Global Economic Monitor 220617

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street plunges as recession fears grow

※   All 11 S&P sectors lower

※   Growth stocks tumble

※   Defensive names resist selling pressure

※   Dow down 2.42%, S&P 500 down 3.25%, Nasdaq down 4.08%

•   Metals: Demand headwinds hit prices of industrial metals

•   Grains: Chicago grains firm as heat threatens crops

•   한국: 코스피 2,450대 강보합 마감…FOMC 불확실성 해소에도 상승 제한

•   한국: 원·달러 환율은 하락…1달러 1285원

[Indicators]

•   US Q2 GDP Nowcast: US economy headed for imminent recession, Fed GDP tracker shows

•   US May Housing starts: US Housing Starts Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: US Jobless Claims Edge Lower, Reflecting Tight Labor Market

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates(Freddie Mac): Mortgage Rates Hit 5.78%, Highest Level Since 2008

•   UK Benchmark rate: Bank of England raises interest rates by 0.25 percentage points

※   Policymakers warn inflation will hit 11% but gradual approach contrasts with Fed

※   BoE: Bank Rate increased to 1.25% - June 2022

•   China May House prices: China Home Prices Drop for Ninth Month as Demand Stays Weak

•   China May Fiscal account: China Budget Income Shrinks 33% in May on Tax Rebates

•   Japan May Balance of trade: Japan posts biggest trade deficit in more than 8 years for May

•   Argentina Benchmark rate: Argentina hikes interest rate 300 basis points as inflation spirals

•   한국 4월 재정수지: 국가채무 1천조원 넘어섰다…나라살림 적자 40조원 육박

•   한국 4월 은행 원화대출 연체율: 4월 은행 대출 연체율 0.23%… 소폭 올라

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): 서울 집값 3주째 내려…노원·성북구 등 가파른 하락

[News]

•   WSJ: Rising Interest Rates Could Cool Industrial Investment, Executives Say

•   WSJ: By Design, the Fed May Be Tightening Too Much

•   WSJ: U.S. Economic Growth Shows Signs of Slipping

※   Recession fears creep in as key sectors such as housing and consumer spending succumb to high inflation and rising interest rates

•   WSJ: What Is a Recession and Are We in One Now?

•   WSJ: Energy Price Surge Threatens U.N. Climate Pledge

•   WSJ: Central Bankers Could Derail the Rally in Oil and Gas

•   WSJ: Asia Will Feel the Fed’s Wrath, Too

•   WSJ: Russia Slashes Gas Flows, Aiming Economic Weapon at Europe

•   WSJ: How Germany Took Over Russia’s Vast Gas-Trading Empire

•   WSJ: In Ukraine War, Global Arms Market Emerges as a New Front

•   WSJ: Sanctions So Far Fail to Dent Russia’s War Effort

•   WSJ: Turkey, U.N. Eye Sea Lane for Grain Through Ukraine’s Mines

•   WSJ: U.S. Secretly Reviews Israel’s Plans for Strikes Against Iranian Targets in Syria

•   WSJ: Investors Bet One of the Biggest Trades on Wall Street Will Unwind

•   WSJ: Three Money Mistakes to Avoid in a Bear Market

•   WSJ: Celsius Is Crashing, and Crypto Investors Are Spooked

•   WSJ: High U.S. Fuel Exports Are Contributing to $5-a-Gallon Gas

•   WSJ: For Banks, a Faster Fed Isn’t Better

•   WSJ: Tesla Raises Prices Amid Surging Costs

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Expected to Reiterate Desire to Own Twitter in Meeting Thursday

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Talks Free Speech, Content Moderation, Remote Work in Twitter Employee Meeting

•   WSJ: Some SpaceX Employees Criticize Elon Musk’s Behavior in Letter

•   WSJ: Car Shoppers Seeking More Fuel-Efficient Vehicles Come Up Empty

•   WSJ: Amazon CEO Andy Jassy’s First Year on the Job: Undoing Bezos-Led Overexpansion

•   WSJ: BHP Scraps Immediate Thermal-Coal Exit

•   NYT: Interest Rates Rise Around the World, as War and High Inflation Grind On

•   NYT: Where Are the Delivery Drones?

