Global Economic Monitor 220622

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: U.S. stocks jump 2% after recent selloff; yen drops vs dollar

※   S&P 500 ends up more than 2%

※   U.S. Treasury yields rise

※   Yen plunges against dollar

※   Crude oil settles higher

•   Japan: Yen Slumps to 24-Year Low as Investors Embrace Riskier Assets

•   Russia: The Russian ruble keeps rising, hitting a seven-year high.

•   Metals: Zinc prices surge on supply fears, low inventories

•   Cobalt: Cobalt Gets Cheaper as China’s Buyers Suffer From Battery Slump

•   Grains: US wheat futures hit lowest since late March

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin’s Price Bounces Above $21,000, Reversing Weekend Slide

•   한국: 한숨 돌린 증시…코스피 사흘만에 반등, 2,400선 회복

•   한국: 원화값 연일 추락 '1293.6원'…1.2원 내려 연저점 또 경신

[Indicators]

•   US May Existing home sales: U.S. Existing-Home Sale Prices Hit Record of $407,600 in May

※   WSJ: America Faces a Housing Bust

•   한국 2021년 하반기 지역별 고용: 1인가구 취업자 400만명 훌쩍… 30%가 월급 200만원 이하

•   한국 6월 1~20일 무역수지: 올 무역적자 벌써 155억弗…상반기 역대 최악 우려

[News]

•   WSJ: Russia Pushes to Seize Chemical Plant in Severodonetsk as Ukraine Detains Suspected Spies

•   WSJ: U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland Visits Ukraine to Discuss Investigating War Crimes

•   WSJ: U.S. Natural-Gas Exporter Completes First Deal With German Buyer

•   WSJ: Firms Warn of China Shipment Delays as U.S. Bans Xinjiang Imports

•   WSJ: India Tells Oil Companies to Load Up on Discounted Russian Crude

•   WSJ: Inflation Outpaces Forecasts in Australia and South Korea

•   WSJ: France’s Macron Faces Parliament Battle Over Pro-Business Agenda

•   WSJ: With Markets in Disarray, International Investors Are Stockpiling U.S. Dollars

•   WSJ: Inflation Collides With Growth Fears to Trigger Big Swings in the Bond Market

•   WSJ: Airports Around the World Battle Long Lines, Canceled Flights

•   WSJ: Companies Find Leaving Russia Difficult, Though Many Are Trying

•   WSJ: Airbus Calls on West to Avoid Sanctions on Russian Titanium

•   WSJ: Green Energy’s Big Looming Problem Is Red Tape

•   WSJ: Facebook Parent Meta Agrees to End Alleged Discriminatory Practices in Housing Ads

•   WSJ: TikTok Grabs More Ad Dollars, as Marketers Look to Attract Gen Z and Millennials

•   NYT: After a Pivotal Period in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Predict the War’s Path

•   NYT: Covid Vaccines Slowly Roll Out for Children Under 5

•   NYT: Can Natural Gas Be Used to Create Power With Fewer Emissions?

•   WP: The comedown: After stimulus boom, Americans face a darkening economy

•   FT: Russia warns Lithuania of serious consequences over Kaliningrad rail ‘blockade’

•   FT: Monetary policy on the cheap? Let’s reserve judgement

•   FT: Electoral breakthrough puts far-right leader Marine Le Pen ‘back in the game’

•   FT: Why EU enlargement debate remains fraught ahead of summit

•   FT: Eurozone’s shoppers to swallow more supersized food price rises, warns ECB

•   FT: German finance minister rejects 2035 combustion engine ban

•   FT: Scholz aide’s comments on future links with Russia trigger dismay

•   FT: Strikes pose economic challenge for Labour

•   FT: ‘The world has changed’: rail strike’s uneven impact on Britain’s workers

•   FT: UK rail bosses push for job cuts as strike talks resume

•   FT: Inflation to raise UK food bills by £380 this year, data show

•   FT: The danger of a US fossil fuel export ban

•   FT: South-east Asia bucks global stagflation trend as tourism and exports climb

•   FT: Israel faces fifth election in three years

•   FT: Military recruitment reform sparks furious protests across India

•   FT: Global steelmakers face $518bn in stranded asset risk

•   FT: Musk’s Starlink aid to Ukraine triggers scrutiny in China over US military links

•   FT: US retailers face shake-up as consumers trade down to beat rising prices

•   FT: From nappies to cricket: China’s Alibaba targets South Asia

•   Bloomberg: Musk, Roubini and Goldman Warn of Rising US Recession Risk

※   Warnings come as rising interest rates fuel hard landing fears

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Warns US Recession Risk Now Higher and More Front-Loaded

•   Bloomberg: Biden Shrugs Off Revenue Impact of Potential Gas-Tax Pause in Latest Hint

•   Bloomberg: Biden Is Considering a Federal Gas Tax Holiday. It Might Not Work

•   Bloomberg: Ray Dalio Says Reducing Inflation Will Come at Great Cost

•   Bloomberg: Supply Issues Account for Half of Surge in US Inflation, Study Says

※   FRBSF: How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?

