Global Economic Monitor 220901

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks struggle, oil down, on rate and recession fears

※   U.S. crude falls

※   German bonds head for worst month in 30 years

※   US stocks drop, European shares at six-week lows

※   Gold slides to a six-week low

•   Europe: European debt market hit by historic sell-off after rate rise bets

•   UK: UK pound posts worst month since wake of 2016 Brexit referendum

•   Metals: Poor China demand prospects, strong dollar pressure copper

•   Grains: Corn dips but still poised for monthly gain; soy lower, wheat up

•   Chip: 8월 D램·낸드 가격 1%대 하락… “4분기에도 하락세 계속”

•   한국: 코스피 연이틀 상승해 2,470대 회복…원/달러 환율 급등 진정

•   한국: 원전 대장주(株) 두산에너빌리티에 무슨 일?…외국인·임원·사모펀드는 팔고, 개미만 샀다

[Indicators]

•   US Aug. Employment(ADP): US Companies Add Fewest Jobs Since Early 2021, New ADP Data Show

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications(MBA): Mortgage demand falls even further, as rates shoot back up to July highs

•   Eurozone Aug. CPI: Eurozone inflation rises to record 9.1%

※   Fresh high piles pressure on European Central Bank to raise rates substantially next week

•   Germany Aug. Employment: German Unemployment Edges Higher as More Refugees Join Workforce

•   China Aug. PMI: China’s Economic Woes Drag On With Factory Disruptions, Property Slump

※   Extreme weather and power shortages depressed manufacturing, while home sales fell for the 14th consecutive month

※   WSJ: There Is Still No Bottom for China’s Economy

•   Japan Jul. Industrial production: Japan's July industrial output rises 1.0% on month

•   India Q2 GDP: India’s GDP Jumps as Consumer Spending Revives, Covid Fears Ebb

※   But with inflation high and many incomes yet to recover from pandemic, demand could run out of steam

•   India Q2 Employment: Urban unemployment rate in April-June 2022 eased to 7.6%, shows PLFS data

•   India Q2 FDI: FDI equity inflows shrink 6% in Apr-Jun

•   India Jul. Core industry production: India's core sector growth dips to 4.5% in July, down from 9.9% a year ago

•   Turkey Q2 GDP: Inflation-Scarred Consumers Fuel Turkish Economy by Spending

•   한국 7월 산업활동: 생산·소비·투자 석달만에 '트리플 감소'…경기 불확실성↑

•   한국 7월 주택통계: 용산 2건, 마포 7건 실화냐?…역대급 '거래 종말' 시대

•   한국 7월 무역지수 및 교역조건: 대외 교역조건 16개월째 악화… 순상품교역 지수 사상 최저로

[News]

•   WSJ: U.S., Allies Prepare to Outline Plan to Limit Price of Russian Oil

•   WSJ: Donald Trump’s Legal Team Faces Rising Stakes From Obstruction Allegations

•   WSJ: Choosing Your Own Hours Isn’t Just for Remote Workers Anymore

•   WSJ: Heat Wave Hits Western U.S., With High Temperatures Expected Through Labor Day Weekend

•   WSJ: Covid-19 Booster Shots Targeting Omicron Authorized, Likely to Be Offered Soon

•   WSJ: Inside a U.S. Navy Maritime Drone Operation Aimed at Iran

•   WSJ: Taiwan Warns of Counterattack if China Violates Territorial Waters, Airspace

•   WSJ: Japan to Build Longer-Range Missiles and Study Hypersonic Technology

•   WSJ: Russia’s Bonds Regain Market Appeal As Trading Defrosts

•   WSJ: Review of Federal Home-Loan Banks Is Planned

•   WSJ: PC Makers Are Looking for a New Floor

•   WSJ: Nvidia Warns of Sales Hit from New U.S. Chip Licensing Requirements For China

•   WSJ: Toyota to Put Additional Billions of Dollars Into EV Batteries

•   WSJ: Disney Explores Membership Program Like Amazon Prime to Offer Discounts and Perks

•   WSJ: Netflix Seeking Top Dollar for Brands to Advertise on Its Service

•   WSJ: Starbucks Is Rethinking Almost Everything, Including How to Make Frappuccinos

•   WSJ: Bed Bath & Beyond to Close 150 Stores, Cut Staff, Sell Shares to Raise Cash

•   NYT: U.S. Life Expectancy Falls Again in ‘Historic’ Setback

•   NYT: A Draft for Russia’s Army? Putin Opts for Domestic Stability Instead.

•   NYT: Some Carmakers Say Recycling Car Parts Is the Future. But Is It Realistic?

•   WP: The shadow stalking Democrats’ improving numbers: Can polls be trusted?

•   WP: Bosses want workers back by Labor Day. They’re not going in without a fight

•   FT: Russia shuts down Nord Stream gas pipeline to Europe

※   Three-day closure will compound concerns in European countries as they strive to secure supplies ahead of winter

•   FT: German companies halt production to cope with rising energy prices

•   FT: EU rips up Russia visa deal in victory for eastern member states

•   FT: Energy discount ruling will not reduce headline inflation

•   FT: ‘King dollar’ surges as Fed presses ahead with rate rises

•   FT: Why we need to talk about QT

•   FT: ‘Perfect storm’ energy crunch lengthens life of coal power in US

•   FT: A ‘buyers’ market’ for homes is still elusive in the US

•   FT: China drought highlights economic damage wrought by global warming

•   FT: Colombia’s new leftwing president tries to mend bridges with Venezuela

•   FT: Maersk to plough bumper profits into global supply chain integration

•   FT: Chip design group Arm sues Qualcomm for breach of contract

•   FT: Tencent turns from buyer to seller in investment pivot

•   FT: Brussels proposes tough regulations on smartphone spare part availability

