Global Economic Monitor 220706

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: S&P 500, Nasdaq end higher as investors eye economic path

※   U.S. May factory orders rise more than expected

※   Energy shares tumble, technology shares up

※   Dow down 0.42%, S&P 500 up 0.16%, Nasdaq up 1.75%

•   Global: Strong U.S. Dollar Sends Euro, Yen to More Than Decade Lows

※   Soaring energy prices darken economic prospects in Europe and elsewhere, prompting flight to the U.S. currency

•   Oil: Oil Prices Pulled Lower by Dimming Demand

※   West Texas Intermediate crude closes below $100 a barrel for first time since May

•   Natural gas: Europe Gas Holds Near 4-Month High With Focus on Tight Supplies

•   Metals: Copper lurches lower as dollar jumps and speculators flee

•   Grains: U.S. grain, soy futures fall on recession fears, Midwest rains

•   한국: 코스피, 기관·외국인 매수에 닷새 만에 반등…2,340대 회복

[Indicators]

•   Global May Smartphone sales: 10년만에 두번째…스마트폰 월 판매량 1억 대 붕괴

•   US May Factory orders: U.S. factory orders rise more than expected in May

•   US Jun. Logistics managers' index: US Logistics Gauge Shows Economy Downshifting Into Second Half

•   China Jun. Caixin New Economy Index: Caixin’s New Economy Index Gains on Labor, Capital Investment Growth

•   China Jun. Services PMI(Caixin): China Services Recovers Stronger Than Expected: Caixin PMI

•   Japan FY 2021 tax revenue: Japan’s Tax Income Hits Record For Second Year Running

•   Japan Jun. Employment: India June Employment Rate at Two-Year Low, CMIE’s Vyas Says

•   India Jun. Services PMI: India Services Expands at Fastest in 11 years on Demand Revival

•   한국 6월 CPI: 6월 소비자물가 6.0% 급등…외환위기 이후 약 24년만에 최고

※   매경: 7% 고물가 쓰나미…이달 전기 가스료 줄인상

※   매경: "고물가 2~3년 갈것…수요억제 정책도 검토를"

※   매경: 한은, 이달 첫 빅스텝 가시권

•   한국 중소기업 하반기 경기전망지수: 하반기 경기전망지수 87.6… 전년대비 4p 하락

[News]

•   WSJ: Janet Yellen and China’s Top Trade Negotiator Discuss Tariffs on Call

※   U.S. Treasury Department describes conversation as ‘candid and substantive’

•   WSJ: Russian Army Turns Ukraine’s Largest Nuclear Plant Into a Military Base

•   WSJ: NATO Advances Sweden, Finland Toward Membership as Fighting Rages in Eastern Ukraine

•   WSJ: Sanctions Threaten Russia’s Next Huge Oil Field

•   WSJ: Food and Energy Inflation Spur New Social Spending Around the World

•   WSJ: Why Consumers’ Inflation Psychology Is Stoking Anxiety at the Fed

•   WSJ: Americans Tap Pandemic Savings to Cope With Inflation

•   WSJ: Red States Are Winning the Post-Pandemic Economy

•   WSJ: BA.5 Subvariant Drives Majority of Recent Covid-19 Cases

•   WSJ: The Health Risks of Getting Covid-19 a Second (or Third) Time

•   WSJ: U.N. Atomic Chief Warns of Growing Nuclear Risks

•   WSJ: World War II Bombs Hamper Germany’s Retreat From Russian Gas

•   WSJ: Accelerating Inflation in Asia Puts Pressure on Central Banks to Raise Rates

•   WSJ: U.A.E. Trade Provides Iran With Western Goods, From Perfume to Laptops

•   WSJ: EU Lawmakers Approve Sweeping Digital Regulations

•   WSJ: Amazon, Microsoft, Google Strengthen Grip on Cloud

•   WSJ: Ford’s U.S. Sales Increase 32% in June, Outpacing Broader Industry

•   WSJ: Cost of Going Green Surges as Companies Seek Renewable-Energy Shift

•   NYT: Russia Advances Behind Brutal Barrage, but Will Its Strategy Keep Working?

