Global Economic Monitor 230123

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks rally with Netflix; dollar jumps vs yen after BOJ governor remarks

※   Wall Street stocks rally with Netflix, Alphabet

※   Oil prices end sharply higher

※   Dollar sees biggest daily pct gain in about 2 wks vs yen

•   Metals: Copper drifts lower as China kicks off Lunar New Year holiday

•   Grains: Soybeans sag on improving Argentine crop weather; wheat rises

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Reaches Highest Since August Amid Second Weekend Surge

[Indicators]

•   US Dec. Existing home sales: U.S. Existing-Home Sales Slid Last Year as Interest Rates Surged

※   WSJ: Housing’s Big Hurdle Is Affordability

•   US Weekly Rig count: U.S. oil rig count falls this week by most since Sept 2021 - Baker Hughes

•   Germany Dec. PPI: German producer price inflation eases to lowest since November 2021

•   UK Dec. Retail sales: British retail sales drop unexpectedly in December

•   UK Jan. Consumer confidence: UK consumer confidence suffers fresh drop

•   Japan Dec. CPI: Japan’s core inflation hits 41-year high with central bank under policy pressure

[World]

•   WSJ: More Classified Documents Found at President Biden’s Delaware Home

※   Justice Department’s search of president’s Wilmington residence lasted about 12 hours

•   WSJ: Janet Yellen Says Treasury Can’t Prevent Default if U.S. Breaches Debt Limit

•   WSJ: Janet Yellen Dismisses Minting $1 Trillion Coin to Avoid Default

•   WSJ: Patrick Harker Says Fed Can Lower Inflation Without a Recession

•   WSJ: Fed Official Favors Quarter-Point Rate Rise in February

•   WSJ: Fed Sets Course for Milder Interest-Rate Rise in February

※   WSJ: Officials could begin weighing whether and when to pause rate increases this spring

•   WSJ: Unemployed Americans Find Job Searches Take Longer as Labor Market Cools

•   WSJ: Homeowners Struggle to Get Pandemic Aid Meant to Stop Foreclosures

•   WSJ: Shining a Light (Literally) on How Much Dictators Manipulate Their Economic Stats

•   WSJ: Ukraine’s Winter Could Turn Against Russian Troops

•   WSJ: Ukraine War Lands Europe’s Leaders in a Battle of Wills

•   WSJ: Russia Claims Advances in Ukraine’s South as Allies Stall on Tank Deliveries

•   WSJ: France’s Macron Seeks Bigger Military, Leaner Pension System

•   WSJ: China’s Global Mega-Projects Are Falling Apart

•   WSJ: China Confronts First Lunar New Year Since Covid Lockdowns Ended

•   WSJ: China Visa Offices Overwhelmed in Wake of Border Opening

•   WSJ: Chinese ‘Revenge Spending’ Might Not Hit U.S. Levels

•   WSJ: Lagarde Says China’s Economic Rebound Revives Inflation Worries

•   WSJ: China’s Reopening Complicates Global Fight Against Inflation

•   WSJ: Brazilian Riot Investigators Probe Possible Crimes Against Democracy

•   WSJ: The Ultimate Contrarian Indicator to Start the Year

•   WSJ: Federal Reserve Probes Goldman’s Consumer Business

•   WSJ: SPAC Deals Shrink After Speculation Wanes

•   WSJ: Crypto Banks Borrow Billions From Home-Loan Banks to Plug Shortfalls

•   WSJ: U.S. Seizes Additional Assets Tied to Bankrupt FTX

•   WSJ: The Offshore Oil Business Is Gushing Again

•   WSJ: Google Parent Alphabet to Cut 12,000 Jobs Amid Wave of Tech Layoffs

•   WSJ: How Apple Has So Far Avoided Layoffs: Lean Hiring, No Free Lunches

•   WSJ: Tech Layoffs Unwind Recent Head-Count Growth, Torpedo Long-Shot Projects

