Global Economic Monitor 220614

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Inflation angst drags S&P 500 into bear market; bonds skid

•   Metals: Aluminium hits 6-month low as demand prospects deteriorate

•   Grains: Soybean, corn futures slide in broad sell-off

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Price Plunges Below $23,000 as Crypto Lender Celsius Halts Withdrawals

•   한국: 美물가 충격에 '검은 월요일'…코스피 3.52%·코스닥 4.72% 급락

※   매경: 코스피 2500 간신히 턱걸이…韓증시 시총 하루 89조 증발했다

•   한국: 원화값 1300원 붕괴 초읽기…"과도한 원화 변동성 경계를"

•   한국: 금리발작…국채3년물 금리 10년만에 3.5%돌파

[Indicators]

•   US May Consumer inflation expectations: Expectations for inflation and spending hit record levels in May, New York Fed survey shows

•   UK Apr. GDP: Sterling falls to 2-year low against dollar after UK economy contracts

•   Japan Q2 Business sentiment: Japan business sentiment negative in April-June on high oil prices

•   India May CPI: India’s May Inflation Stays Above 7% on Costlier Food, Fuel

•   한국 5월 투자자예탁금: 증시서 발빼는 동학개미…예탁금 19개월만에 '최저'

•   한국 6월 1~10일 수출: 6월 1∼10일 수출 12.7%↓ '공휴일 영향'…무역적자 60억달러

[News]

•   WSJ: Fed Likely to Consider 0.75-Percentage-Point Rate Rise This Week

※   Officials had signaled plans to raise interest rates in half-point increments before recent deterioration in data

•   WSJ: How the Fed and the Biden Administration Got Inflation Wrong

•   WSJ: Higher Unemployment Rate Looms as the Fed Fights Inflation

•   WSJ: Lawmakers Make Bipartisan Push for New Government Powers to Block U.S. Investments in China

※   Draft measure in Congress intends to limit U.S. involvement in China’s technology sector, rebuild supply chains

•   WSJ: Ukraine Fears Defeat in East Without Surge in Military Aid

•   WSJ: Russian Forces Expand Control of Strategic City Severodonetsk

•   WSJ: With Billions Going to Ukraine, Officials Warn of Potential for Fraud, Waste

•   WSJ: U.S. Proposes Higher Standards for Home Gas Furnaces

•   WSJ: Some European Factories, Long Dependent on Cheap Russian Energy, Are Shutting Down

•   WSJ: Liquefied Natural Gas Prices Will Steam Up Again

•   WSJ: Warehousing Giants Are Consolidating in a Shifting Real-Estate Market

•   WSJ: France’s Total Joins Qatar as First Foreign Partner in $30 Billion LNG Project

•   WSJ: Oracle Sales Top Expectations Against Uncertain Economic Backdrop

•   WSJ: Microsoft Agrees to Make It Easier for Activision Employees to Unionize

•   WSJ: Covid-19 Variant Shot From Sanofi, GSK Shows Strong Response to Omicron in Studies

•   WSJ: CEOs of GM, Toyota, Ford, Stellantis Renew Push to Expand EV Tax Credit

•   WSJ: Amazon to Make Deliveries by Drone in California Later This Year

•   WSJ: Old Electric-Vehicle Batteries Are Getting a Second Life

•   NYT: Biden Plan for EV Chargers on Highways Meets Skepticism in Rural West

•   NYT: The Pandemic’s Next Phase

•   NYT: As China Rattles Sabers, Taiwan Asks: Are We Ready for War?

•   NYT: Russia’s Oil Revenue Soars Despite Sanctions, Study Finds

•   NYT: India’s Economy Is Growing Quickly. Why Can’t It Produce Enough Jobs?

•   NYT: What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears

•   NYT: How to invest during a bear market.

•   NYT: Can Carbon Capture Be Part of the Climate Solution?

