Global Economic Monitor 220707

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street ends up as investors absorb Fed minutes

※   FOMC minutes published at 2 p.m. EDT

※   Markets endured topsy-turvy trading prior to release

※   Investors watching c.bank's stance on rate hikes, inflation

※   Uber, DoorDash fall as Just Eat agrees Amazon partnership

※   Indexes up: Dow 0.23%, S&P 0.36%, Nasdaq 0.35%

•   Oil: Brent Crude Falls Below $100 for First Time Since Late April

•   Natural gas: European Gas Extends Rally as Russian Supply Risk Stalks Market

•   Metals: Copper hits almost 20-month low as recession fears grip market

•   Grains: Corn, soy, wheat touch multi-month lows in sell-off

•   한국: 코스피, 20개월 만에 2,300 붕괴 마감…환율 13년만에 최고

•   한국: 원화값도 경기침체 불똥…외환당국 1300원대 용인하나

[Indicators]

•   US May Job openings: Hiring Demand Remained Strong in May

•   US Jun. Services PMI(ISM): US Services Gauge Slips to Lowest Level in More Than Two Years

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications(MBA): Mortgage demand sinks even as rates drop

•   Eurozone May Retail sales: Euro zone consumers cut food spending as inflation bites - Eurostat data

•   Germany May Factory orders: German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Rise Amid Darkening Outlook

•   UK Jun. Construction PMI: UK construction activity slowest in nine months -PMI

•   Malaysia Benchmark rate: Malaysia’s Central Bank Raises Benchmark Interest Rate as Expected

•   한국 1분기 자금순환: 고금리에 증시 부진 영향…가계, 주식 팔고 예금 확대

•   한국 상반기 회사채 순발행액: 회사채 시장 '찬바람'…상반기 순발행액 6년 만에 최저

[News]

•   WSJ: Inflation Fears Drove Larger Fed Rate-Increase in June

※   Officials have indicated far less tolerance for high inflation surprises this year

※   Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 14-15, 2022

•   WSJ: Consumers Say 2022 Is the Worst Economy Ever

•   WSJ: Russia’s Tactical Shift in Ukraine Raises Prospect of Protracted War

•   WSJ: Russian and Ukrainian Forces Prepare for Next Phase of Battle for Donbas

•   WSJ: Russia Tensions Threaten Food Supplies for 4 Million Syrians

•   WSJ: Food, Energy Issues Set to Dominate G-20 Meeting of Top Diplomats Amid Ukraine War

•   WSJ: America’s Gridlocked Democracy Struggles to Meet China Challenge

•   WSJ: China Escalates Efforts to Influence U.S. State and Local Leaders, Officials Warn

•   WSJ: Heads of FBI, MI5 Issue Joint Warning on Chinese Spying

•   WSJ: Shanghai Revives Mass Testing as Cases Slip Through China’s Covid Armor

•   WSJ: European Industries Jockey for Scarce Natural Gas

•   WSJ: France’s Macron Confronts Divided Parliament With Plan to Raise Retirement Age

•   WSJ: Covid-19 Vaccine Doses, Once in High Demand, Now Thrown Away

•   WSJ: Batteries Become Do-Or-Die for Air-Taxi Startups

•   WSJ: Rivian Cranked Up Production in Second Quarter at Illinois Factory

•   WSJ: Amazon and Grubhub Strike Deal to Bring Restaurant Delivery to Prime Members

•   NYT: Ukraine’s Herculean Task: Helping Millions Whose Homes Are in Ruins or Russia’s Hands

•   NYT: Europe, Facing Energy Shortages, Moves to Shore Up Providers

•   NYT: How War in Ukraine Roiled Russia’s ‘Coolest Company’

•   WP: Far from Ukraine, Sri Lanka is the epicenter of a global crisis

•   WP: Wealthy Mideast nations boost spending to protect citizens from inflation

•   WP: Top business executives have gotten even more Republican, study finds

•   FT: EU parliament votes to designate gas and nuclear as sustainable

※   Campaigners threaten to sue over ‘shameful’ outcome that will influence investment in energy sources

※   European Commission: EU Taxonomy: Commission welcomes the result of today's vote by the European Parliament on the Complementary Delegated Act

•   FT: French state plans to take full control of EDF

•   FT: ECB’s crisis-fighting scheme risks being tied up in legal and political knots

•   FT: ECB’s new green shift: a ‘distraction’ or just ‘peanuts’?

