Global Economic Monitor 220607

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks gain on improved sentiment, crude at $120

※   Countdown to raft of central bank meetings

※   Euro gains ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting

※   U.S. CPI on Friday to test thinking on Fed hikes

※   Oil firms after Saudi Arabia raises prices

•   Japan: Yen Slides to Two-Decade Low as Interest-Rate Gap Widens

•   Metals: Copper hits over 1-month high on easing curbs in China, U.S. tariff cut hopes

•   Iron ore: Iron Ore Extends Gains Above $140 on Optimism For China Demand

•   Grains: Chicago wheat futures rise 4% on Black Sea supply woes

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Reclaims $31,000 Level After Weeks of Languishing

[Indicators]

•   China May Services PMI(Caixin): China’s Holiday Spending Shows Slow Consumer Rebound Underway

•   한국 1분기 임금: 임금發 인플레…1분기 대기업 월급 13% 껑충

•   한국 5월 외환보유액: 5월말 외환보유액 4천477억달러, 16억달러↓…3개월째 감소

[News]

•   WSJ: Chernobyl Workers Pick Up the Pieces After Russian Occupation

•   WSJ: Zelensky Visits Eastern Front as Ukraine Tries to Beat Back Russian Advance

•   WSJ: U.S. Files Warrant to Seize Two Planes Owned by Russian Oligarch Roman Abramovich

•   WSJ: Turkey’s Erdogan Capitalizes on Ukraine Crisis as Grip at Home Wavers

•   WSJ: Biden Administration to Waive Solar Import Tariffs for Two Years

•   WSJ: Inflation, Political Division Put U.S. in a Pessimistic Mood, Poll Finds

•   WSJ: Russia Says U.S. Mistreats Its Journalists, Threatens Retaliation

•   WSJ: Israel’s Government Loses Parliamentary Vote, Threatening Fragile Coalition

•   WSJ: Saudi Arabia Moves Toward Eventual Ties With Israel

•   WSJ: SEC Closes In on Rules That Could Reshape How Stock Market Operates

•   WSJ: Investors Get Back Into Corporate Bonds

•   WSJ: Digital-Payments Growth Has a Ways to Run Yet

•   WSJ: Amazon’s First Stock Split Since 1999 Takes Effect

•   WSJ: Apple Unveils Installment Pay Plan, CarPlay Update in Push Beyond iPhone

※   Tech giant also introduces changes to iMessage, including an undo-send function, and new MacBook Air

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Threatens to End Twitter Deal Over Lack of Information on Spam Accounts

•   WSJ: China to Conclude Didi Cybersecurity Probe, Lift Ban on New Users

•   WSJ: Sony Aims for High-End Electric Car That Bills Extra for Entertainment

•   NYT: Russia Seeks Buyers for Plundered Ukraine Grain, U.S. Warns

•   NYT: The Potential Dark Side of a White-Hot Labor Market

•   WP: China secretly building naval facility in Cambodia, Western officials say

•   FT: Ukraine in ‘very difficult’ fight after Russia’s Donbas advance, says top security official

•   FT: LNG revolution: Germany’s plan to wean itself off Russian gas takes shape

•   FT: ECB to firm up plans to ward off bond market stress

•   FT: Weakened Johnson scrapes through after damaging confidence vote

※   Loyalists rally to British PM but Conservative party still split by rancour

•   FT: Crunch time for Johnson: ‘He is really lucky to be in a job’

•   FT: Tories descend into acrimony as Johnson fights for his political life

•   FT: Fuel shortages across Africa hit motorists, airlines and radio stations

•   FT: Gulf states condemn India’s ruling BJP over insults to Islam

•   FT: Mideast Oil Suppliers Condemn Insults on Islam by Modi’s Party

•   FT: How ESG investing came to a reckoning

•   FT: Big Tech pulls out all the stops to halt ‘self-preferencing’ antitrust bill