•   Bloomberg: Powell Abandons Soft Landing Goal as He Seeks Growth Recession

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Mester Backs Rates Above 4% Early Next Year, No 2023 Cuts

•   Bloomberg: Raimondo Says States Must Compete for New Chips Investment, Jobs

•   Bloomberg: Larry Summers Says JOLTS Data Further Undercut Soft-Landing Case

•   Bloomberg: Democrats Dream of Young-Voter Enthusiasm on Student-Loan Relief

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Logan Says Restoring Price Stability Is Number One Task

•   Bloomberg: France Says It Can Get Through Winter as Russia Chokes Gas Flows

•   Bloomberg: ECB Must Deliver a ‘Strong’ Rate Hike Next Week, Nagel Says

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Holzmann Sees No Reason for ‘Leniency’ in Inflation Fight

•   Bloomberg: Truss’s Policies Pose a Risk for UK Assets, Warns Former BOE Chief Economist

•   Bloomberg: IAEA Team Heads for Ukraine Nuclear Plant Inspection in War Zone

•   Bloomberg: China Is Paying a Price for Its Economic and Pandemic Policies

•   Bloomberg: China Party Congress to Offer Clues on Overhaul of Economic Team

•   Bloomberg: Shanghai’s Two-Month Lockdown Is Still Rippling Through Economy

•   Bloomberg: Why Xi Jinping’s Third Term Doesn’t Mean He’ll Rule for Life

•   Bloomberg: China Escalates Currency Defense as Yuan Nears 7 Per Dollar

•   Bloomberg: Four Charts Show China’s Defense of Yuan Just Slows Its Decline

•   Bloomberg: Japan to Allow Non-Guided Group Tours From September

•   Bloomberg: Bolsonaro’s Relaxation of Brazil Gun Laws Stirs Unease in Poll

•   Bloomberg: Brazil Cash Handouts and Angry Debate Fail to Dent Lula Lead

•   Bloomberg: Bulls Starved in August During Worst Cross-Asset Selloff Since ‘81

•   Bloomberg: There’s a Rush for the World’s ‘Safest’ Dollars, Deutsche Bank Says

•   Bloomberg: The Market Is Underestimating Fed Risk Even After Rout, Bank of America Says

•   Bloomberg: BofA Sees Currency Risks Rising on Housing-Market Slowdowns

•   Bloomberg: ECB Hike of 75 Basis Points by October Is Now Fully Priced In

•   Bloomberg: As IPOs Slump Globally, the Big Deals Are Coming From China

•   Bloomberg: OPEC+ Panel Tightens Oil Market Outlook for This Year, Next

•   Bloomberg: China Steps Up Soybean Buying From US, Brazil as Prices Fall

•   Bloomberg: China’s Stimulus Helps to Lift the Gloom Over Steel Markets

•   Bloomberg: Iran’s Nuclear Program Hits New Snag on Climate Challenge

•   Bloomberg: Working From Home Could Add £131 a Month to Energy Bills

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Electric Car Sales in China Ruled by BYD, Great Wall, Tesla

•   Reuters: Iran seeks stronger U.S. guarantees for revival of 2015 nuclear deal

•   Reuters: U.S. will never allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, Biden tells Israel's Lapid

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Crisis-hit Sri Lanka strikes preliminary loan pact with IMF -sources

•   Reuters: As natural gas prices jump, shale oil firms get gassy

•   Reuters: Amazon, Google slam Microsoft's cloud computing changes

•   Reuters: Analysis: Full gas storage no fix for Europe's winter energy crunch

•   AP: Europe plan for floating gas terminals raises climate fears

•   CNBC: An Iran nuclear deal revival could dramatically alter oil prices — if it happens

•   CNBC: Iraq’s ‘extraordinarily toxic’ turmoil is a considerable risk to the oil market, say analysts

•   MarketWatch: The stock market’s summer rally ran out of steam in August. Here’s what history says about September.

•   MarketWatch: Chip stocks could plunge another 25% as 'we are entering the worst semiconductor downturn in a decade,' analyst says

•   SCMP: ‘Economic tsar’ Liu He has President Xi’s full trust, but who can fill in when Liu retires?

•   SCMP: China chips away at US-Australian influence in the Pacific, as Solomon Islands bans foreign naval vessels

•   SCMP: Xinjiang exports to US hit two-year high despite Uygur Forced Labour Prevention Act taking effect

•   SCMP: China’s zero-Covid policy clouds economic outlook beyond third quarter, as Omicron finds a way

•   SCMP: Undersea internet cables a major vulnerability in any potential Taiwan attack, report finds

•   Caixin: China’s Local Governments Sell Assets as Fiscal Income Slumps

•   Nikkei Asia: Russia gives 12.5% stake in Sakhalin Energy to Mitsui unit

•   Nikkei Asia: Toyota to hike price of steel supplies for parts makers by up to 30%

•   Nikkei Asia: Unification Church runs a de facto conglomerate in South Korea

•   Nikkei Asia: Top Japan railway JR East to cut 4,000 train jobs as commuters stay home

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Next premier must save the economy. Is Wang Yang the one?