•   FT: Cabinet ministers call on Boris Johnson to quit as UK prime minister

•   FT: Johnson is doomed, but it could drag on

•   FT: Power seeps away from the prime minister

•   FT: Johnson rejects Sturgeon request for Scottish independence referendum

•   FT: Decision on Newport Wafer Fab deal hit by fresh delay

•   FT: ‘They don’t have good tools’: Biden hunts for elusive inflation fix

•   FT: South-east Asia manufacturers sweat as US mulls tougher tariff rules

•   FT: Japan election offers PM Kishida ‘golden’ chance to reform pacifist constitution

•   FT: Amazon to share more data with rivals after EU antitrust deal

•   FT: Facebook owner Meta to push ahead with digital collectibles plan

•   FT: Will the crypto crash derail the next web revolution?

•   Bloomberg: Recession Risk Climbs for Some Asian Economies, Survey Shows

•   Bloomberg: Wall Street Says a Recession Is Coming. Consumers Say It's Already Here

•   Bloomberg: Inflation Index Powell Watches Is Set to Show a Big Jump

•   Bloomberg: A 10th of the World Is Hungry and War Risks Worsening the Crisis

•   Bloomberg: US Pandemic Checks Had No Lasting Impact on Poor, Study Shows

•   Bloomberg: Biden Turns to Direct Attacks on Trump as Midterm Elections Near

•   Bloomberg: Europe Is at Center of New Wave of Covid Infections, WHO Says

•   Bloomberg: EU’s Sefcovic Signals Possible Trade Retaliation on Brexit Plan

•   Bloomberg: British Business Relishes Prospect of Post-Sunak Tax Relief

•   Bloomberg: Scholz Accuses Putin of Using Natural Gas Deliveries As Weapon

•   Bloomberg: Europe Power Breaks Record as Governments Act to Keep Lights On

•   Bloomberg: Bank of England Says Digital Pounds Unlikely to Work Like Cash

•   Bloomberg: BOE Ready to Act ‘Forcefully’ Against Inflation, Cunliffe Says

•   Bloomberg: China Data Show Economy Shrinking in Challenge to Xi’s Target

•   Bloomberg: Beijing Rolls Out China’s First Ever Covid Vaccine Mandate

•   Bloomberg: China Starts to Pull Cash in Pivot From Crisis Policy Easing

•   Bloomberg: China’s Housing Pain Set to Continue After Sales Bottom

•   Bloomberg: China’s Debt to Climb to Record in 2022, Government Adviser Says

•   Bloomberg: China Accuses US of ‘Technological Terrorism’ as Chip Curbs Grow

•   Bloomberg: Putin Dodges Worst of Economic Pain as Oil Eases Sanctions Hit

•   Bloomberg: China and India Funnel $24 Billion to Putin in Energy Spree

•   Bloomberg: Japan PM Bets on World-Defying Inflation Policy to Win Election

•   Bloomberg: India Relaxes Rules to Boost Foreign Inflows, Stem Rupee Fall

•   Bloomberg: Argentina Subsidy Cuts Mired in Doubt Under Kirchner Ally

•   Bloomberg: Marcos Team Lowers Philippine GDP Growth Range for 2022

•   Bloomberg: Global Corporate Debt Pile Is Shrinking as Funding Costs Surge

•   Bloomberg: Gas Crunch to Haunt Europe for Winters to Come, LNG Lobby Says

•   Bloomberg: Russia Targets Europe With Weaponized Kazakh Crude: Oil Strategy

•   Bloomberg: Mohammad Barkindo, OPEC Secretary-General, Dies at 63

•   Bloomberg: Saudi Oil Pricing Signals Strains of Rising Competition in Asia

•   Bloomberg: Labor Unrest Disrupts Supply Chains From Sky to Sea

•   Bloomberg: Virgin Galactic Taps Boeing for Air Launch Vehicles

•   Bloomberg: Chip Delivery Times Fall by One Day as Companies See Some Relief

•   Bloomberg: German Auto Supplier Desperate for Workers Wants More Immigrants

•   Bloomberg: Tesla Pulled Levers on Pricing and Cost During a Tough Quarter

•   Bloomberg: Big Finance and Activists Slam ‘Disappointing’ EU Gas Vote

•   Reuters: IMF chief says 'cannot rule out' possible global recession

※   IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Reuters the fund would downgrade in coming weeks its 2022 forecast for 3.6% global economic growth for the third time this year

•   Reuters: IMF's Georgieva had 'very good call' with Argentina's new economy chief -tweet

•   Reuters: BoE's Pill sees little or no growth in coming year

•   Reuters: U.S. tightens sanctions on Iran, targets Chinese, Emirati firms over oil

