Global Economic Monitor 220608

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Even a Soft Landing Can Be Ugly for Investors

※   Stocks resurge as Target's warning hints at inflation peak

※   Dollar hits 20-year high vs yen, sterling struggles

※   Oil gains as market juggles risk sentiment with tight supply

•   Turkey: Lira slide accelerates as Erdoğan vows to continue slashing rates

•   Metals: Copper slips as China demand concerns dominate sentiment

•   Grains: U.S. wheat futures fall after rally; corn, soy firm on cash market strength

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Falls Back Below $30,000 as Range-Bound Trading Persists

•   한국: 코스피, 1.66% 떨어져 2,620대로…美 국채금리 급등 부담

•   한국: 3년 만기 국채 금리, 年 3.2% 넘었다

•   한국: "5% 뚫렸다" 2008년 금융위기 수준 高물가...물가채 거래 '껑충'

•   한국: 한국 CDS 프리미엄 치솟아…"美 금리인상 불안감 반영"

[Indicators]

•   US Apr. Consumer credit: US Consumer Credit Surges Again as Loans, Card Spending Jump

•   US Apr. Balance of trade: U.S. Imports Slowed in April, Shrinking Trade Deficit From Record

※   WSJ: Fewer Imports, Better Growth

•   Germany Apr. Factory orders: German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Plunge Amid China Lockdowns

•   Japan Apr. Household spending: Japan's household spending falls as rising costs squeeze consumers

•   Sri Lanka May Foreign reserves: Sri Lanka Forex Reserves Rise First Time in Five Months

[News]

•   WSJ: World Bank Warns of Stagflation Risk, Cuts Global Growth Forecast to 2.9%

※   Toll from Ukraine war and Covid-19 pandemic is likely to lead to years of slow growth and high inflation, bank says

※   World Bank: Stagflation Risk Rises Amid Sharp Slowdown in Growth

•   WSJ: Janet Yellen Tells Lawmakers She Expects Inflation to Remain High

※   Treasury secretary recently said she had been wrong about inflation’s persistence, fueling GOP criticism of Democratic economic policies

•   WSJ: In Russia’s Battle for East Ukraine, Both Sides Have Higher Stakes at Play

•   WSJ: Russia Is Weaponizing Food Supplies in Ukraine, Europe Says

•   WSJ: Treasury Moves to Block U.S. Investors From Buying Russian Debt

•   WSJ: BA.4, BA.5 Variants Rise Among U.S. Covid-19 Cases

•   WSJ: CDC Shifts Monkeypox Mask Guidance After Criticism

•   WSJ: Looming Food Crisis Related to Ukraine War Divides Biden Administration

•   WSJ: Japan Adopts View That Huge Government Debt Doesn’t Matter

•   WSJ: The U.S. Dollar Is Looking a Bit Stretched

•   WSJ: SEC’s Trading Shake-Up Expected to Face Heavy Opposition

•   WSJ: Commercial Property Sales Slow as Rising Interest Rates Sink Deals

•   WSJ: Target Warns of Weaker Profit as it Faces Overstuffed Stores, Inflation-Weary Shoppers

•   WSJ: Novavax’s Covid-19 Vaccine Backed by FDA Advisers

•   NYT: Ukraine’s strategic dilemma in Sievierodonetsk: Stand and fight, or pull back?

•   NYT: As the Great Salt Lake Dries Up, Utah Faces An ‘Environmental Nuclear Bomb’

•   NYT: Democratic Lawmakers Urge Biden to Ensure Saudi Ties Serve U.S.

•   NYT: A Short History of Tech Predictions

•   WP: Pessimism about the economy is about both partisanship and prices

•   WP: A factory wants to reopen making ‘green’ aluminum. Now it just needs clean energy.

•   FT: Russian menace brings abrupt end to the west’s ‘peace dividend’

•   FT: Russian oil and gas: headed for long-term decline?

