Global Economic Monitor 220728

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Nasdaq has biggest one-day jump since 2020 after Fed rate hike

※   Microsoft, Alphabet results spark rally in growth stocks

※   Fed announces rate hike in unanimous decision

※   Indexes: Dow up 1.4%, S&P 500 up 2.6%, Nasdaq up 4.1%

•   US: Widely Watched Yield Curve at Most Inverted in Decades After Fed Hike

•   Natural gas: Energy Prices in Europe Surge After Russia Slashes Gas Flows

※   The flow of gas through the Nord Stream pipeline from Russia to Germany halved on Wednesday.

•   Metals: Copper rises on short-covering and China demand hopes

•   Grains: Soybeans hit two-week high on hot forecast for U.S. Midwest

•   한국: 코스피, 개인 '사자'에 2,410선 안착…FOMC 앞두고 관망세

[Indicators]

•   US Benchmark rate: Fed Raises Interest Rates by 0.75 Percentage Point

※   The central bank acknowledged indicators of spending and output had softened, but said further rate rises are likely

※   Fed: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

※   WSJ: Transcript: Fed Chief Powell’s Postmeeting Press Conference

※   WSJ: How the Fed Could Lose Its Nerve

※   WSJ: Derby’s Take: Even With Rate Increase, Fed Will Still Have Lots of Work to Do

•   US Jun. Goods trade balance: U.S. trade deficit in goods narrows for third straight month in June

•   US Jun. Durable goods orders: Orders for Vehicles, Other Big-Ticket Items Rose in June

•   US Jun. Pending home sales: US Pending Home Sales Drop Most Since April 2020 on Higher Rates

•   US Jun. Wholesale inventories: Inventory Swing Is a Key Culprit Behind U.S. Recession Talk

•   US Jul. Auto sales: U.S. auto sales to fall in July on slim inventories - reports

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications(MBA): Mortgage demand declines further, even as interest rates drop a bit

•   China Jun. Industrial profits: China’s Industrial Profits Rise in June as Covid Curbs Ease

•   한국 2021년 기업무역활동: 수출 성장기업 지난해 22% 줄었다···4년만에 하락세로 반전

•   한국 상반기 중소기업 수출: 상반기 중소기업 수출 605억달러 '역대 최대'

•   한국 상반기 기업 직접금융 조달실적: 금리인상 여파에 올상반기 회사채 발행 96조1천억원…12.7%↓

•   한국 5월 인구: 5월 출생아, 2만명 겨우 넘겼다

•   한국 7월 BSI·ESI: 물가·경기 우려에 기업 체감경기 2개월 연속 악화

•   북한 2021년 GDP: 北 지난해 성장률 -0.1%···1인당 소득 南 28분의 1

[News]

•   WSJ: Senate Approves $280 Billion Bill to Boost U.S. Chipmaking, Technology

※   Bipartisan backers say measure is needed to counter China, while GOP foes say embrace of industrial policy amounts to corporate welfare

•   WSJ: Semiconductor Subsidies, Tariffs Are the Price of Reducing Dependence on China

•   WSJ: U.S., Europe Dig In for Long Economic Standoff With Russia

•   WSJ: Ukraine Strikes Crucial Bridge in Russian-Occupied South

•   WSJ: Biden Tests Negative for Covid-19, Says Recovery Was Quick

•   WSJ: CBO Expects Significant Rise in Public Debt Burden, Deficit

※   CBO: The 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook

•   WSJ: Boise’s Housing Market Boomed Early in the Pandemic. Now It Is Cooling Fast.