•   NYT: As Russia Moves on Another Province, Ukrainians Leave Ghost Towns Behind

•   NYT: Nuclear Power Gets New Push in U.S., Winning Converts

•   NYT: Covid Outbreak Emerges in China’s Anhui Province

•   NYT: A Poor Country Made Bitcoin a National Currency. The Bet Isn’t Paying Off.

•   NYT: Italy Faces Worst Drought in Decades as Europe Feels the Heat

•   NYT: Is gas green?

•   WP: U.S. Aims to Expand Export Bans on China Over Security and Human Rights

•   WP: A growing movement against illegal war

•   WP: After invasion of Ukraine, a reckoning on Russian influence in Austria

•   WP: How Wall Street Escaped the Crypto Meltdown

•   FT: Europe power prices hit new high in wake of Russian gas supply cuts

•   FT: ‘It used to feel nice here’: Russian threats stoke tensions on Lithuania’s borders

•   FT: Norway’s government halts oil and gas strike

•   FT: Johnson on the brink after Sunak and Javid quit cabinet

※   Chancellor and health secretary resign in wake of row over British PM’s honesty

•   FT: Tory MPs abandon Johnson’s sinking ship

•   FT: The truth starts to catch up with the prime minister

•   FT: Cabinet heavyweights deal Johnson potentially fatal blows

•   FT: Bank of England warns UK economic outlook has ‘deteriorated markedly’

•   FT: A Fed funds rate dislocation

•   FT: ‘Afraid for the freedoms’: Opposition warns over Tunisia’s new constitution

•   FT: Who pays for climate change? The Peruvian suing a German utility

•   FT: Gulf oil cash becomes a magnet for global money managers

•   FT: Oil could be weaponised next

•   FT: TikTok abandons ecommerce expansion in Europe and US

•   Bloomberg: US Recession Chances Surge to 38%, Bloomberg Economics Model Says

•   Bloomberg: Morgan Stanley Says US Growth Slowdown Worse Than Expected

•   Bloomberg: The Global Energy Crisis Just Got Even Worse. Here's Why

•   Bloomberg: Natural Gas Soars 700%, Becoming Driving Force in the New Cold War

•   Bloomberg: Biden Will Get Little Inflation Relief If He Eases China Tariffs

•   Bloomberg: Germany Faces Limited Options If Nord Stream Flows Don’t Return

•   Bloomberg: Macron’s Inflation-Busting Policies Are Running Out of Steam

•   Bloomberg: Macron Under Pressure to Tax ‘Superprofits’ of Big Energy Firms

•   Bloomberg: BOE’s Tenreyro Says Moving Earlier on Inflation Would Have Cost Jobs

•   Bloomberg: Shanghai Lockdown Fears Linger as Districts Launch Mass Testing

•   Bloomberg: China’s Roads Are Bustling Again, But Covid Concerns Still Linger

•   Bloomberg: China Regional Congresses Put Xi on Track for Autumn Reshuffle

•   Bloomberg: US Envoy Says Latest Iran Nuclear Talks Were ‘Wasted Occasion’

•   Bloomberg: Lula Reassures Brazilian Billionaires Wary of Leftist Turn

•   Bloomberg: Philippines’ Marcos Open to Military Exchanges With China

•   Bloomberg: Inflation Blowout Can’t Derail Growth in Top Two Arab Economies

•   Bloomberg: Eskom Irks South Africa’s ANC as Energy Crisis Drags On

•   Bloomberg: Gazprom Bondholders Face Dollar, Franc Coupon Payment Delays

•   Bloomberg: ‘This Is a Recession Trade’: Stocks, Yields, Oil All Decline

•   Bloomberg: Citi Says Oil May Collapse to $65 by the Year-End on Recession

•   Bloomberg: Gasoline Market in the US Is Finally Starting to Cool Down

•   Bloomberg: Global Gas Demand Growth Forecast to Falter for Years, IEA Says

•   Bloomberg: American Factories Are Making Stuff Again as CEOs Take Production Out of China