•   FT: The biggest ever experiment in flexible working

•   Bloomberg: Inflation Is Poised to Ease According to These Three Key Indicators

•   Bloomberg: US Trade Chief Hopes for Formal Indo-Pacific Convening by Summer

•   Bloomberg: US, Latin America Developing Migration Pact to Address Surge

•   Bloomberg: Biden Tries to Boost Solar Invoking Same Act Trump Used for Coal

※   White House: FACT SHEET: President Biden Takes Bold Executive Action to Spur Domestic Clean Energy Manufacturing

•   Bloomberg: Fed Delivers Fuzzier Rate Message as It Gauges Impact of Hikes

•   Bloomberg: Yellen Biographer Says Excerpts Mischaracterized Her Views

•   Bloomberg: Biden’s Solar Tariff Probe Sparks Concern Among US Steelmakers

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Says US Economy Remains on Narrow Path to Soft Landing

•   Bloomberg: ECB Policymakers Will Ask Lagarde to Be Tough on Fragmentation

•   Bloomberg: Marxism Makes a Comeback in China’s Crackdown on ‘Disorderly Capital’

•   Bloomberg: Beijing Opens Up Restaurants, Cinemas as China Eases Curbs

•   Bloomberg: Shanghai Trucking Shortage Gradually Eases but Hurdles Remain

•   Bloomberg: Sri Lanka President Vows to Finish Term, Won’t Run for Re-Election

•   Bloomberg: Few Market Signs Show a Recession Expected, Deutsche Bank Says

•   Bloomberg: The Worst May Be Over for China Stocks With Tech Probe’s End in Sight

•   Bloomberg: Historic Rupee Low Forecasts Grow as Oil Costs Widen Deficits

•   Bloomberg: Russia’s Crude Oil Revenues Take a Hit Even as Exports Swell

•   Bloomberg: India in Talks to Increase Russian Oil Imports From Rosneft

•   Bloomberg: Oil Tankers Make Rare Mid-Atlantic Switch of Russian Crude Cargo

•   Reuters: Battle for Ukraine's Sievierodonetsk rages through city's streets

•   Reuters: U.S. bars Cuba, Venezuela from Americas summit, Mexican leader sits out

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Michigan widens probe into voting system breaches by Trump allies

•   Reuters: Texas power use to hit record as temperatures soar

•   Reuters: Americans split on nuclear energy as safety worries linger/Ipsos poll

•   Reuters: Russia sanctions U.S. Treasury and energy secretaries, defence and media executives

•   Reuters: Latin America, Caribbean 2022 poverty seen higher as Ukraine war bites -UN study

•   Reuters: BOJ's Kuroda vows unwavering stance in keeping ultra-easy policy

•   Reuters: Famine risk rises in Somalia as rains fail, food prices soar - U.N

•   Reuters: Analysis: China's economic headwinds chill its wary new homebuyers

•   CNBC: These charts show the state of the global supply chain as China eases Covid lockdowns

•   CNBC: Housing wealth gains a record $1.2 trillion, but there are signs the market is cooling

•   CNBC: GE, Orsted and now Iberdrola: The competition to recycle wind turbine blades heats up

•   CNBC: Amazon sellers reject efforts by an executive to rally their opposition to Big Tech antitrust bill

•   Fox Business: Gas prices could reach $5 this week, expert says

•   SCMP: Analysis | How the economic slowdown and zero-Covid threaten China’s global ambitions

•   SCMP: Covid outbreak shuts down Chinese city as Beijing and Shanghai return to new normal

•   SCMP: With China’s big political reshuffle looming, new No 2 propaganda chief is appointed from party academy

•   SCMP: Analysis | How the economic slowdown and zero-Covid threaten China’s global ambitions

•   SCMP: Shanghai reopening: Tesla’s Chinese buyers face up to 24 weeks for delivery as carmaker scrambles to catch up with demand in ‘China’s Motown’

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: Chinese tourists trickle back during Dragon Boat Festival, but far short of pre-pandemic levels