•   WP: China on wrong side of history for backing Russian interests amid war, U.S. warns

•   WP: Russian army ramps up recruitment as steep casualties thin the ranks

•   FT: European leaders back Ukraine’s bid to apply for EU membership

※   France, Germany, Italy and Romania support move but say ‘profound reforms’ needed to fight corruption

•   FT: Germans told to conserve energy as Russia cuts gas flows to Europe

•   FT: Germany spars with ECB over bond market risks

•   FT: WHO set to back use of Covid variant-specific vaccines as third shot

•   FT: US fears ban on insuring Russian tankers will drive up oil prices

•   FT: Europe will fail to hit clean hydrogen targets without approval of projects

•   FT: Spain bets green hydrogen will be more than a bubble

•   FT: How French politics put personality ahead of party

•   FT: What crisis? Inflation and EU funds help Italy’s debt to ‘fall like a rock’

•   FT: Transport secretary warns UK rail strikes risk thousands of job losses

•   FT: Will the real net zero please stand up?

•   FT: Pandemic dividend fades into a distant memory for ecommerce

•   Bloomberg: Biden-Xi Call Is Under Consideration Amid US-China Tensions

※   Two leaders last spoke in March after invasion of Ukraine

•   Bloomberg: Biden Plans to Launch a G7 Global Infrastructure Push to Counter China

•   Bloomberg: China, Russia Give Differing Accounts of Xi-Putin Phone Call

•   Bloomberg: Consumer Spending Is Running Out Of Steam and the Market Isn’t Ready For It

•   Bloomberg: What’s Stagflation, and Why Is It Such a Worry Now?

•   Bloomberg: White House Mulls Fuel Export Limits as Pump Prices Surge

•   Bloomberg: Biden Takes Swing at Inflation, Signs Law to Cut Shipping Rates

•   Bloomberg: Higher Heat and US Midwest Drought Are Forecast for US Summer

•   Bloomberg: Fed to Lose Money Next Year as It Raises Rates, Dudley Says

•   Bloomberg: We’re Seeing in Real Time Why We Don’t Build Enough Homes

•   Bloomberg: Germany Tells EU to Prepare for Escalated Brexit Feud With UK

•   Bloomberg: Lagarde Tells Ministers ECB Plans for Limit on Bond Spreads

•   Bloomberg: Retiring Older Workers Pose ‘Substantial’ Threat To UK Economy

•   Bloomberg: China’s Zero-Covid Policy to Stay Into 2023, US Envoy Says

•   Bloomberg: Japan Seeing Few Visitors One Week After Wary Border Reopening

•   Bloomberg: Slow Monsoon Progress in June May Delay Sowing of Crops in India

•   Bloomberg: Yen’s Freefall Triggers Rush to Buy Among Asia’s Amateur Traders

•   Bloomberg: BOJ Faces $200 Billion+ Hit If It Loses Control of the Curve

•   Bloomberg: BOE’s Inflation Pledge Helps Boost Pound After Bruising Year

•   Bloomberg: India Proposes Settling Russia Trade in Rupees as Purchases Rise

•   Bloomberg: Russian Coal Miners Turn to India as War Upends Commodity Flows

•   Bloomberg: NTT Data Teaming Up With Toyota for Overseas Connected-Cars Push

•   Bloomberg: China’s No. 2 Online Mall Sees Slow Consumer Recovery

•   Bloomberg: Americans Have an Uneasy Feeling, and Inflation Is a Big Reason Why

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Ukraine War Causes Palm Oil Usage Jump

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Russia says it is assisting exports of Ukrainian foodstuffs via Azov Sea

•   Reuters: Beijing declares initial COVID victory as bar-linked surge eases

•   Reuters: India's economic prospects firm despite global headwinds, says RBI

•   Reuters: Japanese PM Kishida's support edges down, voters critical about rising prices

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE More than 80% of Japanese firms back nuclear restart, tourism resumption

•   Reuters: Russia could continue OPEC+ cooperation beyond 2022 -deputy PM

•   Reuters: TSMC says it will have advanced ASML chipmaking tool in 2024

•   Reuters: Analysis: Overlapping rules to curb greenwashing may only add to company frustration

•   Reuters: Analysis: Blown off course again, Fed policymakers see near-record uncertainty

•   Reuters: Analysis: Why us? Italy seeks way out of low-wage economy trap

•   Reuters: Analysis: Investors brace for recession, more market turmoil after Fed's supersized hike