•   Bloomberg: US Wants Dutch Supplier to Stop Selling Chipmaking Gear to China

•   Bloomberg: UK Tech Firm Says It Lost Factory After Chinese Firm’s Buyout

•   Bloomberg: Geely Aims to Bring Driverless Cars to China With Satellites

•   Bloomberg: ECB Test of Bank Climate Risk Deals Far Softer Blow Than Feared

•   Bloomberg: Heat Waves in Europe Are Made Worse by Changes on the Jet Stream

•   Reuters: Russia pounds Ukraine's Donetsk region after seizing Luhansk

•   Reuters: EU's green gas and nuclear investment rules head for final vote

•   Reuters: Exclusive: China plans $75 billion infrastructure fund to revive economy

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Kyiv asks Turkey to probe three more Russian ships it alleges transported stolen grain

•   Reuters: Oil from U.S. reserves head overseas as gasoline prices stay high

•   Reuters: OPEC's Barkindo says Venezuelan, Iranian oil could ease energy crisis

•   Reuters: Analysis: Inflation, not deflation, is now Japan's political hot potato as election looms

•   CNBC: The world’s most powerful tidal turbine just got a major funding boost

•   Fox Business: Stuart Varney on Biden's economics: It can't be good when communists think he's right

•   SCMP: China inflation: Beijing ready to tap pork reserves as global price rises hit closer to home

•   Nikkei Asia: Tokyo's daily COVID cases top 5,000, 1st time since late April

•   Nikkei Asia: China lockdowns, Ukraine, inflation dent ASEAN+3 growth forecast

•   Nikkei Asia: The next wolf warriors: China readies new generation of tough diplomats

•   매경(P1): [단독] 요소수에 놀란 정부…활성탄 '긴급 수급조절물자' 지정

※   산업부: ｢새정부 에너지정책 방향｣ 국무회의 의결

•   매경: 탈원전 폐기' 공식화…신한울 3·4호기 공론화없이 2024년 착공

•   매경: 외환거래 사전신고 의무 폐지…해외 송금 편해진다

•   매경: [단독] 尹, 누리호 성공 발판 삼아 이번주 우주정책 내놓는다

•   매경: 이복현 한마디에 건설사들 벌벌…"부동산PF 전수조사"

•   매경: 포스코그룹 "2030년 이차전지 소재 매출 41조"

•   매경: 이재용 부회장, 日게이단렌 회장단과 연쇄 회동

•   매경: LG전자 전장사업 날개 달았다…상반기 신규수주 8조원 달성

•   매경: 카톡 앱으로 번진 구글·카카오 플랫폼 전쟁

•   매경: 달러빚 급증에…한전·가스公 환손실 10배

•   매경: 코스피 한달새 14% 하락할때, 공매도 상위 10종목 22% '뚝'

•   매경: 증시 악화에 퇴직연금펀드서도 돈 빠진다

•   매경: 수요 탄탄하고 車반도체 숨통…자동차株 실적 기대감

•   한경(P1): 버블 붕괴 경험한 日, '쥐꼬리 수익' 예금에 연금 묵힌다

•   한경(P1): [단독] LG엔솔, 日트럭 공략…1조 규모 배터리 공급

•   한경: "원자재 슈퍼 사이클 끝났다"…철강·비철금속 업체들 '직격탄'

•   한경: 정부, 제분업체에 밀가루 가격 4% 지원

•   한경: 與, 1주택자 종부세 과세 기준 11억→14억으로 상향키로

•   한경: 못 돌려준 전세보증금 '역대 최대'