•   Global Times: Japan upping ante on Taiwan question, NATO expansion causes concern in Asia-Pacific

•   Caixin: Cover Story: Balancing China’s Development With Need for Food Production

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan to keep eye on land sales near bases, nuclear plants

•   Nikkei Asia: Tension at Toshiba erupts into public as directors trade barbs

•   Nikkei Asia: Toshiba board nominees risk criticism for activist tilt: director

•   Nikkei Asia: Sony eyes 'independent' EV joint venture with Honda

•   Nikkei Asia: Beyond Sri Lanka, economic cyclone bears down on South Asia

•   매경(P1): 반도체 미래車 키울 인재...해마다 5천명 부족

•   매경: 한국은 부족한데…中 칭화대 한곳서만 반도체 인재 1천명 육성

•   매경: "정원 규제 탓…서울대 분야별 졸업생 年 30명뿐"

•   매경(P1): 내달 디폴트옵션 시행...쥐꼬리 퇴직연금 수익률 반전될까

•   매경: 디폴트옵션 자칫하면 '찻잔속 태풍'

•   매경: 적립금 300조 덩칫값 못하는 퇴직연금

•   매경(P1): 애물단지서 보물로 변신…폐플라스틱서 석유 뽑아낸다

•   매경: 세계가 주목한 토종기술…英에 '하루 5000톤 석유재생시설' 건설 추진

•   매경: 노래로 와인잔 깨듯…분자구조를 깨뜨리는 세라믹볼이 핵심기술

•   매경: [단독] 식량전쟁…위성까지 동원해 재배면적 조사

•   매경: 中企 줄파산 위기에…금융위 "금융지원 6개월 연장"

•   매경: 우주산업 주도권, 정부서 민간으로…'새 경제 생태계' 싹튼다

•   매경: 2050년 녹색투자 6조달러…기후대응 기업에 기회의 문 활짝

•   매경: 기업 살리기 외친 尹정부…그래도 기업 속타는 이유는

•   매경: 2·5·6·7·8호선, 2년만에 심야운행 재개…7일부터

•   매경: 집값 폭등에 외곽으로 밀려나는 사람들…서울시 인구 950만명도 깨졌다

•   한경(P1): '낀세대' 40대, 그들은 왜 '레프트윙어'가 됐나

•   한경(P1): '모듈러 주택'에 용적률 인센티브

•   한경: 현대ENG '한계 층수' 13층 도전…GS는 해외 전문업체 인수

•   한경: '낡은 법령' 확 바꾸고 '임시 건물' 편견 없애야

•   한경: 전기차 보험료 94만원…일반차보다 18만원 비싸

•   한경: 기본급 '묻고 더블로' 달라는 현대차 노조…IT·전자업계는 두 자릿수 인상하며 '백기'

•   한경: 경제계 "정년 보장하는 임피제는 그 자체로 정당"

•   한경: 대기업 월급 700만원 육박…경제 '악순환' 경고등 켜졌다

•   한경: 영끌·빚투 열풍 후폭풍…2030 다중채무자 급증

•   한경: 코로나 불황 직격탄에…저소득 자영업자, 빚이 年소득 7배

•   한경: 4세대 초소형모듈원전…현대ENG 세계 첫 추진

•   한경: '집 살까 말까' 잠 못드는 실수요자…전문가에 물었더니

•   한경: 환경부, '웅~' 풍력발전 소음 첫 배상 결정

•   한경: 원·달러 환율 주춤…달러예금 이탈 계속된다

•   한경: '루나 사태'로 초토화 된 암호화폐 시장…크립토윈터 닥치나

•   서경(P1): [단독] '반도체장비 1위' 美 AMAT, 韓에 R&D센터…반도체 공조 빨라진다

•   서경: [단독] 삼성-인텔 이어 '공조 2탄'…반도체 장비 빅4, 모두 韓에 거점

•   서경: 인텔, 차세대 EUV 선점…TSMC, 올 설비투자 30%↑

•   서경(P1): [단독]교육교부금 올해만 81조…재정전략회의서 손본다

•   서경: 편의점, 소주대란 우려 발주제한…화물 빼곡한 부산항 '마비 공포'

