Global Economic Monitor 220701

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: S&P 500 closes the book on its steepest first-half slide since 1970

※   U.S. May consumer spending rises moderately; inflation stays hot

※   Nasdaq notches biggest-ever Jan-June percentage drop

※   Indexes down: Dow 0.82%, S&P 0.88%, Nasdaq 1.33%

•   Natural gas: Believe it or not, gas prices have been edging down ahead of Fourth of July — here’s why

•   Metals: Copper sees sharpest quarterly plunge since 2011

•   Grains: Soybeans end mostly lower, grains plunge after USDA acres data

•   한국: 코스피, 외국인·기관 대량 매도에 2,330대로 추락

[Indicators]

•   US May Personal spending·income: Cooling Consumer Spending Points to Further Economic Slowdown

※   Household spending in May rose at slowest rate this year; some economists see second-straight quarterly contraction

•   US Jun. PCE price index: Inflation Stayed High in May, According to Fed’s Preferred Measure

※   WSJ: The Fed Is Still Feeling the Inflation Heat

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: U.S. Jobless Claims Edged Lower Last Week

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates(Freddie Mac): Mortgage Rates Drop After Three Weeks of Increases

•   Eurozone May Employment: Euro zone unemployment falls to new record low of 6.6% in May

•   Germany May Retail sales: German retail sales inch up in May

•   Germany Jun. Employment: German Unemployment Unexpectedly Jumps on Ukrainian Refugees

•   UK Q1 Current account: UK trade performance falls to worst level on record in first quarter

•   UK Q1 Household incomes: UK Household Incomes Are in The Longest-Ever Run of Declines

•   UK Jun. Business confidence: UK Business Confidence Drops to 15-Month Low as Inflation Surges

•   China Jun. Home sales: China’s Home Sales Slump Eases in June After Support Measures

•   China Jun. PMI: China’s Economy Returns to Growth Mode as Covid-19 Lockdowns Lift

•   Japan May Industrial production: Japan's May factory output suffers biggest slump in two years

•   India Q1 External debt: India's external debt at $620.7 billion as of March 2022

•   India Q1 Government's liabilities: Govt's total liabilities rise 3.7% to Rs 133.22 lakh crore in March quarter

•   India May Fiscal account: Centre's fiscal deficit at 12.3% of full year target in May

•   India May Core industry production: Output of eight core industries surges to 18.1% in May

•   India Jun. Consumer sentiment: After three consecutive months of fall, consumer sentiments recover slightly in June

•   Brazil May Employment: Brazil Unemployment Hits Single Digits for First Time Since 2016

•   Saudi Arabia Q1 Employment: Saudi Unemployment Falls to Lowest Since 2008 as Economy Booms

•   한국 1분기 외환당국 순거래액: 정부, 원화값 방어에 사상최대 10조 투입

•   한국 2분기 국세 통계: 종부세 낸 사람 100만명…5년새 68만명 늘어

•   한국 5월 산업동향: 5월 생산·투자 반등…대외리스크에 회복세 지속은 '안갯속'

※   조선비즈: 지난달 국내 반도체 재고 53% 증가…4년여 만에 최대

•   한국 5월 금융기관 가중평균 금리: 치솟는 가계대출 금리… 한 총리 “경제전쟁 상황”

•   한국 5월 아파트 증여: 집값 떨어지자…아파트 증여 급증

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): "매물 쌓이는데 거래 실종"…서초구 빼고 서울 집값 다 하락

[News]

•   WSJ: Crypto’s Tumultuous Second Quarter Leaves Investors Asking: What Else Could Go Wrong?

•   WSJ: Growth Fears Challenge Soaring Oil Prices

•   WSJ: Treasury Bonds Rally at End of Second Quarter

•   WSJ: U.S. to Support Ukraine for ‘As Long as It Takes,’ Biden Says

※   Remarks conclude week of summits in which wealthy democracies pledged to bolster Europe’s defenses against Russia

•   WSJ: U.S., Key Allies Close Ranks Against China

•   WSJ: Biden Backs F-16 Sales to Turkey Amid Deal to Expand NATO

•   WSJ: Supreme Court Puts Brakes on EPA in Far-Reaching Decision

※   High court says agency overstepped its authority in restricting greenhouse gas emissions in a ruling with ramifications for other regulators

•   WSJ: Supreme Court Marks New Era of Ambitious Conservatism

•   WSJ: Biden Supports Exception to Filibuster to Codify Roe v. Wade Into Law

•   WSJ: FDA Wants Fall Covid-19 Boosters to Target Omicron Subvariants BA.4 and BA.5

•   WSJ: Geithner Says Fed’s Rate Pivot Highlights Need for Treasury Market Fixes

