Global Economic Monitor 220616

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street rallies to close higher after Fed statement

※   Fed announces biggest rate hike since 1994

※   Powell: does not expect 75 bps to be the norm

※   S&P 500 snaps five-session losing streak

※   Dow up 1%, S&P 500 up 1.46%, Nasdaq up 2.50%

•   Metals: Copper, aluminum bounce on upbeat China factory, auto data

•   Grains: U.S. wheat eases on harvest pressure; corn mostly firm, soy mixed

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Price Falls Toward $20,000 as Cryptocurrency Rout Deepens

•   한국: FOMC 경계감 고조…코스피 2,440대로 하락·코스닥 800선 붕괴

•   한국: 달러당 원화값 13년만에 최저…美연준 고강도 긴축 본격화

[Indicators]

•   US Benchmark rate: Fed Raises Rates by 0.75 Percentage Point, Largest Increase Since 1994

※   Officials signal a much more aggressive path of rate rises to combat inflation that is running at a 40-year high

※   Fed: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

※   Fed: Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the June 14-15 FOMC meeting

※   WSJ: The Fed Pushes the Envelope

※   WSJ: Transcript: Fed Chief Powell’s Postmeeting Press Conference

※   WSJ: What the Fed Rate Hike Means for Your Savings, Credit Cards and Loans

•   US Apr. Business inventories: U.S. business inventories rise strongly; sales slow

•   US May Retail sales: U.S. Retail Sales Declined in May as Inflation Stings Consumers

※   Consumers pulled back on car purchases, online shopping, and spent more at gasoline stations

※   WSJ: Retailers Are Getting Tanked

•   US May Export·Import prices: Import prices climb again due to oil and add to US inflation

•   US Jun. NAHB housing market index: U.S. home builder sentiment hits two-year low in June - NAHB

•   US Jun. Empire State manufacturing index: New York factory activity contracts again in June, Empire State survey shows

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications(MBA): Mortgage demand is now roughly half of what it was a year ago, as interest rates move even higher

•   Eurozone Apr. Balance of trade·Industrial production: Euro zone trade deficit almost doubles in April

•   China May Industrial production, etc.: China’s Hot Growth Summer Will Probably Disappoint

※   Data showed that growth is bottoming out. But a strong summer rebound probably isn’t in the cards.

•   China May Employment: China’s labor market improves in May; new measures to tackle youth unemployment

•   China May Home sales: China Home Sales Post First Month-on-Month Gain Since December

•   Japan Apr. Machinery orders: Japan's April machinery orders rise 10.8% on month

•   Brazil Benchmark rate: Brazil Raises Key Rate by 50 Points, Signals More to Come

•   한국 2021년 경제주체별 현금사용행태: 요즘은 지갑 얇은 게 대세…현금 사용 줄인 가구, 월 51만원만 썼다

•   한국 4월 통화 및 유동성: 예·적금에 뭉칫돈…4월 통화량 8.5兆 '껑충'

•   한국 5월 고용: 일상회복에 취업자 93만5천명 늘었지만 증가세 둔화 경고등

※   머니투데이: "한국은 완전고용 사회"?…실업률 3%, 그 뒤에 감춰진 그늘

•   한국 5월 자동차산업 동향: 5월 자동차 수출 친환경차 확대에 동월 최고…코로나19 이전 상회

•   한국 5월 주택가격: 수도권 집값 한 달 만에 다시 하락…월세 상승폭은 커져

•   한국 5월 부동산시장 소비자 심리조사: 전국 주택매매심리 4개월 만에 하락…보합국면 전환

[News]

•   WSJ: On Inflation, Economics Has Some Explaining to Do

•   WSJ: U.S., Allies Pledge New Help to Ukraine Against Russia Amid Growing Strains

※   NATO countries and 20 others commit more weapons to Kyiv as differences grow over how to balance fighting against diplomacy

•   WSJ: Macron Says Ukraine and Russia Must Eventually Talk

•   WSJ: China’s Xi Reaffirms Support for Moscow in Call With Putin

※   Call on the Chinese leader’s birthday suggests Beijing has little intention of dialing back its partnership with Moscow

