Global Economic Monitor 220602

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Global equities fall despite positive U.S. economic data, dollar rises

※   All three Wall Street indexes end lower

※   Oil prices strengthen

※   Dollar index gains

※   Benchmark 10-year notes hit high

※   Safe-haven gold edges up

•   Metals: Copper rebounds as oil claws higher, Shanghai lifts curbs

•   Grains: Wheat, corn continue to fall on Ukrainian export optimism

[Indicators]

•   US Apr. Job openings: U.S. Hiring Demand Remained Strong in April

•   US Apr. Construction spending: U.S. construction spending rises modestly in April

•   US May Manufacturing PMI(ISM): US Manufacturing Growth Unexpectedly Firms on Stronger Orders

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications: Mortgage demand falls to the lowest level since the end of 2018, even as interest rates ease a bit

•   Eurozone Apr. Employment: Euro zone unemployment unchanged at record low of 6.8%

•   UK May House prices: UK housing market remains strong, Nationwide data show

•   UK May Food prices: UK Food Prices Surging Most In a Decade Signals More Pain Ahead

•   China Apr. Consumer confidence: China’s consumer sentiment hits record low, pessimistic outlook adds to calls for consumption stimulus policy

•   China May Manufacturing PMI(Caixin): China Factory Activity Falls at Slower Pace as Covid Curbs Ease

•   Japan FY 2021 tax revenue: Japan's FY 2021 tax revenue to hit record high above $502 bil.

•   Japan Q1 Capital spending: Japan's Jan.-March business investment up for 4th straight quarter

•   India May Manufacturing PMI: Factory activity steady in May as global orders rise

•   India May GST collection: Govt collects Rs 1.41 lakh crore GST in May

•   Russia Apr. GDP: Russia Economy Lurched Into Contraction In April Amid Sanctions

•   Canada Benchmark rate: Bank of Canada Raises Rates Again and Vows to Be Forceful on Inflation

•   한국 5월 무역수지: 5월 수출 역대 두번째 규모…무역수지는 두달 연속 적자

※   조선: 對중국 수출 비율, 2008년 이후 최저

•   한국 6월 소상공인 전망 경기지수: 6월 소상공인 경기전망은?…"재료비 상승에 기대감 하락"

[News]

•   WSJ: Documents Reveal Hundreds of Russian Troops Broke Ranks Over Ukraine Orders

•   WSJ: Ukraine Won’t Attack Russian Territory, Zelensky Says

※   Moscow says new arms from Washington and Europe risk direct conflict, while Kyiv says it wants weapons to free Ukrainian cities and ports

•   WSJ: Ukrainians to Have Tight Training Schedule on Advanced U.S. Rockets

•   WSJ: Russian Oil Producers Stay One Step Ahead of Sanctions

•   WSJ: U.S. Launches Initiatives to Boost Economic Ties With Taiwan

※   As tensions grow with China, the Biden administration is forging closer ties with Taiwan in areas such as trade and supply chains

•   WSJ: To Draw Asia Closer, U.S. Tries an Alternative to Traditional Trade Pacts

•   WSJ: Companies Struggle With Rising Prices, Fed’s Beige Book Says

※   Tightness in the labor market has started to ease with some hiring freezes, according to some firms

※   Fed: Beige Book - June 1, 2022

•   WSJ: James Bullard Says Fed Must Deliver Rate Hikes Expected by Markets

•   WSJ: Treasury Secretary Yellen Says She Was Wrong About Inflation

•   WSJ: Jamie Dimon Says U.S. Consumers Still Have Six to Nine Months of Spending Power

※   JPMorgan CEO warns an economic ‘hurricane’ still looms despite pandemic stimulus funds that continue to pad household finances

•   WSJ: Housing, Child Care, Utilities—Nashville Faces Exceptional Inflation Hit From All Sides

•   WSJ: Saudi Arabia Sits on Its Oil-Boom Windfall as It Seeks to Diversify Economy

•   WSJ: Main Street Investors Break Records in Rush for U.S. Government Bonds

•   WSJ: Investors Spot Bargains Among Small-Cap Stocks

•   WSJ: Record Gas Prices Hit Americans’ Start to Summer Travel Season

•   WSJ: Sheryl Sandberg Stepping Down as COO of Facebook Parent Meta Platforms

•   WSJ: Google’s Owner Paid $296,000 to a Typical Worker. Here’s What Other Firms Pay

