Global Economic Monitor 220720

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street closes sharply higher on strong corporate earnings

※   Boeing rises on deal to sell jets to 777 Partners

※   Johnson & Johnson and IBM fall on dollar impact warning

※   Halliburton, Hasbro, Truist rise after profit beat

※   Indexes Up: Dow 2.43%, S&P 500 2.76%, Nasdaq 3.11%

※   Biggest one-day percentage gain for Nasdaq since June 24

•   Eurozone: Euro Surges to Two-Week High as Markets Bet on Bigger ECB Hike

•   India: India’s Rupee Touches Record Low Against Dollar

•   Gasoline: US Gasoline Prices Fall to Two-Month Low With Pump Pain Easing

•   Natural gas: European Gas Prices Slip on Signs of Lower Russia-Supply Risk

•   Metals: Demand fears return to haunt copper prices

•   Grains: Corn, soybean futures sag on US crop prospects

•   한국: 코스피, 기관 매도에 약보합…애플 긴축에 투심 위축

[Indicators]

•   US Jun. Housing starts: Home Building Slipped in June for Second Straight Month

•   UK Jun. Employment: UK private sector pay grows five times as fast as public wages

•   한국 6월 항공 운송비용: 6월 항공 운송비용 ㎏당 美 5154원… 전년대비 2배 급등

•   한국 7월 주택사업 경기전망지수: 주택사업경기 침체 전망 계속되나… 주산연 “회복까지 상당 시간 필요”

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukraine Faces Difficulties Getting Western Weapons to Front Lines

•   WSJ: U.S. Himars Help to Hold Off Russian Advance, Ukraine Says

•   WSJ: Blinken to Highlight Ukraine War in Push for Supply-Chain Cooperation

•   WSJ: Biden to Tackle Climate Change During Visit to Former Coal Power Plant

•   WSJ: Derby’s Take: Fed’s Bullard Says Yield-Curve Signal Might Not Be So Ominous

•   WSJ: Senate Vote to Test Appetite for Expanded Chips Bill

•   WSJ: Big Tech Antitrust Bill Backers Push for Vote

•   WSJ: China Warns U.S. Against Nancy Pelosi Visit to Taiwan

※   Beijing says its relations with Washington will be severely damaged if U.S. House speaker visits self-governed island

•   WSJ: Europe Fears a Long, Cold Winter if Russia Ends Supply of Natural Gas

•   WSJ: Putin’s Trip to Tehran Aims to Boost Ties With Iran, Turkey

•   WSJ: Sri Lanka’s Protesters Aren’t Ready to Stand Down

•   WSJ: Strong Dollar Fuels Pullback in Commodity Markets

•   WSJ: Netflix Loses Nearly 1 Million Subscribers, Vows Rebound

•   WSJ: Twitter-Musk Trial Set for October in Lawsuit Over Stalled $44 Billion Takeover

•   WSJ: Facebook Shifts Resources From News to Focus on Creator Economy

•   WSJ: CDC Recommends Novavax’s Covid Vaccine for Adults 18 and Older

•   WSJ: Chinese Regulator to Fine Didi More Than $1 Billion Over Data-Security Breaches

•   WSJ: How Heat Waves and Record-Breaking Temperatures Can Affect Your Health

•   NYT: Outbreaks in China prompt lockdowns and fears of more economic woes.

•   WP: As Biden eyes 2024, one person weighs heavily: Trump

•   FT: ECB to discuss ending negative rates with 50 basis point move

※   Speculation of bigger than expected move intensifies ahead of key vote on Thursday

•   FT: European economy: Lagarde wrestles with an ‘impossible situation’

•   FT: IMF warns of sharp European economic hit from Russian gas embargo

※   Eastern Europe and Italy would suffer serious recessions unless countries pool resources

※   IMF: The Economic Impacts on Germany of a Potential Russian Gas Shutoff

•   FT: White House warns Russia planning to annex parts of southern Ukraine

•   FT: Ukraine and Russia near deal to end blockade of grain exports

•   FT: Ukraine warns of big cuts to wheat harvest if Russian blockade continues

•   FT: German energy rationing debate pits consumers against industry

•   FT: Italy’s hard-right parties ready to fill void if Draghi fulfils threat to quit

•   FT: EU considers rescheduling Covid vaccine deliveries to 2024

•   FT: France to pay €9.7bn for nationalisation of EDF

•   FT: BoE governor says half-point interest rate rise ‘on table’

•   FT: UK unions threaten strikes after below-inflation public sector pay rises

•   FT: UK government produces public sector pay offer that pleases no one

•   FT: Israeli attacks feed distrust and fear in Iran

•   FT: South-east Asian currencies weather market storm better than international peers

•   FT: Investors cut equity allocations to lowest level since Lehman collapse

•   FT: BHP warns of slowing global growth as monetary policy tightens

•   FT: Six defining questions of the energy crisis

•   Bloomberg: European Commission Doesn’t Expect Russia to Restart Nord Stream

•   Bloomberg: US Official Sees Russia Export Controls as Template for China

•   Bloomberg: Yellen Takes Friend-Shoring Pitch to Asia to Address Supply Snarls

