Global Economic Monitor 220624

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street posts solid gains, as defensives, tech shine

※   Energy, cyclical sectors lag

※   Lower bond yields support technology, growth stocks

※   U.S. business activity slows considerably in June-survey

※   Indexes up: Dow 0.64%, S&P 0.95%, Nasdaq 1.62%

•   Natural gas: European Gas Futures Move Higher as Germany Sounds Supply Alarm

•   Metals: Copper tumbles to 16-month low as recession fears grow

•   Grains: Chicago grains down as recession fears and crop prospects weigh

•   한국: 코스피 2,310대·코스닥 710대로 또 연저점…환율 1,300원 돌파

[Indicators]

•   US·Europe·Asia May PMI: U.S., European Economies Slow Sharply as Recession Risks Grow

※   Business surveys point to declining manufacturing output and weaker services growth as price rises hit households

•   US Q1 Current account: U.S. current account deficit hits record high in first quarter

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: U.S. Jobless Claims Held Near Historic Lows Last Week

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates(Freddie Mac): Mortgage Rates in the US Rise to 5.81%, Highest Since 2008

•   Indonesia Benchmark rate: Outlier Indonesia Holds Rate as It Sees Inflation Manageable

•   Philippines Benchmark rate: Philippines Raises Key Rate on Inflation Risks, Peso Slump

•   한국 1분기 건설공사 계약액: 1분기 건설공사 계약액 73조원…작년 동기대비 10.7% 증가

•   한국 5월 기업 직접금융 조달실적: 삼바 대규모 유상증자 기저효과에 5월 발행주식 79% 줄어

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): 용산까지 상승세 멈춰…서울 아파트값 4주 연속 하락

[News]

•   WSJ: Jerome Powell Pressed Over How Fed Would Respond to Economic Slowdown

※   ‘We can’t fail on this. We really have to get inflation down,’ Fed leader tells Congress

•   WSJ: Fed Stress Test Finds Big Banks Can Weather Severe Recession

※   Fed: Federal Reserve Board releases results of annual bank stress test, which show that banks continue to have strong capital levels, allowing them to continue lending to households and businesses during a severe recession

•   WSJ: Fed Official Calls for Additional Significant Rate Rises

•   WSJ: Energy Secretary Urges Oil Companies to Address High Gasoline Prices

•   WSJ: America’s Cash Hoard Could Cushion a Downturn

•   WSJ: CDC Advisers Endorse Moderna’s Covid-19 Vaccine for Kids 6 to 17 Years

•   WSJ: Ukraine Loses Ground in Battle for Severodonetsk but Gains Firepower From U.S.

•   WSJ: Ukrainian Farmers Harvest Wheat Amid Russian Rockets, Crossfire

•   WSJ: Russia’s Welcome at Brics Summit Shows Disconnect With West

•   WSJ: Nuclear Power Is Poised for a Comeback. The Problem Is Building the Reactors.

•   WSJ: Oil Refiners an Easy, but Odd, Target for Pump-Price Surge

•   WSJ: Chinese Battery Giant CATL Raises $6.7 Billion in Share Sale

•   WSJ: Sweden’s Einride to Test Autonomous Trucks on U.S. Roads

•   WSJ: Google’s Plan for 24/7 Carbon-Free Energy Ran Into Headwinds in 2021

•   WSJ: Intel Delays Groundbreaking Ceremony for Ohio Plant Amid Uncertainty Over Chips Legislation

•   WSJ: Netflix Lays Off About 3% of Workforce in New Round of Cuts

•   WSJ: Chinese Internet Giants’ Ad Revenue Suffers as Business Confidence Wanes

•   NYT: Biden’s Inner Circle Debates Future of Offshore Drilling

•   NYT: Russia is crimping gas flows just as Europe is racing to stock up for winter.

