Global Economic Monitor 220715

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: S&P 500, Dow close lower after bank earnings, inflation data

※   JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley report profit miss

※   PPI surges more than expected in June

※   Conagra Brands falls on downbeat forecast

※   Dow down 0.46%, S&P off 0.30%, Nasdaq up 0.03%

•   Eurozone: Euro Slips Below Dollar as Europe’s Economic Fortunes Slump

•   Oil: Oil prices drop below $95 for first time since invasion of Ukraine

•   Metals: Industrial metals fall as dollar rises and growth slows

•   Grains: Wheat futures extend losing streak, soy weak, corn firm

•   한국: 미국 물가 충격에 코스피 반락, 2,320대…환율 1,310원선 재돌파

•   한국: 한국은행 '빅스텝'에 CP 금리 들썩…기업 돈줄 '비상'

[Indicators]

•   US Jun. PPI: Producer Price Gains Accelerated in June

•   US Jun. Homes for sale: Supply of US Homes for Sale Rises for First Time in Three Years

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: U.S. Jobless Claims Reach Highest Level This Year

※   Initial claims for jobless benefits rose 9,000 last week to 244,000

•   India Jun. WPI: India’s Wholesale Inflation Rises Less Than Estimated in June

•   India Jun. Consumer sentiment: June consumer sentiment stays sluggish

•   Argentina Jun. CPI: Argentine Inflation Hit 30-Year High Ahead of Guzman’s Exit

•   한국 2021년 국제인구이동: 작년 출국자 수, 입국자 추월…순유출은 16년 만에 처음

•   한국 5월 재정수지: 세수 35조 늘어도 나라살림 적자 71조

•   한국 6월 수출입물가: 6월 수입물가지수 0.5%↑…유가 상승에 2개월 연속 오름세

•   한국 6월 ICT 수출: 상반기 ICT 수출 1226억달러… 1996년 집계 이후 역대 최고

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): 금리충격…서울·광역시 집값 모두 꺾였다

※   한경: "빨리만 팔아달라" 4억 낮춰도 안 나간다…속타는 집주인들

•   한국 주간 아파트 수급동향(부동산원): '빅스텝'에 서울 아파트 매수심리 10주 연속 '위축'

[News]

•   WSJ: JPMorgan Chase Sees Economic Turmoil Brewing, but Few Signs of Recession So Far

※   Customers are still spending and businesses are still borrowing, though investment-banking revenue fell sharply

•   WSJ: People Have Money but Feel Glum—What Does That Mean for Economy?

•   WSJ: Fed Official Says 0.75-Point Interest Rate Rise Seems Most Likely in July

※   Fed governor Christopher Waller says the central bank needs to raise rates high enough to slow the economy

•   WSJ: Federal Reserve Inspector General Finds Powell, Clarida Didn’t Trade Improperly

•   WSJ: Biden Meets Israel’s Leaders With Focus on Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions

•   WSJ: Biden to Meet Palestinians Angry That He Hasn’t Reversed Trump Policies

•   WSJ: Yellen Says She Will Push China to Restructure Debts of Developing Countries

•   WSJ: The $1.50 Costco Hot Dog Combo That Defies Inflation

•   WSJ: Russia Strikes Residential, Business District in Ukraine’s Vinnytsia City

•   WSJ: China’s Xi Made Rare Visit to Xinjiang

•   WSJ: Sri Lanka’s President Resigns Over Email After Fleeing Country

•   WSJ: Sri Lanka Meltdown Hints at Troubles in Developing World

•   WSJ: Parity Is Unlikely to Be the Bottom for the Euro

•   WSJ: The Euro and Dollar Are at Parity, Making Europe Travel a Little Cheaper