•   WSJ: OPEC, Allies Agree to Boost Oil Production Ahead of Biden’s Saudi Visit

※   Plan has done little to ease concerns over supply as several alliance members struggle to meet their share of production

※   OPEC: 30th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting

•   WSJ: Russian Gas Cuts Push Uniper Into Bailout Talks

•   WSJ: Shiploads of Russian Grain and Good Weather Temper Wheat Crisis

•   WSJ: Europe Moves to Defuse Tension With Moscow Over Russian Exclave Kaliningrad

•   WSJ: Xi Jinping Visits Hong Kong to Mark Anniversary, Capping Crushing of Dissent

•   WSJ: Indonesia’s Jokowi Visits Ukraine and Russia, Warning Food Crisis Looms

•   WSJ: Israel Sets New Election, Spotlighting Role of Arab Minority in Government

•   WSJ: General Motors Slowly Ramps Up Electric Hummer Production

•   WSJ: Tencent, ByteDance Implement Fresh Layoffs Amid China’s Economic Pains

•   WSJ: Qualcomm’s Apple Slice Still Has an Expiration Date

•   NYT: Ukraine drives Russian forces from Snake Island, a setback for Moscow.

•   WP: Think U.S. gas prices are high? Here’s how far $40 goes around the world.

•   WP: Africa’s desperate hunger: Ukraine war pushes Somalia toward famine

•   FT: France ready to bypass Hungary for global corporate tax deal

•   FT: Turkey’s Erdoğan threatens to derail Nato enlargement again

•   FT: North Macedonia signals acceptance of plan to unlock EU membership talks

•   FT: Military briefing: Nato brings back cold war doctrine to counter Russian threat

•   FT: Streaming now: eurocrisis, the sequel

•   FT: What six months of French presidency meant for the EU

•   FT: Italy issues bonds at highest borrowing costs since wake of eurozone debt crisis

•   FT: Why UK inflation will stay higher for longer than in other nations

•   FT: Negative impact of Brexit is clear, claims EU

•   FT: The reinvention of Hong Kong

•   FT: China lured graduate jobseekers into digital espionage

•   FT: Marcos Jr takes office with promise to ‘sweat’ on Filipinos’ behalf

•   FT: How much further can coal go?

•   Bloomberg: Economists Sour on US Outlook After Spending Stumbles

•   Bloomberg: Germany Risks ‘Imminent’ Recession on Gas Cutoff, Deutsche Bank Says

•   Bloomberg: Italy Approves Energy Relief as Draghi Battles Spike in Prices

•   Bloomberg: EU Should Seek Joint Borrowing For Ukraine Impact, Official Says

•   Bloomberg: UK Housing Market Sees Signs of a Slowdown After BOE Rate Hikes

•   Bloomberg: Tokyo Heatwave Hints at Even Bigger Power Crunch for Summer Peak

•   Bloomberg: Sri Lanka Breaks Into Hyperinflation Zone Amid Dollar Crunch

•   Bloomberg: Hunger Gap Rise Threatens Health Security, African Leaders Say

•   Bloomberg: Bolsonaro’s Cash Handouts Proposal Keeps Growing in Congress

•   Bloomberg: Ecuador Protest Ends With Indigenous Groups, Government Deal

•   Bloomberg: Metals Cap Worst Quarter Since 2008 on Global Downturn Angst

•   Bloomberg: US Port Talks Enter Crunch Time as Cargo Keeps Rolling

•   Bloomberg: Renewable Energy Costs Rise, Just Not as Much as Fossil Fuels

•   Bloomberg: These 4 Charts Show How Much Global Energy Has Changed Since 2000

•   Bloomberg: EU Floats Fix to Carbon Market-Based Plan to Fund Energy Pivot

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Chances for Iran nuclear deal worse after Doha talks, U.S. official says

•   Reuters: U.S. recession "more likely than not", same for Europe - PIMCO

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE ECB to channel cash from north to south in bid to cap spreads - sources

•   Reuters: Global nuclear power capacity needs to double by 2050 -IEA

•   Reuters: U.S. to add 6 GW offshore wind capacity through 2029 -EIA

•   Reuters: Tesla's run of record deliveries may be reaching the end of the road

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Meta girds for 'fierce' headwinds, slower growth in second half -memo

•   Reuters: Micron's weak outlook sparks concerns of chip down cycle

•   CNBC: Housing shortage starts easing as listings surge in June

•   CNBC: The crypto collapse shows the Fed’s job is ‘almost complete’ against inflation, Jim Cramer says

•   SCMP: China urged to boost defence talks with US, Japan, South Korea as trio joins hands on Pyongyang nuclear threat

