Global Economic Monitor 220610

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks, euro slip as ECB set to join rate hike club

※   Europe gets signal of first ECB rate rise in a decade

※   Yen stuck at 20-year low against dollar

※   China shares stumble on Shanghai’s new COVID-19 curbs

•   Japan: Yen moves toward 24-year low against dollar

•   Natural gas: European gas prices surge after fire at Texas LNG plant

•   Metals: Copper drops as partial lockdowns return in China

•   Grains: US soy hits highest since Sept 2012; corn also firm

•   한국: '네 마녀의 날' 코스피 등락 끝 0.03% 하락 마감…2,620대

[Indicators]

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: U.S. Jobless Claims Rise to Highest Level in Last Five Months

•   Eurozone Benchmark rate: ECB takes hawkish turn to counter record-high inflation

※   Bank paves way for first increases in more than a decade, suggests pace could quicken in September

※   ECB: Monetary policy decisions

※   FT: Eurozone cheap money era comes to an end

•   China May Balance of trade: China’s Exports Rebound as Threat of Broader Slowdown Looms

※   Exports rise to $308 billion, the most since January

•   China May Car sales: China’s Car Sales Begin to Rebound as Government Revs Up Subsidies

•   India May Employment: India's unemployment rate drops for second consecutive month in May: CMIE

•   Brazil May CPI: Brazil 12-Month Inflation Slowed to 11.73% in May

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): 서울 강남구 아파트값 12주만에 상승세 멈춰

[News]

•   WSJ: U.S., European Allies Try to Restrain Global Oil Prices

※   Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says talks aim to limit Moscow’s energy revenue and keep Russia’s supplies flowing to prevent a recession

•   WSJ: As Gas Prices Near $5 a Gallon, Record Fuel Costs Upend Businesses, U.S. Economy

•   WSJ: IRS Raises Mileage Rates as Gas Prices Increase

•   WSJ: Ukraine War, Higher Interest Rates Prompt Businesses to Dial Back Overseas Investment

※   UNCTAD: World Investment Report 2022

•   WSJ: EU Wheat Harvest Is Under Threat, Further Straining Global Supplies Stressed by Ukraine

•   WSJ: Chip Shortage Threatens Cutting-Edge Tech Needed for Next-Generation Smartphones

•   WSJ: U.S. Prepares to Distribute Covid-19 Shots to Children Under 5

•   WSJ: Iran’s Actions Could Be Fatal Blow to Reviving Nuclear Deal, Says IAEA Chief

•   WSJ: Shanghai Orders Over Half Its Residents to Undergo Covid Testing as Resurgence Fears Rise

•   WSJ: China’s Mass Covid Testing to Test Country’s Finances, Too

•   WSJ: Tesla Faces Upgraded U.S. Probe Into Autopilot in Emergency-Scene Crashes

•   WSJ: How a D.C. Bureaucrat Amassed Power Over Businesses, Banks and Consumers

•   WSJ: From Walmart to Gap, Which Retailers Have the Most Excess Inventory?

•   WSJ: Car Makers Ask for Time as EU Ban on Conventional Engines Progresses

•   WSJ: Which Companies Can Raise Prices Without Angering Customers?

•   WSJ: A Deep Divide on Automation Hangs Over West Coast Port Labor Talks

•   WSJ: Big Tech Has Spent $36 Million on Ads to Torpedo Antitrust Bill

•   WSJ: Car-Share Market Wants to Drive Itself

•   NYT: Biden Administration to Set Rules of the Road for Charging Electric Vehicles

•   NYT: Chinese Pilots Sent a Message. American Allies Said They Went Too Far.

•   NYT: The Billionaires Behind a Push to Reinvigorate U.S. Chip-Making

•   WP: Why a 1970s-style ‘stagflation’ crisis would hit the world’s poor hard

•   WP: WHO covid origins report says ‘lab leak’ theory needs further investigation

•   WP: Swirling doubts herald major shifts at upcoming Chinese political meeting

•   WP: Anatomy of a risk rebound

•   FT: US energy envoy asks India to restrain Russian oil purchases

•   FT: Investors are anticipating too much tightening from the ECB, says BlackRock

•   FT: Hungary’s Orbán loses friends in Poland over stance on Russia sanctions

•   FT: UK set for highest inflation among G7 until 2024, say economists

•   FT: Why maximalist Northern Ireland demands won’t work

•   FT: Johnson faces Eurosceptic revolt over Northern Ireland protocol bill

•   FT: China’s reopening already faces challenges

•   FT: Lula would scrap Brazil’s public spending cap, says draft manifesto

•   FT: Canada’s oil sands: why some of the world’s dirtiest fuel is now in hot demand

