Global Economic Monitor 220603

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Global stock markets rise, U.S. yields fall ahead of employment data

※   Wall Street stocks close higher

※   Benchmark 10-year yields down

※   Brent crude prices up 1%

※   U.S. dollar eases

※   Safe-haven gold rises above 1%

•   Metals: Shanghai copper gains on demand hopes as China eases COVID curbs

•   Grains: Wheat firms after earlier slide; corn struggles to regain

•   한국: 코스피, 기관·외국인 매도세에 1% 하락…2,650선까지 밀려

[Indicators]

•   US Apr. Fatory orders: U.S. factory orders rise modestly in April

•   US May Home listings: US For-Sale Homes Rise in First Since 2019, Realtor.com Shows

•   US May Employment(ADP): US Companies Add Fewest Jobs of Pandemic Recovery, ADP Data Show

•   US May Car sales: Slump in New Car Sales in May Raises Specter of US Recession

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: U.S. Jobless Benefits Fell Last Week, Extending Stretch of Low Filings

•   Eurozone Apr. PPI: Eurozone producer prices hit record as inflation spreads beyond energy

•   China May Car sales: China Electric Car Sales Rose in May as Lockdowns Start to Ebb

•   China May New Economy Index: Caixin New Economy Index Drops on Shrinking Capital Investment

•   Brazil Q1 GDP: Weak economic outlook clouds Bolsonaro’s election prospects in Brazil

•   Indonesia May CPI: Indonesia's inflation inches up in May, stays within central bank target

•   한국 4월 온라인 쇼핑: 뚜렷해진 `보복여행`…온라인 거래액 2배 급증

•   한국 5월 전력수요: 가뜩이나 에너지값 비싼데…이른 더위에 5월 전력수요 역대 최고

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): 서울 아파트 값, 2달 만에 하락세 전환

[News]

•   WSJ: OPEC’s Nod to Biden Will Help Saudis, Not Oil Users

※   Changed OPEC+ agreement has less to do with oil prices than with Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic currency with Washington

※   OPEC: 29th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting

•   WSJ: Saudi Oil Boost, Yemen Truce Set Stage for Biden Visit to Kingdom

•   WSJ: Fed’s Lael Brainard Says Too Soon to Say If Pace of Rate Increases Can Slow

※   Central bank’s No. 2 official wants to see deceleration in monthly inflation readings before deciding on policy path later this year

•   WSJ: Fed’s Loretta Mester Sees Need for Aggressive Rate Hikes at Next Two Meetings

•   WSJ: Fed’s Logan Says Digital Money Could Affect Central Bank Operations

•   WSJ: Federal Reserve’s Portfolio Runoff Has Begun

•   WSJ: EU Approves Sixth Russia Sanctions Package, Including Phased Oil Embargo

•   WSJ: Thousands Flee Front-Line Towns in Ukraine as Russian Forces Advance

•   WSJ: Ukraine Security Services Hunt for Russia Supporters and Agents in Their Midst

•   WSJ: China Nears Launch of Advanced Aircraft Carrier, Satellite Images Show

•   WSJ: Shanghai Workers Cheer as Covid Lockdown Ends; No More Bunking at the Office

•   WSJ: Monkeypox Resurfaced in Nigeria After Four Decades. Researchers Still Don’t Know Why.

•   WSJ: Is the Fed Finally In Control? Markets Think So—At Their Peril

•   WSJ: Red-Hot Coal Prices Threaten More Increases in Power Bills

•   WSJ: SPACs Were All the Rage. Now, Not So Much.

•   WSJ: Chip Shortages Might Finally Ease. For Asia, That’s a Mixed Bag.

•   WSJ: Microsoft Cuts Earnings and Revenue Guidance, Citing a Stronger U.S. Dollar

•   WSJ: How a Strong Dollar Hits Microsoft, Other Big U.S. Companies

•   WSJ: Sheryl Sandberg’s Exit From Facebook Parent Meta Isn’t Spooking Wall Street

•   WSJ: Ford to Create Thousands of Factory Jobs, Invest $3.7 Billion in EV, Gas-Engine Production

•   WSJ: This Tesla-Supplying Battery Maker Has Lost Some of Its Power

•   WSJ: Planned Sale of Emerging-Market Coal Plants Is Test Case for Phaseout Plans

•   NYT: U.S. Technology, a Longtime Tool for Russia, Becomes a Vulnerability

•   NYT: U.S. Imposes Sanctions on Yacht Company That Caters to Russian Elites

※   White House: FACT SHEET: United States Takes Further Actions to Counter Sanctions Evasion by Russia

•   NYT: Why a Not-So-Hot Economy Might Be Good News

•   NYT: African Union Head Has Plea for Putin: Release Ukraine’s Grain.

