Global Economic Monitor 220628

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street ends down, pulled lower by growth stocks

※   Rising crude prices boost energy stocks

※   Durable goods, pending home sales surprise to the upside

※   Indexes down: Dow 0.2%, S&P 0.3%, Nasdaq 0.8%

•   Natural gas: Gas Rises as Europe Struggles to Fill Russian Supply Gap

•   Metals: Copper steadies, but recession fears dominate mood

•   Grains: U.S. wheat futures hit lowest price since February; corn down, soy up

•   한국: 코스피, 외국인 '사자'에 2,400선 회복…환율 1,286원대로 내려

[Indicators]

•   US May Durable goods orders, Pending home sales: Big-Ticket Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales Point to Steady Demand

•   China May Industrial profits: China Industrial Profits Fall at Slower Pace as Covid Curbs Ease

•   Zimbabwe Benchmark rate: World’s Most Aggressive Central Bank Raises Key Rate to 200%

[News]

•   WSJ: Russian Missiles Hit Ukraine Shopping Mall, Zelensky Says, as G-7 Leaders Pledge More Aid

※   Attack comes as Russia advances in east and global powers discuss how to support Kyiv and squeeze Moscow

•   WSJ: Zelensky Asks for Western Help to Push Russia Out of Ukraine by Year End

•   WSJ: Russian Gas Cuts Threaten World’s Largest Chemicals Hub

•   WSJ: Larry Summers Nailed Inflation. But Is He Right on What Comes Next?

•   WSJ: Bidding Wars Overheated the Home-Buyer Market, Now They’re Coming for Renters

•   WSJ: Shanghai Has Reopened, but Not Disneyland

•   WSJ: It’s What Beijing’s Party Boss May Not Have Said That Shows Zero-Covid Fatigue

•   WSJ: Xinjiang Law Shows Reach—and Limits—of U.S. Economic Power

•   WSJ: India’s Finance Minister Defends Increased Purchases of Russian Oil

•   WSJ: India Arrests Rights Activist at Forefront of Legal Battles Over 2002 Gujarat Riots

•   WSJ: Rising Rates, Tech Pullback Pummel Convertible Bonds

•   WSJ: Germany’s Volkswagen Nears Deal to Sell Stake in Electrify America to Siemens

•   WSJ: Taiwan Company Plans Texas Chip Wafer Factory—if Congress Approves Incentives

•   WSJ: As Gas Prices Surge, Stations Now Hold Up to $175 of Your Money When You Swipe

•   NYT: Global Food Crisis Tests Western Resolve to Retain Russia Sanctions

•   NYT: Biden Irked by Democrats Who Won’t Take ‘Yes’ for an Answer on 2024

•   NYT: ‘An Invisible Cage’: How China Is Policing the Future

•   WP: NATO to boost high-readiness forces in ‘biggest overhaul’ since Cold War

※   NATO will sharply increase the number of forces it keeps at a high readiness level to 300,000 in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

※   The document will also for the first time outline NATO’s view on China as a challenger

•   FT: G7 ready to explore caps on energy prices to curb Russian revenues

※   Crude price cap should not just apply to Russia, says Macron, as leaders seek to ease energy pressures

