Global Economic Monitor 220630

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: S&P 500 limps to slightly lower close as quarter-end looms

※   U.S. economy contracted in Q1; consumer spending revised lower

※   General Mills rises as sales beat on higher prices

※   Bed Bath & Beyond replaces CEO, shares tumble

※   Dow up 0.27%, S&P down 0.07%, Nasdaq off 0.03%

•   Japan: Yen briefly dips into 137-range against dollar for fresh 24-year low

•   Metals: Copper prices hover near 16-month lows on demand fears

•   Grains: Chicago spot corn, soybean futures extend gains ahead of key USDA report

•   한국: 코스피 또 2,400선 무너져…환율 다시 1,300원 눈앞

•   한국: 현대차·기아, 獨사무소 압수수색 소식에 5% 미끄럼

•   한국: LG엔솔 美공장 재검토 소식에… 배터리 업종 동반 급락

[Indicators]

•   US Q1 GDP(final): U.S. GDP’s Early 2022 Dip Was Bigger Than Previously Thought

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications(MBA): Mortgage demand stalls again, even as interest rates swing briefly lower

•   Eurozone Jun. Economic sentiment: Eurozone Economic Sentiment Declines in June

•   Germany Jun. CPI: German Inflation Eases on Temporary Government Relief Measures

•   Japan May Retail sales: Japan May retail sales rise faster than expected as COVID curbs ease

•   한국 상반기 직종별 사업체 노동력: 구인난 허덕이는 뿌리산업…인력 미충원율 30% 웃돌아

•   한국 5월 무역지수 및 교역조건: 5월 수입금액지수 1년 전보다 32%↑…국제유가 급등 영향

•   한국 5월 주택통계: 전월세 거래서 월세 비중 한달새 50.4→59.5%…서울 미분양 2배↑

•   한국 5월 지가: 땅값 다시 들썩인다…3개월째 상승폭 커져

•   한국 6월 은행 가계대출 잔액: 치솟는 금리, 가계대출 반년째 줄어들었다

•   한국 6월 BSI·ESI: 물가·경기 우려에 기업 체감경기 3개월 만에 나빠져

[News]

•   WSJ: U.S. to Ramp Up Military Presence in Europe to Counter Russia

※   New troops and weapons are part of NATO’s response to the war in Ukraine, including the first permanent U.S. troops to Poland

•   WSJ: Ukraine, Russia Exchange Prisoners as War Grinds On

•   WSJ: Russia’s War in Ukraine Drives Gains in NATO Weaponry

•   WSJ: In New Poll, 89% of Ukrainians Reject Ceding Land to Reach Peace With Russia

•   WSJ: Ukraine’s War of Attrition Exacts Heavy Toll on Both Sides

•   WSJ: Powell Says Fed Must Accept Higher Recession Risk to Combat Inflation

※   Federal Reserve is raising interest rates at aggressive pace as price pressures hit 40-year high

•   WSJ: Loretta Mester Says Fed Is on Track for 0.75-Point July Rate Hike

•   WSJ: Gas Prices Test American Appetite for New Cold War With Russia

•   WSJ: Russia’s Surprising Economic Headache: A Strong Ruble

•   WSJ: Iran, U.S. Nuclear-Deal Talks End Without Progress

•   WSJ: For India’s and Japan’s Green Ambitions, the Heat Is On

•   WSJ: CEO Stock Sales Raise Questions About Insider Trading

•   WSJ: DeFi’s Existential Problem: It Only Lends Money to Itself

•   WSJ: Grocery, Restaurant Executives See Inflation Altering Consumer Spending

•   WSJ: The iPhone Turns 15 Today. Here’s How It Changed Us.

•   WSJ: Tech Giants Pour Billions Into AI, but Hype Doesn’t Always Match Reality

•   WSJ: European, U.S. Groups Plan Salvo of Privacy Complaints Against Google

•   WSJ: FCC Member Calls On Apple, Google to Banish TikTok

•   WSJ: Ford’s Talk of New EV-Selling Rules Rattles Some Dealers

•   NYT: A President Untethered

•   NYT: Why do Finland and Sweden appear headed toward swift NATO membership while Ukraine isn’t?