•   FT: Supply chain stability and greener ride hailing

•   Bloomberg: Ukraine Likely to Win Initial EU Backing for Path to Membership

•   Bloomberg: Why Inflation Is Hitting American Households Like Never Before

•   Bloomberg: El-Erian Warns Inflation Has Yet to Peak as Energy Prices Rise

•   Bloomberg: Janet Yellen Rejects Idea Corporate Greed Is to Blame for Inflation

•   Bloomberg: Draghi’s ECB Consigned to History as Hawks Seize Policy Controls

•   Bloomberg: Lagarde’s Communication Is Muddled, Ex-ECB Chief Economist Says

•   Bloomberg: Bank of Russia Rode Ruble’s Rally When War Left Few Options

•   Bloomberg: Strikes and Labor Shortages Leave European Airports in Chaos

•   Bloomberg: UK Economic Growth Is Grinding to a Standstill, BCC Warns

•   Bloomberg: UK Housing Market Flashes Sign of Cooling as Buyer Demand Drops

•   Bloomberg: Renewable Power Still in the Crosshairs of UK Windfall Tax

•   Bloomberg: China’s Xi Urges Efforts to Balance Covid Zero with the Economy

•   Bloomberg: China’s Xi Hears Efforts to Boost Grain Output Amid Food Worries

•   Bloomberg: China Lashes Out at Key Taiwan Ally Over US-Friendly Remarks

•   Bloomberg: Hong Kong’s Covid Cases Top 600 as Sub-Variant Infections Flare

•   Bloomberg: China Ties at ‘Lowest Moment’ Since 1972, US Ambassador Says

•   Bloomberg: China’s Appetite for Commodities Sapped by Virus, Surging Prices

•   Bloomberg: Beijing Cases Hover Near Lows as Regional Outbreaks in Focus

•   Bloomberg: Japan’s Leader Ramps Up Drive to Counter China in Southeast Asia

•   Bloomberg: Yen’s Slump Reaches Levels That Put Asia’s Rebound in Danger

•   Bloomberg: BOJ to Stand Pat Unless Yen Breaches 140, Polled Economists Say

•   Bloomberg: India’s Covid Cases Almost Double in a Week to Three Month High

•   Bloomberg: India Seen as Thwarting G-7 Push to Avert Global Food Crisis

•   Bloomberg: Bolsonaro’s Plan to Curb Inflation Reaches Brazil Congress

•   Bloomberg: Brazil Local Markets Haunted Yet Again by Fiscal, Election Risks

•   Bloomberg: Turkey’s Erdogan Declares His Bid for President in 2023 Election

•   Bloomberg: Fire at Key US Gas Export Terminal Hurts Fuel-Starved Europe

•   Bloomberg: Fuel Demand Destruction Is Happening at Most Expensive US Spots

•   Bloomberg: China Weighs Reviving Jack Ma’s Ant IPO as Crackdown Eases

•   Bloomberg: Renewable Power Still in the Crosshairs of UK Windfall Tax

•   Bloomberg: Tesla’s China Production Roars Back With Output Tripling

•   Bloomberg: Meta Halts Development of Apple Watch Rival With Two Cameras

•   Bloomberg: TSMC’s $100 Billion Wipeout Fails to Faze Bullish Analysts

•   Bloomberg: Foxconn Has a Plan to Upend the Electric Vehicle Industry

•   Bloomberg: Flawed Renewable Energy Credits Are Derailing Climate Efforts

•   Bloomberg: Plastic-Eating ‘Superworms’ Could Fight World's Garbage Crisis

•   Bloomberg: Google AI Predicts Gusts at Wind Farms 36 Hours in Advance

•   Reuters: IMF expects further cut in global growth outlook

※   The International Monetary Fund expects to further cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 next month, an IMF spokesperson said on Thursday

•   Reuters: U.S. and China likely to trade blows at Asian security meeting

•   Reuters: Russia's energy revenue higher now than just before Ukraine war, U.S. official says

•   Reuters: U.S. official sees moderation in goods and services inflation in months ahead

•   Reuters: How a battery shortage is hampering the U.S. switch to wind, solar power

•   Reuters: UN's ILO recommends China mission on Xinjiang labour practices - sources

•   Reuters: Iran expects confiscated oil cargo to be returned in full - envoy

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Global investors write to U.N. to urge global plan on farming emissions

•   Reuters: China's smartphone makers chip away at Samsung, Apple's Russian market share