•   WSJ: GM Plans All-Electric Buick Lineup in U.S. by 2030

•   WSJ: Baby Formula Shortage Worsens, Hitting Low-Income Families Hardest

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Tells Tesla Employees to Return to the Office

•   WSJ: Broadcom Can Avoid the Conglomerate Curse

•   WSJ: Pfizer Asks FDA to Authorize Its Covid-19 Vaccine for Children Under 5

•   NYT: From Ukraine’s Front Lines, Bravery and Wreckage

•   NYT: Putin’s Threats Highlight the Dangers of a New, Riskier Nuclear Era

•   NYT: The Middlemen at the Heart of an Oligarch-Industrial Complex

•   NYT: Biden Administration to Cut Costs for Wind and Solar Energy Projects

•   NYT: Relief, Reunions and Some Anxiety as Shanghai (Mostly) Reopens

•   WP: Why gas prices are so high - Washington Post

•   FT: Ukraine war sparks rush for potash as global food fears grow

•   FT: Global food price ‘shock’ amplifies risks for emerging markets

•   FT: Russia’s ‘failure to pay’ bond interest triggers credit default swaps

•   FT: Poland closer to EU aid as Brussels backs recovery plan despite doubts

•   FT: Croatia given green light by ECB to join euro in January

•   FT: The political cost of Boris Johnson’s zombie government

•   FT: Johnson suffers further Tory criticism of his leadership

•   FT: Denmark votes to end its EU defence opt-out

•   FT: China’s exports suffer reversal of fortune as world shakes off Covid lockdowns

•   FT: Shanghai retailers prepare for shopping spree as Covid restrictions ease

•   FT: China loosens Shanghai restrictions as economic woes mount

•   FT: Can Africa grow without fossil fuels?

•   FT: Mortgage boom as Saudis queue up to buy first homes

•   FT: Diesel and gasoline supply crunch sets off sharp rally in crude oil market

•   Bloomberg: Putin Thinks His Biggest Ally in Ukraine Is Time

•   Bloomberg: US Wavers Over Next Russia Sanctions as Fears of Divide Grow

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Daly ‘Comfortable’ Raising Rates Until Inflation Is Tamed

•   Bloomberg: Fed Hawks and Doves Stay the Course on Rate Hikes to Cool Prices

•   Bloomberg: Fed Starts Experiment of Letting $8.9 Trillion Portfolio Shrink

•   Bloomberg: Biden Sees No Quick Fix on Gas Costs, Weighs Russian Crude Price Cap

•   Bloomberg: EU Push for Partial Russian Oil Ban Delayed by Hungary’s Demands

•   Bloomberg: Half-Point ECB Hike Needed After Inflation Record, Holzmann Says

•   Bloomberg: Big ECB Hike Holzmann Wants Is Now Forecast by Deutsche Bank

•   Bloomberg: Scholz Takes on Inflation in Joint Action With Unions, Employers

•   Bloomberg: China Blasts ‘Selfish’ Japan for Claiming Vast Area of Pacific Near Taiwan

•   Bloomberg: Communist Party Expels Ex-Nanjing Chief for Faking Economic Data

•   Bloomberg: China Orders $120 Billion Credit Line for Infrastructure Growth

•   Bloomberg: China Opens Door to More New Coal Power With Minor Wording Tweak

•   Bloomberg: China Says It Will Work With Russia to Promote ‘Real Democracy’

•   Bloomberg: A Quiet Ex-Banker Shocks Markets With ‘Socialist’ Tilt in Japan

•   Bloomberg: Mexico Central Bank Cuts Growth Forecast to 2.2% for 2022

•   Bloomberg: Markets May Be Too Hawkish on ECB Tightening, RBC and Citi Say

•   Bloomberg: Russia’s Lavrov Hails OPEC+ Cooperation on Visit to Saudi Arabia

•   Bloomberg: What Exempting Russia From OPEC+ Supply Quotas May Mean for Oil

•   Bloomberg: Battery Price Increase Could Keep Electric Cars Expensive for Years

•   Bloomberg: Supply Snags Threaten EV Revolution, Top Toyota Scientist Says

•   Bloomberg: Solar Giants’ Fates May Hinge on a Fight Over 28 Millimeters

•   Bloomberg: How Supply Chain Snags Could Put the Brakes on the EV Revolution

•   Bloomberg: China Green Finance Pioneer Sees Loan Slowdown as Economy Stalls

•   Bloomberg: Will Electric Cars Take Over? They Must Sell Faster to Reach Net Zero