•   NYT: The W.H.O. predicts a steep fall in 2022 of Covid deaths in Africa.

•   WP: Beijing chafes at Moscow’s requests for support, Chinese officials say

•   WP: In Chernobyl’s delicate nuclear labs, Russians looted safety systems

•   WP: Turkey today, Türkiye tomorrow: U.N. okays country’s request for change

•   WP: Don’t expect fuel prices to come down anytime soon

•   WP: Google’s plan to talk about caste bias led to ‘division and rancor’

•   FT: Bad blood after last-minute haggling over Russia sanctions

•   FT: ‘Everything is gone’: Russian business hit hard by tech sanctions

•   FT: Europe’s new defence bloc: Nordics and Baltics unite in face of Russian threat

•   FT: Toshiba agrees ceasefire with investors but fight is far from over

•   FT: US curbs China investment and iPads head to Vietnam

•   Bloomberg: US Labor Market to Show Emerging Dichotomy of Tightness, Risks

•   Bloomberg: US Economic Recovery Seen Extending Social Security Solvency by a Year

•   Bloomberg: Larry Fink Sees Elevated Inflation for Years Due to Supply Shocks

•   Bloomberg: Germany Risks Becoming Sick Man of Europe Again as Woes Mount

•   Bloomberg: EU’s Poorest Member Faces Risk to Euro Goal From Coalition Fight

•   Bloomberg: ECB Traders See Historic Half-Point Rate Hike in December

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Villeroy Says Inflation Is Too Strong and Too Broad

•   Bloomberg: Beijing Plans Subsidies for EV Buyers to Boost Covid-hit Economy

•   Bloomberg: Rate Hikes Spur Bets That Asian Central Banks Will Keep Going

•   Bloomberg: Supply Snarls Promise Southeast Asia Bigger Slice of Trade Pie

•   Bloomberg: Tomatoes Are the Next Big Risk to Modi’s Fight Against Inflation

•   Bloomberg: Good Monsoon Outlook in India Tempers Fears of Rice Export Curbs

•   Bloomberg: China to Drag Global Smartphone Market Down This Year, IDC Says

•   Bloomberg: World’s Biggest Truck Manufacturer Says Chip Crunch Easing

•   Bloomberg: Apple to Improve Working Hours for Retail Staff After Union Push

•   Bloomberg: How to Push Wall Street to Ditch Fossil Fuels for Clean Energy

•   Reuters: Putin clings to semblance of normality as his war grinds on

•   Reuters: Russia's inflation slowdown cannot yet be seen as sustainable - cenbank

•   Reuters: Ukraine power operator denies report it may turn off Russian-held nuclear plant

•   Reuters: Russia occupies 20% of Ukraine's territory- Zelenskiy

•   Reuters: Russia limits exports of noble gases, a key ingredient for making chips

•   Reuters: White House praises Saudi crown prince ahead of expected Biden trip

•   Reuters: Omicron sub-variant fuels Portugal's COVID-19 surge

•   Reuters: Paris Club aims for deal with Argentina "in coming weeks"

•   Reuters: Taiwan tells EU it will continue to be 'trusted' chip partner

•   Reuters: U.S. tech sector sees highest job cuts in May since Dec. 2020- report

•   Reuters: Pfizer's Paxlovid reduces COVID risk in seniors regardless of vaccine status -study

•   MarketWatch: Investors may be in for this rude surprise: History shows inflation can take years to return to normal even when Fed hikes above 10%

•   Fox Business: As Biden takes massive approval rating hit, White House moves to act on inflation

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: Shanghai’s community infections return a day after formal lockdown exit, sending some areas back into quarantine

