질렸다…대우조선 노조, 탈퇴 수순

•   매경: 25m 도크에 올라간 대우조선 사무직…"이러다간 공멸" 맞불집회

•   매경: 대우조선 사태 불똥 번질라…현대重그룹 긴급사장단회의

•   매경(P1): 저소득층 울린 苦물가…영양불평등 더 커진다

•   매경: 전기료 3배 폭등 이후…英지자체 "우리 지역에 원전 지어달라"

•   매경: "英원전 수십년 일감 생겨…생태계 회복"

•   매경: 개인주택에도 7단계 에너지 등급…새는 전기 잡는다

•   매경: [단독] 기온 예측도 없이…기후위기 대응하라는 환경부

•   매경: 보리·마늘·양파 안보이네…강수량 부족에 생산량 급감

•   매경: 한덕수 "전경련, 정책 수립과정에 협조를"

•   매경: 더 얇은 플립, 5천만 화소 폴드…'폴더블 천만시대' 연다

•   매경: 실적펑크 예고에도…車부품주 왜 잘 달리지?

•   매경: 금리 부담에 서울·경기 미분양 더 쌓여

•   매경: [MK BUSINESS STORY] '빅' 데이터 집착…헛심쓰는 걸 수도 있어요

•   매경: [View&Outlook] "한미 소형모듈원자로 협력, 亞탄소중립의 구심점"

•   한경(P1): 이제와 재정 걱정…탄핵까지 꺼내며 '법인세 감세' 막는 巨野

•   한경(P1): 추경호 부총리 겸 기획재정부 장관 "文정부서 국가빚 400조 폭증…새 정부, 돈 쓸 여력 없다"

•   한경: 추경호 "부동산은 못잡고 중산층만 잡는 종부세 고치겠다"

•   한경: "올 성장률 2.6%보다 낮아질 것…밥상물가는 9~10월에 꺾일 듯"

•   한경(P1): 포스코인터-에너지, 합병 추진

•   한경: 민주당 전당대회가 쏘아올린 '재벌개혁' 논쟁

•   한경: 유턴기업도 경자구역에 신·증설…수도권 공장 입지 규제 확 푼다

•   한경: "인플레에 수출회복 제약"…기재부, 두 달째 "경기둔화"

※   기재부: [보도참고] 2022년 7월 최근 경제동향

•   한경: 새 한수원 사장, 황주호-이종호 2파전

•   한경: 채권 ETF 사들이는 기관…"내년 금리 꺾인다"에 베팅

•   서경(P1): "수요 절벽"…포스코, 철강값 확 내렸다

•   서경: 산업의 쌀' 철강 흔들리면 전방위 타격…건설·가전은 이미 '중상'

•   서경(P1): [알립니다] ‘머니트렌드 2022’… ‘하반기 재테크 대전망’ 8월30일 롯데호텔서울

•   서경: 반도체 장비 수입 상반기 27% 뚝…설비투자 축소에 하반기도 먹구름

•   서경: 김부장 퇴직금 어쩌나…'-11%' 연금 수익률에 멘붕

•   서경: 갤럭시Z 폴드·플립4 내달 첫선…'폴더블폰' 물량 2배 늘리나

•   서경: [시그널]기업 현금확보 전쟁…금리 7%대 사모채 등장

•   서경: 빈 사무실이 없다…서울 A급 오피스 공실률 13년만 최저

•   서경: [단독]코인 폭락·이자 급증에…줄도산 경고등 켜졌다

•   조선(P1): 출산율 3년 연속 세계 꼴찌

•   조선: 코로나 안 걸렸던 사람이 걸린다… 확진 97%가 첫 감염

•   조선: [단독] 5년 일하면 원하는 부서로… 삼성전자 ‘FA 제도’ 9월 시행

•   조선비즈: 낸드 굴기 나선 中 YMTC, 삼성·SK하이닉스도 못 한 232단 양산?

•   조선비즈: 불황 대비하자... 해운업계도 사업 다각화 바람

•   조선비즈: TSMC, 폭스바겐·GM·도요타와 반도체 협력… 삼성-현대차 동맹 지지부진

•   인베스트조선: "얼마나 잘 벌까" 아닌 "얼마나 덜 잃을까"…실적방어가 중요해질 어닝시즌

•   인베스트조선: 정권교체 3개월째…시장의 주인공은 누구일까

•   인베스트조선: LG 배터리에도 드리운 '안보동맹' 논리…프렌드쇼어링 청구서 본격화

•   중앙(P1): 개미, 주식 손절하며 尹 손절 하나...겹치는 하락곡선에 속타는 당정

•   중앙(P1): 내달부터 첫 주택 구입 때 LTV 80%

•   중앙: 정점 때 하루 확진 30만 예측…임시선별진료소 70곳 재개

•   중앙: “BA.5에 효과” 모더나 새 백신 도입 협의

•   중앙: 여행업계, 손님 느는데 일할 손이 없네

•   동아: 파이어족 “나 회사 돌아갈래”… 주식 급락-물가 급등에 일터로

•   문화(P1): 상장사 10년간 매출 12% 오를때 임금은 43% 뛰었다

•   한국(P1): 美 주도 '공급망' 장관회의서 공동선언문 채택

•   한국: "뭘 해도 하루 밥 한 공기도 안 먹는다"... 나락에 빠진 '나락'

•   서울: [단독] 방사청·한원연, 원전·방산 수출 머리 맞댄다

•   서울: 레고 조립처럼 ‘뚝딱’… 건설현장 똑똑해진다

•   한겨레: 납품가 연동제 9월 시범 실시…20~30개 업체 대상

•   머니투데이(P1): 집값 2~3억씩 떨어졌다?…실제론 "못내려" vs "급매만", 치킨게임 중

•   머니투데이(P1): D램 이어 낸드 가격 '뚝'…반도체 한파에 삼성·SK, 고민 커진다

•   머니투데이: '전기차' 질주에 속도 줄이는 유럽…현대차에겐 기회?