•   WSJ: Russia’s Flagship Economic Forum Decouples From West

•   WSJ: Biden Pushes Fuel Makers to Boost Capacity, Criticizes Profits

•   WSJ: Risk of Recession Depends on Which Banker You Ask

•   WSJ: Oil-Supply Growth Expected to Lag Behind Demand Next Year

※   IEA: Oil Market Report - June 2022

•   WSJ: FDA Advisers Endorse Pfizer, Moderna Covid-19 Vaccines in Young Children

•   WSJ: Moderna to Study Its Covid-19 Vaccine in Babies as Young as 3 Months

•   WSJ: India Official’s Opposition to Agreements Unsettles WTO Meeting

•   WSJ: U.S. Home Equity Hits Highest Level on Record—$27.8 Trillion

•   WSJ: Bill Gates Says NFTs and Crypto Are ‘100%’ Based on Greater Fool Theory

•   WSJ: Natural Gas Could Start to Melt United Front Against Russia

•   WSJ: Tesla Tops List of Crashes Thought to Involve Driver-Assistance Technology

•   WSJ: Foxconn Starts Building a Plant for Electric-Vehicle Batteries in Taiwan

•   WSJ: Qualcomm’s Antitrust Fine for Payments to Apple Is Annulled by European Court

•   WSJ: GM, Ford CFOs Say They Are Preparing for Economic Slowdown

•   WSJ: Caterpillar Relocation to Texas Extends U.S. Manufacturing’s Southern Shift

•   WSJ: Why Rural Americans Keep Waiting for Fast Internet, Despite Billions Spent

•   NYT: The battle for Mariupol came down to a single factory. Will Sievierodonetsk go the same way?

•   NYT: Monkeypox Outbreak Poses ‘Real Risk’ to Public Health, W.H.O. Official Says

•   NYT: After a spring surge, confirmed new U.S. cases are leveling off.

•   NYT: Far-Right Republicans Press Closer to Power Over Future Elections

•   NYT: It’s Going to Be Dangerously Hot for 100 Million Americans

•   NYT: What the Changing Tech Market Means for California’s Economy

•   NYT: Russia tightens gas supplies to Germany and Italy.

•   NYT: Constructive Communication Between the U.S. and China Gets Harder

•   NYT: Saudi Arabia relaxes some Covid rules before the hajj.

•   NYT: Nuclear Is Back on the Table for a Green Future

•   WP: ‘Zero covid’ has many in China dreaming of leaving

•   WP: Libya oil output strangled from infighting in world starved of energy

•   FT: Russia reduces gas exports to Germany and Italy in ‘political’ move

※   Gazprom’s move raises fears Moscow is starting wider squeeze on European supplies in response to sanctions

•   FT: ECB to design new bond-buying plan to tackle market turmoil

※   Emergency meeting addresses surging borrowing costs in eurozone countries such as Italy

•   FT: What are the ECB’s options?

•   FT: Turkey rejects Nato offer of trilateral talks with Sweden and Finland

•   FT: Israel and Egypt to boost gas deliveries to EU

•   FT: Marine Le Pen’s RN gains ground after seeing off French far-right rival

•   FT: Poland ready to drop objection to minimum corporate tax deal

•   FT: Brexit trade friction caused 15% fall in UK-EU exports in first half of 2021

•   FT: China under pressure to reform debt market as foreign inflows slow

•   FT: Oil vs human rights: Biden’s controversial mission to Saudi Arabia

•   FT: Sanctions-hit Russian businessmen seek tips from Iran

•   FT: Oil baron’s Continental bid highlights sector dislike of Wall St ESG scrutiny

•   FT: Riskier borrowers under inflation pressure frozen out of US car loans

•   Bloomberg: Putin Has Reason to Slow-Walk a Ukraine Grain Deal

•   Bloomberg: World’s Central Banks Got It Wrong, and Economies Pay the Price

•   Bloomberg: Ukraine Steelmaker Says Russia Is Taking Metal From Mariupol

•   Bloomberg: UK Road Fuel Prices Surge to Record High as Fill-Up Nears £103

•   Bloomberg: UK Inflation Expert Warns BOE Should Halt Hikes Before Recession

•   Bloomberg: World’s Worst Dropout Rate Adds to Headaches for UK Workforce

•   Bloomberg: ‘Front-Load’ Rate Rises to Catch Up With Economies, Carney Says

•   Bloomberg: US Companies Still Not Fully Operating After Shanghai Lockdown

•   Bloomberg: Shanghai to Mass Test Whole City Every Weekend Till End July

•   Bloomberg: China’s Surprise Economic Rebound in May Propelled by Coal

•   Bloomberg: Putin’s Broken Market Link Puts Trades Worth Billions in Limbo

•   Bloomberg: Asia Energy Crunch Turns From Bad to Worse on US Export Fire

•   Bloomberg: Gazprom’s Gas Exports Tumble to Lowest Since at Least 2014

•   Bloomberg: Biden to Sign Ocean Shipping Bill Into Law Amid Inflation Fight

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: A Ragtag Band of Hackers Is Waging Cyberwar on Putin’s Supply Lines

