Global Economic Monitor 220615

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Fed risk drubs stocks; dollar, bond yields soar

•   US: Bond Slide Deepens, With No End in Sight

•   UK: Pound Sinks Below $1.20 as Traders Eye Gap in BOE, Fed Rate Path

•   Japan: Yen Slides Past 1998 Low as Rate Gap Heralds More Losses

•   Natural gas: Gas Surges in Europe Amid Lower Russian Supply and US LNG Delay

•   Metals: Aluminium hits seven-month low on fears recession would hit demand

•   Iron ore: Iron Ore Slides Ahead of Key China Data as Outbreaks Continue

•   Grains: Corn, wheat, soy fall amid decline in financial markets

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Price Dips Below $21,000 as Crypto Firms Announce Layoffs

•   Cryptocurrency: 국내 상장 스테이블코인 붕괴 조짐…가상자산 폭풍전야

•   한국: 코스피, 1년 7개월만에 2,500선 붕괴…2,492.97 마감

•   한국: 원·달러 환율 2년 3개월 만에 최고점··· 원화 가치 하락 이어지나

•   한국: 국채금리 또 연고점…3년물 年 3.548%

[Indicators]

•   US May PPI: A Key Inflation Reading Capturing Wholesale Prices Rose Again in May

※   Producer-price index rose 0.8%, double the April reading

•   US May NFIB Business optimism index: U.S. small-business sentiment dips in May, NFIB survey shows

•   Germany Jun. ZEW economic sentiment: German investor morale improves in June though risks remain ahead

•   India May WPI: India's wholesale price inflation runs at 30-year high, makes rate hikes more likely

•   Argentina May CPI: Argentina’s Annual Inflation Reaches 61% as Investors Worry

•   한국 5월 ICT 수출: 5월 ICT 수출 202억달러… 전년 동월대비 13.9% 급증

•   한국 5월 농수산식품 수출: 농수산식품 수출 ‘훨훨’… 2021년비 16% 증가

[News]

•   WSJ: Former New York Fed Chief Dudley Expects 0.75-Point Rate Rise This Week

•   WSJ: The Fed Pricked the Everything Bubble

•   WSJ: Biden Weighs Ending Some China Tariffs Soon in Response to Inflation

※   Administration will decide in the coming weeks on Trump-era levies, as business groups push to lift them and unions seek their extension

•   WSJ: U.S. Won’t Hit Borrowing Limit Until Second Half of 2023

•   WSJ: Russian Forces Destroy Last Bridge to Key Eastern Ukrainian City

•   WSJ: Fears of Renewed Russian Strikes Hang Over Return to Kharkiv

•   WSJ: The 19th-Century Technology Driving Russia’s Latest Gains in Ukraine: Railroad

•   WSJ: Ukraine’s State Energy Company Keeps Russian Gas Flowing as War Rages

•   WSJ: Treasury to Extend Sanctions Carve-Out for Russian Energy Payments

•   WSJ: OPEC Oil Output Fell in May, Adding to Pressure on Cartel

※   OPEC MOMR June 2022

•   WSJ: Jan. 6 Committee Splits Over Possible Criminal Referral for Trump

•   WSJ: FDA Should Authorize Moderna’s Vaccine for Ages 6 to 17, Advisers Say

•   WSJ: Republicans Aim to Combat Inflation With Tax, Trade Policies

•   WSJ: Bull Market’s Winners Dragged the S&P 500 Into a Bear Market

•   WSJ: Crypto Legislation Could Undermine Market Regulations, Gensler Says

•   WSJ: Coinbase to Lay Off 18% of Staff as Cryptocurrencies Continue to Struggle

•   WSJ: As Bitcoin and Other Cryptos Fall, Digital-Asset Firms Pump Brakes on Deals

•   WSJ: Chinese Tech Stocks Will Struggle to Buck Global Blues

•   WSJ: Caterpillar to Move Global Headquarters to Texas From Illinois

•   WSJ: Baby Formula Shortage Spurs Stockpiling, Data Show

•   WSJ: BP Bets Big on Giant ‘Green Hydrogen’ Project in Australia

•   WSJ: Power Company NextEra Plans to Cut Carbon Emissions to Close to Nothing by 2045

•   WSJ: Covid-19 Shipping Boom Drives Land Rush Near Ports

•   NYT: North of Kyiv, the Russians Retreated. But the War Never Left.