•   NYT: Scientists Zero In on Origins of the Monkeypox Outbreak

•   NYT: From Russian Elites, No Sign of Broad Challenge to Putin

•   NYT: South Africa’s Corruption Inquiry Leaves Few of the Nation’s Powerful Unscathed

•   NYT: Ecuador Roiled by Protests Set Off by Rising Fuel and Food Prices

•   NYT: As Midterms Loom, Elections Are No Longer Top Priority for Meta C.E.O.

•   WP: U.S. monkeypox response mirrors early coronavirus missteps, experts say

•   FT: EU leaders grant Ukraine and Moldova candidate member status

※   Kyiv welcomes symbolic but conditional move by summit

•   FT: Germany moves closer to gas rationing over Russian disruption

※   Berlin says the commodity has become ‘scarce’ as planned work on Nord Stream 1 threatens efforts to build stores

•   FT: G7 leaders to debate ways to stabilise global energy markets

•   FT: EU aims to de-escalate tensions over Russian trade to Kaliningrad

•   FT: Eurozone central bank chiefs warn on soaring inflation expectations

•   FT: EU leaders gather for ‘geopolitical summit’

•   FT: Top EU lawmaker calls for ‘hard look’ at budgeting cycle as crises test bloc

•   FT: UK financial services co-operation with EU hit by Northern Ireland row

•   FT: Inflation drives surge in interest payments on UK public debt

•   FT: UK explores 5% pay rises for public sector workers

•   FT: Biden’s blues: is the US president out of political capital?

•   FT: Flu epidemic risks sweeping China left vulnerable by zero-Covid fixation

•   FT: ‘People are hungry’: food crisis starts to bite across Africa

•   FT: What Russia’s fortress balance sheet can tell us about the dollar’s future

•   FT: Investors crank up bets on BoJ surrendering yield curve controls

•   FT: Toyota recalls EV fleet as challenge to Tesla dominance suffers setback

•   FT: Why it’s getting harder to kick our fossil fuel addiction

•   Bloomberg: Global Life Expectancy Falls for First Time Since 1950s Due to Covid

•   Bloomberg: Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says Chance of Recession Still Below 50%

•   Bloomberg: US Bolsters Ukraine With Additional $450 Million in Weapons and Aid

•   Bloomberg: ‘Coast to Coast’ Housing Correction Is Coming, Says Moody’s Chief Economist

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s Energy Crisis Hinges on the Weather, Now and Later

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Nagel Says Central Banks Mustn’t Fall Behind the Curve

•   Bloomberg: UK Should Worry About Pound’s 10% Decline, Senior MP Says

•   Bloomberg: UK Businesses Brace for Deepening Recession, S&P Global Says

•   Bloomberg: Russia Slams Default Threat as ‘Farce,’ Pays Interest in Rubles

•   Bloomberg: Xi Reaffirms Growth Target That Analysts Say Is Out of Reach

•   Bloomberg: India’s RBI Seen Raising Rates Twice Before Weighing a Pause

•   Bloomberg: Indonesia to Start Building $34 Billion New Capital in August

•   Bloomberg: How Sri Lanka’s Financial Crisis Could Become the World’s

•   Bloomberg: Brazil Central Bank Chief Says He’s Aiming for Sub-4% Inflation

•   Bloomberg: What’s a Reverse Currency War and Who’s Fighting One?

•   Bloomberg: ECB Still Hasn’t Activated Bond-Purchasing Firepower as First Line of Defense in Market