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Sold Tesla Shares Before Company Acknowledged Weakness

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Flags Tweets’ Limitations in Tesla Trial

•   WSJ: Tesla’s Price Cuts Are Roiling the Car Market

•   WSJ: GM, LG Scrap Plans to Partner on Fourth U.S. Battery Factory

•   WSJ: Ericsson Warns of Slowing 5G Orders in North America

•   WSJ: Siemens Gamesa Needs Time to Fix Fleet Component Failures, CEO Says

•   WSJ: Longer Battery Life, Better Screens: New Display Tech From Apple, Google, Others Is Just Around the Corner

•   WSJ: Investors Plow Into Renewables, but Projects Aren’t Getting Built

•   WSJ: Will Using More Biofuels Be Good for the Environment? Two Experts Square Off.

•   WSJ: Worst Avian Flu in U.S. History Is Hitting Poultry, Wild Birds, Even Bears

•   NYT: How the U.S. Government Amassed $31 Trillion in Debt

•   NYT: Google Calls In Help From Larry Page and Sergey Brin for A.I. Fight

•   NYT: How Smart Are the Robots Getting?

•   WP: Russia’s state nuclear company aids war effort, leading to calls for sanctions

•   WP: Lula ousts head of Brazil’s army in wake of insurrection

•   WP: Gangnam fire highlights inequality in Seoul’s richest area

•   FT: Things are looking up for the global economy

•   FT: Can you predict the year ahead better than these experts?

•   FT: Germany defies allies’ pressure to send tanks to Ukraine

•   FT: Why are Ukraine’s allies arguing about tanks?

•   FT: Eurozone set to avoid recession this year as economists’ gloom lifts

•   FT: Euro regains ground against dollar as global economic outlook improves

•   FT: Macron and Scholz meet in bid to improve strained relations

•   FT: The Bank of England’s inflation problem is even worse than it looks

•   FT: UK High Court judge finds ‘striking consensus’ of abuses in Xinjiang

•   FT: National Grid to pay customers to cut power as freezing weather bites UK

•   FT: Will US growth have slowed in the fourth quarter of 2022?

•   FT: Davos delegates praise Biden’s ‘huge’ green package, as Europe voices complaints

•   FT: Japan’s wage watershed raises economic hopes

•   FT: North Korean drone incursion rattles nerves in Seoul over air defences

•   FT: Brazil and Argentina to start preparations for a common currency

•   FT: Deadly protests spread in Peru: ‘We will be here until Boluarte resigns’

•   FT: Investors pump trillions of dollars a day into ultra-safe Fed facility

•   FT: Deutsche Bank slashes investment banker bonuses but rewards traders

•   FT: ‘Nightmare’: collapse of leading crypto lender traps investors

•   FT: Cautious crypto companies make muted return to Davos

•   FT: Dutch government aims to close Europe’s largest gasfield this year

•   FT: Australian coal producers post bumper profits despite China ban

•   Bloomberg: Slowdown Could Linger Into 2024, World Bank’s Malpass Tells Sky

•   Bloomberg: US Can Slow Inflation Without Unemployment Spike, Fed Study Says

•   Bloomberg: US Economy Seen Shrinking in Next Two Quarters, Survey Shows

•   Bloomberg: Summers Warns of 1970s Crisis If Central Banks Relent on Rates

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Knot Wants at Least Two More Half-Point Rate Hikes

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Rehn Sees Grounds for Significant Rate Hikes in Spring

•   Bloomberg: ECB Should Stick to Half-Point Hikes for Months, Holzmann Says

•   Bloomberg: Macron Approval Slides in Poll After Plan to Raise Retirement Age

•   Bloomberg: How Europe Needs Freight Trains to Cross Russia From China

•   Bloomberg: Germany Beat Putin’s Energy Squeeze. But for How Long?