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Hit of Shanghai Lockdown Endures as Business Surveys the Damage

•   Reuters: China says it conducted 'readiness patrol' around Taiwan

•   Reuters: OPEC+ to stick to oil rise plan despite EU sanctions -sources

•   Reuters: Biden's approval pulls back from record low, but he remains unpopular -Reuters/Ipsos

•   Reuters: U.S. Treasury's Adeyemo says global phenomena, war driving inflation

•   Reuters: UK private sector sees scant growth ahead, CBI says

•   Reuters: BoE's Cunliffe seeing evidence of slowdown in housing market

•   Reuters: Shanghai's modest post-lockdown 'revenge spending': beauty products, bubble tea

•   Reuters: Chinese mRNA COVID booster stronger against Omicron than Sinovac shot -trial data

•   Reuters: Analysis: China's metals traders offload stockpiles as bleak demand outlook bites

•   CNN: Inflation worries are real but this isn't the 1970s

•   CNN: The next holy grail for EVs: Batteries free of nickel and cobalt

•   CNBC: Tough new sanctions on Russia could hit world oil supply and change the OPEC+ dynamic

•   CNBC: WHO says monkeypox has been spreading undetected as global cases rise to more than 550

•   MarketWatch: Exclusive: Fed’s Bostic says idea of September pause is not tied to any looming market rescue

•   Fox Business: Climate expert on 'problems' with Biden administration's renewable energy push

•   SCMP: Developing | Shanghai ends lockdown: stock market wavers as traffic and commuters return in China’s commercial hub after two-month hiatus

•   SCMP: Chinese scientists produce world’s first pigs cloned entirely by robot

•   SCMP: US-Taiwan trade initiative signals a shift in approach, analysts say

•   SCMP: UN human rights chief’s report into Xinjiang faces further delays

•   SCMP: Shanghai reopening: small businesses roll up sleeves to rebuild after lockdown, counting losses and working towards new ‘normal’

•   SCMP: China to expand climate-related stress testing of banks, central bank chief Yi Gang says

•   SCMP: As the US and Europe recover, can China save its coronavirus-hit aviation sector?

•   SCMP: China should give up ‘illusion’ of avoiding US rivalry, Beijing think tank says

•   Caixin: China Scales Back Its Target for Renewable Energy Through 2025

•   Nikkei Asia: Kubota to roll out first fuel cell tractor in 2025, eyeing U.S. and Europe

•   Nikkei Asia: U.S. faces uphill battle to place ground-based missiles in Asia

•   Nikkei Asia: Taiwan, EU to boost economic ties to secure chip availability

•   Nikkei Asia: Apple to shift iPad capacity to Vietnam amid China supply chain woes

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Premier Li's economic rebuild has a dangerous precedent

•   매경(P1): 지방권력도 '교체'…민심은 野 심판했다

•   매경(P1): 집값 급등하면 공시가 인상 늦춘다…사실상 보유세 감면

•   매경: 산업부 찾아간 발전社 "SMP 상한제 철회를"

•   매경: "내년 건보료 오를 듯"…건강보험 의료수가 1.98% 인상 영향

•   매경: 기업 지배구조 의무공시 올 상장사 130개社 늘어

•   매경: [Issue&Biz] 자동화 했더니 업무량·비용 증가…'표준화' 놓치셨군요

•   한경: "탈원전이 낳은 신재생 카르텔"…에너지건물 인증, 4곳이 수백억 독식

•   한경: 최태원 점검 앞두고…사업재편 분주한 SK

•   서경: SMR 예타 통과했지만…예산은 1840억 ‘싹둑’

•   서경: [단독] 이재용 '선밸리 모임' 참석 가닥…6년 만에 글로벌 네트워크 재가동

•   서경: 이재용 주식평가액, 올들어 1.1조원 증발

•   조선(P1): [NOW] “한국 관광비자 받자” 日 밤샘 장사진

•   조선: 기업들 재택근무 방식 변경하자… 직원 “겉만 자율, 속은 감시” 반발

•   조선: [단독] 버티던 통신 3사, 정부에 5G 중간요금제 ‘수용’ 의견 전달

•   조선: 10대그룹 직원 100만명인데… 40만명 신규 채용?

