Global Economic Monitor 230124

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks, euro gain amid divergent Fed, ECB rate hike outlooks

•   Natural gas: European Gas Declines as Strong Reserves Counter Icy Weather

•   Metals: Demand recovery hopes help copper towards seven-month high

•   Grains: Soybeans fall as rain expected to aid Argentine crop

[Indicators]

•   US Dec. Leading indicators: U.S. leading indicators index falls for 10th straight month

•   Eurozone Jan. Consumer confidence: Eurozone Consumer Confidence Extends Upward Trend to January

[World]

•   WSJ: Janet Yellen Pushes China on Debt Relief for Zambia

•   WSJ: Biggest Pay Raises Went to Black Workers, Young People and Low-Wage Earners

•   WSJ: Biden’s Green Subsidies Are Attracting Billions of Dollars to Red States

•   WSJ: U.S. Weapons Industry Unprepared for a China Conflict, Report Says

•   WSJ: Russia Presses Attack in Ukraine’s South While Kyiv Waits for Weapons

•   WSJ: Turkey’s Erdogan Threatens to Block Sweden’s NATO Entrance Over Quran Burning

•   WSJ: Iraq’s Prime Minister Dismisses Central Bank Governor Amid Currency Drop

•   WSJ: Market Recovery Hinges on Quick Inflation Drop

•   WSJ: Banks Plan Payment Wallet to Compete With PayPal, Apple Pay

•   WSJ: Microsoft to Deepen OpenAI Partnership, Invest Billions in ChatGPT Creator

•   NYT: Inflation Is Cooling, Leaving America Asking: What Comes Next?

•   NYT: China’s Mad Dash Into a Strategic Island Nation Breeds Resentment

•   NYT: Power Outage Sweeps Pakistan, Dropping Millions Into Darkness

•   FT: EU to examine seizing confiscated Russian assets for reconstruction

•   FT: Poland to seek Berlin’s approval to send tanks to Ukraine

•   FT: The Russia corporate divestment that never happened

•   FT: Former FBI agent charged with violating sanctions by working for Oleg Deripaska

•   FT: Bank of England expected to keep up interest rate rises

•   FT: Sunak accused of burdening UK economy with legislative ‘chaos’

•   FT: CBI chief urges UK to counter US and EU ‘arms race’ on green subsidies

•   FT: Rural China runs short of Covid drugs over lunar new year holiday

•   FT: Oil market braces for fresh turmoil as EU prepares to cut off Russian diesel

•   FT: Ford plans to slash jobs in Europe, says German union

•   Bloomberg: Something Has Shifted in How People Are Talking About the Economy

•   Bloomberg: Yellen Sees ‘Very Helpful Signs’ on US Inflation Front

•   Bloomberg: ECB Will Stay Course to Return Inflation to 2%, Lagarde Says

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Kazimir Joins Hawks in Urging More Half-Point Hikes

•   Bloomberg: Germany ‘More or Less’ Stagnated in Late 2022, Bundesbank Says

•   Bloomberg: Europe Is Bracing for a Sharp, Abrupt Real Estate Reversal

•   Bloomberg: UK Recession May be Cut Short by High-Spending Chinese Tourists

•   Bloomberg: Chinese City Experiences Coldest Temperature in Nation’s Records

•   Bloomberg: US Sanctions Iran Foundation Used to Fund Protest Crackdown

•   Bloomberg: US to Boost Pressure on China to Stop Importing Iran Oil, Envoy Says

•   Bloomberg: Economists Laugh Off South America’s Common Currency Idea

•   Bloomberg: Won’s Rally Nears Final Leg as Signs of Weaker Economy Mount

•   Bloomberg: Morgan Stanley Says US Stocks Aren’t Pricing Weak Data

•   Bloomberg: France Needs to Study Impact of Global Warming on Nuclear Plants, Watchdog Says

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: The Global Economy Needs a New Powerhouse. India Is Stepping Up

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Wind Turbines Taller Than the Statue of Liberty Are Falling Over

•   Reuters: Analysis: ECB seen struggling to keep market on side after mixed messages

[Korea]