•   NYT: Liquefied Natural Gas Comes to Europe’s Rescue. But for How Long?

•   WP: Companies in China are aiding Russia’s military, U.S. alleges

※   Commerce Department adds the firms to a trade blacklist, saying their contracts to supply Russia violate export controls

•   FT: EU states agree deal to push for tougher climate measures

•   FT: UK plans to cut pipelines to EU if Russia gas crisis intensifies

•   FT: UK imposes sanctions on Russian oligarch Vladimir Potanin

•   FT: UK to suffer high inflation longer than other nations, warns Bailey

•   FT: China’s Marxism majors prosper amid labour market woes

•   FT: Ships going dark: Russia’s grain smuggling in the Black Sea

•   Bloomberg: Export Controls ‘Matter More Than Ever,’ US Commerce Chief Raimondo Says

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Inflation Fight Made Tougher by State Relief Efforts

•   Bloomberg: Biden’s Oil-Gas Lease Plan Challenged by Environmental Groups

•   Bloomberg: ECB Gets Inflation Whiplash as Spain at 10%, Germany Slows

•   Bloomberg: ECB to Avoid Bond Targets or Thresholds in First Line of Defense

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Wunsch Says Government Aid May Spell More Rate Hikes

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Simkus Wants Half-Point July Hike as Option If Data Worsen

•   Bloomberg: EU’s Sefcovic Says He Won’t Contemplate Hard Border in Ireland

•   Bloomberg: New BOE Policy Maker Prefers Gradual Approach to Rate Rises

•   Bloomberg: Macron’s Push to Fasttrack Coalition Talks Makes Little Headway

•   Bloomberg: European Power Jumps as Low Wind Is Exacerbating Energy Crisis

•   Bloomberg: EU Gets Landmark Deal to Phase Out Combustion Engine by 2035

•   Bloomberg: German Industry Sees Supply-Chain Snarls Lasting Well Into 2023

•   Bloomberg: China’s Easier Travel Rules Are Still the World’s Toughest

•   Bloomberg: China Has Quietly Cemented Lockdown Rules as It Eases Quarantine

•   Bloomberg: Xi Warns Against ‘Herd Immunity,’ Vows to Stick With Covid Zero

•   Bloomberg: Economists See China Keeping Covid Zero Despite Quarantine Cut

•   Bloomberg: Marcos Poised to Take Power 36 Years After Family Fled Manila

•   Bloomberg: Bolsonaro’s Brawl With a Top Justice Tests Brazil’s Democracy

•   Bloomberg: Funds Taking on BOJ Ready for a Key Look at Its Defense Plan

•   Bloomberg: Tally of Canned Europe Bond Deals Keeps Climbing as Markets Sour

•   Bloomberg: Russia Muscles In on Indian Oil Market at Expense of OPEC Titans

•   Bloomberg: The Whole Market Is Looking Like a Really Big Oil Trade

•   Bloomberg: LA Port Chief Sees No Strike as Labor-Contract Expiry Looms

•   Bloomberg: Toyota Vehicle Output Shrinks Before Planned Production Hike

•   Bloomberg: How Extreme Weather Could Impact Crops, Food Inflation

•   Reuters: Putin still wants most of Ukraine, war outlook grim -U.S. intelligence chief

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE EU nears compromise deal to defuse standoff with Russia over Kaliningrad

•   Reuters: NATO's Stoltenberg expects Sweden, Finland to become members quickly

•   Reuters: OPEC+ meets with little prospect of pumping more oil

•   Reuters: Companies cut spending, jobs as outlook grows less certain

•   Reuters: NY Fed begins publishing corporate bond market distress index

•   Reuters: France presses energy, shipping firms to ease inflation pain

•   Reuters: BOJ's public relations crisis forces rethink on inflation message

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE India's top cement maker paying for Russian coal in Chinese yuan

•   Reuters: Chip shortages result in record wire fraud reports by desperate buyers

•   Reuters: Analysis: What slowdown? Canada's economy to top G7 on high oil, crop prices