•   Bloomberg: Kissinger Warns Biden Against Endless Confrontation With China

•   Bloomberg: If Biden Declares Climate Emergency, He Can Ban Oil Exports, Fund Clean Energy

•   Bloomberg: US Oil, Gas Trump Renewable Energy in Public Land Leasing, Report Shows

•   Bloomberg: Most US Cities Plan to Use Infrastructure Aid on Roads, Bridges

•   Bloomberg: EU, China to Cooperate on Tackling Food Crisis, Fertilizers

•   Bloomberg: EU Set to Target 15% Reduction in Natural-Gas Use on Russian Supply Woes

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s Heat Wave Starts to Hamstring Its Energy Infrastructure

•   Bloomberg: Xi Faces Surprise Revolt From Chinese Homebuyers on Mortgage Boycott

•   Bloomberg: Mortgage Boycott Shows How Deep China’s Property Crisis Goes

•   Bloomberg: China Banks to Forfeit $4.6 Billion on Mortgage Break, Citi Says

•   Bloomberg: BOJ’s Kuroda Determined to Maintain Stimulus as World Tightens

•   Bloomberg: BofA Survey Shows Full Investor Capitulation Amid Pessimism

•   Bloomberg: Big Yen Short in Doubt for Global Traders Even as Tokyo Piles In

•   Bloomberg: Asian Steel Markets Hit by Inflows of Cheap Russian Metal

•   Bloomberg: Palm Oil Set to Plunge 20% by September, Top Analyst Predicts

•   Bloomberg: Vale Cuts Full-Year Production Forecast, Buoying Iron-Ore Market

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Russia seen restarting gas exports from Nord Stream 1 on schedule

※   This content was produced in Russia where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Biden to issue climate executive orders Wednesday - sources

•   Reuters: Britain swelters on its hottest day ever as temperatures hit 40C

•   Reuters: Omicron BA.5 makes up nearly 78% of COVID variants circulating in U.S. - CDC

•   Reuters: Clogged California ports face new labor risk from trucking

•   Reuters: No word yet on new Russian company to operate Sakhalin-2 project, says Japan

•   Reuters: Japan's economy likely to grow more slowly than expected through rest of fiscal year, poll shows

•   Reuters: How China became ground zero for the auto chip shortage

•   Reuters: Tesla braces for earnings hit, but EV delivery outlook is key

•   Reuters: Explainer: What is the ‘S’ in ESG investing?

•   CNBC: China’s trucking fleets hit by Covid strain BA.5 and strict driver testing, slowing global trade

•   MarketWatch: U.S. inflation, recession concerns take a back seat in markets to someone else's problems for now: Europe's

•   Hill: US losing ground to China, Russia in South American lithium rush

•   SCMP: China on cusp of joining high-income club, but slowdown raises spectre of middle-income trap

•   SCMP: China’s buyers are snapping up abodes in Marco Rubio’s Florida home base, splurging US$6.1 billion on US real estate to top US list for 10th year

•   SCMP: China denies inviting European leaders to meet Xi, but sources confirm approach has been made

•   SCMP: China travellers reconsider flights as high oil prices see fuel surcharge surge tenfold

•   Caixin: In Depth: China Doubles Down on Infrastructure to Spur Growth

•   Nikkei Asia: Asia's odd couple: Vietnam and the U.S. find opposites attract

•   Nikkei Asia: Baidu's video platform signs content deal with China's TikTok

•   매경(P1): 尹 "기다릴만큼 기다렸다"...대우조선 사태에 공권력투입 임박

•   매경: 헬기 타고 현장간 장관, 노조는 농성 고수…강대강 대치

•   매경: 공권력 투입 초읽기…전운 감도는 거제 대우조선해양

•   매경(P1): 대학 반도체 학과 정원 확대…10년간 15만명 양성

•   매경: 교원만 확보하면 반도체학과 신증설…수도권大 규제도 푼다

•   매경: 반도체 정원 늘려줬는데… 지방대 여전히 불만인 이유

•   매경: 업계 일단 환영 "소부장 인력난에도 숨통"

•   매경(P1): 은행에 배민 같은 IT플랫폼 소유 길 열려

•   매경: 27년만에 은행 '이종결합' 기회…빅테크 대항할 무기 생겨

•   매경: 어렵게 취업했는데...첫 직장 재직기간은 겨우 18개월

•   매경: [단독] 공공기관 혁신안 내달 나온다

•   매경: [단독] 원화값 급락에…기재부, 국민연금에 SOS

•   매경: 삼성, 파운드리 3나노 25일 공개…화성사업장서 공식 출하식

•   매경: 삼성전자까지 털렸다…재택근무용 PC도 해킹 표적

•   매경: 네이버 '초거대 AI 플랫폼', 스타트업 100여곳서 활용

•   매경: 증자 철회·CB전환가 하향…두번 우는 개미

•   한경: 50대, 4차 접종 첫날 예약 1.5%뿐…"내달 중순 하루 28만명 확진"

