Global Economic Monitor 220609

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Shares slide as sentiment ebbs on rate fears, yields rise

※   Investors cautious ahead of ECB meeting, U.S. CPI data

※   White House expects next inflation numbers to be elevated

※   Crude surges to 13-week high on rising U.S. demand

※   Global growth worries sap investment sentiment

•   Japan: Japanese yen slides further against dollar on BoJ policy divergence

•   Turkey: Turkish lira’s slide accelerates as Erdoğan vows to continue slashing rates

•   Natural gas: US Natural Gas Prices Slump After Fire at Texas LNG Terminal

•   Metals: Copper claws higher on hopes for recovery in China

•   Lumber: Lumber Price Gets Chopped in Half Amid Chill in Housing Markets

•   Grains: CBOT soybeans, corn and wheat rise; soy nears 10-year highs

•   한국: 코스피 2,620대 약보합 마감…외인·기관 매도

[Indicators]

•   US Apr. Wholesale inventories: U.S. wholesale inventories increase strongly; sales growth slows

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications: Mortgage-Application Index Falls to Lowest Level in 22 Years

•   Eurozone Q1 GDP(rev.): Euro-Zone Economy Grew More Than Estimated at Start of Year

•   Germany Apr. Industrial production: German industrial output rises smaller-than-expected 0.7% in April

•   Japan Q1 GDP(rev.): Japan’s Smaller Economic Slip Points to Consumer Rebound

•   Japan Apr. Current account : Japan's April current account surplus down 55% amid Ukraine war

•   Japan May Economy Watchers sentiment: Japan economy watcher sentiment up in May on service sector recovery

•   India Benchmark rate: India Raises Benchmark Rates for Second Straight Month to Tame ‘Steep’ Inflation

※   RBI: Monetary Policy Statement, 2022-23 Resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) June 6-8, 2022

•   Russia May CPI: Russia’s Inflation Eases, Giving Government Economic Breathing Room

•   한국 2020년 일자리이동통계: 코로나 첫해 이직자 40%는 월급도 깎였다

•   한국 2021년 국민계정: 작년 국민총소득 3만5373달러… 고물가 등에 체감소득과 거리

※   한겨레: 노동소득분배율 선방?…자영업 ‘몰락’과 IT 대기업 ‘호황’의 착시!

•   한국 1분기 GDP(잠정): 수출로 버틴 1분기 경제…성장률 0.6%, 속보치보다 0.1%p↓

[News]

•   WSJ: Russian Invasion Expected to Keep Inflation High in Rich Countries

※   Priority for governments should be preventing food shortages, says OECD

※   OECD: OECD Economic Outlook reveals heavy global price of Russia’s war against Ukraine

•   WSJ: U.S. Considering Reducing Tariffs on China to Ease Inflation, Yellen Says

※   Treasury secretary also tells House members she expects progress on global tax agreement

•   WSJ: Powell’s Opinions on Inflation Matter, Not Biden’s

•   WSJ: Fed Pick Michael Barr Approved by Senate Panel, Overcoming Key Confirmation Hurdle

•   WSJ: Derby’s Take: A Sense of the Policy Impact of Cuts to the Fed’s Balance Sheet Emerges

•   WSJ: Fear and Destruction Are Turning Ukraine’s Front-Line Cities Into Ghost Towns

•   WSJ: Russia-Turkey Talks on Ukraine Grain Passage End Without Breakthrough

•   WSJ: Russia Takes Captured Ukrainian Fighters From Mariupol to Its Territory

•   WSJ: Fertilizer Price Surge Drives Brazil to High-Tech Alternatives

•   WSJ: High Fuel Prices Squeeze African Consumers, Strand Truckers and Snarl Flights