•   Reuters: Mariupol port operating at full capacity, TASS quotes officials

•   Reuters: Analysis: Recession fears deal blow to rare 2022 market winner: US energy shares

•   Reuters: Analysis: Scalded by Russia, investment funds tread carefully in China

•   CNBC: There’s a battle over inflation-linked pay adding to European port contagion

•   CNBC: Toyota hits electric-vehicle sales milestone, joins Tesla and GM in triggering phaseout of tax incentives for buyers

•   CNBC: Apple introduces Lockdown Mode to protect iPhones from state-sponsored hacking

•   MarketWatch: Why a rally in growth stocks could signal ‘peak’ Fed hawkishness has passed

•   MarketWatch: ‘Peak inflation is not here yet’: Rents continue to rise, putting pressure on would-be homebuyers. That’s bad news for the Fed.

•   SCMP: China-US ties: foreign ministers to canvas friction points on G20 sidelines but no breakthrough expected

•   SCMP: US-China relations: Beijing could face double threat from tariffs and Indo-Pacific pact

•   SCMP: China’s debt-fuelled infrastructure investment drive sees record 1.94 trillion yuan bonds sold in June

•   SCMP: Tesla in for further setback after losing EV crown to BYD, as some production is suspended to upgrade Shanghai assembly line

•   Caixin: Caixin Explains: China Takes Another Step to Unshackle Interest Rates

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan daily COVID-19 cases top 45,000, nearly twice last week

•   Nikkei Asia: From mayo to meat, Japan consumers told more price hikes on the way

•   Nikkei Asia: Toyota secures huge lead in solid-state battery patents

•   Nikkei Asia: Food nationalism: Export curbs hit nearly a fifth of global market

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Xi dispatches Fujian aides to polish up 'guns and swords'

•   매경(P1): 믿있던 삼성전자마저…영업이익 예상치 4조 넘게 줄어

•   매경: '증시 마지막 희망' 실적마저 와르르…디스플레이 이익전망 29% 뚝

•   매경: 기업 '투자절벽' 현실화…2분기 설비투자 4분의 1 줄었다

•   매경(P1): [단독] 尹, 나토 회담 성과?…'원전 세일즈'에 英장관 내달 방한

•   매경: [단독] 에너지 자립 다급한 英…'빨리 짓고 기술좋은' K원전에 주목

•   매경: '친환경 우대금융' 혜택으로 자금줄 터줘야

•   매경(P1): 금융당국, 은행에 가산금리 내역 요청

•   매경: "은행별 금리차 한눈에 파악"...고객 잡으려 대출금리 내릴듯

•   매경: "원가공개는 부당한 개입"…은행들 반발 목소리 커져

•   매경: [단독] 애플 구글보다 더 맞았다…'특허괴물' 싸우느라 지친 삼성

•   매경: 11대 그룹 '부산엑스포 유치 드림팀' 꾸렸다

•   매경: 너무 싸진 '네카오'…현금흐름 악화·계열사 상장 부담 극복할까

•   매경: 한방에 두배 세배 먹으려다 탈났다...83% 날린 개미까지

•   매경: 집값 떨어지는데…중대형은 여전히 '꿋꿋'

•   매경: 열대야 여파…6월 평균기온 역대 3위

•   매경: [MK BUSINESS STORY] 화석연료 원전서 너무 빨리 발빼…한국은 유럽 실수 반복하지 말라

•   매경: [Industry Review] 철강기업은 지금 저탄소 전쟁중…한발빠른 '녹색철강' 전환만이 살길

•   매경: [Industry Review] 위기에 꼭 필요한 '원가경쟁력'…도요타에서 배워라

•   한경(P1): 기업 재고 148조원 사상최대

•   한경: 6층짜리 매장 '텅'…"손님보다 직원이 더 많다" 초비상

•   한경: 악성 재고 넘치고 기업 빚만 1500조…복합위기 '트리거' 되나

•   한경: 7% 올리고 15% 더…중소기업 눈물의 '임금 파격 인상'

•   한경(P1): 윤 대통령 "2031년 달착륙선 개발…우주산업 과감히 도전"

•   한경: 윤석열 대통령, 한국판 스페이스X 키운다

•   한경: 출고 10개월 걸리던 '카니발', 이제 5개월이면 나온다

•   한경: 전력수요, 연일 최고치…올여름 '블랙아웃' 우려

•   한경: 60년 시공·설계 겸업 금지, 공공입찰은 '운찰제'…해외 경쟁력 추락

•   한경: 해외 수주 중 돈 되는 투자개발은 10%뿐

•   한경: 부동산 거래 가뭄에 경유값 급등 겹쳐…일감 줄고 경비 늘고 이사업체들 "죽을 맛"