•   WSJ: USAID Chief Urges China to Restructure Debts for Fragile Economies

•   WSJ: China’s Wuhan Province Locks Down District With One Million People

•   WSJ: Turkey Launches Monitoring Site for Ukraine-Russia Grain Deal

•   WSJ: The Hail Mary for Investors

•   WSJ: Companies Look for Returns on Cash Piles as Interest Rates Rise

•   WSJ: Facebook Parent Meta Reports First Ever Revenue Drop

•   WSJ: FTC Seeks to Block Meta Platforms From Acquiring Within Unlimited

•   WSJ: Microsoft Asks Google, Oracle to Help Crimp Amazon’s U.S. Government Cloud Leadership

•   WSJ: Microsoft’s Future Outweighs Its Present

•   WSJ: Qualcomm Earnings Outlook Dented by Smartphone Demand Woes

•   WSJ: Boeing Profit Falls as Executives Point to Turnaround

•   WSJ: Airbus, Bogged Down by Supply Chain Woes, Cuts Delivery Target

•   WSJ: The Worst Flight Delays at the World’s Busiest Airports: See the List

•   WSJ: Ford’s Profit Rises on Higher Sales, More Inventory

•   WSJ: Evergrande Creditors Demand Further Explanation for Billions in Seized Cash

•   WSJ: Container Ship Backlog Grows Again at the Port of Savannah

•   WSJ: ‘Make Instagram Instagram Again’: The App’s Evolution Is Causing Users to Question Its Future

•   NYT: Biden Insists There’s No Recession as He Confronts Latest Economic Risk

•   NYT: Manchin, in a Reversal, Agrees to Climate and Tax Package

•   NYT: Biden Is Facing Crisis After Crisis. But Are They Emergencies?

•   NYT: How Bacon and Costco Fish Shape America’s View of Inflation

•   NYT: For Hong Kong’s Beijing-Backed Officials, Xi’s All That

•   NYT: Looming Question for Putin Opponents: Can You Change Russia From Jail?

•   NYT: Bangladesh Seeks I.M.F. Loan as Inflation Rocks South Asia

•   WP: The 8 economists who decide if the U.S. is in a recession

•   WP: New poll shows Biden’s 2024 primary problems aren’t just abstract

•   WP: Taiwan hones invasion response amid China’s threats over Pelosi trip

•   WP: Stop the ‘steal’? Brazil’s Bolsonaro looks poised to start it.

•   FT: How bad will the global food crisis get?

•   FT: Macron wins French legislators’ backing for budget to tackle inflation

•   FT: Italy told to retain €200bn Covid recovery plan after Draghi exit

•   FT: Hungary’s economic woes force Viktor Orbán to bow to EU and investors

•   FT: Will the next Tory prime minister forget about levelling up the UK?

•   FT: What does Boris Johnson’s exit mean for the UK’s green agenda?

•   FT: UK energy bills for most vulnerable to hit £500 a month in January

•   FT: Long Covid to leave lasting mark on UK economy, says IFS

•   FT: Nationwide rail strike disrupts travel for millions in UK

•   FT: US warns of surge in fuel costs as it renews push for Russian oil price cap

•   FT: Top US regulator fires warning shot after Apple’s push into lending

•   FT: India’s roaring post-pandemic recovery at risk from inflation

•   FT: Tunisians back new constitution increasing president’s powers

•   FT: The white elephants stoking fury over Sri Lanka’s debt crisis

•   FT: Turkey’s new power plant exposes ‘huge contradictions’ of net zero pledge

•   FT: El Salvador seeks to allay default fears with sovereign bond buyback

•   FT: Mining outlook darkens as twin threats loom

•   FT: Oil and gas majors: time for a transformative clean energy deal?

•   Bloomberg: Taming Inflation Without Hurting GDP Hard But Possible, IMF Says

•   Bloomberg: Positive Second-Quarter US Growth Chances Improve on Trade Data

•   Bloomberg: Pelosi Taiwan Trip in Limbo as Officials Plan East Asia Stops

•   Bloomberg: China-US Deal Needed Very Soon to Avoid Delistings, SEC’s Gensler Says

•   Bloomberg: US Risks Losing Billions in Taxes as Congress Spurns Global Deal

•   Bloomberg: Easing US Pump Prices Draw More Drivers to the Road, for Now

•   Bloomberg: Dudley Says Fed Will Hike Rates Much Further Than What Markets Expect