•   매경(P1): 10년 끈 론스타訴 "韓정부 3100억 배상"

•   매경: 재판부 "주가조작 유죄 론스타, 매각가 인하 절반 책임있다"

•   매경: 재판부 3명중 1명 반대의견에…한동훈 "일부배상도 끝까지 다퉈볼만"

•   매경: 론스타와 얽힌 '그때 그 사람들'…尹정부 경제라인 줄줄이 포진

•   매경: 엘리엇·메이슨…兆단위 ISDS소송 6건 더 있다

•   매경: 5조 먹튀 론스타…20년간 비리·주가조작 얼룩

•   매경(P1): [단독] 애플, 앱 수수료 3500억 더 떼갔다

•   매경(P1): 투자 혹한기, 제조 스타트업엔 돈 몰린다

•   매경: 돈 넘쳐나던 시대 끝났다더니…여기는 호황, 어디길래

•   매경: "제조업 경기 부침 덜해 매력적…한 번 뜨면 쉽게 내려앉지 않아"

•   매경: 원가기반 전기료·LNG 稅지원…한전 30조 적자 해결책 연내 마련

•   매경: "다 했으면 차 빼" 이웃 다툼 줄어들까…새 아파트, 꼭 설치해야

•   매경: 한전·LH …빚더미 공기업 14곳, 5년간 34조 재무개선

•   매경: 고위급 외교단 중동 파견…원전·건설 수주 총력전

•   매경: 유독 보험사에만…발 묶인 공공의료데이터

•   매경: 추석 대목, 대형마트보다 온라인·백화점서 돈 썼다

•   매경: "탄탄한 수소 생태계 구축…초격차 산업으로 키울것"

•   매경: 경찰버스·청소차…현대차, 수소차 영토 확대

•   매경: 상의 "가업승계 증여세 연납기간 더 늘려달라"

•   매경: 8월의 '공매도 폭탄'…이런 기업들이 맞았다

•   한경(P1): [단독] '평당 1000만원'…천장 뚫린 아파트 공사비에 비명

•   한경: 위트와 리스크 사이…아슬아슬 줄타는 '친절한 창용씨'

•   한경: 주문 폭증에도…맘대로 연장근로 못하는 기업들

•   한경: [단독] "공사비 더 줄테니 지어달라"…재건축 급한 조합들, 건설사에 '읍소'

•   한경: '부동산 빙하기' 쌓이는 미분양…수도권 7개월 새 3배나 늘었다

•   한경: '출혈경쟁'은 옛말…정비사업 80%가 수의계약

•   한경: 野 '공제액 12억' 절충안 거부…종부세 완화 협상, 막판 진통

•   한경: 김성한 "9월 1일 美와 인플레 감축법 논의"

•   한경: 외국인 근로자 없인 공장 멈출 판인데…동남아도 늙어간다

•   한경: 외국인 고용허가 쿼터…올해 1만명 늘려준다

•   한경: 연봉 6000만원 직장인, 부수입 2400만원 있다면…건보료 月 2만3300원 더 내야

•   한경: 전력판매시장 '한전 독점' 깨진다

•   한경: 은행, 채권 발행 늘며 부채 증가…"대출금리 상승으로 이어질 수도"

•   한경: "2금융권, 다중채무자 충당금 더 쌓아라"

•   한경: "지역화폐에 수천억 썼는데…" 예산 전액삭감에 '패닉'

•   한경: 한이헌·조원동·최중경·김종갑…윤석열 정부 규제혁신 돕는다

•   한경: "빚 부담 줄이려면…" 잠 못 드는 '영끌족' 위한 조언

•   한경TV: [단독] 한전기술, 엘다바 원전 불참…반쪽짜리 수주

•   서경(P1): 한덕수 총리 “원전 활용해 수소 만들겠다”

•   서경(P1): [단독] '용인 반도체클러스터 리츠' 나오나…산단 투자, 불가서 검토 선회

•   서경: "산단 리츠 허용땐 추가투자 가능"…투기·특혜 논란은 숙제로

•   서경: [단독] 한전, 발전자회사에 '한전공대 운영자금' 요청

•   서경: 추경호 "소비자단체, 근거 없는 가격 인상 감시해달라"

•   서경: 금리 인상때마다 요구불예금 급감…유동자금, 정기예적금으로 몰린다

•   서경: 지자체, 보조금 부담에…中 전기버스 사면서 국산 수소버스 외면

•   서경: 불법보조금에 '반값'된 갤Z폴드4…사전계약자만 호구되나

•   서경: 기관, 8월 한달 '3조 매도폭탄'…반도체 투톱만 1.6조

•   서경: '국민연금 주주대표소송 일원화' 법률공방 가열

•   서경: 집값 50% 뛰더니 단숨에 '5억 뚝'…막차 영끌족 '한숨'

•   조선(P1): “엑스포 유치” 이재용·최태원, 英·日 총리 만난다

•   조선: ‘주 52시간’ 예외 인정해주는 특별연장근로 인가 77% 급증

•   조선: [송의달 에디터의 Special Report] 30년 최고 경제 파트너였던 韓·中…'친구 사이’ 계속 될까?

•   조선: 은행원, 증권맨은 줄고, 금융회사마다 IT 인력 급증

•   조선: 국세청장 “기업이 경영 전념토록 세무조사 줄이겠다”

•   조선: 對美투자 부담 10조원 늘어났다, 기업들 환율 비상

•   조선: “2800까지 간다” “2050이 바닥”… 극과 극 전망 승자

•   조선: 똑똑한 폰, 접는 폰, 얇은 폰… 올가을 프리미엄 ‘스마트폰 大戰’

•   조선: 칩이 기기에 탑재되기 전 테스트하고 포장하는 과정… 경쟁력 좌우하는 핵심 요소

•   조선비즈: 한은 “원·달러 환율 1350원대 급등은 中 위안화 약세, 韓 무역적자 때문”

•   조선비즈: 대한상의 “화물연대 하이트진로 불법점거, 국가경제 위기 가중”

•   조선비즈: ‘진짜 5G’ 28㎓ 스마트폰도 없는데… 5G 특화망 구축하겠다는 정부

•   조선비즈: “올려주겠다” 대책만 계속… 표준형 건축비, 이번엔 오를까

•   조선비즈: 尹정부 석유대체연료 확대 방침…‘바이오 에탄올’ 주유소 등장하나

•   조선비즈: 60년 된 회사도 무너졌다… 부산서 택시회사 첫 폐업

•   조선비즈: 카드업계도 강달러에 신음… 해외직구 줄고 여행수요는 ‘찬물’