•   Reuters: Analysis: Latest U.S. stocks bounce tests skepticism that rally can last

•   Reuters: Analysis: Markets challenge Fed timeline, threatening more swings in Treasuries

•   Reuters: Analysis: Easing COVID-19 rules, growth focus aid China bulls' cautious return

•   CNBC: ‘We are in a hybrid war’: German foreign minister says as Russia cuts gas supplies to Europe

•   CNBC: ECB’s chief economist sees double-sided risk of spiraling inflation and an economic slowdown

•   CNBC: The economy still isn’t ready for the significant rate hikes ahead, Wells Fargo CEO says

•   MarketWatch: What’s next for the stock market after it has its worst 1st half since 1970? Here is the history.

•   SCMP: Chinese President Xi Jinping repeats call for tech self-reliance, innovative talent

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: faced with mounting costs, some ask whether China can afford to maintain mass testing

•   SCMP: China’s easing of zero-Covid restraints set to release stocks into bull-market territory for first time in three years

•   SCMP: China jobs: ‘arduous’ task to stabilise employment and boost economy, Premier Li Keqiang says

•   SCMP: Shanghai reopening: as restaurants restart offering dine-in services, owners say any more lockdowns will be ‘a fatal blow’

•   SCMP: US protectionism hits China hardest, and Chinese are more averse to trade because of it, study finds

•   Caixin: Charts of the Day: China Looms Large in Laos Debt Crisis

•   Nikkei Asia: New chip for robots conveys 'sense of touch' to human operators

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: New carrier's name, Fujian, mirrors Xi's Taiwan obsession

•   매경(P1): [단독] 美 "러 원유가격 상한제, 韓도 동참해달라" 요청

•   매경: 러시아 원유 의존도 낮지만…보복 우려에 韓정부 고심

•   매경(P1): [단독] 정부, 호화청사 때리더니…이번엔 "자산 현황 다 내라"

•   매경(P1): [단독] '제3판교 테크노밸리'소식에…반도체 회사 41곳 벌써 줄섰다

•   매경: 판교서 R&D부터 인재육성까지…K반도체 팹리스 생태계 구축

•   매경: 한국, 팹리스 세계 시장 점유율 1%대 불과

•   매경: 韓 정부-론스타 10년 분쟁, 10월까지 결론

•   매경: 8兆 체코원전 민관 수주 총력전

•   매경: 국민연금 곳간 점검…당정 연금개혁 속도

•   매경: 7월부터 대출 1억 넘으면 DSR 적용…신용대출 한도는 확대

•   매경: 회장 오른지 4년…구광모가 고르고 고른 새 먹거리는

•   매경: [Science in Biz] 세상에 더러운 에너지는 없다…'탄소혐오' 거둬라

•   매경: [Industry Review] '유동성 시대' 막내리자…장외시장 향하는 투자자들

•   매경: [Industry Review] 조직문화 세대교체…"기 센 임원도 Z세대 신입 눈치 봅니다"

•   한경(P1): 내년 최저임금 5% 오른 9620원…월급으로 환산하면 201만원

•   한경(P1): "2030년 UAM 대중화…택시보다 싸게 탄다"

•   한경: "2026년 에어택시 등장…여의도~인천공항 13분에 이동"

•   한경: "차량·로봇·가전 5000억개 기기 연결…6G 통해 AI 세상 본격화"

•   한경: "협동로봇, 의료·물류 등 확장성 무한대"

•   한경: "자율주행·UAM 기술 결합…공간과 시간의 한계 깰 것"

•   한경(P1): "소주성 설계자가 KDI원장 말 안돼"