•   Reuters: Analysis: Investors worry that U.S. profit forecasts are too high

•   Reuters: Analysis: Market meltdown lays bare Europe's divisions

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. crypto-lending firms likely to see greater regulation after Celsius troubles

•   Reuters: Analysis: Bond vigilantes and the BOJ are breaking Japan's bond market

•   Reuters: Analysis: Markets suspect new ECB tool to address bond stress could mimic old tools

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. states take center stage in battles for control over social media

•   AP: AP Interview: Biden says a recession is ‘not inevitable’

•   CNN: The best cure for high gas prices could be -- high gas prices

•   CNBC: A shallow recession is on the way, strategists warn. Here’s how it could play out

•   CNBC: Everyone knows inflation is on fire. This is what’s really fueling it

•   CNBC: How President Biden’s Ocean Reform Act could impact shipping and inflation

•   MarketWatch: Wall Street is officially in a bear market — What strategists say investors should do

•   Fox Business: ExxonMobil hits back after Biden threatens energy producers

•   Fox Business: Crypto selling platforms fear financial 'implosion' from persistent 'selling pressure,' says expert

•   SCMP: Western-style democracy behind wars, chaos and human misery, Chinese president tells top officials

•   SCMP: Taiwan admits paying American lobbyists to help establish closer US ties amid rising pressure from Beijing

•   SCMP: China debt holdings slashed by over 100 billion yuan in May, Beijing eager to ‘safeguard’ currency

•   SCMP: China vows private firms will receive ‘equal treatment’ in charm offensive to prop up struggling sector

•   SCMP: US, China economic policies like night and day as Fed pushes interest rate skyward and PBOC eyes stabilisation

•   SCMP: Explainer | Why is China’s inflation rate low compared to the US, Europe and Britain?

•   SCMP: China’s youth league to tackle graduate job pressure with advice, aid and a chance to ‘toughen’ up

•   Caixin: Covid Shocks Cut China’s Power Consumption for Second Month

•   Nikkei Asia: Toshiba, Sony lose court fight against EU cartel fine

•   Nikkei Asia: From chemicals to gases, chip suppliers reel as materials prices surge

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan's elderly homeowners grapple with inflation and prejudice

•   Japan Times: Weak currency may be existential threat to iconic ¥100 shops

•   매경(P1): 1주택 종부세 14억까지 비과세…9만명 혜택

•   매경(P1): 文정부때 올린 법인세율 25%…22%로 낮춘다

※   기재부: 「새정부 경제정책방향」 발표

•   매경: 尹, 경제 활력 위해…소주성 지우고 민주성 시동

•   매경: 공정거래법 형벌 줄여 기업인 부담 덜어준다

•   매경: 원전, 온실가스감축 핵심축으로…2030년까지 10기 수출 재확인

•   매경: 주식·펀드 금융투자세 2년 유예…주식양도세는 사실상 폐지

•   매경: 尹 "기업인 연락달라…도시락 먹으며 경제논의"

•   매경: 물가 비상에…유류세 인하 연말까지 연장

•   매경: 1주택자 한숨 돌리겠네…마래푸 30평 올해는 종부세 안낸다

•   매경: 연봉 1억 맞벌이 숨통…생애 첫 주택 대출 6억까지 확대

•   매경: 추가대책 기대하는 다주택자, 매물 쉽게 안 던질 수도

•   매경: 올 3%대 성장 물 건너가…물가상승 전망은 4.7%

•   매경: 재정·통화 수장 긴급회의 "복합위기 지속…물가 총력대응"

•   매경: 7월 한은 '0.5%P 빅스텝' 에도…"한미 금리역전은 시간문제"

•   매경: 野, 이번엔 '예산완박'…尹정부 예산권 견제

•   매경: 원희룡 "안전운임 지속…勞편향 구조는 바꿔야"

•   매경: 한은, 총재 권한 줄이고 소통 늘린다…3년만에 인사혁신방안 내놔

•   매경: 시스템반도체·AI·2차전지…7년 후엔 인력 9만명 부족

•   매경: LNG선 값 껑충…K조선 '저가수주' 탈출 청신호

•   매경: 가전시장 인플레 한파…패널 재고 쌓인다

•   매경: "메타버스는 강력한 도구이자 기회" 루이비통도 '웹3.0' 진출

•   매경: "차와 통신이 24시간 연결되는 시대 열려…스마트폰 도입때와 비슷"