•   조선비즈: 대형사 등쌀에 밀리고 오피스텔 미분양에 물리고… 중소 건설사의 눈물

•   조선비즈: “2040년까지 한반도 해역 해수면 11㎝ 상승… 온도는 1.2℃ 오를 것”

•   인베스트조선: 7% 금리에도 시큰둥…대주단 모집 ‘하늘의 별따기’ 된 인수금융 시장

•   인베스트조선: 떨고있는 증권사 IB 업계...부동산·인수금융 '셀다운 적체'에 구조조정 불가피

•   중앙: "8주면 판교 취업" 이런 시절 끝났다…코딩 배운 문과생 눈물

•   중앙: 뭉쳐야 산다…‘투자 혹한기’ 스타트업끼리 M&A 급증

•   중앙: 삼성전자 -25%, 네이버 -37%, 카카오 -35%…개미들 많이 산 종목 더 떨어졌네

•   중앙: ‘반값 전쟁’…치킨·피자·초밥 이어 7800원 탕수육 등장

•   동아: 내년 정부 R&D 예산 30조원 첫 돌파

•   문화(P1): 초저녁에도 택시가 안잡힌다… 혁신 외면이 부른 ‘대란’

•   문화: 심야 빈 택시 1시간 1대꼴…그나마 목적지만 묻고 승차거부

•   문화: “요금인상 효과 일시적…새 교통수단 규제혁신 시급”

•   문화: 우버·타다 무리한 퇴출에 시장전체 공멸...운전사 회원 1만2000명 일할 기회 잃어

•   문화(P1): ‘오미크론 하위 변이 겨냥’ 개량백신 4분기 순차 도입

•   문화: “석유수요 8년뒤 급감…‘Non 카본’시대 대비를”

•   한국(P1): 미국 바람에 휘둘리지 않으려... 미국 속으로 들어간 K배터리

•   한국(P1): 초강력 태풍 '힌남노' 이르면 4일부터 영향... '후지와라 효과'도 변수

•   국민(P1): 무역적자 빨간불에 무역금융 351조 확대

•   국민(P1): ‘제2 대장동’ 위례… 檢 수사 확대

•   서울: 오늘부터 ‘1폰 2번호’… e심 서비스 시작

•   서울: [2022 쟁점 분석] 업종·급여수준 불문 인력난 전방위 확산…외국인 인력 늘리고 자동·무인화 나서야

•   한겨레(P1): 윤석열 정부 첫 정기국회 1일 시작…여야 “민생 우선” 입법 대전

•   한겨레: 4대 재벌 대표기업들, ‘코로나 특수’ 누리면서 기부금은 줄여

•   경향: 내년 ‘공공형 노인일자리’ 6만개 급감…고령층 복지 사각 우려

•   경향: 나랏님, ‘노동’ 두 글자가 그렇게 나쁩니까

•   머니투데이(P1): 공공택지 '벌떼 입찰' 개발이익도 환수한다

•   머니투데이: 40% 줄어든 모태펀드 예산…"VC 생존 위기"vs"옥석 가릴 기회"

•   머니투데이: 대형건설사, 글로벌 원전 시장 정조준…'조' 단위 수주 노린다

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 악재 딛고 막 여는 ‘IFA2022’…베를린 최대 화두는 ‘서프라이즈’

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 거리두기 없는 명절... 고속道 통행료 면제

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "정부 정책 잘 따른게 罪" 줄세우기 공시에 금융권 부글부글

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 아직도 0%대 이자… 민심 잃은 예탁금 2년만에 '최저'

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 3연속 상승 후판가격, 이번엔 내릴까

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 우울한 면세점…고환율에 中 항공노선 증편도 하세월

•   파이낸셜뉴스: [단독] 표류하는 종부세… 野 '선납부 후환급'까지 검토

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]이재용 삼성 부회장, 창립기념일 맞춰 11월 1일 회장 승진

•   아시아경제: "예금금리 올랐다고 반길 일?…대출금리 인상 부메랑 돌아온다"

•   아시아경제: 사업 속도내는 공공재개발…반대 목소리 키우는 비대위

•   디지털타임스(P1): "정부 차원 피해방지책 필요" 지적에… 수입전기차 보조금 개편 만지작

•   이데일리(P1): [단독]이재용 부회장, 내달 英 출장길…ARM 빅딜 가능성 촉각

•   이데일리: “대출한도 1년새 1억 줄었다”…급전 필요한 서민들 ‘부글부글’

•   이데일리: 증시 변동성 확대·IPO 시장 한파에도…WCP 등 '대어' 온다

•   이데일리: 쏘카 이후는 누구? IPO 한파에 적자기업 눈치

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 7만9977명 확진…1주전보다 2만9356명 적어

•   연합: 2분기 낸드 점유율 SK하이닉스 1.9%p 상승…삼성전자는 하락

•   연합: 수입 곡물가격 4분기에 하락 전망…7개 분기만의 하락세

•   연합: "작년에 중국이 가장 많은 투자를 한 나라는 브라질"

•   뉴스1: [단독]"그 가격에 누가 사요"…강남·서초 신고가 거래, 석 달만에 98% 실종

•   KBS: [단독] 한기정 공정거래위원장 후보자 자녀 불법 유학 정황

•   전자신문(P1): 삼성, 옛 미전실 직원 복귀 타진...컨트롤타워 재건하나

•   전자신문: 네이버 파파고 "이제 찍지 않고 들고만 있어도 번역해준다"

•   전자신문: D램 수요 믿을 건 '서버향'...모바일 3분기 연속 앞질러

•   전자신문: 상반기 세계 반도체 기업 M&A 206억달러

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(J. Bradford DeLong): Why Can’t We All Be Rich?