•   WSJ: U.N. Nuclear Watchdog Rebukes Iran for Failure to Cooperate With Probe

•   WSJ: SEC’s Revamp of Stock-Trading Rules Faces Criticism From Wall Street

•   WSJ: Tech’s Decade of Stock-Market Dominance Ends, For Now

•   WSJ: For Tech, Southeast Asia Is a Rare Bright Spot

•   WSJ: Moderna’s Covid-19 Vaccine Targeting Omicron Produces Stronger Immune Response

•   WSJ: Novavax’s New Covid-19 Vaccine Might Be Late to the Party

•   WSJ: Microsoft’s Augmented-Reality Chief Plans to Leave Company

•   WSJ: TSMC Sticks to Sales Growth Outlook Despite Economic Woes, Inflation

•   WSJ: Carbon-Removal Industry Draws Billions to Fight Climate Change

•   WSJ: Abbott Received Former Employee’s Warnings on Baby-Formula Plant Earlier Than Previously Known

•   NYT: Russia Is Racing to Cement Its Control in Southern Ukraine

•   NYT: From the Graveside to the Front, Ukrainians Tell of Grim Endurance

•   NYT: White House Struggles to Talk About the ‘Problem From Hell’

•   NYT: Recession? Stagflation? British Businesses Wade Through Dire Warnings.

•   NYT: Twitter Said to Agree to Give Elon Musk Access to Stream of Tweets

•   WP: Empty wallets, empty tanks: Surging gas prices leave drivers stranded

•   FT: UN warns of hunger risk as talks over Ukraine grain blockade stall

※   Disputes over access to Black Sea port of Odesa while Kyiv fears opening itself to more attacks

•   FT: Apple to shift some iPad production to Vietnam amid China supply chain woes

•   FT: Lagarde in the hot seat as ECB ends easy-money era

•   FT: End of ECB stimulus to leave demand ‘void’ in corporate bond market

•   FT: Europe at risk of winter energy rationing, energy watchdog warns

•   FT: Combative Merkel denies appeasing Putin over Ukraine

•   FT: Manufacturers criticise Brussels’ move to retain punitive steel import tariffs

•   FT: EU green agenda suffers blow after MEPs reject part of climate bill

•   FT: Johnson warned of new clash with MPs over N Ireland protocol

•   FT: Johnson makes boosting economic growth his top priority

•   FT: ‘Now or never’: Japan and South Korea seek a relationship reset

•   FT: Bolsonaro tries to burnish diplomatic credentials with Biden meeting

•   FT: BoJ’s Kuroda forced to retract claim consumers tolerant of price rises

•   FT: Fossil fuels: does divestment work?

•   FT: No VR, but Apple shows OS vision

•   Bloomberg: WTO Dysfunction Marks Turning Point to New Era of Trade Tensions

•   Bloomberg: Nobel Laureate Shiller Sees ‘Good Chance’ of a US Recession

※   Yale economist also warns of return of housing bubble fears

•   Bloomberg: Cathie Wood Sees Huge Inventories as Evidence Inflation Will Ebb

•   Bloomberg: Biden Faces Doubts on US Clout as Leaders Skip Americas Summit

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Sees 1.2% Boost to Yuan if US Drops Some China Tariffs

•   Bloomberg: Russians Flock to EU Court in Long-Shot Bids to Topple Sanctions

•   Bloomberg: EU Nations Warn Brussels Over Crisis Plan for Supply-Chain Gaps

•   Bloomberg: Germany to Bolster NATO Force in Lithuania With 500 More Troops

•   Bloomberg: Inflation Takes Toll on UK Construction as Home Building Hit

•   Bloomberg: US Sees Path to More Sway in Asia as Xi’s Efforts Stall

•   Bloomberg: Xinjiang Scholars Urge UN Rights Chief to Publish China Report

•   Bloomberg: Calls Grow to Boycott Indian Goods as Islam Insult Riles Mideast

•   Bloomberg: India Fuel Tax Cut Helps Cool Worsening Price Expectations

•   Bloomberg: Brazil’s Economic Troubles Leave Lula Closer to Winning Election

•   Bloomberg: BOJ’s Rock-Bottom Rates Are Crucial for Kishida’s Spending Plans

•   Bloomberg: UK Lenders to Pay Annual Levy That Will Raise £200 Million for BOE Running Costs