•   Bloomberg: Senate’s Antitrust Crackdown Sputters as Schumer Signals Doubts

•   Bloomberg: Russian Economic Pain Spreads Unevenly as Sanctions Shock Fades

•   Bloomberg: Gazprom, Siemens Spar Over Turbine Maintenance Slowing Gas Flows

•   Bloomberg: Germany Approves $180 Billion Funding to Accelerate Energy Shift

•   Bloomberg: Italy Rightist Bloc Boosts Meloni With Deal on Premier Candidate

•   Bloomberg: JPMorgan Cuts ECB Rate Outlook, Sees Year-End Recession

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Sees Euro-Area Recession in Second Half of This Year

•   Bloomberg: UK Businesses Say Exports Stalled Due to Brexit and Inflation

•   Bloomberg: UK Housing Market to Slow, Says Biggest Mortgage Lender Lloyds

•   Bloomberg: Xi Says China Faces More Complicated Challenges, Xinhua Reports

•   Bloomberg: What to Watch for in China's Politburo Meeting, From Property Crisis to Covid Zero

•   Bloomberg: The Chinese Megacity Where Masks Are Rare and Clubs Are Packed

•   Bloomberg: China’s Blistering Heat Strains Power Grids and Disrupts Farming

•   Bloomberg: China Question Looms Large as EM Distressed-Debt Club Grows

•   Bloomberg: Crippling Energy Crisis Set to Worsen for Debt-Ridden South Asia

•   Bloomberg: Lula Says His Economy Chief Would Be Political, Not Bureaucrat

•   Bloomberg: Oil Flows From Russia Eat Into Mideast, US Share in India Market

•   Bloomberg: Record US Oil Exports Set to Grow as WTI Discount Deepens

•   Bloomberg: Saudis to Hike Oil Price to Record Even as Traders See Risks

•   Bloomberg: Alphabet, Microsoft Spur Hope Tech Can Handle Slow Economy

•   Bloomberg: Gartner Slashes Chip Industry Forecast After PC Demand Slumps

•   Bloomberg: Solar Panel Costs Rise in Climate Change Threat as Longi Boosts Prices

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: US Automakers Face Union Pressure to Ease Inflation’s Bite on Wages

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Housing Affordability Crisis Increases Odds of Recession

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Market Crash Hedges Can Help Investors Survive a Recession

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Inflation, EV Workers Among Issues as UAW Negotiations Near

•   Reuters: Russian forces capture Ukraine's second biggest power plant, Ukraine says

•   Reuters: Breakingviews: Russia is giving German industry a slow puncture

•   Reuters: Russian official says grain deal could collapse unless obstacles to Russian exports lifted

•   Reuters: Cost of living crisis? Consumers keep spending for now

•   Reuters: WHO says more than 18,000 cases of monkeypox globally, most in Europe

•   Reuters: Iran welcomes nuclear diplomacy, urges U.S. to show interest

•   Reuters: Analysis: Investors gauge U.S. stocks rebound: 'suckers' rally' or market bottom?

•   Reuters: Analysis: Fund managers play the long game on inflation

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. yield curve flashing more warning signs of recession risks ahead

•   AP: US economy sending mixed signals: Here’s what it all means

•   AP: Ukraine’s grain is ready to go. But ships aren’t. Why? Risk

•   AP: AP Exclusive: Philippines scraps Russian chopper deal

•   CNBC: Biden’s call with Xi Jinping will focus on areas of U.S.-China cooperation, not just tension

•   CNBC: Dr. Fauci: BA.5-specific booster shots are the country’s ‘best guess’ for dealing with Covid this fall

•   CNBC: This map shows the massive gas pipeline that Russia and China are building

•   SCMP: China, South Korea renew service sector talks, opening up a ‘win-win for both economies’

•   SCMP: South Korea’s risky ‘Kill Chain’ plans to counter North Korea nuclear threat may raise eyebrows in China

•   SCMP: Call between Xi and Biden won’t break China-US deadlock, observers say

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: China’s travel sector sees ‘revenge’ rebound, but outbreaks and lockdowns loom large

•   SCMP: China ‘confident’ on 2030 climate goal as summer heatwaves worsen global energy crisis

•   SCMP: Will Chinese President Xi Jinping be given the formal title of ‘the people’s leader’?