•   WSJ: Global Natural-Gas Markets Are Getting Scared

•   WSJ: Amazon Has Been Slashing Private-Label Selection Amid Weak Sales

•   WSJ: SEC Questioned Elon Musk Tweet Over Twitter Deal

•   WSJ: Twitter Lawsuit Adds to Musk’s Tesla and SpaceX Challenges

•   WSJ: Japan Inc. Finally Shows Shareholders the Money

•   WSJ: TSMC Raises Revenue Guidance Despite Chip-Boom Slowdown

•   WSJ: Baby-Formula Shortage Deepens, Defying Replenishment Efforts

•   WSJ: GM and Pilot Plan National Electric-Vehicle Charging Network

•   WSJ: Ericsson Boosted by Demand for 5G Equipment but Warns of Rising Costs

•   NYT: Democrats Face Deepening Peril as Republicans Seize on Inflation Fears

•   NYT: The Semiconductor Problem

•   NYT: The W.H.O. warns against ‘apathy’ in efforts to contain Covid in Africa.

•   NYT: How to Invest When Inflation Is Bad and a Recession May Loom

•   NYT: U.S. Electric Car Sales Climb Sharply Despite Shortages

•   WP: Donald Trump looks to fall launch for 2024, potentially upending midterms

•   FT: Mario Draghi offers to stand down as Italy’s prime minister

※   President rejects resignation of former ECB chief and asks him to speak to parliament next week

•   FT: Brussels lifts eurozone inflation forecast to 7.6% as energy crisis takes toll

※   Forecasts for 2022 revised up from 6.1% as GDP growth revised down to 2.6%

※   European Commission: Summer 2022 Economic Forecast: Russia's war worsens the outlook

•   FT: Ukraine: can Russia still win the war?

•   FT: Who has the power to green the energy sector?

•   FT: Labour shortages in southern Europe threaten post-Covid building boom

•   FT: Macron urges French to save energy in face of Russian threat to gas supply

•   FT: Sunak’s lead falters as Mordaunt marches on

•   FT: Britain’s power grid provides electricity lifeline to Europe

•   FT: Threat of US freight rail strike tests Biden’s union-friendly pledge

•   FT: Brazil to turn on spending taps in run-up to presidential vote

•   FT: ‘Exponentially’ risky China leaves venture capital funds starved of cash

•   FT: Amazon offers concessions to close EU antitrust probes

•   FT: Big Tech’s taxpayer backstopped multi-billion dollar debt subsidy

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Collins Says Addressing Too-High Inflation Is Key Priority

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Mester Says CPI Data Gives No Reason for Smaller July Hike

•   Bloomberg: Biden Calls Inflation Numbers ‘Out of Date.’ Americans Disagree

•   Bloomberg: Is the US in a Recession? How To Prepare for Economic Downturn

•   Bloomberg: All Crisis Scenarios Lead to Rome as ECB Starts Raising Rates

•   Bloomberg: ECB Is Judged as Acting Late After Its Long Goodbye to Low Rates

•   Bloomberg: EU Weighs Lifting Sanctions on Some Russians Over Legal Concerns

•   Bloomberg: German Economy Is ‘Moving Into Recession,’ Deutsche Bank Says

•   Bloomberg: Next UK Prime Minister Faces ‘Scary’ Winter Energy Crisis

•   Bloomberg: France’s Nuclear Troubles Are Worrying the UK Ahead of Winter

•   Bloomberg: China’s Troubled Property Market Has Global Investors On Edge

•   Bloomberg: China Readies $1.1 Trillion to Support Xi’s Infrastructure Push

•   Bloomberg: IMF Urges China to Boost Stimulus, Adjust Covid Steps to Counter Slowdown

※   IMF: Transcript of IMF Press Briefing

•   Bloomberg: China Premier Pledges to Shore Up Employment as Economy Sputters

•   Bloomberg: China’s Credit Market Is Moving Into Fresh Phase of Distress

•   Bloomberg: Shanghai Covid Cases Drop Below 50 in Sign Flareup Easing

•   Bloomberg: China’s Heatwave Turns Deadly as Industrial Power Cuts Begin

•   Bloomberg: China’s Regulators Told to Turn Cautious on Outbound Spending as Fed Hikes, Sources Say