•   SCMP: China yuan: worst over after volatility went ‘beyond expectations’, US dollar may weaken, Beijing says

•   SCMP: China’s Belt and Road plans for Southeast Asia face uncertain ‘long-term prospects’ as social, environment concerns persist: study

•   SCMP: Beijing urges US to cut military ties with Taiwan after defence chief Lloyd Austin’s remarks

•   SCMP: Shanghai ends lockdown: formal reopening fails to impress stock traders as path to economic recovery remains unclear

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: as Shanghai reopens, South Korean firms race to shake off lockdown disruptions

•   SCMP: China economy: companies ‘extremely cautious’ as uncertainty hangs over business environment

•   Global Times: China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway to start construction in 2023: Kyrgyz President tells local media

•   Nikkei Asia: Toyota unveils home batteries that hook up to hybrids, EVs

•   Economic Times: SBI revises up FY23 economic growth forecast to 7.5%

•   매경(P1): 해뜰 때까지 몰랐다…김동연, 8000표차로 경기지사 당선

•   매경(P1): "상황 급박" 삼성전자 위기대응 전담팀 신설

•   매경: 연말도 아닌데…반도체임원 대거 쇄신 인사

•   매경: 이재용, 이번엔 네덜란드 간다…반도체 장비 공급난 풀러

•   매경(P1): [단독] "화학물질 관리 기준, 독성따라 차등 적용"

•   매경: "우리동네, 재개발 탄력받나"…구청·의회 등에 업은 오세훈

•   매경: 이창용 총재 "물가 안정 후 장기 저성장 올수도"

•   매경: 최저임금 인상 후폭풍…밀린 월급 1조6000억원, 임금체불 일본의 16배

•   매경: 상하이 봉쇄 해제 후폭풍…부산항 패싱 또 불거지나

•   매경: 추경호 "법인·상속세 개편"…손경식 "기업인 사면을"

•   매경: [알립니다] 서울대 경영대, 韓 5대 미래산업 제시

•   매경: '제조업 혁신 황금알' 클라우드에 빅테크 총집결

•   매경: 금감원 회계감리 기한 '1년' 못넘긴다…제2의 셀트리온 논란 차단

•   한경(P1): 화물연대 파업 직격탄…하이트진로 생산 중단

•   한경: 선거 끝나자마자 노동계 줄파업 예고…尹정부 노동정책 '시험대'

•   한경: 파업 푼지 얼마됐다고…택배 노조 또 '머리띠'

•   한경(P1): [단독] SKC, 몸값 1.6조 필름사업 판다

•   한경: 현대차·기아 '반도체난'…5월 글로벌 판매 감소

•   한경: 中 기업까지…삼성 빼고 다 뛰어든 'K-UAM'

•   한경: 5G 주파수, 결국 추가 할당…LG유플러스 웃고 SKT는 "유감"

•   한경: 로봇이 사고칠라…보험 만든다

•   한경: 코딩은 MZ 행원 몫?…임원들도 '열공' 중입니다

•   한경: "수도권 규제 완화될까"…오세훈·김동연 '부동산 공약' 보니

•   서경(P1): [단독]해외수주 자금 지원…'건설은행' 설립한다

•   서경: 과열되는 英 ARM 인수전…SK·퀄컴 이어 삼성·인텔도 참전하나

•   서경: 가입자만 봉…금리 뛰는데 청약통장은 7년째 '1%대'

•   서경: 현대重 '자율운항'으로 태평양 건넜다

•   서경: 삼성전자-네이버클라우드 '이음 5G' 국내 첫 상용화

•   조선: 경제 석학 스티븐 로치 “기준금리 급히 올리고 연착륙? 바늘구멍만큼 확률 낮다”

•   조선: 제조업, 기계를 넘어 생각해야 살아남는다

•   조선: 멸종 위기였던 석유공룡, 에너지대란에 살판났다

•   조선: 美제재 피하려 中 반도체 기업들이 눈 돌린 ‘RISC-V’… 돌파구 될까

•   조선비즈: 기술 한계? 3나노에 막힌 TSMC, 아이폰14 칩도 5나노 적용

•   조선비즈: 한경연 “환율 안정적이었다면, 1분기 소비자물가상승률 3.8%→3.1%”