•   Bloomberg: ‘Train Wreck’ Economy or Red-Hot Inflation Is Big New Bond Call

•   Bloomberg: Ray Dalio Says Central Banks to Cut Rates in 2024, AFR Reports

•   Bloomberg: Europe to Receive First Venezuelan Crude in Years as Sanctions Ease

•   Bloomberg: Gasoline Use Hits Year-to-Date High as US Driving Season Starts

•   Bloomberg: Oil Prices Are ‘Nowhere Near’ Peak Yet, Says OPEC Member UAE

•   Bloomberg: The Formula Crisis Takes an Economic Toll on Families in Gas Money and Wasted Hours

•   Bloomberg: China Tech Earnings Outlook Improves as Regulatory Tone Softens

•   Bloomberg: Volkswagen Is Looking at Making Own Batteries in North America

•   Bloomberg: Microsoft Slashes Russia Operations After War Clouds Outlook

•   Bloomberg: Intel Drags Down Chipmakers With Views on Weakening Demand

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: How Chicken Became the Only Meat Everyone Agrees On

•   Reuters: Russian army base sees scramble for war supplies, locals and soldiers say

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Under Biden, China has widened trade lead in much of Latin America

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Russia has no extra oil to sign deals with two Indian buyers - sources

•   Reuters: U.S. senator to convene classified briefing on semiconductors amid chip shortage -sources

•   Reuters: ECB to chart course out of stimulus, setting stage for rate hikes

•   Reuters: IEA's Birol says harsh and long winter could trigger European energy shortage

•   Reuters: Apple's new car software no threat, complements our products, says Panasonic

•   AP: High prices, low inventory, a new norm for car shoppers

•   MarketWatch: Oil prices could go ‘parabolic,’ putting global economy in a ‘critical situation,’ says Trafigura chief

•   Fox Business: Why are there still so many Americans quitting their jobs?

•   SCMP: Exclusive | China’s positions crucial in crunch talks as WTO chief eyes deals on fishing and vaccines

•   SCMP: Will China’s rail link between Xinjiang, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan change the great power rivalry in Central Asia?

•   SCMP: China defends its veto of UN Security Council resolution sanctioning North Korea

•   SCMP: China gains ground on US in hi-tech ‘tug of war’, as Beijing spends billions on national champions

•   SCMP: China R&D key part of ‘global portfolio’, but technology leaks remain concern, report says

•   SCMP: China welcomes ‘important’ capital inflows with economy still reeling from coronavirus outbreaks

•   SCMP: Shanghai reopening: Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 to exit ‘closed loop’ on June 11 as Covid-19 fears ease

•   SCMP: China’s transport restrictions have upended goods trade, Premier Li says in calling for logistical changes

•   Nikkei Asia: Russia steps up pressure on Japan with halt to fisheries deal

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan's Sumco, Showa Denko to hike chip material prices 20-30%

•   Nikkei Asia: China's Pacific island-hopping reveals new front line of geopolitics

•   Nikkei Asia: Satellite internet poised for big bang of growth in Southeast Asia

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Xi shushes party elders as he marches toward 3rd term

•   Economic Times: At 6.7%, Central Bank’s inflation forecast could be an optimistic one

•   매경(P1): 자동차생산 멈추나…현대차 좌표 찍은 화물연대

•   매경: 화물연대 "물류 3일이면 완전 마비"…완성차 출고까지 막았다

•   매경: 멈춰선 물류 중소기업부터 덮쳤다…무역협회 피해사례 中企집중

•   매경: 편도운행에 왕복운임 받고, 인천서 출발하면 20% 더 받고

•   매경: "이젠 피로 누가 풀어주나"…박카스 이어 아로나민까지 가격 10% '쑥'