•   Bloomberg: China Bulls Have Got It Wrong as Covid Zero Stays, Lombard Says

•   Bloomberg: Traders Are Stockpiling the Most Cash in a Decade, JPMorgan Says

•   Bloomberg: End of Easy Money Raises the Risk of Deals Dying in Europe

•   Bloomberg: HSBC’s Major Says Yields Likely Peaked as Recession Risks Grow

•   Bloomberg: SoftBank’s Son Faces Shareholders Shaken by $34 Billion Loss

•   Bloomberg: Fertilizer and Worker Shortages to Curb Malaysia Palm Oil Output

•   Bloomberg: Steel Pipes for Drilling Oil Are the New Semiconductors

•   Bloomberg: Crude Oil’s Inflation Trade Is Unwinding, Credit Suisse Says

•   Bloomberg: World’s Most Watched Oil Data Won’t Be Released This Week

•   Bloomberg: China Mulls Extending Electric-Car Tax Exemptions, State TV Says

•   Bloomberg: TikTok Turns On the Money Machine

•   Bloomberg: CATL Unveils EV Battery With One-Charge Range of 1,000 Kms

•   Bloomberg: Shipping Costs Soar as Russian Fallout Upends Fuel Flows

•   Bloomberg: Amazon’s Alexa Impersonates Grandma, Creeping Out Internet

•   Bloomberg: Instagram to Test AI on Faces to Verify Users Are Over 18

•   Bloomberg: The Global Currency Wars Have Begun Because, Well, Inflation

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: The Age of Credibility for Central Banks Is Over

•   Reuters: OPEC+ to stick to oil supply rise plan as Biden heads to Saudi - sources

•   Reuters: Chances of global recession nearing 50% -Citigroup

•   Reuters: French energy ministers: Still receiving Russian gas, but at varying quantities

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Bidders weigh offers valuing Toshiba at up to $22 billion - sources

•   Reuters: Stellantis to halt Melfi plant again due to chip shortage

•   Reuters: Analysis: UK's Brexit woes threaten another flagship policy: levelling-up

•   Reuters: Analysis: High energy prices could sink U.S. stocks during earnings season

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Britain, Germany push G7 for halt to biofuel mandates to tame food prices

•   CNN: Ex-Trump adviser calls for lifting Trump tariffs on China

•   CNBC: Russia’s ruble hit its strongest level in 7 years despite massive sanctions. Here’s why

•   CNBC: World’s largest hybrid ship set to ferry passengers between Britain and France

•   MarketWatch: You shouldn’t trust the stock-market bounce until the S&P 500 is back above 3,800, analysts say

•   MarketWatch: Oil industry describes emergency meeting with Biden administration as ‘constructive’

•   SCMP: China’s strict Covid-19 border controls show more signs of easing, as Zhejiang province cuts entry quarantine

•   SCMP: China considers extending EV tax exemption to put industry back on track after Covid-19 lockdown

•   SCMP: China’s zero-Covid policy hammered Beijing’s economy in May. But how bad was it compared to Shanghai?

•   SCMP: China’s world’s factory tag threatened by Vietnam, but ‘there’s nothing to worry about’, analysts say

•   SCMP: China, South Korea battle population woes as ‘children are not a must’, adding to economic peril

•   SCMP: Chinese radar breakthrough will see commercial drones soar in power and applications, says Shenzhen team

•   Global Times: BRICS to expand green energy, digital cooperation in bid to boost sustainable development

•   Nikkei Asia: Toyota pushes some parts suppliers to lower prices

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan to increase competition in offshore wind to speed rollout

•   Nikkei Asia: Shareholders push corporate Japan for tougher climate goals

•   Nikkei Asia: Taiwan top memory chipmaker sees demand slowdown spreading

•   Nikkei Asia: China's Yangtze Memory takes on rivals with new chip plant

•   Economic Times: Indian economy to grow by 7-7.8 pc in FY23 despite global headwinds: Experts

•   Economic Times: US recession set to impact India, may lead to growth slowdown in medium-term

•   매경(P1): '주52시간' 유연하게…月 평균으로 바뀐다

•   매경: "노동시장 개혁 추진방향"

•   매경: 이번주 40시간 근무하면 다음주 60시간 몰아서 일해도 된다

•   매경: 재계 "中企인력난 해소 기대" 환영…민노총 "노동시간 무한 연장" 반발

•   매경: 韓 1년차 vs 30년차 연봉 3배 차이…'연공서열 천국' 日보다 더하네

•   매경(P1): "韓·베트남, 이젠 디지털·녹색 동맹"