•   서경: 이념 갇힌 관치'에 성장률 2%대 추락…민간주도 액션플랜 시급

•   서경: 韓 성장 잠재력 뚝뚝…"시장경쟁 활성화하고 노동경직성은 풀어야"

•   서경: "중대법 강행에 사업 축소 고민…탄소중립도 속도 너무 빨라"

•   서경: "정부 만능의 오류 탈피…민관합동委 제안, 정책에 적극 반영을"

•   서경: 美 지원강화에 인텔 'R&D 투자 1위'…대만은 TSMC에 법인세 면제·보조금

•   서경: [단독] 尹, 이달 '규제혁신전략회의' 주재…모래주머니 제거 속도낸다

•   서경: 줄지 않은 러시아 석탄 수입량…공급중단 땐 ‘블랙아웃’ 올 수도

•   서경: 현대硏 “인플레 완화 안되면 경기침체 우려”

•   서경: 길잃은 뭉칫돈…6개월짜리 예금으로 몰린다

•   서경: 韓시장 70% 장악한 중국산 셀…한미 태양광 동맹 '복병' 되나

•   조선(P1): 전기료 폭등 보고서, 文정부 처음부터 뭉갰다

•   조선: 하루 이자 25억 한전, 빚 돌려막기도 못한다

•   조선: 文정부 임기말 전기료 10.6% 인상… 30%는 올려야할 판

•   조선: 文정부가 높인 법인세 다시 되돌린다… 상속·증여세도 완화할 듯

•   조선: 은행들, 가계대출만 금리 턱없이 높여 ‘이자 장사’

•   조선: 이건희가 獨서 “마누라 빼고 다 바꿔” 외친 날… 이재용, 유럽 출장 떠난다

•   조선: 건물주가 면접 봅니다, 강남 사무실 ‘별따기’

•   조선: 애플·삼성 꺾겠다며 승승장구하던 샤오미의 추락

•   조선비즈: 디벨로퍼로 변모하는 건설사들… “시공만으론 먹고살기 힘들다”

•   조선비즈: 반도체 전쟁 재점화, EUV 장비 확보에 사활 건 삼성·인텔

•   조선비즈: 美국무부 “북한, 조만간 7차 핵실험 나설 가능성 있어”

•   인베스트조선: 사실상 '한전 대출용'(?) 채권 찍은 산은…은행채 금리에 영향

•   중앙(P1): 남성 커트값이 2만원…서비스료도 불붙었다

•   중앙: "국밥도 만원" 런치플레이션..."나가면 10만원" 소개팅도 포기

•   중앙: 전기료 1년새 11% 상승, 공공요금발 물가 충격 가장 컸다

•   중앙: [단독] “운전자 마음 읽는다” 팀장 없이 일하는 정의선 비밀병기

•   동아(P1): 한국, 가계부채 〉GDP… 세계 36國 중 유일

•   동아: 국내 휘발유값 10년만에 L당 2030원 돌파

•   동아: “6조 적자 한전, 세계 전력社 중 수익 최대 감소”

•   동아: 위기의 면세점… 서울 시내면세점 신규 입찰에 지원 ‘0곳’[인사이드＆인사이트]

•   동아: 삼성그룹 시총 641조… 5개월새 88조 증발

•   동아: 잘나갔던 오피스텔… 올해는 26곳중 9곳 청약미달

•   동아: [단독]‘8발엔 8발’ 한미, 北에 미사일 맞불…이르면 오늘 전투기 동원 연합훈련

•   한국(P1): 北 핵실험 재개?… IAEA "풍계리서 핵실험 준비 징후 포착"

•   한국(P1): 화물연대 총파업 코앞으로... "정부, 협박 말고 협상해라"