•   Project Syndicate(Xu Qiyuan, Wan Tailei): Averting Debt Disaster in the Developing World

•   Project Syndicate(Simon Johnson): America Comes Roaring Back

•   Project Syndicate(Robert Habeck, Kadri Simson, Dan Jørgensen): How the Baltic Sea Countries Can Shield Europe from Russia’s Energy Weapon

•   Project Syndicate(Ngaire Woods): Is the World’s Financial Firefighter Ready?

•   FT(Gillian Tett): Putin propaganda just took an exceptionally strange turn

•   FT(Leo Lewis): Self-driving cars have nothing on Japan’s self-captaining ships

•   FT(Alan Beattie): National self-sufficiency isn’t the answer to the energy shock

•   WSJ(Daniel Henninger): Biden’s Choice: Semi-Fascism or American Socialism

•   WSJ(Karl Rove): Be Skeptical of the Democratic Comeback in the 2022 Midterms

•   WSJ(Dan Morenoff): Break Up the ESG Investing Giants

•   WSJ(Mario Loyola): Clean Power? Where’s Your Permit?

•   NYT(Peter Coy): In This Energy Crisis, What’s Stocking Up? What’s Hoarding?

•   WP(Josh Rogin): Chinese companies are leaving U.S. stock exchanges. Good riddance.

•   Bloomberg(Justin Fox): Biden's Economy Has the Best Growth Record Since Clinton

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): Hottest Commodity in the Oil Industry: Elements by Javier Blas

•   Bloomberg(Parmy Olson): Sorry Zuckerberg, the Metaverse Won't Replace Zoom

•   Bloomberg(Andrea Felsted): The UK Energy Crisis Won't Steal Christmas

•   Bloomberg(Kevin Muir): Federal Reserve Quantitative Tightening Fallout Should Be Limited

•   Bloomberg(Julianna Goldman): Biden Is Unpopular, But Democrats Aren’t

•   Fox Business(Allen Mendenhall): Corporations are going woke, but a backlash is underway

•   한경(최준선): 공정거래법상 동일인 지정제도 폐지해야

•   서경(사설): “민생 정당” 외치며 반시장법 쏟아내는 巨野

•   중앙(김세용): 반지하 없애려면

Global Economic Monitor 220831

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Shares tumble, yields jump as data fuel rate angst

※   European stocks, U.S. stocks drop after US job openings, German inflation data

※   Government bond yields spike on rate hike bets

※   Markets brace for further hawkish Fed, ECB action

※   Oil tumbles 6% on fears of economic slowdown

•   Japan: Yen’s Slump Toward 140 Reawakens Talk of Currency Intervention

•   Energy: European Energy Prices Plunge as EU Plans to Intervene in Crisis

•   Natural gas: Gas prices slide in UK after record-breaking rally

•   Metals: Copper slides after Fed growth warning triggers sell-off

•   Iron ore: Iron Ore Tumbles Below $100 as China’s Steel Woes Worsen

•   Grains: Corn sags on recession fears, profit-taking after 2-month top

•   한국: 코스피, 개인 반발매수에 2,450대 회복…환율 1,350원 밑으로

•   한국: 회사채 금리 최고치…기업 자금조달 비상

[Indicators]

•   US Jun. Case–Shiller home price: Home-Price Growth Decelerated in June

•   US Jul. Job openings: U.S. Job Openings Rose in July as Hiring Accelerated

※   CNBC: ‘We’re not in a recession,’ say economists: Why the 11 million job openings are a key indicator

※   CNBC: Workers have the ‘upper hand’ right now as job openings jump, says labor economist — but that advantage may not last

•   US Aug. Consumer confidence: US Consumer Confidence Advances to Highest Level Since May

•   Eurozone Aug. Economic sentiment: Euro-Area Confidence Dips to 19-Month Low as Recession Nears

•   Germany Aug. CPI: German inflation hits 40-year high as calls mount for bigger ECB rate rises

•   Japan Jul. Employment: Japan's July job availability improves for 7th straight month

•   한국 2022년 창업기업 동향: 상반기 창업기업 70만개… 농업 늘고 부동산업 줄어

•   한국 7월 금융기관 가중평균 금리: 기업대출 금리 8년만에 年 4% 돌파

•   한국 7월 사업체 노동력 조사: 치솟는 물가에… 실질임금 3개월 연속 줄어

•   한국 7월 유통업체 매출: 7월 백화점 매출 전년比 32% 증가...반년 만에 증가율 최고

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukraine Tries to Make Southern Offensive a Turning Point in War

•   WSJ: Ukraine Aims to Build on Initial Gains in Southern Offensive

•   WSJ: Fed’s John Williams Says Rates Will Stay High for a While

※   Market expectations for interest-rate cuts soon appear incorrect, says New York Fed president

•   WSJ: Fed’s Barkin Says Central Bank Will do What it Takes to Lower Inflation

•   WSJ: Biden Still Undecided on Chinese Tariffs, Commerce Secretary Says

※   Some cabinet members, including Gina Raimondo, think a limited tariff reduction would help U.S. businesses and consumers

•   WSJ: Europe Braces for Russia Gas Disruption This Week—and Years of Higher Energy Prices Ahead

•   WSJ: U.S. Stops Iran From Seizing an American Naval Drone

•   WSJ: Iran Sends First Shipment of Combat Drones to Russia

•   WSJ: China’s Property Market Has Slid Into Severe Depression, Real-Estate Giant Says

•   WSJ: Inflation Bets Recede After Powell Speech

•   WSJ: Why Stocks Got Jolted

•   WSJ: Some GOP States Push Back Against ESG Investing Trend

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Seeks to Add Whistleblower Complaint to Case for Scrapping Twitter Deal

•   WSJ: Exxon Escalates Dispute With Russia Over Barred Exit From Giant Oil Project

•   WSJ: Best Buy Posts Drop in Sales as Shoppers Pull Back on Electronics

•   WSJ: Best Buy Says Supply-Chain Strains Are Improving Heading Into Fall

•   WSJ: China Blazes Hazy New Trail to Tame Internet’s Algorithms

•   WSJ: HP Warns of Slowing Business Spending as PC Sales Sag

•   WSJ: Data Centers Are Unpopular. All the Better for Their Stocks.