•   WP: Covid is making flu and other common viruses act in unfamiliar ways

•   FT: Nato chief says he had ‘no reason to believe’ Turkey would block Nordic membership

•   FT: Crunch time for Ukraine’s EU candidate status

•   FT: UK poised to agree deal to keep coal-fired power station open over winter

•   FT: Johnson pushes ahead with UK law to rip up N Ireland protocol

•   FT: What does Northern Ireland protocol bill do and why is it contentious?

•   FT: Trump advisers told him repeatedly election was lost, says January 6 committee

•   FT: China vows to ‘crush’ any attempt by Taiwan to pursue independence

•   FT: Crisis over cameras threatens to scupper Iran nuclear talks

•   FT: US unions accuse hedge funds of claiming ‘false’ alliance in battle against SEC rules

•   FT: UK still fighting to secure UK listing of Arm Holdings, says tech minister

•   FT: Campaigners urge Asia to move faster on climate change

•   FT: Japan’s heavy industry looks to a greener future

•   FT: China ramps up coal power to boost post-lockdown growth

•   FT: India’s tech sector switches on to renewable electricity

•   Bloomberg: How the ‘Energy Shock’ Has Upended the Global Economy

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Kazimir ‘Clearly’ Sees Need for Half-Point September Hike

•   Bloomberg: Germany Targets Crackdown on Fuel Gouging After Tax Cut Fizzles

•   Bloomberg: ECB Resolved to Face Down Bond Stress Without Divulging Plan

•   Bloomberg: China’s Chipmaking Power Grows Despite US Effort to Counter It

•   Bloomberg: China’s Claims on Taiwan Strait Could Raise Tensions With US

•   Bloomberg: China Hits Back at Call for UN Labor Body to Visit Xinjiang

•   Bloomberg: Support for Jokowi Rises as Indonesians Turn Upbeat Over Economy

•   Bloomberg: Kuroda Slammed by Majority as Unfit for BOJ Governor in Poll

•   Bloomberg: Influencer-Approved Bull Market Sputters to End on Hawkish Fed

•   Bloomberg: Japan Starting to Crack as Yen Tumbles With Stocks and Bonds

•   Bloomberg: ECB Is Resolved to Face Down Bond Stress Without Divulging Plans

•   Bloomberg: There’s Something Different About This Bitcoin Drawdown

•   Bloomberg: Russia's Crude Flows to Asia Take Hold Near Unprecedented Levels

•   Bloomberg: More Commodity Inflation Beckons as War Boosts Coal: Bloomberg Survey

•   Bloomberg: Copper’s Outlook Under Threat as Economic Risks Pile Up

•   Bloomberg: PlayStation Takes On Xbox With New Subscription Service

•   Bloomberg: Shippers With Pollution-Curbing Equipment See Huge Fuel Savings

•   Bloomberg: Net Carbon Zero Plans By Companies Are Weak And Vague, Report Says

•   Reuters: BoE's Bailey: latest crypto turmoil reinforces concerns

•   Reuters: EU agency sees risk of COVID deaths rising as Omicron subvariants spread

•   Reuters: Beijing tests millions, isolates thousands over COVID cluster at 24-hour bar

•   Reuters: China unveils steps to ease fiscal strains on local governments

•   Reuters: Indian opposition leader Rahul Gandhi questioned in money-laundering probe

•   Reuters: Gas pipeline Nord Stream 1 to undergo annual summer maintenance

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Google offers to let ad rivals place YouTube ads in EU antitrust probe - sources

•   Reuters: Explainer: U.S. yield curve inverts again: What is it telling us?

•   Reuters: Analysis: Race for Japan's top central-bank job to intensify

•   CNBC: Europe’s fear gauge just hit its highest level since May 2020

•   Hill: Why Biden’s bet on a rapid economic rebound may have backfired

•   SCMP: China economy: with more US tightening on the horizon, could this be Beijing’s last chance to cut rates in 2022?