•   Bloomberg: Germany Saw 180,000 Excess Deaths During Three Years of Covid

•   Bloomberg: Sunak Urged to Cut UK Use of Taiwan Chips Due to China Risk

•   Bloomberg: China Injects Record Amount of Cash This Week Before Holidays

•   Bloomberg: China Says Covid Deaths Top 12,600 and More Than 1 Billion Infected

•   Bloomberg: China to Speed Up Construction of Coal Power Plants This Year

•   Bloomberg: Tweaks to Japan’s Inflation Accord Would Flag BOJ Policy Change

•   Bloomberg: Japan’s Kishida Says Too Early to Discuss BOJ Accord Revision

•   Bloomberg: Economists Forecast Dismal Year for Latin American Economies, Especially Chile

•   Bloomberg: South Africa’s Power Crisis Untenable, Mr Price Chairman Says

•   Bloomberg: What are the Possible Market Impacts of the New EU Gas Price Cap?

•   Bloomberg: Gazprom Curbs Flows to Europe Via Ukraine for a Second Day

•   Bloomberg: Next Risk for Gasoline Price Spikes Comes From Peak US Demand

[Korea]

•   대통령실: 아인슈타인 모교 간 尹 “양자과학이 미래기술 핵심”

•   대통령실: [뉴스 분석] 이유 있는 바이 코리아

•   대통령실: 대통령실 “尹, 상반기 訪日에 긍정적”

•   대통령실: 대통령실 “이란, 尹발언 오해해 사안의 초점 흐려져”

•   국회: 與 “文정부, 간첩수사 막았다면 반역죄” 野 “공안통치 신호탄”

•   국회: 野 사법 리스크 vs 與 당권 경쟁 골몰 … 설 이후에도 민생 없다

•   국회: 21대 국회 계류법안 1만3천여건…행안위가 1천897건 최다

•   민주당: 野 "영업사원이라더니 거래처 박살내"

•   민주당: 이재명, 野의원 전원에 설인사 전화 돌렸다

•   민주당: 이재명 “尹정권, 서민 쥐어짜고 초부자에 퍼줘”

•   민주당: "친문·586 손잡는다"... 이재명 檢출석 직후 비명계 모임 출범

•   민주당: [단독]민주당, 공세 때마다 특위…3중, 4중 겹치기도

•   국민의힘: 나경원 "尹대통령에 깊이 사과드린다"

•   정무위: 가상자산 규제 시동 건 금융당국…국회선 가상자산법 논의 '공회전'

•   금감원: [단독]저축銀 불법대출 기승…금감원 '무늬만 사업장'까지 걸러낸다

•   금감원: [뉴스야?! 단독] 금감원도 칼 든 '文정부' 펀드 수사?

•   금감원: 금감원, 대출관리 미흡 상호금융사 경영유의

•   금감원: 금감원, 삼성생명에 '퇴직연금 리스크 관리' 요구

•   주금공: 특례보금자리론, 국회 예산 증액에도 벌써부터 수요 미달 우려

•   주금공: “금리 오름세에 전세마저도 힘들다”...월세전환에 전세보증 인상폭 꺾여

•   금융시장: 코스피, 소폭 상승해 2,390대 마감…외인 8거래일째 순매수

•   금융시장: 예금금리 3%대로 뚝 … 물가도 꺾였다

•   금융시장: "금리정점론 빠르게 확산"… 3高에 짓눌렸던 소비회복 기대

•   금융시장: '이자장사' 경고에도…은행 예대금리차 되레 커졌다

•   금융시장: "고금리에 은행만 배불러"... 부랴부랴 금리 이어 수수료 감면

•   금융시장: 작년 어음부도율 4년만에 최고…부도 금액 18% 급증

•   금융시장: [시그널] 유동성 숨통 트였지만…롯데 이자부담 '눈덩이'