•   FT: Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says stalemate with Russia ‘not an option’

•   FT: Germany backs Baltic demands for more Nato troops

•   FT: EU agrees deal to ensure fair minimum wages for workers

•   FT: Battle for internal combustion engine splits EU parliament

•   FT: Sweden’s government survives after MP secures pledge on Kurds

•   FT: Brussels agrees new law on single standard charger in blow to Apple

•   FT: Green Deal Sparks Clash by EU Lawmakers as War Hits Energy

•   FT: Cost of living crunch hits UK consumers hard

•   FT: Boris Johnson may hobble on longer than we think

•   FT: How will Boris Johnson govern after his leadership challenge?

•   FT: Taiwan: preparing for a potential Chinese invasion

•   FT: ‘Liquidity is terrible’: poor trading conditions fuel Wall Street tumult

•   FT: BYD pollution probe heaps pressure on China’s stuttering electric vehicle sector

•   FT: Toshiba chief willing to sell company ‘to make it great’

•   Bloomberg: Nations Should Let Prices Rise But Protect Poor, IMF Says

•   Bloomberg: Logistics Stress in US Economy Eases as Truck Capacity Rebounds

•   Bloomberg: ECB Will Herald New Policy Era With Path to Fight Inflation

•   Bloomberg: Half-Point European Central Bank Rate Hike by July Is Coin Toss

•   Bloomberg: Boris Johnson Seeks to Shift Narrative With Law to Rip Up Brexit Deal

•   Bloomberg: US Says China Fabricated Quotes From Diplomats on Xinjiang

•   Bloomberg: Top Economist Urges China to Seize TSMC If US Ramps Up Sanctions

•   Bloomberg: China Fears Wind Is Blowing Covid Virus in From North Korea

•   Bloomberg: China Warns Australia of Serious Consequences Over Jet Encounter

•   Bloomberg: China Export Boom Fades as Buying Shifts, Cheap Rivals Gain

•   Bloomberg: Currency Plunge Is Giving Japan Another Shot at Reflation

•   Bloomberg: Tumbling Yen Spells Inflation Opportunity for Bank of Japan

•   Bloomberg: Rich Nations May Fork Out Billions to Wean Indonesia Off Coal

•   Bloomberg: China Shifting Focus to Southeast Asia, Sri Lanka President Says

•   Bloomberg: India Loosens Rules to Promote Switch to Clean Energy

•   Bloomberg: South African Economy Is Now Bigger Than Before Pandemic Struck

•   Bloomberg: Market Optimists Make the Case That 2022 Will End on High Note

•   Bloomberg: Russia’s Latest Eurobond Coupons Are Stuck at Euroclear

•   Bloomberg: Gasoline Tops $5 a Gallon in 13 States as US Nears $6 Summer

•   Bloomberg: The US Is Now Sending the Bulk of Its Export Gas to Europe

•   Bloomberg: Russian Oil Output Set to Dive in 2023 Amid EU Ban, EIA Says

•   Bloomberg: Gas Exporters See Growing Support for East Coast Plant in Canada

•   Bloomberg: Platinum Surplus is ‘Fragile’ Amid Supply Risks, Council Warns

•   Bloomberg: Fertilizers Piling Up at Brazil Ports Signal Further Price Drop

•   Bloomberg: China Harvests Half of Wheat Crop With Favorable Weather Ahead

•   Bloomberg: Customer-Service Wait Times Triple as Staff Shortage Vex Call Centers

•   Bloomberg: The Future of Trucking Isn't Batteries Yet, Says Volvo

•   Reuters: Putin orders new budget rules to boost Russia's growth

•   Reuters: Brazil's Bolsonaro casts doubt on Biden's 2020 election win ahead of meeting him

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Musk's Twitter deal threats put new financing on ice -sources

•   CNN: Goldman Sachs predicts $140 oil as gas prices spike near $5 a gallon

•   CNN: Wages are rising at their fastest pace in decades. Here's how that stacks up with inflation

•   CNBC: Apple is turning your iPhone into fintech service taking on PayPal, Affirm and more