•   한경: "소득 적은 2030, 이젠 '영끌'도 못해"…'패닉바잉' 멈추나

•   서경(P1): 잠깨는 퇴직연금 92조…'연금 백만장자' 길 열린다

•   서경: 年수익률 3%P 오르면 28년 뒤 1억差…'쥐꼬리 퇴직연금' 뗀다

•   서경: 디폴트옵션 상품, 판매사별 7~10개 '10월 중' 선정 전망

•   서경: 근로자가 한번은 선택…'원리금보장형' 비중 높을 듯

•   서경: 노동계 원로 "노동개혁 더 못늦춰…관행·의식·제도 싹 바꿔야"

•   서경: 전력수요 90GW 돌파…폭염에 연일 최고치 경신

•   서경: 마트·골목상권 다 못살린 의무휴업…"지자체에 자율성 줘야"

•   서경: 적합업종 지정됐던 김치, 중국산에 잠식…"규제보다 유통·기술 협력이 진짜 상생"

•   서경: 강제동원 배상 민관협의회, 3가지 난제 넘을까

•   서경: 외환시장 충격 안전판…"美·日 통화스와프 서둘러야"

•   서경: 쌍용차 4년만의 신차 ‘토레스’ 공식 출시…“2년내 경영정상화 이룬다”

•   서경: 전경련 “미래산업 4T 지원정책 필요”

•   서경: [단독] "돈줄 말랐다"…스타트업 투자, 3분의 1로 '뚝'

•   조선(P1): 오미크론 새 변이 BA.5 전파력 높아... “9~10월 폭증 가능성”

•   조선: 강남3구도 흔들린다… 잠실 ‘엘리트’ 억 단위로 뚝

•   조선: 카메라 명가 손잡고 ‘폰카전쟁’ 선전포고

•   조선비즈: 태풍의 계절 시작… 해상풍력, 초속 70m 강풍도 버틴다

•   조선비즈: 혈세로 메워야 하는 적자성 국가 채무 비율 60.3%...“관리 목표 뚜렷하게 제시해야”

•   조선비즈: 노무라 “한은, 7월 기준금리 0.25%p 인상…빅스텝 가능성 낮아”

•   조선비즈: 日정부, 게이단렌 尹대통령에 한일회담 요청에 “결정된 것 없어”

•   조선비즈: 재건축 공사비 올려도 유찰… 서울서도 시공사 찾기 어려워졌다

•   조선비즈: 전력 도매가격, 상한제 도입 앞두고 급등 조짐

•   조선비즈: 환경규제 바람타고… 대형 상선, 다시 ‘돛’ 단다

•   조선비즈: 자금줄 마른 한전, 회사채 이어 기업어음도 돌려막기

•   인베스트조선: '코스피는 글로벌 경기 인덱스'...작은 이슈에도 번갈아 냉온탕

•   인베스트조선: '4%→6%' 인수금융 부담도 '쑥'…수익률 부담에 M&A 시장 위축 우려도

•   중앙(P1): ‘위원회 구조조정’ 대통령 직속위 70% 없앤다

•   중앙: 요즘 '쪽방촌' 출근하는 박용만..."3년전 뇌졸중, 내 삶 바꿨다" [속엣팅]

•   JTBC: [단독] 편의점주들 '심야 물건값 5% 인상' 예고…"인건비 못 버텨"

•   문화(P1): 尹 “고물가·민생 위기… 공공부문 허리띠 졸라매겠다”

•   문화: “기름값 무서워 LPG車로 개조”

•   국민: 그린수소·태양광… 종합상사들 ‘친환경 에너지’에 미래 건다

•   서울: 고물가 쇼크에… ‘국민고통지수’ 최고치 찍었다

•   한겨레: 상반기 서울 아파트값 3년 만에 하락…강남4구·용산은 빼고

•   머니투데이(P1): '尹동기' 송옥렬 공정위원장 후보 "대기업 총수, 당연히 만난다"