•   국회: '맹탕' 1월 임시국회…'이재명 방탄·北무인기' 공방만 시끌

•   국회: [단독] 민생보다 정쟁만 일삼는데… 국회의원, 설날 상여금 414만원 받았다

•   민주당: 檢출석 앞둔 이재명, '대장동 배임 의혹' 방어논리 마련 진력

•   민주당: 野 '이태원참사 특별법' 박차…'이상민 탄핵' 카드는 고심

•   민주당: 옛 참모 고초에 안타까움 토로한 文, 책방 소통으로 목소리 낼까

•   정무위(박재호): 핀테크 업계, 후불결제 연체증가에 고심…"연체정보 공유해달라"

•   정무위(윤창현): 윤창현 의원 "장병 사회복귀 지원...내일준비적금 비과세 4년 연장"

•   정무위(최승재): 與 최승재, '보조금 부정청구 제재' 사전고지의무 법안 발의

•   금융위: 금융당국 '주가조작 세력 계좌' 신속 동결 추진

•   금융위: '6+3' 주기적 지정제 완화…내달 10일 공청회 연다

•   금감원: 2023년 공공기관 지정 이달말 발표…금감원 지정유보 논의

•   금감원: 금감원, 고객 확인 의무 위반한 케이뱅크 임원에 ‘주의’

•   금감원: 금감원, 현대차 금융복합기업집단에 내부통제 주의 요구

•   금감원: [단독] 금감원, 워너비그룹 유사수신 혐의로 수사의뢰

•   서금원: "연체자도 신청하면 당일 소액대출"…긴급생계비 준비 '분주'

•   금융시장: 은행 대출금리 보름새 1%p '뚝'…이번주 7%대 사라지고 6%대로

•   금융사: 시중은행, 30일 마스크 해제되면 바로 영업시간 1시간 늘릴 듯

•   공정위: ‘특고=사업자’공정위 판단이 불러온 특고 논란

•   기재부: "물가 상승률 1분기 지나면 4%대…하반기엔 3%대"

•   한은: [단독] '3만원권'에 신중한 한은, 왜? "지난해 조사서 수요 적었다"

•   거시경제: [인터뷰] 배리 아이켄그린 “연준 피벗 없을 것…한은, 인플레이션 억제 주력해야”

•   산업부: 이창양 "반도체, 하반기 수출회복 기대… 中과 '칩4' 물밑소통"

•   경제단체: "배터리 종주국 회복나선 일본, K배터리도 전략 수정·보완해야"

•   비금융사: 30대그룹 사외이사 37% 임기만료…연임제한에 56명은 꼭 바뀐다

•   비금융사: IRA 광물요건 시행 코앞인데…배터리 소재 中의존 갈수록 심해

•   비금융사: [단독] 국제 펄프값 1년 만에 하락…고공행진 멈추나

•   국토위(박상혁): 전세금 반환요청 5명 중 2명은 악성 임대인에게 보증금 떼였다

•   국토부: 건설노조 불법행위, 이번엔 정부가 직접 현장조사

•   국토부: 원희룡 "투자와 투기 엉킬 수 있다...강남 규제 해제 계획無"

•   부동산시장: 전세수요 위축에 … 서울 빌라 전세가율 80% 아래로

•   부동산시장: 내달부터 강남권 대규모 입주 … 전셋값 좌우할 바로미터

•   부동산시장: 규제 풀자 매수심리 '꿈틀'… 집값 본격 반등은 '글쎄'

•   노동시장: 최근 1년새 자영업자 34만명이 사업접고 실직자됐다

•   외교부: 日외무상 "독도는 일본땅"… 韓정부 "즉각 철회"

•   외교통상: 이란 외무부 “韓 정부, 실수 바로잡으려 했지만 조치 불충분”

•   질병관리청: 국내 코로나 누적 확진자 3천만명 넘어

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Yanis Varoufakis): Is Europe Deindustrializing?

•   Project Syndicate(Daniel Yergin): The Energy Transition Confronts Reality

•   FT(Editorial Board): Rishi Sunak’s government of disorder

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): The world’s democracies need to stick together

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): The rest-of-world rally, redux

•   FT(Laura Noonan): Europe seeks to revive moribund securitisation market

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Nationwide Rent Control?

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): NATO’s Willing Members vs. Germany

•   WSJ(James Freeman): The President Who Won’t Negotiate

•   WP(Jennifer Rubin): The GOP tax plan is to let the rich pay less and make you pay more

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Don’t Get Disoriented by Recession-Talk Fatigue

•   Bloomberg(Lionel Laurent): The Crypto Crackdown Is Just Getting Started