•   한경: 정부로 기우는 '당정 무게추'

•   한경: 스마트폰 철수했는데…"예상 깼다" LG전자, 뜻밖의 근황

•   서경(P1): 옐런 "필요시 유동성 공급"…통화 스와프 물꼬

•   서경: 반도체 쏠림 지원에 고민 커진 첨단산업 …배터리·미래차·AI 등 인재 로드맵은 숙제로

•   서경: ‘블랙아웃’ 막자…전력 아낀만큼 보상 'DR 시장' 키운다

•   서경: 현대차, 글로벌 동맹 확대…‘수소 항공기’ 가속

•   조선: [단독] 8·15 특별사면 대규모로 한다. 기업인 정치인 생계형사범 탈북민 이주민 대상

•   조선비즈: 잘 나가던 스마트폰 OLED도 경기침체엔 재간없네…올해 출하량 첫 역성장

•   조선비즈: “코스닥 상장 미룰까”… 금리인상·증시 악재에 기업들 IPO 연기 고심

•   인베스트조선: 가상자산에 규제 칼 빼드는 尹 정부…육성이냐 죽이기냐 갈림길

•   중앙: 국민 2.3%가 공무원…문 정부 경찰·소방·교육만 6만명 증원

•   중앙: 10월이면 물가 꺾인다고?

•   중앙: 축산물·채소·과일값 다 뛰는데 수산물 가격은 그나마 안정

•   문화: 빚투 ‘반대매매’ 다시 증가세… 주가하락 더 부추긴다

•   한국: 경실련 "월급 36년 꼬박 모아야 서울에 내 집 마련 가능"

•   서울: [단독] 5G·저탄소공급망·노동분야 IPEF 규칙 곳곳에 ‘中 배제’

•   서울: “대세 하락 진입” VS “일시적 조정기”… 불안감 커지는 부동산 시장

•   서울: 강남불패도 흔들린 하락기… 현시장 상황과 ‘기시감’

•   헤럴드경제: 비용감축 첫 타깃…포인트가 사라진다

•   헤럴드경제: 낮엔 회사차·저녁엔 내차…‘카 공유시대’

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]정부, ‘칩4’ 검토 본격화…비공개 차관급 회의 개최

•   아시아경제: [서막 오른 4680 배터리 전쟁]국내 3사도 눈독…추가 투자 나온다

•   디지털타임스: "TV 팔기 힘드네"… 프리미엄·콘텐츠로 눈 돌린 LG·삼성

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 7만3301명 확진, 또 7만명대…1주새 1.9배로

•   연합: 산업부, 수소산업계와 간담회…"청정수소인증제 2024년 시행"

•   연합: 상반기 '소부장' 수입 일본 의존도 15.4%…역대 최저 기록

•   연합: 작년 100대 기업 韓경제에 1천238조원 기여…삼성전자 160조 1위

•   연합: 무협 "디지털 통상규범 주도권 경쟁 심화…적극적 대응 필요"

•   연합: [미얀마르포] 군정 외환 정책에 한인 기업들도 '시름'

•   전자신문: 제조중기, 생산성 '뚝'…특별법 제정 힘 실리나

•   전자신문: LG전자, '스마트 아파트' 수주 연내 10만세대 돌파

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(José Ramos-Horta, Danilo Türk, Laura Chinchilla, 한승수): Managing the Megacrisis of 2022

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Did QE cause inflation?

•   FT(Peter Harrison): The crypto crash has important lessons for asset managers

•   FT(Isabelle Mateos y Lago): The dollar sits atop a global monetary order shaken by sanctions

•   FT(Kathrin Hille): Corporate jitters over Taiwan and China on the rise

•   FT(Lex): Semiconductors: US subsidy vote more about fate of Chinese chipmakers

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Congress Goes All in for Chip Subsidies

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): All the Heat in Europe

•   WSJ(James Freeman): Will Biden and Fauci Consider Leaving Before 2025?

•   WSJ(Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.): Germany’s Energy Crisis and Surrender

•   WSJ(Fred Krupp): Hydrogen Power Isn’t as Green as It Looks

•   WSJ(Jason L. Riley): The Only Thing That Can Re-Elect Joe Biden Is Donald Trump

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Climate Politics Are Worse Than You Think

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Inflation: A Revolution of Falling Expectations

•   NYT(Jenny Schuetz): Why Housing Is So Expensive — Particularly in Blue States

•   NYT(Serge Schmemann): Why Russia Believes It Cannot Lose the War in Ukraine

•   WP(Editorial Board): Don’t stop at the Chips Act, Congress

•   WP(Henry Olsen): Want to help fight climate change? Don’t lift tariffs on Chinese imports.

•   Bloomberg(Maria Tadeo): Europe Energy Crisis: Macron Offers a Road Map to Prepare for Winter

•   Bloomberg(Jessica Karl): Dollar Milkshake Theory Is Not Good News For the Economy

•   Fox News(Liz Peek): Five reasons Joe Biden will not be 2024 Democrat presidential candidate