•   NYT: A Link to Besieged Ukrainians Is Cut, as Allies Question Strategy

•   NYT: The loss of a final bridge to Sievierodonetsk may hurt Ukraine’s ability to hold its ground.

•   NYT: On Russia, Europe Weighs Competing Goals: Peace and Punishment

•   NYT: Inflation and Price Gouging

•   NYT: Why Gas Prices Are So High

•   NYT: Russian gas flows to Germany get snarled in Canada.

•   NYT: On Climate Change’s Front Lines, Hard Lives Grow Even Harder

•   WP: Russia made nearly $100B from fuel exports in war’s first 100 days, report says

•   WP: Why an energy crisis and $5 gas aren’t spurring a green revolution

•   FT: EU looks to Israel as it battles Russian energy ‘blackmail’

•   FT: Double blow to Europe’s gas supplies sparks price surge

•   FT: ECB has ‘no limits’ in defence of euro from debt turmoil, says executive

•   FT: Are quantitative tightening fears overblown?

•   FT: Christopher Pissarides: ‘Debt and inflation could see us lose control’

•   FT: German beer drinkers face higher prices at the bottom of the glass

•   FT: EU risks creating ‘false expectations’ with Ukraine’s EU candidacy, Portugal PM says

•   FT: EU seeks to convince Poland to unblock corporate taxation deal

•   FT: Surging borrowing costs take Italy ‘close to the danger zone’

•   FT: Germany plans to base extra Nato troops at home rather than Lithuania

•   FT: UK labour market remains hot despite stalling economy

•   FT: UK demand for new homes outstrips supply despite economic outlook

•   FT: Northern Ireland protocol: the poison pill of consent

•   FT: Record cost of diesel fuel courses through US economy

•   FT: India attacks rich countries over vaccine charges and fishing

•   FT: ESG’s legal showdown: ‘There’s nothing to suggest DWS is a one off’

•   FT: Alibaba and Tencent’s darkening clouds

•   FT: BioNTech’s second act: can it transform the fight against cancer?

•   FT: How the pandemic has changed what we wear to work

•   Bloomberg: Russia Hides Budget Spending But Shows How Ruble Hit Oil Revenue

•   Bloomberg: Corporate ‘Self-Sanctioning’ of Russia Has US Fearing Economic Blowback

•   Bloomberg: US Export Controls Are Putting a Stranglehold on Russia, Commerce Official Says

•   Bloomberg: Biden Ally Floats 21% Surtax on Oil Profits to Blunt Inflation

•   Bloomberg: Larry Summers, Robert Gordon Square Off Over Fed’s Task to Rein In Inflation

•   Bloomberg: Another Pandemic Coming? White House Prepares to Unveil Biodefense Plan

•   Bloomberg: Stagflation Fears Surge and ‘Sentiment Is Dire’ in BofA Survey

•   Bloomberg: UK Jobs Market May Be Loosening With Surprise Drop in Median Pay

•   Bloomberg: European Heat Wave Expected to Push Temperatures to Scorching Heights

•   Bloomberg: Key EU Parliament Groups Reject Green Label for Gas, Nuclear

•   Bloomberg: France Proposes Stronger EU Shield Against Carbon Price Spikes

•   Bloomberg: UK Real Wages Post Their Biggest Drop in Two Decades

•   Bloomberg: China Data to Show Contraction in May With Few Recovery Signs

•   Bloomberg: Beijing Cases Hit Three-Week High as Covid Czar Urges Action

•   Bloomberg: China Diplomat’s Transfer Upends Foreign Minister Predictions

•   Bloomberg: China City Accused of Using Covid Health Codes to Stop Protests

•   Bloomberg: China’s Massive Hydro Energy Storage Goals May Be Getting Bigger

•   Bloomberg: Modi to Hire One Million People to Fill Indian Government Jobs

•   Bloomberg: Pakistani Province Makes Friday Work-From-Home to Save Energy

•   Bloomberg: Iran Says Nuclear Talks Ongoing Through EU’s Top Envoy

•   Bloomberg: Looming Debt Crunch Positions Laos as Next Possible Asia Default

•   Bloomberg: The World’s Most Important Market Has a Big and Repetitive Problem