•   한경: SF영화 속 '투명 디스플레이'…우리 옆으로 성큼 다가왔다

•   서경(P1): "내달 전력예비율 5%대 추락…석탄발전 재가동도 고려"

•   서경: 박일준 산업부 차관 "日·대만 전력예비율 고작 3%…韓 버티는 건 24기 원전 덕분"

•   서경: 정동욱 원자력학회장 "에너지믹스, 원전 60%·신재생 40%로"

•   서경(P1): 제2 요소수 사태 막을 '공급망 대책' 내놓는다

•   서경: [단독] '카카오·KB 베팅' 코인투자사, 루나로 267억 날렸다

•   서경: '빅스텝'이냐 '베이비스텝'이냐…고민 깊은 한은

•   서경: 동남아선 툭 하면 비오는데…"주 52시간 맞추면서 공사 언제하나"

•   서경: KDI 독점에 적격성 조사 1177일 걸려…"경쟁체제로 효율성 높여야"

•   서경: "정부 4년간 분양가 통제에 수도권 15만호 공급 차질"

•   서경: 이창양 "中 배제할 이유 없다…中·유럽 모두 중요한 시장"

•   서경: [단독] “12월 출시 G90에 ‘레벨3’ 적용…희토류 안 쓰는 모터 선행개발”

•   서경: LG이노텍, 차세대 반도체 기판·카메라모듈에 1.4조 투자

•   서경: 세계 최대 반도체 장비사, 한국에 'R&D센터'

•   서경: 카카오, 勞 모빌리티 매각 반대에 "10%대 팔아 2대주주 변경 검토"

•   서경: "산 속 캠핑장에도 10분내 상품 배송"…드론 띄운 편의점

•   서경: 하반기 적수 없는 아이폰…부품주 빛본다

•   서경: 채솟값 폭등 뒤엔 농촌 인력난…"일손 부족땐 시급 2만원 이상"

•   조선(P1): “김정은은 미국 믿었지만 시진핑이 北비핵화 방해”

•   조선: 인플레이션은 월급 먹는 하마

•   조선: 수학의 힘, 기업서도 실력 발휘

•   조선비즈: 車전장에서 맞붙은 LG·삼성, 경쟁과 협업으로 판 키운다

•   조선비즈: 尹 대통령 “재정건전성” 외치는데…혈세 낭비 거르는 예타심사는 엉망진창

•   조선비즈: 현대차, 기본급 3.9% 인상안 등 제시… 노조 거부

•   조선비즈: [미래에너지 2022] 예르긴 “급속한 에너지 전환으로 안보 위기… 속도 조절해야”

•   인베스트조선: 돈 쏠 계획 없는 기관들…말라가는 유동성에 PEF 펀드레이징 시장 '찬바람'

•   인베스트조선: 전 부문 수익성 악화 조짐...벌써 자리 걱정 시작된 증권업계

•   인베스트조선: S&P "한국 기업들, 험난한 거시 경제 및 영업 환경에 직면"

•   중앙(P1): ‘소주성’ 홍장표 사의…친문 기관장 기로에

•   중앙: 전문가 “코로나 6차유행 시작…내달 하루 10만명 될 수도”

•   중앙: “걸음마 단계인 탄소중립…K테크가 해결사 역할 할 것”

•   동아(P1): “車협력사 28%가 적자, 완성차 공급망 위기”

•   동아: 中企 “원재료값 48% 올라도 납품가 인상 10%뿐”… 대기업 “납품가 10% 올리면 中企수요 1.5% 줄어”

•   동아: 국민연금 올들어 36조 손실… 1년치 연금 날린 셈

•   동아: 서울 아파트 전셋값… 4년전보다 2억 올라

•   동아: 값싼 中전기버스 한국 공습… 올해 판매 2대중 1대꼴 차지

•   문화(P1): 정치·경제위기 ‘대한민국 리빌딩’ 리더십 회복·통합 해법을 찾는다

•   한국(P1): [단독] 종부세 유턴, 주택 수 대신 가격으로 매긴다... 최고 세율도 절반 인하

•   한국: [단독] 건보재정 4조 감소하는데 정부는 외면... "건보료 19% 뛸 수도"

•   국민: 철도 11년·지하철 7년째 제자리 요금… ‘눈덩이 적자’ 대책은

•   서울: 4년 만에 수주 1위 탈환에도… 인력난에 못 웃는 조선업계

•   서울: 전국 집값 100만원 올랐다면 22만원은 강남 탓

•   서울: [단독] “오세훈표 ‘안심소득’ 尹정부에 건의할 것”