•   조선: 서학개미 15兆 짝사랑… 순매수 톱10 모두 ‘마이너스’

•   조선비즈: [BOK이슈] “물가 7월까지 5%대”…하반기 물가 더 오른다고 본 이유는

•   조선비즈: 車 다음은 스마트폰, 디스플레이 필수 반도체 수급난 시작됐다

•   중앙: 17조 사모으더니…동학개미 1조 팔았다

•   동아: 美 “中기업 제재, 동맹과 조율” 韓에 수출통제 동참요구 가시화

•   동아: 항공업계 “최대 취항국 ‘중국 하늘길’ 언제 열리나”… 시름 깊어진다

•   서울: 1인 가구 주거비 큰 부담… 소비지출 중 21% ‘최고’

•   한겨레: 주택담보대출 50년 ‘영끌’ 계산하면…2030은 집 살 수 있을까?

•   머니투데이(P1): "경기 꺾인다"…정부도 올해 '3% 성장' 목표 공식 포기한다

•   머니투데이: 수소법 통과에 지방선거도 마무리···업계 '기대감 증폭'

•   머니투데이: "납품업체 탄소배출량까지…" ESG 공시 부담에 떠는 기업들

•   파이낸셜뉴스: '반도체 빅2' 역대급 실적… 상장사 3분의 1은 마이너스 성장

•   디지털타임스: 농약 뿌리고 온·습도 조절까지… 로봇이 알아서 `척척`

•   디지털타임스: 단결정 합성… 고집적 반도체 나온다

•   디지털타임스: 현대·삼성重,선가 상승에 "올해만 버티자"

•   이데일리: 갈 길 먼 탄소감축…원전 재개까지 빈자리, 풍력이 채울까

•   이데일리: '갤럭시 Z4' 기대감 커지는데…삼성 마냥 웃을 수 없는 이유

•   이데일리: ‘로또청약’ 사라진다…'내집마련' 꿈 멀어지는 무주택자

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 9693명 확진…어제보다 5529명 적어

•   연합: 20대 기업 현금성 자산 226조원…삼성전자 124조원

•   전자신문: 현대차, '수소 고속버스' 양산 초읽기

•   전자신문: '초거대 AI' 개발 나선 통신사…3社3色 비즈니스 모델 눈길

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Jens van ‘t Klooster): The ECB’s Interest-Rate Balancing Act

•   Project Syndicate(Andrés Velasco): Rebranding the West

•   Project Syndicate(Andrew Sheng, Xiao Geng): War and Peace After China’s Great Transformation

•   Project Syndicate(Josep Borrell): Getting Serious About European Defense

•   FT(Editorial Board): Sri Lanka’s problems are an alarm call for emerging markets

•   FT(Robin Harding): Electric vehicles accelerate China’s looming dominance as a car exporter

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Why Europe’s inflation is different

•   FT(Kana Inagaki): Kishida capitalises on changing mood to shift Japan’s stance on defence

•   FT(Claire Jones): Global rate gaps loom large for investors

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Europe Hits Putin Where It Hurts

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The European Bank of Inflation

•   WSJ(James Freeman): Yellen Admits Inflation Error

•   NYT(Joseph R. Biden Jr.): What America Will and Will Not Do in Ukraine

•   NYT(Edward Niedermeyer): When Elon Musk Dreams, His Employees Have Nightmares

•   NYT(Susannah Patton): China Is Winning in Asia. Biden’s Plans Won’t Change That.

•   WP(Editorial Board): Biden set clear goals for Ukraine. That could hold the West together.

•   WP(Editorial Board): Biden is finally getting honest about inflation

•   WP(David Ignatius): MBS stands on the verge of getting what he wants

•   WP(Jennifer Rubin): The good, the bad and the ugly of Biden’s inflation plan

•   WP(Charles Lane): One cheer for inflation — but only one

•   Bloomberg(Mohamed A. El-Erian): Don’t Wish for the Fed to Pause Rate Hikes in September

•   Bloomberg(Bill Dudley): Federal Reserve's Mild Inflation Forecasts Need Explaining

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): Who's to Blame for a Recession, Biden or Powell?

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Buying the Bond Dip? Don't Confuse Tactics With Strategy

•   Bloomberg(Robert Burgess): The Red-Hot US Labor Market Is Suddenly Not

•   Bloomberg(Karl W. Smith): Biden’s Economic Hubris Gives Way to Humility

•   Bloomberg(Leonid Bershidsky): Is Breaking Up Russia the Only Way to End Its Imperialism?

•   Fox News(Fred Keller): It's time to unleash oil and natural gas drilling in the US