•   Bloomberg: Japan’s Kishida Risks Political Fight With Vow to Take Up Abe’s Legacy

•   Bloomberg: More BOJ Watchers See Kuroda Staying Course With Ultra-Low Rates

•   Bloomberg: Japan Wants Up to Nine Nuclear Reactors Online This Winter

•   Bloomberg: Tokyo Raises Covid Alert to Highest Level as Cases Surge Again

•   Bloomberg: Russia Aims to Take Control of Oil Pricing by Creating Benchmark

•   Bloomberg: OPEC Faces a Near-Impossible Oil Production Task in 2023

•   Bloomberg: Copper Rout Masks Future Supply Gap With Green Goals at Risk

•   Bloomberg: Fertilizer Crisis Shrinking Crops in Eastern Europe Could Worsen

•   Bloomberg: IBM’s Krishna Says Tech Industry Will Weather Recession Fears

•   Bloomberg: Renewable Energy Provides Relief From Rising Power Prices

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: US Economy Careens Between Glee and Gloom With Each Data Release

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: MBS’s $500 Billion Desert Dream Just Keeps Getting Weirder

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Elon Musk Twitter Drama is Bad for Investors and Employees

•   Reuters: U.S. gasoline prices are finally falling. Why?

•   Reuters: U.S. Senate to vote as soon as Tuesday on slimmed-down China chip bill -source

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Saudi Arabia doubles Q2 Russian fuel oil imports for power generation

•   Reuters: Iran says it will have a "harsh response" to any mistake from U.S. or its allies

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Alibaba cuts a third of deals team staff after regulatory crackdown-sources

•   Reuters: Analysis: Why Elon Musk's fight with Twitter could draw further SEC scrutiny

•   CNBC: A second wave of Russians is fleeing Putin’s regime

•   CNBC: Copper prices are signaling that investors are bearish on the economy, strategist says

•   MarketWatch: 3 key numbers in company earnings reports to watch out for this earnings season

•   Fox News: Biden economic adviser Bernstein admits inflation 'unacceptably elevated,' calls for 'more policy'

•   SCMP: Chinese ‘superiority’ keeps its inflation low, economic planner boasts as US prices keep rising

•   SCMP: On Russian oil, China shuns US call to cap prices and urges dialogue in ‘very complicated’ issue

•   Caixin: Analysis: China’s Chipmaking Hub Beats Covid Chaos With Closed-Loop Strategy

•   Caixin: In Depth: Why China Still Doesn’t Have an mRNA Shot

•   Nikkei Asia: St. Louis Fed president favors 75 basis point rate hike

•   Nikkei Asia: Intel plans price hikes on broad range of products

•   매경(P1): 빚 갚기 힘든 자영업자 25만명…원금 90%까지 감면해준다는데

•   매경: "영끌족 구하라"…변동금리 주담대, 4%대 고정금리로 바꿔준다

•   매경: "성실히 빚 갚은 사람만 억울"…'빚투족' 이자 탕감에 부글부글

•   매경: 이복현 금감원장 "취약대출자 연착륙, 은행이 도와달라" 당부

•   매경(P1): "대우조선 하청노조 파업 멈춰라"…고용 산업부장관 최후통첩

•   매경: 불법파업에 세계1위 조선경쟁력 흔들…정부 무관용 대응 나섰다

•   매경: 본사 2만명 직원들 분노 "하청 100명 때문에 정상화 물거품 될판"

•   매경(P1): [단독] 양향자 "반도체공장 용적률 450%로 완화 추진"

•   매경: "해외도 괜찮다"…우아한형제들, 내년부터 근무 장소·시간 직원 자율로

•   매경: 새는 열 막겠다는 암스테르담…주택 지붕·벽 단열에 41조원 투입

•   매경: 수상가옥 주민들의 '에너지 절감' 실험

•   매경: 시청 5km 옆 화력발전…송전중 전력 손실 줄인다

•   매경: 넓은 집무실, 안쓰는 사택…'호화청사' 전부 구조조정 대상

•   매경: "빚투하다 폭망, 믿을 건 은행뿐"…보름새 10조 몰린 예적금

•   매경: 원재료값 상승에 발목 잡힌 포스코

•   매경: 카카오모빌 매각설에 미소 번진 판교 [아이티라떼]