•   매경: 발사연기 누리호…또 산화제탱크에 발목

•   매경: 선박건조 고위험 작업…스마트 로봇에 맡긴다

•   매경: 증시 전문가 83% "내달말 FOMC까지 코스피 박스권 장세"

•   매경: 코스피 제조업체, 영업활동 현금흐름 70% 줄어

•   매경: LG 삼성 '기술유출' 7년 전쟁, 무죄로 끝나

•   매경: 법원 "정년연장형 임금피크제는 가능"

•   매경: [빅데이터로 본 재테크] 테슬라 덕 좀 보자…삼성전기·LG이노텍 카메라모듈 공급 기대

•   한경(P1): "한 달 만에 이럴 줄은"…3억 빌리려고 은행 갔다가 한숨

•   한경(P1): 정년 늘린 임피제…법원 "차별 아니다"

•   한경: 野가 반대하면 윤석열 정부 경제정책 막힐 수도

•   한경: '연금개혁'은 밑그림도 못 내놔…내년 하반기에나 손댄다는 정부

•   한경: 방만한 교육교부금 '반쪽 개편'…내국세 연동 비율 그대로 둔다

•   한경: [단독] 진격의 삼성SDI…'테슬라 배터리' 만든다

•   한경: 파라마운트 손잡은 티빙…넷플릭스와 정면승부

•   한경: 5G 가입 증가율 주춤하자…가성비폰 꺼내든 통신 3사

•   한경: "티익스프레스, 줄 안 서고 1분컷"…에버랜드 메타버스 가보니 [정지은의 산업노트]

•   한경: 투자심리 위축에도…부동산 조각투자는 완판 행진

•   한경: 파업에 원자재난 겹쳐…재고·한숨만 쌓이는 제조 中企

•   한경: 쏟아지는 반대매매…하루 315억 강제청산

•   서경(P1): "韓기업, 1조弗 우주경제 중심에 선다" [서울포럼 2022]

•   서경: "韓, 日 우주산업 따라잡으려면 5년간 20조는 쏟아 부어야"

•   서경: "인류, 늦어도 8년안에 화성 간다"

•   서경: 중기 외상값 즉시 현금화 한다…대한상의, 국민 제안 아이디어 첫 실현

•   조선: 성장전략 짜던 CEO들 “생존전략으로 바꿔라”

•   조선: [단독]네이버의 新복지... 도쿄 워케이션서 ‘일과 휴식’, 임신하면 수당도

•   조선: 집값 꺾이고 물가 뛰는데… ‘조정대상지역’ 얼마나 풀까

•   조선: 21일 전월세 대책

•   조선: 코로나 2년, 줄어든 근로시간이 이젠 ‘권리’가 되었다

•   조선: “10년쯤 후의 양자 컴퓨터 기술, 가상화폐도 훔칠 수 있을 것”

•   조선: 신재생 에너지 최대 약점인 저장 문제… 콘크리트 ‘중력 전지’로 푼다

•   조선비즈: ‘15억 초과 아파트, 주택담보대출 금지’ 위헌일까 아닐까… 헌재서 공개변론

•   조선비즈: 최저임금 업종별 구분 적용 안 해… 반대 16표·찬성 11표

•   조선비즈: 요즘 전기차, 보조금 맞추려 ‘5490만원’… 부족한 옵션은 불만

•   조선비즈: 철강업계, 내수 부진에 2분기 주춤… 수출이 버팀목

•   조선비즈: 국제선 정상화에도 여전히 비싼 항공권… “7월부터 하락”

•   조선비즈: SWOT으로 본 尹정부 첫 경제정책…”친기업 규제 완화는 강점, 장기 비전은 미흡”

•   인베스트조선: 기업 내부에선 누가 ‘ESG’를 좋아할까

•   중앙: ‘코로나 확진자 7일 격리’ 유지 가닥…오늘 중대본 회의서 발표

•   중앙: 풍계리 3번 이어 4번 갱도 움직임…북, 연쇄 핵실험 하나

•   중앙: 전세 역전하더니…월세시대 급가속, 경기 양주는 70.7%

•   동아: 14시 퇴근, 재택하는 워킹맘… 기업들 “저출산 극복”