•   매경: 중국의 위협서 지켜줄 방패…대만, 반도체공장 확 늘린다

•   매경: 秋부총리 "경기대응 주체는 기업…정부 역할은 이삭 줍기"

•   매경: [단독] 한은, 노동소득분배율 개선안 발표 연기

•   매경: 탄소중립 외친 美·유럽 운용사들, 실천은 '꾸물'

•   매경: 한해 40% 쑥쑥 크는 이 시장…롯데 LG도 눈독 들인다는데

•   매경: [단독] 테슬라 3위로 밀렸다…한국 전기차 시장 1위에 오른 차는

•   매경: "임금피크제 판결, 소송 기폭제될 것"

•   매경: "ICT 최신기술 또 진화했네요"…혁신기업 220곳 총집결 '역대최대'

•   매경: 전·월세 시장 불안한데…해법 못찾는 정부

•   매경: 7억 더 있어야 한강 건너 강남 간다…중형아파트 5년새 격차 두배로 벌어져

•   매경: [Science in Biz] 전국 곳곳에 짓는 수소연료전지 발전소…친환경까진 먼길

•   매경: [Industry Review] 러시아서 철수한 기업들 시총 상승…주주들도 '反戰' 원한다

•   매경: [Industry Review] ESG시대 살아남기…기업 '공급망 연합군' 구축 절실

•   한경(P1): [단독] 테슬라 카메라모듈 수주…삼성전기, 5조 '잭팟'

•   한경(P1): "ESG경영 안착하려면 中企 지원이 필수"

•   한경(P1): "나는 대한민국에 사기당했다"…최저임금 근로자로 전락, 유턴기업 사장의 절규

•   한경: 서류준비 6개월·인허가 하세월…"정부 믿고 왔는데 기업 공중분해"

•   한경: "中서 돌아오고 싶지만 韓은 규제 더 심해"

•   한경: 尹정부선 유턴기업 파격 지원책 나올까

•   한경: [단독] 與 '당론 1호 법안'은 납품단가 연동제

•   한경: "커피값으로도 부동산 투자 가능"…물류센터에 돈 몰린다

•   한경: 자재값 급등에 파업까지…"입주 늦어질라" 속타는 실수요자

•   한경: 로봇이 커피 배달…서울시, 코엑스서 실증 사업

•   서경(P1): [시그널] 한전, 금리 3배 주고 해외서 1조 긴급 수혈

•   서경: [시그널] 적자 20조 더 쌓이는데…한전, 해외서 돈 빌려 수익성 낮은 신재생 베팅

•   서경(P1): 尹 '반도체 질책'에…교육부 "수도권大 정원 확대 검토"

•   서경(P1): OECD의 경고 "韓 성장 2.7% 그치고 물가 4.8% 뛴다"

•   서경: "오일쇼크 때보다 경기침체 빨라"…무역의존도 큰 韓 타격 불보듯

•   서경: 첨단 R&D도 稅지원 퇴짜…대기업 '역차별'에 공제율 2% 불과

•   서경: 6차례 회의서 5차례 "물가·경제"…尹, 구두 닳도록 민생 챙겼다

•   서경: 車 출고까지 1년 넘는데…개소세 감면 ‘찔끔’ 연장

•   서경: 네이버 "5G·ARC 융합기술, 내년 상용화"

•   서경: [사이언스] 반도체·디스플레이·태양광…원리는 하나

•   서경: "최저임금보다 못 버는 사장 수두룩…업종·지역별 차등적용해야"