•   금융시장: [시그널] 적자 급증 LG디스플, 사채 발행금리 치솟아

•   금융시장: 그거 아니, 연진아?'…투자 큰손들의 하얀 거짓말[마켓인]

•   금융시장: 신평사에 드리운 '신뢰도' 논란

•   공정위: [단독]공정위, 법무부와 尹업무보고…“반도체 분야 엄정한 法집행”

•   공정위: 외부인 접촉 줄이는 공정위…업무 위축 우려도

•   기재부: "韓자본시장 외국인 투자 환경 확 바꿀것"

•   기재부: 기재부 왜 이러나... 고향기부금 시행 연기에 복권 오류도 쉬쉬

•   관세청: 새해초부터 수출 감소세 지속…무역적자 100억달러 넘어

•   한은: 한은 "CP·신용채권, 과거 위기시보다 빠르게 회복"

•   한은: 한은, 설 자금 4.2조 공급…작년보다 1조↓

•   거시경제: 코로나 3년 … 재정 쏟아부으며 나랏빚 400조 늘어

•   산자위: "폐업할 돈 없어서 간판만 남깁니다"…中企 '눈물의 휴업'

•   산업부: 안덕근 "WTO 투자원활화협정 타결 속도낼 것"

•   경제단체: "일 없을때 비축한 근로시간, 일 많을때 몰아쓰게 해달라"

•   경제단체: "月 5억 내던 전기료가 8억…우리도 할인해 달라" 불만

•   비금융사: [단독] 메모리 불황에…SK, 中공장 감산 '특단조치'

•   비금융사: [단독]"창고에 5개월치 쌓여"…메모리 수출 '분기 100억弗' 깨진다

•   비금융사: 하이닉스 4분기 영업익 적자 1조 넘을듯…삼성 반도체도 올 1분기 역성장 우려

•   비금융사: 中, 게임체인저 '3D D램' 개발 속도전

•   비금융사: 인텔 새 CPU 수혜…하이닉스 미소

•   비금융사: 삼성전자 '5G 망 쪼개기' 성공…상용화 속도낸다

•   비금융사: 환율 숨통 트인 기업들, 사업재정비 속도

•   비금융사: OLED TV 시장 더 치열해진다…삼성전자 이어 TCL도 합류 예고

•   비금융사: 중국 리오프닝에 철강업계 봄바람…실적 개선 기대감 '솔솔'

•   국토부: 다음달 말부터 다주택자도 ‘줍줍’…특공 분양가 9억 기준 폐지

•   HUG: [단독] 입주자 '날벼락'…'분양보증' 사고까지 터졌다

•   HUG: 부실위험 사업장 74%↑…'미분양 위험선' 6.2만 가구 눈앞에 곳곳 시한폭탄

•   부동산시장: "급매 계속 나와 불안불안"…재건축 앞둔 집주인들 '발동동'

•   부동산시장: 규제 풀리니 생숙·오피스텔 '찬밥'…억소리 나는 '마피' 시대

•   부동산시장: ‘둔촌주공 계약률 70%’에 냉정한 여의도의 시선… “선방아냐”

•   부동산시장: 지난해 서울 A급 오피스 공실률 13년 만에 최저…임대료도 상승

•   부동산시장: 건설사 후분양 '딜레마'

•   노동시장: '노조 전임비' 뜯어낸 건설노조만 50여곳

•   노동시장: "1686억은 빙산의 일각…건설노조가 뜯어간 돈 1조 될 것"

•   노동시장: 보복 무서워 피해 숨기는 건설사들…"만성적인 괴롭힘에 노조 트라우마"

•   노동시장: 지방 편의점 알바에겐 … 최저시급은 '그림의 떡'

•   외통위(우상호): 비명계 '분리대응론'에 발끈한 우상호

•   외교부: 외교부 “日 사도광산 세계유산 재추진 유감”

•   행안부: [단독] 예고도 없이 분향소 간 이상민 장관, 유족 측 "도둑 조문" 비판 [이태원참사_기록]