•   SCMP: China GDP: nearly 11 billion Covid tests seen giving economy a US$26 billion boost in second quarter

•   SCMP: China and Pakistan, jolted by Karachi attack that killed Chinese, vow stronger military and security ties

•   SCMP: Two top US and China officials meet for a third time this year to ‘reduce risks’

•   SCMP: China’s struggling private firms tasked with lifting nation of out economic doldrums

•   SCMP: China develops AI that ‘can use deception to hunt satellites’

•   Global Times: V-shaped rebound expected within Q2 as China fires policy salvos to stabilize growth

•   Global Times: Exclusive: Report reveals how US spy agencies stole 97b global internet data, 124b phone records in just 30 days

•   Nikkei Asia: Weak yen turns from boon to bane for Japanese stocks

•   Nikkei Asia: Inflation becomes a headache for Japan's upper house candidates

•   매경(P1): "지속된 적자 없더라도 선제적 정리해고 가능"

•   매경: 정리해고 요건 넓게 해석…위기기업 회생길 열려

•   매경(P1): 가상화폐도 비상…이더리움 파생상품 출금 중단

•   매경: 엎친 데 덮친 물가…외환위기 이후 최고 6%대 상승 우려에 공공요금 치솟아

•   매경: "참이슬 카스 구해주세요"…자영업자도 떨고 있다

•   매경: 中, 세계 해상풍력시장 장악…작년 신규 발전량 80% 차지

•   매경: 공정위 조사 결론까지 547일…5년새 두배로

•   매경: 반도체 투자 세액공제…대기업도 3배로 확대

•   매경: 전력도매가 상한제…이르면 8월께 시행

•   매경: 선박연료 탄소세 추진에 선사들 비상…IMO 온실가스 부담금 검토

•   매경: 美·中시장 개척…현대차 의존 줄이는 부품사

•   매경: HMM, 국내 해운사 첫 온라인 예약 플랫폼

•   매경: 삼성전자, 내주 글로벌회의…하반기 사업전략 집중 논의

•   매경: 상의 "법인세 최고세율 21.5%로"

•   매경: 올들어 16% 뚝…아시아서 가장 약한 코스피

•   매경: 새 아파트 찾아 강남 간다…강남4구 신축 40%, 노도강은 5%뿐

•   매경: "대출금리 7% 되면 월급 70% 나갈판"…'영끌' 김대리 한숨

•   매경: '가장 뜨거운 봄'…제트기류의 심술, 이제 서막일 뿐 [Science]

•   매경: 상상도 못할 재난 닥친다…기후변화 4대지표 모두 최악 [Science]

•   한경(P1): 화물연대 파업 6일간 1.6조 피해

•   한경: 쟁점 국회로 떠넘기고 봉합하려다…'안전운임' 협상 더 꼬이게한 정부

•   한경: 포스코 가동중단…"출하 막혀 제품 쌓아둘 곳도 없다"

•   한경(P1): '적자 늪'에 빠진 코레일·한전…직원 3분의 1, 문재인 정부때 채용

•   한경: "일자리 늘려라" 문재인 정부 한마디에…한전에서 벌어진 일

•   한경: "지역인재 무조건 30% 이상 뽑아라"…커지는 수도권 졸업자 역차별 논란

•   한경: "전문성 부족한 '낙하산' 인사로 방만경영 심화"

•   한경: 10억 투자했는데 6개월 만에…동학개미 '악' 소리 난다

•   한경: '게임체인저' 최초 양산…LG엔솔, 배터리전쟁 승기 잡았다

•   한경: 금리인상기 '단기예금'에 뭉칫돈…6개월 미만 상품 1년새 43조↑

•   한경: 조선주, 뱃고동 잦아드나…"하반기 실적 부진할 수도"

•   한경: 한 달 만에 3억 '뚝'…잠실 아파트에 무슨 일이?