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan to weigh approaching COVID-19 like the flu

•   Nikkei Asia: BYD cuts into Tesla's lead in global EV sales, reaching No. 2

•   Nikkei Asia: Robot maker Fanuc's profit up 5% as EV industry drives record sales

•   Nikkei Asia: Scandal-hit carbon credits need universal standards: experts

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Xi opens Beijing's heavy gates to receive Jokowi

•   Economic Times: Why the worst of rupee's fall could be over

•   Economic Times: Geopolitical conflict to keep oil prices up, CAD under stress: Govt to Parliament

•   매경(P1): 진격의 K방산…폴란드에 19조 수출

•   매경: 7개월만에 5년치 수출 달성한 K방산…세계 톱5가 보인다

•   매경: 韓, 폴란드에 전투기 전차 수출...우크라 전쟁 덕분?

•   매경(P1): "대체근로 늘려달라"…경영계, 정부에 건의

•   매경: 허용범위, 사회적 대타협으로 조율

•   매경: 노조에 기울어진 운동장…대체근로 확대로 勞使균형 맞출 필요

•   매경: 法개정 추진땐 사회적 대타협으로 조율

•   매경(P1): 4조원이 쓱…수상한 코인송금, 해외로 빠져나가

•   매경: 삼성전자 임원 48명, 자사주 100억어치 샀다…얼마에 샀을까

•   매경: 용산개발 발맞춰 UAM법 내달 뜬다

•   매경: "韓 사드 3不 유지해야"…중국, 尹정부 압박

•   매경: 5년 단위론 위기대응 한계…30년 재정전략 새판 짠다

•   매경: 지방저축은행 연체율 오른다…'부실뇌관' 되나

•   매경: "금융 불확실성이 커지면서 위험상황 구체화되고 있어"

•   매경: "아이폰 고마워"...비수기 비웃는 실적 내놓은 이 회사

•   매경: SK, 美에 반도체 패키징 공장…300억달러 對美투자

•   매경: '로또 줍줍' 진짜 옛말 됐네...청약 미달, 계약 포기 속출

•   매경: 국토부·법무부 임대차2법 개선 착수

•   한경(P1): [단독] "30억 빚, 최대 9억 깎아준다"…자영업자 '파격 탕감' 논란

•   한경(P1): 윤석열 대통령, 공정위원장에 홍대식 내정

•   한경: 덩치 커져 계륵 된 지역화폐…지자체, 재정 부담에 골머리

•   한경: 윤 대통령-조코위 28일 정상회담…인도네시아 新행정수도 건설 손잡는다

•   한경: 신성환 위원 합류에…금통위, 매파-비둘기파 팽팽

•   한경: LG화학, 美 GM에 전기차 500만대분 양극재 공급

•   한경: "주인 바뀌고 주머니 사정 좋아졌네"…현대두산인프라코어, 14년 만에 배당

•   한경: LGD, 국내 LCD TV패널 사업 접는다

•   한경: "자재값 급등에도 공사비 제자리"…공공임대 건설 '삐걱'

•   한경: 확진 10만명…"가족돌봄 휴가땐 최대 50만원"

•   한경: 햄버거 6900원…패스트푸드 2차 가격 인상 '러시'

•   서경(P1): '인재 블랙홀' 된 美 사막…韓은 싸울 두뇌가 없다

•   서경: 국내서 키운 인재, 구글·테슬라에 다 뺐긴다…'脫코리아' 왜

•   서경: 이공계 박사 28% "외국행 희망"…해외서 학위 따도 65%가 "안 돌아갈 것"

•   서경: TSMC·인텔, 섭씨 40도에도 증설 한창…애리조나 '사막의 新오아시스'로 인재 빨아들여

•   서경(P1): [단독] 與 반도체특위, 반도체 R&D·설비 투자 稅공제 25%까지 늘린다

•   서경: "세계는 보조금 전쟁인데 한국은 쥐꼬리"…화평·화관법도 손질

•   서경: 日, 기옥시아에 9000억 쏟고 TSMC공장 유치

•   서경: 美 마이크론의 반격…232단 낸드 첫 양산

•   서경: [단독] 해외건설 근로자 5년새 반토막…"수주해도 일할 사람 없어"