•   Bloomberg: Big Money in Stock Market Is In Mad Dash to Get Out of Fed’s Way

•   Bloomberg: Russia Sanctions Leave Nord Stream Turbine Stranded Abroad

•   Bloomberg: Gazprom Caps Flows Via Key EU Route by 40% Amid Technical Issues

•   Bloomberg: Ukraine Grain Exporters Carve Out New Route Via Baltic Sea

•   Bloomberg: Top US Port Enlists White House Help to Clear Rail-Cargo Logjam

•   Bloomberg: China’s Geely Takes Over Alibaba-Backed Smartphone Maker

•   Bloomberg: Railroad, Union Labor Fight Moves Toward Biden Intervention

•   Reuters: Exclusive: OPEC sees global oil demand growth slowing in 2023, sources say

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Germany's refinery dilemma tests Russian oil ban resolve

•   Reuters: China set to keep medium-term rate unchanged on Wednesday, poll shows

•   Reuters: China attack on Taiwan would hit global trade more than Ukraine war, says Taiwan

•   Reuters: Hydrogen will give U.S. natgas pipes new life in carbon-free world

•   Reuters: Energy company execs say fossil fuels still important in energy transition

•   Reuters: Analysis: Weak pound and forceful Fed pressure Bank of England to act big

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. stocks' bear market growl could beckon recession

•   AP: WHO convenes experts to decide if monkeypox is an emergency

•   CNN: No recession alarm bells for Corporate America ... yet

•   CNBC: Real estate firms Compass and Redfin announce layoffs as housing market slows

•   CNBC: BYD is selling so many electric cars it’s become one of the top three automakers in China

•   MarketWatch: Financial markets are ‘fragile’ ahead of Fed’s decision as some traders and strategists see risk of an instant recession

•   Fox Business: Biden falsely claims inflation 'worse everywhere but here,' but US rate higher than most developed countries

•   SCMP: Shanghai merchants, hard-hit by Covid-19 lockdown, delay reopening of Qipu Road clothing market, demand rent relief

•   SCMP: China’s consumption problem rooted in fears and uncertainties, while vouchers have limited appeal

•   SCMP: For China’s elite graduates, career dreams take a back seat to stability in coronavirus-hit job market

•   Global Times: Update: Yang-Sullivan meeting draws bottom line for US

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan seeks to produce cutting-edge 2-nm chips as soon as 2025

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan to centralize pandemic response under new agency

•   Nikkei Asia: Gaffe or message? Kuroda remark on prices hints at BOJ's plans

•   Nikkei Asia: Internet Explorer shutdown to cause Japan headaches 'for months'

•   매경(P1): 화물연대 총파업 끝…물류 뚫린다

•   매경: 물류대란 일단 봉합…안전운임제 이견 못좁혀 '불씨' 여전

•   매경: 기업들 "셧다운은 피했다" 안도…생산·출하차질 2조원대 손실

•   매경(P1): 주택담보대출, 너마저…年 8% 금리 닥친다

•   매경: 금리폭등에 놀란 빚투족…"하우스푸어 될라" 전전긍긍

•   매경: 강남 사는 부자들, 이것 투자비중 확 늘렸네

•   매경: 美자동차·반도체 간판주 무너지자…인버스에 올라탄 불개미

•   매경(P1): 배민 기업가치 35조…식품업 전체보다 커

•   매경: 유류세 리터당 57원 추가인하 추진…尹대통령 "물가대응 모든 조치"

•   매경: 개인 맞춤형 식단 처방하는 시대…'식품업계 테슬라' 나온다

•   매경: '순수 국내 기술' 누리호, 곧 우주가는데...소재는 美日 수입 투성이

•   매경: 한계기업 비중 15%…2010년 이후 최고

•   매경: 스타트업에 닥친 '투자보릿고개'…月 자금유치 1조로 뚝

•   매경: "美스타트업 10년 호황 끝나"…한파 먼저 닥친 실리콘밸리

•   매경: 연일 신저가 쓰는 삼성전자…증권가 "5만3000원 갈 수도"

•   매경: 반도체학과 정원 늘려도…기업은 "석박사가 필요해요"

•   한경(P1): 기업 잡는 '모래주머니' 3000개 더 있다

•   한경: 매년 폐지·완화되는 규제의 10배 이상이 새로 생겨

•   한경: "1kg 2억인데 쓰레기통에 버려진다"…바이오기업 대표 한숨

•   한경(P1): 몸값 8.5조 카카오모빌리티, MBK파트너스가 인수 추진

•   한경: 추경호 "복합위기 시작됐다"