•   FT: G7 countries to hit Russia with new sanctions

•   FT: The new recessionary threat to global trade

•   FT: Severodonetsk retreat ‘tactical’, Ukraine military spy chief says

•   FT: Ukraine’s richest oligarch launches lawsuit against Russia

•   FT: Boris Johnson prepares to extend tariffs to protect UK steel industry

•   FT: Johnson wins Commons vote on bill to rip up N Ireland protocol

•   FT: Covid in China: Xi’s fraying relationship with the middle class

•   FT: Japan tells business and public to save power to avert Tokyo blackout

•   FT: Philippines tycoon targets control of nation’s biggest gasfield

•   FT: ExxonMobil chief predicts continuing surge in oil markets

•   FT: Africa’s looming urban population explosion

•   Bloomberg: Russia Slips Into Historic Default as Sanctions Muddy Next Steps

•   Bloomberg: Putin to Leave Russia for First Time Since the Ukraine Invasion

•   Bloomberg: G-7 Edges Closer to Ditching Pledge to End Fossil-Fuel Financing

•   Bloomberg: EU Eyes Gas Demand Cuts to Confront Russian Supply Halt Risk

•   Bloomberg: Central Banks Have Narrow Path to Soft Landing, BIS Chief Says

•   Bloomberg: Yellen Presses Europeans on Price-Cap Proposal for Russia’s Oil

•   Bloomberg: Angst Over US Inventory Pileups Is Belied by Still-Solid Sales

•   Bloomberg: Financial Stress Spans All US Income Brackets, Survey Shows

•   Bloomberg: Hottest US Housing Markets Now Have Bigger Share of Price Cuts

•   Bloomberg: EU May Be Trying to Defuse Kaliningrad Standoff With Eased Rules

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Pivot Toward Rate Hikes Feeds Fears of New Bond Crisis

•   Bloomberg: Wait for It, ECB Tells Markets Trading First Rate Hike in Years

•   Bloomberg: German Gas Crisis Is Manageable, But Next Steps Are Hard: Chart

•   Bloomberg: Britain’s Battered Economy Is Sliding Toward a Breaking Point

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s Coal Plant Comeback Drives Up Carbon Permit Prices

•   Bloomberg: Central Banks in Asia Spend Billions to Slow Currency Declines

•   Bloomberg: US, Taiwan Aides Hold Opening Talks on Road Map for Trade Deals

•   Bloomberg: PBOC to Keep Policy Supportive for China Economy, Governor Says

•   Bloomberg: China’s Xi Jinping Keeps Hong Kong Guessing on In-Person Visit

•   Bloomberg: Heat Wave to Test China’s Ability to Stabilize Its Coal Market

•   Bloomberg: Iran and US Heading to Doha in Latest Bid to Save Nuclear Accord

•   Bloomberg: India’s Economy Shows Spark on Pent-Up Demand After Reopenings

•   Bloomberg: Sri Lanka Is Put on Virtual Lockdown as Fuel Supplies Are Halted

•   Bloomberg: Ecuador to Stop Pumping Oil in 48 Hours, Energy Ministry Warns

•   Bloomberg: Eskom Says Most Workers at Power Plants, Sporadic Protests

•   Bloomberg: Russian Crude Flows Slump, But It’s Likely to Prove Temporary

•   Bloomberg: Metals Rebound From Their Worst Week in a Year on China Optimism

•   Bloomberg: Food Inflation Relief Is Within Sight as Crops and Crude Pull Back

•   Bloomberg: Global Chip Hub Taiwan to Raise Power Rates on Pricey Fuel

•   Bloomberg: Companies' Net-Zero Emissions Goals Don't Add Up

•   Reuters: EU states agree to 40% renewables target by 2030, Germany says

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Japan pushes to remove zero-emission vehicle target from G7 statement, draft shows

•   Reuters: Analysis: Food export bans, from India to Argentina, risk fueling inflation

•   CNBC: 58% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck after inflation spike — including 30% of those earning $250,000 or more

•   CNBC: The housing market slowdown is showing up in shipping data from China

•   Fox Business: Biden unveils plan to counter China despite paving way for more Chinese solar imports

•   SCMP: US urged to plan minelaying campaign to halt mainland Chinese attack on Taiwan

•   SCMP: US-led rare earths pact satisfies South Korea’s ‘definite need’ to cut China dependency

•   SCMP: Chinese prototype a precursor to hypersonic passenger travel anywhere in the world in 2 hours, says team

•   Caixin: Chinese Automakers Face Persistent Chip Shortage

•   Caixin: China’s Anti-Monopoly Law Revised to Tighten Supervision on Platform Economy

•   Nikkei Asia: BOJ bond holdings plunged into the red as yields rose: estimates

•   Nikkei Asia: Bank of Japan's government bond holdings exceed 50% of total

•   Nikkei Asia: Australia's carbon past and present haunt green 'superpower' push

•   매경(P1): "구청 발목행정에 40억 들인 공장 흉물됐다"…민원 年 756건으로 급증

•   매경: 일손 놓은 지자체…소상공인 15만명, 코로나 지원금 누락

•   매경: 군수가 자기땅 '셀프 인허가'…막강권한이 부패 씨앗으로

•   매경(P1): 4인가구 전기료, 月 1750원 인상

•   매경: 규정 바꿔가며 전기료 올렸지만…30조 적자에 추가 인상설도

•   매경: '6% 물가' 기름붓는 전기·가스요금…공공요금發 고물가 도미노

•   매경: "文정부 탈원전 청구서 11조원, 한전이 떠안았다" 주한규 서울대 교수

•   매경(P1): 주식 코인 이어 집값마저…"하반기 주택시장 더 가파른 하락"