•   CNBC: Fed GDP tracker shows the economy could be on the brink of a recession

•   CNBC: Why nuclear energy is on the verge of a renaissance

•   CNBC: Analysts cheer Apple’s continued chip developments following WWDC

•   Fox Business: Gas on the rise: 'No end in sight' for record-high pump prices, energy expert warns

•   SCMP: China’s ‘economic momentum’ fuelling June’s GDP growth, skewing quarterly estimates

•   SCMP: Japan and China ‘must think long term to improve ties’ as frictions rise over Taiwan

•   SCMP: Shanghai reopening: world’s biggest port reaps benefits of higher freight rates as exporters get back on their feet after lockdown

•   SCMP: Can Joe Biden’s economic package overcome Americas summit exclusion row?

•   SCMP: Myanmar junta’s ‘cold blooded assassination’: rights groups condemn decision to hang political prisoners

•   SCMP: China plans to start building first-ever solar power plant in space by 2028

•   SCMP: Deep dive for Chinese underwater lab in mission to bottom of South China Sea

•   Nikkei Asia: Staying afloat: Japan's growing battle against climate change

•   Nikkei Asia: EV motor maker Nidec fights for more chip buying power

•   Nikkei Asia: Yen becomes lone loser on flight to higher-yielding dollar, euro

•   Nikkei Asia: BOJ's Kuroda apologizes for saying households accept price rises

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan to increase investment in human resources, decarbonization

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan asks companies, households to save power across nation

•   Nikkei Asia: China lockdowns to keep freight rates elevated, logistics bosses say

•   Nikkei Asia: Chinese COVID lockdowns prove a big break for delivery robots

•   매경(P1): 타이어 18만개 수출길 막은 화물연대…총파업에 전국 물류 마비

•   매경: 컨테이너 차량 1000대 오갔는데…파업에 텅 빈 부산항 터미널

•   매경: 소주·맥주 출하 막혀…자영업자 직격탄 우려

•   매경: 기업 "안전운임제 안돼"…사태 장기화 우려

•   매경(P1): 尹 "반도체, 목숨걸고 해야"…국무회의서 인재육성 강조

•   매경: "규제 직접 손볼 것" "반도체 전쟁 준비"...尹, 한달내내 경제 행보

•   매경(P1): 금융위원장 김주현, 국조실장 방문규, 금감원장 이복현…4강 대사 인선도 마무리

•   매경: '금산분리 완화' 언급한 김주현…"규제 혁파로 금융산업 육성"

•   매경: 검찰 출신, 사상 첫 금감원장 됐다…옵티머스 사태 재조명 될듯

•   매경(P1): [단독] 웨스팅하우스 사장단 극비 방한…탄력받는 '한미 원전동맹'

•   매경: 빈 페트병 자판기에 넣자…소비자 돈 벌고, 기업은 재생소재 뚝딱

•   매경: 재생플라스틱 안쓰면 유럽수출 못할판…'순환경제' 입법 시급

•   매경: '임피제 무효' 대법원 판결 후...車노조 목소리 더 강경해진다

•   매경: 美, 태양광패널 관세 면제…韓기업에 '양날의 검'

•   매경: 규제샌드박스 사업기한 내년 추가로 연장

•   매경: 체질 바꾼 LG화학...그룹내 영업이익 선두 굳힌다

•   매경: 거래절벽에…'줍줍'·10년 임대도 썰렁

•   한경(P1): 삼성·SK·LG 40대 임원, 10년새 절반 이상 줄었다

•   한경: 0.8%만 대기업 임원 된다…더 좁아진 '바늘구멍'

•   한경: 크래프톤 임원 7명 중 6명이 40대…카카오·네이버도 비중 70% 넘어

•   한경: "586에 막혀 임원 승진 까마득한데"…MZ에도 치이는 40대의 탄식

•   한경(P1): '6만전자'로 본 한국 기업의 딜레마 [조일훈의 '6만전자' 탐색전]