•   SCMP: US-Taiwan trade talks rankle mainland China as ‘inevitable’ deal seen pulling island into US orbit

•   SCMP: US firms in China praise quarantine cut, but coronavirus restrictions still weigh heavy on confidence

•   SCMP: China stalls on EU trade talks date as push for Lithuania WTO case gains ground, bloc officials say

•   Caixin: Analysis: China's 'Zero-Covid' Policy Is Here to Stay Despite Relaxing of Quarantine Rules

•   Caixin: In Depth: How Chinese Factories Are Finding Their Way to Mexico

•   Nikkei Asia: EV supply chain: Japan, China vie for power in lithium standards

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan automakers' global output dropped again in May amid lockdowns

•   Nikkei Asia: TSMC struggles to keep new hires, warns of power supply risks

•   매경(P1): 세종 빼고 지방 투기과열지구 모두 해제

※   국토부: 지방 투기과열지구 해제 등 규제지역 조정

•   매경: "집값 튈라" 서울·수도권 놔두고…'미분양 무덤' 지방만 풀었다

•   매경(P1): "수익 찾아 삼만리"…美 채권 모으는 개미, 매수 4배 급증

•   매경: 생애 첫 집 살 때 LTV 80% 완화…최대 한도는 6억 [하반기 달라지는 것들]

※   기재부: 「2022년 하반기부터 이렇게 달라집니다」책자 발간

•   매경: 반도체 기업 품은 두산, 직원 식당부터 바꾸는 이유는?

•   한경(P1): "빚 많은 공공기관…비핵심 자산 팔라"

•   한경: 한전·LH 등 14곳 부채만 372조…개선 없으면 기관장 바꾼다

•   한경: 작년 공공기관에 '정부지원금 117조원' 투입

•   한경: 김대환 前장관 "대기업·공기관, 노동유연화 필요"

•   한경: 산단공장 폐업 4년새 5배 급증…벼랑 끝 내몰린 중소제조업체

•   한경: 비상장거래소 '개점 휴업' 위기

•   서경(P1): [단독] 고금리속…대기업 빚 11% 늘었다

•   서경: [단독] 시총상위 20곳 중 6곳, 빚 30% 이상 늘어…"증가 속도도 너무 가팔라"

•   서경(P1): 인건비에…소상공인 "차라리 폐업"

•   서경: 내년 최저임금 9620원…편의점주 “도저히 수용 못해”

•   서경: '역대 36번 중 13번' 공익위원 뜻대로…업종별 차등 적용 또 무산

•   서경(P1): 민주노총, "최저임금 이슈…하투 핵심동력"

•   서경: 이창용, 한은 총재 최초로 '잭슨홀 미팅' 발표

•   서경: '무늬만 직무급’에 부글부글 끓는 공공기관 MZ세대

•   서경: "식용유값 열흘새 33% 올라"…자영업자 '비용 짜내기'

•   조선(P1): 공공기관 구조조정, 지방정부가 시동 걸었다

•   조선: 경남 4년새 공무원 30% 급증… 강원도 산하 위원회만 189개

•   조선: 지방정부 채무 매년 눈덩이 증가… 올해 31조원 예상

•   조선: 시청사부터 물류창고까지… 단체장들, 전임자 사업 뒤집기

•   조선: “건보료 개편 제대로 안돼… 체감효과 미미”

•   조선: 소득·재산 상위 20% 노인들도 불안감 크다

•   조선: 튀르키예 야채 가격이 150% 뛰었다...농사 많이 짓는 나라가 왜?

•   조선: 수요 폭발, 인력난… ‘물류 자동화’에 아마존도 손정의도 수조씩 투자

•   조선: 코딩 모르는 문과생도 SW·앱 만드는 시대가 성큼

•   조선비즈: “국제 표준 선점하자”… 조선·IT, 선박 자율운항 ‘최초’ 경쟁

•   조선비즈: 삼성에 밀린 TSMC, 애플 손잡고 3나노 반격 나선다

•   조선비즈: [단독] 최태원, 이달 말 빌 게이츠 만난다…원전‧코인 투자 논의할 듯

•   조선비즈: 코로나19 감염재생산지수 1주째 1 이상… “7월 말 하루 1만명 나올수도”

•   조선비즈: “대기업 임금상승 자제” 주문한 추경호號 기재부, ‘최저임금 5% 인상’에는 침묵…왜?

•   조선비즈: [단독] 정부, ‘경단녀’ ‘육아휴직 복귀자’ 고용 기업 세액공제 확대 연장 방침

•   인베스트조선: LG엔솔 미국 공장 건설 전면 재검토…비용 부담 줄었지만 통상문제 비화 우려도

•   중앙(P1): K세일즈 외교 ‘중국 대안’ 유럽서 찾는다

•   중앙(P1): 올여름 폭염 걱정? 전력대란 더 걱정

•   JTBC: [팩트체크] 우리나라 1인당 전기 사용량이 세계 3위?