•   서울: ‘새집 보릿고개’ 연말까지 고비…세입자 웁니다

•   서울: 게임사는 전면 출근, 빅테크는 원격근무… 엇갈리는 근무 형태

•   서울: 하늘길·가상동물원·로봇까지… 통신 3사 미래 ‘탈통신’에 걸었다

•   머니투데이(P1): 코로나 전보다 46만원 더 벌고 24만원 더 쓴다?..."평균입니다"

•   머니투데이: "코로나 덕에 '소득 불평등' 줄었다고?"...이유 알고보니

•   머니투데이: [르포]"500원이라도 올리고 싶어요"…6500원 잔치국수 분식집의 한숨

•   머니투데이: '삼성 로봇' 8월 출시 목표…"우리도 대박" 협력사 유독 들뜬 이유

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 서민·청년 대출이자 눈덩이... 저금리 지원해 안전판 마련 [금융시장 흔드는 고금리]

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): [단독] "삼성 연봉 4배 줄게"…中, 이번엔 스마트폰 인재 사냥 [김경민의 적시타]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 중국폰 '가성비'로 세계시장 야금야금 … 삼성은 불안한 1위 [경고등 켜진 휴대폰 산업]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 반도체·AI 대규모 투자 나섰지만 대기업 '고질적 인력난'에 골머리

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 韓 미사일 원하는 우크라… 정부는 무기지원 방식 고심중

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 고유가·고금리에 잘나가는 '차은정'… 직격탄 맞은 '화증' [업종별 2분기 실적 전망]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 건설자재 가격 폭등… '물가변동 배제특약' 발목 잡힌 민간공사

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 내년도 최저임금 최대 2700원 간극… 노사 치열한 기싸움

•   디지털타임스(P1): 밥상물가 1년만에 7% 급등… 더 커진 `스태그` 경고음

•   이데일리: "R&D해야 하는데"…배터리업계 인력 부족에 신음

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 5832명 확진…어제보다 1천여명 많아

•   연합: 거리두기 해제했더니 여행·교통 관련 소비 급증했다

•   전자신문(P1): 삼성 홈IoT, 英 주택에 깔린다

•   전자신문: 전력시장 재편, 18년째 `공회전`…韓 글로벌 최후진국 전락

•   전자신문: 尹정부, 전력시장 개편 추진…민영화·요금인상 우려 해소 과제

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Kenneth Rogoff): What’s the Crypto Regulation Endgame?

•   Project Syndicate(Daniel Gros): Will Europe’s Embargo on Russian Oil Succeed?

•   Project Syndicate(Sinan Ülgen): Why Turkey Is Imperiling NATO Enlargement

•   Project Syndicate(Moky Makura): How to Sell Climate Action to Africa

•   FT(Editorial Board): The ECB embraces its responsibility to keep the euro together

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): Ukraine and the start of a second cold war

•   FT(Robert Shrimsley): As bad a result for Boris Johnson as a victory can be

•   FT(Ruchir Sharma): There is another act to come in this market drama

•   WP(Matt Bai): Why losing the midterms isn’t the worst thing for Democrats

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): Brazil Points the Way Out of Inflation. Yes, You Read That Right

•   Bloomberg(Clive Crook): Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Has Unified Europe, But for How Long?

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Soft Landing for Economy

•   Bloomberg(Ramesh Ponnuru): The Fed Risks Future Pain If It Fails to Curb Inflation Today

•   Bloomberg(Therese Raphael): Boris Johnson Wins Leadership Challenge, Starts Bloody Tory Civil War

•   Bloomberg(Tim Culpan): Foxconn's EV Push Takes It Back to the Future

•   Bloomberg(Mark Gilbert): Central Bankers Don’t Know How to Tackle Inflation

•   CNN(Karin Kimbrough): LinkedIn chief economist: Gen Z should be feeling great about the job market right now

•   Fox News(Jeff Landry): This is American energy's biggest threat