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Janet Yellen Is Struggling at the Treasury Job She Never Wanted

•   Reuters: Kremlin says communication with Washington must continue

•   Reuters: ECB's Makhlouf: higher September hike could be more or less than 50 points

•   Reuters: ECB's Lagarde stresses rule of law in Brexit dispute

•   Reuters: Indonesian president sacks trade minister after palm oil export uproar

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE BP beefs up hydrogen team in bet on fuel's future

•   Reuters: Analysis: Markets suspect new ECB tool to address bond stress could mimic old tools

•   Reuters: Analysis: Ukrainian dreams of retaking Kherson hinge on Western weapons

•   Reuters: Analysis: Brazil likely to waive over $20 bln in tax revenue as Bolsonaro tries to spur economy

•   Reuters: Analysis: How it came to this: The Fed and White House's slow inflation awakening

•   CNBC: An aggressive Fed has global ramifications. Here are 3 ways the world could be hit

•   CNBC: Nearly two-thirds of millennial millionaires believe U.S. economy will be stronger by end of 2022, CNBC survey finds

•   CNBC: ‘Nobody’s immune to inflation’: These are the most expensive cities for the world’s wealthy

•   CNBC: Jeremy Siegel says 100 basis point rate hike is ‘medicine to stop this inflation’

•   MarketWatch: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz. ‘We are going to go into a really fast recession.’

•   MarketWatch: Three financial moves to make now after Fed’s biggest rate hike since 1994

•   SCMP: China refrains from policy rate cut, defying market expectations once again

•   SCMP: China’s semiconductor output in May rebounds as Covid-19 restrictions ease

•   SCMP: China’s bank runs highlight abuse among small-bank shareholders, despite crackdown

•   SCMP: China food security: corruption crackdown ensnares ex-chief of state grain reserves

•   SCMP: China’s party congress promotions to emphasise political security

•   Global Times: US anxiety to push decoupling with China in mineral supply chains 'a dangerous signal'

•   Caixin: Four Things to Know About China’s Plan to Go ‘All-Out’ on Infrastructure

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan to hold upper house election on July 10

•   Nikkei Asia: Kishida to become first Japanese leader at NATO summit

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan auto suppliers furlough workers due to supply snarls

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan's Docomo makes 'post-smartphone' move into industrial metaverse

•   Nikkei Asia: BOJ fights to maintain yield cap as overseas investors dump bonds

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: China feels slight unease in intimidating Japan with Russia

•   매경: 몸집 65만배 키운 코인담보대출 시장…긴축 직격탄에 붕괴 위기

•   매경: 비트코인 폭락에…테슬라 5800억, 넥슨 800억 물렸다

•   매경: 아프면 쉴 권리' 상병수당 내달 시범 도입…하루 4만4천원 지급

•   매경: 분양가상한제의 역설…"일정 미루자" 수도권 공급물량 반토막

•   매경: "택지비, 시세 맞춰 분양가에 반영해야…3년 의무거주도 폐지를"

•   매경: 2조 피해 나몰라라…野손잡은 화물연대, 안전운임 알박기 돌입

•   매경: "한전적자 놔두면 미래세대 더 큰 부담"…당정, 내달 전기료 인상 군불때기

•   매경: 로봇 오가는 현장에 1.8m 울타리…337조원 투자 막는 '대못' 뺀다

•   매경: 기록적 봄 가뭄에 채소값 급등 눈앞

•   매경: 5억 주담대 年이자 215만원 늘어난다

•   매경: 시중은행 대출금리 치솟는데…저축은행은 오히려 떨어진다고?