•   한국: 아이폰, 일본서 제일 싸다... 급속한 엔저로 '싼 일본' 가속화

•   국민: 갤럭시 삼총사에 밀려난 FE 결국 3년만에 단종 되나

•   국민: “어디든 맡겨만 주세요” 거리로 나간 ‘서빙로봇’

•   서울: 시속 1000㎞ 달리는 꿈의 열차… 2년내 ‘하이퍼튜브’ 개발 시동

•   세계(P1): 한전, 3분기 전기료 인상안 정부에 제출… kWh당 최대 3원

•   머니투데이(P1): [단독]"짜고 가격 올려?"...공정위, 물가 띄우는 담합 집중 단속

•   머니투데이: [단독]건설현장 또 멈추나, 레미콘 운송거부 '최후통첩'

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "에너지 불확실성 커져… 원가 연동제 시급"

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 경기 둔화에 전자제품 수요 ‘뚝’… MLCC·LCD 쌓이는 재고

•   아시아경제(P1): "집·코인·주식에 '몰빵'하다 월급은 은행으로" [이자푸어 시대]

•   디지털타임스: "석탄발전·인권문제 있는데"… 韓시장 40% 차지하는 中 태양광

•   이데일리(P1): [ESF 2022]“韓, 글로벌 ‘넷제로게임’ 이길 수 있다”

•   이데일리: [ESF 2022]"美·EU보다 제조업 비중 높은 韓, 탄소중립 속도 조절해야"

•   이데일리(P1): [단독]수출입은행, 현대-삼성 1조 사우디 프로젝트에 금융지원

•   이데일리: 中 배터리 추격에...국내 배터리3사, '차세대 전략'으로 대응

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국에서 6811명 확진…어제보다 802명 적어

•   뉴스1: [단독]尹정부 초대 통상본부장, WTO 각료회의 '종료' 전 귀국…또 '통상전쟁'?

•   전자신문(P1): [단독]SKT, 5G 중간요금 5만9000원 이하·21GB 이상 제시

•   전자신문(P1): 국가 물류정책 '산업물류에서 생활물류로 확대'

•   전자신문: "6G 시대 잡아라"…이통3사, 저궤도 위성통신 기술 확보 '사활'

•   전자신문: 산업부 규제위, 17일 'SMP 상한제' 심사…업계 "편향 우려"

•   전자신문: MCU 공급 부족에 판매단가 상승…상위 5개사 실적 '날개'

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Mauricio Cárdenas): Today’s Crises Are Different

•   Project Syndicate(Jayati Ghosh): Let’s Count What Really Matters

•   Project Syndicate(Rushad Nanavatty, Sheila Aggarwal-Khan): Cooling the Hottest Cities

•   Project Syndicate(Ahunna Eziakonwa, Maxwell Gomera): Africa Needs Carbon Markets

•   FT(Edward Luce): Democrats have stopped listening to America’s voters

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): Central banks find their mettle in the fight against inflation

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Fed smash!

•   FT(Lex): Emerging markets: rising rates will add to debt pressures

•   FT(Lex): Stagflation: one-fifth of European stocks would enter danger zone

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Slouching Toward Inflation Reality

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Is $6 a Gallon Gasoline Next?

•   WSJ(Joseph C. Sternberg): The Very Preventable Economic Disaster Overtaking Britain

•   WSJ(M. Todd Henderson): How the Future of Derivatives Markets Can Benefit Farmers

•   NYT(Farhad Manjoo): Crypto, Houses, Sneakers, Rolexes: How FOMO Drove the Economy

•   WP(Editorial Board): As Russia advances, U.S. and Europe must redouble aid to Ukraine

•   WP(Jennifer Rubin): Inflation is a worldwide problem — with little immediate relief in sight

•   WP(Josh Rogin): China’s military expansion is reaching a dangerous tipping point

•   WP(Fareed Zakaria): It’s time to start thinking about the endgame in Ukraine

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): Biden Should Show Iran What ‘Plan B’ Looks Like

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): Jay Powell Took Ben Bernanke's Advice a Bit Too Far

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): So Now We Have Clarity. The World Has Changed

•   Bloomberg(Mark Gilbert): Bank of England Joins the Scream-If-You-Wanna-Hike-Faster Gang

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Powell Is Losing His Post-Meeting Stock Touch

•   Bloomberg(Matt Levine): Private Markets Will Pump the Oil

•   CNN(Desmond Lachman): The Fed's latest rate hike will be a disaster for the economy