•   매경: 김소영 금융위 부위원장 "물적분할, 주주보호 미흡땐 상장제한"

•   매경: 인수합병 자금, 꿈 대신 실적으로 몰린다

•   한경: 아이오닉6, 한 번 충전으로 524㎞ 간다…테슬라 모델3 추월

•   한경: 세계서 유례없이 가혹…한국, 72년째 유산에 '뭉텅이 과세'

•   한경: 까다로운 가업상속공제…中企들 투자 접는다

•   한경: 법인세 최고세율 낮춘다지만…OECD 평균보다 높아

•   한경: HMM, 4년 내 15조원 베팅…친환경 연료 등 사업 다각화

•   서경(P1): [단독] 스페이스X 올라탄 미래에셋…'박현주 매직' 통했다

•   서경(P1): [단독] 개인회생 3년만에 증가…연쇄 '도산폭탄' 터지나

•   서경: [단독] 날아든 '빚투 청구서'…2030 도산폭탄 터지나

•   서경(P1): 美 '칩4 동맹' 요청…정부 "참여 고심중"

•   서경: 물가잡기 안간힘 쓰는 與…이번엔 "데이터 요금제 손질"

•   서경: 물가 잡기에…가스公, 올 부채율 120%P 폭증

•   서경: 법원 "종부세 위헌성 없어"

•   조선(P1): “美, 핵 억지력 신뢰 회복해야”

•   조선: “한국, 탄소배출 실현 가능한 목표 세워라”

•   조선: “경기침체 위기, 저금리가 만든 거품 걷어낼 기회로 삼아야”

•   조선: “가상화폐, 투기로만 봐선 안돼… 블록체인기술 영역은 계속 진화”

•   조선: 주담대 찔끔 내리고, 마통 금리 확 올려… 직장인 분통

•   조선: 친환경인 척 하지마… ‘녹색 위장술’과의 전쟁

•   조선: 상반기 수출 선방? 하반기 전망은 ‘매우 흐림’

•   조선: 회사 일에 지장 없을까? 세계는 지금 ‘100:80:100 주4일제’ 실험 중

•   조선: 드디어 시작된 ‘무인 자율주행 택시’… 빈차 20대가 교차로 몰려 교통체증도

•   조선비즈: 다시 고개 드는 ‘거리두기 공포’… 자영업자들 “아직 매출 회복 못했는데”

•   조선비즈: “통큰 투자 이유 있었다” 삼성전기·LG이노텍, 경기침체 우려에도 2분기 호실적

•   인베스트조선: 공정거래위원회가 '색채'를 드러낼 때 보이는 모습?

•   인베스트조선: 좁혀지지 않는 매각자-인수후보 눈높이…대어급 M&A 완주 여부 안갯속

•   중앙(P1): 더 센 ‘켄타우로스’ 상륙, 해외 간 적 없는 60대 첫 감염

•   중앙: 2050년 수요 6배 느는데…핵심광물 어디서 사오나

•   동아(P1): 종부세, 집값만 따져 과세… 다주택자 중과 폐지 추진

•   동아: “숙박비-밥값 올랐는데 출장비는 그대로… 출장가기도 겁나요”

•   한국(P1): [단독] '보통 월급쟁이' 임금 29% 오를 때 소득세 42% 뛰었다

•   한국(P1): [단독] 반도체 대학원도 위기…박사 18%가 외국인, 지원자 '0명'도 11%

•   한국: "몇 층 가세요?" 물어보고 AI가 얼굴 알아보는 미래형 엘리베이터를 타봤다

•   국민: 고금리엔 채권이 ‘쏠쏠’… 동학개미, 안전자산으로 대이동

•   한겨레: 정부 “물가 9~10월이 정점”이라지만, 환율·원자재값 복병

•   한겨레: 대기업 임금 10.4% 오를때, 임시일용직은 3.1% 인상 그쳐

•   머니투데이(P1): 최태원, 윤대통령에게도 했다는 말…"토끼는 한꺼번에 잡아야"