•   한경: "지금 물가상승은 공급 충격 여파…금리인상 효과 얼마나 있겠나"

•   한경: SK이노, 美 연료전지 벤처에 390억 투자

•   한경: "문재인 정부 땐 좋았는데…" 새 정부 들어 집값 뚝 떨어진 동네

•   한경: 中企 인력난 숨통 트이나

•   서경(P1): 무너지는 자산시장…가계·기업이 위험하다

•   서경: "더이상 물 탈 여력 없다"…거덜나는 계좌에 절규하는 가계

•   서경: 1년새 신용대출금리 2%P 올라…평균 이자 160만원 늘어

•   서경: 식자재값에 번지는 기름값…장바구니 물가도 '쇼크'

•   서경: 원자재·물류난에 임금 인상까지…대·중기 막론하고 '곡소리'

•   서경: 금리 충격에 회사채 냉각…한전채도 4% 웃돌아

•   서경(P1): [단독] 재건축·재개발 이주비 법으로 금지…조합 '날벼락'

•   서경(P1): "민간 참여·첨단인재 양성이 '뉴스페이스 시대' 성공 열쇠"

•   서경: 韓 우주산업 매출 전세계 0.1%…"기업 수익창출 시스템 마련 필수"

•   서경: 자영업 덮친 인플레…치킨·피자집도 다 문 닫았다

•   서경: "드라이브는 이제 부자 취미" 기름값 폭등에 서민들 '한숨'

•   조선(P1): 野, 시행령 통제법 결국 발의

•   조선: 주가급락에 빚투족 비명… ‘반대 매매’ 계좌 한달새 6배로

•   조선: [단독] 정부 ‘코로나 후유증 연구보고서’ 입수해 살펴보

•   조선: 탄소배출 안 줄이면... 40년 내 하루 내린 비로 반포대교 잠길수도

•   조선: [단독] 부회장들이 팀장... SK, 가장 직급 높은 TF 만들었다, 왜

•   조선: 사고만 쳤다하면, 회사 이름부터 바꾸더라

•   조선: 도넛 사들고, 직원에 90도 인사하는 사장님

•   조선: ‘기업 프렌들리’ 정부의 공정위원장 공백 한달… “패싱은 아니겠죠”

•   조선비즈: 한국 올해 국가경쟁력 순위 27위...전년比 4단계 하락

•   조선비즈: [르포] 메밀값 900원인데 냉면은 1만6000원...서민음식 이젠 옛말

•   조선비즈: [세종풍향계] “직원 책임이라는 뜻?”…백운규 혐의 부인에 산업부 ‘부글부글’

•   조선비즈: 한은 금통위원 5명 중 4명 “인플레 고착화 우려…추가 금리인상 필요”

※   한국은행: 금융통화위원회 의사록(2022년도 제10차)(2022.5.26)

•   조선비즈: “신사업은 회사 밖에서 찾자”… 벤처투자 늘리는 건설사들

•   조선비즈: TSMC, 반도체 생산 가격 또 올린다… 스마트폰·전기차 가격 인상 ‘압박’

•   조선비즈: 한은 “팬데믹 끝나고 부실기업 줄도산 우려…도산제도 정비해야”

•   조선비즈: 보폭 넓히는 OLED, 이제는 모니터로… 삼성전자도 이르면 이달 출시

•   조선비즈: “인재가 없다”... 프로젝트별 단기 고용으로 눈 돌리는 中企

•   조선비즈: ‘메탄올 선박’ 발주 늘리는 선사… 韓·中 조선사 수주 경쟁

•   인베스트조선: 주가 고민 깊은 SK그룹, 계열사 대표 평가장 될 확대경영회의

•   인베스트조선: 한화그룹, 美 UAM 기업 '오버에어'에 1500억 투자

•   중앙(P1): CES 극찬한 '기저귀 혁신기술' 한국에선 1곳도 못쓴다, 왜 [규제 STOP]

•   동아(P1): [단독]박진 “한일 지소미아 빨리 정상화”

•   동아: “고민 커진 한은 7, 8월에 첫 빅스텝 밟을수도”