•   WSJ: Google, Meta and Others May Soon Need to Disclose Pay on California Job Listings

•   WSJ: Texas Reports First Death of a Person Diagnosed With Monkeypox

•   WSJ: Mikhail Gorbachev, Reformer of Soviet Union and Its Last Leader, Dies at 91

•   NYT: Biden’s Student Loan Plan Sets Off Fierce Debate Among Economists

•   NYT: China Sets Key Communist Party Congress for Mid-October

•   NYT: Russia’s Occupation of Nuclear Plant Gives Moscow a New Way to Intimidate

•   NYT: A Frontline Shadow Economy: Ukrainian Units Swap Tanks and Artillery

•   NYT: Why Pakistan was hit so hard

•   NYT: How German Companies Are Staring Down Putin’s Threat to Cut Off Gas

•   WP: Ukraine lures Russian missiles with decoys of U.S. rocket system

•   WP: The White House’s tricky comparison between student loan relief and GOP tax cuts

•   FT: Gazprom calls complete stop on gas deliveries to France’s Engie

※   Russian group cites lack of payment for contracts after Engie said deliveries would dwindle

•   FT: Eurozone inflation forecast to stay higher for longer as gas prices surge

•   FT: Winter is coming for the west’s energy alliance

•   FT: ‘On a par with the Russians’: rise in Chinese espionage alarms Europe

•   FT: The daunting in-tray facing Britain’s next prime minister

•   FT: US-China audit deal spurs hunt for devils in the details

•   FT: Climate envoy John Kerry seeks restart to US emissions talks with China

•   FT: Taiwan shoots at Chinese drone over outlying island for first time

※   Taipei seeks to balance assertive response against risk of sparking actual conflict

•   FT: Chinese borrowers pile pressure on banks with early mortgage payments

•   FT: IMF approves $1.1bn bailout package for Pakistan to help stave off default

•   FT: Sri Lanka raises taxes in effort to secure IMF bailout

•   FT: The growing evidence that Covid-19 is leaving people sicker

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Soft Landing Hinges on Job Market Doing Something Strange

•   Bloomberg: Bostic Says Inflation Progress Could Allow Slowing of Rate Hikes

•   Bloomberg: There’s a New Recession Canary in the Coal Mine, Morgan Stanley Says

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Says US Housing Downturn Has Further to Go as Rates Rise

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s Emergency Power Plan: The Options and Challenges Ahead

•   Bloomberg: ECB Tightening Should Be ‘Step by Step,’ Chief Economist Says

•   Bloomberg: Recession Fears Shouldn’t Delay Rate Hikes, ECB’s Nagel Says

•   Bloomberg: China Slowdown Means Contrasting Fortunes for Asia’s Exporters

•   Bloomberg: Xi’s Tech Crackdown Fuels Another Crisis: Out-of-Work Youth

•   Bloomberg: China Fills Void as Foreign Brands Flee Russian Market During War

•   Bloomberg: China’s Covid-Hit Tourism Season Deals Fresh Blow to the Economy

•   Bloomberg: China Gets More Aggressive in Pushing Back Against Weaker Yuan

•   Bloomberg: China’s Sichuan Pivots From Historic Drought to Flood Warnings

•   Bloomberg: China’s Covid Zero Tested as Broadest Outbreak Hits All Provinces

•   Bloomberg: China’s Premier Li Says Stimulus Now ‘More Forceful’ Than 2020

•   Bloomberg: Turkey’s Economy Powers On Through Worst Inflation in Two Decades

•   Bloomberg: World’s Hottest Economy Goes Cold as Chileans Run Out of Money

•   Bloomberg: Economists See India Raising Rates to 6% by December

•   Bloomberg: Africa’s Biggest Oil Producer Struggles Despite Price Bonanza

•   Bloomberg: Energy Crisis Will See Euro Rise Further Versus Pound, MUFG Says

•   Bloomberg: Russian Crude Shipments to Asia Slump to Lowest Since March

•   Bloomberg: Patchwork LNG Cargoes From Asia Are Helping Meet Europe’s Energy Demand

•   Bloomberg: Shortage of 50-Cent Chips Holds Up $50,000 Cars, TSMC Chief Says

•   Bloomberg: China’s Main Power Firm Shifts to Longer Debt Amid Project Boom

•   Bloomberg: Electric Vehicles Have China’s Massive Middle Market Surrounded

•   Bloomberg: Omicron-Targeting Covid Booster Shots Offer Only Slight Advantage

•   Reuters: Chorus backing big ECB rate hike grows

•   Reuters: Brazil 2023 budget bill to lower welfare program but will indicate gov't intention to increase it -sources

•   Reuters: Brazil's Treasury to present flexible spending cap rule proposal after election

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Attacks on major Iraqi gasfield drive out U.S. contractors

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Iraqi Kurdistan's oil output could halve without investment - documents

•   Reuters: Analysis: Aggressive Fed spurs worries over stock valuations

•   Reuters: Analysis: Surging energy prices create perfect storm for UK bonds

•   Reuters: Analysis: Musk's bold goal of selling 20 million EVs could cost Tesla billions