•   CNN: An electric car finally makes financial sense

•   CNBC: The recession will hit in the first half of 2023 and the Dow is headed lower: CNBC CFO survey

•   CNBC: Bringing inflation down is going to take time, patience — and pain

•   CNBC: The Quad’s new maritime initiative has potential to spur militarization of the Indo-Pacific

•   CNBC: John Kerry says clean energy transition is the largest market the world has ever seen

•   CNBC: Consumer price inflation in May expected to run sizzling hot as energy, food and rent rose

•   CNBC: Goodbye gasoline cars? EU lawmakers vote to ban new sales from 2035

•   CNBC: Amazon will let you try on digital versions of shoes you want to buy

•   CNBC: Here’s how much Apple’s supply chain depends on Shanghai

•   MarketWatch: Strong dollar could spark repeat of 1990s ‘Asian Crisis’ if it crosses this threshold, former Goldman economist warns

•   MarketWatch: AMD focuses on AI after data-center success, sees annual revenue growth of 20%

•   SCMP: Inflation isn’t China’s problem, income is: ‘all we can do is spend less’

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: China moves to calm foreign investors after ‘unprecedented’ shock of Shanghai lockdown

•   SCMP: China digital currency: e-CNY ‘well positioned’ but still ‘a way to go’ to challenge US dollar dominance

•   SCMP: Inflation isn’t China’s problem, income is: ‘all we can do is spend less’

•   SCMP: Explainer | How much is China’s foreign direct investment and is it still a good destination for overseas investors?

•   SCMP: China-Germany economic ties shift with Xinjiang allegations, zero Covid and supply chain issues

•   Caixin: In Depth: China’s Never-Ending Coal Price Woes

•   Nikkei Asia: As tourists return, Japan looks to open doors even more

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan still stuck in negative yields as ECB joins rate hike revival

•   Economic Times: Current account deficit likely to hit three-year high at $43.8 billion in FY22

•   Economic Times: Fuel tax cut helps cool worsening price expectations

•   매경(P1): 韓 "반도체, 수도권·지방대 골고루 증원"

•   매경: 尹대통령 이어 총리도 반도체 강조…교육부 변화 있으려나

•   매경: [단독] 이재용·이영 의기투합…'반도체 설계' 키운다

•   매경: 韓 인적자원 경쟁력 OECD 하위권…전경련 "38국중 24위 그쳐"

•   매경(P1): 기후위기 대응 '부산 해상도시' 2030년 띄운다

•   매경: 날개잃은 원화값…금융위기 이후 가장 빠르게 하락

※   한국은행: 「통화신용정책보고서」(2022년 6월)

•   매경: "최저임금 30% 올려라" 고물가 핑계로 월급 올려달라는 노동계

•   매경: 경제전문가 90% "韓금융산업 경쟁력 여전히 낮아"

•   매경: 이복현의 금감원 '부동산 금융'부터 손본다

•   매경: SK하이닉스, 엔비디아에 최고성능 D램 공급

•   매경: [단독] (주)두산, 가정용 수소연료전지 사업 매각 추진

•   매경: 청약 경쟁률도 작년 반토막…비규제 많은 지방은 선방

•   매경: "엔화 바겐세일 기간"…'엔테크'가 뜬다

•   한경(P1): "반도체 물류까지 막겠다"…파업수위 높인 화물연대

•   한경: "운임 2배 올려달라"…레미콘 차주도 '화물연대 판박이' 파업

•   한경: 민주당, 화물연대와 간담회…"일몰제 폐지 추진하겠다"

•   한경: 안전운임제 보고서' 4개월 동안 쉬쉬한 국토부

•   한경: "군용차량이라도 투입해달라"

•   한경(P1): [단독] "한국, 절대로 원전 폐쇄해선 안돼"…IEA 사무총장의 충고

•   한경: "오일쇼크보다 심각한 위기…유럽, 에너지 배급제 검토"

•   한경: "韓美 원전동맹 올라타자"…SK·두산 등 '소형원자로' 박차

•   한경(P1): "새 정부, 보모국가서 벗어나라"…역대 기재부 장관 5명 고언

•   한경(P1): 한·일 항로 17년간 운임담합…800억 '과징금 폭탄' 맞는다

•   한경: [단독] 맥도날드까지 매물로…한꺼번에 'M&A 식탁' 오른 햄버거 빅4

•   한경: 尹정부 '식량주권' 1호 정책…가루용 쌀 늘려 밀 200만t 대체

•   한경: "경기 회복세 약화"…더 어두워진 KDI 진단

※   KDI: KDI 경제동향 2022. 6

•   한경: 113개 '유턴기업 생존율' 꽁꽁 숨기는 정부

•   한경: "지금이 벤처 겨울?…불황이 기회 될 수도"