•   한경: '탄소배출권' 규제 완화…외부 감축실적 인정 5→10%로

•   한경: 삼성디스플레이, 세계 첫 240㎐ OLED 패널 양산

•   한경: "내년 상반기까지 집 사겠다" 64.6%

•   한경: 탄소중립 대안…세계가 주목, '꼬마 원전' SMR이 다시 뜬다

•   한경: 이재용, 네덜란드 ASML 찾은 까닭은

•   한경: 버릴 것 하나 없는 폐기물 처리 산업…M&A로 대형화 속도 낸다

•   서경(P1): 대기업·부자 '표적증세' 5년…조세경쟁력 10계단 추락

•   서경: 10대 그룹 법인세 5%P 낮추면 6兆 투자 여력…기업 살려야 'S의 늪' 넘는다

•   서경: 라면·김밥도 1만원인데…직장인 '소득세 비명'

•   서경: '富의 이전'으로 생산·소비 촉진…美처럼 상속세 완화해야

•   서경: 실적·감사 압박으로…일부 에너지 공기업 CEO 교체될 수도

•   서경: 대한상의 '제주포럼' 재개…추경호 부총리 등 한자리에

•   서경: 뉴스페이스 핵심은 민간 기업…사업 수익 적극 보장한다

•   조선: 하반기 코스피 전망 최고치 물었더니… “3000” “2800선” 반반

•   조선비즈: 화물연대 파업에 수소차 충전 못해 ‘날벼락’

•   조선비즈: LCD 완전 철수 삼성디스플레이…OLED 추가 투자 놓고 고심

•   조선비즈: 추경호 “공급망 3법 제·개정 추진…재정·세제 등 패키지 지원”

•   조선비즈: 기상청 통계 50년래 최악 가뭄… 농민들 “올해 농사 망했다”

•   조선비즈: 가뭄 직격탄에 마늘·감자·양파값 급등…물가당국, 채소發 ‘하이퍼 인플레’ 초비상

•   조선비즈: 새벽배송 뛰어든 코스트코, 물건값 5% 더 받는 이유

•   조선비즈: 중국 질주에 K-전기차·배터리 점유율 하락세… “미국·신흥국과 협력 절실”

•   조선비즈: [ESG 리포트] 최태원 “ESG 정면 돌파”… 사업 체질 확 바꾼 SK

•   조선비즈: 한국, 중국 수입시장 점유율 대만·아세안에 밀려

•   인베스트조선: 이재용 사면 언급에 삼성 준법감시위 '격하'한 이찬희 위원장

•   중앙: 고유가에 무역적자 커지자…다시 고개 드는 ‘해외 석유개발론’

•   중앙: 임금피크로 깎인 것도 서러운데…노사 임금인상 제외 ‘이중삭감’ 논란

•   동아(P1): 올해 봄 평균 13.2도… 50년만에 가장 더웠다

•   동아: 청년 취업난에도… 수도권 구직자 4명중 3명 “지방근무 싫다”

•   문화: 고공행진 $· 수직낙하 ￥… 韓 수출 주력상품‘악천후 경고등’

•   문화: 식품·외식 물가급등… 서민·저소득 가구가 더 아팠다

•   국민: [단독] 집나간 기업들 돌아오게… 세액공제 등 ‘유턴 혜택’ 늘린다

•   국민: IPEF 사령탑 꿰찬 산업부… 이달 중 민관 협의체 구성

•   세계(P1): 물가 고공행진 속 전기료 또 오르나… 한전, 16일 3분기 인상안 제출

•   머니투데이(P1): [단독]"6개월마다 상장 코인 위험성 평가"…코인거래소 상장·폐지 기준 통일

•   머니투데이: '소통+경쟁' 이창용식 개편안, '수재들의 무덤' 한은 체질 바꿀까

•   머니투데이: "53조 초과세수에 감세 정책"…5년치 세수전망 확 바뀐다

•   머니투데이: 가뭄에 채소값 뛰는데 총파업까지…"물가 6% 갈수도"

•   머니투데이: 빚내서 집 사면 '월급 순삭'…아파트 매물 쌓여도 "집 안사요"

•   헤럴드경제: “새 차 출고 전달보다 1~4개월 더 지연”