•   매경: 서울마저 미분양 3년만에 최고…"집값 떨어질려나"

•   매경: 이복현 금감원장 "미증유 퍼펙트스톰 우려"

•   매경: "지출이 장난 아니에요" 유학생·여행객도 비명

•   매경: 원화값 하락은 수출호재라던데…기업들 "옛말된지 오래"

•   매경: [단독] 기업 덩치 커져도 '中企 혜택' 5년간 유지

•   매경: 옆집보다 전기 덜 쓰면 환급…7월부터 전국으로 확대한다

•   매경: "받을땐 좋았는데"…한전 자회사도 성과급 줄줄이 반납

•   매경: 삼성 이미지센서도 초격차…픽셀 2억개로 화질 확 높여

•   매경: "뭉쳐야 빨리 짓는다"…1기신도시 너도나도 '통합재건축'

•   매경: 물가 난리인데…공무원까지 "월급 7% 올려달라" 빗속 시위

•   한경(P1): 與마저 기업에 가격 인하 압박

•   한경(P1): e커머스 공세에…대형마트, 생존위한 '노후점포 재건축'

•   한경: "이마트·홈플러스가 동시다발로 추진 중"…마트의 新 생존전략

•   한경: 영업시간 제한, 매달 1~2회 의무휴업…마트·시장 함께 쇠락시킨 '마트규제법'

•   한경: 물류창고로, 전기차 충전소로…마트의 생존법

•   한경: '괴물' 같은 규제 탓에 전국 떠돈다…칠성사이다의 눈물

•   한경: 판 커진 중고차 시장…"수년 내 60조원 신차 넘을 것"

•   한경: "일본·중국에 밀리더니 결국…" 한국 반도체 경쟁력 '초비상'

•   한경: 빚투 개미 "더 못 버텨"…24일 역대급 반대매매 나올 듯

•   서경(P1): 개미 '대학살'…정부 불구경할 때인가

•   서경: 담보부족계좌 11배 급증…빚투 개미 '지옥문 '열린다

•   서경: "증시 안정화 카드 뭐든지 꺼내야"

•   서경: 이달 20% 곤두박질…글로벌 최약체로 전락한 코스닥

•   서경: 컨설턴트 출신이 인사·보상 개입…EY한영 회계사들 '부글' [시그널INSIDE]

•   조선: 환율상승→외국인매도→환율상승… 한국증시 악순환

•   조선: 기업들도 비상… 대한항공, 환율 10원 뛰면 410억 손해

•   조선: 경제 복합위기인데… 경제부처 요직 곳곳이 ‘공석’

•   조선: [단독] 헛발질 가스공사, 日보다 78% 비싸게 LNG 수입

•   조선: 1명이 4명 데리고 와요… 기업들 “A세대 고객 잡아라”

•   조선: “스톡옵션 주겠다” “원격근무” AI학회에서 인재 유치 전쟁

•   조선: [WEEKLY BIZ] 우크라戰이 낳은 ‘프렌드쇼어링’… 장기적으론 毒

•   조선비즈: 추경호 만난 기재부 올드보이들 “교육·노동·연금개혁 무엇보다 중요”

•   조선비즈: 高환율 수혜 업종으로 꼽히는 조선·해운 “경기둔화 걱정”

•   조선비즈: 얼어붙은 IPO 시장에도…“올해는 무조건 상장” 추진하는 기업들 ‘눈길’