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 개인카드·카드론도 ‘코로나19 채무조정’

•   헤럴드경제: “24개 물건 중 낙찰은 4건뿐”...경매시장에도 부는 찬바람

•   헤럴드경제: K-배터리 “3년내 中 중심 판도 확 바꾼다”

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 사라진 M&A 장벽… 농사 짓는 은행 나온다

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 방폐물 기술개발에 1조4000억 투입

•   아시아경제(P1): [10대 그룹 시총]올해 상반기만 170조 증발

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]尹 '모래주머니' 철폐론… 규제개혁론자 '김종석' 총괄한다

•   디지털타임스: 블룸버그 `신흥시장 위기 기사`서 韓 언급 없었다는데…

•   이데일리: 대유행마다 등장했던 거리두기 6차 유행땐 제외 이유는

•   이데일리: [단독]정부부처도, 공기업도…정권 바뀌자 정규직화에 등 돌려

•   이데일리: [단독]尹 주재 규제혁신전략회의, 내달 ‘킥오프’

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 6만8721명 확진…누적 확진 1천900만명 넘어

•   연합: 경기침체 우려에 니켈·철광석 등 원자잿값 뚝뚝…업종별 희비

•   연합: 코로나19로 신규 채용 감소…50세 이상 직원 수, 30대 미만 추월

•   연합: 전경련 "전력산업 독점구조 해소하고 소매부문에 경쟁 도입해야"

•   KBS: [에너지 갈등]③ ‘밀양 송전탑 사태’ 전국서 재연, 왜?

•   KBS: “신재생에너지 확대로 일자리 200만 개 창출”…“원전 확대 정책이 ‘걸림돌’”

•   SBS: [단독] 광복절 특사…이재용 '복권'

•   전자신문(P1): 삼성 美 파운드리 채용 시작....TSMC·인텔과 인력 쟁탈전

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]가전시장이 얼고 있다

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]가전업계, 프리미엄·신가전으로 수요둔화 대응

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Chris Patten): The Pathologies of Long Boris

•   Project Syndicate(Christian Lindner, Lars P. Feld): A New Fiscal Strategy for Germany

•   Project Syndicate(Kaushik Basu): Why Sri Lanka Imploded

•   Project Syndicate(Anne-Marie Slaughter, Ian Shapiro): The Golden Arches Go to War

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): The investment drought of the past two decades is catching up with us

•   FT(Tony Barber): EU stores up trouble for its Balkan enlargement plans

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Capitulation watch!

•   FT(Philippa Sigl-Glöckner): Eurozone leaders are pushing the ECB into murky waters

•   FT(Alan Beattie): The world isn’t prepared for a wave of sovereign debt defaults

•   FT(Lex): China property: refusing to pay mortgages is a powerful political weapon

•   FT(Lex): Baker Hughes: oil rally is no cash gusher

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Europe Confronts Its Worst Energy Nightmare

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan Trip

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The ‘Beast Mode’ Presidency?

•   WSJ(Alan S. Blinder): The Fed Shouldn’t Raise Interest Rates Too Quickly

•   WSJ(John Bolton): How to Stiffen Europe’s Resolve After the Iran Nuclear Deal

•   WSJ(Daniel Henninger): ‘National Emergency’ and the Democrats’ Apocalyptic Politics

•   NYT(Peter Coy): Inflation Is Bad, But Unemployment Is Far Worse

•   NYT(David Wallace-Wells): Endemic Covid-19 Looks Pretty Brutal

•   NYT(Koichi Nakano): Shinzo Abe Failed to Rearm Japan. Let’s Keep It That Way.

•   WP(David Ignatius): There are too many wild cards to forecast the Ukraine war

•   Bloomberg(Tyler Cowen): The Strong Dollar Is a Vote of Confidence in America

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): ‘Full Capitulation’ Could Mean Opportunity Knocking

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): Saudi Arabia Reveals Oil Output Is Near Its Ceiling

•   Bloomberg(Brooke Sutherland, Ben Schott): It's Time for GE to Let Go of GE

•   Bloomberg(James Stavridis): Putin Won't Use a Nuke. Chemical Weapons, Maybe.

•   Bloomberg(Tim Culpan): ASML Faces a Bigger Problem in a Talent Shortage Than When to Recognize Revenue

•   Bloomberg(Eduardo Porter): The Earth Wants Biden to Keep Gas Prices High

•   Bloomberg(Kimberly Clausing): No, Joe Manchin, Taxes Don’t Cause Inflation

•   Bloomberg(Hendrik du Toit): How to Reach Net Zero Profitably

•   CNN(Mark Zandi): The painful market selloff should be over soon

•   MarketWatch(Rex Nutting): Almost all the economic numbers line up: A U.S. recession is likely

•   Fox Business(Larry Kudlow): This is the reason the economy is slumping