※   건설산업연구원: 2022년 하반기 건설·부동산 경기 전망 세미나

•   매경: 용산·강남마저 집값 주춤…노도강은 하락세 확산

•   매경: 韓 위험노출액, 러 비중 0.4%…유럽경제 경색땐 후폭풍

•   매경: 尹대통령 지지율, 첫 부정평가 우세

•   매경: 기업 60% "원가 인상분 가격에 반영"

※   한국은행: 「지역경제보고서」(2022년 6월)

•   매경: [세종 인사이드] 사방팔방에서 "규제개혁"…세종시 실무부처 골머리

•   매경: 美가 띄운 'SMR'…두산·삼성·GS 사업 탄력

•   매경: 정제마진 사상최대 29.5달러…정유사, 2분기도 역대급 실적

•   매경: 예금이자보다 못한 MMF 수익…한달새 자금 20조원 빠져나가

•   한경(P1): 민간 금융사 연일 압박…짙어지는 '新관치'

•   한경(P1): AI반도체에 5년간 1조 투입…전문인력 7000명 이상 양성

•   한경(P1): [단독] "이렇게 심각한 줄은…" 디스플레이 부품도 동났다

•   한경: '송해·터틀맨'처럼 돌아가신 부모님이 가상인간으로…괜찮을까

•   한경: 한전·자회사 9곳 경영진 성과급 반납

•   한경: 가정용 전기료, OECD 4번째로 저렴

•   한경: 올해 역대급 실적 낸 해운업계…엄한 데 돈 쓰느라 성장은 뒷전

•   한경: 물량 쌓이고 가격 떨어지자…잠잠해진 '8월 전세대란설'

•   한경: ICT기업, 車 인포테인먼트 사업 뛰어드는 까닭

•   서경(P1): [단독] 車수출마저…한국, 중국에 처음 추월당했다

•   서경: 파격지원 전기차 앞세워 中 물량공세…韓 수출 정체땐 연말 100만대 뒤처져

•   서경: 강성노조 파업·임단협 갈등 해마다 반복…생산차질에 국내 대신 해외투자 눈 돌려

•   서경: 韓 보조금 먹고 씽씽…전기버스 10대중 4대는 중국산

•   서경(P1): 사의 표명한 문성현 경사노위 위원장 "노동개혁 경사노위 중심으로 가동돼야"

•   서경(P1): [단독] LTV 규제 비웃듯…公기관 '황제대출' 여전

•   서경: 빗속에 사라진 태양광…중부지방 폭우 때 발전비중 1.9% 그쳐

•   서경: 夏鬪 긴장감 고조…민주노총 '6만명' 내달 2일 모인다

•   서경: 금융채 금리 들쑥날쑥…금리 압박도 무용지물

•   서경: '인플레 공포' 속 호황…고개드는 '아트버블'

•   조선(P1): [NOW] 65세 이상 취업률, 한국 ‘씁쓸한 1위’

•   조선: 6월 전력수요량 역대 최고… 공급예비율 벌써 10% 미만

•   조선: 보복소비 줄자 쌓이는 재고… 가전, 프리미엄 전략 안간힘

•   조선: “재료값 올라서 납품가 못 맞추겠다” 늘어나는 계약분쟁

•   조선비즈: [단독] 尹정부, 이르면 8월 중 美 주도 IPEF 협상 개시

•   조선비즈: [세종풍향계] 8년 만에 돌아온 추경호 취임 50일, 기재부의 변화…”부총리가 내 이름 불러주네”

•   조선비즈: “줍줍 인기도 시들”… ‘분양가 할인’까지 재등장한 청약시장

•   조선비즈: 천정부지 기름값에 ‘자차 통근’ 포기… 출퇴근 시간대 ‘따릉이’ 선점 전쟁

•   중앙: [View & Review] 6월 죽쑤는 국내 증시 ‘빚투’ 탓? “신용융자 잔고 5조원 더 줄어야”

•   중앙: 봉쇄 후폭풍…중국 진출 기업 55% “사업축소·철수 고려”