•   조선비즈: LG디스플레이, 대형 OLED 1000만대 출하 불투명… 삼성과 동맹 파열 결정타

•   조선비즈: “치솟는 자잿값에 분쟁 느니”… ‘확정공사비’ 카드 내민 건설사들

•   인베스트조선: '탈중앙화 원칙'도 무너진 디파이 시장…지속 가능성 의문

•   중앙: "10만원 내고도 밥 먹기 미안하다" 축의금에 등골 휘는 MZ들

•   중앙: 수두와 증세 비슷, 잠복기 길어…원숭이두창 ‘조용한 전파’ 우려

•   중앙: 유류세 37% 깎아도 ‘언발에 오줌’…생색내기 대신 세제 개편 목소리

•   중앙: “중국, 원자력 발전량 세계 4→2위…태양광·풍력 밸류체인도 장악”

•   중앙: 해외에 쌓인 기업 돈 13.5조…배당금 비과세 땐 얼마나 돌아올까

•   동아(P1): [단독]기재부, 대통령에 “公기관 인력-복지 축소” 보고

•   동아: ‘주택 45채 싹쓸이’… 외국인 부동산투기 칼 빼든다

•   동아: [단독]메르스때 효과 본 ‘해외여행력 알림’, 원숭이두창엔 적용 안했다

•   동아: 국가 에너지효율 2027년까지 25% 개선

•   동아: “기업 소득, 최근 5년간 감소… 정부-가계 소득은 증가”

•   한국(P1): [단독] '대북제재 진두지휘' 옐런 美 재무장관, 7월 중순 한국 온다

•   한국: 같은 두산공장 갔지만... 尹은 '원전'·文은 '풍력' 살폈다

•   한국: 여야 ‘감세 경쟁’… 1000조 넘긴 나랏빚 걱정은 뒷전

•   국민: [단독] UAM·자율주행차 ‘순풍의 돛’… 정부 도맡아 키운다

•   경향(P1): 공공기관 손보겠다는 윤석열 정부…우회로 찾아 ‘은밀한 민영화’ 나서나[팩트체크 민영화]

•   경향: 수박값 폭등…꿀벌 부족 탓?

•   경향: 한전 사상 최대 적자, 원인이 ‘탈원전’?

•   경향: 이자에 놀란 직장인들 줄줄이 ‘마통 정리’

•   머니투데이: [단독]"엔비디아 배워라"···그룹 혁신 채찍질한 SK 최태원 회장

•   머니투데이: "오늘은 1분만 일하고 퇴근"...최소 근무시간 없앤 삼성 반도체

•   머니투데이: '중국·일본은 다 했다' 부산 엑스포 유치에 5대그룹 뛴다

•   머니투데이: '철옹성' 日완성차 뚫는 LG엔솔...이번엔 닛산에 배터리 공급

•   머니투데이: "매일 5999원 주유, 환장할 노릇"…고물가 시대에 그들이 사는 법

•   머니투데이: "개미 6718억 손절했다" 멸망의 대폭락 오는가..韓주식 어디로

•   머니투데이: "더 떨어지나" 개미들 덜덜…'공매도 집중포화' 종목들

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 원숭이두창 ‘주의’ 단계로…발열기준 낮춰 검역 강화

•   헤럴드경제: 올 초 가격폭락에 ‘밭 갈아엎던’ 양파…이젠 없어서 못판다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 반도체·IT·메타버스 잊어라… '차·정·태' 시대 온다 [한국, 새 길에 서다]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 뛰는 금리… 채권 투자 최적기 [한국, 새 길에 서다]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 금리·인플레 파고 넘어 민간공급 수도꼭지를 틀어라 [한국, 새 길에 서다]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "물 들어온다" 노젓는 1기 신도시·서울 정비사업 단지들 [한국, 새 길에 서다]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "머물면 뒤처진다" 프로젝트 따라 이동... 슈퍼프리랜서가 된 ICT 개발자들 [한국, 새 길에 서다]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: ‘5만전자’에 화들짝… 삼성전자 목표가 낮추는 증권사들