•   동아: 알바생의 귀환… 배달 접고 다시 카페로

•   동아: “과도한 상속세-중대재해처벌법 완화 필요”

•   문화: “월급쟁이만 봉”…‘15년 묵은’근소세 과세표준 탓 사실상 증세

•   한국: '택시 합승' 본격 시행…심야 택시난 구원투수로는 '글쎄'

•   한국: '서울 소각장' 입지 선정 벌써 4번째 연기… 쓰레기 대란 '째깍째깍'

•   국민: “지갑·車키 다 버려라”… 빨라지는 스마트폰 초연결 사회

•   국민: “자동차 부품 중국 의존도 심화… 글로벌 공급망 다변화 시급”

•   서울(P1): 한미 외교 “北핵실험 땐 군사대비태세 조정”

•   세계(P1): 국민 95% 코로나 항체 보유… “집단면역은 아냐”

•   한겨레: 대기업 국외 계열사, 미국 늘고 중국선 줄어…한화가 삼성 제쳐

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 2020년 대졸자 고용률 10년래 최저치

•   디지털타임스: 25~29세 구직자 75% "중기 취업 고려"

•   이데일리(P1): [단독]삼성전자 이사회 멤버 전문성 끌어올린다

•   이데일리: '재계 스탠다드' 삼성, BSM 도입…ESG의 'G' 강화+이사회 공백 최소화

•   이데일리: [ESF 2022]반기문 "기후위기 해결, 탄소배출 절감 외에 방법 없다"

•   이데일리: 현대건설, 차세대 원전 사업 박차.."원자력 벨류체인 구축"

•   이데일리: 인텔 차세대 CPU 양산 지연…속타는 삼성-SK

•   이데일리: 고꾸라지는 증시 분위기에도…스팩은 '후끈'

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국에서 8914명 확진…어제보다 241명 적어

•   연합: 한전, 내일 3분기 전기요금 인상안 제출…정부, 고물가 부담에 고민

•   연합: 반도체 인력난 사업체 대부분은 중소기업...부족인력 90% 몰려

•   전자신문(P1): LG전자, SoC·MCU 공개… 'AI 반도체' 각축전

•   전자신문: 대기업 76%, 공급망 ESG 관리…협력사로 확산중

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(J. Bradford DeLong): Why the US Federal Reserve’s Options Are Limited

•   Project Syndicate(Marion Laboure): Marion Laboure Says More…

•   Project Syndicate(Robert Skidelsky): Russia’s Path to Premodernity

•   Project Syndicate(Richard Haass): The Keys to the Kingdom

•   FT(Editorial Board): Boris Johnson’s Northern Ireland plan: dubious and counter-productive

•   FT(Martin Wolf): Policy errors of the 1970s echo in our times

•   FT(Janan Ganesh): Joe Biden is right to go to Saudi Arabia

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Recession, inflation or both?

•   FT(Ellen Zentner): The return of the workers’ economy

•   FT(Kana Inagaki): Is ‘Made in Japan’ back with the weaker yen?

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Incredible Sinking Yen

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Climate-Change Censorship: Phase Two

•   WSJ(Mickey D. Levy, Charles I. Plosser): Inflation Demands Bold Fed Action

•   NYT(Ben S. Bernanke): Inflation Isn’t Going to Bring Back the 1970s

•   NYT(Jagoda Marinic): Germany’s Chancellor Promised to Deter Putin. Then He Did Nothing.

•   WP(Editorial Board): The U.S. must oppose India’s rising Islamophobia

•   WP(David Ignatius): In Ukraine, is the balance tipping in Moscow’s favor? Not yet.

•   WP(Molly Roberts): Is AI sentient? Wrong question.

•   Bloomberg(Mihir Sharma): China's Belligerence Is Spoiling Its Chance to Lead Asia

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): The Fed Has No Choice But to Let This Bond Market Tantrum Rip

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): The ECB Needs a Bazooka to Close Italian Bond Spreads

•   Bloomberg(Bobby Ghosh): In US-Saudi Reset, the Kingdom Holds All the Cards

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Where Does the Fed's Jim Bullard Go for His Apology on Inflation?

•   Bloomberg(Gearoid Reidy, Daniel Moss): The Yen Won’t Be Moved by ‘90s Nostalgia

•   Fox Business(Brad Close): How Congress can help Main Street fight inflation