•   한경: 野 '물가연동 법안' 추진…인플레 부채질하나

•   한경: "휴일에도 온라인 배송 가능"…당정, 대형마트 족쇄 풀기 나섰다

•   서경(P1): 인플레發 '과잉 재고'…글로벌경제 새 뇌관

•   서경(P1): [단독] 삼성전자, 8년만에 반도체 R&D센터 짓는다

•   서경: [단독] 삼성전자, 3차원 D램 등 차세대 반도체 속도전…TSMC·인텔 협공 따돌린다

•   서경(P1): [단독] 빚 아랑곳않고…중기 公기관 증축·증원

•   서경: 급속한 고령화에…장기요양보험 수입·지출 10조 넘었다

•   서경: [단독] 신형 넥쏘 출시 2024년으로 늦춘다

•   서경: 낮아지는 기업실적 눈높이…삼성전자 영업익 60조 밑으로

•   서경: 상장 리츠, 3년새 자산 9배…兆단위 '공룡'도 속속 등장

•   서경: "차라리 월세 산다" 쌓이는 매물, 집값 하락 장기화 되나

•   조선(P1): 한미일 정상, 5년만에 3각협력 되살렸다

•   조선(P1): [NOW] 점심값 너무 올라… 구내식당 북적북적

•   조선: 프랑스와는 원전, 네덜란드와는 반도체, 폴란드와는 방산협력 강화

•   조선: 尹 “한국, 나토와 국제안보 위협에 공동 대응”

•   조선: 尹 “기시다, 양국관계 발전시킬 파트너라 확신”

•   조선: 尹대통령 “한미일 협력은 세계평화·안정의 중심축”

•   조선(P1): 지역가입 561만가구 건보료 月3만6000원 내려

•   조선: 한국수출, 中비중 23%로 1위지만… 2018년부터 감소세

•   조선: 한일재계회의, 다음 달 4일 3년 만에 서울에서 열린다

•   조선: 한국 안방 누비는 중국 로봇청소기

•   조선: 가격 통제 안한다더니 금리 이어 임금까지 압박 나선 尹정부

•   조선: “연말까지 전기료 월 1억 오를 판”… 열처리 업체 아우성

•   조선: 상반기 투자 성적… 기관 > 외국인 > 동학개미 > 서학개미

•   조선: “자율車 최고 수혜 산업으로”… 차량용 반도체 전쟁

•   조선비즈: 벌써부터 소비 위축 조짐…하반기 경기 침체 ‘경고음’ 커졌다

•   조선비즈: “엔데믹 시대 식생활, 취식 횟수 줄고 식단 간소화”

•   인베스트조선: 당분간 한국 투자는 '홀드(HOLD)' 하겠다는 글로벌 펀드들

•   중앙: 이 프로젝트 맡을 전문가 있소? 억대 연봉 ‘수퍼 프리랜서’ 시대

•   동아(P1): 원희룡 국토 “임대차3법 중… 갱신요구권-상한제 없애야”

•   동아: PC방들 “전기료 겁나 ‘24시간 영업’ 중단”

•   동아: 다시 열린 김포~하네다… “경제-문화 교류도 열리길”

•   한국: "같은 아파트, 같은 면적인데 전셋값은 8억 차이" 법이 조장한 '3중 가격'

•   국민: [금융뒷담] “타고난 관운”… 청문회 패스 첫 금융위원장 나오나

•   한겨레: 한국 2차전지 종합경쟁력 86.3점…중국 이어 2위 수준

•   한겨레: 아파트 전세난 ‘풍선효과’…매매가 턱밑까지 차오른 ‘오피스텔’ 전세

•   한겨레: [현장에서] 에너지 전환 비용? 정권 바뀌니 산업부 설명도 달라지네

•   경향: 탄소중립의 길, 에너지 전환…‘공공성 조화’ 난제 풀어야 옳은 길[팩트체크 민영화]

•   머니투데이(P1): [단독]이게 바로 이재용 저력…TSMC 추격 '차세대 EUV' 따냈다

•   머니투데이(P1): [단독]정부, 반도체 세액공제 5배 '파격' 확대 검토

•   머니투데이: 정부, 주택 공급 속도 높인다 "공공·민간 구분 없이 인허가 단축"

•   헤럴드경제: 최저임금·전기료 인상에, ‘무인 편의점’ 대세 될까

•   헤럴드경제: 자재값 고공행진...조합·시공사, 계산기 다시 두드린다

•   헤럴드경제: 김앤장으로 이직한 경제관료...10년간 최소 100명 넘는다

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): SK(주)머티리얼즈, 日 기업과 손잡고 美 반도체 출사표