•   매경: 아이폰 갖다대면 결제 완료…'신한카드 터치결제M' 개시

•   매경: "업무 잘 알텐데 어쩌지"…'빠꼼이' 새 장관님에 긴장한 세종시

•   매경: 젊은 직원과 소통 애쓰는 장관…MZ세대 "회식 그만 좀 해요"

•   매경: 박정원 "두산테스나 세계 5위로 만들것"

•   매경: 쌍용차 신차 사전계약 1만대 깜짝 돌파…회생 파란불

•   매경: LG 로봇, 물류센터에 떴다…대한통운과 공급 업무협약

•   매경: "2000년 닷컴버블 붕괴와 비슷"…벤처업계, 성장서 '생존' 급선회

•   매경: [MK BUSINESS STORY] 빠르게 다가오는 전기차 시대, 전력관리에 '전력' 쏟고 있나요?

•   한경(P1): 기업들 '악몽' 현실이 됐다…"비상계획 세우다 날샐 판"

•   한경: 비대면 특수 줄고 인건비 상승…好시절 끝난 게임·IT

•   한경: 흑자 기대했던 리오프닝 기업도 '적자 비상'

•   한경(P1): "중대재해법 시행령 바꿔 경영 불확실성 해소"

•   한경: 이정식 장관 "최저임금 차등적용, 업종별 임금 데이터 갖춰지면 논의 가능"

•   한경(P1): 이재용, 반도체 장비 확보 총력전

•   한경: "이젠 삼성이 다 쓸어가나"…이재용에 TSMC·인텔 '초긴장'

•   한경: "사고 나면 CEO 구속하니 고령 기술자 못써"…산업현장 공포

•   한경: "규제 특수"…로펌·퇴직 관료만 신났다

•   한경: 화물 파업 고비 넘겼지만 '하투' 줄줄이 예고

•   한경: "비상시엔 현금"…기업 보유액 크게 늘었다

•   한경: 증권가 "공매도 금지해야…증시 바닥 찍고 반등할 것"

•   한경: "2200까지 밀릴 수도" vs "추가 하락 제한적"

•   서경(P1): “기업가정신이 이끄는 우주 혁명… 韓, 우주 초강국 역량 갖춰”[서울포럼 2022]

•   서경: 재정·통화·금융당국 16일 한자리 모인다

•   서경: SK온·포스코 ‘2차전지 공급망’ 동맹

•   서경: 치솟는 물가에…'욜로' 가고 '알뜰족' 온다

•   서경: 속도 빠른 최저임금 심의…8년만에 법정기한 지키나

•   조선(P1): 누리호의 도전 또 연기

•   조선(P1): “법인·유류세 내리고 노인연금 올린다”

•   조선(P1): [단독] 민간의 두 배에 LNG 사는 최대 업체 가스공사

•   조선: 추락하는 주식시장에 비상장 주식도 약세… 상장 철회도 이어져

•   조선: 스마트TV 13억대… 회사 운명 건 OS 점유율 경쟁

•   조선비즈: 日 수출규제, 尹정부서 풀릴까…외교부 “지소미아 종합적 해법 모색”

•   조선비즈: 한수원 사장, 핀란드 방문… 유럽 원전 시장 진출 포석

•   조선비즈: CSIS “北, 풍계리 핵실험장 정비작업 완료…새 움직임도 포착”

•   중앙: 반도체공장 대만 2년 걸릴때…한국은 짓는데 1년, 허가에 5년 [규제 STOP]

•   중앙: 롯데·GS·CJ도 뛰어든 바이오…삼바 “경쟁사 많을수록 좋다”

•   중앙: 10명 중 2명은 출근에 1시간 이상 걸린다

•   동아: ‘연금 건전성’ 15계단 떨어져 50위… 개혁 논의는 제자리

•   동아: 전체 화물차의 1.6%만 파업 참가하고도 산업계 ‘마비’ 위기 왜?

•   문화(P1): ‘文정부의 4대강 洑 해체’ 백지화 수순

•   문화: 재택·원격 ‘114만’… “탄력·선택적 근로시간제 개선을”

•   국민: [단독] 나토 회의때 한·미·일 정상회담 가능성… 한·일은 불투명

•   한겨레: 전기차 배터리 함부로 버리지 마라…재활용 표준화 나선다

•   머니투데이(P1): [단독]삼성 평택 찾는 당정, 尹대통령에 "이재용 '특사' 건의 검토"

•   아시아경제(P1): [1000대 기업 긴급 설문]'잿빛 전망' 10곳 중 7곳 "하반기 실적 급감"

•   아시아경제: [1000대 기업 긴급 설문]10곳 중 8곳 '글로벌 환경 위협적'…"대응책이 없다"