•   머니투데이: "주가 오르는 걸 회장님이 싫어해요...상속세 때문에"

•   머니투데이: "근무시간 1년마다 계산한다고?"….근로자에 득일까, 독일까

•   머니투데이: [단독]尹정부, '이재명표' 지역화폐 예산 전액삭감 나선다

•   머니투데이: 돌아온 '타다'에 기사님 천명 몰렸는데…"차가 모자라"

•   아시아경제: 비싸게 판다고 비난받는 주유소…폭리 취할까? [기름값 팩트체크]

•   아시아경제: 고유가 시대 정유사만 횡재했다? [기름값 팩트체크]

•   아시아경제: 유류세 인하에도 휘발유 최고가 '2992원' [기름값 팩트체크]

•   디지털타임스: 尹정부 고위공직자 12% 기재부 출신

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 3만7134명 확진…1주일전의 1.99배

•   더구루: [단독] SK에코플랜트, 떠오르는 600조원 폐배터리 재활용 시장 출사표

•   전자신문(P1): 삼성, EUV 활용 10나노급 GDDR6 첫 개발

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]유통가 드론 배송 시대 '성큼'…"5년 내 상용화"

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]해외도 '드론 배송' 확산…안전과 비용은 걸림돌

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Ana Palacio): Is China Winning Latin America?

•   Project Syndicate(Vaira Vīķe-Freiberga): Putin Is No Peter the Great

•   Project Syndicate(Minxin Pei): Can the US Win the New Cold War?

•   Project Syndicate(Tarek Osman): What Saudi Arabia Wants

•   FT(Editorial Board): US recession is a smaller danger than long-term inflation

•   FT(Gillian Tett): We should be worrying about debt as well as inflation

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): Why a price cap on Russian oil is a bad idea

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): High inflation doesn’t scare the market anymore

•   FT(Bhanu Baweja): Liquidity is a bigger worry for investor returns than growth

•   FT(Lionel Barber): Putin’s stamina for war will test the west’s resolve

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Inflation Tax on Workers

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Government Corporate Tax Cartel

•   WSJ(Daniel Henninger): Joe Biden’s Presidency Is Sinking

•   WSJ(James Freeman): Inflation Fighter

•   WSJ(Joseph C. Sternberg): The Political Agony of the Euro’s Parity With the Dollar

•   WSJ(Chen Guangcheng): Why the Chinese Communist Party Is Destroying My Village

•   WSJ(Robert Hargraves): Nuclear Power Could Heat Your Home

•   WSJ(Ted Rall): Biden’s Problem Is Deeper Than Pessimism

•   NYT(Matthew Walther): The Big Ten Is Growing, But All I See Is Decline

•   WP(Catherine Rampell): Is the economy good or bad? In a word: Yes.

•   Bloomberg(Bill Dudley): What It Will Take for the Fed to Tame Inflation

•   Bloomberg(Conor Sen): Fed’s Inflation Fight Gets a Boost From the Labor Market

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): How Many Months Until the Fed Brings Inflation Nearing Double Digits to a Peak?

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): Is China Stumbling Into Its Own Mortgage Crisis?

•   Bloomberg(Jared Dillian): Are We in a Recession Now? Just Look at Discount Retailers

•   Bloomberg(Tim Culpan): TSMC Has a $40 Billion Vaccine Against Inflation

•   Bloomberg(Maria Tadeo): Draghi Turmoil Is Bad News for Italy

•   Bloomberg(Minxin Pei): Biden Is Fighting the Wrong Battle Against China

•   MarketWatch(Cullen Roche): The real worry isn't prolonged inflation --- it's deflation

•   Caixin(Jacob Hook, Ben Simpfendorfer): Why Fixing Global Supply Chains May Take a While