•   조선(P1): 文정부 기관장 69%, 임기 1년 넘게 남았다

•   조선: 반도체에 ‘RE100’ 암초… 이대로면 수출 30% 줄어든다

•   조선: 항공 요금, 한번 뜨면 쉽게 못내려… 8월까지 기다리세요

•   조선: [단독] 올 8000억어치 미사일 쏜 北… 全주민 백신비용 맞먹어

•   조선비즈: 삼성·인텔 vs SK·퀄컴… 100조 英 ARM 인수전 합종연횡

•   조선비즈: [단독] 인구 감소도 반영 안 한 ‘기재부 재정운용계획’…감사원 “지출은 과소, 수입은 과다 추계”

•   조선비즈: 고물가·추경 우려에 벌어진 장단기 금리 차…“하반기엔 다시 축소”

•   조선비즈: 1인당 국민소득 2배로 뛸 동안 서울 집값 3배로 올랐다

•   조선비즈: 갤럭시 S22 울트라, GOS 논란 딛고 1분기 가장 많이 팔린 스마트폰

•   조선비즈: 애플 괴물 칩 M2 호평에… 반도체 기판 공급하는 삼성전기 ‘활짝’

•   조선비즈: [단독] 정권 바뀌니 사라진 뉴딜 금융… 금융위부터 文 흔적 지우기 시작

•   조선비즈: OLED TV 출시 머뭇거리는 삼성전자… 대세라지만 점유율 4% 불과

•   조선비즈: 민관 합동 ‘원전수출전략 추진단’ 가동…한·미 원전동맹도 본격화

•   인베스트조선: 대기자금 넘치는 벤처·유니콘 생태계…'버블' 키우는 기업성장펀드

•   중앙: 서울 6억 이하 아파트 62.7→7.6%로 줄었다

•   중앙: 중국·독일 질주에…K전기차·배터리 점유율 떨어졌다

•   동아(P1): 北 7차 핵실험 초읽기… 美, 괌 B-1B 전격 공개

•   동아: 투자도 동맹국에… 中사업 16년 업체, 美로 돌아서

•   동아: 日 단체관광 내일 재개… 1주새 예약 284% 급증

•   동아: 中 최대 수입국 자리… 2년째 대만에 밀렸다

•   동아: [단독]정부, 우크라이나 무기지원 가능성 열어놓고 검토

•   한국(P1): '상전 모시듯' 전 세계가 대만 반도체 회사 유치에 사활 건 까닭은 [재도약 반도체 코리아]

•   한국: "농업 용수 끌어다 주고, 6개월 마다 신입생 뽑고" 반도체 힘껏 밀어주는 대만 [재도약 반도체 코리아]

•   한겨레(P1): 한달 매출 1300만원인데…화물기사 김씨는 왜 파업을 해?

•   한겨레: 이재용 부회장, 그렇게 경영을 하고 다니는데…‘미취업’이라고?

•   한겨레: [뉴스AS] ‘갑을 역전’…웨스팅하우스, 한국 원전업체에 손 내민다

•   머니투데이(P1): 이복현의 금감원, 라임·옵티머스 다시 만지나... '칼바람' 예고

•   머니투데이: "믿었던 경상수지, 2년만에 처음 적자 나겠네"...환율 또 뛸라

•   머니투데이: "낡은 규제 확 뜯어고친다"...청정수소 안전활용 기준 마련

•   머니투데이: 스마트폰 부진해도 폴더블은 2배 큰다...노 젓는 삼성디스플레이

•   머니투데이: 메모리반도체 성장률 전망치, 3개월만에 17%p 오른 이유

※   WSTS: WSTS Semiconductor Market Forecast Spring 2022

•   머니투데이: [단독]치킨 2만원에 5000원 더…외식물가 끌어 올리는 '배달비' 첫 조사

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): "인간 지성만으론 과학혁신 한계… AI가 신무기" [AI월드 2022]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 기업 매출·자산 증가율 '역대 최대'… 좀비기업도 줄었다 [작년 기업 성장·수익성 개선]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 배터리 소재 확보 직접뛰는 완성차… 현대차, 구매담당 뽑아