•   법사위: 해 넘긴 개인정보보호法 개정…마이데이터 발목 잡나

•   법무부: 민주 “검찰, 대장동 공소장 흘려 언론플레이”…법무부 “흘린 적 없다” 반박

•   검찰: “이재명, 김만배 지분 절반 받는것 승인”

•   검찰: 검찰, 김성태 신병 확보 성공…쌍방울 자금의혹 수사 '탄력'

•   질병관리청: 840일만에 실내 마스크 해제

•   질병관리청: 사실상 엔데믹 … 교실·마트·영화관서 마스크 벗는다

•   국정원: [단독] "서훈, '청주간첩단' 사건 파악하고도 수사 뭉갰다"

•   국정원: “민노총 간부, 北 공작금 1만弗 국내 환전”

•   국정원: [단독]“민노총 간부들, 간첩혐의 충북동지회-‘제주 ㅎㄱㅎ’과도 교신”

•   서울시: 시위 재개에 강경 대응…풀리지 않는 전장연 사태

•   서울시: 작은도서관 예산 삭감 논란에 서울시 '뒷북' 지원 결정

•   도봉구: 방학동 도깨비시장에 '엄마아빠 VIP존' 생긴다

•   도봉구: 도봉구, 출근시간 전용버스 8101번 노선 연장

•   도봉구: 오언석 도봉구청장, 설 명절 민생현장 살핀다

•   강남구: "손주 줄 세뱃돈도 타버렸다”… 구룡마을 주민들 망연자실

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Joschka Fischer): Europe Transformed

•   Project Syndicate(Maximo Torero): The Second Green Revolution Will Be Digitized

•   FT(Editorial Board): The EU and US must find common ground on subsidies

•   FT(Martin Wolf): The dangers of magical thinking on health policy

•   FT(Helen Thomas): Watch law firms, not banks, to judge the City’s deep freeze

•   FT(Zoltan Pozsar): Great power conflict puts the dollar’s exorbitant privilege under threat

•   FT(David Sheppard): Putin is losing the energy war

•   FT(Brendan Greeley): The $1tn coin: a silly idea to resolve the US debt ceiling wrangles

•   FT(Sabine Mauderer): Eurozone can beat inflation while keeping markets stable

•   FT(Alexander Baunov): Putin is launching an assault on the last vestiges of Soviet identity

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Who Would Win a War Over Taiwan?

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Germany Blinks on Tanks for Ukraine

•   WSJ(Red Jahncke): Debt, Not the Debt Limit, Is the Real Fiscal Crisis

•   WSJ(William P. Barr): Congress Must Halt Big Tech’s Power Grab

•   WSJ(Suzanne P. Clark): The Chamber of Commerce Will Fight the FTC

•   NYT(Editorial Board): A Brutal New Phase of Putin’s Terrible War in Ukraine

•   NYT(Peter Coy): What America Should Do About Its Ballooning Debt

•   NYT(Jonathan Alter): Oh, Biden, What Have You Done?

•   WP(Editorial Board): Don’t ban TikTok. Make it safer for the country.

•   WP(Editorial Board): Germany is refusing to send tanks to Ukraine. Biden cannot let this stand.

•   WP(Iuliia Mendel): Ukrainians are bracing for the next Russian onslaught

•   Bloomberg(Tyler Cowen): How Will Geoengineering Work? Time for Some Game Theory

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): The Black Swans Are Coming to Congress to Roost

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): UK Strikes: If They Are Bad for the Economy, GDP Figures Can't Really Tell

•   Bloomberg(Andy Mukherjee): The Squeeze on India’s Spenders Is Yet to Lift

•   Bloomberg(Hal Brands): Is Germany Letting Ukraine Down? It’s Not That Simple

•   Bloomberg(Pankaj Mishra): Democracies Shouldn’t Gloat About China’s Stumbles

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