•   동아(P1): ‘한국산 1호’ 코로나 백신 이르면 다음달 접종

•   동아: 블록체인-메타버스-NFT 활용 ‘웹3.0 플랫폼’ 가상자산 주목해야

•   문화: [단독]尹정부 ‘위안부 합의’복원 추진…한일관계 개선 나선다

•   문화: [단독]이재용 ‘기술 초격차’…새 ‘R&D기지’ 건설

•   세계: “세종시 각종 위원회 과다… 통폐합할 것”

•   세계: 1인당 나랏빚 2000만원 돌파… 재정건전성 논의 급하다

•   세계: 새 단체장들 메가시티 ‘동상이몽’… “유불리 따져야” 제동 [민선 8기 - 지방권력 대이동]

•   머니투데이: '4중고' 역경 속 K-배터리 3사 2분기 실적 엇갈린다

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 유류 30% ↑ 밀 26% ↑...고물가, 서민층에 더 고통

•   헤럴드경제: “컵라면도 챙겨가요”...선넘은 고환율에 유학생도 울상

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 중기도 법인세 부담 낮춘다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "같은 서울인데 강남이 10억 비싸"… 집값 양극화 짙어졌다

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독] 한전, 작년 억대 연봉자 3200명 사상최다

•   아시아경제(P1): 정부, '아파트 임대사업자' 부활 추진

•   아시아경제: 로봇산업 3강 목표…'투자' 무장한 기업이 뛴다[테크전쟁, 선진국의 탄생]

•   아시아경제: 산업용로봇은 인력양성…서비스용은 투자유치 '투 트랙'[테크전쟁, 선진국의 탄생]

•   디지털타임스: `10조` 폭스콘의 역습… 현대車·LG와 전기차 `쩐의 전쟁`

•   이데일리(P1): 실업자 양산' 부메랑된 최저임금…"직원 줄여야 생존"

•   이데일리: [단독]'허위 매출'로 보증...당국, 자영업자 대출과의 전쟁

•   이데일리: 원자재가·운임 폭등에 재생에너지 ‘시름’…“정부 지원 절실”

•   이데일리: 삼성, 2억 화소 이미지센서 연내 고객사 공급.. 휴대폰 탑재는?

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 9299명 확진, 1주 전보다 늘어…감소세 소강

•   전자신문(P1): [단독]마이데이터 사설인증 시장 '네이버 싹쓸이'...44개 기업 중 39개

•   전자신문: “5대 거래소 협의체, 독과점 촉진”…코인마켓들 아우성

•   전자신문: 두산테스나, 시스템 반도체 후공정 기업 엔지온 인수 착수

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Howard Davies): When Central Bankers Become the Target

•   Project Syndicate(Ana Palacio): Reawakening NATO

•   Project Syndicate(Shang-Jin Wei): Three Better Alternatives to Biden’s Gasoline Tax Holiday

•   Project Syndicate(이근): How Realistic Are China’s Semiconductor Ambitions?

•   Project Syndicate(Stephen S. Roach): Wrong on the Dollar – for Now

•   FT(Editorial Board): Nato must show it is serious about defending its eastern flank

•   FT(Rana Foroohar): The high cost of producing cheap food

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): Why the US could be the real winner in the energy wars

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Recession rally?

•   FT(Patti Waldmeir): Food deserts deepen urban America’s racial disparities

•   FT(Lex): Russia/sanctions: G7 seeks more damage to the war machine, less to its own economies

•   WSJ(John H. Cochrane): The Federal Reserve Can’t Cure Inflation by Itself

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): End of the German Idyll

•   NYT(Dorothy Wickham): Can You Blame Poor Countries Like Mine for Turning to China?

•   WP(Asli Aydintasbas): Why Erdogan should green-light Sweden and Finland’s NATO bids

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): George Soros, Mahathir and the Legacy of 1997

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): Russian Oil Sanctions Over Ukraine Upended the World. Gold Sanctions Won’t

•   Bloomberg(Conor Sen): Homebuilders Still Find Plenty of Demand in a Cooling Market

•   Bloomberg(Justin Fox): Gasoline's Demise Isn’t Going to Be Cheap

•   Bloomberg(James Stavridis): What to Expect From NATO’s New Strategic Concept

•   Reuters(John Kemp): India’s electricity shortages ease as wind and hydro output rises