•   서경: 해외건설 근로자 소득공제 10년째 제자리…업계 "상향해달라"

•   서경: "인허가 늦어 공기 연장…비자 발급 국가간 공조도 안돼"

•   서경: 고철 수출 통제에…철강, 탄소감축 '골머리'

•   서경: "기준금리 0.25%P 올리면 소비 최대 0.15% 줄어"

※   한국은행: 금리 상승의 내수 부문별 영향 점검

•   서경: 쌍용차 “채권 6%만 현금변제”…채권단 반발

•   서경: 대내외 리스크에 기업 24% ‘R&D 중도 포기’

•   조선(P1): [단독] 금융 당국, 공매도 제도 보완 등을 위한 긴급 회의

•   조선: 민노총 집회, 文정부 때 4배 폭증... ‘기소 의견’은 되레 줄어

•   조선: 국민통합위 출범… 기업상생·세대·젠더·노사 문제 푼다

•   조선: 그로스 해커·데브옵스엔지니어... 이런 직업 들어봤나요?

•   조선: [단독] 文정부 탄중위, “NDC 불가능” 보고 묵살하고 40% 감축 발표 강행

•   조선: 文 추진하던 ‘도시재생’ 전면 개편...재개발 허용, 사업지도 절반 이하로 축소

•   조선: 네이버 21%, 카카오는 30% 실적 전망치 확 줄었다... 주가는 반토막

•   조선비즈: “하반기, 경기침체로 국내 경제성장률 부진 전망”

•   조선비즈: ‘진짜 5G 28㎓’ 활용 방안 놓고 고민 깊어진 정부·통신3사

•   조선비즈: [단독] 한·인니 정상회담에 원희룡 장관 배석…국토부 ‘해외건설’ 확대 본격 시동

•   중앙(P1): 사면 핵심명단 곧 보고…尹의 고민은 이재용·신동빈이 아니다

•   중앙: [View & Review] TSMC, 한국에 GAA 특허 집중 출원…공장도 없는데 왜?

•   중앙: 메모리도 안심 못한다…‘미래형 D램’ 특허 늘리는 마이크론·TSMC

•   문화(P1): ‘미래 먹거리’ 바이오헬스 육성 규제 풀어 13조원 투자 활성화

•   문화(P1): 경총, 기업형벌규정 등 규제개선 121건 대정부 건의

•   문화: 휴가철 ‘식당 쉽니다’ 팻말 실종

•   한국(P1): "노동 지옥 조선소, 우린 살기 위해 떠났다"... 호황에도 인력 썰물

•   한국: 기업들 '타깃 투자' 속도 낸다..."비상 경영이지만 미래 투자는 아끼지 않는다"

•   국민: 투자 신중하던 삼성SDI, 승부수 띄운 까닭

•   국민: 종부세 인하에 매물 속속 회수… 취득세 개편안 못꺼내는 정부

•   한겨레: 마트휴업·최저임금 정책을 ‘인기투표’로 결정하겠다는 대통령실

•   한겨레: 하루에 수소 7톤 생산…수도권 1호 평택기지 8월부터 가동

•   한겨레: 투자에서 저축으로…‘6개월 미만’ 예·적금 잔액 62% 증가

•   경향: 중대재해법 6개월…이달 ‘법 적용 사업장’ 사망사고 3배

•   머니투데이(P1): 현대차그룹 "우주로 간다"...로봇으로 달 표면 탐사 기술 개발

•   머니투데이: 정의선의 로보틱스·메타모빌리티 비전, 달에서 현실로

•   머니투데이(P1): 이미 1132억 밀려있는데…대우조선, 내년 2300억 이자폭탄

•   헤럴드경제(P1): SK하이닉스 2분기매출 13조 돌파 ‘사상최대’