•   Bloomberg: US Rents Surge by Another Record, Led by a 41% Jump in Miami

•   Bloomberg: Barkin Says Fed Should Normalize Policy ‘as Fast as Feasible’

•   Bloomberg: Power Grids Serving 40% of US Face Blazing Start to Summer

•   Bloomberg: White House Claim of Inflation Cushion Undercut by Savings Data

•   Bloomberg: Biden Escalates War of Words With Big Oil Ahead of Talks

•   Bloomberg: Putin Ally Vows Russian Response to EU Kaliningrad Sanctions

•   Bloomberg: Germany Prepares to Trigger Second Stage of Emergency Gas Plan

•   Bloomberg: It’s Not Just Spreads ECB Chief Lagarde Needs to Tackle

•   Bloomberg: Euro-Area Inflation Isn’t Just Imported, New ECB Indicator Shows

※   ECB: A new indicator of domestic inflation for the euro area

•   Bloomberg: Ukraine Reconstruction May Cost $1.1 Trillion, EIB Head Says

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Kazimir Says Negative Rates Must Be ‘History’ by September

•   Bloomberg: ECB Least Likely to Blink on Rate Hikes, Goldman Analysis Shows

•   Bloomberg: How Russia-Europe Gas Row Could Embolden ECB Hawks

•   Bloomberg: BOE Chief Economist Says He’d Sacrifice Growth to Cut Inflation

•   Bloomberg: China Outbreaks Shift to South With Shenzhen, Macau on Alert

•   Bloomberg: China Premier’s Trip to Wheat Farm Shows Lingering Food Worries

•   Bloomberg: Heavy Flooding, Landslides Destroy Buildings, Roads in China

•   Bloomberg: Goldman’s New Index Shows China-Taiwan Tension at Decade High

•   Bloomberg: Weak Yen Becomes Weapon for Kishida Opponents in Japan Upper House Election

•   Bloomberg: Roubini Says Yen Above 140 Is Trigger for BOJ Policy Change

•   Bloomberg: India to Resist Anti-US Messaging at Summit With Xi, Putin

•   Bloomberg: Indonesia Tightens Screening at Large Events as Covid Cases Rise

•   Bloomberg: Brazil’s Central Bank Backs Higher Key Rate to Anchor Prices

•   Bloomberg: We’re Already Seeing the Stock Market Selloff Spill Into the Housing Market

•   Bloomberg: Dollar Has Scope to Climb Another 5% If Conditions Tighten More

•   Bloomberg: Russia Wants Ruble Fix Without Wrecking Inflation Targeting

•   Bloomberg: China Junk Bond Selloff in New Phase With Record Fosun Rout

•   Bloomberg: Oil Spending Won’t Recover in 2022 as War Riles Market, IEF Says

•   Bloomberg: Gasoline Fever Lures Bumper Exports of Niche Chemical From China

•   Bloomberg: Global Food Inflation Gets Reprieve as Wheat and Oilseeds Tumble

•   Bloomberg: Eric Schmidt Urges US to Lean on TSMC, Samsung for Chip Security

•   Bloomberg: Aramco’s Net-Zero Plan Will Have Net-Zero Impact Before 2035

•   Bloomberg: Companies Are Rethinking Their Supplier Networks After Covid

•   Bloomberg: Payouts Fall on Top US Power Grid in Win For Nukes, Blow to Coal

•   Bloomberg: Carbon Pricing Needs ‘Radical Redesign,’ Says Asset Owner Group

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Emmanuel Macron Wants to Pay Workers a Dividend

•   Reuters: Ukraine on course for EU candidacy at summit, EU says

•   Reuters: At Jan. 6 Capitol riot hearing, election officials tell of harassment by Trump supporters

•   Reuters: No need for highest German alert over gas supply, sector lobby says

•   Reuters: Taiwan scrambles 29 jets to warn away Chinese planes in its air defence zone

•   Reuters: Some Omicron sub-variants escaping antibodies from Sinopharm shot, Chinese study says

•   Reuters: Brazil corn exports soar as Ukrainian supplies blocked - port authority

•   Reuters: Ericsson expects 5G subscriptions to cross 1 billion in 2022

•   Reuters: Old is gold: sky-high cost of ageing ships sounds inflation SOS

•   Reuters: Analysis: Are high prices unpatriotic or as American as you can get?