•   아시아경제(P1): 尹정부 경제팀 '정통 정책라인' 부각…역대 경제정책국장 살펴보니

•   아시아경제: 경제관료 변천사...尹정부서 예산처 출신 득세하는 이유

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]전세지옥…전세자금대출 167조원 2030세대가 절반

•   아시아경제: 배달 시키려다 멈칫, 100만명이 돌아섰다

•   디지털타임스(P1): "임금피크제 폐지" 삼성 노조도 요구

•   디지털타임스: 민간 재건축 심의 절반 단축… `250만+α` 주택공급 가속도

•   이데일리: 'JY 끌고 尹 미는' 지금이 적기…'반도체 초격차' 고삐 조이는 삼성

•   이데일리: 'D-7' 누리호 이번엔 위성싣고 간다..작년 발사와 차이점은

•   이데일리: 증시 이탈하는 개미들…‘수급 열쇠’ 외국인 언제 오나

•   이데일리: 삼성전자, 공매도 3배 넘게 '껑충'…주가 더 떨어지나

•   이데일리: 7월부터 DSR규제 강화…“하반기도 거래절벽 지속될듯”

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 1만1411명 확진…어제보다 1천413명 적어

•   연합: '관광지서 지갑열기 겁난다'…전국 유명맛집도 가격 줄줄이 인상

•   연합: 백악관 "北 핵실험시 강력 대응"…美, 잇단 대북 경고 메시지

•   뉴스1: [단독]카카오 '메타버스 근무제' 수정…음성연결·주1회 대면회의 '의무→권장'

•   전자신문(P1): 삼성 베트남 공장, 스마트폰 조업일수 줄였다

•   전자신문: 세계 각국 '전기요금 인상' 릴레이…韓도 압박 가중

•   전자신문: 삼성전자·SK하이닉스, AICAS 2022서 'PIM 반도체' 맞대결

•   전자신문: LG전자 '전장사업' 매출 효자로…2분기 성적표 '청신호'

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Dani Rodrik): The Other Side of US Exceptionalism

•   Project Syndicate(Nick Butler): Can Nuclear Energy Come Back from the Grave?

•   Project Syndicate(Daron Acemoglu): Understanding the New Nationalism

•   Project Syndicate(Minxin Pei): What the Ukraine War Should Teach China

•   FT(Editorial Board): The US’s lack of ambition risks losing Latin America

•   FT(Chris Giles): Europe faces a miserable few months ahead

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Readers see a recession

•   FT(Emiko Terazono): West needs to act fast to tackle food crisis — and Moscow’s blame game

•   FT(John Sawers): Macron is playing a risky game on Ukraine

•   FT(Amit Khandelwal): Time to lift Trump’s tariffs on China to fight inflation

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Chinese Navy’s Great Leap Forward

•   WSJ(Robert D. Kaplan): Communism Still Haunts Russia

•   NYT(Thomas L. Friedman): The Ukraine War Still Holds Surprises. The Biggest May Be for Putin.

•   NYT(Peter Coy): The U.S. Tech Sector Is Looking Weak. That’s a Geopolitical Risk.

•   WP(Editorial Board): It’s time to confront Putin’s destructive war on grain.

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): The US Should Be Paying More Attention to the Pacific

•   Bloomberg(Andy Mukherjee): India’s Central Bank Is Getting Its Way on Rates. But For How Long?

•   Bloomberg(Jared Dillian): Inflation's 'Fun' Period Was Way Too Brief

•   Bloomberg(Nir Kaissar): Beware of a Bear Market That Is More Than a Cub

•   Bloomberg(James Stavridis): Climate Change Is a Military Problem for the US

•   Bloomberg(Tim Culpan): Taiwan's TSMC May Be Recession Proof, But It’s Not Bulletproof

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Even 3% Yields Can’t Entice Wary Treasury Investors

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): In the Oil Market, the Strong Dollar Is the World’s Problem

•   MarketWatch(Peter Morici): Inflation above 4% may become a fact of life