•   한경: 가계대출 수요 줄자…가산금리도 하락세

•   한경: 위기감 느낀 삼성 절치부심…'갤럭시S'의 숨겨진 탄생 비화

•   한경: "IPO 걸림돌 될라"…구주매출 없애는 기업들

•   서경(P1): 매달 장외투쟁…尹정부 흔드는 勞

•   서경: 정권 초 노동현안 쓰나미…삐걱대면 '국정이슈' 모조리 삼킨다

•   서경: 한진重 시신 농성…택시노조는 분신도

•   서경: 中企 임금, 대기업 반토막 수준인데…그들만의 철옹성

•   서경(P1): [단독] 與 ‘1기 신도시 특별법’ 부산·인천 등 지방까지 확대한다

•   서경: [단독] 2·3기 신도시+지방 노후도시, 용적률 300~400%로 높여 재정비

•   서경: 규제완화 기대감에 재건축만 팔린다…노원·도봉 '30년 아파트' 거래 활발

•   서경: AI로 선박 1500척 실시간 파악…삼성의 '물류 심장'

•   서경: 잦아진 모임·회식…리오프닝에 웃음 되찾는 외식업

•   서경: SK에코플랜트 올 연료전지 수주 작년치 넘어

•   서경: 다시 열리는 국제행사…관광산업 숨통 트인다

•   서경: "중국은 더이상 기회의 땅 아냐" 롯데·아모레 짐 싼다

•   조선: 다주택자 매물 쏟아지자, 잠실 4억·흑석 2억 ‘뚝 뚝’

•   조선: 평균 연봉 가장 높은 지역 서울 아니다

•   조선: “납품단가 연동제 빨리 입법을” vs “中企가 피해볼 수도”

•   조선: “해외비축 곡물 1150만톤, 여차하면 국내 들여오겠다”

•   조선: [WEEKLY BIZ] “대기업, 정치사회 이슈서 손떼라”

•   조선: 아주 비싸거나 아주 싼 것만 잘 팔린다

•   조선비즈: “회사채보다 대출 금리가 낮아요”… 은행 찾는 대기업들

•   조선비즈: 尹대통령 “반도체 강국” 외치는데…‘밥그릇 싸움’에 반도체 특별법 산으로

•   조선비즈: “물가 상승 공사비에 어떻게 반영해야 하나”… 조합-시공자 ‘동상이몽’

•   조선비즈: 삼성페이로 차·집 문 연다…“항공 탑승권도 추가”

•   조선비즈: [통신사 5G 부당이득 3兆]⑦ 4인 가구 통신비 매달 21만원… 인플레 공포에 ‘통신비 인하’ 요구 거세

•   조선비즈: NFT 시장 거품 빠진다는데 관련주는 급등…서울옥션은 한 달 새 20% 넘게 올랐다

•   중앙(P1): “평택까지 못가” “교수도 못구해”…현장서 나온 ‘반도체 인력난’

•   중앙: 햇반서 외식으로, 소비패턴 U턴…이제 상품 대신 서비스에 돈 쓴다

•   중앙: [단독]가스공사 수요 예측 실패…한전 '최악의 적자' 불렀다

•   중앙: 금리인상기엔 방망이 짧게…단기예금 1년새 211조 늘어

•   동아(P1): RFA “北, 개성공단 무단 가동” 통일부 “재산침해 용납 못해”

•   동아: 日 반도체 장비 잇단 투자… 한일 주도권 싸움

•   문화(P1): “1000兆 투자, 우리 지역으로”… 非수도권 단체장, 기업유치戰

•   국민(P1): [단독] “범죄사실 무관 자료 수집”… 삼성전자 ‘압수수색’ 준항고

•   세계(P1): 北 노동당 전원회의… ‘핵실험 결정’ 주목

•   머니투데이(P1): "940조 원전시장 잡자" 한미 원전동맹 첫발…주도권 누가?