•   서경(P1): 금산분리 등 규제 완화 착수

•   서경(P1): [알립니다] 서울포럼 2022-대한민국 신성장전략:담대한 도전-우주에서 길을 찾다

•   서경: 3단 로켓 700㎞ 궤도 진입후…35㎞내 오차범위 안착땐 성공 [재도전 준비 마친 누리호]

•   서경: [재도전 준비 마친 누리호] 기술적 점검 끝…비·바람이 최종 변수

•   서경: 14일 오전 '조립동 → 발사대' 이동 여부 최종 결정 [재도전 준비 마친 누리호]

•   서경: "일몰제 연장엔 이견 없다"면서도 …與 "제도정착엔 검토 필요"

•   서경: 이 와중에…우체국 택배 노조도 18일 파업 예고

•   서경: "車가 어떻게 사치품이냐"…45년째 개소세 물리는 정부

•   서경: 8년째 600弗 묶인 면세한도…관광 경쟁력 떨어뜨리는 '허들'로

•   서경: 정부, 10번째 신용카드 소득공제 연장 검토

•   서경: [단독] 예산권도 노리나…예결위 상시화 법안 꺼낸 巨野

•   서경: 현대모비스, 車반도체 속도…사업관리실 신설·전력분야 분리

•   서경: 삼성·LG, 올레드 TV 협상 중단

•   서경: [단독] 스마트폰 대신 태블릿…LG전자, 3년 만에 신제품 내놓는다

•   서경: 이제 카카오 T로 국제선 비행기표도 예약

•   조선: 반도체에 인재 뺏기고 첨단산업法서 빠지고 속타는 디스플레이

•   조선: 80년대 실세 ‘물가정책국’ 부활시켜야 하나… 기재부의 고민

•   조선: 30세 직원이 채용 면접… MZ고객 잡으려 MZ직원 키운다

•   조선비즈: 기재부 “SOC·R&D 사업 예타 기준금액 상향 조정 필요”

•   조선비즈: 카카오뱅크에도 中 자본이… 카카오에 드리워진 ‘차이나리스크’

•   조선비즈: “컴퓨터공학 복수전공 안하면 취업 못해요”... 구직 위해 코딩 배우는 인문계생들

•   조선비즈: “수요 느는데 공급은 부족”… 몸값 높아진 물류센터

•   조선비즈: [통신사 5G 부당이득 3兆]⑧ 5G 중간요금제 도입, 7월서 8월로 연기… 한달 버티면 1600억 이익

•   인베스트조선: 시나리오만 무성한 반도체 M&A…'WHY'가 빠진 ARM 공동인수설

•   인베스트조선: 올라가는 회사채 금리에 정부기관·은행 찾는 대기업들

•   중앙(P1): '尹 스타일' 규제개혁 드라이브…'바텀업' 규제심판원 7월 목표

•   동아: G7 모두 작년 정부채무비율 줄였는데… 한국은 2.5%P 올라

•   동아: 금리 뛰자 무주택 전세가구 이자 23% 증가… 향후 부담 더 늘 듯

•   동아: 경총 “최저임금 업종별 구분 시행해야”

•   문화(P1): 野 시행령 수정요구 입법 추진에… 尹 “위헌 소지 많다”

•   한국(P1): 물가·환율·파업…총체적 난국에 尹 정부 '경제 드림팀' 속수무책

•   한국(P1): 청문회 안 거치고... 김창기 국세청장 임명한 尹대통령

•   한국: "다음은 AI 반도체다" 반도체 강국 향해 '포스트 반도체' 키우려면 [재도약 반도체 코리아]

•   국민(P1): “일당 50만원, 기사 급구” 피 마르는 車업계

•   국민: 인텔·퀄컴·SK “ARM 함께 인수하자”… 삼성전자 선택은?

•   경향: 전체 소득세 24% 늘었는데…자영업 소득 3% 줄어

•   경향: ‘밥상물가 내리자’ 식품·외식업계에 지원 요청한 정부

•   경향: 금리 계속 오를 텐데…신규 대출자 10명 중 8명은 ‘변동금리’

•   경향: 총수 일가 3·4세를 쫓아가 보자···그룹 ‘알짜’ 계열사가 보인다

•   머니투데이(P1): [단독]여당 'CEO 처벌감경' 추진…尹대통령 '친기업' 행보 지원

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 이재용, 獨서 BMW 회장과 '배터리 회동'