•   머니투데이: 건설사 상반기 정비사업 수주 실적 '극'과 '극'...독일까 득일까

•   머니투데이: "16억 아파트, 12억 됐다"…GTX로 뜬 아파트들의 비명

•   헤럴드경제: 규제했다 혼난 日·기술 필요한 韓...반도체 협력에 공감대

•   헤럴드경제: 3분기 메모리 반도체 수익성 악화 ‘빨간불’

•   파이낸셜뉴스: LNG선 쓸어담은 K조선, 올 수주목표 74% 달성

•   아시아경제(P1): 5월 한미 밀월 때…中, 한국 공급망 약점 집중조사했다

•   아시아경제: 中 의존도 50% 넘는 품목 1000여개…세계 공급망 올라타야

•   아시아경제: K-반도체 ‘약점’ 후공정 키운다[新 경제안보 지형도]

•   이데일리(P1): 100만원 넣고 30배 먹는다…주식판 깨지자 도박판 열렸다

•   이데일리: 한탕 노리고 해외파생투자…가진 돈 다 날리고 후회도

•   이데일리: 마진 거래 달려드는 '코인 개미'…100배 벌려다 쪽박

•   이데일리: [르포]"세일해요" 소리에 귀 '쫑긋'…그래도 비싸서 '주저'

•   이데일리: "고물가에 발길 돌릴라"... 고객발길 붙잡기에 안간힘 쏟는 유통가

•   이데일리: 남들은 주식 쪼갤 때 합치는 코스닥 기업들…효과는 '글쎄'

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 1만8천606명 확진…지난주 화요일의 2배 육박

•   연합: 치솟는 물가에 도시 중산층 근로자가구 실질소득은 감소

•   연합: 수소 분야 투자 활성화…5천억원 규모 수소펀드 출범

•   전자신문(P1): “반도체 초격차 컨트롤타워 시급…국회 나서야”

•   전자신문: 글로벌 팹리스 톱 10, 1분기 매출 급상승

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Dani Rodrik): The New Productivism Paradigm?

•   Project Syndicate(Harold James): All That Is Solid Melts into Inflation

•   FT(Martin Wolf): Cryptocurrencies are not the new monetary system we need

•   FT(Robert Shrimsley): This is the endgame for Boris Johnson — but it may not be quick

•   FT(Ben Bland): The west looks like a political risk to Asian allies

•   FT(David Stevenson): Focus on emerging markets’ long-term winners

•   FT(Eric Pan): Liquidity strains in markets need structural fixes

•   WSJ(William A. Galston): Give Ukraine the Weapons It Needs

•   WSJ(Robert Showah): How Democrats Lost Their Majorities

•   WSJ(David R. Henderson, Marc Joffe): ESG Feeds Inflation, Hurts Economic Growth

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Another Step Toward Climate Apocalypse

•   WP(Catherine Rampell): A labor fight could soon make inflation worse. Will Biden intervene?

•   WP(Blake Hurst): Why this farmer is wary but optimistic about the global food crisis easing

•   WP(Sebastian Mallaby): Why crypto will rise again

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): NATO Is Sending the Right Message to Putin

•   Bloomberg(Mohamed A. El-Erian): How Will Markets Do in the Second Half of the Year?

•   Bloomberg(Lionel Laurent): A Euro Warning Worth Heeding From Italy

•   Bloomberg(Tim Culpan): Chipmakers and Congress Play a $52 Billion Game of Chicken

•   Bloomberg(Jessica Karl): Europe Is Low on Energy

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Corporate Profits May Be the Next Thing to Break

•   Fox News(Liz Peek): Biden's presidency looks 'out of control,' but could it get worse?

•   Fox News(Bill Hagerty): Biden should quit putting green energy fantasies ahead of America's families

•   Fox News(Rebekah Koffler): Russia's war on Ukraine: 5 reasons why Putin won't stop