•   Reuters: Analysis: Quantity over quality - China faces power supply risk despite coal output surge

•   CNBC: Elon Musk clarifies Tesla will lay off 3.5% of total workforce as ex-employees sue company

•   CNBC: Former U.S. ambassador says lifting China tariffs could slash inflation by 1% over time, help Biden in midterms

•   CNBC: Labor market ‘worse than the 1970s’ as strikes hit UK, Nobel Prize-winning economist says

•   CNBC: Inflation won’t come down anytime soon if Tuesday’s rally lasts, Jim Cramer warns

•   MarketWatch: The stock market’s big Tuesday bounce is likely to fizzle out: Capital Economics

•   SCMP: Trade war: China, US urged to ‘start small’ as Biden ponders Trump-era tariff rollback amid record inflation

•   SCMP: EU companies in China pay the price for Brussels stance on Xinjiang

•   SCMP: North Korean imports of Chinese soybeans surge as coronavirus outbreak ramps up food shortage fears

•   SCMP: China-US relations: Joe Biden’s Asia-Pacific trade framework to be handled with ‘caution’, Beijing advisers say

•   Global Times: Inside Shanghai's COVID lockdown nightmare

•   Nikkei Asia: Tokyo Olympics cost doubles to $13bn on COVID and overruns

•   Nikkei Asia: Airlines chart cautious path for Japan inbound travel recovery

•   Nikkei Asia: Inside Shanghai's COVID lockdown nightmare

•   매경(P1): 대한민국 '우주 독립'…누리호 위성 안착까지 성공

•   매경: 12년 쌓은 피 땀 눈물 우주로…누리호 2차발사 성공

•   매경: 2차 발사 뭐가 달라졌나…모사체 실었던 1차와 달리 실제 위성 탑재

•   매경: '우주강국 한국' 온누리에 알린 날…2031년 달 착륙 더 가까워졌다

•   매경: 한화가 심장 뛰게하고 현대重이 떠받치고…우리 기업 300개社 값진 보답

•   매경(P1): 생애 첫 주택 취득세 깎아주고…상생 임대인에 양도세 비과세 거주요건 완화

※   기재부: 제1차 부동산 관계장관회의 개최, 임대차 시장 안정 방안 및 3분기 추진 정상화 과제 발표

•   매경: 분양가 최고 4% 더 오른다…주택물량 확대엔 '글쎄'

•   매경: 주택규제 풀었지만…"전월세 대책, 시장 안정에 미흡"

•   매경: 집주인·세입자 모두에 稅·대출혜택…주거비 낮추기 '초점'

•   매경: 규제지역서 주담대 받을때 기존주택 2년 안에만 팔면 된다

•   매경: 10억원 넘는 집 상속받아도 5년간 종부세 1주택자 간주

•   매경(P1): [단독] 혼쭐난 한전, 최대 해외사업 '中 산시성 석탄발전' 매각 검토

•   매경: 수익 안나는데 직원 급여 두둑…추경호 "공공기관 파티 끝났다"

•   매경(P1): 도녓호앙 외국인투자청장 "베트남 정부, 韓기업에 실질적 혜택 검토"

•   매경: "韓기업은 친구이자 형제…코로나 봉쇄때도 '베트남 특별입국'"

•   매경: 삼성 DNA 심은 베트남 협력사…생산성 최대 90% 뛰어 '신바람'

•   매경: 여야, 나란히 "유류세 50% 인하"…국회 태업은 여전

•   매경: 韓, 우크라에 5천만弗 추가 지원

•   매경: "네이버가 뽑는 줄 알았네"…현대차 채용공고 80%가 SW AI

•   매경: 車업계 임단협 또 파열음…기아·한국GM 노사협상 돌입

•   매경: "시장을 주도 못하면 밀려난다"

•   매경: LG, 스타트업 기업 키워 미래 선점…물류·푸드테크 등 도전

•   매경: "한국 규제는 칸막이·귀막이·눈가림 행정"…경총, 규제개혁토론회 개최

•   매경: 카카오, 콘텐츠 이어 커머스로 해외진출

•   매경: 정제마진 급등…정유사 2분기 깜짝실적 예약

•   매경: 상장사 수주 공시금액 석달새 30% 뚝…침체 신호탄?