•   아시아경제: [1000대 기업 긴급 설문] "금리 2.0~3.0%까지 상승 전망"

•   아시아경제: [1000대 기업 긴급 설문]규제개혁 만족도 70.8점 "갈 길이 멀다"

•   아시아경제: [1000대 기업 긴급 설문]尹정부 친기업 드라이브 '중대재해법 완화'에 기대감

•   아시아경제: 세계 4위 '특허민국'…IP무역수지는 만년적자[테크전쟁, 선진국의 탄생]

•   디지털타임스: `갤Z플립4` vs `아이폰14`… 하반기 스마트폰 대전 달군다

•   이데일리(P1): [ESF 2022]“기후위기發 팬데믹 또 올 것…탈탄소 아닌 옵션B는 없다”

•   이데일리: [ESF 2022]“기온 상승 1.5℃ 막으려면 탄소 43% 줄여야…3년내 저감 실행 본격화 필요”

•   이데일리: [단독]‘그림의 떡’ 신용대출…은행, 고신용자에만 문열었다

•   이데일리: "대출이자보다 월세가 싸요"…‘주춤’한 전세대출, 금리 얼마나 올랐길래

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국에서 7613명 확진…어제보다 1천301명 적어

•   전자신문(P1): 삼성 폴더블 올해 1500만대 출하 목표...中 부품 확대

•   전자신문(P1): 한진 이어 하림까지 패소…공정위 잇단 헛발질

•   전자신문: [르포] 로봇이 나르고 AI가 분석…스마트 물류 기술 뽐내

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Clemens Fuest): Don’t Raise the Eurozone’s Public-Debt Limit

•   Project Syndicate(Jamal Ibrahim Haidar, Adeel Malik): How Foreign Powers Could Break Lebanon’s Gridlock

•   Project Syndicate(Joseph S. Nye, Jr.): Eight Lessons from the Ukraine War

•   Project Syndicate(Herman Van Rompuy, Brigid Laffan): Adding Ambition to Europe’s Unity

•   FT(Editorial Board): Why Ukraine’s EU candidacy should be approved

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): ECB uses emergency meeting to get back on the front foot

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): The Fed rumour mill

•   FT(Arvind Subramanian): Five fateful shifts that will shape the future world economy

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): President Biden’s Saudi Arabia Flip Flop

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Federal Reserve and Recession Fears

•   WSJ(Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.): Inflation and the Trump Factor

•   WSJ(Jason L. Riley): For Relief From Labor Shortages, Look to the Border

•   WSJ(Richard Bernstein): America’s ‘Midway Measures Trap’ May Doom Ukraine

•   WSJ(Judy Shelton): Fed Interest Hikes May End Up Having Unintended Consequences

•   WSJ(Jonathan Spyer): Israel’s Shadow War With Iran Goes Nonnuclear

•   NYT(Ross Douthat): Trump and Sanders Opened Doors. Inflation Is Closing Them.

•   NYT(Steven Rattner): The Fed Should Make Amends for Its Mistakes

•   NYT(Brad Lander): Investors Deserve to Know the Climate Risks Their Assets Face

•   NYT(Alex Kingsbury): Who Is Financing Trump’s ‘Big Lie’ Caucus? Corporations You Know.

•   NYT(Ashley Townshend, James Crabtree): The U.S. Is Losing Its Military Edge in Asia, and China Knows It

•   WP(E.J. Dionne Jr.): Inflation could put election deniers in charge of our democracy

•   WP(Sebastian Mallaby): With Powell’s rate hike, the inflation fight begins in earnest

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): It’s Not ESG Driving Big Oil Away From Its Biggest Reserves

•   Bloomberg(Conor Sen): Housing Market Cooldown Will Only Lead to More Dysfunction

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): Bond Market Spooks ECB Into Doing...Nothing

•   Bloomberg(Brooke Sutherland): Caterpillar and Boeing Show Headquarters Don’t Matter

•   Bloomberg(Leonid Bershidsky): Putin Prepares to Declare Himself a Conqueror

•   MarketWatch(Peter Morici): Biden's infrastructure bill is hardly 'monumental'

•   MarketWatch(Lance Roberts): The Fed is aggressively raising interest rates — an earnings recession comes next

•   Fox News(Rick Perry): Historic $5 gas exposes Biden's energy delusion