•   조선비즈: 건설투자 5년째 마이너스 성장…성장률 끌어내린 원자잿값·공급부진

•   조선비즈: 필리핀 원전도 수주 가능성… 현지 당국자 “韓 제안, 경제적”

•   조선비즈: [르포] “치킨집 운영 20년 이래 최악”... 사장님 울리는 식용유값

•   중앙: 신현송 “기대 인플레 막으려면 금리인상 등 지속추진 필요”

•   국민: [단독] 중재에도 꿈쩍 않는 둔촌주공… “6개월 중단땐 1.6조 손실”

•   국민: 스마트워치에 꽂힌 IT업계, 손목 위 간편결제 경쟁 뜨겁다

•   서울: “6월 중 하루 확진자 6000명 수준 될 것”

•   세계: 황금연휴 해외로… 봇물 터진 ‘보복여행’

•   세계: 서울 매매주택 10채중 6채는 ‘빌라’

•   머니투데이: "휘발유가 2926원?"...유류세 30% 인하, 10월까지 연장될 듯

•   헤럴드경제: 반도체·전기차·수소·풍력…지역거점 미래·친환경 산업 탄력

•   헤럴드경제: 4개월째 멈춰선 채석장…건설, 이번엔 ‘골재대란’

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 제동 걸린 임피제… 노사 소송전 판 커졌다 [임금피크제 '대법 제동' 일파만파]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "동일한 업무 하는데 임금 왜 깎나"... 줄소송 벼르는 노조 [임금피크제 ‘대법 제동’ 일파만파]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "20만원 장봐도 일주일 못가요" 미친 물가에 쪼그라든 밥상 [서민경제 덮친 물가]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "대외 악재에 하반기 수출도 불안... 中·우크라·긴축·엔저에 대응해야"

•   이데일리: 물가 상승 둔화되니 경기 우려…2Q 어닝쇼크 예상 종목은?

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 1만2천92명 확진…어제보다 2천400여명 늘어

•   전자신문(P1): 시총 9위 솔라나, 네트워크 또 '셧다운'…코인 패닉

•   전자신문(P1): [단독]카카오, 커머스 직매입 사업 진출

•   전자신문: 손바닥·얼굴로 '카드 결제'…생체인증, 규제에 꽁꽁 묶였다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Brett Fleishman): New Financial Conditions, Same Climate Calculus

•   FT(Gillian Tett): CBDCs now hold wholesale appeal for central bankers

•   FT(Edward Luce): The west is starting to feel Ukraine fatigue

•   FT(David Pilling): Trouble ahead as the world food crisis starts to bite

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Private equity meets bear market

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): When Progressives Fail, Inflation Edition

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Biden’s Ukraine Rocket Whiplash

•   WSJ(Alan S. Blinder): Inflation Isn’t Transitory, but It Isn’t Permanent Either

•   WSJ(Karl Rove): Biden Has No Plan to Fight Inflation

•   WSJ(Joseph C. Sternberg): China Tires of ‘Being China for a Day’

•   WSJ(Sean Fieler): The ESG Movement Is a Ripe Target for Antitrust Action

•   NYT(Ro Khanna): There Is Way More Biden Can Do to Lower Prices

•   NYT(Peter Beinart): Is Biden’s Foreign Policy Team the Best of ‘the Blob’

•   WP(David Ignatius): Biden hunkers down for a long, limited war in Ukraine

•   WP(Jennifer Rubin): Yellen wisely admitted error on inflation. The White House should follow her example.

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): A Russian Default Won’t Win the War

•   Bloomberg(Anjani Trivedi): These Are the Batteries We Need to Ease the Power Crunch

•   Bloomberg(Karl W. Smith): US Inflation: Biden’s Economic Hubris Gives Way to Humility

•   Bloomberg(Amanda Little): Farm Robots Will Solve Many of Our Food Worries

•   CNN(Mike Zaffaroni): Small businesses like mine are struggling to deal with rising prices for almost everything

•   MarketWatch(Michael Brush): Inflation has peaked — now it's time to go bargain shopping for consumer-discretionary stocks

•   MarketWatch(Robert Brusca): The Federal Reserve is shrinking its balance sheet under duress, which makes a soft landing nearly impossible