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 원가 버거워 값 올리자 손님 뚝…'2천원 국밥집' 사라질 위기 [물가급등, 우리가 피해자입니다]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 기본기 탄탄한 갤Z플립4… '주름 펴고' 돌아온다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 출퇴근 없애고 안식월까지… 스타트업 MZ 인재 영입 경쟁

•   디지털타임스: 원자재 가격 폭등… 건설업계 `한숨만`

•   이데일리: "현금보유vs저점매수"…인플레 공포에 개미 '패닉'

•   이데일리: `열정페이`·`월급루팡` 낳는 주52시간제…美·獨식 유연화가 답

•   이데일리: "인력난에 근로시간까지 묶이니"…52시간제에 가랑이 찢어지는 中企

•   이데일리: "점점 더 다양한 근무형태 필요…주52시간제 유연 적용해야"

•   이데일리: '상장 전부터 투자했는데'…IPO 시장 한파에 FI도 울상

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국에서 9155명 확진…어제의 2.5배로 늘어

•   연합: LCD 철수한 삼성디스플레이, 삼성 반도체로 300여명 전환배치

•   연합: 美中 고위급, 유럽서 '마라톤 회동'…北 핵실험 문제도 논의

•   전자신문(P1): 중고폰 거래 양성화…세금 깎아준다

•   전자신문(P1): 정부 충전사업자 25개 선정...신청업체 절반 이상 탈락

•   전자신문(P1): 당정, 가상자산 기본법 예고...공동협의체 구성

•   전자신문: PCB 업계, 올해도 역대급 실적 '예약'

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(William R. Rhodes, Stuart P.M. Mackintosh): Does the G20 Have a Future?

•   Project Syndicate(Dalia Marin): Putin’s War and the German Economic Model

•   Project Syndicate(Alexander Müller, Violet Shivutse, Jes Weigelt): The Right Way to Fight Global Hunger

•   FT(Editorial Board): The new Gulf oil boom poses dilemmas for the west

•   FT(Rana Foroohar): America must do more in the trade tug of war

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): Divisions in the west threaten Ukraine

•   FT(Mike Rogers): We need a Bretton Woods for the digital age

•   FT(Lex): Recession/defensive investing: the trend of the world is nigh

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): Indonesia Tunes Out the U.S.

•   WSJ(Gerard Baker): The Cost of Wishful Thinking on Inflation Is Going Up Too

•   WP(Editorial Board): The Federal Reserve should go big now to fight inflation

•   WP(Max Boot): We can’t let Ukraine lose. It needs a lot more aid, starting with artillery.

•   Bloomberg(Tyler Cowen): If AI Ever Becomes Sentient, It Will Let Us Know

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Markets Have Nowhere to Hide From This Terrible Inflation Report

•   Bloomberg(Liam Denning): The West’s Energy War Against Russia Demands Sacrifice

•   Bloomberg(Ramesh Ponnuru): Republicans' Strategy to Take Back the House Starts With Inflation

•   Bloomberg(Andreas Kluth): Europe Is Bigger Than the EU. So How Does Ukraine Integrate?

•   Bloomberg(Tim Culpan): China Tech Stocks Are Both a Buy and a Sell. You Decide

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): The Oil Price Shock Will Reverberate Into Next Year

•   Bloomberg(Richard Cookson): The ECB Is No Longer An Inflation-Targeting Central Bank

•   Bloomberg(Henry Huiyao Wang): To Save Global Trade, Start Small

•   CNN(Ann Bovino): 3 signs the labor market isn't as great as it looks

•   MarketWatch(Daniel Newman): As tech melts down, a truth remains: Semiconductors are eating the world

•   MarketWatch(Cam Hui): ‘Liquidation panic’ has taken over the stock, bond and crypto markets — and this may be the beginning of the end

•   Fox News(Rand Paul): Anger at Big Tech no excuse to abandon free marke

•   Fox News(Greg Pence): Summer of Bidenflation means hardship, high prices for Americans

•   Reuters(Andy Home): LME shadow stocks up in April but downtrend only paused