•   한겨레: 3분도 채 안돼 116톤이나…온실가스, 로켓 쏠 때마다 쏟아낸다

•   머니투데이(P1): 하반기 개량 백신 1억회분 더 들여온다는데...정작 새 변이에는 효과 '뚝'

•   머니투데이(P1): "한마음" 외친 첫 고위당정, 물가 등 민생대책 '신속 집행' 강조

•   머니투데이: "수입 소고기·커피·분유 싸질까"...당정, '무관세' 확대 추진

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 잔인한 苦물가…적상춧값 89% 올랐다

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 반도체 세액공제율 30%까지 확대

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 환경부·상의 '규제 개선 핫라인'... 탄소중립 걸림돌 해소 빨라진다

•   아시아경제(P1): "지금은 주식 말고 회사채 사야할 때" 채권시장으로 돈 몰린다

•   아시아경제: [단독]현대차·기아, 신차 탁송료 10% 인상…5개월 만 '↑'

•   디지털타임스: 적자에도 `불법점거` 된 도크… 삼성 이어 대우조선 `비상경영` 돌입

•   이데일리: 상위 10% 월급 980만원…고임금, 물가 더 자극하나

•   이데일리: "밖에서 사먹기 무섭네"…짜장면·삼겹살·냉면 외식비 '쑥'

•   이데일리: 첫 대면부터 방어권·절차 강조한 송옥렬…기대감 커지는 재계

•   이데일리: 코오롱, 수소 생산·저장·발전 다 챙긴다...“밸류체인 플랫폼 구축”

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 1만7507명 확진…지난주 수요일의 거의 2배

•   더구루: [단독] 러 가즈프롬 "가스대금 루블화 결제 확대"…韓 직격탄

•   전자신문(P1): KT, AI 반도체 공략 "국가 미래 먹거리로"

•   전자신문(P1): 삼성, 스마트홈 플랫폼 첫 연동…9월 IFA서 공개

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Joseph S. Nye, Jr.): Will the Ukraine War Fuel Nuclear Proliferation?

•   Project Syndicate(Willem H. Buiter, Anne C. Sibert): Stablecoins, Riskycoins, and Dodgycoins

•   Project Syndicate(Mohamed Adow): Africa Is Not Europe’s Gas Station

•   Project Syndicate(José Luis Chicoma): Food Insecurity Amid Abundance

•   Project Syndicate(Lucrezia Reichlin): Eurozone Divergences Are Back

•   FT(Editorial Board): The departure of Boris Johnson is long overdue

•   FT(Robert Shrimsley): Boris Johnson’s era is at an end as Tories rush for the exit

•   FT(Katie Martin): Pound traders look past UK political turmoil

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): The stock market still has high hopes

•   FT(Benjamin Shatil): Why the yen is down but not necessarily cheap

•   FT(Peggy Hollinger): Europe’s carmakers will still need suppliers to realise their electric dreams

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Biden’s Missing Trade Policy

•   WSJ(Yulia Latynina): The West Needs an Arms Race

•   NYT(Peter Coy): The Economy Is Already Cooling, So Why Is the Fed Dousing It With Cold Water?

•   WP(Editorial Board): A debt crisis in Sri Lanka could spread worldwide. The U.S. must help.

•   WP(George F. Will): Give Ukraine more artillery, and let the Navy break Russia’s blockade

•   WP(Josh Rogin): Biden’s Ukraine strategy risks prolonging a violent stalemate

•   WP(Hatice Cengiz): Dear President Biden: Please don’t break your promise to shun Saudi Arabia

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): A Classic 'Reverse Ferret' Gets Up the Trousers of Markets in Narrative U-turn

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): Boris Johnson’s in Trouble. But the UK Economy’s OK for Now.

•   Bloomberg(Robert Burgess): Bond Traders Are as Confused as Anyone These Days

•   Bloomberg(Martin Ivens): Boris Johnson's Still Standing After Major Resignations. But How Much Longer?

•   Bloomberg(Bobby Ghosh): Who Would Replace Boris Johnson? Here Are His Likely Successors

•   Bloomberg(Adam Minter): Pollution's Impact on China’s Crops Is Worse Than Imagined

•   Bloomberg(Allison Schrager): Big Data's Past Is Messing With Our Future

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Housing Stands in the Way of a September Federal Reserve Pivot

•   CNBC(Brian Sullivan): Energy supply fears have Europe in a panic as it tries to avert a full-blown crisis