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 한국도 '백신주권국'… 수출길 열렸다 [국산 1호 코로나 백신 나왔다]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 미·유럽보다 효과 좋은 K-백신, 중저개발국 방역시장 잡는다 [국산1호 코로나 백신 나왔다]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 전기차 충전요금 할인특례 폐지... kwh당 300원대 중반까지 오른다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 지방도시 사라진다… 인구 90%, 전체 국토 6.7%에 몰려 살아

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 올해 LNG선 발주 100척 넘었다… 국내 조선3사 절반 수주

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]'발등의 빚' 한전…美 초대형 태양광 인수 추진

•   아시아경제: 건설사 수주대박에도 착공은 뚝…주택공급 비상

•   디지털타임스(P1): [기획] 급기야 보험사까지… 바닥에 처박힌 금융권 신뢰

•   이데일리(P1): 토레스 사전계약 2.5만대 찍은 쌍용차…KG그룹 인수로 퀀텀점프

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 9076명 확진…지난주보다 2023명 많아

•   연합: 대기업 75% "내년 상반기나 돼야 투자활동 점차 활성화 예상"

•   연합: 내일부터 전기·가스요금 오른다…10월에 또 동시 인상

•   연합: 너무나 달라진 NFT 시장…인기 작가 경매도 '썰렁'

•   전자신문(P1): 100만원 이하 '보급형 폴더블폰' 나온다

•   전자신문: 쌍용차는 BYD, 기아는 CATL...中배터리 공습

•   전자신문: OLED 재료 시장 연평균 21% 성장…2026년 30억달러 돌파

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[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Nouriel Roubini): A Stagflationary Debt Crisis Looms

•   Project Syndicate(Takatoshi Ito): America’s Watery Indo-Pacific Alphabet Soup

•   Project Syndicate(Brahma Chellaney): Hydropower Is a Bad Bargain

•   Project Syndicate(Todd G. Buchholz): More Pipes, Less Putin

•   FT(Mohamed El-Erian): The risk of a flip-flopping Fed

•   FT(Alan Beattie): US-led security push in Asia leaves trade as an optional extra

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): An Oil Price Cap for Russia?

•   WSJ(Red Jahncke): Rising Interest Rates Will Crush the Federal Budget

•   WSJ(Peter Tirschwell): More Supply-Chain Disruptions Are Coming

•   NYT(Alex Kingsbury): NATO Expansion, Compliments of Mr. Putin

•   WP(David Ignatius): NATO is united on Ukraine. Good, but plenty could still go wrong.

•   WP(Max Boot): Putin wants to terrorize Ukraine into submission. It’s not working.

•   WP(Henry Olsen): Rising interest rates will shackle the government — unless Congress acts

•   Bloomberg(Mark Gongloff): A Hot Housing Market Is a Financial Crisis Risk

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Disquiet Over the Housing Market Is Only Growing

•   Bloomberg(Liam Denning): In the Face of War and Pestilence, Clean Energy Keeps Growing

•   Bloomberg(Gary Shilling): Bond Market Rally Signals an Impending Economic Recession

•   Bloomberg(Hal Brands): Ukraine War: NATO, US Must Move More Far Troops to Russia's Borders

•   Bloomberg(Bobby Ghosh): A Middle Eastern NATO? Not Gonna Happen

•   Bloomberg(Adam Minter): China Is Quickly Challenging US on Mars Exploration

•   Bloomberg(Faye Flam): The Covid Pandemic Can’t Be a Permanent Emergency

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): Can Saudi Aramco Meet Its Oil Production Promises?

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Never Mind Peak Inflation. Fed's Powell Wisely Eyes the Long Term.

•   CNN(Dana Peterson): Why so many workers are still quitting their jobs

•   MarketWatch(Rex Nutting): Why are Americans so grumpy about the economy? They've never lost so much purchasing power in one year, as the stimulus dries up and inflation boils over

•   MarketWatch(Peter Morici): Defending Taiwan starts with standing up to Putin

•   Fox News(Bernie Sanders): Don't cut Social Security, expand it