•   동아(P1): 대통령실 “한미, 北 개인-기관 제재 확대플랜 준비돼”

•   동아: 추경호 “기업, 가격인상 요인 흡수를”… 이복현은 금리인하 압박

•   동아: 사퇴 압박받는 홍장표, 부경대에 2학기 강의 신청

•   동아: 로봇 대중화 시대 성큼… “구독하고 보험도 들어요”

•   한국(P1): 누리호가 싣고 간 큐브위성, 첫 번째 '사출' 성공

•   한국: 인터넷이 바꾼 세상, AI는 더 바꾼다… 초거대 AI 개발전쟁 스타트

•   국민: 꺼도 꺼도 타는 전기차 화재… 친환경차 전환 발목 잡나

•   머니투데이(P1): "M&A 문턱 확 낮춘다"...공정위, 기업결합 개선TF 구성

•   헤럴드경제: 증권사 비관 전망에 기관들 더 판다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 소형 트럭도 전기차가 대세… 지자체 56% 보조금 동났다

•   디지털타임스(P1): [기획] "내각제로 바꿔야 대한민국 재도약"

•   디지털타임스: 10만개 기업 대상 납품단가 조정 현황 조사

•   디지털타임스: 휘발유 유류세 인하액 182원 중 69원만 반영

•   디지털타임스: 애플, 한국앱 제3자 결제 허용했지만… 26% 수수료 논란 불보듯

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 8984명 확진…1주 전보다 2천여명 많아

•   연합: 12대 수출 주력업종 대기업 "하반기 수출 0.5% 증가에 그칠 것"

•   연합: 작년 그룹 총수 경영성적표…이재용 부회장, 매출 등 4개 항목 1위

•   전자신문: [3나노 GAA 시대]핀펫 시대 종언…트랜지스터 패러다임 바꿨다

•   전자신문: [3나노 GAA 시대]TSMC 인텔 후발주자 추격 따돌려야

•   전자신문: [3나노 GAA시대]설계부터 소부장까지 '생태계' 바뀐다

•   전자신문: [3나노 GAA 시대]삼성, '와이어' 뛰어 넘고 '시트' 택했다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Carl Bildt): Europe’s Fate and Ukraine’s Survival

•   Project Syndicate(Mark Leonard): The European War Project

•   FT(Gillian Tett): Business leaders need to speak up for democracy

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): China stocks bounce

•   FT(Richard Waters): US still lagging in delivering on chip ambitions

•   FT(Simon Kuper): Why the Tories don’t care about the future

•   FT(Kirill Rogov): Putin’s rupture with the west turns Russia towards China

•   FT(Lex): China coal: fat margins for producers as green energy movement goes on pause

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Biden’s Raid on the Permian Basin

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Democrats for Trumpians

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): NATO Gets a Military Upgrade With Finland and Sweden

•   WSJ(Arthur Laffer, Stephen Moore): Economic Growth, Not Austerity, Is the Answer to Inflation

•   WSJ(Karl Rove): The Trump 2024 Test Runs

•   WSJ(Joseph C. Sternberg): The G-7’s Economic Fantasy Summit

•   WSJ(Elisabeth Braw): Why Does China Own So Much of Ukraine?

•   WP(Editorial Board): Biden’s answer to Russia is a new, improved NATO

•   WP(Henry Olsen): NATO’s summit shows the alliance is strong. But it must be much stronger.

•   WP(Josh Rogin): How a thaw with Turkey could help Ukraine win the war

•   WP(Katja Hoyer): Putin is forcing Germans to get real about the military

•   Bloomberg(Mihir Sharma): Modi's Attempt to Reform Indian Army Backfires for Lack of Jobs

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Markets See a Pyrrhic Inflation Victory as Growth Fears Dominate

•   Bloomberg(Chris Bryant): Labor Strikes in UK, US: Workers Unite Against Inflation, Cost-of-Living Crisis

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Bernstein): Joe Biden's Approval Rating Plumbs New Depths

•   Bloomberg(Andreas Kluth): NATO: Turkey's Nod to Finland and Sweden Create a Baltic Lake to Buttress East

•   Bloomberg(Gearoid Reidy): There Is No ‘Back to Normal’ After Covid

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Small Businesses Are Flashing a Recession Warning Signal

•   Reuters(John Kemp): Global business cycle starts to turn down

•   Reuters(Jamie McGeever): Fed's inflation target ambiguity risks market misstep