•   CNBC: Worst is yet to come: Economist Stephen Roach says U.S. needs ‘miracle’ to avoid recession

•   CNBC: UK inflation could top 22% as energy prices soar, Goldman Sachs warns

•   CNBC: Snap will lay off 20% of staff, report says

•   MarketWatch: Economist predicts a ‘whopper’ of recession in 2023 — and that’s not necessarily due to higher interest rates

•   Markets Insider: 'Rich Dad Poor Dad' author Robert Kiyosaki warns of an imminent market crash - and says downturns are the best times to get rich

•   SCMP: China’s yuan slides on hawkish Fed, but weakening Asian FX threaten export edge

•   SCMP: ‘Taiwan Strait militarisation’ marks a first for India as Chinese ‘spy ship’ row festers

•   SCMP: Young and out of a job in China: how Covid-19 is creating an unemployment crisis

•   SCMP: China’s highlights economy-boosting infrastructure push with mega US$10 billion canal project

•   SCMP: China EV makers including Nio, Xpeng, Li Auto take Covid-19 hit as outbreak closes Chengdu car show five days early

•   SCMP: China’s plastic problem: lack of circular economy stifling ‘necessary’ reform of high-pollution industry

•   Nikkei Asia: Inflation tax hits $4.5tn in U.S., Europe amid global price hikes

•   Nikkei Asia: Toyota's global vehicle output drops again; annual target in doubt

•   Nikkei Asia: Honda chases next big thing in EVs: solid-state batteries

•   Nikkei Asia: Frustrated Evergrande bondholders push own plan for debt restructuring

•   Nikkei Asia: Farming out: China's overseas food security quest

•   Nikkei Asia: Storing data on floppy disks? Japan tells bureaucracy time to stop

•   Economic Times: India's economy can touch $20 trillion by 2047, says EAC-PM Chairman Debroy

•   매경(P1): 내년 예산 639조…'퍼주기 재정' 시대 끝

※   기재부: "따뜻한 나라, 역동적 경제, 건전한 재정" 2023년 예산안 및 2022~2026년 국가재정운용계획

•   매경: 건전재정 작심한 尹정부…국가채무 급증 5년만에 제동걸었다

•   매경: 내년 세수 400조…고물가에 부가세 늘어

•   매경: '24조 허리띠죄기' 4급 이상 공무원 임금동결

•   매경: 반지하서 지상 이사 땐 5천만원 무이자대출 [尹정부 첫 예산안]

•   매경: 병장 월130만원…尹공약 밀어붙이기

•   매경: 반도체 1조…7대 전략기술 4조5천억 투자

•   매경: 文정부 때 만든 지역화폐 다 사라지나…내년 예산 전액삭감

•   매경(P1): 전문가 80% "내년에도 집값 하락"

•   매경: "금리 치솟고 주택정책 실망"…집값 상승전망 4개월새 확 뒤집혀

•   매경: 집값 계속 떨어지는데…무주택자 내집 마련 적기는 언제?

•   매경(P1): 직장인 건보료 月2천원 더낸다

•   매경: 7년 내내 오른 건보료율…정부, 文케어 개혁안 곧 발표

•   매경: 한국판 내셔널 몰…'보훈성지' 용산에 만든다

•   매경: 택시 택배·공유차 공항주차…혁신서비스 다 막힌 한국

•   매경: 10년간 축적해둔 공공데이터…민간에 풀면 혁신 불붙어

•   매경: 뿔난 정부…'美전기차 보조금 중단' 맞대응 카드 만지작

•   매경: "재산 숨기고 새출발기금으로 빚 탕감?…도덕적 해이 막을 대책 다 세워놨다"

•   매경: 수주 호황에 인력난 빠진 조선업계…현대重그룹 3社 '인력 빼가기' 논란

•   매경: 국감시즌 돌아오자 바짝 긴장하는 이 종목

•   한경(P1): 2030년 원전비중 24%→33%로 대폭 확대

※   산업부: ｢제10차 전력수급기본계획｣ 총괄분과위 실무안 공개

•   한경(P1): 농협은행, 금리인하 수용률 1위

•   한경: "승진하면 대출 금리 인하되죠?"…4건 중 1건만 받아들였다

•   한경: 예대금리차 이어 금리인하요구권까지…"금융사 줄 세우기 부작용 우려"

•   한경: 내년 조세부담률 22.6%…10년 만에 하락

•   한경: GTX 사업 218억 늘려 '속도전'

•   한경: '세금 일자리' 3년 만에 100만개 밑으로…신기술 인재 20만명 키운다

•   한경: 호봉제 탓…韓 세대간 임금격차 '세계 최대'

•   한경: 소득 상위 20%가 받은 '현물복지'…하위 20%의 2배

•   한경: 1주택자 종부세 타협점 찾나…秋 '공제액 12억' 절충안 제시

•   한경: 현대차·SK·두산 등 241곳 참여…국내 최대 수소산업 전시회 개막

•   한경: 암호화폐 2조 '불법 외환거래' 꼬리 잡혔다

•   서경(P1): "지금은 주식 담을 때…무주택자, 내년 이 시기 노려라" [머니트렌드 2022]

•   서경: [머니트렌드]“내년 상반기까지 무주택자 급할 것 없어…생활권내 10~20% 조정 급매물 노려라”

•   서경: SOC 10% 줄여 건전 재정 속도…문화 분야도 6.5% 삭감 8.5조

•   서경: "고준위방폐장 2035년 확보…처분시설 2050년부터 운영"