•   헤럴드경제: 회사채 ‘A급’ 시장도 속속 복귀

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 카카오, 전세계가 연결되는 '가상 놀이터' 만든다 [베일 벗은 '카카오 유니버스']

•   파이낸셜뉴스: ‘갤Z 듀오’ 하반기 출격… 애플·구글 ‘빈 자리’ 집중 공략

•   아시아경제: 韓, 지난달 세계 선박 절반 수주…4년 만에 中 제쳤다

•   이데일리(P1): 美 8개, 韓 9개…허가 남발이 'LCC 위기' 키웠다

•   이데일리(P1): 새 주인 찾는 조단위 매물 21조…M&A ‘핫 서머’ 막 올랐다

•   이데일리: 매머드급 M&A 매물 넘치지만… 병목현상에 ‘안 팔리면 어쩌나'

•   이데일리: “한전 적자 왜 떠넘기나…전력도매가 상한제 폐지하라”

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 1만2824명 확진…연휴 지나며 어제의 2.2배로 늘어

•   연합: 원숭이두창 2급 법정감염병 지정…코로나19처럼 확진시 격리

•   연합: 오늘부터 접종여부 관계없이 모든 해외입국자 격리 안 한다

•   연합: 다시 북적이는 인천공항…올가을 100% 정상화 전망

•   연합: 美 "北, 언제든 핵실험 가능…외교에 관심 두면 더 유연한 접근"

•   연합: 수소법 개정안 조만간 공포…수소산업 생태계 조성 탄력

•   전자신문(P1): 빌라·단독주택까지 광케이블 설치 의무화

•   전자신문(P1): LG화학, 배터리 소재로 車도로 결빙 막는다

•   전자신문(P1): 지자체, 전기차 보급 목표 '절반도 못 채워'

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(David Malpass): The Supply Solution to Stagflation

•   Project Syndicate(Mohamed A. El-Erian): Saudi Arabia Is Swinging Again – But for How Long?

•   FT(Editorial Board): Boris Johnson’s hollow victory is a bad outcome for Britain

•   FT(Janan Ganesh): The bright side of Anglo-American populism

•   FT(Robert Shrimsley): Boris Johnson has one last chance to be the man he isn’t

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): How to invest now?

•   FT(Valérie Baudson): EU’s strategic autonomy requires new investment momentum

•   FT(John Redwood): EU is on the back foot in inflation fight

•   FT(Irene Mia): Why the US must start caring about Latin America

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Biden’s Green-Energy Industrial Policy

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): A Wounded Boris Johnson Fights On

•   WSJ(Thomas Piketty): Thomas Piketty’s Case for ‘Participatory Socialism’

•   WSJ(James Freeman): The U.S. and Europe Have Different Inflation Problems

•   WSJ(Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.): The Ukraine War and the Putin Puzzle

•   WSJ(William A. Galston): Fuel Prices Aren’t Going Down Soon

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): From the Big Short to the Big Scam

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Elon Musk, Mars and the Modern Economy

•   NYT(Jean H. Lee): There’s a Reason Kim Jong-un Wants Us to Know About North Korea’s Covid Outbreak

•   WP(Editorial Board): Myanmar’s military must not hang those fighting for democracy

•   WP(Catherine Rampell): We already achieved ‘energy independence.’ What good did it do us?

•   WP(David Ignatius): The U.S.-Russia conflict is heating up — in cyberspace

•   WP(Marc A. Thiessen): Think things are bad under Biden? Get ready for the blackouts.

•   WP(Sebastian Mallaby): What inflation struggles of the past can tell the Fed right now

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): The Pentagon Has a Supply-Chain Problem

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Even a Soft Landing Can Be Ugly for Investors

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Bernstein): How Well Is Joe Biden Actually Doing?

•   Bloomberg(Alexis Leondis): Headwinds for High Earners Are About to Get Worse

•   CNN(Ralph Izzo): How the US can stop relying on other countries for energy and fight climate change

•   Reuters(Andy Home): Funds cut bear bets on copper as China recovery hopes grow