•   디지털타임스: [단독] 대북송금 루트땐 국내은행 美 제재대상… 딜레마에 빠진 尹정부

•   디지털타임스: 기업 "해외 구매 REC도 국내 조달 인정해달라"

•   디지털타임스: 산업연 "韓 OLED 종합역량, 中·日보다 우위"

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 8만5534명 확진…전날보다 1만2083명 적어

•   연합: 작년 우주산업 경제 규모 616조원…로켓·위성 생산 9%↑

•   SBS: [단독] "칩4로 공급망 안정" 한국에 첫 공개 요청

•   전자신문(P1): 간편결제, 웨어러블로 확산

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Lars P. Feld, et al.): The ECB’s Toxic Bond-Purchase Program

•   Project Syndicate(Otmar Issing): The ECB’s Political Overreach

•   Project Syndicate(Yi Fuxian): Leaked Data Show China’s Population Is Shrinking Fast

•   Project Syndicate(Andrés Velasco): Argentina’s Never-Ending Tragic Farce

•   FT(Editorial Board): China’s emerging Belt and Road debt crisis

•   FT(Edward Luce): US and China are entering a trap of their own making

•   FT(Myles McCormick): While Europe learns energy frugality, US sticks to guzzling

•   FT(Claudia Sahm): A Fed-induced recession is a medicine worse than the disease

•   FT(Alan Beattie): The euro’s drama is not an existential crisis

•   FT(Lex): Palm oil: producers fumble a chance to fatten margins

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Semiconductor Subsidy Strings Attached

•   WSJ(James Freeman): Sharkflation!

•   WSJ(Kyle Isakower): Export Ban Would Mean Higher Gas Prices for Americans

•   NYT(Thomas L. Friedman): Biden’s Big, Bold, Surprising Plan for a Green Transition (I Hope)

•   NYT(Peter Coy): Is the U.S. Economy Growing or Not?

•   NYT(Thomas B. Edsall): Red and Blue America Will Never Be the Same

•   NYT(Spencer Bokat-Lindell): Can Democrats Avoid a Midterm Wipeout?

•   NYT(Samuel Charap, Jeremy Shapiro): The U.S. and Russia Need to Start Talking Before It’s Too Late

•   WP(Editorial Board): The Chips Act has only gotten better. Now it’s the House’s turn to act.

•   WP(Editorial Board): Pelosi should go to Taiwan — when the time is right

•   WP(Max Boot): The U.S. is a lot stronger than Russia. We should act like it.

•   WP(E.J. Dionne Jr.): The chips bill means the Era of Hands-Off Government is over

•   WP(Charles Lane): Is the U.S. economy about to slip on a banana?

•   WP(Sebastian Mallaby): Can the West muster the will to face down Russia?

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): Why the Fed Should Keep an Open Mind

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): Brazil’s Democracy Needs More Friends in High Places

•   Bloomberg(Conor Sen): Low-Income Consumers Get a Break, But It Might Be Brief

•   Bloomberg(Andy Mukherjee): Global Banks Can Ride India’s Dollar Crunch In Style -- 2013 Style

•   Bloomberg(Julian Lee): OPEC+ Walks a Fine Line on Oil Output: Elements by Julian Lee

•   Bloomberg(Nir Kaissar): Do You Think the Fed Hasn’t Done Enough? Think Again

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Bernstein): Midterm Elections 2022: The Political Guessing Game Just Got Weirder

•   Bloomberg(Andreas Kluth): Solar Panel Costs Rise in Climate Change Threat as Longi Boosts Prices

•   Bloomberg(Stephen Mihm): Strong Dollar Always Clobbers Developing Nations

•   Bloomberg(Martin Peers): Alphabet Investors Shouldn’t Ignore the Warning Signs

•   Bloomberg(Julianna Goldman): The Evolving Threats From China and Russia

•   Bloomberg(Maria Tadeo): After Mario Draghi, Italy Must Avoid Rekindling Its Romance with Russia

•   CNN(David Wilcox): The toughest part of the Fed's job may already be done

•   Fox News(Michael R. Pompeo): Time to ditch communist China's technology, or else