•   매경: "따따블 줘도 안잡혀요" 밤마다 또 택시 전쟁, 요금 최대 4배 폭증

•   한경(P1): 공장 강제로 세운 한국타이어 노조

•   한경: 화물연대 협상 타결 1주일 됐는데도…하이트진로 앞은 '파업 중'

•   한경: 수출 중소기업 61%가 "물류 차질에 경영 악화"

•   한경: 국내은행, 美보다 이자이익 의존도 2배 이상 높고…충당금은 5분의 1 수준

•   한경: 인플레 속 '뜻밖의 호재'…K배터리 웃는다

•   한경: 국내 첫 재생에너지 구독서비스…전기도 골라 쓰는 시대 열린다

•   한경: LGCNS 물류로봇 구독 서비스, AI·클라우드 결합해 선보여

•   한경: 위기의 저축은행…30일 이상 연체액, 코로나 전보다 두 배 늘었다

•   한경: 금리 뛰는데…고정금리 대출, 오히려 줄었다고?

•   한경: 자재값 폭등에…'공사비 검증요청' 역대 최대

•   한경: "임원이 성과급 결정하는 인사제도는 적법"

•   서경(P1): 勞, 내년도 최저임금 18.9% 오른 1만890원 요구

•   서경(P1): 이창용 "물가중심 통화정책"…'빅스텝'에 한발 더

※   한국은행: [보도자료] 물가안정목표 운영상황 점검

•   서경: 韓 민간부채 증가 속도, 2분기 연속 세계 3위

•   서경: ‘디지털 전환’ 올인한 LG, AI자문단·스마트공장 확대

•   서경: [단독] 금융사 없는 LG, 모건스탠리와 '동맹'

•   서경: ‘뉴딜’ 대신 ‘혁신’…文정부 색깔 빼는 벤처펀드

•   서경: "누가 지금 집 삽니까?" 아파트 매매 비중 '5%'로 추락

•   조선: 무역협회 “올해 무역적자 예상, 금융위기 이후 처음”

•   조선비즈: NHK “일본 정부, 한·미·일 정상회담 추진”…북한에 강력한 경고 메시지

•   조선비즈: 100만대 넘은 중국산 수출 자동차...獨 제치고 세계 2위

•   조선비즈: 前 IAEA사무차장 “북한, 4번갱도 핵실험 준비에 몇 달 걸릴 것”

•   조선비즈: “규제지역도 해제될까”… 이달 말 주정심에 쏠리는 시선

•   조선비즈: 경기침체 우려에 쌓이는 재고… 삼성전자, 가전·스마트폰 부품 구매 중단

•   조선비즈: 이 와중에 전기차는 달린다... 약세장 속 선방하는 전기차 배터리株

•   조선비즈: [단독] 재생에너지 비중 20%대 하향 尹정부, 국산 부품 인센티브는 대폭 늘린다

•   조선비즈: 민관 합동 ‘원전수출전략추진단’ 설치…원전 최강국 도약 본격화

•   조선비즈: [차이나 모빌리티] 작게 더 작게…中 초소형 미니 전기차 대전

•   인베스트조선: 금융 수장 교체에 인선 속도내는 기관들…하락장에 국내 주식 비중 점진적 축소

•   인베스트조선: 여의도에 뜬 검사들…"前 정권 불똥 튈라" 전수조사 나선 기관도

•   동아: 하반기 신차출시 車업계 “가격 책정 어찌할꼬”

•   동아: [단독]삼성 ‘3나노 파운드리’ 양산 미룬다

•   한국(P1): 국내 첫 원숭이두창 감염 의심자 나왔다

•   한국: [단독] 기아 내수용 전기차에 중국산 배터리 첫 장착

•   국민: 서울시 ‘모아타운’ 21곳 발표… 2026년까지 3만호 공급한다

•   국민: 겁나는 런치플레이션… 편의점서 점심 먹는 직장인 늘었다

•   국민: 배터리 신소재를 터널에 깔아?

•   서울: 尹정부, 원전 확대에… 환경단체 “핵발전 반대”

•   세계: 역대 정점 훌쩍 넘어선 밥상물가… “하반기 더 크게 오를 것”

※   한국은행: 최근 애그플레이션 현황 및 시사점

•   세계: “경제 위기 엄중”… 대기업들 총수 주도로 ‘비상경영’ 준비

•   한겨레: “초과세수 60조 작년 9월 예측가능”…기재부 ‘정치적 의도’ 주장도

•   한겨레: [단독] 삼성 등 수백조 투자 발표, 윤석열 정부와 사전 조율했다

•   머니투데이: 수소 기술, 실증하러 전국 떠돌이 "이제 규제 개혁 퀀텀점프 할 때"