•   머니투데이(P1): 베테랑 운전자도 힘든 이곳을?…'자율주행택시' 강남 달린다

•   머니투데이: "올 여름부터 전력 공급"…신한울1호기 계통연결 성공

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 코로나 19 예방주사 ‘이부실드’ 2만회분 도입…“재유행 막는다”

•   헤럴드경제: 5월 임대차계약 10건 중 6건은 ‘월세’

•   헤럴드경제: ‘똘똘한 한채’만 잘나갔다…KB선도아파트50지수 석달째 오름폭 확대

•   아시아경제(P1): 脫중국 공급망 새판짜기…폭풍 속으로[한중 공급망 진단]

•   아시아경제: 韓 반도체에 의존하는 中…경제보복 막는 '방패'[한중 공급망 진단]

•   아시아경제: 中 공급망 균열 시 석화·철강 기업도 부담[한중 공급망 진단]

•   아시아경제: 中 의존도 90% 넘는 배터리…경제보복시 바이오도 사정권[한중 공급망 진단]

•   아시아경제: 중국, 韓디스플레이 수입 막으면 '제 발등 찍기'[한중 공급망 진단]

•   아시아경제: "美 이익 반하면 반도체도, 배터리도 없다"[한중 공급망 진단-좌담회]

•   아시아경제: 中보다 큰 시장 열린다…이제 세계의 공장은 '인태'[한중 공급망 진단]

•   아시아경제(P1): 추경호 부총리 "기업 규제 과감히 철폐…이달중 혁신 TF 출범"

•   이데일리(P1): 내·외치 성과에도 대내외 경제상황 ‘발등의 불’[尹 취임 한달]①

•   이데일리: 기대와 우려 속 연착륙…‘협치·북핵·물가’ 3대 난제[尹 취임 한달]②

•   이데일리: 尹정부 검증 부실에 인사잡음…검찰편향 인사 우려도[尹 취임 한달]③

•   이데일리(P1): 돈줄 말라가는 벤처캐피털…제2 벤처붐 끝나나

•   이데일리: “청년 직장인 4명 중 3명은 첫 일자리 유지 안 한다”

•   이데일리: 저축은행 '마통' 한도 줄인다…‘대출 보릿고개’ 오나

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 8913명 확진…목요일 동시간대 20주만에 1만명 밑

•   연합: 소비자물가 조사대상 5개 품목 중 1개꼴로 두자릿수 상승률

•   연합: 국내 휘발유·경유 가격 2천40원 돌파…연초대비 26%, 42%↑

•   KBS: [단독] “이재용 위법 취업 아니다”…재벌 3·4세 ‘복귀의 법칙’

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]"근무형태가 경쟁력"...플랫폼 업계, 新 근무제 띄운다

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]유통가에 번지는 근무제 변화…"시간·장소 자유롭게"

•   전자신문: 정부, SMP 상한제 보상 근거 적시 안 해…업계 "다툼 발생 소지"

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Willem H. Buiter, Anne C. Sibert): Central Banks Are Still Far Behind the Inflation Curve

•   Project Syndicate(Shashi Tharoor): The Promise and Pitfalls of Indian Foreign Policy

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): Why ending energy imports from Russia remains essential

•   FT(Richard Waters): Big Tech tiptoes to the metaverse

•   FT(Oliver Roeder): The global race for supercomputing power

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Angela Merkel’s Limited Regrets

•   WSJ(Wayne Stoltenberg, Merrill Matthews): Why Energy Companies Won’t Produce

•   WSJ(Arthur Herman): Sweden and Finland Will Help NATO Counter Russia in the Arctic

•   WSJ(Paul M. Dabbar): How the U.S. Turned the Tables on OPEC

•   WSJ(Vivek Ramaswamy, Riley Moore): The Market Can Curtail Woke Fund Managers

•   WSJ(Paul M. Dabbar): How the U.S. Turned the Tables on OPEC

•   NYT(Anastasia Edel): The Door Between Russia and America Is Slamming Shut

•   WP(David Ignatius): Putin’s Ukraine war draws on his vision of nationalism, exceptionalism

•   WP(Dana Milbank): As climate catastrophes multiply, Republicans rethink denialism

•   Bloomberg(Clive Crook): Have a Little Sympathy for the Federal Reserve

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Watch for Waves From Europe's Evolving Inflation Shock

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): ECB Delay Presages Bigger Rate Increases in Coming Months

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): China’s Big Problem That Xi Jinping Can’t Solve

•   Bloomberg(Anjani Trivedi): That Chevy Feels A Lot Better Than a Tesla Right Now

•   Bloomberg(Hal Brands): A Long War in Ukraine Could Bring Global Chaos

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Don’t Be Fooled by Conflicting Inflation Metrics. The Fed Won’t.

•   CNN(Mark Zandi): Inflation is painfully high, but it should ease soon

•   MarketWatch(Vitaliy Katsenelson): Inflation is making everything we buy more expensive, and once stagflation hits things could get even worse

•   Fox News(Scott Peters): New Democrats will 'get stuff done' on inflation

•   Fox News(Carl Pope): Gas price records mean OPEC has to be cut down to size