•   아시아경제(P1): '서민 물가', 벌써 7.4% 뛰었다

•   아시아경제: 철광석값 올들어 최저점 찍어…조선·자동차 숨통 틔울까

•   아시아경제: 삼성 '전장사업' 박차…삼성전기, 3년 만에 '전장MLCC' 전시회

•   디지털타임스(P1): 연일 `대출금리 인하` 압박…금융권 `新관치` 논란 확산

•   디지털타임스(P1): 안전ㆍ건강에 문제 없으면 규제 다 없앤다

•   디지털타임스: 이른 더위에 전력 예비율 연중 최저… 벌써 `요금 폭탄` 우려

•   디지털타임스: `순처분가능소득` 가계 증가·기업 감소

•   이데일리(P1): "대부업 돈이라도"…대부업 문 두드린 차주 2.26배로 급증

•   이데일리(P1): 정부 예산편성 견제하자는 野, 정작 與 시절땐 `감액보다 증액`

•   연합: 9시까지 전국 확진자, 전주보다 늘어난 6847명…감소세 소강국면

•   연합: 미중, 한국 나토회의 참가 놓고 충돌…美 "中 거부권 없어" 비판

•   더구루: [단독] SK하이닉스, 메모리 반도체 IP 500여건 확보

•   전자신문: 삼성디스플레이, BMW에 車 OLED 400만장 공급

•   전자신문: 아마존 '알렉사', 연내 대화형 검색 기능 탑재

•   전자신문: 보급형 5G폰 시장... 중저가 요금제 도입 논의에 '들썩'

•   전자신문: 쌍용차, 인수제안서 24일 마감...쌍방울 압수수색 변수로

•   전자신문: 28GHz 활용재할당 워킹그룹 임박...정부-업계는 '동상이몽'

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Joschka Fischer): Europe’s New War of Ideas

•   Project Syndicate(German Galushchenko, Oleg Ustenko): How to Stop Russia Immediately

•   Project Syndicate(Aïchatou Mindaoudou): What the Ukraine War Means for Africa

•   Project Syndicate(Mariana Mazzucato, Alan Donnelly): How the G7 Could Help the Debt-Distressed

•   FT(Editorial Board): Russia’s gas squeeze: a moment of truth for Europe

•   FT(Gillian Tett): Crypto enthusiasts are betting the house on creative destruction

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): Reflections on France after the elections

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Supply won’t save us

•   FT(Aimee Boulanger): How the revolution in electric vehicles is changing mining

•   FT(Martin Herem): Nato must show Putin it is serious about defence

•   WSJ(James Freeman): Washington Post: Biden Economists Oppose Biden Tax Plan

•   WSJ(Harold Ford Jr.): A Biden Retreat Could Lower Gas Prices

•   WP(Editorial Board): Russia’s oil earnings are booming. The U.S. and Europe need a new plan.

•   WP(Josh Rogin): Biden is under pressure to go soft on China’s genocide

•   WP(Abdullah Alaoudh): Biden must not betray defenders of democracy in Saudi Arabia

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): What Biden Should (and Shouldn’t) Do About Inflation

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling, Clara Ferreira Marques): Andrew Forrest, a Billionaire Hydrogen Evangelist, Needs to Come Down to Earth

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): X-Rated Recession Risks Can't Be Covered Up

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): Rising Yields Will Test EU’s 800 Billion-Euro Promise

•   Bloomberg(Robert Burgess): The Latest Currency War May Just Be a Skirmish

•   Bloomberg(Karl W. Smith): A Gas Tax Holiday Would Be Nothing to Celebrate

•   Bloomberg(Hal Brands): Economic Chaos of a Taiwan War Would Go Well Past Semiconductors

•   Bloomberg(Hussein Ibish): Biden Can Repair a Rift and Push Human Rights in Saudi Arabia

•   Bloomberg(Paul J. Davies): Real Stress Hurts Bank Buybacks More Than Fed’s Test

•   MarketWatch(Lawrence G. McMillan): The S&P 500 is trying to start a rally, but that won't end the bear market