•   서경: "원가 압력 못견뎌"… 종이값 7% 또 오른다

•   조선: 납품단가연동제 시작 전부터 삐걱… 신청 대기업 5곳뿐

•   조선비즈: ‘숨은 규제’ 개선 나선 정부…인증 절차 간소화하고 사업 지원 기준 합리화

•   조선비즈: 대만 TSMC, 삼성 겨냥한 듯 “우린 설계·생산 다 하는 경쟁자와 달리 믿고 맡겨도 된다”

•   조선비즈: 삼성디스플레이, QD-OLED 본격 확장…제품 늘리고, 생산역량 증대

•   조선비즈: 추경호 “8月 물가 상승률 6% 안 넘을 것”

•   조선비즈: “온종일 환율 확인하는 게 일”… 금값된 달러에 속 타는 사람들

•   조선비즈: 힘 못 쓰는 ESG… “경기 침체 우려 땐 관심 적을 수밖에”

•   조선비즈: 앞다퉈 가져가던게 엊그제 같은데… 공동주택용지 외면하는 건설사들

•   조선비즈: 전 세계에 단 3종… 용두사미 수소車 ‘그린워싱’ 논란

•   인베스트조선: 이번엔 정공법인 줄…또 우회로 택한 현대차그룹의 아쉬운 소통 방식

•   동아: [단독]삼성-현대, SM엔터와 ‘팀코리아’ 구성, 670조원 사우디 ‘네옴시티’ 수주 나서

•   동아: “합리적 시장가 형성에 기여” “공기업 회계 손실 우려” 찬반 팽팽

•   동아: SH 김헌동 사장 “서울 아파트 6억 원에 공급해도 30% 이익 남아”

•   서울: [단독] 접종 여부 상관없이 입국 전 코로나 검사 폐지

•   세계: 기업 ‘RE100’ 가입 느는데… 한국만 재생에너지 ‘나홀로 감축’ [뉴스 투데이]

•   경향: 원전에만 매달리는 정부…탄소중립 실현 가능할까

•   경향: 청년 ‘1억 통장’, 결국 ‘4000만원 통장’ 됐다

•   머니투데이(P1): 이복현 금감원장 "증권사 공매도 검사, 제재보다 시스템 개선 목적"

•   머니투데이(P1): 650조 네옴시티, 'K-건설' 품으로‥해외수주 연 500억불 '시동'

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 이번엔 소형원전 수출길 열리나

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "고금리·역전세난 무섭다" 월세살이 급증...집값 약세 전환, 전세 기피 부추겨

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]한전기술, 국민연금 ‘블랙리스트’ 올랐다

•   아시아경제(P1): 폴란드 수출 대박에 방산 4사, 상반기 해외매출 20% 넘었다

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]2030 타깃 전세금 ‘먹튀’ 기승..대위변제 2년새 4배 늘어

•   디지털타임스: "규제 입법 쉽게 만들어지는 관행 개선"

•   이데일리: 고기능성 방화문 수급차질 빚나..‘안전 Vs 中企 보호’ 갈등

•   이데일리: 동반위 '중기 적합업종' 무용론…대기업·중소기업 모두 '불만'

•   이데일리: “산업 경쟁력 저하 우려..중기 적합업종 제도 손질 이뤄져야”

•   이데일리: 원자재 1%p 오를 때 생산자 물가 0.13%p 상승…휘발유 등 석유정제 직격탄

※   한국은행: 조사통계월보 2022년 8월호

•   이데일리: 택시대란 대안 ‘탄력호출요금제’ 거론…플랫폼 업계 “실효성 글쎄”

•   이데일리: 경매시장도 찬바람…강남 '똘똘한 한 채'도 유찰

•   연합: 오후 9시 전국 10만790명 확진…1주 전보다 3만3693명↓

•   연합: 외국인 건보 '먹튀'?…지난해 외국인 재정수지 5천125억원 흑자

•   연합: 산업부, 일부 부서명 변경…"새 정부 국정철학 반영"

•   뉴스1: [단독]얼어붙은 코인 투자…은행 가상자산 거래소 수수료 수입 '반토막'

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Robert J. Barro): Understanding Recent US Inflation

•   Project Syndicate(Ilan Goldfajn, Eduardo Levy Yeyati): Latin America’s Triple Policy Challenge

•   Project Syndicate(Andrew Sheng, Xiao Geng): Sustainable Development Is a Matter of Market Design

•   Project Syndicate(Slavoj Žižek): Ukraine’s Tale of Two Colonizations

•   FT(Martin Wolf): Tough economic times lie ahead

•   FT(Sylvie Kauffmann): War in Ukraine has shaken the EU’s power dynamics

•   FT(Lex): Energy prices: volatility of German power smacks of market dislocation

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Iran Tells the Truth About Inspections and the Nuclear Deal

•   WSJ(Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.): Europe’s Winter of Living Bravely

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Europe’s Gonna Party Like It’s 1979

•   WP(Henry Olsen): Why interest rates will keep going up

•   WP(Paul Waldman): If Republicans take the House, they’re going to impeach Joe Biden

•   WP(Paul Waldman, Greg Sargent ): Biden’s victory lap on green jobs: The politics of the future?

•   WP(Ai Weiwei): Why Xi’s ‘united front’ is vital to the artificial concept of a ‘Chinese nation’

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): As Natural Gas Prices Soar, UK Needs a Real Energy Plan

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): Pakistan Could Have Averted Its Climate Catastrophe

•   Bloomberg(Conor Sen): Don’t Sweat a Housing Crash as Long as Wages Are Rising

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Jerome Powell Can’t Count on a Labor Market Miracle

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Junk Bond Traders Ought to Check In With Economists

•   Bloomberg(James Stavridis): Putin Can Be Pressured to Pull Troops From Ukraine Nuclear Plant

•   Bloomberg(Mark Gilbert): Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant: The World Must Avoid a Chernobyl Redux

•   CNN(Patrick De Haan): We have finally gotten some relief at the pump. But it may not last long