•   머니투데이: '블루수소'에 이어 '핑크수소'까지…"청정수소 범위 넓혀야"

•   머니투데이: [단독] 전력도매가 상한제, 규제심사위 통과…"이익침해 안해"

•   머니투데이: [단독]"이자 늘어도 당장은 적게 갚자"…고금리에 '체증식 상환' 늘어

•   이데일리: 공공기관 대수술 예고한 尹…親文 기관장 물갈이 신호탄 되나

•   이데일리: “전기요금 정치서 독립시켜야” 尹정부 에너지 정책방향 공청회

•   이데일리: 단말기 비싸지고 서비스 없는데…과기부 ‘28GHz 5G B2C용' 논란

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국에서 8552명 확진…어제보다 234명 적어

•   연합: [특파원 인플레 보고] ①'산 넘어 산'…위기의 끝이 안보인다

•   연합: [특파원 인플레 보고] ②"월마트 패닉"…美에 닥친 '미친 인플레'

•   연합: [특파원 인플레 보고] ③고기도, 아보카도도 확 줄어든 멕시코 식탁

•   연합: [특파원 인플레 보고] ④인도, 체감물가 30%↑…"앞날이 더 걱정"

•   연합: [특파원 인플레 보고] ⑤"서민 먹거리 코샤리값도 2배로"…더 배고픈 중동

•   [특파원 인플레 보고] ⑥러 '에너지 펀치'에 유럽 "2차대전 후 최대위기"

•   연합: [특파원 인플레 보고] ⑦무디스 수석 "2024년초에나 인플레 진정 전망"

•   연합: [특파원 인플레 보고] ⑧아이컨그린 "금리인상 대가는 침체"(끝)

•   연합: 하락장서 자사주 매입 상장사 작년의 두 배…주가반등 기회될까

•   연합: 하반기 메모리반도체 가격 하락 전망 잇따라…수요 위축 우려도

※   DRAMeXchange: 【Market View】Demand Remains Weak as Inventories Continue Moving Higher, DRAM Pricing Forecast to Drop by 3~8% in 3Q22, Says TrendForce

•   연합: [초순수 국산화](상) "반도체 강국? 이 물 없으면 공염불"

•   연합: [초순수 국산화](하) 반도체 강국 젖줄…"인재 양성이 핵심"

•   전자신문(P1): 중국 파운드리 점유율 10% 돌파

•   전자신문: 南美, '친환경차' 신전장 부상…대형 투자 이어진다

•   전자신문: 중소 전기차 업체, 배터리 가격 인상에 고사 위기

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Anne O. Krueger): How to Fuel Inflation and Harm the Environment

•   Project Syndicate(Hugo Drochon): The New French Politics

•   Project Syndicate(Jean Pisani-Ferry): France’s Constitution Will Be Tested

•   FT(Editorial Board): Showdown on Britain’s railways portends a summer of strife

•   FT(Martin Wolf): The big mistakes of the anti-globalisers

•   FT(Constanze Stelzenmüller): Merkel’s lack of regrets illustrates the fallacies of Germany’s Russia policy

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Has the credit sell-off overshot?

•   FT(Eric Lonergan): Can the ECB prevent a second euro crisis?

•   FT(Lex): Germany/coal: rising emissions leave politicians doubly compromised

•   WSJ(Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.): Panic Over Gasoline Prices Only Serves Putin

•   WSJ(Seth Cropsey): How to Stop Russia’s Plan for Global Food Chaos

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Is the Era of Cheap Money Over?

•   WP(Catherine Rampell): How Biden can convince us that recession isn’t 'inevitable’

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): Biden Needs More Than Oil From Saudi Arabia

•   Bloomberg(Mihir Sharma): The Death of the WTO Has Only Been Delayed

•   Bloomberg(Anjani Trivedi): Nuclear Power Is The Future. Tiger and Bill Gates Know It

•   Bloomberg(Karl W. Smith): Biden Needs to Do More Than Just Lift Tariffs

•   Bloomberg(Zev Chafets): Biden’s Risky Trip to the Mideast Is Also Pointless

•   Bloomberg(Pankaj Mishra): India Is Following Russia Into Hyper-Nationalism

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Fed Pays Too Much Heed to 500 Random Opinions

•   Bloomberg(Richard Cookson): Why This Bear Market Is Bad for Stocks and Bonds

•   Fox Business(Larry Kudlow): Biden has chosen a radical climate agenda, rather than national energy security

•   Reuters(John Kemp): Hedge fund oil bulls checked as interest rates rise